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Is This Collusion? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Banemorth
- Start date
I see what you did there.
Banemorth
Footballguy
Thewhiteknuckler
Footballguy
No just stupidity 
eaglesfan7
Footballguy
Nothing wrong with trade. Can't say much about the future picks because teams can turn around fast. 1.02 for the 6 and a second plus future picks is fine. Skins just did it for a player they really want so it's the same type of move here.
Carolina Hustler
Footballguy
A second, and 2 future firsts to move up 4 spots in this years first round.. Horrible trade..
Carolina Hustler
Footballguy
I don't think it's a fishing trip.. I think more so putting things in perspective for people..And catching a few so far....
HellToupee
Footballguy
and the FFAian of the shark pool continues
kudos
on the creativity
kudos
on the creativity
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cobalt_27
Footballguy
Couch Potato
Footballguy
Bad trade for Team A if the league folds before 2014.
Not For Long and all that.
But I shouldn't comment. I don't do IDP leagues.
Not For Long and all that.
But I shouldn't comment. I don't do IDP leagues.
Trust me team B will find a way to F this up. signed a rams fan.
comfortably numb
Footballguy
Would have to see both teams roosters before voting
cstu
Footballguy
In an IDP, TD-heavy league like this one I would protest.
PlasmaDogPlasma
Footballguy
Even with passing TDs being worth 6?
Lot of bad assumptions in this post.Why are these picks "probably high?"
In the last 5 years, the team with the 6th pick in the draft has had a top-10 pick in the subsequent draft 1 time. And only 1 other time has the team with the 6th pick had a top-20 pick. So, based on recent history, there's a 60% chance that those #1 picks won't be "probably high."
Furthermore, as recent history has shown, a franchise QB is necessary to be successful in the NFL. The Colts sucked without Manning, the 49er's & Ravens can win with average QBs but can't go all the way, and you have to go back to 2002 (Tom Brady before he was TOM BRADY) to find an average QB winning the SB.
Did the Skins pay a lot? Yes. Did they have to? Yes. Could it be a bad trade? Yes, but you can't call it that right now.
Carolina Hustler
Footballguy
"Probably high" doesn't necessarily mean top 5 pick.. Could mean top 10 pick.. Also you're trying to limit the variable outcome of your calculation, by limiting it to teams picking from the 6th position, when you should be counting teams 4,5,6,7,and 8.. Or at least 5,6,and 7..
Reality is that the Redskins picks have a much better chance of being high picks then you suggest.. Will they be a playoff team in the next couple years? Odds don't favor them.. Will they have a winning record? Odds are against that as well...
jurb26
Footballguy
Who's odds are you using to validate this? If RG3 is/becomes the player many think he will, I'd say your "odds" are very off.
Carolina Hustler
Footballguy
Who do you think RGII will become? Peyton manning? O' wait, Manning first season was a loosing season.. Cam Newton? O' wait, loosing season there as well... And those teams actually had nice offensive weapons..What exactly are you expecting?
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jurb26
Footballguy
You originally stated "next couple years." Now you are stating 1st year. Which is it?Wash was 5-11 last year. They were not epically bad like Car or Indy. Car went from 2 wins the year prior to drafting Cam and won 6 last year, a 4 game improvement. Indy won 3 games prior to drafting Manning and also 3 in his rookie year. They then won 13 in year 2. Hell, even St. L improved from 1 win the year prior to drafting Bradford to 7 wins in his 1st year. That was with Bradford, a guy universally considered lesser of a prospect.Neither team did worse and both improved greatly. So again I'll ask the question, who's odds are you validating this with?
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I wasn't limiting anything. The funny guy who started this thread brought up a team trading the 1.06 & 2.06 pick; I just used his starting point.'Carolina Hustler said:
I don't have a lot of time right now, but here are the 2011 top-10 NFL draft picks:Carolina'Carolina Hustler said:
Denver
Buffalo
Cincinnati
Arizona
Cleveland (traded to Atl)
San Francisco
Tennessee
Dallas
Washington (traded to Jacksonville)
And here is the 2012 top-10 NFL draft order:
Indianapolis Colts
St. Louis Rams (traded to Washington)
Minnesota Vikings
Cleveland Browns
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Washington Redskins (traded to StL)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Miami Dolphins
Carolina Panthers
Buffalo Bills
So, 4/10 teams repeated in the top-10. To me, that seems like the odds are with them, not against them. Now, I know this is only a 1-year sample, but it's more support than those who are saying "the Skins have given up 3 high 1st round-picks" without ANYTHING to support that belief.
cstu
Footballguy
Is his going to get them to better than 8-8? Typically, 7-9 is about the 10th pick and 8-8 is about 15th, depending on SOS. I don't have much problem projecting both of the future picks as top 20.BTW, of those other 6 teams who didn't have top 10 picks, they were #13, 14, 20, 21, 25 and 30. I'm sure the Rams are happy with a 50% chance of getting a top 14 pick and an 80% chance of a pick in the top 21.
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And I'm sure the Redskins are happy with a QB who they hope will be their franchise QB, so it's a win-win, I guess.
So, I was able to take some time and look back at the last 11 top-10s (including this years). I got this information from NFL.com, but it didn't indicate traded picks or anything like that, just what team picked at which spot in every year. The trend I noted in the previous post holds true: 40% of teams who pick in the top-10 have a top-10 pick in the second year. I think it's safe to say that you were incorrect when you said:
The odds do, in fact, favor them.
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Carolina Hustler
Footballguy
Sig bet?I asked what you are expecting.. I expect them to be in the bottom half of the NFC..If you think the odds favor you, put your sig where your mouth is...'jurb26 said:
cstu
Footballguy
Only if you are classify a high pick as a top 10. How many of teams picking in the top 10 picked in the top 15 the next year?
If you are interested, feel free to check it out. I was merely responding posts in this thread, which were implying that it was a bad trade for the Redskins. The facts are that the Rams were trading the #2, the Browns were interested, and (Schefter reported) were also offering 3 1st-rounders. The Redskins gave up what they had to, in order to get RGIII. If he turns out to be as good as everyone is projecting, then it's a good trade for them (and those 1st-rounders could be later picks).
cstu
Footballguy
I'm in the camp that says it's win-win for both sides but just pointing out that the Rams are likely to get a shot at some very good players out of it.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
That's actually 2.07.
No doubt-my initial post in this thread was in response to the baseless assumption that the future 1st-round picks were automatically going to be "high" (top-10) picks, so the trade was horrible for Washington. If the Rams get quality players with those picks, they win, and if RGIII pans out (& the Skins use their later picks wisely & get a few quality FAs), they win, too.
jurb26
Footballguy
I'm still not sure what time frame you are talking about. Are you saying they are in the bottom half of the league next year, or the next few years?
GregR
Footballguy
There is one thing that would be looked at if this were a fantasy trade that is worth considering for the NFL version.
The supposed lopsidedness of it wouldn't be circumstantial evidence of collusion in fantasy, because it is right at market level. The Browns were reportedly offering three 1st round picks.
So back to the NFL standpoint, it may seem like a lot to give up, but the Redskins aren't the only team who think that's in the appropriate price range.
The supposed lopsidedness of it wouldn't be circumstantial evidence of collusion in fantasy, because it is right at market level. The Browns were reportedly offering three 1st round picks.
So back to the NFL standpoint, it may seem like a lot to give up, but the Redskins aren't the only team who think that's in the appropriate price range.
Carolina Hustler
Footballguy
I expect them to be in the bottom half of the NFC in 2012, and 2013... Running bet...? Awarded at the end of each season..?
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