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Mahomes' value in 6pt/passing TD dynasty (1 Viewer)

Tornacl

Footballguy
Curious as to the Shark Pool's opinion on Mahomes' value in a 6 point per passing TD dynasty league.  It is obviously not as high as it is in a SuperFlex/ 2QB league, but it is still higher than the standard 4 point per passing league.  QBs are normally undervalued, IMO, but what he did last year was truly amazing for a 1st year starter (or anyone for that matter).  As a point of reference, in a 6 pt/PTD league, he outscored the 2nd highest score by 100 points and 6 ppg.

1) Where would you start to consider drafting him in a start-up? 

2) Or in the case of an existing league, what would it take for you to give him up?  Pretty hard to improve your team without a massive offer from someone, but what would that offer have to be?  Let's assume you are in a complete re-build and need help across the board, only because if the rest of your team is good, why would you consider trading him?

As for me, I normally like to wait to draft a QB, however, with my first ever dynasty league start-up draft I did break my own rule to draft a young Peyton Manning.  With Mahomes, I would strongly consider drafting him in this format in the middle of the 1st round.  I know he's not going to outscore everyone every year, but we have to draft based off of potential.   There's really no way to know, but I didn't see anything that made me feel like he isn't going to be a great QB for a LONG time.  I could draft him, and not have to worry about the QB position for the next decade.  The way I see it, the Chiefs were a contending team, yet they aggressively went after him.  Then, while he was sitting on the bench, Alex Smith had himself a career year, yet they must've seen enough in practice to know Mahomes was special, so much so they traded Smith away, with no viable option to turn to if Mahomes would've struggled.  That tells me Reid and company weren't surprised by Mahomes' success (at least not too much), which means it wasn't a fluke in their eyes.

The second scenario is tougher IMO.  You're in an established league with holes all over your roster, but how do you improve your team by trading him?  The hard part is finding a team that is willing to give up enough assets to make it possible to improve your team.  I don't think I could do it for picks alone, because it would take so many picks that I doubt anyone would really be willing to trade that many picks.  Draft picks are crap shoots anyway, with most owners only hitting on about 50% of the 1st round picks.  I would have to get at least one proven young player, plus another lottery pick or two (either high-upside prospects or 1st round draft picks). 

 
I just can’t see him reproducing those numbers. I don’t have a good reason for it other than numbers that high are typically not sustainable. Even thinking he’ll finish #1 this year is a stretch - I would take the field in a heart beat. 

 
Tornacl said:
As for me, I normally like to wait to draft a QB, however, with my first ever dynasty league start-up draft I did break my own rule to draft a young Peyton Manning.  With Mahomes, I would strongly consider drafting him in this format in the middle of the 1st round.  I know he's not going to outscore everyone every year, but we have to draft based off of potential.   There's really no way to know, but I didn't see anything that made me feel like he isn't going to be a great QB for a LONG time.  I could draft him, and not have to worry about the QB position for the next decade.  The way I see it, the Chiefs were a contending team, yet they aggressively went after him.  Then, while he was sitting on the bench, Alex Smith had himself a career year, yet they must've seen enough in practice to know Mahomes was special, so much so they traded Smith away, with no viable option to turn to if Mahomes would've struggled.  That tells me Reid and company weren't surprised by Mahomes' success (at least not too much), which means it wasn't a fluke in their eyes.
I just selected him 2.04 in 12 team 6 pt per TD Dynasty startup draft.   I would like to have gotten him a little later, but he would have been gone next pick (3.09)

The sacrifice was a solid WR1/TE1 (B Cooks/K Allen/T Kelce).  I believe the WR depth better suited to finding quality over the QB1 for the next decade.  

 
I don't think that 6pt passing TD's really change the relative value of QB's with respect to other QB's.  The only thing that does is lower the value of rushing QB's because they don't get the bonus on rushing TD's. I also don't think Mahomes repeats that big of a gap over the next guy in line.  He had a record breaking year and should regress some. 

I think Mahomes is a top 5 QB moving forward and will be nice to have as a set it and forget QB for the next several years but I in a 1 QB league (regardless of scoring) I wouldn't be over drafting a QB.  There are too many quality fantasy QB's available now. 

 
How many teams in the league?

A 10 or 12 team league would slightly reduce his value, probably to a second round pick.

A 14 team league- late first

A 16 team league- After Zeke, Gurley, and Barkely- 1.04

 
How many teams in the league?

A 10 or 12 team league would slightly reduce his value, probably to a second round pick.

A 14 team league- late first

A 16 team league- After Zeke, Gurley, and Barkely- 1.04
I agree that league size is probably a bigger factor for QB's than a 6pt passing TD scoring system. 

 
I don't think that 6pt passing TD's really change the relative value of QB's with respect to other QB's. 
Well it would at least to some extent.

If you have one QB throw 20 TDs and another throw 30 TDs: In 4 pts/TD leagues the difference in points between the two would be 40 points and in 6pts/TD leagues their difference in value is 60 points.

 
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Well it would at least to some extent.

If you have one QB throw 20 TDs and another throw 30 TDs: In 4 pts/TD leagues the difference in points between the two would be 40 points and in 6pts/TD leagues their difference in value is 80 points (or doubled).
True......but outperforming the field by that much is more of an anomaly and shouldn't really be looked at as fact for future performance.  Generally all QB's go up so their relative value to the position still remains about the same.  I think it hurts rushing QB's more than elevating the overall QB value.  There are a lot of quality Fantasy QB's so drafting the 5th vs the 10th projected QB isn't a huge advantage because the projected 10th QB is just as likely to finish in the top 5 when all said and done. 

 
I don't think that 6pt passing TD's really change the relative value of QB's with respect to other QB's.  The only thing that does is lower the value of rushing QB's because they don't get the bonus on rushing TD's. 
This is a good point. Only 6 point leagues that give extra points for rushing TDS would be exempt from this.

 
True......but outperforming the field by that much is more of an anomaly and shouldn't really be looked at as fact for future performance.  Generally all QB's go up so their relative value to the position still remains about the same.  I think it hurts rushing QB's more than elevating the overall QB value.  There are a lot of quality Fantasy QB's so drafting the 5th vs the 10th projected QB isn't a huge advantage because the projected 10th QB is just as likely to finish in the top 5 when all said and done. 
I think people severely under-appreciate the relative value of QBs in 6 pt/PTD leagues.  It really makes QBs more valuable, at least it should.  For example in a relatively standard 6 pt/PTD (-2 p/int) PPR league, Mahomes out performed the highest non-QB by 11 points/game (Mahomes had 548 pts, McCaffrey had 385 points).  The #2 QB was 7 ppg less and #12 QB was 12 ppg less.

Also, the RB#24 in this league scored 12 ppg, and the WR#36 scored about the same 12 ppg.  So, having Mahomes last year was like having an extra player in your lineup.

 
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I think people severely under-appreciate the relative value of QBs in 6 pt/PTD leagues.  It really makes QBs more valuable, at least it should.  For example in a relatively standard 6 pt/PTD (-2 p/int) PPR league, Mahomes out performed the highest non-QB by 11 points/game (Mahomes had 548 pts, McCaffrey had 385 points).  The #2 QB was 7 ppg less and #12 QB was 12 ppg less.

Also, the RB#24 in this league scored 12 ppg, and the WR#36 scored about the same 12 ppg.  So, having Mahomes last year was like having an extra player in your lineup.
Mahomes' season was a record breaking season.  I wouldn't expect that to be the norm.  Sure he is likely to be a top 5 QB moving forward but I don't expect him to have that large of a gap over the next QB in the future. 

With respect to QB's it doesn't change the relative value within the position (barring another record breaking season which you cannot really predict).  So there are still quality QB's to be had late that won't have much of a value drop with respect to the QB position.  That is really the important aspect.  If you can get a QB that scores virtually the same as a QB taken 4 or 5 rounds earlier why reach for the early QB and miss out on the RB/WR/TE that is a bigger value with respect to position?  Increasing the scoring from 4pt/TD to 6pt/TD doesn't change the relative value barring an unpredictable all time record breaking season.

 

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