LB Lawrence Timmons - Projections and Dynasty Value? (1 Viewer)

[mambomambo]

Norton and Rudnicki,

It looks like you are both projecting him very high compared to where is being drafted in IDP leagues....am I missing something on Timmons?

in a 2pt per tackle w bonuses at 5 tackles, 4 pts per sack 1 pt per assist, he looks like TOP 12/10 LB material based on your rankings...

What is your long term outlook on him for 16 team deep dynasty leagues

 

[mambomambo]

Norton and Rudnicki,It looks like you are both projecting him very high compared to where is being drafted in IDP leagues....am I missing something on Timmons?in a 2pt per tackle w bonuses at 5 tackles, 4 pts per sack 1 pt per assist, he looks like TOP 12/10 LB material based on your rankings...What is your long term outlook on him for 16 team deep dynasty leagues

anyone?

 

[steelcityman]

I loved him last year, and he was hurt too much to put up big numbers, so this year he'll explode. The Steelers did get Larry Foote back, Foote may be a better option on 1st and 2nd downs this year.

Long term, he has 1-2 years to make it in Pittsburgh before the major revamping of the LB corps. Harrison, Farrior and Foote will be old. Woodley wants a huge contract and may not get it....the Steelers did draft 2 OLBs this year, and will sign ILBs if Timmons doesnt cut it.

He has all the ability one could desire, he needs to be healthy and do much better on run stops to have a 3 down LB role IMO.

I like him, but no where near where the rankings have him, I would put him below Urlacher, Briggs, Greenway, Mayo at this point. If he gets to play on 1st down this year, his numbers will be much better and he could be the top 15 LB some think he is. I guess just pay attention to camp if you can. Right now, a great LB3, and a stretch for your LB2.

Just my opinion.

 

[treat88]

Kid still has to learn to quit taking false steps in the run game. He can't stack and shed at all. At this point he is a liability in the run game.

In the pass game he is one of the better cover backers in the league. He can run with any TE and is even tasked with some man assignments against slot WR's. He can't beat a RB block on the blitz, he better come clean or he's getting stood up.

I consider him a nickel backer with upside.

Marginal LB3 in big play leagues. Depth in all other formats.

 

[mambomambo]

So basically both of you think Norton and Rudnicki are both out of touch with Steeler's LBs?

 

[Jene Bramel]

I haven't seen ADP data for IDPs yet this year (if it's out there it's likely skewed heavily toward dynasty drafts), so I'm not sure where he's been (or will be) drafted this year.

Our consensus redraft ranking (excluding Waldman who doesn't have him ranked in his top 60) is LB25, ranging from Norton's LB23 to my LB31. Purely on raw projections, both Aaron and John have him in the top 15 overall linebackers. However, his 190 or so projected fantasy points is part of a huge tier -- there are 16 players +/- 10 fpts of Timmons' 190 projection. Both projections have him with over 75 solos and a healthy number of sacks, so it's safe to assume that the projections reflect potential upside, while the rankings have built in the downside risk.

The knock on Timmons has long been instincts and point of attack play, as treat noted. His range and athletic ability aren't in question. I think some of his inconsistency and low tackle counts are related to that, but much is due to the continually bottom three tackle opportunity the Steelers' defense provides itself.

I don't see why Timmons couldn't top 80 solos and add a handful of sacks at some point in the future but, unless you're willing to tolerate a lot of risk with your upside LB2 pick, he's hard to draft in the top 20 overall in dynasty or redraft leagues.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I think the Steelers offense will struggle a bit this year. The offensive line still doesn't appear very strong, they traded away Holmes and Ward is a year older, plus Ben could miss 4 to 6 weeks. This should keep the defense on the field a bit more than they have been in the past. I'm basically projecting a significant upgrade in solo tackles for the entire Steelers defense as a whole and I think Timmons is one of the players who will benefit the most. I don't think Farrior has a ton left and I assume Foote is mostly depth so Timmons should be an everydown player when healthy. I might be a bit high on his tackles, but his big play potential is what gives him most of his value and really sets him apart from most other inside linebackers. That also makes him a tough player to project.

 

[steelcityman]

So basically both of you think Norton and Rudnicki are both out of touch with Steeler's LBs?

With Timmons I think they could be. What has Timmons shown that makes anyone think he is a top 15 LB? He is not good v the run and the Steelers got Larry Foote back, to help v the run. Its not rocket science. I think Timmons could be awesome, but I wouldnt take him as my LB1 or even LB2 based on what I have seen so far. Has HUGE play ability, like INT returned for a TD, but also has games with 3 tackles and 2 assists.

Personally, I think he could be a better OLB, speed off the corner, can cover a TE or back out of the backfield.

As far as the Steeler offense, it will be on the field more, they are going to run Mendy and Dwyer at teams all day. Their OL will be better, Pouncey will be starting at RG, Kemoautu is back at LG and Willie Colon is quietly becoming a great tackle. Heath Miller is one of the best blocking TEs in the game, and the Steelers will have their FB back, Frank, the Tank, Summers, big busting FB with a year under his belt. And Mike Wallace will make people forget Santonio Holmes.

 

[Bob Magaw]

is it possible foote was brought back because he represents cheap depth, familiarity with the system... and farrior is in his mid-30s?

wasn't foote deemed expendable in the first place (leading to one year stint in DET) because of the emergence of timmons...

didn't PIT have DL injuries last year? return to health of aaron smith, et al, could be a boon for timmons... vilma is a better 4-3 MLB than 3-4 ILB (based on playing both systems with jets... and saints at times), some MLB/ILBs do better when they don't have take on interior OL and stack and shed a lot, but are freed up to run to the ball... no doubt he has versatility to play outside as well (as does beason, will witherspoon when he was younger)... the good thing about him... when used alongside a strong tackling presence like farrior (or foote) at ILB, the outside pass rushing pressure generated by harrison/woodley can be magnified/intensified by his inside surge... he has to be one of the best blitzing MLB/ILBs in the league...

was last year his first as starter? if so, he could conceivably have upside with more reps, experience...

i think timmons is listed at about 235, but is now about 250... so he is similar size to ray lewis and urlacher, but is probably faster and more explosive...

below is an article with a photo from 2008... he looked like a beast THEN...

http://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/2008/...aining-camp-pri

* below is a march rotoworld blurb about foote's expected status (at least at that time) sourced to DET press...

Steelers ILB Larry Foote confirmed that he will not compete for a starting job in Pittsburgh.

"I'm just here for depth," Foote said. "I accept that role ... You gotta be winning. It's all about winning in this league, and having fun." He'll provide injury insurance behind Lawrence Timmons and James Farrior.

** timmons fun fact...

middle name is Olajuwon...