IDP Projections (1 Viewer)

[UTLonghorn31]

It is already Wednesday evening and we have yet to see any preliminary IDP projections. What is the holdup this week? Preliminary should be in by late Tuesday night with cleanups each day in regards to injury news, position changes, etc. If there is a holdup for a legitimate reason, it would be helpful to advise your playing clients of what is causing the delay rather than make them guess.

 

[Raymell McKigney]

geez there always has to be a complaining ##### bag

 

[Moniker]

geez there always has to be a complaining ##### bag

No reason for that. Longhorn is right. The preliminary should have been out yesterday.

 

[WKTSWAY]

geez there always has to be a complaining ##### bag

Most waivers are today...it would be good to have them in case there is someone you overlooked when submitting your waivers.

 

[UTLonghorn31]

geez there always has to be a complaining ##### bag

You know, if I just didn't show up to work and didn't contact my employer and/or ignored my clients paying me money to complete a project, who would be the #####? It is past 9 pm on the eastern coast now on Wednesday and it is only week 3 (burn out should not be in affect). Where are the projections or at minimum an update?

 

[Raymell McKigney]

geez there always has to be a complaining ##### bag

Most waivers are today...it would be good to have them in case there is someone you overlooked when submitting your waivers.

I agree but it was the tone of the OP that I didn't think was warranted. A lot of great work is done around here, no need to people to get all snippy when everything isn't handed to them on a platter.

 

[bleachercreacher]

Get used to it you all. It will be this way every week just like last year. Sometimes they will be out 5 hours before they are supposed to, and then the next week it's a day late.

 

[TheArchitect]

 

[UTLonghorn31]

The IDP projections and updates have been slow and VERY sloppy this week. First of all, there is Marvin Mitchell listed and he isn't even on the Saints roster. Then there are players that aren't playing still listed even though that information was available early in the week plus there are players not even listed that are starting this weekend in place of these injured players. The offensive projections came out early and have been getting updated on the news. It is Friday and all we have gotten is a lot of garbage from the IDP projections this week.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Marvin Mitchell looks likely to get some playing time in Miami with Dansby's groin problem. He just needed to have his team updated in our database (which I just did) but that's not a projections issue. The projections are assigned to the player ID.

Can you provide other examples of player projections you think are clearly incorrect?

Thanks.

 

[Playmakerz]

Can you provide other examples of player projections you think are clearly incorrect?

Ahtyba Rubin - showing zero.Pat Chung - no decrease due to hand operation.Sergio Brown - not in database; no increase due to Pat Chung's operation.

 

[Badm]

Kam Chancellor...Projections seem high this week against Arizona. He's been a beast, but this seems like a bad match up..

Not saying this is clearly wrong, just wondering your thoughts on the relatively high rating.. I have him much lower this week.

Thoughts?

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Can you provide other examples of player projections you think are clearly incorrect?

Ahtyba Rubin - showing zero.Pat Chung - no decrease due to hand operation.Sergio Brown - not in database; no increase due to Pat Chung's operation.

Rubin: projected for 9 fantasy points (DL 27)Chung: projected for 0 fantasy pointsBrown: I just added him to the database. Didn't realize he wasn't in there before.

 

[bleachercreacher]

Yet another week that these won't be out before anyones waiver runs.

 

[sloberknocker]

Why are there projection for players on byes this week

 

[Otter]

Do you guys really base your Waiver Adds and/or lineup based on the IDP projections here? I can understand using it as a guide, but the numbers in many of the projections are quite similar.

Every week, there will be some surprises which will inflate someone's value, but there are players every week that should be in the starting lineups. I don't understand why everyone gets uptight when they are not posted before waivers run in some leagues . I'll also agree that the projections are not always up-to-date.

 

[bleachercreacher]

Do you guys really base your Waiver Adds and/or lineup based on the IDP projections here? I can understand using it as a guide, but the numbers in many of the projections are quite similar.Every week, there will be some surprises which will inflate someone's value, but there are players every week that should be in the starting lineups. I don't understand why everyone gets uptight when they are not posted before waivers run in some leagues . I'll also agree that the projections are not always up-to-date.

Is it not nice to have another tool to look at when making waiver decisions? You pay for something that's promised to be out on time, but then it's only out on time about every other week. You can't see the problem with this?

 

[eaglezzz]

IDP rankings and Dynasty Rankings are 2 things that both lack for in season play at FBG's. Most people play in standard Redraft leagues and that is why they push getting those out as fast as possible.

 

[Otter]

Do you guys really base your Waiver Adds and/or lineup based on the IDP projections here? I can understand using it as a guide, but the numbers in many of the projections are quite similar.Every week, there will be some surprises which will inflate someone's value, but there are players every week that should be in the starting lineups. I don't understand why everyone gets uptight when they are not posted before waivers run in some leagues . I'll also agree that the projections are not always up-to-date.

Is it not nice to have another tool to look at when making waiver decisions? You pay for something that's promised to be out on time, but then it's only out on time about every other week. You can't see the problem with this?

No nothing wrong with it. My point is this... Take the DB projections for example. The difference between Norton's #2 ranked DB and his #46 ranked DB is ONE tackle. When you look at the rankings, you may think that #46 is so far behind the #2 guy... but in reality, it is only ONE tackle (at least according to Norton's projections). So, I wouldn't be worried about it too much because there's really not much difference. I wouldn't rely on the "ranking" when they are so close. With that said... No, there is nothing wrong with expecting to have the information for your waiver wire. I just wouldn't rely on it as being gospel because they are really ranked the same anyway.

 

[UTLonghorn31]

Another week of garbage... does Norton even look at the injury news when making projections? I am sorry to rail on him, but part of his salary is being paid by the subscriptions and he seems too lazy to make a set of daily updates while taking our payment for it. The offensive projections get updated all the time and it is not like it is expected for updates to be made ASAP, but a single set of daily updates reflecting injuries and guys that will be out and should have a 0 in projections is a fair expectation, especially with everyone having various waiver times during the week. It would be different if this was some sort of a free site.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Another week of garbage... does Norton even look at the injury news when making projections? I am sorry to rail on him, but part of his salary is being paid by the subscriptions and he seems too lazy to make a set of daily updates while taking our payment for it. The offensive projections get updated all the time and it is not like it is expected for updates to be made ASAP, but a single set of daily updates reflecting injuries and guys that will be out and should have a 0 in projections is a fair expectation, especially with everyone having various waiver times during the week. It would be different if this was some sort of a free site.

can you provide examples of the player projections you have a problem with?

 

[UTLonghorn31]

Another week of garbage... does Norton even look at the injury news when making projections? I am sorry to rail on him, but part of his salary is being paid by the subscriptions and he seems too lazy to make a set of daily updates while taking our payment for it. The offensive projections get updated all the time and it is not like it is expected for updates to be made ASAP, but a single set of daily updates reflecting injuries and guys that will be out and should have a 0 in projections is a fair expectation, especially with everyone having various waiver times during the week. It would be different if this was some sort of a free site.

can you provide examples of the player projections you have a problem with?

Rolando McClain and some of the Jaguars LBs are examples. Jarrad Page is another... and Andre Carter, Charles Johnson, and Greg Hardy have the same identical stats... why does he feel Carter is a top 7-10 DE this week?

 

[Gary Davenport]

Another week of garbage... does Norton even look at the injury news when making projections? I am sorry to rail on him, but part of his salary is being paid by the subscriptions and he seems too lazy to make a set of daily updates while taking our payment for it. The offensive projections get updated all the time and it is not like it is expected for updates to be made ASAP, but a single set of daily updates reflecting injuries and guys that will be out and should have a 0 in projections is a fair expectation, especially with everyone having various waiver times during the week. It would be different if this was some sort of a free site.

can you provide examples of the player projections you have a problem with?

Rolando McClain and some of the Jaguars LBs are examples. Jarrad Page is another... and Andre Carter, Charles Johnson, and Greg Hardy have the same identical stats... why does he feel Carter is a top 7-10 DE this week?

McClain hasn't been ruled out by any stretch, and in all honesty there's been very little info I've seen outside Rotospeculation about his status this week.Hardy and Johnson are currently DL5 and DL13 respectively in the scoring I use while doing my rankings, and are separated by all of 8.5 points in that scoring for the season.The Cowboys have allowed the 4th most fantasy points per game to opposing defensive linemen so far this season.Smith's concussion and the Page demotion weren't confirmed until this afternoon.Just sayin'.

 

[EvilEwoks]

Kam Chancellor...Projections seem high this week against Arizona. He's been a beast, but this seems like a bad match up.. Not saying this is clearly wrong, just wondering your thoughts on the relatively high rating.. I have him much lower this week.Thoughts?

Well now you know that was a great call! he was on fire last week...20 pts in my league...

 

[Jayrod]

Another week of garbage... does Norton even look at the injury news when making projections? I am sorry to rail on him, but part of his salary is being paid by the subscriptions and he seems too lazy to make a set of daily updates while taking our payment for it. The offensive projections get updated all the time and it is not like it is expected for updates to be made ASAP, but a single set of daily updates reflecting injuries and guys that will be out and should have a 0 in projections is a fair expectation, especially with everyone having various waiver times during the week. It would be different if this was some sort of a free site.

can you provide examples of the player projections you have a problem with?

Rolando McClain and some of the Jaguars LBs are examples. Jarrad Page is another... and Andre Carter, Charles Johnson, and Greg Hardy have the same identical stats... why does he feel Carter is a top 7-10 DE this week?

The Pats have changed things up a bit with Mayo out and Carter is being used more like a 4-3 end now. I picked him up last week anticipating this and he had his best week of the year last week.

 

[Tenacious]

geez there always has to be a complaining ##### bag

I'm starting to agree with this guy...It's Thursday, all of those situations are cloudy at best. He's not a crystal ball reader for crying out loud...

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Rolando McClain and some of the Jaguars LBs are examples. Jarrad Page is another... and Andre Carter, Charles Johnson, and Greg Hardy have the same identical stats... why does he feel Carter is a top 7-10 DE this week?

Have you listened to the weekly IDP podcast that John does with Jene and Bloom each week? I think if you listen to that, you'll see that these guys pay very close attention to all the IDP injury news and also look closely at the matchups.It was Wednesday when you posted your complaint. Very tough to know how a lot of injury situations are going to work out at that point. I don't think anyone knows if McClain or Daryl Smith will be able to play this week. Session sounds like he should be ok.Page news just came out yesterday.Why is giving three players the same projection for a single week considered "garbage"? When making projections, you normally do it team by team so I doubt the Carter projections had anything to do with the Panthers DE projections. For the season, Charles Johnson has 13/3/4 and Greg Hardy has 17/4/3. They look like they are putting up very comparable numbers to this point so I don't see why projecting them with similar numbers would warrant this type of criticism.

 

[John Norton]

I think some of you guys need to see your doctors and get some happy pills.

Let me fill you all in on how my week goes so you can all be "informed" and hopefully relax a little. On Sunday I watch as many games as is humanly possible. On Monday I work my regular job, and then go to my college science class for 3 hours (I am required to take classes toward my teaching degree so I can keep my day job). I then start working on the early projections while I am watching the Monday night game. Often I send in the first numbers late on Monday, well before a lot of the injury and other info become available. On Tuesday I work my day job then generally finish the early numbers if they have not already been sent. Then I spend a little (and I mean little) time with my family before sitting down to watch/scout replays of games that I missed on Sunday. I usually start working on the EOTG column late Tuesday. On Wednesday I work, go to class, work on my column, record the IDP podcast show, then finish my column (usually after midnight) and collapse. On Thursday I work, when I get home I have a little family time, then revisit the projections and update everything with injury news etc. On Friday and Saturday I try to catch up on all the other things I have neglected all week, including the assignments for my classes. If this schedule makes me a slacker who is "too lazy to update the projections" then I guess I am just a lazy SOB who is giving you nothing for your money.

I understand that the offensive numbers are updated pretty much daily. What you all need to understand is that Footballguys IS Dodds fulltime job. The company is what he does for a living. I update things on my spreadsheet as I see them during the week and send updates on Thursday and Friday evenings after the injury reports come out. If I get a chance I will send them more often going forward. Meanwhile, you all see the daily news as it breaks. If you are FBG subscribers you are obviously well informed and Knowledgeable enough to know what effect that news will have. Feel free to use your own brains as that feature is available 24/7 and comes at no extra charge.

All kidding and smart @#$ remarks aside, I appreciate all feedback, both positive and negative. I will make it a point going forward to drop an update on Wednesday whenever possible. The FBG community and especially our IDP community, is full of the best and most Knowledgeable fantasy owners on the planet. You guys are great and I/we do very much appreciate you and your opinions. Best of luck to you all and thanks for the input.

 

[John Norton]

geez there always has to be a complaining ##### bag

I'm starting to agree with this guy...It's Thursday, all of those situations are cloudy at best. He's not a crystal ball reader for crying out loud...

I just wanted to say thank you to Tenacious and all of those who came to my defense. I do appreciate the level headed thinking and the support. As my schedule tells, I generally don't have a lot of time to browse the message boards. However, if there is a specific question any of you have about something, someone (usually Jene or Aaron) will let me know about it so I can come address it. There is one earlier statement that I do want to comment on. Someone was pointing out that there were three players projected with the same number and stating that this was somehow "garbage". Do you really think that no two players have the same numbers in a given week? Or that no two players can have the same projected value in a given week? Are you really going to complain about that? In the words of the ESPN crew C'Mon Man!

 

[scientist]

John - thanks for all of your hard work. The stuff you and Jene do here is, in my opinion, the most valuable fantasy content available due to both the uniqueness and quality of the product. Last year I did all of my holiday shopping with my IDP winnings and I have you guys and the rest of the IDP staff to thank for that. This year I'm in first place in 3 leagues and it's not even close. I literally crank the handle on the FBG machine and money comes out the other side. It's beautiful. This year when my wife thanks me for her Christmas gifts, I'll tell her to thank John and Jene.

 

[Jene Bramel]

This year when my wife thanks me for her Christmas gifts, I'll tell her to thank John and Jene.

at this.
-----

I just want to echo something in what John and Aaron have said. While we're more than willing to accept criticism when we give poor advice or defend some of our more questionable calls, I think it's harsh to suggest that we're lazy or imply that we're intentionally leaving simple and easy-to-research factors out of our analysis. I'd argue that each of us, in fact, tend to go well beyond those factors in our work.All of us are happy to address concerns about the projections, rankings, something we've written or recorded, etc on the Forum, by PM, by email, on Twitter, etc. Chances are, if something seems well off to you, it will seem that way to everyone else as well -- including us. If not, then we're usually able to give a quick explanation and defense of our opinion.

We're continually looking at ways to improve our communication and database function on the IDP side. Doug Drinen has allowed us near-admin like access to the player input side in recent years, which has cut back on issues we've had with depth chart classifications, etc. But we're still working on a perfect process to insure that John's numbers matchup perfectly with the player IDs every single time. We're still working on ways for John and David to update the IDP projections more frequently and accurately. And it's not something we take lightly.

We fully realize and appreciate that we've got the smartest and most demanding readers around. That's an earned trust. Don't hesitate to call us out when needed.

 

[Badm]

John,

Just my perspective on the projections. The minute they come out on Tuesday, I check them out, pretty thoroughly. I know, they are in their most basic form, mainly because not enough information is available yet to make changes. Thats how I look at it. And I am good with that, I don't think you can do any better. The sad part is I won't look at them again the rest of the week. Its not that I don't want to, its that I don't know what you've reviewed/changed or even thought about as more information presents itself during the week. I've been burned in the past, making the assumption all projections are reviewed each day. (I know crazy assumption, but whatever). As a result, I use it on Tuesday and thats it. So basically the work you put forth the remainder of the week, is thrown away, atleast from my method of using projections.

Ideally, it would be awesome if FBG could do the entire evaluation of every single projection each day (yes, I am nuts), but in the interim it would be extremely helpful if you could add comments on the projections that were changed, similar to the offense projections. If there isn't enough time for comments, a simple color code or columns, some indication that you changed something would be awesome. Then I know what you have changed and don't have to assume or track your changes separately, because unfortunately I have a full time day job too(thats why I pay for the service). I've seen other sites use arrows in a separate column indicating if projections have been moved up or down. Thats just as good.

Just my 2 cents

 

[Jayrod]

John,Just my perspective on the projections. The minute they come out on Tuesday, I check them out, pretty thoroughly. I know, they are in their most basic form, mainly because not enough information is available yet to make changes. Thats how I look at it. And I am good with that, I don't think you can do any better. The sad part is I won't look at them again the rest of the week. Its not that I don't want to, its that I don't know what you've reviewed/changed or even thought about as more information presents itself during the week. I've been burned in the past, making the assumption all projections are reviewed each day. (I know crazy assumption, but whatever). As a result, I use it on Tuesday and thats it. So basically the work you put forth the remainder of the week, is thrown away, atleast from my method of using projections.Ideally, it would be awesome if FBG could do the entire evaluation of every single projection each day (yes, I am nuts), but in the interim it would be extremely helpful if you could add comments on the projections that were changed, similar to the offense projections. If there isn't enough time for comments, a simple color code or columns, some indication that you changed something would be awesome. Then I know what you have changed and don't have to assume or track your changes separately, because unfortunately I have a full time day job too(thats why I pay for the service). I've seen other sites use arrows in a separate column indicating if projections have been moved up or down. Thats just as good. Just my 2 cents

Something that would be cool would be a date/time stamp of when they were last updated. That way we know how current the info was.

 

[J Giles Band]

John - thanks for all of your hard work. The stuff you and Jene do here is, in my opinion, the most valuable fantasy content available due to both the uniqueness and quality of the product. Last year I did all of my holiday shopping with my IDP winnings and I have you guys and the rest of the IDP staff to thank for that. This year I'm in first place in 3 leagues and it's not even close. I literally crank the handle on the FBG machine and money comes out the other side. It's beautiful. This year when my wife thanks me for her Christmas gifts, I'll tell her to thank John and Jene.

This.

John and Jene in particular, are quite frankly the two best at what they do and there isn't a close second at FBG's or in the industry as a whole. You could follow Jene's recommendations blindly and your IDP's would be the best in your league. I've found no one else in the business who puts in the time and effort as Jene, not to mention has the ability to discern from the tons of information what is relevant and important.

As Jene suggests, there are certainly anomolies each week in the IDP projections (and the projections as a whole) and times where they may simply overlook an injury situation. And I have no problem with someone calling the guys on the carpet when they see something that is out of whack. But I'm willing to bet if you alert them to any oversight in a given week they address it. Pay or not, the tone of the Longhorn fan was a bit much. Saying that, Texas did get housed this past weekend so maybe that had something to do with it.

For me projections are nothing more than a guide, and are extremely, extremely difficult to predict accurately. I don't expect them to be all that accurate quite frankly. It's the general ranking I pay more attention to. I place even more emphasis on their justifications when they provide notes (like Bloom does in his offensive projections) or in their articles (Reading the Defense and Eyes of the Guru).

Keep up the good work guys.

 

[J Giles Band]

Ideally, it would be awesome if FBG could do the entire evaluation of every single projection each day (yes, I am nuts), but in the interim it would be extremely helpful if you could add comments on the projections that were changed, similar to the offense projections. If there isn't enough time for comments, a simple color code or columns, some indication that you changed something would be awesome. Then I know what you have changed and don't have to assume or track your changes separately, because unfortunately I have a full time day job too(thats why I pay for the service). I've seen other sites use arrows in a separate column indicating if projections have been moved up or down. Thats just as good.

Just my 2 cents

 

[John Norton]

Good feedback and good points. Our current arrangement doesn't allow me to add comments or color codes and I don't post the updates directly which can sometimes be an issue since I can only control when they are sent and not when you all can see them. I will however, take these ideas to the brass and see how hard it would be to make something happen that would improve the feature. Even if it is something as simple a green means a player has moved up, blue means he is injured or questionable and red means he has moved down or something negative has happened. I will also check into the possibility of being able to post the updates myself in the future. For now I can tell you that I submit updates on Thurdsy and Friday evenings every week. David is usually pretty good about posting them quickly so at least you know when to expect updated numbers. As I mentioned earlier, I will try to get an update in on Wednesday also.

 

[HoTnickZ]

The Reading the defense analysis, for one, is simply amazing. But on the whole, tremendous job.

It's amazing that this can be done on a part-time basis at all.

 

[chook]

Knowing the workload you guys have outside FBG means it's wrong to expect the world and then some for $25 a year. We all work overtime, get sick, travel interstate etc at times which means side projects - even those that pay - are forced to take a slight backseat.

I guess the one thing I have really asked for more of is some in-season dynasty rankings (IDP & offense). Obviously things don't move as fast in the dynasty world as they do redraft, but maybe an update every four weeks to give a guide on players to be targeted (and assess in trade offers) would suffice. I understand that's probably a bit too much to expect, considering Dodds hasn't even got any dynasty offense rankings up there since the season begun (FBG's have really dropped the ball on this one IMO).

As John mentioned above, nothing beats researching it yourself, but sometimes there's not a heap out there on particular players and unless you've had the chance to review the games (which so many of us don't), reading a respected ranking is an ideal starting point.

In a perfect world, I'd also love it if there was a transcript of the IDP roundtable, as I'm rarely able to listen to the podcasts.

Finally, I hope the illness is coming along well John.

Cheers,

Chook