Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
I know a guy who is 11-0 ! (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter newteech
- Start date
Donsmith753
Footballguy
I'm 10-1, this is only my second year playing ff and I drafted Romo, Finley, VY,Matthews.
I don't think 11-0 is such a big deal.
I don't think 11-0 is such a big deal.
videoguy505
Footballguy
0.048828125%
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
It depends how many people you know.
Don Quixote
Footballguy
I have an 11-0 team too. I've seen it many times before. Typically followed by a loss in the playoffs.
newteech
Footballguy
Good one. You get an A in math.For the sake of this example, let's say the sample size is small.
Then so is the probability. Do I get an A also?
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
What is the league size?
by_the_sea_wannabe
:sj:
I knew a guy who once sharted himself
PhilLynott
Footballguy
I am 11-0 so far. The main reason is that I have the most points for and the fewest points against. The weeks that my team has crapped out is also the same week that my opponent went nuts up.
PhilLynott
Footballguy
I once knew a guy who sharted two girls and one cup.
ZWK
Footballguy
The chances that this particular guy would be 11-0 in this particular league are about 1/600, or 0.17%.
If every game was a coin flip, his chances of being 11-0 would be (1/2)^11 = 1/2048 = 0.049%. But if someone has a good team, which gives them a 60% chance of winning each game, then his chances of going 11-0 are (.6)^11 = 0.36%, which is over 7 times as likely. A great team, with a 2/3 chance of winning each game, would have a 1.16% chance of going 11-0. If you figure that there's a mix of teams, some average, some good or great, and some bad, then the chances of going undefeated average out to something bigger than .049%. I just ran some numbers (assuming that teams' win probability has a normal distribution with an average of 50% and a standard deviation of 8%) and found that it averaged out to about 1/600, so that's probably in the right ballpark.
Your chances of knowing one guy who is 11-0 in one of his leagues depend on how many guys you know and how many leagues they're in. If you know 10 guys who play fantasy football and they're in two leagues on average, then there's about a 20/600 = 1/30 = 3.3% chance that one of them will be 11-0 in one of their leagues.
If every game was a coin flip, his chances of being 11-0 would be (1/2)^11 = 1/2048 = 0.049%. But if someone has a good team, which gives them a 60% chance of winning each game, then his chances of going 11-0 are (.6)^11 = 0.36%, which is over 7 times as likely. A great team, with a 2/3 chance of winning each game, would have a 1.16% chance of going 11-0. If you figure that there's a mix of teams, some average, some good or great, and some bad, then the chances of going undefeated average out to something bigger than .049%. I just ran some numbers (assuming that teams' win probability has a normal distribution with an average of 50% and a standard deviation of 8%) and found that it averaged out to about 1/600, so that's probably in the right ballpark.
Your chances of knowing one guy who is 11-0 in one of his leagues depend on how many guys you know and how many leagues they're in. If you know 10 guys who play fantasy football and they're in two leagues on average, then there's about a 20/600 = 1/30 = 3.3% chance that one of them will be 11-0 in one of their leagues.
HustleBlood
Footballguy
my first season to play i went undefeated in regular season only to lose first game in playoffs and made $0. sucked balls and the fact i had shaun alexander in a nonppr league when he score muy muy tds was the reason
newteech
Footballguy
This is definitely NOT my team. I would be too worried about jinxing it with this thread.
I think he's talking about leagues that don't include aunts, uncles, cousins and teenage siblings.
DesmondBishop
Footballguy
That is very impressive, I have been in 3 32 team dynasty leagues over the past 8 years and not one team in any league has gone undefeated. So either the other owners are not that good or you have swindled some of those owners that every league has, they make several really bad league changing trades then quit. Regardless, that is an impressive win streak, would love to see the league and the other teams rosters.
fsufan
Footballguy
in 13 years(about 50 leagues) playing FF i have never seen a team go undefeated in the regular season and win the league SB. never seen a team go winless either
PhilLynott
Footballguy
I have been in fantasy leagues since 1995 and the same, I have NEVER seen a team with a perfect record.(Unbeaten or no wins.)
I know I'm probably stating the obvious, but people that go 11-0 have tremendous luck. I have a guy in my league that went 9-0 and is now 10-1, he picked Vick with last pick of the draft and had the first overall, obviously took CJ. His team is solid, however, he has by far the least amount of points scored against him. My team would have beaten him 3 times if we played every week. I guess what I'm trying to say is that it takes a combo of a good team and good luck.
we had an 0-16 team last year. First time I ever saw that. he is following it up with 3-8 so far this year. lost in a row. He had Mendy, Greene, RWilliams, Bowe, RMoss Floyd. MLewis Chargers and Vikes DLooked OK at the start of the seasonI am hoping he wins out. I needs his help
In real football, winning all the games in the regular season, the playoffs and the SB has only happened once in over 40 years. And that team was very good and had a good backup QB, but it also had some good fortune in winning a couple of games. In my 16-team non-dynasty league no team has ever won the first 11 games in 21 years.
chasyone
Footballguy
I played in a league where a guy won 26 in a row and won the title 4 years straight. He defeated me 2 years in a row and the league has since folded due to the guy who ran it had a child and didnt have the time to do it. The guy that won it 4 years in a row says the league folded because of him. LOL
thecardiackid
Footballguy
i almost pulled off the latter last year.
RE: the former, in another dynasty league, i did run the table @ 16-0 last season, but the streak ended in week 3 or so this year.
Largie
Footballguy
I'm 11-0. 10 team.BreesFoster/RiceHicks/Calvin/DJaxGatessome plug in's here and there for bye's/injuries....it's getting tougher to win though.
Neil Beaufort Zod
Footballguy
Would have been interesting to run two "perfect" teams in the same season.i almost pulled off the latter last year.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
bulger2holt
Footballguy
i'm 22-0 in my double header league. 12 team ppr. My draft went like this:
Calvin
Roddy
gates
Foster
Maclin
Bradshaw
Nicks
LT
Rothlisberger
Orton
Steelers
M.Lewis
Calvin
Roddy
gates
Foster
Maclin
Bradshaw
Nicks
LT
Rothlisberger
Orton
Steelers
M.Lewis
Fantaholic
Footballguy
I am 11-0 in my big money league, serious players. But, it doesn't mean Jack unless I go on to win the superbowl.
Mr. Know-It-All
Footballguy
I prefer a No-Leaf Clover.
wlwiles
Footballguy
You math guys...the odds are 50/50, it either happens or it doesn't
Donsmith753
Footballguy
It's not like that actuallyI think he's talking about leagues that don't include aunts, uncles, cousins and teenage siblings.
I'm honest enough to admit that I got lucky.It was an auction and I started bidding on Foster as my rb4, I went higher than I wanted but no1 else outbid me, with him and ADP I've been golden.In my 3rd league which is non-money and my least important, the leader was 9-0 until he met me last week! Now he is 9 and 1. I must thank him immensely for trading me Peyton Hillis for Anquan Boldin about 2.5 weeks ago...but then again, i should curse myself for not picking up Peyton Hillis at the beginning of the season like i did for my other fantasy team, lol.In either event, I think that there is a lot less luck in fantasy football than most think. We can think of a team that could have been legitimately drafted and created over the season through the Waiver Wire that would be highly favored to win each week, in which an undeafeted season is not unlikely. I actually think I could have had such a team if i didn't do a very stupid thing and only pickup players for 1 team and not for all teams. For instance, I picked up Mike Vick for 2 teams but didn't pick him up for the 3rd since Favre was the QB, lol. On that team I am now starting Jon Kitna and Matt Cassell, lol. I have Peyton Hillis on that team and Arian FOster and Tamme, now what if i also had Vick? As already stated on another team i picked up Peyton Hillis and didn't pick him up for all my teams. I learned the lesson very harshly, now I always pick up players for all teams if i pick them for 1 team.Basically I'm not surprised that a team is 11-0. While it is unlikely that someone is that good and lucky at the same time, I just think that luck plays a lot less of a role than most people believe. A friend of mine told me that fantasy football, unlike baseball and basketball is all about the draft. I disagree with this. In fantasy football, you can pick up absolute studs through waivers throughout the year and create yourself an absolute dominant team. BTW, i think a lot of the reason that i have picked up some studs through waivers throughout the year is due to the sharkpool. With all these folks in the sharkpool we have a great advantage over our fantasy teammates who don't have access to all this knowledge and leg work.
The real poll question for this thread should be: how many people actually believe the above post (if its not an incredibly subtle sarcastic comment). I'm willing to be it is .03$ x-o, double the e, minus the c, and...about .05% if that (i'm assuming a gullible and trusting man in the audience).
The real poll question for this thread should be: how many people actually believe the above post (if its not an incredibly subtle sarcastic comment). I'm willing to be it is .03$ x-o, double the e, minus the c, and...about .05% if that (i'm assuming a gullible and trusting man in the audience).
fsufan
Footballguy
you did almost pull a buc last yeari almost pulled off the latter last year.RE: the former, in another dynasty league, i did run the table @ 16-0 last season, but the streak ended in week 3 or so this year.
VaCatFan
Footballguy
I was 10-0 before week 11. I lost week 11 to a team who scored about 65 points more than his weekly average. Kinda glad I got the loss out of the way. Now hopefully I can steam-roll the rest of the way. I lost 176 to 174. I've seen several team go un-defeated during the regular season and lose in the playoffs. I've only seen 1 team go undefeated all the way through the superbowl. They hit every single sleeper pick that year and their normal drafting was great as well.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Billy Costigan Jr
Footballguy
In my dynasty league, we had a guy go 15-0 before losing to me in the Championship game 38.924 to 37.622 (1.322 pt difference).The key factors in the game were (1) his start WR Steve Smith-CAR getting ejected after I think 1 catch....and Brad Johnson having a great game for me to give me the come from behind win.This team was loaded and it was a perfect storm for my win.I consider his 15-0 very impressive because I consider this a league of knowledgeable FF players.Years ago I was in a free Sandbox league where I basically started the 199 Rams (Warner/Faulk/Bruce/PK/DF) among others, and rolled to a 16-0 record. That was fun, but I wouldn't consider it impressive in that group.
In my local league in 2005, we had an expansion team go 0-13.This was compounded by the fact that the other expansion team went 1st overall at 10-3.It think their records were affected by them drafting before/after each other at each pick.The 10-3 owner wasn't missing on his picks, and the 0-13 co-owners were making bad picks and leaving better players on the table for the 10-3 owner.That local league is a lot of fun, but there is a wide disparity in the FF level of the owners.Every year it seems, of the 12 teams, you've got 5 very good owners doing well, 1 very good owner getting beat down by injuries, one bad owner lucking into a great season, 5 middle of the road (5-7 wins every year) owners, and 3 owners just...there...
Similar threads
- Poll
