If you draft a rookie RB for situation (1 Viewer)

[shader]

In a few of my rookie drafts, as well as other drafts, I'm seeing an interesting trend. Guys like Helu and Delone Carter are getting WAY over-drafted. Now if you like these guys as players, then by all means draft them.

But if you are drafting because you think they could have a chance to immediately start...you are making a huge mistake.

Don't think for a second the Colts wouldn't be interested in Deangelo, Reggie Bush, or some other free agent RB. You think their problems are solved because of Delone Carter? No chance. So people drafting him absurdly early in rookie drafts will have egg all over their faces in a few months when free agency starts.

Just a little advice to people drafting rookies in dynasty:

ALWAYS CHOOSE TALENT OVER SITUATION

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

In a few of my rookie drafts, as well as other drafts, I'm seeing an interesting trend. Guys like Helu and Delone Carter are getting WAY over-drafted. Now if you like these guys as players, then by all means draft them.

But if you are drafting because you think they could have a chance to immediately start...you are making a huge mistake.

Don't think for a second the Colts wouldn't be interested in Deangelo, Reggie Bush, or some other free agent RB. You think their problems are solved because of Delone Carter? No chance. So people drafting him absurdly early in rookie drafts will have egg all over their faces in a few months when free agency starts.

Just a little advice to people drafting rookies in dynasty:

ALWAYS CHOOSE TALENT OVER SITUATION

Use of Delone Carter is a bad example because the Colts problems were on the OL. They drafted two good ones in the first and second round, so some combination of what they have (Addai, Brown, and now Carter) may be better than you think in 2011.

 

[Go deep]

In a few of my rookie drafts, as well as other drafts, I'm seeing an interesting trend. Guys like Helu and Delone Carter are getting WAY over-drafted. Now if you like these guys as players, then by all means draft them.

But if you are drafting because you think they could have a chance to immediately start...you are making a huge mistake.

Don't think for a second the Colts wouldn't be interested in Deangelo, Reggie Bush, or some other free agent RB. You think their problems are solved because of Delone Carter? No chance. So people drafting him absurdly early in rookie drafts will have egg all over their faces in a few months when free agency starts.

Just a little advice to people drafting rookies in dynasty:

ALWAYS CHOOSE TALENT OVER SITUATION

Use of Delone Carter is a bad example because the Colts problems were on the OL. They drafted two good ones in the first and second round, so some combination of what they have (Addai, Brown, and now Carter) may be better than you think in 2011.

Agreed, which makes DBrown a good buy low.

 

[Multiple Scores]

I agree with the point that the colts line should be improved. However the fact remains that 91% of 4/5th round RBs are busts. Taking a guy with that bust rate is silly in the mid/late first round of drafts. I would take a chance at a lottery ticket with carter over helu though but never in the first round.

In a few of my rookie drafts, as well as other drafts, I'm seeing an interesting trend. Guys like Helu and Delone Carter are getting WAY over-drafted. Now if you like these guys as players, then by all means draft them.

But if you are drafting because you think they could have a chance to immediately start...you are making a huge mistake.

Don't think for a second the Colts wouldn't be interested in Deangelo, Reggie Bush, or some other free agent RB. You think their problems are solved because of Delone Carter? No chance. So people drafting him absurdly early in rookie drafts will have egg all over their faces in a few months when free agency starts.

Just a little advice to people drafting rookies in dynasty:

ALWAYS CHOOSE TALENT OVER SITUATION

Use of Delone Carter is a bad example because the Colts problems were on the OL. They drafted two good ones in the first and second round, so some combination of what they have (Addai, Brown, and now Carter) may be better than you think in 2011.

 

[shader]

In a few of my rookie drafts, as well as other drafts, I'm seeing an interesting trend. Guys like Helu and Delone Carter are getting WAY over-drafted. Now if you like these guys as players, then by all means draft them.

But if you are drafting because you think they could have a chance to immediately start...you are making a huge mistake.

Don't think for a second the Colts wouldn't be interested in Deangelo, Reggie Bush, or some other free agent RB. You think their problems are solved because of Delone Carter? No chance. So people drafting him absurdly early in rookie drafts will have egg all over their faces in a few months when free agency starts.

Just a little advice to people drafting rookies in dynasty:

ALWAYS CHOOSE TALENT OVER SITUATION

Use of Delone Carter is a bad example because the Colts problems were on the OL. They drafted two good ones in the first and second round, so some combination of what they have (Addai, Brown, and now Carter) may be better than you think in 2011.

I disagree. Delone Carter is a perfect example. You are making my point for me. Now listen, if someone is a huge Delone Carter fan, I don't have a problem with it. But if Carter goes to a bad team or situation, he doesnt' get drafted as early as he is. The fact that he went to the Colts is making people salivate over him. It's all about situation with Carter, which is why I'm seeing him go in the 1st round of some drafts.

He was an average RB to me before the draft and that didn't change once he went to the Colts. Obviously you move him up a LITTLE bit, but all it takes is a hotshot free agent, and Carter is on the bench quickly.

 

[mcintyre1]

I've always loved Helu for his physical skills and determination as a player (3* unheralded recruit to #4 all-time rusher at Nebraska), but I agree that he is being way over-drafted. I had to take him at 1.12 in my Zealots league, and that was 4 spots behind his ADP. That's just crazy for a 4th round RB that went to a team with a quality young RB already leading the way. Do I have hopes that he'll take the starting job and run with it? Of course. But those were mid 2nd - early 3rd round hopes, not late first.

From the lips of Helu's biggest proponent on these boards:

Buyer beware. Let someone else draft him above his value and take a falling WR.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

but all it takes is a hotshot free agent, and Carter is on the bench quickly.

You could say that about half the RBs in the league.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I've always loved Helu for his physical skills and determination as a player (3* unheralded recruit to #4 all-time rusher at Nebraska), but I agree that he is being way over-drafted. I had to take him at 1.12 in my Zealots league, and that was 4 spots behind his ADP. That's just crazy for a 4th round RB that went to a team with a quality young RB already leading the way. Do I have hopes that he'll take the starting job and run with it? Of course. But those were mid 2nd - early 3rd round hopes, not late first.

From the lips of Helu's biggest proponent on these boards:

Buyer beware. Let someone else draft him above his value and take a falling WR.

Interesting post. I am surprised you aren't more convinced Helu's the best RB on their roster. No veteran in WAS really qualifies as a "quality RB".

 

[jacobo_moses]

Shader I agree with you. I traded to get a rookie pick so I could choose between Kendall Hunter, Delone Carter, and DeMarco Murray. And I took talent over situation (Kendall Hunter). I mean especially if it is Dynasty. I mean remember MJD share carries with Fred Taylor. MJD was still productive. Now please don't think I'm comparing Frank Gore to Fred Taylor. I think Carter is going a little higher then he should be.

 

[loose circuits]

Shader I agree with you. I traded to get a rookie pick so I could choose between Kendall Hunter, Delone Carter, and DeMarco Murray. And I took talent over situation (Kendall Hunter). I mean especially if it is Dynasty. I mean remember MJD share carries with Fred Taylor. MJD was still productive. Now please don't think I'm comparing Frank Gore to Fred Taylor. I think Carter is going a little higher then he should be.

actually MJD was behind Greg Jones for a bit that 1st year as well. Jones had played well at RB the year before and put up a few good games if I remember correctlyBottomline is the entire rookie draft is a gamble and more so starting in the 2nd half of rookie drafts. Don't know that Washington won't sign a free agent WR to start next to Armstrong which would take Hankerson's reps away. Torrey Smith also has a bust factor. The WR's and RB's in that range all have risk

 

[Donnybrook]

In a few of my rookie drafts, as well as other drafts, I'm seeing an interesting trend. Guys like Helu and Delone Carter are getting WAY over-drafted. Now if you like these guys as players, then by all means draft them.

But if you are drafting because you think they could have a chance to immediately start...you are making a huge mistake.

Don't think for a second the Colts wouldn't be interested in Deangelo, Reggie Bush, or some other free agent RB. You think their problems are solved because of Delone Carter? No chance. So people drafting him absurdly early in rookie drafts will have egg all over their faces in a few months when free agency starts.

Just a little advice to people drafting rookies in dynasty:

ALWAYS CHOOSE TALENT OVER SITUATION

Don't think the Colts want to spend a large amount of money on the position. Bigger fish to fry.

 

[mcintyre1]

I've always loved Helu for his physical skills and determination as a player (3* unheralded recruit to #4 all-time rusher at Nebraska), but I agree that he is being way over-drafted. I had to take him at 1.12 in my Zealots league, and that was 4 spots behind his ADP. That's just crazy for a 4th round RB that went to a team with a quality young RB already leading the way. Do I have hopes that he'll take the starting job and run with it? Of course. But those were mid 2nd - early 3rd round hopes, not late first.

From the lips of Helu's biggest proponent on these boards:

Buyer beware. Let someone else draft him above his value and take a falling WR.

Interesting post. I am surprised you aren't more convinced Helu's the best RB on their roster. No veteran in WAS really qualifies as a "quality RB".

I tend to be higher on Torain than most. He's no chopped liver, like everyone else seems to think. He doesn't have great speed, but he runs with a lot of power and makes good use of what blocking he gets. That's not to be overlooked. I guess my feelings on Torain are this:

He's produced some really great games with (what I consider to be) a pretty mediocre offensive line. It may not be pretty, but you can't argue with results. I think it will be much harder to supplant him from that starting role than is generally believed. I have no doubt that Helu is more physically talented than Torain but, as we all know, that doesn't necessarily mean a damn thing. If Torain had been even a 2nd round pick a couple of years ago, he'd be considered a great sleeper and a dynasty buy with his production so far.

Also, let's not forget, Shanahan really likes Torain. When they drafted him in Denver, Shanahan compared him to Terrell Davis (boy does he like to say that, huh?), and they even went so far as to keep him on the 53 man roster despite surgery that would keep him out for at least half the season. They believed he would be able to come back mid season and produce for them.

 

[Go deep]

I've always loved Helu for his physical skills and determination as a player (3* unheralded recruit to #4 all-time rusher at Nebraska), but I agree that he is being way over-drafted. I had to take him at 1.12 in my Zealots league, and that was 4 spots behind his ADP. That's just crazy for a 4th round RB that went to a team with a quality young RB already leading the way. Do I have hopes that he'll take the starting job and run with it? Of course. But those were mid 2nd - early 3rd round hopes, not late first.

From the lips of Helu's biggest proponent on these boards:

Buyer beware. Let someone else draft him above his value and take a falling WR.

Interesting post. I am surprised you aren't more convinced Helu's the best RB on their roster. No veteran in WAS really qualifies as a "quality RB".

I tend to be higher on Torain than most. He's no chopped liver, like everyone else seems to think. He doesn't have great speed, but he runs with a lot of power and makes good use of what blocking he gets. That's not to be overlooked. I guess my feelings on Torain are this:

He's produced some really great games with (what I consider to be) a pretty mediocre offensive line. It may not be pretty, but you can't argue with results. I think it will be much harder to supplant him from that starting role than is generally believed. I have no doubt that Helu is more physically talented than Torain but, as we all know, that doesn't necessarily mean a damn thing. If Torain had been even a 2nd round pick a couple of years ago, he'd be considered a great sleeper and a dynasty buy with his production so far.

For me, Its not so much that, as it is getting cut by the Broncos and then he needed Larry Johnson to get cut to make it off the Redskins practice squad. A few good games(after he was forced into playing time due to injuries) in a Shanahan offense doesnt do much to change my mind that he is not very good..

 

[mcintyre1]

I've always loved Helu for his physical skills and determination as a player (3* unheralded recruit to #4 all-time rusher at Nebraska), but I agree that he is being way over-drafted. I had to take him at 1.12 in my Zealots league, and that was 4 spots behind his ADP. That's just crazy for a 4th round RB that went to a team with a quality young RB already leading the way. Do I have hopes that he'll take the starting job and run with it? Of course. But those were mid 2nd - early 3rd round hopes, not late first.

From the lips of Helu's biggest proponent on these boards:

Buyer beware. Let someone else draft him above his value and take a falling WR.

Interesting post. I am surprised you aren't more convinced Helu's the best RB on their roster. No veteran in WAS really qualifies as a "quality RB".

I tend to be higher on Torain than most. He's no chopped liver, like everyone else seems to think. He doesn't have great speed, but he runs with a lot of power and makes good use of what blocking he gets. That's not to be overlooked. I guess my feelings on Torain are this:

He's produced some really great games with (what I consider to be) a pretty mediocre offensive line. It may not be pretty, but you can't argue with results. I think it will be much harder to supplant him from that starting role than is generally believed. I have no doubt that Helu is more physically talented than Torain but, as we all know, that doesn't necessarily mean a damn thing. If Torain had been even a 2nd round pick a couple of years ago, he'd be considered a great sleeper and a dynasty buy with his production so far.

For me, Its not so much that, as it is getting cut by the Broncos and then he needed Larry Johnson to get cut to make it of the Redskins practice squad. A few good games in a Shanahan offense doesnt do much for me.

Arian Foster was signed and released by Houston before being resigned to the practice squad and earning his way on to the team. Not saying Torain is the same as Foster in any way, but it isn't without precedent. I'm sure you can find other cases of low round RBs that skipped around awhile before getting their shot and proving to be effective and worthy of the starting role.

 

[sihaokills]

I think Torain could be a stud

 

[Go deep]

I've always loved Helu for his physical skills and determination as a player (3* unheralded recruit to #4 all-time rusher at Nebraska), but I agree that he is being way over-drafted. I had to take him at 1.12 in my Zealots league, and that was 4 spots behind his ADP. That's just crazy for a 4th round RB that went to a team with a quality young RB already leading the way. Do I have hopes that he'll take the starting job and run with it? Of course. But those were mid 2nd - early 3rd round hopes, not late first.

From the lips of Helu's biggest proponent on these boards:

Buyer beware. Let someone else draft him above his value and take a falling WR.

Interesting post. I am surprised you aren't more convinced Helu's the best RB on their roster. No veteran in WAS really qualifies as a "quality RB".

I tend to be higher on Torain than most. He's no chopped liver, like everyone else seems to think. He doesn't have great speed, but he runs with a lot of power and makes good use of what blocking he gets. That's not to be overlooked. I guess my feelings on Torain are this:

He's produced some really great games with (what I consider to be) a pretty mediocre offensive line. It may not be pretty, but you can't argue with results. I think it will be much harder to supplant him from that starting role than is generally believed. I have no doubt that Helu is more physically talented than Torain but, as we all know, that doesn't necessarily mean a damn thing. If Torain had been even a 2nd round pick a couple of years ago, he'd be considered a great sleeper and a dynasty buy with his production so far.

For me, Its not so much that, as it is getting cut by the Broncos and then he needed Larry Johnson to get cut to make it of the Redskins practice squad. A few good games in a Shanahan offense doesnt do much for me.

Arian Foster was signed and released by Houston before being resigned to the practice squad and earning his way on to the team. Not saying Torain is the same as Foster in any way, but it isn't without precedent. I'm sure you can find other cases of low round RBs that skipped around awhile before getting their shot and proving to be effective and worthy of the starting role.

Sure, but I bet i could find 1000x more RB's that skipped around a while and didnt end up being very good. If Torain is a starting RB from now through 2012 season i will cut off one of my limbs, your choice.

 

[mcintyre1]

I've always loved Helu for his physical skills and determination as a player (3* unheralded recruit to #4 all-time rusher at Nebraska), but I agree that he is being way over-drafted. I had to take him at 1.12 in my Zealots league, and that was 4 spots behind his ADP. That's just crazy for a 4th round RB that went to a team with a quality young RB already leading the way. Do I have hopes that he'll take the starting job and run with it? Of course. But those were mid 2nd - early 3rd round hopes, not late first.

From the lips of Helu's biggest proponent on these boards:

Buyer beware. Let someone else draft him above his value and take a falling WR.

Interesting post. I am surprised you aren't more convinced Helu's the best RB on their roster. No veteran in WAS really qualifies as a "quality RB".

I tend to be higher on Torain than most. He's no chopped liver, like everyone else seems to think. He doesn't have great speed, but he runs with a lot of power and makes good use of what blocking he gets. That's not to be overlooked. I guess my feelings on Torain are this:

He's produced some really great games with (what I consider to be) a pretty mediocre offensive line. It may not be pretty, but you can't argue with results. I think it will be much harder to supplant him from that starting role than is generally believed. I have no doubt that Helu is more physically talented than Torain but, as we all know, that doesn't necessarily mean a damn thing. If Torain had been even a 2nd round pick a couple of years ago, he'd be considered a great sleeper and a dynasty buy with his production so far.

For me, Its not so much that, as it is getting cut by the Broncos and then he needed Larry Johnson to get cut to make it of the Redskins practice squad. A few good games in a Shanahan offense doesnt do much for me.

Arian Foster was signed and released by Houston before being resigned to the practice squad and earning his way on to the team. Not saying Torain is the same as Foster in any way, but it isn't without precedent. I'm sure you can find other cases of low round RBs that skipped around awhile before getting their shot and proving to be effective and worthy of the starting role.

Sure, but I bet i could find 1000x more RB's that skipped around a while and didnt end up being very good. If Torain is a starting RB from now through 2012 season i will cut off one of my limbs, your choice.

I don't think we're really very far apart in our opinions here. Based on your offer, you're willing to concede that there's a pretty good shot Torain may keep the starting job for all of next year? That's all I'm saying is the case. Who knows what will happen two seasons from now. I'm not arguing for Torain to be a top 20 dynasty RB or anything, I just think that it is more likely that he keeps the job for the coming year than he loses it. That make him a useful dynasty piece, as you can grab him for cheap right now (owner will be scared of the rooks), ride him for the year, then sell him high after.

 

[Go deep]

I've always loved Helu for his physical skills and determination as a player (3* unheralded recruit to #4 all-time rusher at Nebraska), but I agree that he is being way over-drafted. I had to take him at 1.12 in my Zealots league, and that was 4 spots behind his ADP. That's just crazy for a 4th round RB that went to a team with a quality young RB already leading the way. Do I have hopes that he'll take the starting job and run with it? Of course. But those were mid 2nd - early 3rd round hopes, not late first.

From the lips of Helu's biggest proponent on these boards:

Buyer beware. Let someone else draft him above his value and take a falling WR.

Interesting post. I am surprised you aren't more convinced Helu's the best RB on their roster. No veteran in WAS really qualifies as a "quality RB".

I tend to be higher on Torain than most. He's no chopped liver, like everyone else seems to think. He doesn't have great speed, but he runs with a lot of power and makes good use of what blocking he gets. That's not to be overlooked. I guess my feelings on Torain are this:

He's produced some really great games with (what I consider to be) a pretty mediocre offensive line. It may not be pretty, but you can't argue with results. I think it will be much harder to supplant him from that starting role than is generally believed. I have no doubt that Helu is more physically talented than Torain but, as we all know, that doesn't necessarily mean a damn thing. If Torain had been even a 2nd round pick a couple of years ago, he'd be considered a great sleeper and a dynasty buy with his production so far.

For me, Its not so much that, as it is getting cut by the Broncos and then he needed Larry Johnson to get cut to make it of the Redskins practice squad. A few good games in a Shanahan offense doesnt do much for me.

Arian Foster was signed and released by Houston before being resigned to the practice squad and earning his way on to the team. Not saying Torain is the same as Foster in any way, but it isn't without precedent. I'm sure you can find other cases of low round RBs that skipped around awhile before getting their shot and proving to be effective and worthy of the starting role.

Sure, but I bet i could find 1000x more RB's that skipped around a while and didnt end up being very good. If Torain is a starting RB from now through 2012 season i will cut off one of my limbs, your choice.

I don't think we're really very far apart in our opinions here. Based on your offer, you're willing to concede that there's a pretty good shot Torain may keep the starting job for all of next year? That's all I'm saying is the case. Who knows what will happen two seasons from now. I'm not arguing for Torain to be a top 20 dynasty RB or anything, I just think that it is more likely that he keeps the job for the coming year than he loses it. That make him a useful dynasty piece, as you can grab him for cheap right now (owner will be scared of the rooks), ride him for the year, then sell him high after.

Sure, he may start some games n 2011, but i dont think he will start many unless the other RB's are hurt. I just wouldnt bet a limb on it.

 

[offdee]

I still have Eric Shelton nightmares.

 

[coolnerd]

In a few of my rookie drafts, as well as other drafts, I'm seeing an interesting trend. Guys like Helu and Delone Carter are getting WAY over-drafted. Now if you like these guys as players, then by all means draft them.

But if you are drafting because you think they could have a chance to immediately start...you are making a huge mistake.

Don't think for a second the Colts wouldn't be interested in Deangelo, Reggie Bush, or some other free agent RB. You think their problems are solved because of Delone Carter? No chance. So people drafting him absurdly early in rookie drafts will have egg all over their faces in a few months when free agency starts.

Just a little advice to people drafting rookies in dynasty:

ALWAYS CHOOSE TALENT OVER SITUATION

I think the real problem here is that ff players are not as good at the talent evaluation as they think they are. Often (not so much in your example from this year) people confuse raw athltic ability with talent/skill. Further, the I don't think it breaks down to that simple a binary, both generally and should be considered in the process.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

Don't think for a second the Colts wouldn't be interested in Deangelo, Reggie Bush, or some other free agent RB.

I do think that because the Colts never sign big-money free agents. They hardly sign free agents period.

 

[mcintyre1]

I've always loved Helu for his physical skills and determination as a player (3* unheralded recruit to #4 all-time rusher at Nebraska), but I agree that he is being way over-drafted. I had to take him at 1.12 in my Zealots league, and that was 4 spots behind his ADP. That's just crazy for a 4th round RB that went to a team with a quality young RB already leading the way. Do I have hopes that he'll take the starting job and run with it? Of course. But those were mid 2nd - early 3rd round hopes, not late first.

From the lips of Helu's biggest proponent on these boards:

Buyer beware. Let someone else draft him above his value and take a falling WR.

Interesting post. I am surprised you aren't more convinced Helu's the best RB on their roster. No veteran in WAS really qualifies as a "quality RB".

I tend to be higher on Torain than most. He's no chopped liver, like everyone else seems to think. He doesn't have great speed, but he runs with a lot of power and makes good use of what blocking he gets. That's not to be overlooked. I guess my feelings on Torain are this:

He's produced some really great games with (what I consider to be) a pretty mediocre offensive line. It may not be pretty, but you can't argue with results. I think it will be much harder to supplant him from that starting role than is generally believed. I have no doubt that Helu is more physically talented than Torain but, as we all know, that doesn't necessarily mean a damn thing. If Torain had been even a 2nd round pick a couple of years ago, he'd be considered a great sleeper and a dynasty buy with his production so far.

For me, Its not so much that, as it is getting cut by the Broncos and then he needed Larry Johnson to get cut to make it of the Redskins practice squad. A few good games in a Shanahan offense doesnt do much for me.

Arian Foster was signed and released by Houston before being resigned to the practice squad and earning his way on to the team. Not saying Torain is the same as Foster in any way, but it isn't without precedent. I'm sure you can find other cases of low round RBs that skipped around awhile before getting their shot and proving to be effective and worthy of the starting role.

Sure, but I bet i could find 1000x more RB's that skipped around a while and didnt end up being very good. If Torain is a starting RB from now through 2012 season i will cut off one of my limbs, your choice.

I don't think we're really very far apart in our opinions here. Based on your offer, you're willing to concede that there's a pretty good shot Torain may keep the starting job for all of next year? That's all I'm saying is the case. Who knows what will happen two seasons from now. I'm not arguing for Torain to be a top 20 dynasty RB or anything, I just think that it is more likely that he keeps the job for the coming year than he loses it. That make him a useful dynasty piece, as you can grab him for cheap right now (owner will be scared of the rooks), ride him for the year, then sell him high after.

Sure, he may start some games n 2011, but i dont think he will start many unless the other RB's are hurt. I just wouldnt bet a limb on it.

Checking your most recent rankings, I just can't agree with where you have Torain. Behind Bilal Powell, Roy Helu, Jacquizz Rodgers, Delone Carter, Kendall Hunter, Demarco Murray, Dion Lewis, Alex Green, Allen Bradford,Taiwan Jones, Johnny White, and Jordan Todman? That's just the rookies too. That's some major hate that I don't feel is justified. Whatever, we're getting off topic of the thread. We'll just have to agree to disagree on Torain.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Checking your most recent rankings, I just can't agree with where you have Torain. Behind Bilal Powell, Roy Helu, Jacquizz Rodgers, Delone Carter, Kendall Hunter, Demarco Murray, Dion Lewis, Alex Green, Allen Bradford,Taiwan Jones, Johnny White, and Jordan Todman? That's just the rookies too. That's some major hate that I don't feel is justified. Whatever, we're getting off topic of the thread. We'll just have to agree to disagree on Torain.

If you trade youth for a RB for situationYou could get destroyed

 

[mcintyre1]

Checking your most recent rankings, I just can't agree with where you have Torain. Behind Bilal Powell, Roy Helu, Jacquizz Rodgers, Delone Carter, Kendall Hunter, Demarco Murray, Dion Lewis, Alex Green, Allen Bradford,Taiwan Jones, Johnny White, and Jordan Todman? That's just the rookies too. That's some major hate that I don't feel is justified. Whatever, we're getting off topic of the thread. We'll just have to agree to disagree on Torain.

If you trade youth for a RB for situationYou could get destroyed

I'm not clear what you mean by that... are you saying that if you trade an Allen Bradford/Alex Green/Dion Lewis/Johnny White/Jordan Todman type back for a RB like Torain, you somehow lose? What crazy world are we living in where 2nd and 3rd round rookies are worth more than young guys that have good production and currently have a starting gig?

 

[CalBear]

I agree with the point that the colts line should be improved. However the fact remains that 91% of 4/5th round RBs are busts. Taking a guy with that bust rate is silly in the mid/late first round of drafts. I would take a chance at a lottery ticket with carter over helu though but never in the first round.

This logic is fallacious, because 91% of 4/5th round RBs aren't drafted in the first round of fantasy drafts. What is the bust rate on 4/5th round RBs who land in good enough situations that people want to draft them that highly?

 

[thriftyrocker]

If you trade youth for a RB for situationYou could get destroyed

I'm not clear what you mean by that... are you saying that if you trade an Allen Bradford/Alex Green/Dion Lewis/Johnny White/Jordan Todman type back for a RB like Torain, you somehow lose? What crazy world are we living in where 2nd and 3rd round rookies are worth more than young guys that have good production and currently have a starting gig?

From the original listBilal Powell, Roy Helu, Jacquizz Rodgers, Delone Carter, Kendall Hunter, Demarco Murray, Dion Lewis, Alex Green, Taiwan JonesAll have much more value than Torain. Torain is only guaranteed a starting gig until the lockout's over. Torain has RB2 production, a low ceiling, and a looooong injury history. Guys like Powell, Helu, Quizz, Carter, and Hunter have a much higher ceiling and a much longer window and should be valued higher.Torain might be worth more than Bradford, White, or Todman. The names you picked are less attractive for sure.

 

[tones]

While I'm not on the Helu train, Torain is coached by the one coach more fickly then BB with his RBs. Only a matter of time before Helu gets his shot. Who else does WAS have K Williams & J Davis? Own them both in Zealots just as lottery tickets.

I like Carter in INDY more as the offense will create (especially with improved OL) running lanes. But INDY is going to spend $ in FA to get someone else. Street FA only need appy OR they draft someone and kick the tires for 3-5 years.

 

[TheFanatic]

Player A: 155 carries, 637 yards (4.1 YPC) and 4 TD's

Player B: 164 carries, 742 yards (4.5 YPC) and 4 TD's

Player B, is Torain in what I consider his rookie season. He had 15 attempts in 2008 and nothing in 2009. I don't call that stint in Denver in 2008 even a cup of coffee in the league.

Player A is LeSean McCoy circa his rookie year in 2009. I recall a whole lot of people saying McCoy didn't impress them all that much as a rookie. Torain's numbers are right there with Shady.

That doesn't guarantee anything with Shanahan, but giving Helu the starting nod out of the gate is myopic at best...

 

[thriftyrocker]

While I'm not on the Helu train, Torain is coached by the one coach more fickly then BB with his RBs. Only a matter of time before Helu gets his shot. Who else does WAS have K Williams & J Davis? Own them both in Zealots just as lottery tickets.

Don't forget Royster was drafted too. If Torain fails it's an open competition between the two rookies.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I've always loved Helu for his physical skills and determination as a player (3* unheralded recruit to #4 all-time rusher at Nebraska), but I agree that he is being way over-drafted. I had to take him at 1.12 in my Zealots league, and that was 4 spots behind his ADP. That's just crazy for a 4th round RB that went to a team with a quality young RB already leading the way. Do I have hopes that he'll take the starting job and run with it? Of course. But those were mid 2nd - early 3rd round hopes, not late first.

From the lips of Helu's biggest proponent on these boards:

Buyer beware. Let someone else draft him above his value and take a falling WR.

Interesting post. I am surprised you aren't more convinced Helu's the best RB on their roster. No veteran in WAS really qualifies as a "quality RB".

I tend to be higher on Torain than most. He's no chopped liver, like everyone else seems to think. He doesn't have great speed, but he runs with a lot of power and makes good use of what blocking he gets. That's not to be overlooked. I guess my feelings on Torain are this:

He's produced some really great games with (what I consider to be) a pretty mediocre offensive line. It may not be pretty, but you can't argue with results. I think it will be much harder to supplant him from that starting role than is generally believed. I have no doubt that Helu is more physically talented than Torain but, as we all know, that doesn't necessarily mean a damn thing. If Torain had been even a 2nd round pick a couple of years ago, he'd be considered a great sleeper and a dynasty buy with his production so far.

For me, Its not so much that, as it is getting cut by the Broncos and then he needed Larry Johnson to get cut to make it off the Redskins practice squad. A few good games(after he was forced into playing time due to injuries) in a Shanahan offense doesnt do much to change my mind that he is not very good..

Couldn't you say those two things kind of went hand in hand?

 

[mcintyre1]

If you trade youth for a RB for situationYou could get destroyed

I'm not clear what you mean by that... are you saying that if you trade an Allen Bradford/Alex Green/Dion Lewis/Johnny White/Jordan Todman type back for a RB like Torain, you somehow lose? What crazy world are we living in where 2nd and 3rd round rookies are worth more than young guys that have good production and currently have a starting gig?

From the original listBilal Powell, Roy Helu, Jacquizz Rodgers, Delone Carter, Kendall Hunter, Demarco Murray, Dion Lewis, Alex Green, Taiwan JonesAll have much more value than Torain. Torain is only guaranteed a starting gig until the lockout's over. Torain has RB2 production, a low ceiling, and a looooong injury history. Guys like Powell, Helu, Quizz, Carter, and Hunter have a much higher ceiling and a much longer window and should be valued higher.Torain might be worth more than Bradford, White, or Todman. The names you picked are less attractive for sure.

Much more value than Torain? Let's keep things in perspective:Bilal Powell has had 1 year of good production in a terrible conference and did jack squat before that. That's a huge risk.Roy Helu has as much of an injury history as Torain, he just plays through it. But it has affected the way he runs (he's shown himself to be afraid of re-injuring his shoulder at times). Jacquizz Rodgers is one I can give you; I like him and he's got a great chance to prove himself. He's got production at the college level, but he's not without his own blemishes. He's small, and doesn't have elite speed (in fact, he ran a 40 almost as slow as Torain at the combine), but I do like his situation in ATL behind a quickly aging Turner.Delone Carter will be sitting behind Addai next year, and will get his shot only after Brown fails to make good on his pedigree (which I agree will likely happen). He also lacks elite speed, and has an injury history, just like Torain.Kendall Hunter good speed, agility, and production at the college level, but his size worries me a little. I can understand why people would value him over Torain, especially if they think Gore is on his last legs (I'm not sure I agree with that).Demarco Murray has an injury history and a muddled situation. I think there's a good chance he never starts for Dallas with Felix and Choice there already.Dion Lewis? Really? No 2nd gear, just like Torain. He's small and stuck behind a top 5 dynasty back in Lesean McCoy. Alex Green looks wholly unimpressive on tape, running through gaping holes created by Hawaii's spread based attack. Decent speed, especially for his size, but lacks agility on the field. Stuck behind Steven Jackson for the next couple of years at least, unlikely to take the starting gig after that, either.Taiwan Jones, his coaches in Oakland have admitted that they don't need him and are not sure how they'll work him into the offense. Yeah, he's got great physical attributes. So did Chris Henry. He's stuck behind Darren McFadden and Michael Bush, and I don't ever see him supplanting McFadden.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Your negatives on all the rookies are valid, for the most part. Green is in GB not STL which makes his situation a little more favorable.

However, Torain's negatives still seem worse. The chance he is worthless in October is much more than all of those players. The chance he is worthless in 2012 is much more than all of those players. His ceiling in 2012 is no higher than many of those players, the only exceptions being possibly Lewis and Taiwan. The only benefit is 2011 production, but that seems 1) far from a sure thing and 2) low RB2 at best.

If you're in a league with multiple flexes and need those RB points, I wouldn't fault you for holding Torain. But you have to do so realizing he's a toxic asset that will lose value quickly. Just being a Shanny starter gives him this stigma, but when you add his history and lack of natural athleticism, it compounds it even more so.

 

[mcintyre1]

Your negatives on all the rookies are valid, for the most part. Green is in GB not STL which makes his situation a little more favorable.

However, Torain's negatives still seem worse. The chance he is worthless in October is much more than all of those players. The chance he is worthless in 2012 is much more than all of those players. His ceiling in 2012 is no higher than many of those players, the only exceptions being possibly Lewis and Taiwan. The only benefit is 2011 production, but that seems 1) far from a sure thing and 2) low RB2 at best.

If you're in a league with multiple flexes and need those RB points, I wouldn't fault you for holding Torain. But you have to do so realizing he's a toxic asset that will lose value quickly. Just being a Shanny starter gives him this stigma, but when you add his history and lack of natural athleticism, it compounds it even more so.

Yikes, my bad. Shows how much I like him, I guess

I guess I just don't see as many negatives in Torain's game as the rest of you. Why is it a guarantee that he loses the job to Helu/Royster? He runs with more power than either of them, and has shown that he has the vision and running skills to produce at a quality starter level in the NFL. When they drafted Helu and Royster, I didn't see that as a message that Torain wasn't getting it done. I saw that them refilling the cupboard after having to promote two backs off of their practice squad in order to field a team.

 

[Multiple Scores]

I love your logic. So if us geeks draft them high in our geek drafts they have a better shot? Call all NFL gms and let them know fantasy geeks will start running their NFL drafts. And you question my logic? It's not my logic btw it's fact.

I agree with the point that the colts line should be improved. However the fact remains that 91% of 4/5th round RBs are busts. Taking a guy with that bust rate is silly in the mid/late first round of drafts. I would take a chance at a lottery ticket with carter over helu though but never in the first round.

This logic is fallacious, because 91% of 4/5th round RBs aren't drafted in the first round of fantasy drafts. What is the bust rate on 4/5th round RBs who land in good enough situations that people want to draft them that highly?

 

[Multiple Scores]

I'm right there with you. Torain is impressive in the games I've seen him in.

Your negatives on all the rookies are valid, for the most part. Green is in GB not STL which makes his situation a little more favorable.

However, Torain's negatives still seem worse. The chance he is worthless in October is much more than all of those players. The chance he is worthless in 2012 is much more than all of those players. His ceiling in 2012 is no higher than many of those players, the only exceptions being possibly Lewis and Taiwan. The only benefit is 2011 production, but that seems 1) far from a sure thing and 2) low RB2 at best.

If you're in a league with multiple flexes and need those RB points, I wouldn't fault you for holding Torain. But you have to do so realizing he's a toxic asset that will lose value quickly. Just being a Shanny starter gives him this stigma, but when you add his history and lack of natural athleticism, it compounds it even more so.

Yikes, my bad. Shows how much I like him, I guess

I guess I just don't see as many negatives in Torain's game as the rest of you. Why is it a guarantee that he loses the job to Helu/Royster? He runs with more power than either of them, and has shown that he has the vision and running skills to produce at a quality starter level in the NFL. When they drafted Helu and Royster, I didn't see that as a message that Torain wasn't getting it done. I saw that them refilling the cupboard after having to promote two backs off of their practice squad in order to field a team.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

A few years back Steve McNair was an underrated QB. Then, so many people started using the "Steve McNair is perennially underrated" argument with absolution that he actually became overrated. For years, people that saw McNair as underrated were ahead of the curve, they were sharks. By the end of it, it was so overused and poorly placed that saying it became the sign of a guppy.

This "talent over situation" phrase has followed the same path. 3-4 years ago you only heard the sharks saying it. While guppies gobbled up guys in great situations, the sharks were content to sit back and wait and get the more talented player who would shine through eventually.

Now though, people have taken it to far. "Talent over situation" is used in absolution, and that's stupid.

Situation has a place in fantasy football. A big place. I've ALWAYS been a talent over situation type guy, but people are taking it way too far. This isn't the same argument we had 5 years ago when people were talking about taking an obviously less talented player *extremely* early in drafts. We're talking about late 1st round rookie picks and mid-round redraft picks here. At that point, sometimes it's worth the risk. Mediocre talents in good situations often amount to nothing. But sometimes, and not all that rarely, they win fantasy championships for people.

Again, we're talking about the late 1st round of rookie drafts and middle rounds of regular drafts here. Most people picked in those spots are going to be busts anyway. It's not like people are passing up on Adrian Peterson for Roy Helu. They're passing up on other guys who are just as unlikely to ever amount to anything worthwhile.

The other thing that people need to start taking account of to improve their fantasy football game is that they can be wrong about players. If I'm rating two players on a scale of 1-10, and I rate one of them a 6 and one of them a 5, if the 5 is in a significantly better situation I'll take him every time. Why? Because my opinions on their talent aren't their actual talent, and if I have the two rated even semi-close (or if we're talking about two guys where I don't have either as particularly elite talents) then I'd rather take my chances with the guy who has the opportunity to be an FF superstar if that talent actually is there.

I'm still a talent over situation guy, but people use the phrase with way too much absolution nowadays. Just repeating those words doesn't make you a shark like some people seem to think it does. All I hear is "Hey guys, look at me, I heard someone say talent over situation so now I use it everywhere, that means that I really know my stuff".

 

[CalBear]

I agree with the point that the colts line should be improved. However the fact remains that 91% of 4/5th round RBs are busts. Taking a guy with that bust rate is silly in the mid/late first round of drafts. I would take a chance at a lottery ticket with carter over helu though but never in the first round.

This logic is fallacious, because 91% of 4/5th round RBs aren't drafted in the first round of fantasy drafts. What is the bust rate on 4/5th round RBs who land in good enough situations that people want to draft them that highly?

I love your logic. So if us geeks draft them high in our geek drafts they have a better shot? Call all NFL gms and let them know fantasy geeks will start running their NFL drafts. And you question my logic? It's not my logic btw it's fact.

You have it backwards; if they have a better shot, we geeks draft them higher in our geek drafts. A RB drafted in the fourth round who's sitting on the practice squad, or deep on the depth chart, will not be drafted in the first round of fantasy drafts, while an RB drafted in the fourth round who is the clear starter on a good offense will be. So a stat that's about how many practice-squad RBs never become starters has no relevance to the question of whether a starting RB will produce or not. On average, fourth round RBs are less talented than third round RBs, who are less talented than second round RBs and so on. That doesn't mean that every third round RB is better than every fourth round RB.

 

[jacobo_moses]

A few years back Steve McNair was an underrated QB. Then, so many people started using the "Steve McNair is perennially underrated" argument with absolution that he actually became overrated. For years, people that saw McNair as underrated were ahead of the curve, they were sharks. By the end of it, it was so overused and poorly placed that saying it became the sign of a guppy.

This "talent over situation" phrase has followed the same path. 3-4 years ago you only heard the sharks saying it. While guppies gobbled up guys in great situations, the sharks were content to sit back and wait and get the more talented player who would shine through eventually.

Now though, people have taken it to far. "Talent over situation" is used in absolution, and that's stupid.

Situation has a place in fantasy football. A big place. I've ALWAYS been a talent over situation type guy, but people are taking it way too far. This isn't the same argument we had 5 years ago when people were talking about taking an obviously less talented player *extremely* early in drafts. We're talking about late 1st round rookie picks and mid-round redraft picks here. At that point, sometimes it's worth the risk. Mediocre talents in good situations often amount to nothing. But sometimes, and not all that rarely, they win fantasy championships for people.

Again, we're talking about the late 1st round of rookie drafts and middle rounds of regular drafts here. Most people picked in those spots are going to be busts anyway. It's not like people are passing up on Adrian Peterson for Roy Helu. They're passing up on other guys who are just as unlikely to ever amount to anything worthwhile.

The other thing that people need to start taking account of to improve their fantasy football game is that they can be wrong about players. If I'm rating two players on a scale of 1-10, and I rate one of them a 6 and one of them a 5, if the 5 is in a significantly better situation I'll take him every time. Why? Because my opinions on their talent aren't their actual talent, and if I have the two rated even semi-close (or if we're talking about two guys where I don't have either as particularly elite talents) then I'd rather take my chances with the guy who has the opportunity to be an FF superstar if that talent actually is there.

I'm still a talent over situation guy, but people use the phrase with way too much absolution nowadays. Just repeating those words doesn't make you a shark like some people seem to think it does. All I hear is "Hey guys, look at me, I heard someone say talent over situation so now I use it everywhere, that means that I really know my stuff".

 

[JamesTheScot]

I've always loved Helu for his physical skills and determination as a player (3* unheralded recruit to #4 all-time rusher at Nebraska), but I agree that he is being way over-drafted. I had to take him at 1.12 in my Zealots league, and that was 4 spots behind his ADP. That's just crazy for a 4th round RB that went to a team with a quality young RB already leading the way. Do I have hopes that he'll take the starting job and run with it? Of course. But those were mid 2nd - early 3rd round hopes, not late first.

From the lips of Helu's biggest proponent on these boards:

Buyer beware. Let someone else draft him above his value and take a falling WR.

Interesting post. I am surprised you aren't more convinced Helu's the best RB on their roster. No veteran in WAS really qualifies as a "quality RB".

I tend to be higher on Torain than most. He's no chopped liver, like everyone else seems to think. He doesn't have great speed, but he runs with a lot of power and makes good use of what blocking he gets. That's not to be overlooked. I guess my feelings on Torain are this:

He's produced some really great games with (what I consider to be) a pretty mediocre offensive line. It may not be pretty, but you can't argue with results. I think it will be much harder to supplant him from that starting role than is generally believed. I have no doubt that Helu is more physically talented than Torain but, as we all know, that doesn't necessarily mean a damn thing. If Torain had been even a 2nd round pick a couple of years ago, he'd be considered a great sleeper and a dynasty buy with his production so far.

For me, Its not so much that, as it is getting cut by the Broncos and then he needed Larry Johnson to get cut to make it of the Redskins practice squad. A few good games in a Shanahan offense doesnt do much for me.

Arian Foster was signed and released by Houston before being resigned to the practice squad and earning his way on to the team. Not saying Torain is the same as Foster in any way, but it isn't without precedent. I'm sure you can find other cases of low round RBs that skipped around awhile before getting their shot and proving to be effective and worthy of the starting role.

Sure, but I bet i could find 1000x more RB's that skipped around a while and didnt end up being very good. If Torain is a starting RB from now through 2012 season i will cut off one of my limbs, your choice.

Are you trying to make a sig bet?It's not the odds, it's the stakes.

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

Hmm. Does Ingram count? Many people taking him #1 in rookie drafts due to "situation", despite Green and Jones being better dynasty prospects...

 

[JamesTheScot]

I agree with the point that the colts line should be improved. However the fact remains that 91% of 4/5th round RBs are busts. Taking a guy with that bust rate is silly in the mid/late first round of drafts. I would take a chance at a lottery ticket with carter over helu though but never in the first round.

This logic is fallacious, because 91% of 4/5th round RBs aren't drafted in the first round of fantasy drafts. What is the bust rate on 4/5th round RBs who land in good enough situations that people want to draft them that highly?

I love your logic. So if us geeks draft them high in our geek drafts they have a better shot? Call all NFL gms and let them know fantasy geeks will start running their NFL drafts. And you question my logic? It's not my logic btw it's fact.

You have it backwards; if they have a better shot, we geeks draft them higher in our geek drafts. A RB drafted in the fourth round who's sitting on the practice squad, or deep on the depth chart, will not be drafted in the first round of fantasy drafts, while an RB drafted in the fourth round who is the clear starter on a good offense will be. So a stat that's about how many practice-squad RBs never become starters has no relevance to the question of whether a starting RB will produce or not. On average, fourth round RBs are less talented than third round RBs, who are less talented than second round RBs and so on. That doesn't mean that every third round RB is better than every fourth round RB.

Good point. The basic odds are against every rookie player becoming a fantasy starter no matter what round and no matter what position. We're basically arguing over which long shot is the best bet. But our hobby requires that we put money on someone so these basic odds aren't really all that insightful.So it's a bit silly to try and convince someone they've picked the wrong horse because 91% of the horses from that round miss. We know this. We just think we might know which is the 9% horse. And since you basically have to back one horse or another...

 

[Go deep]

I agree with the point that the colts line should be improved. However the fact remains that 91% of 4/5th round RBs are busts. Taking a guy with that bust rate is silly in the mid/late first round of drafts. I would take a chance at a lottery ticket with carter over helu though but never in the first round.

This logic is fallacious, because 91% of 4/5th round RBs aren't drafted in the first round of fantasy drafts. What is the bust rate on 4/5th round RBs who land in good enough situations that people want to draft them that highly?

I love your logic. So if us geeks draft them high in our geek drafts they have a better shot? Call all NFL gms and let them know fantasy geeks will start running their NFL drafts. And you question my logic? It's not my logic btw it's fact.

You have it backwards; if they have a better shot, we geeks draft them higher in our geek drafts. A RB drafted in the fourth round who's sitting on the practice squad, or deep on the depth chart, will not be drafted in the first round of fantasy drafts, while an RB drafted in the fourth round who is the clear starter on a good offense will be. So a stat that's about how many practice-squad RBs never become starters has no relevance to the question of whether a starting RB will produce or not. On average, fourth round RBs are less talented than third round RBs, who are less talented than second round RBs and so on. That doesn't mean that every third round RB is better than every fourth round RB.

Good point. The basic odds are against every rookie player becoming a fantasy starter no matter what round and no matter what position. We're basically arguing over which long shot is the best bet. But our hobby requires that we put money on someone so these basic odds aren't really all that insightful.So it's a bit silly to try and convince someone they've picked the wrong horse because 91% of the horses from that round miss. We know this. We just think we might know which is the 9% horse. And since you basically have to back one horse or another...

Helu has a few things to his advantage as well. First off all, if 4th/5th round picks do indeed have a 9% chance of succeding, it bodes well for him that he was a 4th rounder in a draft that was deep in RB's. Other things benfiting him is Shanahan has had more luck with late round picks. Something else that makes Helu a good bet at being part of that 9% is he only has Torain and an ever later round pick to compete with.

 

[JamesTheScot]

I love your logic. So if us geeks draft them high in our geek drafts they have a better shot? Call all NFL gms and let them know fantasy geeks will start running their NFL drafts. And you question my logic? It's not my logic btw it's fact.

I agree with the point that the colts line should be improved. However the fact remains that 91% of 4/5th round RBs are busts. Taking a guy with that bust rate is silly in the mid/late first round of drafts. I would take a chance at a lottery ticket with carter over helu though but never in the first round.

This logic is fallacious, because 91% of 4/5th round RBs aren't drafted in the first round of fantasy drafts. What is the bust rate on 4/5th round RBs who land in good enough situations that people want to draft them that highly?

I'm not sure if you're confusing the causation issue or not. What's the basic odds of a college football player making it to an NFL roster? Now if I give you the population of all college football players, and give you access to information about them, their skills, their athleticism, etc., you don't think you could increase your odds of picking the ones that will make it to the NFL compared to the base odds which apply to the whole population of college players?That's all he's saying. Your base odds are the net result of non-identical population members. it does not take into account differences in the members of that population. Situation is something that could increase your odds of picking a member of that 9% target group.Are you disagreeing with that premise?

 

[JamesTheScot]

I agree with the point that the colts line should be improved. However the fact remains that 91% of 4/5th round RBs are busts. Taking a guy with that bust rate is silly in the mid/late first round of drafts. I would take a chance at a lottery ticket with carter over helu though but never in the first round.

This logic is fallacious, because 91% of 4/5th round RBs aren't drafted in the first round of fantasy drafts. What is the bust rate on 4/5th round RBs who land in good enough situations that people want to draft them that highly?

I love your logic. So if us geeks draft them high in our geek drafts they have a better shot? Call all NFL gms and let them know fantasy geeks will start running their NFL drafts. And you question my logic? It's not my logic btw it's fact.

You have it backwards; if they have a better shot, we geeks draft them higher in our geek drafts. A RB drafted in the fourth round who's sitting on the practice squad, or deep on the depth chart, will not be drafted in the first round of fantasy drafts, while an RB drafted in the fourth round who is the clear starter on a good offense will be. So a stat that's about how many practice-squad RBs never become starters has no relevance to the question of whether a starting RB will produce or not. On average, fourth round RBs are less talented than third round RBs, who are less talented than second round RBs and so on. That doesn't mean that every third round RB is better than every fourth round RB.

Good point. The basic odds are against every rookie player becoming a fantasy starter no matter what round and no matter what position. We're basically arguing over which long shot is the best bet. But our hobby requires that we put money on someone so these basic odds aren't really all that insightful.So it's a bit silly to try and convince someone they've picked the wrong horse because 91% of the horses from that round miss. We know this. We just think we might know which is the 9% horse. And since you basically have to back one horse or another...

Helu has a few things to his advantage as well. First off all, if 4th/5th round picks do indeed have a 9% chance of succeding, it bodes well for him that he was a 4th rounder in a draft that was deep in RB's. Other things benfiting him is Shanahan has had more luck with late round picks. Something else that makes Helu a good bet at being part of that 9% is he only has Torain and an ever later round pick to compete with.

I can't argue with that. In fact, I'd say once you filter out RB's that tend towards one physical extreme or another (such as a tiny COP back or a plodding FB), you probably further increase your odds of landing a relevant candidate.

 

[Hoosier16]

A few years back Steve McNair was an underrated QB. Then, so many people started using the "Steve McNair is perennially underrated" argument with absolution that he actually became overrated. For years, people that saw McNair as underrated were ahead of the curve, they were sharks. By the end of it, it was so overused and poorly placed that saying it became the sign of a guppy.

This "talent over situation" phrase has followed the same path. 3-4 years ago you only heard the sharks saying it. While guppies gobbled up guys in great situations, the sharks were content to sit back and wait and get the more talented player who would shine through eventually.

Now though, people have taken it to far. "Talent over situation" is used in absolution, and that's stupid.

Situation has a place in fantasy football. A big place. I've ALWAYS been a talent over situation type guy, but people are taking it way too far. This isn't the same argument we had 5 years ago when people were talking about taking an obviously less talented player *extremely* early in drafts. We're talking about late 1st round rookie picks and mid-round redraft picks here. At that point, sometimes it's worth the risk. Mediocre talents in good situations often amount to nothing. But sometimes, and not all that rarely, they win fantasy championships for people.

Again, we're talking about the late 1st round of rookie drafts and middle rounds of regular drafts here. Most people picked in those spots are going to be busts anyway. It's not like people are passing up on Adrian Peterson for Roy Helu. They're passing up on other guys who are just as unlikely to ever amount to anything worthwhile.

The other thing that people need to start taking account of to improve their fantasy football game is that they can be wrong about players. If I'm rating two players on a scale of 1-10, and I rate one of them a 6 and one of them a 5, if the 5 is in a significantly better situation I'll take him every time. Why? Because my opinions on their talent aren't their actual talent, and if I have the two rated even semi-close (or if we're talking about two guys where I don't have either as particularly elite talents) then I'd rather take my chances with the guy who has the opportunity to be an FF superstar if that talent actually is there.

I'm still a talent over situation guy, but people use the phrase with way too much absolution nowadays. Just repeating those words doesn't make you a shark like some people seem to think it does. All I hear is "Hey guys, look at me, I heard someone say talent over situation so now I use it everywhere, that means that I really know my stuff".

Extremely I'm so sick of the talent over situation argument, mainly because it all hinges on one person's personal opinion about who is more talented. For example, someone above made a claim that he took 'talent' over 'situation' when he drafted Hunter over Carter. Really? Hunter was drafted 4 spots ahead of Carter in the NFL draft! How much more talent could he possibly have?!!!!

 

[Go deep]

A few years back Steve McNair was an underrated QB. Then, so many people started using the "Steve McNair is perennially underrated" argument with absolution that he actually became overrated. For years, people that saw McNair as underrated were ahead of the curve, they were sharks. By the end of it, it was so overused and poorly placed that saying it became the sign of a guppy.

This "talent over situation" phrase has followed the same path. 3-4 years ago you only heard the sharks saying it. While guppies gobbled up guys in great situations, the sharks were content to sit back and wait and get the more talented player who would shine through eventually.

Now though, people have taken it to far. "Talent over situation" is used in absolution, and that's stupid.

Situation has a place in fantasy football. A big place. I've ALWAYS been a talent over situation type guy, but people are taking it way too far. This isn't the same argument we had 5 years ago when people were talking about taking an obviously less talented player *extremely* early in drafts. We're talking about late 1st round rookie picks and mid-round redraft picks here. At that point, sometimes it's worth the risk. Mediocre talents in good situations often amount to nothing. But sometimes, and not all that rarely, they win fantasy championships for people.

Again, we're talking about the late 1st round of rookie drafts and middle rounds of regular drafts here. Most people picked in those spots are going to be busts anyway. It's not like people are passing up on Adrian Peterson for Roy Helu. They're passing up on other guys who are just as unlikely to ever amount to anything worthwhile.

The other thing that people need to start taking account of to improve their fantasy football game is that they can be wrong about players. If I'm rating two players on a scale of 1-10, and I rate one of them a 6 and one of them a 5, if the 5 is in a significantly better situation I'll take him every time. Why? Because my opinions on their talent aren't their actual talent, and if I have the two rated even semi-close (or if we're talking about two guys where I don't have either as particularly elite talents) then I'd rather take my chances with the guy who has the opportunity to be an FF superstar if that talent actually is there.

I'm still a talent over situation guy, but people use the phrase with way too much absolution nowadays. Just repeating those words doesn't make you a shark like some people seem to think it does. All I hear is "Hey guys, look at me, I heard someone say talent over situation so now I use it everywhere, that means that I really know my stuff".

Extremely I'm so sick of the talent over situation argument, mainly because it all hinges on one person's personal opinion about who is more talented. For example, someone above made a claim that he took 'talent' over 'situation' when he drafted Hunter over Carter. Really? Hunter was drafted 4 spots ahead of Carter in the NFL draft! How much more talent could he possibly have?!!!!

Are you guys suggesting that Situatuion is more important than talent, or are you just sick of hearing it?

I cant speak for the guy who said Hunter was more talented than Carter, but maybe he believes Hunter is more talented and not based on draft spot.

Ultimatley talent is really all that matters. Sure, Helu and Carter have great opportunities but if they suck its not really going to matter.

Not to suggest situation shouldnt be taken into consideration, but ii wouldnt draft someone based solely on it.

 

[Hoosier16]

A few years back Steve McNair was an underrated QB. Then, so many people started using the "Steve McNair is perennially underrated" argument with absolution that he actually became overrated. For years, people that saw McNair as underrated were ahead of the curve, they were sharks. By the end of it, it was so overused and poorly placed that saying it became the sign of a guppy.

This "talent over situation" phrase has followed the same path. 3-4 years ago you only heard the sharks saying it. While guppies gobbled up guys in great situations, the sharks were content to sit back and wait and get the more talented player who would shine through eventually.

Now though, people have taken it to far. "Talent over situation" is used in absolution, and that's stupid.

Situation has a place in fantasy football. A big place. I've ALWAYS been a talent over situation type guy, but people are taking it way too far. This isn't the same argument we had 5 years ago when people were talking about taking an obviously less talented player *extremely* early in drafts. We're talking about late 1st round rookie picks and mid-round redraft picks here. At that point, sometimes it's worth the risk. Mediocre talents in good situations often amount to nothing. But sometimes, and not all that rarely, they win fantasy championships for people.

Again, we're talking about the late 1st round of rookie drafts and middle rounds of regular drafts here. Most people picked in those spots are going to be busts anyway. It's not like people are passing up on Adrian Peterson for Roy Helu. They're passing up on other guys who are just as unlikely to ever amount to anything worthwhile.

The other thing that people need to start taking account of to improve their fantasy football game is that they can be wrong about players. If I'm rating two players on a scale of 1-10, and I rate one of them a 6 and one of them a 5, if the 5 is in a significantly better situation I'll take him every time. Why? Because my opinions on their talent aren't their actual talent, and if I have the two rated even semi-close (or if we're talking about two guys where I don't have either as particularly elite talents) then I'd rather take my chances with the guy who has the opportunity to be an FF superstar if that talent actually is there.

I'm still a talent over situation guy, but people use the phrase with way too much absolution nowadays. Just repeating those words doesn't make you a shark like some people seem to think it does. All I hear is "Hey guys, look at me, I heard someone say talent over situation so now I use it everywhere, that means that I really know my stuff".

Extremely I'm so sick of the talent over situation argument, mainly because it all hinges on one person's personal opinion about who is more talented. For example, someone above made a claim that he took 'talent' over 'situation' when he drafted Hunter over Carter. Really? Hunter was drafted 4 spots ahead of Carter in the NFL draft! How much more talent could he possibly have?!!!!

Are you guys suggesting that Situatuion is more important than talent, or are you just sick of hearing it?

I cant speak for the guy who said Hunter was more talented than Carter, but maybe he believes Hunter is more talented and not based on draft spot.

Ultimatley talent is really all that matters. Sure, Helu and Carter have great opportunities but if they suck its not really going to matter.

Not to suggest situation shouldnt be taken into consideration, but ii wouldnt draft someone based solely on it.

I'm saying situation is a much bigger piece than most are willing to give credit. As for Hunter, I don't really care what many people think. The NFL professional scouts seem to think the talent difference is about 4 slots in the 4th round. We aren't talking about a 2nd rounder versus a 4th rounder.Nobody is suggesting that situation should be the only thing considered. In fact, i don't know where anyone has even remotely suggested it. But, people do suggest the opposite, almost to the point of completely ignoring situation.

 

[Go deep]

A few years back Steve McNair was an underrated QB. Then, so many people started using the "Steve McNair is perennially underrated" argument with absolution that he actually became overrated. For years, people that saw McNair as underrated were ahead of the curve, they were sharks. By the end of it, it was so overused and poorly placed that saying it became the sign of a guppy.

This "talent over situation" phrase has followed the same path. 3-4 years ago you only heard the sharks saying it. While guppies gobbled up guys in great situations, the sharks were content to sit back and wait and get the more talented player who would shine through eventually.

Now though, people have taken it to far. "Talent over situation" is used in absolution, and that's stupid.

Situation has a place in fantasy football. A big place. I've ALWAYS been a talent over situation type guy, but people are taking it way too far. This isn't the same argument we had 5 years ago when people were talking about taking an obviously less talented player *extremely* early in drafts. We're talking about late 1st round rookie picks and mid-round redraft picks here. At that point, sometimes it's worth the risk. Mediocre talents in good situations often amount to nothing. But sometimes, and not all that rarely, they win fantasy championships for people.

Again, we're talking about the late 1st round of rookie drafts and middle rounds of regular drafts here. Most people picked in those spots are going to be busts anyway. It's not like people are passing up on Adrian Peterson for Roy Helu. They're passing up on other guys who are just as unlikely to ever amount to anything worthwhile.

The other thing that people need to start taking account of to improve their fantasy football game is that they can be wrong about players. If I'm rating two players on a scale of 1-10, and I rate one of them a 6 and one of them a 5, if the 5 is in a significantly better situation I'll take him every time. Why? Because my opinions on their talent aren't their actual talent, and if I have the two rated even semi-close (or if we're talking about two guys where I don't have either as particularly elite talents) then I'd rather take my chances with the guy who has the opportunity to be an FF superstar if that talent actually is there.

I'm still a talent over situation guy, but people use the phrase with way too much absolution nowadays. Just repeating those words doesn't make you a shark like some people seem to think it does. All I hear is "Hey guys, look at me, I heard someone say talent over situation so now I use it everywhere, that means that I really know my stuff".

Extremely I'm so sick of the talent over situation argument, mainly because it all hinges on one person's personal opinion about who is more talented. For example, someone above made a claim that he took 'talent' over 'situation' when he drafted Hunter over Carter. Really? Hunter was drafted 4 spots ahead of Carter in the NFL draft! How much more talent could he possibly have?!!!!

Are you guys suggesting that Situatuion is more important than talent, or are you just sick of hearing it?

I cant speak for the guy who said Hunter was more talented than Carter, but maybe he believes Hunter is more talented and not based on draft spot.

Ultimatley talent is really all that matters. Sure, Helu and Carter have great opportunities but if they suck its not really going to matter.

Not to suggest situation shouldnt be taken into consideration, but ii wouldnt draft someone based solely on it.

I'm saying situation is a much bigger piece than most are willing to give credit. As for Hunter, I don't really care what many people think. The NFL professional scouts seem to think the talent difference is about 4 slots in the 4th round. We aren't talking about a 2nd rounder versus a 4th rounder.Nobody is suggesting that situation should be the only thing considered. In fact, i don't know where anyone has even remotely suggested it. But, people do suggest the opposite, almost to the point of completely ignoring situation.

Apparently you havnt been in any threads about Helu or Delone Carter. In all seriousness, your right, there is a fine line of situation/talent that needs to be establsihed. Im a talent over situation guy, more so in dynasty than redraft, but i understand situation plays a huge role. Its not Emmitt Smiths talent that has him as the NFL leading rusher. Does Terrell Davis rush for 2000 yards without Shanny? Think Priest Holmes or Arian Foster would have finsihed as the #1 fantasy RB on talent alone. However, when trying to evaluate a player, i think you should start with talent and go from there.

Edit, as for Hunter, i tend to agree with you, and i use a players draft position to help guage his talent. However, if someone really believes Hunter is that much more talented than Carter, i dont have a problem with that.

 

[Hoosier16]

In all seriousness, your right, there is a fine line of situation/talent that needs to be establsihed. Im a talent over situation guy, more so in dynasty than redraft, but i understand situation plays a huge role. Its not Emmitt Smiths talent that has him as the NFL leading rusher. Does Terrell Davis rush for 2000 yards without Shanny? Think Priest Holmes or Arian Foster would have finsihed as the #1 fantasy RB on talent alone. However, when trying to evaluate a player, i think you should start with talent and go from there. Edit, as for Hunter, i tend to agree with you, and i use a players draft position to help guage his talent. However, if someone really believes Hunter is that much more talented than Carter, i dont have a problem with that.

I really think you just enhanceed my argument. People not giving more weight to situation may have missed 10+ years of Emmitt. Same for Davis and Holmes had their careers not been cut short by injuries. And the same will be true for Foster. Those ranking Foster low because of perceived talent may miss out on years of top 5 production due to situation. Houston has absolutely no reason to draft a "more talented" RB if Foster continues to finish inthe top 5 every year.Situation should receive far more weight than it does (especailly at the RB position).

 

[ZWK]

At the top of the roster I generally go with talent over situation, but with prospects at the bottom of the roster situation is just as important. Any RB who has a starting job has fantasy value, no matter how mediocre a talent he is. Guys who have an opportunity to win the starting job also have an opportunity to quickly prove that they're busts, which lets me drop them and churn through other prospects to have more chances to hit on one. The worst case scenario is getting stuck with a guy who sits on my roster for years, taking up space while he teases with flashes of talent but never emerges into a big enough role to crack my starting lineup.

I don't mind waiting a couple years for a player with elite talent to win the role he deserves, but guys like that are rare by the end of the first round of a rookie draft. I'd love to find the next Jamaal Charles, but failing that I'm happy if my pick turns into a Steve Slaton who I can ride for one year and then dump a year later (or, even better, sell high on after his situation-driven success).