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Mike Thomas, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

In the meantime, as always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Mike Thomas, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

Player Page Link: Mike Thomas Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

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He could be the WR1 this season, and there are enough other offensive options (MJD, Marcedes Lewis, Jason Hill) to give him some space. I predict Garrard will continue to be mediocre enough to hold off Gabbert at QB for one season, so Thomas will have some decent balls thrown his way. The real wildcard is whether some FA arrives. Ocho?, Santana Moss?, Braylon Edwards?, James Jones?

In 2010, Thomas went 66/820/4, and MSW went 43/560/7.

If the roster remains stable with no significant FA, I think Thomas should pick up one-third of MSW's receptions, and produce a stat line like this:

80 rec, 1000 yds, 7 TDs

If a significant FA WR arrives, Thomas in 2011 will look a lot like Thomas in 2010:

65 rec, 800 yds, 5 TDs

 
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Mike Thomas emerged as a sleeper last year and took the job of Mike Sims Walker as WR1 in Jacksonville. However, Jacksonville's QB situation is very unstable and they've always been a run first type team. It's hard for me to get overly excited about any Wr's in Jacksonville but I can see Mike Thomas providing some value in drafts this year that start 3 Wr's.

68 catches for 880 yards and 6 Td's

 
The stat I zone in on with WR's is catch %. It gets to the heart of a WR's potential within an offense. And in regards to Mike Thomas, it was plenty healthy at 66% last year. Other than Sims-Walker and Thomas, no other Jags' wide receiver was targeted more than 22 times last year. Twenty...two! What that says to me is - like it or not Mike, keep your head on a swivel because here comes the ball. If he takes even 30% of what Sims-Walker's absence leaves on the table we're looking at an 83 reception, 1,030 yard receiver. Touchdowns be damned, that's a bona fide #2 fantasy receiver. I dare say one of most undervalued names at the position this year.

Projections: 83 rec, 1,030 rec yds, 7 TD's

 
I like the Mike Thomas to Steve Smith (Car) comparisons. Both are smallish, quick WRs who also have strength and can make long gains. This is only Thomas's third year in the league and yet he already has 114 receptions. Toward the end of 2010, he became the go-to WR for the Jaguars.

I worry a little that his production will dip in 2011 as the Jags could transition to a rookie QB, but then Garrard has never been that solid of a QB himself. FBG's current ADP for Thomas shows him falling to 103 overall and WR 37, which seems low for a guy coming into his third season and also finished the year rather strong. In 2010, he ranked as the WR 31 and that was for non-ppr. With 66 catches, it would seem that he would have finished higher in ppr.

The Jags could look to add a WR FA before the season and of course, depending on who that is Thomas could be slipped back to #2 for targets again. I guess that I am kind of on the fence, but if he is there at WR 35 or so, it seems to me like I would be happy to pull the trigger.

Mike Thomas 16 gms 120 targets 76 catches 63.3% 912 yds 12.0 ypc & 12 rushes for 120 yds 10.0 ypc and 7 TDs

revised to correct the career receptions

 
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I like the Mike Thomas to Steve Smith (Car) comparisons. Both are smallish, quick WRs who also have strength and can make long gains. This is only Thomas's third year in the league and yet he already has 163 receptions. Toward the end of 2010, he became the go-to WR for the Jaguars.I worry a little that his production will dip in 2011 as the Jags could transition to a rookie QB, but then Garrard has never been that solid of a QB himself. FBG's current ADP for Thomas shows him falling to 103 overall and WR 37, which seems low for a guy coming into his third season and also finished the year rather strong. In 2010, he ranked as the WR 31 and that was for non-ppr. With 66 catches, it would seem that he would have finished higher in ppr.The Jags could look to add a WR FA before the season and of course, depending on who that is Thomas could be slipped back to #2 for targets again. I guess that I am kind of on the fence, but if he is there at WR 35 or so, it seems to me like I would be happy to pull the trigger.Mike Thomas 16 gms 120 targets 76 catches 63.3% 912 yds 12.0 ypc & 12 rushes for 120 yds 10.0 ypc and 7 TDs
Wanted to point out that Thomas does not have 163 receptions, I think you are confusing that with his targets.
 
Mike Thomas has a chance to be the lead WR in JAX, but it's hard to get excited about that when you have MJD touching the ball 20-25 times a game and Garrard as the QB. But with MSW likely departing, Thomas will have some value as a WR3.

70 rec, 925 yds, 6 TD

 
Mike Thomas has a chance to be the lead WR in JAX, but it's hard to get excited about that when you have MJD touching the ball 20-25 times a game and Garrard as the QB. But with MSW likely departing, Thomas will have some value as a WR3.70 rec, 925 yds, 6 TD
Those numbers would have been about #20 last year, so he'd be a #2 with that type of production. I think he hits about 80 catches, 1020 yds, 6 TDs. He's a good football player and I don't agree with those who think his ceiling is top 30.
 
I love Thomas, but I see too much hype around him these days. Some of it is justified, but most of it is based on the assumption that MSW is gone and Thomas will take over all the targets.

I don't think that is true for several reasons.

One, have you guys actually watched JAX? I live nearby, so I get to watch a bunch of Jaguars football and I can tell you Mike Thomas is borderline unusable outside his specialty: the slot, the shorter routes and the special plays like end-arounds. I can't imagine that Jack Del Rio will game-plan with Thomas being his go-to receiver for any plays designed to go beyond 15-20 yards. That puts a serious dent in Thomas' upside.

Two, let's look at the data. Weeks 11, 13, 16, 17 are the closest we get to seeing what happens post-MSW. Mike Thomas got 25% of the targets in those four weeks compared to 22% in the other twelve. Hardly a substantial increase. The much bigger beneficiaries were the TEs at first and then Jason Hill.

Three, Jason Hill. He outperformed MSW and his replacements Tiquan and Osgood. Right now there is a strong interest in Jacksonville to use Hill as the starter in 2011. As of right now, I think he is the best bet to take 90% of the MSW role. That leaves Thomas with basically the same role as last season.

Finally, people quote Thomas' 2010 stats a lot. Fair enough, but don't forget 60 yards and 1 TD came on that once-in-a-lifetime play.

70/800/4 receiving + 8/80/0 rushing

 
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I love Thomas, but I see too much hype around him these days. Some of it is justified, but most of it is based on the assumption that MSW is gone and Thomas will take over all the targets.I don't think that is true for several reasons. One, have you guys actually watched JAX? I live nearby, so I get to watch a bunch of Jaguars football and I can tell you Mike Thomas is borderline unusable outside his specialty: the slot, the shorter routes and the special plays like end-arounds. I can't imagine that Jack Del Rio will game-plan with Thomas being his go-to receiver for any plays designed to go beyond 15-20 yards. That puts a serious dent in Thomas' upside.Two, let's look at the data. Weeks 11, 13, 16, 17 are the closest we get to seeing what happens post-MSW. Mike Thomas got 25% of the targets in those four weeks compared to 22% in the other twelve. Hardly a substantial increase. The much bigger beneficiaries were the TEs at first and then Jason Hill. Three, Jason Hill. He outperformed MSW and his replacements Tiquan and Osgood. Right now there is a strong interest in Jacksonville to use Hill as the starter in 2011. As of right now, I think he is the best bet to take 90% of the MSW role. That leaves Thomas with basically the same role as last season.Finally, people quote Thomas' 2010 stats a lot. Fair enough, but don't forget 60 yards and 1 TD came on that once-in-a-lifetime play.70/800/4 receiving + 8/80/0 rushing
Why do people keep pointing out the one catch for a 55 yard TD as if it shouldn't count? I don't care if Mike Thomas never catches another pass in his life, but it doesn't make any sense to take away his best play and not do it to others. Most people score a TD during the season they are likely to never repeat. Its going to be awfully difficult if we have to go through and not count players numbers on plays that are fluky.
 
One, have you guys actually watched JAX? I live nearby, so I get to watch a bunch of Jaguars football and I can tell you Mike Thomas is borderline unusable outside his specialty: the slot, the shorter routes and the special plays like end-arounds. I can't imagine that Jack Del Rio will game-plan with Thomas being his go-to receiver for any plays designed to go beyond 15-20 yards. That puts a serious dent in Thomas' upside.
Thomas was used mostly as a possession type last season, but ran a lot of deep routes at Arizona. While his size works against him on that fron he has the speed to get deep if used that way.He's a young WR that has some room for improvement in his overall game, so let's not act like "what you see is what you get". Nevertheless even if you want to pigeonhole him as a slot possession type - there's plenty of value to that in a ppr league.
 
Why do people keep pointing out the one catch for a 55 yard TD as if it shouldn't count? I don't care if Mike Thomas never catches another pass in his life, but it doesn't make any sense to take away his best play and not do it to others. Most people score a TD during the season they are likely to never repeat. Its going to be awfully difficult if we have to go through and not count players numbers on plays that are fluky.
Not sure what you mean by 'shouldn't count'....of course it should count. I am only highlighting that I wouldn't want to rely on that play for projection purposes. It makes a reasonably significant difference, in my opinion. Without that play Thomas loses 25% of his TDs and drops from 12.4 yds/reception to 11.7.
Thomas was used mostly as a possession type last season, but ran a lot of deep routes at Arizona. While his size works against him on that fron he has the speed to get deep if used that way.He's a young WR that has some room for improvement in his overall game, so let's not act like "what you see is what you get". Nevertheless even if you want to pigeonhole him as a slot possession type - there's plenty of value to that in a ppr league.
Interesting, I didn't know about his time college time. Even so though, based on observations, I am okay with pigeonholing him in the short routes role. I just don't think it's very likely that he will grow into a main guy. I certainly agree there is value in that type of player in PPR. The solid floor is definitely there. The debate is more about where the ceiling is.
 
Why do people keep pointing out the one catch for a 55 yard TD as if it shouldn't count? I don't care if Mike Thomas never catches another pass in his life, but it doesn't make any sense to take away his best play and not do it to others. Most people score a TD during the season they are likely to never repeat. Its going to be awfully difficult if we have to go through and not count players numbers on plays that are fluky.
Not sure what you mean by 'shouldn't count'....of course it should count. I am only highlighting that I wouldn't want to rely on that play for projection purposes. It makes a reasonably significant difference, in my opinion. Without that play Thomas loses 25% of his TDs and drops from 12.4 yds/reception to 11.7.
Thomas was used mostly as a possession type last season, but ran a lot of deep routes at Arizona. While his size works against him on that fron he has the speed to get deep if used that way.He's a young WR that has some room for improvement in his overall game, so let's not act like "what you see is what you get". Nevertheless even if you want to pigeonhole him as a slot possession type - there's plenty of value to that in a ppr league.
Interesting, I didn't know about his time college time. Even so though, based on observations, I am okay with pigeonholing him in the short routes role. I just don't think it's very likely that he will grow into a main guy. I certainly agree there is value in that type of player in PPR. The solid floor is definitely there. The debate is more about where the ceiling is.
I wasnt being literal when I said doesn't count. I just meant if you aren't going to subtract everyone elses fluky TDs, why do it to Thomas. The guy put himself into position to make a play and he did. Its doesn't really matter either way, the play had no bearing on where I would draft him. Not a big difference between 3 and 4 TDs. 825 yards or 775, didn't really matter either. Those are both pretty good numbers for a 2nd year WR.Even if he only gets 10% of Walkers production and matures just a little bit more in that offense and as a player, he should be good for 900 yards and 4-7 Tds, with some upside. I wouldnt want him for anything more than a WR3, but I could easily see him finishing in the top 24.
 
I don't disagree in principle. Doesn't matter if it is Thomas or some other player. If I know of a play that is as big of an outlier and as unlikely to happen again, I certainly try to cut it out.

The thing is - there are not many plays as big stat-wise and as unlikely to happen again as the Mike-Thomas one. He might not have a 55 yard TD (that is not a catch-and-run) for the rest of his career. So it's not the same as excluding a 99-yard DeSean catch. The Mike-Thomas play has a much, much lower chance of happening again. I can't project keeping such a huge outlier in the data set.

Let me ask you this: do you project Miles Austin's rushing stats with or without his Thxgiving TD?

 
I don't disagree in principle. Doesn't matter if it is Thomas or some other player. If I know of a play that is as big of an outlier and as unlikely to happen again, I certainly try to cut it out. The thing is - there are not many plays as big stat-wise and as unlikely to happen again as the Mike-Thomas one. He might not have a 55 yard TD (that is not a catch-and-run) for the rest of his career. So it's not the same as excluding a 99-yard DeSean catch. The Mike-Thomas play has a much, much lower chance of happening again. I can't project keeping such a huge outlier in the data set.Let me ask you this: do you project Miles Austin's rushing stats with or without his Thxgiving TD?
I would take into consideration that he rushed for a long TD when trying to project his numbers. Like I said though, a players stats from the previous year only play a small role in my projections. So wether Austin had a rushing TD or not, or Thomas caught a hail mary, or Owens has a Dolphins defender kick him a TD pass isnt going to matter when I make my next years projections. Talent + opportunity. I already have an idea of how good the player is, I just want to know is the opportunity going to be there. Since Austin ran for a long TD, I think be is likely to get an opportunity to do it again. Same goes for Thomas, Owens, or anyone else who scores on a fluky play.
 
I find it hard to get too excited about any Jax fantasy players this year. Maybe Garrard has some decent numbers in the first 8-10 games throwing when they're behind. Thomas may be the primary beneficiary of that. But I don't expect them to win much, and that means we're probably going to see Gabbert in there when they start out 3-7. Maybe M Lewis is a decent play this year, but I'm staying away from Jags unless they slide pretty far below adp.

 
Thomas reminds me of a young Hines Ward. He's the possesion/mid range guy in a run happy offense. He doesn't have the amazing skills of the elite guys, but he works hard & takes advantage of what is thrown his way. He'll be consistent week to week, but won't put up the huge 35pt games that can almost win your matchup single handedly.

He should benefit slightly from MSW leaving & no other definite WR1 on the roster. Biggest threat in my opinion is Gabbert taking over for Garrard early in the year and not connecting with Thomas.

I think his floor is 900/5 (a modest increase of 5.75 ypg & 1 more TD) & his ceiling is 1000/8.

 
High: 85 catches 1100 8

Low: 60 catches 750 4
I like this thinking a lot. On the upside, MJD is effective again, keeping 8-9 players in the box, creating opportunities for WRs. As clearly the best WR on the team, Thomas benefits most. Pass game still sucks no matter what, but at least a player with talent can get some plays.On the downside, QB struggles continue, no one else emerges to take pressure off, and Thomas puts up a lot of weak games mixed with on occasional decent one. Pass game not only sucks, but rookie QB troubles makes even talented WRs look like journeymen.

I can just as easily see either. In redraft, I'm looking at him as a WR4 candidate. I don't see enough upside to get overly excited (I like his skills, but JAX passing game will be turrible). I think he'll be a fine WR3, but without enough real upside when there are plenty of guys with big upside that are getting drafted at the same time. He's kind of like a par pick (well, bogey for me). He's not going to hurt you, but he's probably not going to help a lot either.

 
We'll see. I've got him most leagues. I'm not too concerned. Garrard is solid, but certainly not special.

I liked him before because I thought he could be a reliable PPR threat. With Garrard gone, he might actually have a whiff of upside. David Garrard and a WR having a monster year was probably never going to happen.

 
I got him as my WR3, but will be starting Hines this week. I wanna see MT do something before plugging him into my lineup.

DaTruth

 

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