'pantherclub said:
I will post again.
Jamal Charles, Peterson, Forte, McFadden, CHris johnson and Medenhall all went in the first round of my big league last year. As did Andre Johnson.
Thats over half the first round that was not even starting the last half of the season in fantasy.
Why not take a low risk top QB and be done with it?
To answer your question directly this time, as it was answered indirectly by myself and few others:Because QB isnt as important as RB or WR as a position. At its most basic level it just isnt. Of course rostering a stud QB will be a point booster for your team. But one position does not make or break your team, averaging a few points more at QB is not the same as averaging a few points more at RB or WR, or both. Its not a simple equation that involves taking points from one position and adding it to another, its looking at your entire league at the position and seeing how you compare with them.
Rotating a few QBs that can put up 80-100% of an elite QBs numbers is far from "safe" but it is a lot safer IMO than making sure your team will be consistently under producing at every position other than QB.
Many people make a similar argument for TEs, but my opinion differs there as I believe top tier TEs have a much higher disparity than top tier QBs. When you can start the QB9 and get 70% of an elite QBs production every week its one thing. But its an entirely different thing to rotate a few QBs and get 80-100% of an elite QBs production. You cant do that with TEs.
A very good answer. QB is the easiest position to run a committee approach and get good returns. The other side of why you draft an RB in the first round: while some will get hurt or stink, around half of them will indeed pay out, and generally pretty big. A 40-50% chance at a superstar RB is a much better chance than you get with 3rd, 4th, 5th, and so on backs, and it is often a gamble worth taking. While elite QBs are pretty consistent, a lot of 2nd tier guys are pretty consistent, too, so there's not a ton of risk in waiting and grabbing Rivers, Eli, Roethlisberger, and so on, either. You just have different expectations.
only 3 running backs in my first round last year were top 10. McCoy, Rice and Foster.Again look at the 2nd tier level QB points vs the top tier. Its a huge difference
Its not that black and white, stop over simplifying it.The average turnover of top 10 RBs is around 50% if im not mistaken, last year was a freak year for RBs, which is why this year the RB field is even more important because so many teams are moving away from the workhorse backs.
You are correct in comparing Tom Brady to Ben Roethlisberger or whatever comparison you choose to make. But who drafts Ben Roethlisberger as their QB1 outside of a committee, you shouldnt be comparing Brady vs Roethlisberger, you should be comparing Brady vs Roethlisberger + Schaub + Ryan.
Im not sure what the turnover in top 10 QBs is, but I wouldnt be surprised at all if it was close to 50% either, I've been fortunate enough to draft a QB that well outperforms his ADP every year the last 3 years. Its a lot easier than you think when you have 1.5x-2x as many QBs as everyone else.
For those that still roll with a QBBC, who do you think represents the best duo? Assume mo Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Stafford, Newton, Vick, Ryan, Rivers, Romo, Eli, Peyton.
For me it entirely depends on my QB1, im targetting both Mannings, Rivers, Cutler and Ryan, but I will wait so I can possibly end up with none of them but its pretty tough to miss all of them.To supplement im looking at Schaub, Freeman, Fitzpatrick, RG3 and Roethlisberger in that order.
In a few drafts ive already done this year, ive been able to get two of the QBs I considered for QB1 later than the 7th round. I've even grabbed Cutler in the 11th.
I also stray away from duos and prefer at least 3 QBs.
