Justin Forsett, RB, Seattle Seahawks (3 Viewers)

[Raiderfan32904]

Dude, for real. Let's talk about Justin Forsett. And not about how your better than me at fantasy football because you don't buy magazines.Are all Raiders fans this bitter? Al Davis could learn a thing or two from a fantasy magazine.

No man, I am not bitter at all. Ask the experts. Ask Mr. Bloom.Forsett was featured in the latest "stop the insanity"on the audible podcast. I am paraphrasing, but everything he said concurs with how I feel about him.Just trying to give you the real dope on Forsett. Too many mouths to feed on a bad team, that will play from behind all year.I am not bitter. see? ETA. I am not better at FF than you. At least I don't think that I am.

 

[Chewbanks]

Dude, for real. Let's talk about Justin Forsett. And not about how your better than me at fantasy football because you don't buy magazines.

Are all Raiders fans this bitter? Al Davis could learn a thing or two from a fantasy magazine.

No man, I am not bitter at all. Ask the experts. Ask Mr. Bloom.Forsett was featured in the latest "stop the insanity"on the audible podcast. I am paraphrasing, but everything he said concurs with how I feel about him.

Just trying to give you the real dope on Forsett. Too many mouths to feed on a bad team, that will play from behind all year.

I am not bitter. see?

ETA. I am not better at FF than you. At least I don't think that I am.

Being a receiving back diminishes the bad team effect, and in PPR can even be an advantage. *extraneous comma, BTW.

 

[MrSoup]

Dude, for real. Let's talk about Justin Forsett. And not about how your better than me at fantasy football because you don't buy magazines.Are all Raiders fans this bitter? Al Davis could learn a thing or two from a fantasy magazine.

No man, I am not bitter at all. Ask the experts. Ask Mr. Bloom.Forsett was featured in the latest "stop the insanity"on the audible podcast. I am paraphrasing, but everything he said concurs with how I feel about him.Just trying to give you the real dope on Forsett. Too many mouths to feed on a bad team, that will play from behind all year.I am not bitter. see? ETA. I am not better at FF than you. At least I don't think that I am.

Who are these "mouths to feed" that you speak of? Julius Jones? Ha! Leon Washington? Ha! TJ Imwashedupmanzadeh? Ha! John Carlson? Ha! Golden "Rookie" Tate? Ha!If you've watched any video of Justin Forsett, it's clear that he's the most dynamic and well-rounded RB on their roster. I don't need numbers or stats. All I need are the visuals. And he passes. He caught 40+ passes last year playing sparingly. I see that number bumping up to around 60+ with a full workload (which he's proven he can carry in college).And another term I don't like is "expert". What makes these people "experts" on a topic that is completely subjective. Just cause I don't make my income from fantasy football, doesn't mean I don't know just as much as an "expert". If you love experts opinions so much, I don't know why you don't like fantasy football magazines more. Just sayin.....Gotta keep your ego inflated in fantasy sports. That's what makes them fun to play. That, and winning of course.

 

[T with T]

Something funny I noticed the other day.

I was reading through Yahoo's Fantasy Football Magazine and they had an article on "This Year's Ray Rice".

4 writers each picked 5 players. NOT ONE PICKED JUSTIN FORSETT! 25 picks, and not one was Forsett.

That's how under the radar this guy is right now.

Thanks fo the recommendation. I better pick up that copy of Yahoo FF Mag. They are some real sharks.

There's a reason Forsett is under the radar.

yahoo sucks they aren't sharks they no nothing... I picked ray rice up in a redraft last year in round 5 and also grabbed Miles austin in round 15... Im a shark

Im a shark in a swimming pool with Guppies

 

[MrSoup]

Something funny I noticed the other day.

I was reading through Yahoo's Fantasy Football Magazine and they had an article on "This Year's Ray Rice".

4 writers each picked 5 players. NOT ONE PICKED JUSTIN FORSETT! 25 picks, and not one was Forsett.

That's how under the radar this guy is right now.

Thanks fo the recommendation. I better pick up that copy of Yahoo FF Mag. They are some real sharks.

There's a reason Forsett is under the radar.

yahoo sucks they aren't sharks they no nothing... I picked ray rice up in a redraft last year in round 5 and also grabbed Miles austin in round 15... Im a shark

Im a shark in a swimming pool with Guppies

I overpayed to secure Chris Johnson in 2008.I overpayed to secure Ray Rice in 2009.

I would like to think I'm a shark as well.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Im a shark in a swimming pool with Guppies

 

[coachjim]

I posted this on a Forsett dynasty thread June 8th:

I don't care about dynasty but- as I said before- I know Forsett's uncle Dewayne and we talk about JF every week. Before, during and after the Lendale thing, Carroll has always been preparing Forsett to carry a big load. Lendale was a cheap flier, only because Carroll coached him at USC. What hasn't been publicized is that LenDale has a bum knee. He's dealt with it since October 2007.

Anyway......... Forsett is in for a great year unless he does something to screw it up - and I hear nothing but tales of devotion, hard work and ambition about this kid. Unless he gets hurt in camp I plan on reaching a round or two early to make sure I get him.

Leon Washington has a metal rod holding his tibia and fibula together, LenDale is gone, and Julius Jones is just a bridesmaid like Bernie Parmalee. Forsett is my #1 sleeper of the year and the biggest pure RB sleeper in several years. He's still under the radar as camp approaches.

1130 rushing yards

8 rushing TDs

305 rec yards

41 rec

1 rec TD

Thanks for the inside info. It's great that you have a contact that is hyping Forsett. I think you are a little too close for your own clear perspective. The fact is that Coach Carroll in the last 4 years at SC never rode any of his RB's the way you are projecting. His style is to ride the hot hand. I bet that every Seattle RB will be the hot hand and simultaneously in the dog house in consecutive weeks. It will be like trying to catch lightning in a bottle. I give Forsett the following totals:

750 yards

4 rushing TDs

40 rec, 350 yards, and 2 TDs

When Carroll was at SC he probably had 4 runnung backs each year better than anyone on the Seattle roster right now. He had the choice of some prtty talented guys to ride the hot hand with. He does not have that choice now. I think Forsett will be his guy. PS: SC could probably have beaten Seattle 3 out of the last 4 years straight up.

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

I posted this on a Forsett dynasty thread June 8th:

I don't care about dynasty but- as I said before- I know Forsett's uncle Dewayne and we talk about JF every week. Before, during and after the Lendale thing, Carroll has always been preparing Forsett to carry a big load. Lendale was a cheap flier, only because Carroll coached him at USC. What hasn't been publicized is that LenDale has a bum knee. He's dealt with it since October 2007.

Anyway......... Forsett is in for a great year unless he does something to screw it up - and I hear nothing but tales of devotion, hard work and ambition about this kid. Unless he gets hurt in camp I plan on reaching a round or two early to make sure I get him.

Leon Washington has a metal rod holding his tibia and fibula together, LenDale is gone, and Julius Jones is just a bridesmaid like Bernie Parmalee. Forsett is my #1 sleeper of the year and the biggest pure RB sleeper in several years. He's still under the radar as camp approaches.

1130 rushing yards

8 rushing TDs

305 rec yards

41 rec

1 rec TD

Thanks for the inside info. It's great that you have a contact that is hyping Forsett. I think you are a little too close for your own clear perspective. The fact is that Coach Carroll in the last 4 years at SC never rode any of his RB's the way you are projecting. His style is to ride the hot hand. I bet that every Seattle RB will be the hot hand and simultaneously in the dog house in consecutive weeks. It will be like trying to catch lightning in a bottle. I give Forsett the following totals:

750 yards

4 rushing TDs

40 rec, 350 yards, and 2 TDs

PS: SC could probably have beaten Seattle 3 out of the last 4 years straight up.

No

 

[JohnnyU]

Something funny I noticed the other day.

I was reading through Yahoo's Fantasy Football Magazine and they had an article on "This Year's Ray Rice".

4 writers each picked 5 players. NOT ONE PICKED JUSTIN FORSETT! 25 picks, and not one was Forsett.

That's how under the radar this guy is right now.

Thanks fo the recommendation. I better pick up that copy of Yahoo FF Mag. They are some real sharks.

There's a reason Forsett is under the radar.

yahoo sucks they aren't sharks they no nothing... I picked ray rice up in a redraft last year in round 5 and also grabbed Miles austin in round 15... Im a shark

Im a shark in a swimming pool with Guppies

Anyone who has to tell others he's a shark probably isn't.

 

[JohnnyU]

Not sure if this has been posted.

From Rotoworld, I thought was interesting. http://www.rotoworld.com/content/features/...articleid=35798

Seattle's RBBC: Don't Force It

There is already an open DataReader associated with this Connection which must be closed first.

PRINTER FRIENDLY Offseason Low Down Archives

Justin Forsett was one of "my guys" early last season. I recommended him several times as a flier in my weekly Waiver Wired columns, and he went on to thoroughly outplay Julius Jones while far surpassing expectations. The only problem? A sizable contingent of fantasy owners and football analysts have gone on to overstate the fantasy value and NFL potential of an excellent role player.

Oddly enough, the "Free Forsett" movement came to a screeching halt in early May after the Seahawks parted with a few trinkets to acquire a mediocre short-yardage back during the draft. Forsett's ADP between May 12 and May 24 was the middle of the 13th round (check the "Graph" box on Forsett's line to see ADP history). Two months later, after Seattle had unceremoniously dumped LenDale White, Forsett's ADP skyrocketed all the way to the early sixth round as the 26th running back off the board.

So if Leon Washington is nothing more than a wild card and Julius Jones is clearly a less effective back, why not draft "J-Force" in the sixth-round as a borderline RB2/3? Well, let's take a deeper look:

Forsett's first coaching staff, back in the Mike Holmgren era, considered him a fringe player and lost him on waivers. His 2009 staff, led by Jim Mora and Greg Knapp, considered him a role player to the point where Jones was re-installed as the starter later in the season in the face of Forsett's superior play. While the current regime insists they appreciate his skills, the draft-weekend acquisitions of Washington and White show a clear lack of faith in Forsett as a feature back. The reports that the Seahawks were "quite interested" -- and still may be -- in Marshawn Lynch show the same lack of faith in Forsett as anything more than a role player.

Pete Carroll's recent history at USC shows a marked tendency toward a backfield-by-committee approach. As Carroll recently reminded us himself, Forsett isn't even ahead of Jones or Washington on the depth chart heading into training camp.

At 5'10/194 with a physical running style, Forsett isn't built to hold up to a feature back's pounding. Like many smaller backs, he can't sustain a rushing attack game-in and game-out for 17 weeks. And you can bet his coaches are well aware that he had 20+ carries just one time last season (versus the Rams). He came out of that game "questionable" for the next game and was clearly "not himself" for the following three weeks.

If he regains his pre-injury form, Washington brings a similar skill-set in a more talented and proven package. Forsett may have to hold off a superior player for passing-down and two-minute drill snaps this season, and that's where the majority of his fantasy value lies.

As our friend Sigmund Bloom from Footballguys keenly pointed out, Forsett's impressive 2009 metrics skewed heavily toward garbage-time production against nickel defenses that were mailing it in or had at least "taken their foot off the gas pedal." In short, he's not nearly as good as his small sample size numbers suggest he is. Don't bank on those metrics staying static against base defenses.

Seattle had all of seven rushing touchdowns last season. Even if we give the Seahawks the benefit of the doubt for a slight offensive upgrade, there are still at least a half-dozen backs with roles similar to Forsett but operating in more desirable offenses, i.e. Ahmad Bradshaw, Donald Brown, Steve Slaton, Darren McFadden, Reggie Bush, Chester Taylor, Darren Sproles, Tim Hightower.

If Forsett projects to receive 12-16 touches per game in a committee attack, where is the fantasy upside in a lower-tier offense? His 4.60-to-4.70 forty speed will prohibit long scores, and he's certainly not the early favorite for goal-line duties. Heck, even Quinton Ganther is being mentioned as a potential solution inside the 5-yard line.

I have little doubt that Forsett can excel as a situational player, especially in Seattle's zone-blocking scheme. Realistically, that makes him a passable RB3 option starting in the eighth or ninth round as a player with a shot at startable RB2 value for stretches of the season. More ideally, he's a flex option for PPR league owners willing to ride out the "hot hand" roller coaster of a committee attack.

For Dynasty and keeper league owners, Forsett is a "must-sell" heading into the 2010 season. He lacks the combination of staying power, special talent, and stability that provides long-term value.

Follow Chris Wesseling on Twitter!

 

[Hooper31]

... as for u saying Forsett isn't a gamebreaker u must not be a sea fan son... wake up 1000 yards from scrimmage and 5.4 ypc with that pitiful line wake up, he will be 1500 yard scrimmage guy with 5 plus ypc

Son? You're use of slang as a means to be derogatory isn't necessary. If anything, it shows you're reaching for an argument that isn't tangible. Not a Seattle fan? As far as the input goes in this forum, I am likely one of the most passionate and knowledgeable Seattle fans. I've watched every snap of every game since the early 80s. I've had to record so many of them on DVR to write game recaps for this website that I've literally lost count. I did that job for a lot of years. I follow five different Seahawk blogs and beat writers on a daily basis. My resume as a knowledgeable Seahawk is extensive. Further, I'm not a blind homer. I try to be as objective as possible.

If my opinion means nothing to you, no sweat. You're not looking for analysis, you're looking for acceptance for you hopes with regard to Forsett. I understand that, and you're more than willing to go on as you please. But really, why do this? Why try to make a stand when you don't really know the situation. You have no idea who played the offensive line positions for Seattle last year. You have no idea who played well or poorly. You have no idea what to expect from each of those linemen for the coming season.

Here's a favor. Read this blog. Don't trust only my opinion of the Seahawks. Ask around if you really want input from knowledgeable Seahawk fans. John Morgan is the best out there in covering the Seahawks. He's objective and he's thorough. If you want more, Clare Farnsworth has covered the Seahawks since the inception of the team in the late 70s. Here is a link to his blog on Seahawks.com.

Lastly, I would love for Forsett to explode and have a monster season. I want my team to do well. I think he's best RB we have on the roster and I hope he gets a solid chance to be a feature RB. However, there are obstacles blocking this from happening. There are lots of facets to the Seattle offense that need to click for Forsett to get that chance. Sadly, I have my doubts that all those little stars will align themselves for this to happen. Hasselbeck's health? Offensive line play? WRs that can make plays downfield? You're asking a lot of things to happen this season that were very far from happening last season.

 

[moderated]

I can't wait to see the difference in projections for forsett between the message board and staff.

Message board - 1,400 total yards/10tds LOL'able

Staff - 900 total/5tds

Forsett owners need to get a grip.

 

[T with T]

Something funny I noticed the other day.

I was reading through Yahoo's Fantasy Football Magazine and they had an article on "This Year's Ray Rice".

4 writers each picked 5 players. NOT ONE PICKED JUSTIN FORSETT! 25 picks, and not one was Forsett.

That's how under the radar this guy is right now.

Thanks fo the recommendation. I better pick up that copy of Yahoo FF Mag. They are some real sharks.

There's a reason Forsett is under the radar.

yahoo sucks they aren't sharks they no nothing... I picked ray rice up in a redraft last year in round 5 and also grabbed Miles austin in round 15... Im a shark

Im a shark in a swimming pool with Guppies

I overpayed to secure Chris Johnson in 2008.I overpayed to secure Ray Rice in 2009.

I would like to think I'm a shark as well.

You are

 

[T with T]

Something funny I noticed the other day.

I was reading through Yahoo's Fantasy Football Magazine and they had an article on "This Year's Ray Rice".

4 writers each picked 5 players. NOT ONE PICKED JUSTIN FORSETT! 25 picks, and not one was Forsett.

That's how under the radar this guy is right now.

Thanks fo the recommendation. I better pick up that copy of Yahoo FF Mag. They are some real sharks.

There's a reason Forsett is under the radar.

yahoo sucks they aren't sharks they no nothing... I picked ray rice up in a redraft last year in round 5 and also grabbed Miles austin in round 15... Im a shark

Im a shark in a swimming pool with Guppies

Anyone who has to tell others he's a shark probably isn't.

I dont have to tell anyone I just proudly blirted it out... sorry if I offended the guppies in here.. Real sharks know sharks when they smell them... All I know is I have been in 15 plus leagues for many years and have made over 1500 dollars each year for past 2 and Am steadily building my empire for the future... as far as your crap about experts and their predictions and all this knowledge and how you dvd, dvr all the games and u still think Forsett isn't gonna be a stud... do you watch it really or just say you do... Forsett is an animal and offense can't be worse then last year... had he been given a starting job last year with Moras pathetic ### he would have had good numbers... like the board pointed out 1000 yards from scrimmage 5 tds and 40 catches with less then 160 touches is phenomenal and a 5.4 ypc with no line???? how will his numbers regress as I can't see him do anything but get more touches 200 carries 60 catches is not out of the reason 1000 yards rushing and 500-600 rec with 8-9 tds is possible I dont care what the so called experts say. I remember when terell davis was on SP unit and drafted in 6th round.. the so called experts would have laughed at a lunatic crazy enough to say he was gonna rush for 2000. what about Grocery store turned Iowa cyclone stud coming to the nfl and winning superbowl mvp, league mvp and throwing for 41 tds... I had drafted warner that year in 99. I dont undermine other people or their analysis lets just say I have been there and scouted enough players for my own good. I think I can spot a gem when i see one and no one will convince me other wise... period. I think alot of other fbgers know this also. being on a bad team is a bad argument for a ppr guy.... I can see the receptions piling up and how is that a bad thing..... line can't get no worse, added okung, tate and like i said hass is healthy... yet i see 600 yards from scrimmage??? oh god please

 

[moderated]

Something funny I noticed the other day.

I was reading through Yahoo's Fantasy Football Magazine and they had an article on "This Year's Ray Rice".

4 writers each picked 5 players. NOT ONE PICKED JUSTIN FORSETT! 25 picks, and not one was Forsett.

That's how under the radar this guy is right now.

Thanks fo the recommendation. I better pick up that copy of Yahoo FF Mag. They are some real sharks.

There's a reason Forsett is under the radar.

yahoo sucks they aren't sharks they no nothing... I picked ray rice up in a redraft last year in round 5 and also grabbed Miles austin in round 15... Im a shark

Im a shark in a swimming pool with Guppies

Anyone who has to tell others he's a shark probably isn't.

I dont have to tell anyone I just proudly blirted it out... sorry if I offended the guppies in here.. Real sharks know sharks when they smell them... All I know is I have been in 15 plus leagues for many years and have made over 1500 dollars each year for past 2 and Am steadily building my empire for the future... as far as your crap about experts and their predictions and all this knowledge and how you dvd, dvr all the games and u still think Forsett isn't gonna be a stud... do you watch it really or just say you do... Forsett is an animal and offense can't be worse then last year... had he been given a starting job last year with Moras pathetic ### he would have had good numbers... like the board pointed out 1000 yards from scrimmage 5 tds and 40 catches with less then 160 touches is phenomenal and a 5.4 ypc with no line???? how will his numbers regress as I can't see him do anything but get more touches 200 carries 60 catches is not out of the reason 1000 yards rushing and 500-600 rec with 8-9 tds is possible I dont care what the so called experts say. I remember when terell davis was on SP unit and drafted in 6th round.. the so called experts would have laughed at a lunatic crazy enough to say he was gonna rush for 2000. what about Grocery store turned Iowa cyclone stud coming to the nfl and winning superbowl mvp, league mvp and throwing for 41 tds... I had drafted warner that year in 99. I dont undermine other people or their analysis lets just say I have been there and scouted enough players for my own good. I think I can spot a gem when i see one and no one will convince me other wise... period. I think alot of other fbgers know this also. being on a bad team is a bad argument for a ppr guy.... I can see the receptions piling up and how is that a bad thing..... line can't get no worse, added okung, tate and like i said hass is healthy... yet i see 600 yards from scrimmage??? oh god please

I like your style.

 

[Chewbanks]

Not sure if this has been posted.

From Rotoworld, I thought was interesting. http://www.rotoworld.com/content/features/...articleid=35798

Seattle's RBBC: Don't Force It

There is already an open DataReader associated with this Connection which must be closed first.

PRINTER FRIENDLY Offseason Low Down Archives

Justin Forsett was one of "my guys" early last season. I recommended him several times as a flier in my weekly Waiver Wired columns, and he went on to thoroughly outplay Julius Jones while far surpassing expectations. The only problem? A sizable contingent of fantasy owners and football analysts have gone on to overstate the fantasy value and NFL potential of an excellent role player.

Oddly enough, the "Free Forsett" movement came to a screeching halt in early May after the Seahawks parted with a few trinkets to acquire a mediocre short-yardage back during the draft. Forsett's ADP between May 12 and May 24 was the middle of the 13th round (check the "Graph" box on Forsett's line to see ADP history). Two months later, after Seattle had unceremoniously dumped LenDale White, Forsett's ADP skyrocketed all the way to the early sixth round as the 26th running back off the board.

So if Leon Washington is nothing more than a wild card and Julius Jones is clearly a less effective back, why not draft "J-Force" in the sixth-round as a borderline RB2/3? Well, let's take a deeper look:

Forsett's first coaching staff, back in the Mike Holmgren era, considered him a fringe player and lost him on waivers. His 2009 staff, led by Jim Mora and Greg Knapp, considered him a role player to the point where Jones was re-installed as the starter later in the season in the face of Forsett's superior play. While the current regime insists they appreciate his skills, the draft-weekend acquisitions of Washington and White show a clear lack of faith in Forsett as a feature back. The reports that the Seahawks were "quite interested" -- and still may be -- in Marshawn Lynch show the same lack of faith in Forsett as anything more than a role player.

Pete Carroll's recent history at USC shows a marked tendency toward a backfield-by-committee approach. As Carroll recently reminded us himself, Forsett isn't even ahead of Jones or Washington on the depth chart heading into training camp.

At 5'10/194 with a physical running style, Forsett isn't built to hold up to a feature back's pounding. Like many smaller backs, he can't sustain a rushing attack game-in and game-out for 17 weeks. And you can bet his coaches are well aware that he had 20+ carries just one time last season (versus the Rams). He came out of that game "questionable" for the next game and was clearly "not himself" for the following three weeks.

If he regains his pre-injury form, Washington brings a similar skill-set in a more talented and proven package. Forsett may have to hold off a superior player for passing-down and two-minute drill snaps this season, and that's where the majority of his fantasy value lies.

As our friend Sigmund Bloom from Footballguys keenly pointed out, Forsett's impressive 2009 metrics skewed heavily toward garbage-time production against nickel defenses that were mailing it in or had at least "taken their foot off the gas pedal." In short, he's not nearly as good as his small sample size numbers suggest he is. Don't bank on those metrics staying static against base defenses.

Seattle had all of seven rushing touchdowns last season. Even if we give the Seahawks the benefit of the doubt for a slight offensive upgrade, there are still at least a half-dozen backs with roles similar to Forsett but operating in more desirable offenses, i.e. Ahmad Bradshaw, Donald Brown, Steve Slaton, Darren McFadden, Reggie Bush, Chester Taylor, Darren Sproles, Tim Hightower.

If Forsett projects to receive 12-16 touches per game in a committee attack, where is the fantasy upside in a lower-tier offense? His 4.60-to-4.70 forty speed will prohibit long scores, and he's certainly not the early favorite for goal-line duties. Heck, even Quinton Ganther is being mentioned as a potential solution inside the 5-yard line.

I have little doubt that Forsett can excel as a situational player, especially in Seattle's zone-blocking scheme. Realistically, that makes him a passable RB3 option starting in the eighth or ninth round as a player with a shot at startable RB2 value for stretches of the season. More ideally, he's a flex option for PPR league owners willing to ride out the "hot hand" roller coaster of a committee attack.

For Dynasty and keeper league owners, Forsett is a "must-sell" heading into the 2010 season. He lacks the combination of staying power, special talent, and stability that provides long-term value.

Follow Chris Wesseling on Twitter!

. . . Or, Carroll and Co., with little opportunity to see Forsett in action by draft day and going off of his small size opted to stock up on cheap RB talent to add depth and competition to an overall weak position from last year and see what happens. Rather than a statement about Forsett this seems to have been a statement about the RB position in general. Even if Forsett is a stud can you be comfortable going into the season with only him as a reliable RB option if you're Carroll?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Here are those worrisome splits:

Leading big 16 114 7.1 1 0 0 0 0 17.4 Leading close 15 74 4.9 0 8 3 7 2.3 0 8.1 Tied 39 223 5.7 2 13 9 57 6.3 1 46.0 Trailing close 14 79 5.6 0 9 6 54 9.0 0 13.3 Trailing big 31 129 4.2 1 27 23 232 10.1 0 42.1
Notice that more than half of his receptions and the vast majority of his receiving yards come in garbage time

1st down 48 229 4.8 1 16 12 80 6.7 0 36.9 2nd 8+ 28 175 6.2 0 11 10 97 9.7 0 27.2 2nd 4-7 8 72 9.0 0 5 5 72 14.4 0 14.4 2nd 0-3 9 35 3.9 2 2 1 10 10.0 0 16.5 3rd/4th 7+ 9 69 7.7 0 20 13 91 7.0 1 22.0 3rd/4th 3-6 4 16 4.0 0 2 0 0 0 1.6 3rd/4th 0-2 9 23 2.6 1 1 0 0 0 8.3
Notice that his YPC is skewed stronger on 2nd and 3rd and long, which is usually against a nickel defense.

 

[T with T]

who cares most guys points come in garbage time what does that matter... do u have a fantasy that gauges non garbage time to garbage time... One thing im gonna tell u guys is dont over analyze, can get u in trouble sometimes.... just take what your eyes see and translate that into what you think... Sure maybe forsett wasn't drafted to be starter or thought he could handle load but after seeing a small portion of him I think he can take 250-300 touches because his compact short 5-8 195-198 ... he is CJ weight but shorter... he reminds me of Barry sanders in a way if you watch clips...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XLic7BhIkk

a guy like that sittin on bench doesn't make sense... i mean this shouldn't be rocket science peeps

 

[nlgb1]

Here are those worrisome splits:

Leading big 16 114 7.1 1 0 0 0 0 17.4 Leading close 15 74 4.9 0 8 3 7 2.3 0 8.1 Tied 39 223 5.7 2 13 9 57 6.3 1 46.0 Trailing close 14 79 5.6 0 9 6 54 9.0 0 13.3 Trailing big 31 129 4.2 1 27 23 232 10.1 0 42.1Notice that more than half of his receptions and the vast majority of his receiving yards come in garbage time

1st down		48	229	4.8	1	16	12	80	6.7	0	36.9	2nd 8+		28	175	6.2	0	11	10	97	9.7	0	27.2	2nd 4-7		8	72	9.0	0	5	5	72	14.4	0	14.4	2nd 0-3		9	35	3.9	2	2	1	10	10.0	0	16.5	3rd/4th 7+		9	69	7.7	0	20	13	91	7.0	1	22.0	3rd/4th 3-6		4	16	4.0	0	2	0	0		0	1.6	3rd/4th 0-2		9	23	2.6	1	1	0	0		0	8.3

Notice that his YPC is skewed stronger on 2nd and 3rd and long, which is usually against a nickel defense.

usually i agree with you sig, but this isnt a very intelligent comment. will he not get those same yards/carries/catches next year in addition to any extra carries? i dont see whats changing this year for forsett except for the fact that hes likely to get more carries and has an easier schedule.

also, those splits are the same for every running back in the NFL.

 

[Arch Stanton]

Here are those worrisome splits:

Leading big 16 114 7.1 1 0 0 0 0 17.4 Leading close 15 74 4.9 0 8 3 7 2.3 0 8.1 Tied 39 223 5.7 2 13 9 57 6.3 1 46.0 Trailing close 14 79 5.6 0 9 6 54 9.0 0 13.3 Trailing big 31 129 4.2 1 27 23 232 10.1 0 42.1Notice that more than half of his receptions and the vast majority of his receiving yards come in garbage time

1st down		48	229	4.8	1	16	12	80	6.7	0	36.9	2nd 8+		28	175	6.2	0	11	10	97	9.7	0	27.2	2nd 4-7		8	72	9.0	0	5	5	72	14.4	0	14.4	2nd 0-3		9	35	3.9	2	2	1	10	10.0	0	16.5	3rd/4th 7+		9	69	7.7	0	20	13	91	7.0	1	22.0	3rd/4th 3-6		4	16	4.0	0	2	0	0		0	1.6	3rd/4th 0-2		9	23	2.6	1	1	0	0		0	8.3

Notice that his YPC is skewed stronger on 2nd and 3rd and long, which is usually against a nickel defense.

usually i agree with you sig, but this isnt a very intelligent comment. will he not get those same yards/carries/catches next year in addition to any extra carries? i dont see whats changing this year for forsett except for the fact that hes likely to get more carries and has an easier schedule.

also, those splits are the same for every running back in the NFL.

Gotta admit that garbage time points still count for FF scores. Those of you down on the Seahawks should at least expect him to have better gt stats with a better OL. Personally, I think their offense is going to surprise a lot of people with Forsett, Tate, Carlson (bump him up for he will not have to stay in and block as much as he did and his hands are golden), and Housh taking the Engram role of 3rd down master and some fresh well liked blood at coach. We've been calling Carlson the Golden Receiver in his time here, but now we have the Golden Receivers and I expect them to live up to that name.Wrong thread, I know, but Curry will be a monster at LB this year. Carroll knows how to use LBs and is going to send him after the QB early and often.

 

[nlgb1]

just doesnt make sense to me... forsett gets close to nothing in terms of carries last year, plays great, and now this year the only changes have been positive (better opportunity for carries, okung, plays against afc west this year) and some ppl still find ways to be down on him. and since when do garbage time points have any less value than crunch time points?

dont get me wrong, everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but the reasons behind some of the naysayers opinions are just strange.

 

[Hooper31]

...and since when do garbage time points have any less value than crunch time points? ...

They don't count when you don't get them. If Seattle has a garbage time scat-back on the roster its Washington. If Forsett is the lead dog getting first and second down carries for a bad team I doubt he'll be the guy getting the mop up garbage time work.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

...and since when do garbage time points have any less value than crunch time points? ...

They don't count when you don't get them. If Seattle has a garbage time scat-back on the roster its Washington. If Forsett is the lead dog getting first and second down carries for a bad team I doubt he'll be the guy getting the mop up garbage time work.

Washington will factor a lot in Seattle's RBBC. After the game is out of hand, I'd think his workload would increase in garbage time with Forsett getting the first half carries as the "lead" back.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

It is never a good idea to count on garbage time points. As Hooper pointed out, if Forsett's role gets bigger, he's not in at garbage time. If he is at garbage time, that means he is still a bit player, not a lead dog. Garbage time points are about as volatile a factor as there is in FF.

The main reason I point out the splits is that people are citing Forsett's YPC and good receiving numbers last year as a reason to predict a breakout, but the reality is that just about any back getting carries against nickel defenses and catches against prevent defenses would have gaudy year-end averages.

 

[Hooper31]

It is never a good idea to count on garbage time points. As Hooper pointed out, if Forsett's role gets bigger, he's not in at garbage time. If he is at garbage time, that means he is still a bit player, not a lead dog. Garbage time points are about as volatile a factor as there is in FF.

The main reason I point out the splits is that people are citing Forsett's YPC and good receiving numbers last year as a reason to predict a breakout, but the reality is that just about any back getting carries against nickel defenses and catches against prevent defenses would have gaudy year-end averages.

Hey Sigmund,I think we are on the same page with regard to expectations for Forsett, but I disagree with this last sentence. I think the reality is there are very few RBs that are putting up such gaudy averages. Does every team have a guy like Forsett putting up eye-popping numbers in garbage time? No way. This is the main reason for all the hope. It represents potential, and no, not every team (or even most teams) have a guy doing this same thing. I guess the argument can be made that not every team is in the same situation as Seattle was last year playing from behind so much. Perhaps those circumstances cause this to be much more of a unique situation.

Time will tell, and hope springs eternal for all NFL fans as training camp gets ready to open.

 

[Chewbanks]

7 User(s) are reading this topic (4 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)

3 Members: Chewbanks, Leeroy Jenkins, Bob Magaw

The Shift key is the loneliest key on the keyboard.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Here are those worrisome splits:

Leading big		16	114	7.1	1	0	0	0		0	17.4	Leading close		15	74	4.9	0	8	3	7	2.3	0	8.1	Tied		39	223	5.7	2	13	9	57	6.3	1	46.0	Trailing close		14	79	5.6	0	9	6	54	9.0	0	13.3	Trailing big		31	129	4.2	1	27	23	232	10.1	0	42.1

Notice that more than half of his receptions and the vast majority of his receiving yards come in garbage time

1st down		48	229	4.8	1	16	12	80	6.7	0	36.9	2nd 8+		28	175	6.2	0	11	10	97	9.7	0	27.2	2nd 4-7		8	72	9.0	0	5	5	72	14.4	0	14.4	2nd 0-3		9	35	3.9	2	2	1	10	10.0	0	16.5	3rd/4th 7+		9	69	7.7	0	20	13	91	7.0	1	22.0	3rd/4th 3-6		4	16	4.0	0	2	0	0		0	1.6	3rd/4th 0-2		9	23	2.6	1	1	0	0		0	8.3

Notice that his YPC is skewed stronger on 2nd and 3rd and long, which is usually against a nickel defense.

i drew a different conclusion from the rushing data...in the upper table, what stands out for me, his YPC average across the five in-game team relative scoring designations...7.1, 4.9, 5.7, 5.6 & 4.2 - this could easily have been cited in support of him?even when parsed by various down and distance situations, his YPC average...4.8, 6.2, 9.0, 3.9, 7.7, 4.0, 2.6... most of the numbers are fine except for 3rd/4th and 0-2 yards needed... the odds are stacked against any RB in obvious running situations with a horrific OL...also, in the seven sections you have broken the down and distance stats into... the last five have pretty small sample sizes of 8, 9, 9, 4 & 9... as to his receptions, even if he doesn't rack up massive numbers in other than 2nd/3rd and long situations, that doesn't necessarily need to be a death blow to his prospects this season...much of his ultimate standing will be contingent on his rushing stats, and they look pretty impressive across the board, regardless of situation...

 

[Bob Magaw]

It is never a good idea to count on garbage time points. As Hooper pointed out, if Forsett's role gets bigger, he's not in at garbage time. If he is at garbage time, that means he is still a bit player, not a lead dog. Garbage time points are about as volatile a factor as there is in FF.The main reason I point out the splits is that people are citing Forsett's YPC and good receiving numbers last year as a reason to predict a breakout, but the reality is that just about any back getting carries against nickel defenses and catches against prevent defenses would have gaudy year-end averages.

lets not forget, until recently (possibly still), forsett's ADP was around RB30...if he starts and plays a significant role, all he has to do is be more productive than one of the worst starting RBs in the league to have upside (potentially considerable) from his ADP...i think another reason for optimism it would be remiss to not mention... he started like two games last year... barring injury, if he starts 16 (or anywhere close), and is used more, even lower YPC and reception average numbers across the board could still yield bigger year end totals and fantasy points...in a faceoff, you have to be prepared to take either side of a debate... if you were forced to cite his positives, what would you say? the first paragraph here seems very binary and fatalistic... if his role gets bigger, he isn't in garbage time = bad. if he is in garbage time, by definition he is a bit player = bad.sounds like he is doomed to failure no matter what... but are their other possibilities?if the OL and passing game are improved, could he do better in non-garbage time situations?maybe there is a danger in reading TOO much into last year's numbers, especially given that SEA has new coaching staff, scheme & personnel? if his role is bigger, he has the opportunity to rack up bigger totals... even if not at a stellar 5.4 clip... and how many of even his most ardent supporters (yes, even the strident mr. T) don't expect there to be SOME regression in that seemingly unsustainable average if he is used in a bigger role, across more situations...also, does it necessarily follow that if he is in during garbage time, he is a bit player? in recent years, anything after the 1st or 2nd quarter for the rams was usually garbage time... it is true that STL has had likely the worst backup RB situations in the league (criminally negligent, imo, but that is another story)... but even if they had, say, leon washington past few years... are you sure they would have yanked jackson the second they got in garbage time? of course, forsett isn't jackson, just trying to illustrate the concept that it isn't necessarily true that a RB playing in garbage time is by definition a bit player... we could probably look around the league and find other examples, from as recently as last year (jamaal charles, fred jackson, etc.)...some other reasons to suggest forsett could break out...okung HAS to be better, at the most critically important position on the OL...assistant HC alex gibbs could help in a few ways, and has turned lemons into lemonade before... he brings his zone blocking scheme, and can help coach the OL up... if the OL is improved and stabilized (and particularly the bleeding stops at LT), this could help in a number of ways...improves chances of hasselbeck remaining healthy...increases chances carlson won't have to block as much, which should help passing game... as could housh being in his second season... and golden tate could be upgrade at WR2, and among most productive rookie WRs... all these could open run game...last, but not least reason for optimism... the NFC west is probably the weakest defensive division in the NFL... the NFC west also gets the AFC west in interdivisional schedule... how many teams face a weaker run defense schedule than SEA this year?* not to mention, it will be hard for defense to not be improved, which increases chance they aren't in garbage time as much... if not, the positive that flows from that is they could be positioned to run MORE...they lose kerney and redding, but kerney has been hurt a lot, and redding didn't do much...tatupu is back... hawthorne put up monster numbers, but all the sources i came across were adamant tatupu was a huge loss... he is the QB off the defense, and makes the rest of his teammates better because of his off the charts football IQ... hawthorne, if he starts at WLB, could be an upgrade over hill... trufant is reportedly healthier (but could be breaking down)... earl thomas is a rookie, and may be a suspect open field tackler, but should help tremendously prevent explosive, back breaking plays on the back end... as you know, mayock called him one of the most instinctive safeties he has ever scouted...

 

[nlgb1]

the reason im predicting a breakout isnt because of stats, but because the guy is a great back. just try to take an unbiased view into some of his game tape. guys just gotten knocked because of his 40time and stature

 

[T with T]

just doesnt make sense to me... forsett gets close to nothing in terms of carries last year, plays great, and now this year the only changes have been positive (better opportunity for carries, okung, plays against afc west this year) and some ppl still find ways to be down on him. and since when do garbage time points have any less value than crunch time points? dont get me wrong, everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but the reasons behind some of the naysayers opinions are just strange.

well said I couldn't have said it better.

 

[T with T]

It is never a good idea to count on garbage time points. As Hooper pointed out, if Forsett's role gets bigger, he's not in at garbage time. If he is at garbage time, that means he is still a bit player, not a lead dog. Garbage time points are about as volatile a factor as there is in FF.The main reason I point out the splits is that people are citing Forsett's YPC and good receiving numbers last year as a reason to predict a breakout, but the reality is that just about any back getting carries against nickel defenses and catches against prevent defenses would have gaudy year-end averages.

lets not forget, until recently (possibly still), forsett's ADP was around RB30...if he starts and plays a significant role, all he has to do is be more productive than one of the worst starting RBs in the league to have upside (potentially considerable) from his ADP...i think another reason for optimism it would be remiss to not mention... he started like two games last year... barring injury, if he starts 16 (or anywhere close), and is used more, even lower YPC and reception average numbers across the board could still yield bigger year end totals and fantasy points...in a faceoff, you have to be prepared to take either side of a debate... if you were forced to cite his positives, what would you say? the first paragraph here seems very binary and fatalistic... if his role gets bigger, he isn't in garbage time = bad. if he is in garbage time, by definition he is a bit player = bad.sounds like he is doomed to failure no matter what... but are their other possibilities?if the OL and passing game are improved, could he do better in non-garbage time situations?maybe there is a danger in reading TOO much into last year's numbers, especially given that SEA has new coaching staff, scheme & personnel? if his role is bigger, he has the opportunity to rack up bigger totals... even if not at a stellar 5.4 clip... and how many of even his most ardent supporters (yes, even the strident mr. T) don't expect there to be SOME regression in that seemingly unsustainable average if he is used in a bigger role, across more situations...also, does it necessarily follow that if he is in during garbage time, he is a bit player? in recent years, anything after the 1st or 2nd quarter for the rams was usually garbage time... it is true that STL has had likely the worst backup RB situations in the league (criminally negligent, imo, but that is another story)... but even if they had, say, leon washington past few years... are you sure they would have yanked jackson the second they got in garbage time? of course, forsett isn't jackson, just trying to illustrate the concept that it isn't necessarily true that a RB playing in garbage time is by definition a bit player... we could probably look around the league and find other examples, from as recently as last year (jamaal charles, fred jackson, etc.)...some other reasons to suggest forsett could break out...okung HAS to be better, at the most critically important position on the OL...assistant HC alex gibbs could help in a few ways, and has turned lemons into lemonade before... he brings his zone blocking scheme, and can help coach the OL up... if the OL is improved and stabilized (and particularly the bleeding stops at LT), this could help in a number of ways...improves chances of hasselbeck remaining healthy...increases chances carlson won't have to block as much, which should help passing game... as could housh being in his second season... and golden tate could be upgrade at WR2, and among most productive rookie WRs... all these could open run game...last, but not least reason for optimism... the NFC west is probably the weakest defensive division in the NFL... the NFC west also gets the AFC west in interdivisional schedule... how many teams face a weaker run defense schedule than SEA this year?* not to mention, it will be hard for defense to not be improved, which increases chance they aren't in garbage time as much... if not, the positive that flows from that is they could be positioned to run MORE...they lose kerney and redding, but kerney has been hurt a lot, and redding didn't do much...tatupu is back... hawthorne put up monster numbers, but all the sources i came across were adamant tatupu was a huge loss... he is the QB off the defense, and makes the rest of his teammates better because of his off the charts football IQ... hawthorne, if he starts at WLB, could be an upgrade over hill... trufant is reportedly healthier (but could be breaking down)... earl thomas is a rookie, and may be a suspect open field tackler, but should help tremendously prevent explosive, back breaking plays on the back end... as you know, mayock called him one of the most instinctive safeties he has ever scouted...

Just curious was I mr T you was referring to :LOL

 

[Hooper31]

http://blog.thenewstribune.com/seahawks/20...camp/#more-6973

* The offensive starters were John Carlson at tight end, Willis at left tackle, Ben Hamilton at left guard, Chris Spencer at center, Max Unger at right guard, Sean Locklear at right tackle, T.J. Houshmandzadeh at split end, Deion Branch at flanker, Julius Jones at running back, Ryan Powdrell at fullback and Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback.

FYI. From the first practice of the first day of training camp.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Just to be clear folks, Im not down on Forsett as a player, Im down on drafting him at his current 6th (even 5th) round price. Just not enough there to support that kind of ADP imo.

 

[Sabertooth]

From CBS:

RB Julius Jones , last year’s starter, is in a battle with Justin Forsett for the starting job. Forsett has looked better for most of camp, but Jones had one of his best practices Thursday afternoon, hitting holes hard and breaking some long runs.

 

[swirvenirvin]

 

[rascal]

Looks like Leon Washington will start preseason game #3. Is he the back to target?

 

[identikit]

from Mike Sando of ESPN (via twitter):

'Justin Forsett to start at RB for the Seahawks, but Carroll says it's not clear which back will get the most carries.'

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

September 6, 2010 at 5:16 PMPete Carroll on Seahawks O-line coach: 'Really, it's not as drastic as you might think.'Posted by Danny O'NeilPat Ruel was getting ready to go to bed on Friday night when Pete Carroll called, talking to him about coming to Seattle given the impending departure of Alex Gibbs.Carroll ended up wondering how soon Ruel could get there, telling him there was a 7 a.m. flight.The Seahawks had a new offensive line coach on the field Monday, someone who is familiar with the principles of the zone-blocking scheme though he was learning the terminology the Seahawks are using. He is working alongside Art Valero and Luke Butkus, assistant coaches who work with the line.Carroll was asked how hamstrung this leaves the franchise just six days before the regular-season opener."Really, it's not as drastic as you may think," Carroll said. "First of all, Alex is an extraordinary individual. We were lucky to have him as we did. Our players were lucky to have the chance to be coached by him. He's one of the greats that ever coached in this league."We wish him the best, we love him and we hate to see him go, but it's something he had to do.""The other side of it is that Artie Valero takes over and Luke and Pat, and those guys are guys that can really coach the game. Our offensive-line work is already split up already so Art is totally familiar with running the meetings, totally familiar with installation, all the technique stuff, everything that we're doing. He has been actively involved in all of it."We have fortunately structured it right and we had this in mind from the beginning, Alex knew he would not be able to be here for a long time so we picked out a guy we thought would take over in great fashion. This is not a drastic step for us at all."Wait. Hold up. Gibbs was considered the most one of the most important hires for Seattle this offseason, someone with a firm and demanding style and a very specific blueprint for what he wants from his linemen.Now it's not a big deal he has gone a week before the season?Well, it's not quite that dramatic. It's just that Seattle assembled the staff with the idea someone would eventually take over."We were talking a couple of years at the most," Carroll said of Gibbs. "So we set out to get a guy we could entrust to take this thing over. So it's sooner than we had anticipated, so I feel comfortable with this transition and our players will, too." Comments (0) E-mail