I see NO EVIDENCE to suggest that New England has any plans to use him as an every down, 300+ carry per year back. In fact, the evidence will support a contrary opinion that they will continue to use him has part of a RBBC.
As for Jeff's analysis on QBs with big passing TD seasons, like with Manning after his monster year, I wouls set the over/under bar at 35. However, I would also point out that the Patriots had a much tougher schedule last year compared to this year (AFC South and NFC East last year vs AFC West and NFC West this year). On paper, that schedule looks very conducive to having another solid passing year.
And one does not have to look to this year to see the changes in the Patriots offense. Going back to last year, NE averaged 41 ppg in their first 10 games but only 27 ppg over their final 9 games. They should again be at or near the top of the league in scoring, but they should not approach record breaking status again. If I were to guess, I would say they will average 30 or 31 ppg this time around.
However, that does not automatically mean that their rushing yardage or TD will jump up. In fact, their rushing output was not that bad last year (they ranked 13th in rushing yards and 5th in rushing TD) even though at times they completely abandoned the run.
Could you give an example of the evidence supporting a contrary opinion? Perhaps the number of talented young RBs that New England signed or drafted?
Since you asked . . .His rookie year people felt he would take over for Dillon and didn't. Dillon ended up having more carries than Maroney did.
With Dillon out of the picture, people thought Maroney would take over for Dillon and would have a 2000/15 season (total yards/total TD). Instead, Maroney and Morris split the workload almost exactly evenly last year.
Then the thought process was that Maroney was banged up and they were saving him for later in the season and in the playoffs. He did do well in the post season, but he also had 3 games where he didn't even see 10 carries in a game (even when he was healthy).
NE still wants to try to keep Maroney fresh and have him available for a title run. Last year down the stretch, he had games with ypcs of 3.2, 3.1, 3.4, 2.3, and 2.4 (and 2.6 in the SB). (Yes, he did better in 2 games in the post season, but that was part of the plan to limit his workload and save him for the playoffs.)
He doesn't play on passing downs, and Kevin Faulk was on the field almost as much as Maroney was last year.
In 27 regular season games, he's had 20 carries 3 times. Last year he had exactly 4 receptions and caught passes in only 2 games. NE also has no qualms about bringing in Evans or Eckels at the goal line and would rather pass it in the red zone than run it in.
All the same RBs return from last year and Morris is supposed to be healthy and fully recovered by opening day. So I ask what changed this year vs last year that would lead us to believe that the Pats are going to change what won them 18 games in a row to a system that will give Maroney 350 touches in a season. The bottom line is that they don't need to run Maroney into the ground to win, so they would be shooting themselves in the foot to wear him out by mid season.
Bryan Westbrook with the #10 pick. And Maroney was gone before the #12 pick in the other.
