Fair enough. We'll have to agree to disagree on certain aspects.
A few comments:
1. The NFL perspective matters because NFL coaches & GMs don't give a #### about fantasy football.
2. I don't play PPR. If you do, I can see how his stats are incrementally better, but still average at best
3. Great, he got 2 TDs in week 1. Unless you disagree that TDs are more volatile than yardage (an argument I would love to hear, though it's unlikely to be compelling), it's easy to see how his performance other than week 2 has been pedestrian.
Anyway, appreciate the thoughtful response. I still think Best can do well and be a strong contributor as this team (including Stafford) continues to mature.
Why do NFL coaches have to care about FF? NFL perspective really doesn't matter. Guys can be huge contributors to their NFL team, but do nothing for a fantasy team and vice versa. Reggie Bush.His scoring is absolutely not incrementally better in ppr. He has 31 receptions through six games. Thats ridiculous. And combined with his five TDs to date, equates to 10 TD's in six games. Sorry, not average by any means necessary. I'll give in non-ppr, but anyone that targeted him was relying on pretty massive production via receiving numbers. If you are in a non-ppr league then I'd assume whoever drafted him did so with that knowledge.
I can't stand any argument that takes plays away from end result. No argument that TDs are more volatile than yardage. Whats your point? He DID score 2 TDs. They counted in his score. he scored 20 points for me that week. McFadden scored 45 points in my league last week. If you take away the volatile TDs, he scored 20 points. yay, I can do it too.
Which is why the number 1 criteria when short term (yearly) production is opportunity (or situation), followed by talent, and lastly is previous weekly production.
I would much rather have a guy who week in and week out is put in a position to score, whether it be by pass catching, goal line duty, or the beneficiary of a heavy workload, than a guy who is not always given the opportunity and who has put up a few weeks of positive production. Meaning, even if Best had a bunch of poor weeks, his team will still put him in a position to score consistently and he has the ability to score significantly. You throw enough
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at the wall and some of it is bound to stick. You throw enough talented
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at the wall and more if it is bound to stick. Even if it doesn't seem to be sticking for a period of time. Much better situation than just throwing a small amount of
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at the wall and getting lucky and having it all stick the first few times......
This is also called the Shonn Greene Hypothesis or the Rudi Johnson Paradox.