IDP - Trend Analysis (1 Viewer)

[RAPTURE]

With apologies for the mod edit, it has been brought to my attention that this post is an excerpt from an article posted (free content) on another site. In the interest of giving full credit to the original author, here is a link to the full text of the article. JB

Year: 2003 2004 2005 2006

CB in Top 20 DB’s 14 14 13 13

CB in Top 50 DB’s 23 32 26 29

In fact, in 2006 7 out of the Top 10 were Cornerbacks.

One assertion that is commonly made is that teams that play a Cover2 defense have Defensive Backs that record more tackles and interceptions than in other defenses (e.g. 3-4 or basic 4-3 with bump and run CB's).

If we look at the Top 10 in 2006 there may be some truth to that because defensive backs from the Bucs ( R Barber, J Phillips), da Bears ( C Tillman) and Vikings ( A Winfield) are present. But that is about as far as that assertion goes-since most teams play a Cover2 at least a portion of the time, it is difficult to make a conclusion, based on that type of defense, and then try to draft a team using that.

Last year we made the assertion that Rookies rarely crack the Top 20, and this year was no exception. Only one rookie DB ended the year in the Top 20- Richard Marshall from Carolina. Fantasy football owners recognize that rookie DB's are commonly picked on by NFL offenses, so that in itself means their opportunities to make tackles, pass deflections, and interceptions are increased. Historically, they do not fare well in their rookie years in EFS scoring. In fact the only other rookies in the Top 50 are Daven Holly Cle at #39 and Dawan Landry at #46. What does this tell us? We can make a couple of conclusions, based upon the historical data and the 2006 data:

1. Rarely do rookie DB's make a scoring impact in EFS during their rookie seasons.

2. Therefore, do not draft DB's very early in EFS Drafts next Spring!!

3. Be aware that in their 2nd seasons these DB's can find their way into the upper reaches of the Scoring Table. In 2006, 2nd year DB's of note are: Darrent Williams Den at #18, PacMan Jones Tenn at #14, Carlos Rogers Was at #25, Antrel Rolle Ariz at #27, and O Atogwe at #38.

Another interesting point about these DB's is that several of them serve as kick returners for their teams (e.g. Darrent Williams, PacMan Jones, Terrence McGee Buf #21, and Justin Miller NYJ #57). One could argue that their appearance at these positions is enhanced by their additional return duties where they are credited with points from their return yardage and any TD's they score. Ike Taylor was a prized Cornerback for two years when he was a starting CB and also returning kicks. In 2006 his relative 'worth' diminished as he relinquished his return duties and eventually lost his starting CB job. So a word of caution here-once these prized DB's become starters, they may lose their return jobs and therefore, their relative scoring proficiency may decline!

Every year injuries hit every NFL position, it is a fact of life in the NFL and in Fantasy Football, so depth is always an issue at these positions! Injuries to stars always hit hard and adversely impact rosters-in 2006 some examples were Mike Brown Chi, Troy Polamalu PItt, and rookie Roman Harper NO.

In 2006 some DB's drafted early that have opportunities to excel in 2007 and beyond include M Huff Oak, D Whitner Buf, and Ko Simpson Buf (note these are all Safeties!). Some CB's are the aforementionned R Marshall and D Holly.

Every year their are surprises in the list of DB scorers; in 2006 the most prominent were Chris Hope Tenn #3, Charles Woodson GB #9, Jermaine Phllips TB #11, Sean Jones Clev #13, and Anthony Henry Dal #12. The real issue here concerns whether or not these players can maintain these relative rankings in future seasons-if recent history is any indication, most of them will not!

So what can we take away from this? The conclusions we have listed in previous reviews remain valid today, but lets generalize for a couple of situations:

a. Original Draft, building a roster: fill your skill positions on offense first: QB, RB, WR and after having built those, with some reasonable depth, then begin to fill your Defensive roster. DB's probably will not get drafted much earlier than rounds 5 or 6-any earlier could mean your are limiting your offensive potential.

b. Rookie Draft: don't draft Cornerbacks or Safeties much before the 3rd round, or even 4th round. IF by some chance you do, then be prepared to sit on that player for at least one season before he can become a serviceable starter for your team.

RAPTURE

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Coincides with the enforcing of the stricter rules against DBs.

Can you telll us if there were more passes thrown and/or completed from the 03/04 to the 05/06 years?

 

[Biabreakable]

I believe Kerry Rhodes was at least top 20 if not top 10 in most scoring systems as a rookie SS.

Witner played well but not well enough to be top 20. Harper was playing well early in the season before being injured. He might have been able to finish top 20 if healthy.

I agree that with the corners you ushualy need to wait on them a year before they are startable. I used Marshall pretty often in 2006. I think Marshall's season was helped by the poor play of the Carolina offense as much as him being picked on because hes a rookie. He came up with many interceptions. He may have given oposing teams a bad enough taste in thier mouths that he wont be tested as often in year 2.. but we'll see about that. I expect the Carolina offense to improve anyways so I expect a decline from him.

Interesting study and good question from BigSteelThrill. I have not checked for 2006 yet but IIRC passing increased by 5% overall in 2004 then receded somewhat in 2005.

Just looked it up.

2003 16493 total pass attempts 9695 total pass completions

2004 16354 total pass attempts 9772 total pass completions

2005 16465 total pass attempts 9790 total pass completions

2006 16388 total pass attempts 9796 total pass completions

So pass attempts have been fluctuating and were actualy the highest in 2003. But pass completions have been increasing with the biggest jump happening in 2004. A 1% increase in total completions. That increase has held steady and risen slightly since enforcement of the no chuck rule.

Total yardage increased by 4.8% from 2003 to 2004 but then fell back again in 2005 by over 3000 total yards. So about 100 total yards/team/year. The 2006 yardage has held pretty steady with 2005.

 

[Jene Bramel]

One assertion that is commonly made is that teams that play a Cover2 defense have Defensive Backs that record more tackles and interceptions than in other defenses (e.g. 3-4 or basic 4-3 with bump and run CB's). If we look at the Top 10 in 2006 there may be some truth to that because defensive backs from the Bucs (R Barber, J Phillips), da Bears ( C Tillman) and Vikings ( A Winfield) are present. But that is about as far as that assertion goes-since most teams play a Cover2 at least a portion of the time, it is difficult to make a conclusion, based on that type of defense, and then try to draft a team using that.

Nice post.I've argued very strongly that owners should look to teams that play a significant amount of Cover-2/Tampa-2 when evaluating corners in standard dynasty leagues. By scheme, these players get more tackle opportunities and thus tend to be the more consistent week-to-week and year-to-year performers.In addition to the six teams that use the Tampa-2 as their base defensive scheme, the Broncos and Chiefs also used Cover-2 a significant percentage of the time in 2006 -- or 25% of the NFL (8 of 32). In 2005, TB, IND, CHI, NYJ, and DEN used significant amounts of Cover-2 -- or 15% of the NFL (5 of 32). As RAPTURE mentions, there were others who used Cover-2 looks but for the sake of argument we'll use these groups of teams for the below look at 2005/2006 statlines.)In 2006, in leagues that score tackles slightly better than big plays, two of the top five (40%), five of the top ten (50%) and ten of the top twenty (50%) tackling corners played in Cover-2 schemes.In 2005, three of the top five (60%), three of the top ten (30%) and five of the top twenty (25%) tackling corners played in Cover-2 schemes.In both of the past two seasons, Cover-2 corners were represented in the top ten and twenty nearly twice as often as would be expected by random distribution. I'm no statistics guy, but that's likely to be a statistically significant result even with the puny sample sizes. More importantly, it's the same Cover-2 characters who show up at the top of the lists in both seasons -- eg. Tillman, Barber, Bailey, Law.Still, it's important to realize that every Cover-2 CB is not guaranteed to be a fantasy force. Not every corner is physical or willing enough in run support to take advantage of the extra opportunity provided in a Cover-2 scheme. You can lead Nathan Vasher and Jason David to the point of attack but you can't make them wrap up. But if you find a guy who'll stick his head in there and make a hit in a scheme that uses a lot of Cover-2, he's a near lock to be in the top third of tacklers among all starting corners.The Cover-2 scheme doesn't necessarily increase interception opportunity for corners, though. The stats aren't conclusive over the past two seasons. In 2006, only two starting Cover-2 corners had more than four interceptions (Ricky Manning, Jr did as a nickel back). In 2005, six starting Cover-2 corners had more than four.I think it's more likely that the guys with elite recovery speed, good man or zone coverage instincts and/or superior ball skills -- those who fit their particular coverage calls the best -- make plays. I do think it is likely that a Cover-2 safety or linebacker has an increased opportunity at making interceptions. But again, the players that can take advantage of this are those with above-average coverage skills.As always, roster management is scoring system and risk tolerance dependent. But I'm still looking for three things in a fantasy corner. Opportunity (scheme inflates chance to make plays, player lining up opposite a player other QBs won't throw at, rookie corner), willingness to support to run and consistently make tackles, and solid ball/coverage skills to add the big play (PD/INT) element.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

I believe Kerry Rhodes was at least top 20 if not top 10 in most scoring systems as a rookie SS.Witner played well but not well enough to be top 20. Harper was playing well early in the season before being injured. He might have been able to finish top 20 if healthy.I agree that with the corners you ushualy need to wait on them a year before they are startable. I used Marshall pretty often in 2006. I think Marshall's season was helped by the poor play of the Carolina offense as much as him being picked on because hes a rookie. He came up with many interceptions. He may have given oposing teams a bad enough taste in thier mouths that he wont be tested as often in year 2.. but we'll see about that. I expect the Carolina offense to improve anyways so I expect a decline from him.Interesting study and good question from BigSteelThrill. I have not checked for 2006 yet but IIRC passing increased by 5% overall in 2004 then receded somewhat in 2005.Just looked it up.2003 16493 total pass attempts 9695 total pass completions2004 16354 total pass attempts 9772 total pass completions2005 16465 total pass attempts 9790 total pass completions2006 16388 total pass attempts 9796 total pass completionsSo pass attempts have been fluctuating and were actualy the highest in 2003. But pass completions have been increasing with the biggest jump happening in 2004. A 1% increase in total completions. That increase has held steady and risen slightly since enforcement of the no chuck rule.Total yardage increased by 4.8% from 2003 to 2004 but then fell back again in 2005 by over 3000 total yards. So about 100 total yards/team/year. The 2006 yardage has held pretty steady with 2005.

Thank you for the info. Good stuff.Does it go farther? ...and more passes towards WRs and at the CBs because of the rules and less towards TEs/RBs and the LBs S's? Guess it doesnt matter when push comes to shove. If CBs are scoring more/better, you just have to learn to make the proper adjustments and deal with it.PS: Our scoring had Kerry Rodes #23 (out of all DBs) two years ago and #4 this year, using 17 regular season games.

 

[Biabreakable]

As far as which players on offense have increased catches in that 1% it has been mostly TEs actualy who have benifited the most from the enforcement of the no chuck rule. So one would think we would see a jump in tackles for Lbers and Safeties more because of this.

However defensive adjustments to this ruling have been teams using larger cornerbacks who are better tacklers at expense of coverage skills in some cases throughout the league. Defenses have been adjusting to it by conceding that recievers are going to make more catches and they need corners who can tackle better than players being used before. The 2004 class of corners provided several players to fit this shift in philosophy and that has continued in following drafts. That dynamic still continues. I think the numbers reflect this somewhat subtle change in defensive philosophy and the personel teams employ.

Cover corners such as Smoot ect. who are poor tacklers are being phased out. So that is somthing to be mindful of when evaluating cornerback prospects.

Size isn't everything when it comes to this. Winfield is an example of that. But overall I think starting cornerbacks have become bigger over the past 5 years than they were before. A 6' cornerback used to be a rare thing not that long ago with most of them being 5'9"-5'10" with a lot of speed and coverage ability. I would have to look again but I think most teams have a 6' cornerback starting for them. They still have a lot of speed but teams have been foregoing the pure cover corners for more physical players overall.

The Falcons cornerback Hall has been one of the exceptions that comes to mind. He is more of a pure cover corner.