Mr. Retukes
Footballguy
Sooooooo........has any receiver ever tallied 400+ yards in his first 2 career starts?
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Miles Austin - Top 3-5 Upside? (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Bob Magaw
- Start date
thatguy
Footballguy
Just came in there to post: this has to be one of the best two game stretches by a WR in league history. NFL historians/statisticians, what's the verdict on this?
hankey2mlh
Footballguy
Ochocinco had 450 yards in back-to-back games a few years ago.
kremenull
Footballguy
This kid is simply a fantastic runner once the ball is in his hands. Is super-quick out of his routes, accelerates instantly with power, leading to many broken tackles......not a fluke, simply marvelous talent. Austin is one of the most explosive outside playmakers in the game right now. Hi RAC ability/yardage is off the charts. I'd take him over an array of name players moving forward....Steve Smith (he used to be this good), D-Bowe (will never be this good), and Jennings (should be this good, what happened?).
MCguidance
Footballguy
thats too bad...youd miss a lot of information here...to say the leastTo say the least. I'll just ignore this thread from this point forward.
I didn't start him today, but he has my attention.
kremenull
Footballguy
I've got your back on this one Bob.....Most people are always late to the party in every arena....from investing money to investing in their fantasy players......Once the herd comes along, it's too late. Great call by you early in the process.SOLD!
MCguidance
Footballguy
I am sold on Austin, but Bob wasn't here until after last week, or am I wrong? I wasn't here either, just saying.
meanjoegreen
Footballguy
That's a rude thing for a staff member to say.Andy Herron said:
Andy Herron
Footballguy
You're right. My bad.
tombonneau
Footballguy
I agree with you, but makes you wonder WTF the coaching staff was thinking watching practices, etc. and starting Crayton over him the last two years?
NatronIsMean
Footballguy
I'll ride this "fake long TD run" fluke all the way to a title, baby! Haha!!
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
growing up, there was only one book in my house...the collected works of e.e. cummings...by not attending to caps or conventional punctuation, i can shunt more brain horsepower to pure football thinking...like, whether miles austin was a buy or not...
MCguidance
Footballguy
I was being sarcastic, I have been riding the coat tails of Miles the last two weeks also. He is carrying my team.
Brock Middlebrook
Footballguy
NatronIsMean
Footballguy
Oh, I know you were! I was jumping on your sarcasm bandwagon along with you, albeit not verbalizing it as well as possible. Looking forward to the 3rd week of this fluke...ScottyDog said:
NatronIsMean
Footballguy
Well said as always, Bob. Punctuation and sentence structure be damned!Bob Magaw said:
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
kremenull said:
I'll adress several comments interspersed through the thread in this & possibly other posts to follow.Incoming message from the LPEWS (Long Post Early Warning Sytem) tracking station...
Good to see you back, GG. Missed your posts in the FFA. For you, I'll capitalize & punctuate. I'll be freakin Strunk and White (except for the freakin part)... but only in this thread!
Don't Give Credit Where It Isn't Due Dept.
I can't claim credit for being a tout, per another poster (and wasn't earlier) . I did pick him up in two of my four dynasty leagues off the waiver wire in the preseason (EXPENSIVELY - at the cost of most of my yearly free agent $ allocation... than again, he's no doubt become far more expensive in the intervening time
). Earlier in the season, I was "wrong", at least in the timing, because I based that move on the rationale that he had superior talent and would quickly ascend to a starting role. I had hoped/thought that might take place even as soon as prior to the season. After last Sunday, I had the opportunity to scoop him up in a third league for what seemed like a price not factoring in his potential stardom (presumably calculated to sell at the top), which I think he has, and availed myself.What prompted this thread last week, was that it was his first start. It's not like there was a lot to talk about previously. I would credit the outstanding Cowboys blogger Rafael Vela, or rather some research of his that I saw cited, stating that Romo seemed to like throwing to Austin... WHEN HE WAS AFFORDED THE CHANCE (not often - I think he had just 33 career receptions going into this week).
What was at issue, and I think it is an important point to note and take stock of even now, are questions such as...
How good is Miles Austin (ie - what is his INTRINSIC talent level, apart from opportunistically exploiting a fortunate opponent, broken tackles, etc.)?
Also, of course, if you are high on his prospects, you would be more inclined to obtain him BEFORE he blows up. For the wait and see camp, they accepted the tradeoff that if he did blow up his price goes up (maybe to the point where you now have to pass), but this risk could be mitgated by the fact that if he fell flat on his face, you don't make a rash judgement-decision-move. And (OK, I lied about the Strunk & White part) there must have been many heavy doubters (perhaps less this week?) who thought he was a complete and utter flash in the pan.
To partially sum up this thread leading up to his SECOND start, enthusing over a player after just one game brings about a predictable chain and sequence of events. Historians and quants (I mean that not disparagingly, but admiringly and respectfully) pipe up that usually these kinds of fluke-seeming outbursts and eruptions ARE aberrations and anomalies. They are right. Usually they are.
This is why I endorsed parsing the historical/statistical data with a scouting-based approach (either here, or in the other Austin thread, or both). Names like Frisman Jackson were summoned.
Seriously, a lot of names were brought up in a off-the-top-of-the-head sense, so just kidding. But the point i'd like to hammer home (if you remember nothing else about this thread, BUT that... cool... and apologies in advance for the next over the top didactic potion of the programming). Not only are historical/statistical methods not mutually exclusive with a scouting-based approach... augmenting one approach with another (or better, several others) can greatly inform and collectively empower you thought process and insights, in a way that would be absent given lone separate approaches.BTW, I'm not saying anybody said anything to the contrary, so this isn't intended as a straw man argument. Just, in case the point was missed, I think it is important and worth emphasizing.
I know most FBGs don't look at things in just ONE way. It is probably almost a given that most FBG literati/cognoscenti know better than to lock into just one way of organizing and interpreting ever-incoming information from breakouts, whether from rookies, veterans maturing and developing, players changing teams, teammates LEAVING, etc.), and avoid succumbing to the kind of intellectual laziness & sloppiness of citing numerous times when such an instance was a fluke. It is eminently true most of the time, that is a given and something I think literally everybody can agree on. Almost a trivial point and a platitude, if it weren't for the fact that sometimes novices (I was one once
) can get overly excited by one game outburts, and it is a good and useful public service to warn against making snap decisions based SOLEY on the outburst, apart from any further and deeper analysis.Per the above, I'm not advocating going with scouting material at the exlusion of the statistical/historical strands, but complementing and augmenting. Incorporating multiple information streams as a habit can be an intelligence amplification agent (writ large, collectively, that is exactly how I view FBG and the SP). But with some players, like seeing a few games of Randy Moss, Eric Dickerson, Bo Jackson, you can SEE the difference. I'm not comparing Austin with them, but just stating the principle, it is possible in some cases, you can tell a lot, QUICKLY, from the film. Difference making ability tends to roar off the screen.
A lot of people already have multiple kinds of databases in their head. Its just a matter of following up on the usually right fluke scepticism, statistical/historical data, and on a CASE-BY-CASE BASIS, parsing it or vetting it with scouting observations and insights. This goes for all the football crutches we employ... for instance, all Florida WRs are NFL busts. These old saws & heuristics make great slaves but poor masters. They usually are right until they are wrong (like with Darrell Jackson). It would be a shame and an unfortunate over-generalization if some laid off Percy Harvin in dynasty leagues by weighting that factor heavily... especially when the admittedly horrific track record is usually referencing ex-HC Steve "I Never Stay Past 5:00" Spurrier's tenure.
And so on.
so moving past the parts where outbursts are usually flukey and not too much should be based on them... that is where the scouting type information should enter the picture. I've learned a lot from independent scouts like Frank Coyle, Mike Mayock, FBGs like Bloom, Matt Waldman (just this year, in his stupidly good Weekly Gutcheck Column), Bob Henry. Norton, Bramel & Rudnicki in my IDP realm. If there is a tout in this thread, I'd tout those touts. Read and Learn. But Look, too.
I'm also interested in trying to look at different ways to parse stats, even at the historical level.
I'm still interested in discovering the top 5-10 best starts for a WR (or two games starts, to echo a post upthread) historically.
Also, top 10 highest career YPTD (Yards per TD), for all WRs with now 39+ career receptions.
For example, there was a healthy, robust debate in the preseason about whether DeAngelo Williams season was flukey (especially regarding the 20 TDs). There was some back and forth on how difficult it would be to replicate (the majority camp looking prescient, or at least sensible
), not quite counter-balanced by a faction that was super high on him based on scouting observations (in some cases, dating back to his incendiary work at Memphis). Without getting too much into the right or the wrong in this particular case (in dynasty leagues DeAngelo still very compelling), somebody, possibly Doug Drinnen, Jason Wood or a non-staffer (?) got the bright idea of looking at all the RBs with at least one 20+ TD season. Two things that would kind of smack even the most die-hard sceptics in the face about the list (I won't reference it here)... it was really short, and there were some really good RBs on it. In fact, I think pretty much no losers in the lot, and a fair percentage of Hall of Famers.While some would say that method failed and was deceptive and misleading... few saw how horrendously Delhomme would perform to start the season. Another way to parse that list may have been to further break it down by looking at how many RBs in the 20+ TD club had never had a 1,000 yard rushing season before. That might have winnowed the list down, & it wouldn't have been as impressive.
But I digress...
After the stats and deeper historical look, THAN break down the lists of statistical/historical oddities on a scouting basis (for others interested, i included an updated "reprint" of 21 scouting dimensions ((just a start, out of probably the proverbial thousands of things)) tacked on to the end of last weeks ETTG column*). Look for patterns and parallels. Exclusionary criteria and heuristics. Be wary of spurious, baseless and unfounded assumptions/connections (I'll riff on the old garbage in garbage out folk wisdom and coin... connected gargage is still garbage
).Weekly Tale of the Tape
6-171-2 (59 & 22 yard TDs)
Tying up loose ends - Prior to this week, within an admittedly infintesimally small body of work, Austin historically took it to the house every 5.5 times he caught the ball... and averaged 40+ yards per TD.
Against the Falcons he upped the former number (two scores in six catches) and held steady on the latter (40+ yard average TD)
* NFL.com highlights link below (note this ain't all sloppy tackling
... even the most ardent and strident flukey proponents would probably concur that ATL has a better defense than KC). Like the man said above (and I don't mean me), at some point, if he keeps running away from people, that would likely augur an aggregate perceptual shift of a tectonic proportion and magnitude (that part was paraphrased a little). At some point he must gain recognition for tackle-breaking prowess, explosiveness and RAC skills. And not to put too fine a point on it, but if he is so quick, fast, agile and elusive for a 6'3" 215 lb big man (runnin with the ball) that he is capable of running away from DBs in the open field, that would seem to render the whole tackle breaking part moot. There are far worse problems to have than a young WR that is fast and explosive enough to take it to the house... WITHOUT A HAND BEING LAID ON HIM (like the 59 yard TD where it looked for a moment that the DB might have the angle). think about it.Highlights are also good for those that aren't fond of reading cervantez-length dissertations on the merits of incorporating scouting-based forms of observations and insights into there other working methods, if they aren't already. Ironically, they probably left long, long ago. As a reward to patient readers, I'll append the ETTG material in my next post below (replete with warning). Its paid content, so call it a free sample. And it is thread-relevant (depending on your definition of tangentially related).
One observation was that on his second TD, Austin has done that almost same exact thing (spinning out of the grasp of a defender after a quick out along the sideline) something like 3-4 times this year. Maybe it is a testament to his tackle breaking ability. But it is impressive how quickly he turns upfield after he catches the ball. THAT quickness puts him in position to evade the CB and do far worse damage after the catch. I meant to say earlier & am re-editing in after the fact that another reason to like Austin is his WR positional coach (Ray Sherman?). Really impressive resume/lineage of WRs that came under his tutelage if you look it up... starting with Jerry Rice.
I am DEFINITELY, DEFINITELY not advocating blowing up your teams to secure Austin at any cost (do so at your own peril). But I'd like to think that GG would find it reasonable and non-controversial to suggest approaching such a contemplated move, if you are so inclined, only at the right price, given not only enthusiasm based on highlights, but underpinned/scored with and tempered by the sobering, heavy inertia comprising the body of historical/statistical fantasy football science called fluke-ology.
http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2009102509/2...wboys#tab:watch
** I didn't read all of what looked like a typically thoughtful GG epic, and hope to address more of the football part of it, if not all of it, soon. I wanted to get to the above post, but I did scan the beginning. I would just like to point out that we may not necessarily be disagreeing on some points so much as talking about different things at times. I'm definitely not anointing him as the next great WR yet. I do think he has top 10-20 upside as soon as the rest of this season. But I acknowledge and concede I am going out on a limb there. If I were being safe, conservative and playing the percentages, that statement would seem not just bold but reckless (and respect for this position is why I've tried to employ a liberal sprinkling of caveats and provisos in the prospective acquisition part). Part of my idiosyncratic stance (hopefully increasingly less so) stems from my being not only very high (I could see a quote stopping strategically short of the parentheses) on what I find to be Austin's formidable athleticism and talent, but also Romo's. I'm not calling Austin top 10-20 material if he is on the Browns.
Everybody should follow what their eyes tell their brain. A 100 different FBGs might see 100 different things from the highlights. If you aren't seeing it, I respect that. If are seeing it, than you would decide accordingly.
And this is the part where it is hard for me to see GG disagree with the following statement. IF Austin fulfills his promise, in retrospect, waiting two years won't be the best of advice in terms of maximizing your bang for trading buck. We didn't need to see Adrian Peterson or Calvin Johnson for two years to tell they are pretty good. I realize they were MUCH higher pedigree, but my point would be that film of their existing body of work, such as it was even in college, was all you really needed to know.
*** Proofed out of respect for GG. I may have dangled some participles, though (its been a while)... not to mention a parenthetical thought bludgeoning that would probably be third degree battery if syntactical butchering was illegal.
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THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA
Footballguy
Hey can we get a new thread title.... (2 week fluke performances)? 
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Maybe I'll keep doing it each week until it vanishes into the aether of ridiculousness (but then I'll have to keep changing the sub-title for each fluke-trendy excuse-of-the-week...* Per above, the addendum to last week's ETTG.If you didn't read my post immediately above, this post may seem really strange and out of place (in fact, it still may even if you did)... safely skip it if strictly looking for miles austin info (seeing as you are in a Miles Austin thread). A few notes...1 - Probably mentioned below, but list of scouting criteria intended to be suggestive and representative, not comprehensive and exhasustive. 2 - Mostly updated in the preseason. Parts are already dated (Braylon Edwards situation changed sooner than expected). Hopefully not much will be so timestamped. 3 - The idea of the different scouting criteria/factors as a series of transparency overlays is a corny metaphor, & I could have thought of something better in the interim since earlier iterations, but I tend to spend time on the updates part. You know what I mean...Hey can we get a new thread title.... (2 week fluke performances)?
4 - I belive this was in preseason free content previously...5 - This was already pre-capped and punctuated and everything (but a high degree of probability it was written barefoot)... Breaking Down the Scouting ProcessThis article will present an outline of some of the many possible factors that might be weighed and evaluated in a thorough vetting of prospects. The list is intended to be representative and suggestive, rather than comprehensive and exhaustive. More important than being a rigid template of criteria is if this serves as a springboard for your own thinking, or launching pad for finding your own ways to formulate and organize the material.One way to look at the process of scouting and breaking down prospects is to think of a series of stacked transparency OVERLAYS, comprised of individual sheets themselves containing a partial image with different and separated color codes, which when combined together render a more coherent picture of the prospect being examined. Having a more complete picture of individual prospects will help to make more informed decisions in drafting and dynasty roster construction.The process which this metaphor is trying to capture involves being able to keep track of and grasp different kinds of information about a prospect (observing not only the surface features but drilling down and attending to many smaller details and keeping them in mind simultaneously) when making judgments and decisions about players and rosters. Certainly with veterans there will be much quantitative and historical data to draw from through their body of work, stats and trends. But with rookies and younger players suddenly thrust into greater prominence (whether through injuries, cuts, trades, beating out a vet for a starting gig, etc.), other means must be used to make inferences about how the physical traits, athletic gifts and skill sets they bring to the table will translate to the NFL, as well as how they are likely to separate themselves into poor, average, good and outstanding pro talents.Needless to say, scouting different positions and breaking down their relative prospects may entail prioritizing certain traits and attributes more than others. That said, all positions will share many common characteristics in the evaluation process. Below are 21 (BLACKJACK!) traits, attributes and categories which might be worth taking a closer look at, in trying to build a "tool kit" of ways by which to vet potential prospects and help parse their chances at the next level. Feel free to add your own and expand your repertoire of tools to bring to bear in attacking the problem of scouting prospects.• PHYSICAL TRAITS - Scouts know triangle numbers (height, weight and 40 time) are often correlated with success or failure, so they do their homework and know what constitutes current acceptable, exceptional and inferior numbers for the respective positions. They aren't immutable, ironclad "laws", but can be another valuable layer and level of data to look at. Knowing the rules helps to know when it is OK to break the rules. Though MIN DB Antoine Winfield (1.23 - 1999) doesn't have prototypical measurables for a stud run support CB (5'9" 180), he is such an aggressive, skilled and voracious tackler that his lack of prototypical size is rendered irrelevant. In his first few years in the league there were rumblings from scouts about whether NYG RB Brandon Jacobs (4.9 - 2005) was "too tall" to be feature back material in the NFL. At 6'4" he is one of the taller RBs in league history. He answered a lot of doubters with an impressive 2008 campaign, and so long as he can stave off injury concerns, has the proven ability to effectively silence any remaining critics. • OTHER MEASURABLES - Measurables such as the vertical jump can be a great indicator of explosiveness. Cone drill and shuttle times which test quickness and change-of-direction can be useful in sorting WRs and DBs, among other positions. The Broncos prized rookie Knowshon Moreno (1.12 - 2009), consensus top RB in the class, doesn't have blistering stopwatch speed (4.6 40), but his exceptional quickness and lateral agility should serve him extremely well at the next level. Pro Bowl RB Brian Westbrook has a similar profile, and while he has surprisingly ordinary speed, he is blessed with special burst, suddenness, instant acceleration and short area explosion. Jaguars rookie WR Jarrett Dillard (5.8 - 2009) is just 5'11" but his ridiculous, Dominique Wilkins/David Thompson-esque hops (42.5" VJ) no doubt contributed mightily to his breaking NCAA records for career and season receiving TDs.• ATHLETICISM AND VERSATILITY - DBs that can just handle run support but are a liability in coverage and the converse case of DBs that are only adept in coverage but severely limited in run support are fast becoming dinosaurs. DBs like Troy Polamalu (1.16 - 2003), Bob Sanders (2.12 - 2004) and Adrian Wilson (3.2 - 2001), that can hit like a LB, cover like a CB and have the range and aerial skills of an elite safety are becoming increasingly in vogue. Good looking Detroit rookie FS Louis Delmas (2.1 - 2009) is reminiscent of Sanders in terms of his physical stature, athleticism and game, and Lions fans will be ecstatic if he eventually has a comparable impact. Respected independent scout Frank Coyle used Wilson as a comp player to describe Atlanta SS William Moore's (2.23 - 2009) formidable constellation of traits and attributes.• PEDIGREE - This could be meant in several senses, in terms of bloodlines and "NFL genes", and draft pedigree. Highly regarded rookie safety LaRon Landry of the Redskins would be an example illustrating both meanings. His older brother Dawan of the Ravens had an outstanding rookie season in '06 (and LaRon came into the league far more heralded). The younger Landry was the consensus top safety, DB and arguably overall defensive player in the nation in his class (as the sixth overall selection, narrowly missing being the top overall defensive pick in the '07 draft - highly touted Bucs DE Gaines Adams received that distinction by being taken off the board fourth overall), and one of the highest drafted safeties in the past several decades. KC SLB Derrick Johnson (1.15 - 2005) also has good bloodlines (his brother Dwight played for the Giants and cousin Bert Emanuel was a former Falcons first round QB/WR conversion who starred in ATLs potent "Red Gun" passing attack), and carried an elite, blue chip grade in his draft. Rams second year DE Chris Long (second overall pick in the 2008 draft) also obviously belongs in this category.• RESUME - How did the prospect fare in college, and looking back even further, what were their prep accomplishments. Every player has a kind of trajectory to their career. Tracing it can help you see the outline of its arc in advance. DEN MLB D.J. Williams (1.17 - 2004) and DET WLB Ernie Sims (1.9 - 2006) have almost identical resumes in that they were star two way RB/LBs and among the highest recruited preps in the nation for their respective classes.• PRODUCTIVITY - IND SS Bob Sanders (5'8" 205) doesn't fit the mold with prototypical size, and he definitely comes with injury concern baggage, but at Iowa and with the Colts, he has always been productive when on the field. While he may not look the part of an intimidating secondary presence, or how you would draw one up from scratch via a bioengineering lab blueprint, when he is on the field the dude just gets it done. While short he isn't small, and actually has an imposing physical stature, and his 4.3 40 and 40"+ vertical jump are athletic equalizers and key compensating factors that more than make up for his lack of classic size for the position. He is also proof that it is hard to measure a man's heart, determination and intensity by any means that would be recognizable to quants.• DURABILITY AND MEDICAL HISTORY - Is there a pattern of missed games, dating back to college and even prep career? TB RB Cadillac Williams (1.5 - 2005) had tantalizing potential given the record breaking first three games to start his NFL career, but the wheels have come off on his career (literally and figuratively) after a troubling litany of serious injuries. In retrospect, perhaps his relatively unproven body of work as a feature RB, splitting carries with Ronnie Brown (1.2 - 2005) while at Auburn should have been a greater concern to scouts. Former Panthers MLB Dan Morgan has come out of retirement (now with the Saints), but his checkered medical file once made Evil Knievel look like a piker. He is liable to get a concussion tripping over the sideline during training camp, could be a poster boy for this category, and should definitely be considered guilty until proven innocent in the durability department. The Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart (1.13 - 2008) looks the part of an elite, blue chip RB prospect (similar to Michael "The Burner" Turner at 5'10", 235 lbs., with sprinter speed), but durability questions that extended back to his days at Oregon resurfaced with a pre-Combine broken foot, as well as nagging injuries throughout last season.• LEVEL OF COMPETITION - Div I or small school? Using level of competition as a "filter" or screening device is more important to invoke early on in the scouting process. Once small school players become established, we cease to care as much if CHI CB Charles Tillman (2.3 - 2003) went to Louisiana-Lafayette or new MIN DE Jared Allen (4.30 - 2004) went to Idaho State. Pro Bowl caliber CB Rashean Mathis (2.7 - 2003) of JAX came from the modest starting point of tiny Bethune-Cookman. WAS MLB London Fletcher-Baker (UFA) came from football powerhouse and NFL pipeline John Carroll University. Giants DE Osi Umenyiora (2.24 - 2003) and Cowboys OLB DeMarcus Ware (1.11 - 2005) are among the preeminent players in the league at their respective positions, yet share in common the humble and modest LOC origins of Troy. Of course, the converse is true, and players that come from big time programs aren't immune from bust-dom. Look no further than how former USC/Pac-10 great, ex-Lion WR Mike Williams' (1.10 - 2005) non-career unfolded to illustrate this point.• INSTINCTS AND FOOTBALL SMARTS - See SEA MLB Lofa Tatupu (2.13 - 2005). Even if he may not test off the charts in terms of his measurables, he is such a great student of the game, adept at recognizing tendencies and able to process information and react quickly to it (with the former informing the latter), that he often is the first defender to the ball, with an almost unerring, Singletary-like first step. Rams MLB James Laurinaitis (2.3 - 2009) also has a strong work ethic, cerebral approach to opposition tendency film prep, and game, helping him to become one of the most decorated athletes in Ohio State and LBs in NCAA history (in rare company as a three-time All American). Former Colts/Rams RB and future HoFer Marshall Faulk was legendary for being like a coach on the field and making it part of his job description to know the assignments of everybody on the field (on both sides of the ball) at all times.• CONSISTENCY AND MOTOR - Does a prospect play hard all the time, or just when he feels like it and it suits him. Do they consistently rack up productive numbers, or do they disappear for long stretches? Do they play like they are just going through the motions or like their hair is on fire? Do they fatigue and tire easily, or do they have the stamina, endurance and physical conditioning to be counted on the whole game and especially during crunch time. Browns DT Shaun Rogers had a troubling history in Detroit of playing hard sporadically and in intermittent bursts, surrounded by stretches of taking downs off and coasting, but vindicated himself to an extent with less uneven intensity and more consistent effort in Cleveland. There isn't much debate among scouts that Bengals DE/OLB Michael Johnson (3.6 - 2009) is among the most physically gifted and naturally talented prospects in his class at any position (6'7" 260 lbs - 4.6 40), as he entered the 2008 collegiate season as BLESTO's #1 ranked senior prospect. Despite his prodigious athleticism, a rep of not always giving his best effort may have contributed to slipping to the third round. On the opposite end of the spectrum, even a cursory glance at the body of work and game film of Chargers OLB DE Larry English (1.16 - 2009) reveals a tremendous motor, showing why he surged up team's boards in April as one of the higher rising prospects leading up to the draft.• INTANGIBLES - Are they tough, hard workers, team players, leaders, passionate about the game, have a burning desire to be great and perform well in pressure situations? Based on the importance of these traits and attributes as precursors to NFL success, prized second year QB and third overall pick in the 2008 draft Matt Ryan of the Falcons was highlighted in this article last year as a potential future star and outstanding exemplar of this category, due his off-the-charts intangibles index. The Lions are due for a break, and some scouts think QB Matthew Stafford (2009 #1 overall pick) has a kindred makeup, and could enjoy a similar arc and trajectory to his career. • CHARACTER - Will they be banned from the league for multiple drug program violations (Odell Thurman), or end up in jail (Chris Henry)?• AGE - BAL MLB Ray Lewis (1.26 - 1996) and STL WR Torry Holt (1.6 - 1999) are rapidly approaching their mid-30s. They are elite athletes for their respective positions and take great care of their bodies, but how much longer can they realistically be expected to compete at a high level? Just as there is a body of knowledge about physical trait norms for different positions, there is similar information to draw on based on typical lifecycles and age spans of different positions (30 is usually old for a RB, middle aged for a WR and could be young for a QB). It could be instructive to look for parallels on defense for IDP purposes.• COMP PLAYERS - How is a prospect's constellation of traits similar to (and different from) NFL players that have come before them and who have succeeded (or failed). Look for patterns of success and failure in relative and respective skill sets. As you feed your internal network of prospect associations and connections through studying scouting profiles (and film breakdown), it becomes easier to trap new associations and connections within its expanding web, constantly morphing into one with greater discernment and more encompassing scope. Sometimes there can be diminishing returns with some fields of knowledge, but in the domain of expanding and enhancing your internal network of comp player representations and associations, the more knowledgeable you get, the easier it becomes to get even more knowledgeable.• COLLATING MULTIPLE SCOUTING PROFILES AND RESOURCES - Try and cultivate good sources. Some of my favorites are the great work done by the FBG staff (shameless plug), Frank Coyle, Mike Mayock, Sporting News, Pro Football Weekly, USA Today, NFL.com, Scott Wright's Draft Countdown, etc. Lining up several profiles will give you a better sense of a player than just one, and can help correct cases of excess optimism or pessimism from individual scouts. It can also help in the process of discovering which scouts you come to find most accurate and which resources are most reliable and therefore worthy of being weighted more heavily in your overall evaluation. This process could have some kind of underlying structural parallel with the fact that you need at a minimum three monitoring stations to locate the epicenter and obtain precise magnitude information about an earthquake. The act of binocular vision itself is benefited by additional depth perception information accrued from having two eyes instead of one.•FILM/VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS - When dealing with young and unproven players not yet established, this can be one of the absolute best tools for making sense of the bewildering array of scouting profiles (see above) on prospects, helping to place them in context, judge their closeness or distance from the mark and determine their relevance and relative usefulness. If a picture is worth a thousand words, video highlights have an immense, nearly incalculable power to augment and transcend words. Spending just a few minutes looking at the highlights of MIN RB Adrian Peterson (1.7 - 2007) and DET WR Calvin Johnson (1.2 - 2007) would have shown why scouts had been drooling over their NFL prospects for several years. There is literally no substitute for WITNESSING WITH YOUR OWN EYES a players explosiveness, separation, leaping ability, hands, open field moves, contact balance, tackle breaking power, etc. (or on defense, instincts, ability to get off blocks, range, tackling prowess, etc.). The NFL channel's resident in-house scout, former NFL player and career coach/scout's son Mayock does yeoman's work in breaking down film of incoming classes by position. Rams second year WR Keenan Burton (4.29 - 2008) has some unanswered questions about his durability, but he flashed outstanding athleticism, explosive playmaking ability and a well rounded skill set in his collegiate highlights. Falcons second year MLB Curtis Lofton's (2.6 - 2008) first step, instincts and open field tackling ability roar off the screen on film.• SCHEME-DRIVEN CONTEXT - Why is a DE usually more productive than a DT, a MLB or WLB more than a SLB and SS more than FS (see FBG John Norton's seminal work on IDP positions)? Sometimes a stud SLB such as Seahawks rookie SLB and fourth overall pick of the 2009 draft, Aaron Curry, can perform better than less talented options at sexier, more high profile positions. Different schemes can make certain positions ultra-productive or render them unstartable or even unrosterable. Attending closely to the reasons WHY can be the difference between chronically stumbling through drafts and leagues and dominating them. On a historically man-to-man coverage base defense like in OAK, talented young Colts CB tandem Marlin Jackson (1.29 - 2005) and Kelvin Hayden (2.28 - 2005) could have average value, but in the IND Cover Two, they both have upside in IDP leagues. Talent evaluation needs the context of scheme knowledge as much as scheme knowledge requires the background of talent. Scheme knowledge is fantastically important, but is wielded most powerfully when counterchecked by a rigorous, thorough, systematic examination on a case-by-case basis for occasional exceptions to the rule and OUTLIERS.• TEAM FIT - How does a prospect's skill set mesh with his destination, and how does he fit into the team's future plans. The Saints CB Malcolm Jenkins (1.14 - 2009) and Cardinals RB Chris "Beanie" Wells (1.31 - 2009) were among the best intersections of BPA (best player available) with team need in the entire 2009 draft, going to teams that were starved for blue chip CB and RB talent, respectively. Few teams needed a CB more than the Cards in 2008, and coveted rookie Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (DRC) was able to harness his elite athleticism and was quickly coached up to the point he was able to start by his rookie season. Several rookie WRs, including the 49ers Michael Crabtree (1.14), Giants Hakeem Nicks (1.29) and Browns Brian Robiskie (2.4), are not only among the most talented and pro-ready at their position in the draft, but landed in favorable situations which could see them thrust into prominence fairly early in their pro careers. The Rams have been known to want to shift ex-MLB Will Witherspoon to his more natural WLB position since last year, filling a gaping, massive MLB hole with the selection of Laurinaitis near the top of the second round in the 2009 draft. St. Louis gave up an appalling, franchise-worst 2,475 rushing yards in 2008. His opportune landing spot make him one of the early favorites for Defensive Rookie of the Year, and could help him overtake the more highly graded, fellow highly anticipated NFC West LB Aaron Curry. Rookie safeties Delmas and Moore had similarly fortuitous destinations (perhaps even more so than the Patriots Patrick Chung, who has comparable talent and pedigree, at 2.2 - 2009, but will be forced to carve out a niche and emerge from a more crowded and less talent-depleted secondary than his counterparts), and could be difference makers right away.• STARTING STATUS (DUH! 
) - CAR CBs Chris Gamble (1.28 - 2004), Ken Lucas (2.9 - 2001) and Richard Marshall (2.26 - 2006) were all quality players, but only two could start. With the release of ex/current-Seahawk Lucas, this will be the year numerous Marshall owners (who had been biding their time based on periodic flashes and glimpses of brilliance) hope to reap the dividends of their patience, as they finally get to see what he can do with his long awaited turn at the starting gig.• IN-SEASON STAT SPLITS - Breaking down the numbers in a more fine-grained manner can be one of the greatest tools for dissecting the potential of breakout prospects. Make it a habit and be comfortable moving in and out of larger and smaller time frames and data samples. As in the film technique of rapid freeze frames onto progressively smaller areas of the original field of vision or image, changing your vantage point and perspective can enable you to spot patterns that went unnoticed after the first pass, or over larger time frames. The Colts and Titans young, up 'n coming safeties Antoine Bethea (6.38 - 2006) and Michael Griffin (1.19 - 2007) had nice second half splits in 2007, which foreshadowed/augured bigger things to come last season.• CONTRACTS - Another layer and level of information unto itself which, if you have the eyes to see (and this is an acquired skill you can get better at), will help to decode and interpret which players are in a team's future plans and which aren't, and act as a skeleton key to unlock many positional battles which cut across the entire league. Depending on the long term status of WR Braylon Edwards (1.3 - 2005), if he is nearing an end to his time in Cleveland, Robiskie could be nicely situated to make an even bigger impact, ultimately.
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Brock Middlebrook
Footballguy
Ridiculously good posts Bob!!!!
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
If only I had your astonishing gifts of brevity and incisiveness.
I am going to simplify things here.....and I hope my writing style doesn't go over all of your heads here as some of the previous posts seem to have gone over mine. Ok, here goes.......Miles Austin is good. You should feel really good if he is on your fantasy team. That's all I got to say about that. (with a Forrest Gump voice)
THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA
Footballguy
Im holding in the 2 dynasty teams i got him on. Mainly cause im playing for NOW and one might not give what i thnk i would possibly miss out on if i deal him now.But i do want to buy on him.....i have NO IDEA what he is worth now....
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Breakouts are like a box of chocolates.
NatronIsMean
Footballguy
As always, if the price is right you should ALWAYS be selling. That said, I'm not looking to sell since I know my league well enough to know that no one will give me what I think he's worth. If that makes sense. That, and he solves my biggest problem potentially...
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
I got him after the KC game (unprompted), with a 1st initially being asked for. We countered with a 2nd & 3rd plus Connor Barwin. We are middle of the pack in a 16 team IDP dynasty league. I was trying to think of what he would have been worth to me. I thought something like a 1.6 seemed high since he was a wee bit more sketchy as recently as even last week. Something like a 1.10 seemed about right (sometimes you get Roddy White or the WR from MIN who's name is escaping me... not Berrian or Harvin... sometimes you get Duane Jarrett or Devin Thomas). I thought a 2.5 (say, in a 12 team legue) would be a no brainer. After his second start, there is no way I would part with him for the lower end of that range. At this point, I would probably rather have him than a 1.6. I don't think he would fetch a top three RB where you could snare a potential top RB prospect. If you use another pick/prospect as a sort of comparable value translation, I saw Hakeem Nicks go anywhere from about 1.6-1.8 in some leagues. It would be tough to say who I like more. Nicks has superior pedigree. I see them as having similar upside. If you scratched me deep, I maybe like Nicks just a bit more from how much I coveted him based on draft research (taking him over McCoy in one case, though I may regret that)... but it is close in my mind. In a rebuilding stage of the life-cycle, I might opt for Nicks youth. If I was in win now mode, Austin looks to be carving out an important niche and role within the Cowboys passing game and overall offense. My opinion of Austin, probably like lots of others, has been in flux even within the past two weeks.In the aforementioned dynasty league in which we got him between his first two starts... if I didn't have him already, I'd probably now trade LT without much hesitation for Austin (unless I thought I could get somebody better, and in this league, I don't think I would be able to). But take that for what its worth (no less than what you paid for it
), as that reflects my being down on LT. I'm dense & it took a while.
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NatronIsMean
Footballguy
I grabbed him on waivers in both of my two leagues (12 teamer and 10 team $10k league). I was surprised to get him in both since my waiver order was in the 6-9 range. This just goes to show:
1. Fortune always favors the bold.
2. If 250 and 2 TDs wasn't enough to take a shot, there are 6-9 people in both leagues that have to be kicking themselves.
And while it is true that Austin could turn into teh suck now, starting him at the flex this week in both leagues that rewards for #1 overall points at year end, he's already paid me back...
And for the record, I'm pretty sure he doesn't suck. In the 10 team league, I feel like I might have "cousins" at WR1 and WR2 with VJax and Austin. And Jennings and Steve Smith can just take their damn seats on the damn bench...
1. Fortune always favors the bold.
2. If 250 and 2 TDs wasn't enough to take a shot, there are 6-9 people in both leagues that have to be kicking themselves.
And while it is true that Austin could turn into teh suck now, starting him at the flex this week in both leagues that rewards for #1 overall points at year end, he's already paid me back...
And for the record, I'm pretty sure he doesn't suck. In the 10 team league, I feel like I might have "cousins" at WR1 and WR2 with VJax and Austin. And Jennings and Steve Smith can just take their damn seats on the damn bench...
A
awesomeness
Guest
oof.Nice to see you back though.GordonGekko said:
MCguidance
Footballguy
Whoa, a lot of useful information Bob. Thanks for all this, going to have to read at work rather than on the commode.
TommyGilmore
Footballguy
Neither Anderson nor Ochocinco did it in their first 2 starts.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
It is, and also the best start ever (first two starts). As Hankey noted above, Chad (2006?) has the best two game stretch at around 250. They flashed a graphic during the game against the Falcons... Austin was 4th at 421... #2 & #3 were 49ers John Taylor (I think maybe one of these was a monster game against the Rams - '89?) and Rice ('95 or '96?). But all the other WRs were much more establised, so impressive, needless to stay, for his first two starts.Interestingly (to me at least), there was also another positive historical note about Romo during the game. My generally upbeat take on Romo is a big reason I am so high on Austin. He entered the Falcons game with a 30-14 record in his first 44 starts (now 31-14 out of 45). That was 4th best QB win % (with 44+ starts) since before the merger... it was phrased as... since the Super Bowl era. I forget one of the QBs (maybe Montana?), but Brady and Rothliesberger were on the list. Aikman brought it up in the context that Romo's persona is unfortunatly associated in part with his post-season struggles... but he has actually done a very good job by some measures.thatguy said:
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TommyGilmore
Footballguy
Otto Graham - 39-5Kurt Warner - 35-9Dan Marino - 34-10Roger Staubaugh - 33-11Tom Brady - 32-12Ben Roethlisberger - 32-12Norm Van Brocklin - 31-11-2John Elway - 31-13Romo - 30-14Bob Magaw said:
certificate
Footballguy
Still not a large enough body of work to convince any sensible person that he's an elite receiver, but certainly a hell of a start.
Miles is the #1 receiver in my cbs fantasy football league so far this year. He is 2 points ahead of Andre and 6 points ahead of Reggie Wayne.
NatronIsMean
Footballguy
I think most of us are just trying to determine if he's for real as a WR2 (fantasy startable). To be "elite" should require more than one season of work, so agreed. Glad to have him on 2 of 2 teams... Can't believe I got him with my waiver order, but WR is my biggest problem so I'm definitely happy.
Well all of my leagues start at least 3 WRs and a couple also have a Flex so if your in a league like that it seems like a no brainer to me. Of course I would feel foolish benching him in a 2 WR league unless I had 2 top 10 WRs in front of him. Should you trade compensation for him as if he is a top 10 WR? Probably not. He has had health concerns in the past and I would want to see him healthy for a while.Would I trade him for less than top 10 WR compensation? No. Not unless I had a glaring need in another area and was already strong at WR. The guy looks too good and despite the negative hype Romo is an excellent QB in need of a #1 WR. Even if Roy Williams starts stepping up, he plays a different style than Austin and they will only compliment each other.Kudos to those of us that recognized the opportunity and reacted in time.
TommyGilmore
Footballguy
After Week 1, the #2 scorer in my league was Crayton. After Week 2, the #1 WR was Manningham. After Week 3, it was DeSean Jackson. After Week 4, it was Steve Smith (NYG). Only Smith is still in the top-12 overall, and he's fading fast.Not that I'm complaining. It's just been a wild year for WRs and I don't expect Miles to stay in the top-12 all season.
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
He is only under contract for this season. They need to do something about that.
duaneok66
Footballguy
no way do you trade him now . . .
Think it's coincidence that Ware got his deal done this week? Dallas will wrap him up long term since Jerry always takes care of his players but they now have some options if Austin's agent proves difficult. They can always franchise him if they need more time and if a collective bargaining agreement isn't reached Austin won't be a UFA until his 6th year.
gonzobill5
Footballguy
This coming from the guy who talked up Crayton as the Cowboys WR to own. That might just be the straw that broke the camels back with my allegiance to FBGs.
MCguidance
Footballguy
If you subscribed for perfection, you were bound to be disappointed.This coming from the guy who talked up Crayton as the Cowboys WR to own. That might just be the straw that broke the camels back with my allegiance to FBGs.
gonzobill5
Footballguy
Disappointed about a staff member that can't follow the basic rules of this message board? You bet I am. This isn't the first time I've felt this way, and Andy is a repeat offender.If you subscribed for perfection, you were bound to be disappointed.
NatronIsMean
Footballguy
Agreed. These guys are the best. Compare the advice here to anywhere else and it stands the test. And I'm just a poster and avid podcast listener.If you subscribed for perfection, you were bound to be disappointed.
