Moss & Welker expect big things in '09 (1 Viewer)

[sib]

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/afceast/0-8-94/...r-than--07.html

 

[AnonymousBob]

Well...what are they supposed to say?

 

[The Jerk]

I would be very surprised if the Patriots got any higher than 85% of their production from 2007, at least in terms of points and TDs. I would expect the 2009 yardage totals to end up being the most similar to 2007. Defenses were adjusting to some extent during the latter part of the 2007 season (as happens to any dominant offense or defense in the NFL), the rest of the AFC East is significantly stronger than in 2007, and while Belichick remains hard to predict, I expect that unlike 2007, he will not leave Brady in the game to pile up statistics after the outcome has been decided.

That all said, 85% of their 2007 production would still be a highly formidable offense and would place them at or near the top in many offensive categories.

 

[David Yudkin]

That all said, 85% of their 2007 production would still be a highly formidable offense and would place them at or near the top in many offensive categories.

That still would get them to over 500 points scored, and you can count the number of teams that have done that on your fingers with no need for toes. IIRC . . .NE 07 589MIN 00 556WAS 83 541STL 02 540STL 01 526IND 04 522MIA 513SF 94 505STL 03 503DEN 00 501

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Like Kevin Garnett....anything is possibllllllllle..........!!!!!

 

[The Jerk]

That all said, 85% of their 2007 production would still be a highly formidable offense and would place them at or near the top in many offensive categories.

That still would get them to over 500 points scored, and you can count the number of teams that have done that on your fingers with no need for toes. IIRC . . .NE 07 589MIN 00 556WAS 83 541STL 02 540STL 01 526IND 04 522MIA 513SF 94 505STL 03 503DEN 00 501

Right. Which is why it's ridiculous to expect anything approaching 2007 numbers this season, and this is relevant for fantasy purposes. It's not an impossibility, but if you draft the Patriots expecting them to score nearly 600 points and 75 TDs, you will almost certainly be drafting most of their players too early.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

That all said, 85% of their 2007 production would still be a highly formidable offense and would place them at or near the top in many offensive categories.

That still would get them to over 500 points scored, and you can count the number of teams that have done that on your fingers with no need for toes. IIRC . . .NE 07 589MIN 00 556WAS 83 541STL 02 540STL 01 526IND 04 522MIA 513SF 94 505STL 03 503DEN 00 501

Right. Which is why it's ridiculous to expect anything approaching 2007 numbers this season, and this is relevant for fantasy purposes. It's not an impossibility, but if you draft the Patriots expecting them to score nearly 600 points and 75 TDs, you will almost certainly be drafting most of their players too early.

On the other hand, you were probably saying the same thing in '02 about St Louis.One of the reasons you don't see players or teams string together long runs of peak performance is injury, and that's exactly why you didn't see it last year.Of course, I have no idea how to predict injury.

 

[ratbast]

It was a record breaking season. If you ask.. can they put up 500 points? That I can understand, but better than 589? Craziness.

If they don't fix the LBs and DBs there's a chance they have to put up 500 points.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

It was a record breaking season. If you ask.. can they put up 500 points? That I can understand, but better than 589? Craziness.

What if I had asked in August of '07?

 

[Sweet Love]

That all said, 85% of their 2007 production would still be a highly formidable offense and would place them at or near the top in many offensive categories.

That still would get them to over 500 points scored, and you can count the number of teams that have done that on your fingers with no need for toes. IIRC . . .NE 07 589MIN 00 556WAS 83 541STL 02 540STL 01 526IND 04 522MIA 513SF 94 505STL 03 503DEN 00 501

Right. Which is why it's ridiculous to expect anything approaching 2007 numbers this season, and this is relevant for fantasy purposes. It's not an impossibility, but if you draft the Patriots expecting them to score nearly 600 points and 75 TDs, you will almost certainly be drafting most of their players too early.

But how could you draft them too early unless other teams approach 500 points this year? My guess is if you took the top 3 players on any offense that scores 500 points in consecutive rounds, none would be a bust, correct?

 

[Biabreakable]

This got me excited but not quite as excited as this guy (from the link).

dmcpatsfan (5/27/2009 at 5:24 PM) Report Violation Moss:20 TD'sGalloway:12 TD'sWelker:9 TD'sLewis:5 TD'sFaulk4 TD's(recieving)Watson/Smith/Thoma s/Baker:8 TD's (combined)Brady shatters his own TD record with 58.....not counting possible additions by Maroney & Taylor out of the backfield catching some for TD's.......60 anyone??!! VERY POSSIBLE

Galloway 12 TD? wowWelker defies the laws of probability. He had 2 nearly identical seasons back to back with 2 different QB. That is not a system thats a machine. Main difference was the TDs. Brady is back...I cannot get the Galloway prediction. He wasn't with the Pats last 2 years and is a bit old and fallen off. The TE TD may be a bit too high but the other stuff seems possible.

 

[The Jerk]

On the other hand, you were probably saying the same thing in '02 about St Louis.One of the reasons you don't see players or teams string together long runs of peak performance is injury, and that's exactly why you didn't see it last year.Of course, I have no idea how to predict injury.

Larry, welcome to FBG -- assuming you're a new poster, not just another alias.From the two threads we have both posted in, I am led to believe you are an avid Patriot fan. Good for you. I get that you are (or appear to be) a New England sports fan. Please understand that I am not insulting the Patriots by suggesting the odds are against them scoring 589 points again this season, or that even 500 points will be difficult.While discussion of teams and franchises and favorite players are all perfectly fine in the Shark Pool, certain threads are more about fantasy football relevance than others. To me, this is one of those threads. To your credit, you did share one insight concerning injuries, but that's somewhat irrelevant in that the comparison is between the 2007 Patriots and the projected 2009 Patriots. From my perspective, it's far more relevant to look at the three factors I mentioned earlier:1. The Patriots slowed down considerably in the second half of 2007.2. The AFC East is much stronger now than in 2007.3. Tom Brady is (possibly) less likely to play late in games that have already been clearly decided.Point 3 is unknowable and Belichick is a wild card, but a QB coming off injury would likely be protected more than one not coming off of injury, and that mindset may filter down to other key offensive cogs.Point 2 has more factual basis. The Dolphins/Jets/Bills went 25-17 vs. teams other than NE in 2008, whereas these same teams were 12-30 in 2007. That's a huge improvement and partly skewed due to an easier schedule in 2008. Point 1 is the most significant. Consider this:

2007 Patriots   avg.PF   avg.PA   avg.marginfirst 10 games	41.1	 15.7		25.4final 9 games	 27.1	 18.4		 8.7playoffs		  22.0	 16.3		 5.7

Perhaps part of this trend can be explained by the schedule becoming increasingly difficult, the colder weather slowing down offenses, and of course the pressure of remaining undefeated.So there's nothing wrong with being a fan and/or playing devil's advocate, but it's also nice to explore the numbers a little bit, too. FF is much more than just numbers, but FF success is nearly impossible without some foundation in statistics.

 

[The Jerk]

That all said, 85% of their 2007 production would still be a highly formidable offense and would place them at or near the top in many offensive categories.

That still would get them to over 500 points scored, and you can count the number of teams that have done that on your fingers with no need for toes. IIRC . . .NE 07 589MIN 00 556WAS 83 541STL 02 540STL 01 526IND 04 522MIA 513SF 94 505STL 03 503DEN 00 501

Right. Which is why it's ridiculous to expect anything approaching 2007 numbers this season, and this is relevant for fantasy purposes. It's not an impossibility, but if you draft the Patriots expecting them to score nearly 600 points and 75 TDs, you will almost certainly be drafting most of their players too early.

But how could you draft them too early unless other teams approach 500 points this year? My guess is if you took the top 3 players on any offense that scores 500 points in consecutive rounds, none would be a bust, correct?

First, let me point out that my post suggested it would be drafting too early if you expect NE to score 600 points. Your post seems to suggest the number was 500.Second, you cannot just draft NE player 1, 2 and 3 and be sure to end up with them. Instead, you must draft individuals you expect to be the top producers. Brady and Moss figure to be 1 and 2 or at worst 1 and 3, but who might the third be? Welker? Maroney? Galloway? Taylor? Watson? Lewis? Or will a Sammy Morris type surface and score far more than expected?I'm not saying it's a ridiculous strategy, but it's far from foolproof. For me, I won't be running away from Patriots, but I won't make this my go-to strategy either. For me, there's too much putting eggs in an unpredictable basket, and I don't feel I need to be risky when I'm consistently contending for championships without needing to employ an extreme (to me) strategy. Sorry if I'm tooting my own horn, but many people in these forums are in the same situation where they are consistently among the top teams in their leagues. My advice to them would be not to simply forget everything else about FF and try to get as many Patriots as they can on their team.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Haha....yeah, I like numbers, too, which is why I feel compelled in these kind of threads when I find people either abusing them, or just confused by them.1 is just incorrect2 is only partly correct, and mostly misleading3 we will agree upon that it's unknownSo, I think that your post was maybe a little longer than it could've been.No offense.As you mentioned, correctly predicting Patriot performance could be have huge fantasy implications, just like it did in '07, and I'm not sure if simple disbelief does this kind of thing any justice.Just think about how many posts are spent in here going back and forth quibbling on projections between a couple touchdowns and whether a guy will be ranked 4th or 5th, and compare that to the differential between '07 Brady and his competition, or '07 Moss and his competition.

While discussion of teams and franchises and favorite players are all perfectly fine in the Shark Pool, certain threads are more about fantasy football relevance than others. To me, this is one of those threads. To your credit, you did share one insight concerning injuries, but that's somewhat irrelevant in that the comparison is between the 2007 Patriots and the projected 2009 Patriots. From my perspective, it's far more relevant to look at the three factors I mentioned earlier:1. The Patriots slowed down considerably in the second half of 2007.2. The AFC East is much stronger now than in 2007.3. Tom Brady is (possibly) less likely to play late in games that have already been clearly decided.So there's nothing wrong with being a fan and/or playing devil's advocate, but it's also nice to explore the numbers a little bit, too. FF is much more than just numbers, but FF success is nearly impossible without some foundation in statistics.

 

[The Jerk]

Haha....yeah, I like numbers, too, which is why I feel compelled in these kind of threads when I find people either abusing them, or just confused by them.1 is just incorrect

How?You apparently ignored my statistic comparing the first 10 games of 2007 for NE vs. the last 9 games.Keeping it in the regular season, all numbers are points scored by NE:First four games: 38, 38, 38, 34, total 148, average 37Second four games: 34, 48, 49, 52, total 183, average 45.75Third four games: 24, 56, 31, 27, total 138, average 34.5Final four games: 34, 20, 28, 38, total 120, average 30I believe that a trend of 37, 45.75, 34.5, 30 strongly suggests slowing down as the season progressed.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Of course I ignored it, and I'm pretty sure you know why I ignored it.

Look, I'm really not all that into winning internet debates, but you're throwing out a lot of incorrect and misleading numbers for people to look at who might not follow the Pats and just take them at face value.

'07 was 2 years ago, and I've been all through this kind of discussion way more than it ever warranted.

I think I've been through this more times than Favre has retired.

If you're really interested in the Pats, I'm not against posting a very quick summary, but if you've already got it figured out and want to win a debate, I'll happily give you the win.

 

[The Jerk]

Of course I ignored it, and I'm pretty sure you know why I ignored it.Look, I'm really not all that into winning internet debates, but you're throwing out a lot of incorrect and misleading numbers for people to look at who might not follow the Pats and just take them at face value.'07 was 2 years ago, and I've been all through this kind of discussion way more than it ever warranted.I think I've been through this more times than Favre has retired.If you're really interested in the Pats, I'm not against posting a very quick summary, but if you've already got it figured out and want to win a debate, I'll happily give you the win.

I'm not trying to win a debate.What number have I listed that is wrong?If I am miscalculating or deliberately doctoring numbers, than why don't you provide the correct ones.The Patriots points scored in each game and the records of the other AFC East teams that I have referenced are all easily verifiable.You and I and other posters may very will differ on what the numbers mean for 2009, and that's what makes FF fun. If we all thought alike, it would be eminently boring and predictable. If you want to disagree with how I apply the numbers, please do so, but you have just said I am providing incorrect and misleading numbers when all I've done is very simple, easily verifiable calculations.Why don't you tell me how they are incorrect and/or misleading?

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Alright, if you're really serious........

First of all, this discussion is not about where the Pats finish in their division, it's simply about the offensive numbers they put up for fantasy purposes --- that's pretty straightforward.

Yet, one of your points was that the AFC East was much stronger.

While it's certainly true that the AFC East produced some better records while the Pats had an injury riddled down year, I don't see compelling evidence to make me think '09 AFC East defenses are tremendously better than '07 AFC defenses, and that's the only thing we're talking about.

What'd Miami improve --- 10 wins?

How would you rate their passing defense last year?

I'd say the B team put up some pretty fair points on the Jets in OT last year, and this year they've got a rookie QB.

etc

So, what I'd say is that you produced 3 points as your 'foundation in statistics', the third of which you cite as unknowable, and the second completely irrelevant.

The first, and only remaining, is the one you seem most invested in, but before I post any comment on that one, I'd like to know how you happened to pick 10 games and 9 games as your 2 comparison groups, and why you included defensive points scored in your listings.

I would think you'd list only offensive points scored, if you were interested in accuracy.

 

[Biabreakable]

Maybe this is just trivia:

Wes Welker

2008 New England Patriots 16 14GS 111rec 1,165yd 10.5ypc 64 3TD 3ra 26yd 8.7ypc 1 fumble

2007 New England Patriots 16 13GS 112rec 1,175yd 10.5ypc 42 8TD 4ra 34yd 8.5ypc 3 fumble

I just can't recall ever seeing any player produce this consistently. Assuming Brady is healty I wonder how close he will be to these numbers in 2009. Probobly really close but higher TD with Brady. If he starts all 16 games there may be some upside.

Randy Moss

2008 New England Patriots 16 16 69rec 1,008yd 14.6ypc 11TD 2 fumbles

2007 New England Patriots 16 16 98rec 1,493yd 15.2ypc 23TD

This is clearly the wildcard here. 29 receptions is a huge difference, about 30% decrease but not as much as the TDs which went down 53%.

If we just average the 2 seasons even though Brady is back now that would be 83.5rec 14.9ypc 1244yd 17TD.

I am still trying to figure this situation out and I haven't made any strong conclushions yet but I am already seeing Moss as having a huge variance in projections.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

If we just average the 2 seasons even though Brady is back now that would be 83.5rec 14.9ypc 1244yd 17TD.I am still trying to figure this situation out and I haven't made any strong conclushions yet but I am already seeing Moss as having a huge variance in projections.

You could do that, but let me ask you why you do that?The problems with statistical analysis of football is that the sample sizes are so small, and they comprise too many variables, so it's tempting to just lump all the data together rather than try to project off a handful of data points.But why would you try to project Brady off Cassel and exclude Randy's years in Oakland, for example --- or why not lump his Minny years into your average?If you're projecting Brady to Moss, I'd suggest you start by looking at Brady to Moss.

 

[The Jerk]

So, what I'd say is that you produced 3 points as your 'foundation in statistics', the third of which you cite as unknowable, and the second completely irrelevant.The first, and only remaining, is the one you seem most invested in, but before I post any comment on that one, I'd like to know how you happened to pick 10 games and 9 games as your 2 comparison groups, and why you included defensive points scored in your listings.I would think you'd list only offensive points scored, if you were interested in accuracy.

The 10 vs. 9 breakdown was in post 12. Feel free to ignore it if you want to just look at each quarter of the regular season, which is what I placed in post 15. If you don't want to do that, then here is the entire season:38 38 38 34 34 48 49 52 24 56 31 27 34 20 28 38Playoffs 31 21 14By the way, while I acknowledge the defense is more relevant than margin of victory as far as fantasy expectations go, the reason defensive numbers and margin of victory COULD matter is that a team plays differently when it's in a one-score game or two-score game vs. a blowout. So I still suggest that playing in a more competitive division and an overall more difficult schedule is a consideration.

 

[Biabreakable]

If we just average the 2 seasons even though Brady is back now that would be 83.5rec 14.9ypc 1244yd 17TD.I am still trying to figure this situation out and I haven't made any strong conclushions yet but I am already seeing Moss as having a huge variance in projections.

You could do that, but let me ask you why you do that?The problems with statistical analysis of football is that the sample sizes are so small, and they comprise too many variables, so it's tempting to just lump all the data together rather than try to project off a handful of data points.But why would you try to project Brady off Cassel and exclude Randy's years in Oakland, for example --- or why not lump his Minny years into your average?If you're projecting Brady to Moss, I'd suggest you start by looking at Brady to Moss.

Oh I agree.And that isn't the way I project players. Just putting some simple numbers out there so that people can have facts about what Moss has done over the past 2 seasons. And contrasting it with what Welker has done. Which historicly speaking to me is kind of amazing and I don't expect Welkers numbers to be as close to what they were over the past 2 seasons. But that pattern is very tight and strong. There should not be as huge a variance in expectations for a floor and ceiling on Welker as there will be with Moss.Brady is a marked improvement and much more relevant to what Moss is capable of in 2009 than what he did last year with Cassel. But even so where do set your baseline? And what information is useful and what isn't?Normaly in stable situations what occured last season would be a more relevant to expectations for the coming season. If we consider 2007 more relevant then it should have the largest bearing on your projections. Knowing Moss I have his floor at 14-15TD. TD are very hard to predict. The Ceiling is twentyishagain just spitballing

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

It was in post 12....?

Why are you telling me that?

I probably can find it with the search thread function, or by scrolling.

Anyway, I'm not ignoring it --- in fact, I asked you specifically about it because I'm interested.

Is it a secret?

I pretty much just asked you for two things, and you didn't give me either one.

If anything, if they play more competitive games, that's just reason to expect them to score more rather than shut Brady down as you suggested they would, earlier.

 

[The Jerk]

Normaly in stable situations what occured last season would be a more relevant to expectations for the coming season. If we consider 2007 more relevant then it should have the largest bearing on your projections. Knowing Moss I have his floor at 14-15TD. TD are very hard to predict. The Ceiling is twentyish

I like your floor and cannot argue against the possibility of another 20+ TD ceiling. The hard part for me is that we only have one season for reference. While it's possible that Brady and Moss will get within shouting distance of their 2007 numbers in 2009, the strong historical trend is for a regression. Yet, Brady and Moss could regress by 20% and still be at 40 and 18-19 TDs.Given it's (excuse the pun) spread throughout the NFL and even college football, are defenses catching up at all to the spread offense? But with how good Brady has been and how freakish Moss is athletically, does that matter?

 

[David Yudkin]

How many players have ever had two record breaking or nearly record breaking seasons in their careers? Please post the examples, because there certainly aren't many of them . . .

 

[The Jerk]

It was in post 12....?Why are you telling me that?I probably can find it with the search thread function, or by scrolling.Anyway, I'm not ignoring it --- in fact, I asked you specifically about it because I'm interested.Is it a secret?I pretty much just asked you for two things, and you didn't give me either one.If anything, if they play more competitive games, that's just reason to expect them to score more rather than shut Brady down as you suggested they would, earlier.

Your shtick is already tired. I listed the entire season in points right in the post and I flat out told you why defense and margin of victory matter.If you don't want to answer the question, then just don't answer the question. My guess is you have no real answer to refute the downward trend that the numbers suggest. But if you choose not to answer, then don't go off calling my actual fact-based stats incorrect or misleading.

 

[The Jerk]

How many players have ever had two record breaking or nearly record breaking seasons in their careers? Please post the examples, because there certainly aren't many of them . . .

The one that always jumps up in my mind is Marino's 44 TDs two seasons after he threw 48 TDs. Of course, in his 15 other seasons, he never exceeded 30.Also, Emmitt Smith and Priest Holmes each had multiple 21+ rushing TD seasons. LINK

Top single-season rushing TD totals:

1. Tomlinson 28

2T. Alexander 27

2T. Holmes 27

4. Smith 25

5. Riggins 24

6T. Smith 21

6T. Holmes 21

(also tied at 21 are Terrell Davis, Terry Allen and Joe Morris)

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

How many players have ever had two record breaking or nearly record breaking seasons in their careers? Please post the examples, because there certainly aren't many of them . . .

Are we talking about Brady or Moss here, or both?The question I would ask you is whether it really makes a difference if Brady launches 50 TDs, or only 45.Moss scores 23 TDs, or just 20.The topic of the thread is actually about the '09 offense being better than 'o7, and that's a strong possibility, but even if that's off target, how far off target do you really think they'll be, and what's your reasoning?It seems to me that a bunch of people were surprised by '07 and they just continue to stubbornly think it was some kind of fluke to justify that surprise.Also, while we're talking, it seems the subject of this thread is the best offense in NFL history, yet you want to try to project it off a bunch of lesser performers.Do you really feel the '83 Redskins, or whoever, are relevant to this thread?

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

It was in post 12....?Why are you telling me that?I probably can find it with the search thread function, or by scrolling.Anyway, I'm not ignoring it --- in fact, I asked you specifically about it because I'm interested.Is it a secret?I pretty much just asked you for two things, and you didn't give me either one.If anything, if they play more competitive games, that's just reason to expect them to score more rather than shut Brady down as you suggested they would, earlier.

Your shtick is already tired.

Then I see we should have left it alone when I originally suggested it.I happily give you the win.

 

[David Yudkin]

How many players have ever had two record breaking or nearly record breaking seasons in their careers? Please post the examples, because there certainly aren't many of them . . .

Are we talking about Brady or Moss here, or both?The question I would ask you is whether it really makes a difference if Brady launches 50 TDs, or only 45.Moss scores 23 TDs, or just 20.The topic of the thread is actually about the '09 offense being better than 'o7, and that's a strong possibility, but even if that's off target, how far off target do you really think they'll be, and what's your reasoning?It seems to me that a bunch of people were surprised by '07 and they just continue to stubbornly think it was some kind of fluke to justify that surprise.Also, while we're talking, it seems the subject of this thread is the best offense in NFL history, yet you want to try to project it off a bunch of lesser performers.Do you really feel the '84 Redskins, or whoever, are relevant to this thread?

How many QBs have had two 40 TD seasons? Marino.How many receivers have had two 20 TD seasons? None. No one has even had two 18 TD seasons.I'm not saying that it can't happen, only that it is unlikely to happen.I suspect that the Patriots yardage will go up but their scoring will go down compared to 2007. And just because people say that they are a better offense doesn't automatically mean they are. Give the OL some injuries and they may not come close to 500 points scored.I haven't mapped out projections for the Pats yet, but I would not slot Brady for 40 TD or Moss for 20 TD.

 

[Biabreakable]

On the other hand, you were probably saying the same thing in '02 about St Louis.One of the reasons you don't see players or teams string together long runs of peak performance is injury, and that's exactly why you didn't see it last year.Of course, I have no idea how to predict injury.

Larry, welcome to FBG -- assuming you're a new poster, not just another alias.From the two threads we have both posted in, I am led to believe you are an avid Patriot fan. Good for you. I get that you are (or appear to be) a New England sports fan. Please understand that I am not insulting the Patriots by suggesting the odds are against them scoring 589 points again this season, or that even 500 points will be difficult.While discussion of teams and franchises and favorite players are all perfectly fine in the Shark Pool, certain threads are more about fantasy football relevance than others. To me, this is one of those threads. To your credit, you did share one insight concerning injuries, but that's somewhat irrelevant in that the comparison is between the 2007 Patriots and the projected 2009 Patriots. From my perspective, it's far more relevant to look at the three factors I mentioned earlier:1. The Patriots slowed down considerably in the second half of 2007.2. The AFC East is much stronger now than in 2007.3. Tom Brady is (possibly) less likely to play late in games that have already been clearly decided.Point 3 is unknowable and Belichick is a wild card, but a QB coming off injury would likely be protected more than one not coming off of injury, and that mindset may filter down to other key offensive cogs.Point 2 has more factual basis. The Dolphins/Jets/Bills went 25-17 vs. teams other than NE in 2008, whereas these same teams were 12-30 in 2007. That's a huge improvement and partly skewed due to an easier schedule in 2008. Point 1 is the most significant. Consider this:

2007 Patriots   avg.PF   avg.PA   avg.marginfirst 10 games	41.1	 15.7		25.4final 9 games	 27.1	 18.4		 8.7playoffs		  22.0	 16.3		 5.7

Perhaps part of this trend can be explained by the schedule becoming increasingly difficult, the colder weather slowing down offenses, and of course the pressure of remaining undefeated.So there's nothing wrong with being a fan and/or playing devil's advocate, but it's also nice to explore the numbers a little bit, too. FF is much more than just numbers, but FF success is nearly impossible without some foundation in statistics.

You make some very good points and I agree that the 2007 season for the Patriots was a special one where more than a little luck (SOS) contributed to.Also I think the novelty of scoring so many points may have worn off a bit later in the season when it isn't needed to win.If the Patriots could have run the ball better against the Giants for example might lead to a slower paced game and not as many points. But what the defense is forcing you to do by taking other elements away. The Giants found out week 17 that the Patriots need Moss to score to beat them. In the SB they focused much of the defense on pass rush and double covering Moss leaving other parts of the offense with better opportunities.I could also see a more conservative aproach in early games while Brady is getting his sea legs back so to speak.How good will Fred Taylor be?

 

[The Jerk]

I happily give you the win.

I don't keep score in these forums. I'm trying to become more knowledgeable about football on the rare night I have time to be here.Is it not odd that you have accused me of being incorrect and misleading but cannot or will not state why? You don't have to prove me wrong, but just explain what I did that was incorrect or misleading.Did the Patriots average 37 points in games 1-4 of 2007 or not?Did the Patriots average 45.75 points in games 5-8 of 2007 or not?Did the Patriots average 34.5 points in games 9-12 of 2007 or not?Did the Patriots average 30 points in games 13-16 of 2007 or not?Do the averages for the Patriots overall appear to be declining or not?If it's misleading, then enlighten me and the others as to why.Really, I can see Brady and/or Moss being the difference as to whether or not I win or lose my leagues this year. But I'd like to have some reasoning behind the decision, not just hope or possibilities.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

How many QBs have had two 40 TD seasons? Marino.How many receivers have had two 20 TD seasons? None. No one has even had two 18 TD seasons.I'm not saying that it can't happen, only that it is unlikely to happen.I suspect that the Patriots yardage will go up but their scoring will go down compared to 2007. And just because people say that they are a better offense doesn't automatically mean they are. Give the OL some injuries and they may not come close to 500 points scored.I haven't mapped out projections for the Pats yet, but I would not slot Brady for 40 TD or Moss for 20 TD.

Well, I'd like to make a couple points on that, but I think I'm going to confuse myself by directly contradicting one with another.First, people in fantasy football tend to get all wound up in these numbers and lose a little sight of what they're talking about.Statistics are simple and great when you're talking about rolling dice, spinning a roulette wheel, or flipping coins, but when you're talking about the NFL the are only accurate for viewing the past.You can certainly use the past to try to project the future, but that's not nearly so straightforward as the coin flipping because you're mainly talking about entirely different and distinct coins.So, for my second point, I'd like to draw a coin flipping analogy........If I was to look at a population of 100 flips, 5 heads in a row could be considered an 'outlier', or 'anomoly', so when you look back at it historically it would seem a bit of a fluke.However, after that 4th heads, when you're about to flip the coin, you've still got just as much chance for heads as you do tails --- your chances aren't decreased just because you already got the first 4 heads.edit

Give the OL some injuries and they may not come close to 500 points scored.

haha...I forgot this bit.I think if you're already using that kind of reasoning, I have a good idea of what you really think the '09 Pats will do, you just don't want to admit it.

 

[The Jerk]

How many players have ever had two record breaking or nearly record breaking seasons in their careers? Please post the examples, because there certainly aren't many of them . . .

Are we talking about Brady or Moss here, or both?The question I would ask you is whether it really makes a difference if Brady launches 50 TDs, or only 45.Moss scores 23 TDs, or just 20.The topic of the thread is actually about the '09 offense being better than 'o7, and that's a strong possibility, but even if that's off target, how far off target do you really think they'll be, and what's your reasoning?It seems to me that a bunch of people were surprised by '07 and they just continue to stubbornly think it was some kind of fluke to justify that surprise.Also, while we're talking, it seems the subject of this thread is the best offense in NFL history, yet you want to try to project it off a bunch of lesser performers.Do you really feel the '84 Redskins, or whoever, are relevant to this thread?

How many QBs have had two 40 TD seasons? Marino.How many receivers have had two 20 TD seasons? None. No one has even had two 18 TD seasons.I'm not saying that it can't happen, only that it is unlikely to happen.I suspect that the Patriots yardage will go up but their scoring will go down compared to 2007. And just because people say that they are a better offense doesn't automatically mean they are. Give the OL some injuries and they may not come close to 500 points scored.I haven't mapped out projections for the Pats yet, but I would not slot Brady for 40 TD or Moss for 20 TD.

Here's a list of QBs to top 40 passing TDs and their next two seasons:Manning: 49, 28, 31Marino: 48, 30, 44Marino: 44, 26, 28Warner: 41, 21, 36Although it feels cruel, I should add:Brady: 50, 0, ??If history is our guide, then Brady in year "n+2" has a 50% chance of dropping by more than a full third (like Manning and Marino II) and a 50% chance of dropping by 10% (like Marino I and Warner).From a pure probability/statistics standpoint, Brady's expected value is around 38-40 TDs.Of course, there is the issue of how his knee injury and rehab directly and indirectly affect his statistics. As Biabreakable said, will the Pats be more conservative on offense early in the season? Will the Patriots play with the anger they showed early in 2007 when there is not a fresh spygate scandal unfolding? It's hard to say.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Manning: 49, 28, 31Marino: 48, 30, 44Marino: 44, 26, 28Warner: 41, 21, 36Although it feels cruel, I should add:Brady: 50, 0, ??If history is our guide, then Brady in year "n+2" has a 50% chance of dropping by more than a full third (like Manning and Marino II) and a 50% chance of dropping by 10% (like Marino I and Warner).From a pure probability/statistics standpoint, Brady's expected value is around 38-40 TDs.Of course, there is the issue of how his knee injury and rehab directly and indirectly affect his statistics. As Biabreakable said, will the Pats be more conservative on offense early in the season? Will the Patriots play with the anger they showed early in 2007 when there is not a fresh spygate scandal unfolding? It's hard to say.

Could you stop, please?Biabreakable --- Personally, I think Fred has every chance to do great, although this kind of thing really depends on health.I'd say his main problem will be that if Maroney stays healthy I think Maroney gets the bulk of it, but we'll see.You kind of end up betting on Maroney's health vs Fred's --- and throw Sammy's health in there, I suppose.

 

[The Jerk]

Manning: 49, 28, 31Marino: 48, 30, 44Marino: 44, 26, 28Warner: 41, 21, 36Although it feels cruel, I should add:Brady: 50, 0, ??If history is our guide, then Brady in year "n+2" has a 50% chance of dropping by more than a full third (like Manning and Marino II) and a 50% chance of dropping by 10% (like Marino I and Warner).From a pure probability/statistics standpoint, Brady's expected value is around 38-40 TDs.Of course, there is the issue of how his knee injury and rehab directly and indirectly affect his statistics. As Biabreakable said, will the Pats be more conservative on offense early in the season? Will the Patriots play with the anger they showed early in 2007 when there is not a fresh spygate scandal unfolding? It's hard to say.

Could you stop, please?

If you find my inclusion of historical precedent and rudimentary calculations into a discussion of what to expect from the Patriots in 2009 offensive, do yourself a favor and please place me on "ignore" by going to my profile page.I can understand and even agree partially with your apparent stance that statistics and past results cannot accurately predict the future. However, if this concept is taken to its logical conclusion by ignoring ALL data, then what remains is complete guesswork and opinion. Why not suggest Joe Flacco will outperform Brady? It could happen.As I find value in past comparisons and have learned from others sharing even simple data like points scored per game and associated trends, I will continue to do so for like-minded people who I have interacted with in this forum and its predecessor for many years. I would ask you the courtesy of not deriding my efforts and I will attempt to reciprocate in kind.

 

[David Yudkin]

I find it interesting that the Pats defense has been downgraded in the eyes of many for players being too old the last couple of years. Yet this season their offense is older than the defense has been and people are saying they will be record breaking. Sure, if everyone stays healthy, Brady has no ill effects after not playing in 18 months, defenses don't adjust, their opponents are not as good as advertised, the weather stays perfect, and they get all the bounces that COULD happen. Here are the ages of some key guys on offense that will all be 30+ by the end of the season . . .

Joey Galloway 38

Fred Taylor 33

Kevin Faulk 33

Stephen Neal 33

Tom Brady 32

Randy Moss 32

Sammy Morris 32

Russ Hochstein 32

Matt Light 31

Chris Baker 30

Nick Kaczur 30

Dan Koppen 30

 

[Boston]

I think the Pats offense this year (on paper) is potentially more talented than the 2007 version. In 07 you had Moss/Welker/Stallworth/Gaffney at WR. This year you have Moss/Welker/Galloway/Lewis. Galloways's addition is very intriguing because his speed has to be accounted for and could really pose some defensive issues as teams focus on Moss and Welker. In 2007 Stallworth disappeared as the year went on and BB and company lost faith on him (Gaffney seemed to surpass him by the end of the year). Lewis at the #4 spot should be the ballpark of Gaffney. At TE the additions of Baker and Smith to Watson and Thomas give them more depth and Baker gives them a TE with far more reliable hands than what they had in 2007 (unfortunately TE catching has been very inconsistent during the Graham/Watson era). RB should at least be equal to 2007 and could be better if Taylor still has gas left in the tank. Obviously there is a negative x-factor as Faulk, Morris and Taylor are at an age where they can hit the wall quickly. The line is the same as it was in 2007 and 2008.

Overall I expect this offense to be better than 2009 in real football especially with Moss and Welker entering year three in the Patriot system. It has more diversity and I really thing the Patriot playcalling got lazy in the second half of 2007. That being said I don't expect them to put up the same numbers. 2007 was one of those crazy years where the statistical Gods came together and the numbers were beyond special. Overall there's no reasaon not to think this O will not be the best or right near the best in the NFL as long as #12 is healthy. Statwise i'll save the actual numbers for later but I expect a decrease from 2007 but still have them as elite and any owner with Brady-Moss-Welker will have a lot to smile about in 2009.

 

[David Yudkin]

I think the Pats offense this year (on paper) is more talented than the 2007 version. In 07 you had Moss/Welker/Gaffney at WR and than nothing else. This year you have Moss/Welker/Galloway/Lewis. Galloways's addition is very intriguing because his speed has to be accounted for and could really pose some defensive issues as teams focus on Moss and Welker. While Lewis will never be confused with Jerry Rice he's a big upgrade at the #4 spot. At TE the additions of Baker and Smith to Watson and Thomas give them more depth and Baker gives them a TE with far more reliable hands than what they had in 2007 (unfortunately TE catching has been very inconsistent during the Graham/Watson era). RB should at least be equal to 2007 and could be better if Taylor still has gas left in the tank. Obviously there is a negative x-factor as Faulk, Morris and Taylor are at an age where they can hit the wall quickly. The line is the same as it was in 2007 and 2008.Overall I expect this offense to be better than 2009 in real football especially with Moss and Welker entering year three in the Patriot system. It has more diversity and I really thing the Patriot playcalling got lazy in the second half of 2007. That being said I don't expect them to put up the same numbers. 2007 was one of those crazy years where the statistical Gods came together and the numbers were beyond special. Overall there's no reasaon not to think this O will not be the best or right near the best in the NFL as long as #12 is healthy. Statwise i'll save the actual numbers for later but I expect a decrease from 2007 but still have them as elite and any owner with Brady-Moss-Welker will have a lot to smile about in 2009.

You forgot about Stallworth from 07. I don't see Galloway version 2009 doing better than Stallworth circa 2007. Also, there are so many guys at RB and TE that it's unlikely they all stick on the roster.

 

[Boston]

I think the Pats offense this year (on paper) is more talented than the 2007 version. In 07 you had Moss/Welker/Gaffney at WR and than nothing else. This year you have Moss/Welker/Galloway/Lewis. Galloways's addition is very intriguing because his speed has to be accounted for and could really pose some defensive issues as teams focus on Moss and Welker. While Lewis will never be confused with Jerry Rice he's a big upgrade at the #4 spot. At TE the additions of Baker and Smith to Watson and Thomas give them more depth and Baker gives them a TE with far more reliable hands than what they had in 2007 (unfortunately TE catching has been very inconsistent during the Graham/Watson era). RB should at least be equal to 2007 and could be better if Taylor still has gas left in the tank. Obviously there is a negative x-factor as Faulk, Morris and Taylor are at an age where they can hit the wall quickly. The line is the same as it was in 2007 and 2008.Overall I expect this offense to be better than 2009 in real football especially with Moss and Welker entering year three in the Patriot system. It has more diversity and I really thing the Patriot playcalling got lazy in the second half of 2007. That being said I don't expect them to put up the same numbers. 2007 was one of those crazy years where the statistical Gods came together and the numbers were beyond special. Overall there's no reasaon not to think this O will not be the best or right near the best in the NFL as long as #12 is healthy. Statwise i'll save the actual numbers for later but I expect a decrease from 2007 but still have them as elite and any owner with Brady-Moss-Welker will have a lot to smile about in 2009.

You forgot about Stallworth from 07. I don't see Galloway version 2009 doing better than Stallworth circa 2007. Also, there are so many guys at RB and TE that it's unlikely they all stick on the roster.

You're absolutely right about Stallworth (that was a huge omission on my part and needed to correct my post...I was thinking of the 2008 unit) although I'm not sure Galloway can't be more effective as Stallwoth did not meet expectations. Hopefully Galloway can stay consistent for a full 16 whereas Stallworth turned into the invisible man. If he can remain consistent that is a potential upgrade although at his age that could be a reach. Agreed about TE and RB which is why I won't project numbers yet...I need to see how that shakes out but I do believe the Baker addition is one that has a chance to really pay some big dividends. A TE with consistent hands is something they haven't had since Fauria left and he was never a real big threat in the passing game.Have you heard anything about BJGE? Is he simply an afterthought? I thought he did a solid job last year when given an opportunity but I don't think I've heard his name mentioned once this offseason.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Have you heartd anything about BJGE? Is he simply an afterthought? I thought he did a solid job last year when given an opportunity but I don't I've heard his name mentioned once this offseason.

I don't think he's an afterthought -- he's just a practice squad guy who happens to be buried behind 3 or 4 other guys at his position.If he doesn't stick on the final roster you might see him again when one of those guys gets knocked out, which you'd think would happen at some point.

 

[Boston]

Have you heartd anything about BJGE? Is he simply an afterthought? I thought he did a solid job last year when given an opportunity but I don't I've heard his name mentioned once this offseason.

I don't think he's an afterthought -- he's just a practice squad guy who happens to be buried behind 3 or 4 other guys at his position.If he doesn't stick on the final roster you might see him again when one of those guys gets knocked out, which you'd think would happen at some point.

I don't see him being on the practice squad. I think he showed enough last year that another team will take a flyer on him.

 

[David Yudkin]

It's still very early, but here would be my first pass projections for the Pats offense . . .

BJGE and Thomas not on the team.

Passing

Brady 360/4360/34

O'Connell 30/300/2

390/4660/36

Rushing

Morris 160-700-8

Taylor 150-600-2

Maroney 100-425-3

Faulk 50-250-1

Brady 25-50-1

485-2025-15

Receiving

Welker 100-1150-6

Moss 90-1350-16

Faulk 50-400-2

Lewis 40-600-4

Galloway 35-425-2

Watson 20-200-3

Morris 15-120-0

Baker 10-100-1

Smith 10-100-1

Aiken 10-125-0

Taylor 5-40-0

Maroney 5-50-1

390-4660-36

6685 total yardage, 51 total offensive TD, 5 other TD

Gostkowski 30 FGM, 53 XP = 143 points scored

3 two point conversions and 1 safety

487 total points = 30.4 ppg

 

[Ron_Mexico]

It's still very early, but here would be my first pass projections for the Pats offense . . .BJGE and Thomas not on the team.PassingBrady 360/4360/34O'Connell 30/300/2390/4660/36RushingMorris 160-700-8Taylor 150-600-2Maroney 100-425-3Faulk 50-250-1Brady 25-50-1485-2025-15ReceivingWelker 100-1150-6Moss 90-1350-16Faulk 50-400-2Lewis 40-600-4Galloway 35-425-2Watson 20-200-3Morris 15-120-0Baker 10-100-1Smith 10-100-1Aiken 10-125-0Taylor 5-40-0Maroney 5-50-1390-4660-366685 total yardage, 51 total offensive TD, 5 other TDGostkowski 30 FGM, 53 XP = 143 points scored3 two point conversions and 1 safety487 total points = 30.4 ppg

Good stuff although I have to think Galloway averages more than 2 receptions per game this season.As far as the 2007 team goes, it was a perfect storm. I believe the Pats offense will againbe a machine, but it won't quite match the record setting numbers of 2007.

 

[David Yudkin]

It's still very early, but here would be my first pass projections for the Pats offense . . .BJGE and Thomas not on the team.PassingBrady 360/4360/34O'Connell 30/300/2390/4660/36RushingMorris 160-700-8Taylor 150-600-2Maroney 100-425-3Faulk 50-250-1Brady 25-50-1485-2025-15ReceivingWelker 100-1150-6Moss 90-1350-16Faulk 50-400-2Lewis 40-600-4Galloway 35-425-2Watson 20-200-3Morris 15-120-0Baker 10-100-1Smith 10-100-1Aiken 10-125-0Taylor 5-40-0Maroney 5-50-1390-4660-366685 total yardage, 51 total offensive TD, 5 other TDGostkowski 30 FGM, 53 XP = 143 points scored3 two point conversions and 1 safety487 total points = 30.4 ppg

Good stuff although I have to think Galloway averages more than 2 receptions per game this season.As far as the 2007 team goes, it was a perfect storm. I believe the Pats offense will againbe a machine, but it won't quite match the record setting numbers of 2007.

I think Galloway is an injury waiting to happen, so I'm factoring in that he won't be available much and not all that productive when he is. Should have made that clearer . . .

 

[Boston]

It's still very early, but here would be my first pass projections for the Pats offense . . .BJGE and Thomas not on the team.PassingBrady 360/4360/34O'Connell 30/300/2390/4660/36RushingMorris 160-700-8Taylor 150-600-2Maroney 100-425-3Faulk 50-250-1Brady 25-50-1485-2025-15ReceivingWelker 100-1150-6Moss 90-1350-16Faulk 50-400-2Lewis 40-600-4Galloway 35-425-2Watson 20-200-3Morris 15-120-0Baker 10-100-1Smith 10-100-1Aiken 10-125-0Taylor 5-40-0Maroney 5-50-1390-4660-366685 total yardage, 51 total offensive TD, 5 other TDGostkowski 30 FGM, 53 XP = 143 points scored3 two point conversions and 1 safety487 total points = 30.4 ppg

Why do you see Baker with only 10 receptions? I think he'll have closer to 35-40 receptions as I see him being the TE most involved with the passing game. I think he may turn out to be their most reliable option at TE.

 

[David Yudkin]

It's still very early, but here would be my first pass projections for the Pats offense . . .BJGE and Thomas not on the team.PassingBrady 360/4360/34O'Connell 30/300/2390/4660/36RushingMorris 160-700-8Taylor 150-600-2Maroney 100-425-3Faulk 50-250-1Brady 25-50-1485-2025-15ReceivingWelker 100-1150-6Moss 90-1350-16Faulk 50-400-2Lewis 40-600-4Galloway 35-425-2Watson 20-200-3Morris 15-120-0Baker 10-100-1Smith 10-100-1Aiken 10-125-0Taylor 5-40-0Maroney 5-50-1390-4660-366685 total yardage, 51 total offensive TD, 5 other TDGostkowski 30 FGM, 53 XP = 143 points scored3 two point conversions and 1 safety487 total points = 30.4 ppg

Why do you see Baker with only 10 receptions? I think he'll have closer to 35-40 receptions as I see him being the TE most involved with the passing game. I think he may turn out to be their most reliable option at TE.

Because I see them running out of the shotgun with 4 receivers and ignoring the TE for the most part. Also when they use one I think they have whoever it is block a lot.The TE spot combined only saw 30/300/2 in 2007.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

The TE spot combined only saw 30/300/2 in 2007.

Ummmmm....what now?Could we get some accurate #'s in this thread, please?

 

[cdwood]

One item mentioned as to why the Patriots '09 might not score as many points as the Patriots '07 was that the other teams in the AFC East are better teams than they were in 2007. I felt this point got ignored. I bring it up because I wanted to offer a counterpoint to this reason and would hope that someone might look into the stats behind it.

While I agree that the other AFC East teams are better now than they were in '07, my counterpoint is that the '09 Patriots are playing a 2nd place schedule this season, whereas in the 2007 season they were playing a first place schedule. I know its debatable as to whether SOS is a predictor of anything, but its possible that NE has a more favorable schedule to putting up more points than they did in 2007.

Christopher

 

[Boston]

It's still very early, but here would be my first pass projections for the Pats offense . . .BJGE and Thomas not on the team.PassingBrady 360/4360/34O'Connell 30/300/2390/4660/36RushingMorris 160-700-8Taylor 150-600-2Maroney 100-425-3Faulk 50-250-1Brady 25-50-1485-2025-15ReceivingWelker 100-1150-6Moss 90-1350-16Faulk 50-400-2Lewis 40-600-4Galloway 35-425-2Watson 20-200-3Morris 15-120-0Baker 10-100-1Smith 10-100-1Aiken 10-125-0Taylor 5-40-0Maroney 5-50-1390-4660-366685 total yardage, 51 total offensive TD, 5 other TDGostkowski 30 FGM, 53 XP = 143 points scored3 two point conversions and 1 safety487 total points = 30.4 ppg

Why do you see Baker with only 10 receptions? I think he'll have closer to 35-40 receptions as I see him being the TE most involved with the passing game. I think he may turn out to be their most reliable option at TE.

Because I see them running out of the shotgun with 4 receivers and ignoring the TE for the most part. Also when they use one I think they have whoever it is block a lot.The TE spot combined only saw 30/300/2 in 2007.

I'll counter that by saying that's one reason the Pats signed Baker very quickly. With Thomas and Watson underperforming there wasn't a reason to use the TE. Why pass to them regularly if they can't execute or they drop easy balls, especially when you have other quality weapons.I strongly believe that if Baker (or Smith for that matter) shows he can be a reliable target that will catch what Brady throws to him he'll be a very active member of their offense. BB has tried to get a legit threat at TE for quite sometime. Watson and Graham were #1's and Thomas was a #3 (Mills was a #4 as well) but unfortunately none of these guys showed the hands (or overall ability in Thomas and Mills case) to be used on a regular basis. Baker has always looked solid in the passing game to me and while I don't think he'll be a stud I think he can become a trusted target for Brady and in this offense if you earn Brady's trust you'll see the ball.