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NFC playoffs could see a 5-11 team in and a 12-4 team out (1 Viewer)

Raider Nation

Devil's Advocate
PFT article:

Here’s how bad the NFC South is, and how good the NFC wild card race is: There are scenarios in which a 5-11 team is in the playoffs as NFC South champion, and a 12-4 team is left out of the playoffs entirely.

We noted last week that it’s entirely possible that a five-win team could win the NFC South. That scenario only became more plausible on Sunday, when both NFC South teams in action lost.

And with four of the NFC’s worst teams concentrated in one division, that means there are more good teams in the other divisions than there are playoff spots available. There are seven NFC teams — the Cardinals, Packers, Eagles, Cowboys, Seahawks, Lions and 49ers — that could still win 12 games, and there are plausible scenarios in which six of those seven actually reach the 12-win mark. (All seven can’t do it because the Seahawks and 49ers, who still play each other twice, can’t both get to 12 wins.) Only five of those seven teams with hopes of getting to 12 wins can make the playoffs because at least one of the six NFC playoff spots has to go to the NFC South champion.

Using ESPN’s NFL Playoff Machine, I found a scenario that saw the Packers finishing at 12-4, losing the NFC North tiebreaker to the 12-4 Lions, and then losing the NFC wild card tiebreaker to the 12-4 Cowboys and 49ers.

Green Bay fans would be livid if that happened, although that scenario is a long shot. However, there are plausible scenarios that have an 11-5 team missing the playoffs while a 5-11 team wins the NFC South.
 
yeah, when brady went down in '08 pats lost the tiebreaker to the dolphins and missed the playoffs with 11 wins

that nfc south is crazy

 
I'd be in favor of seeding the playoffs based on records and ignoring divisions.

At the very least, seed the playoff teams by record alone. It was ridiculous a few years ago when 7-9 Seattle got to host a playoff game just because it won a rotten division.

 
I'd be in favor of seeding the playoffs based on records and ignoring divisions.
No point in having divisions then. I'm not really sure what the purpose of 8 divisions is. Why not have two 16-team conferences?
Divisions are awesome. Builds rivalries and allows for important games late in the season. It all rotates anyway. In a few years the NFC south will be the best division in football.
 
I'd be in favor of seeding the playoffs based on records and ignoring divisions.
No point in having divisions then. I'm not really sure what the purpose of 8 divisions is. Why not have two 16-team conferences?
the point in having divisions is so that more teams are in the hunt down the stretch, which keeps up fan interest.

if there were 2 16 team conferences all 4 nfc south teams would be hopelessly out of contention right now

I agree with teh other poster, though, about letting record determine seeding, while division winners still make the playoffs.

 
Ultimately, does it really matter? Whoever wins the SB is just going to lucksack there way into a championship. The playoffs are so high variance it's amazing that people put so much weight into them. It's like fantasy football playoffs..with more variance.

 
Keep the divisions and the seeding system in place, but why couldn't you just do an NFL version of "bowl eligible"?

8 wins minimum to qualify for the playoffs. If a division can't produce an 8-8 team, another wild card team goes in and the top wild card team gets a 4 seed and a first round home game.

 
Keep the divisions and the seeding system in place, but why couldn't you just do an NFL version of "bowl eligible"?

8 wins minimum to qualify for the playoffs. If a division can't produce an 8-8 team, another wild card team goes in and the top wild card team gets a 4 seed and a first round home game.
I've advocated for something similar... winning your division is still winning your division, so you should get that, but if you are 7-9 or worse, you should NOT host a playoff game.

 
Keep the divisions and the seeding system in place, but why couldn't you just do an NFL version of "bowl eligible"?

8 wins minimum to qualify for the playoffs. If a division can't produce an 8-8 team, another wild card team goes in and the top wild card team gets a 4 seed and a first round home game.
That would never get support because those home playoff games make big money, and every team in every division wants a chance at a slice of that pie. And it keeps fan interest up around the NFL.

 
Ultimately, does it really matter? Whoever wins the SB is just going to lucksack there way into a championship. The playoffs are so high variance it's amazing that people put so much weight into them. It's like fantasy football playoffs..with more variance.
the fun part will be seeing a 5-11 or 6-10 team get hot at the right time and win the Super Bowl.

 
Wasn't it like the start of last year that everybody thought the NFC south was awesome?

The NFL is kind of stupid.

 
Wasn't it like the start of last year that everybody thought the NFC south was awesome?

The NFL is kind of stupid.
We often under estimate the impact OL has on the success of a team. The Falcons and Panthers would be a lot better if they had average or better lines.

 
I've complained about the way the NFL has their playoffs set up for years. Most think I'm crazy and it's fine, though. To me it's ludicrous that teams with losing records, in this case pathetic records, can get in the playoffs because of these silly divisions they've set up. If The NFC South sends a team to the postseason and gets to host a game with a say, 5-11 or 6-10 record. I think people will join the fight. It's embarrassing IMO.

 
This will be good if it happens because hopefully it will force Goodell to act and change the playoff format based on divisional record.

 
Raider Nation said:
Jack White said:
I'd be in favor of seeding the playoffs based on records and ignoring divisions.
No point in having divisions then. I'm not really sure what the purpose of 8 divisions is. Why not have two 16-team conferences?
Moving to Wales and Campbell conferences sounds about right.

 
Raider Nation said:
Jack White said:
I'd be in favor of seeding the playoffs based on records and ignoring divisions.
No point in having divisions then. I'm not really sure what the purpose of 8 divisions is. Why not have two 16-team conferences?
Moving to Wales and Campbell conferences sounds about right.
What about 4 divisions of 8?
As long as the Jets and Giants get the Patrick Division.

 
Raider Nation said:
Jack White said:
I'd be in favor of seeding the playoffs based on records and ignoring divisions.
No point in having divisions then. I'm not really sure what the purpose of 8 divisions is. Why not have two 16-team conferences?
Moving to Wales and Campbell conferences sounds about right.
What about 4 divisions of 8?
Add teams in LA, London, Toronto and San Antonio. Each conference would have 3 divisions of 6 teams each.

 
So then The NFL this year could mirror some fantasy leagues that seed by points scored rather than won-loss records. The Saints get in with a losing record while a 12-4 team sits home. In fact it looks exactly like one league I'm in.

 
Jack White said:
I'd be in favor of seeding the playoffs based on records and ignoring divisions.

At the very least, seed the playoff teams by record alone. It was ridiculous a few years ago when 7-9 Seattle got to host a playoff game just because it won a rotten division.
It was ridiculous last year when the Packers hosted the Niners in round 1 too.

 
The thing that is messed up is with the seeding. The NFC South will produce the 4th seed that will play the 5th seed in the wild card round. The 3rd seed gets screwed here as they will play the 6th seed and possibly a 11-5 / 12-4 team.

This making the 1st round bye more important because you don't won't to be the 3rd or 6th seeds.

 
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The thing that is messed up is with the seeding. The NFC South will produce the 4th seed that will play the 5th seed in the wild card round. The 3rd seed gets screwed here as they will play the 6th seed and possibly a 11-5 / 12-4 team.

This making the 1st round bye more important because you don't won't to be the 3rd or 6th seeds.
Yeah, it doesn't seem to me like this is a hard problem to solve.

There's no reason to mess with the divisional format - besides preserving rivalries, eight 4-team divisions is the cleanest way to make a 16-game schedule fair, non-arbitrary, and predictable years in advance. That's a lot harder to pull off with four 8's, six 6's, etc.

All you have to do is seed each conference 1-6 based on overall record come playoff time (with H2H followed by SOS as tie-breakers). The #3 and #4 seeds get home games regardless of whether they won their division or finished in 3rd place.

Personally, on top of that I'd set an 8-win qualifying threshold for the playoffs and have a third wild card take the place of any sub-.500 division winner, but that's just me.

 
A 6-9-1 team will win. Who knew that tie is what will get Carolina back into the playoffs.

As for the Wild cards, I don't see a 12-4 team missing but there will be an 11-5 team just outside.

 
Keep the divisions and the seeding system in place, but why couldn't you just do an NFL version of "bowl eligible"?

8 wins minimum to qualify for the playoffs. If a division can't produce an 8-8 team, another wild card team goes in and the top wild card team gets a 4 seed and a first round home game.
That would never get support because those home playoff games make big money, and every team in every division wants a chance at a slice of that pie. And it keeps fan interest up around the NFL.
This is why it'll never change. I'm fine with the division winner getting into the tournament, but each side needs to re-seed for it. Low record should essentially be a wildcard team regardless of division championship.

 
The last time a team with a losing record made the playoffs all that happened was they won in the first round, then won a Super Bowl the next year and were a juggernaut everyone drooled over.

 
The thing that is messed up is with the seeding. The NFC South will produce the 4th seed that will play the 5th seed in the wild card round. The 3rd seed gets screwed here as they will play the 6th seed and possibly a 11-5 / 12-4 team.

This making the 1st round bye more important because you don't won't to be the 3rd or 6th seeds.
Yeah, it doesn't seem to me like this is a hard problem to solve.

There's no reason to mess with the divisional format - besides preserving rivalries, eight 4-team divisions is the cleanest way to make a 16-game schedule fair, non-arbitrary, and predictable years in advance. That's a lot harder to pull off with four 8's, six 6's, etc.

All you have to do is seed each conference 1-6 based on overall record come playoff time (with H2H followed by SOS as tie-breakers). The #3 and #4 seeds get home games regardless of whether they won their division or finished in 3rd place.

Personally, on top of that I'd set an 8-win qualifying threshold for the playoffs and have a third wild card take the place of any sub-.500 division winner, but that's just me.
My thoughts exactly...
 
The last time a team with a losing record made the playoffs all that happened was they won in the first round, then won a Super Bowl the next year and were a juggernaut everyone drooled over.
Seattle won the division at 7-9 in 2010. They missed the playoffs the following year at 7-9. They won the super bowl in 2013.

 
The last time a team with a losing record made the playoffs all that happened was they won in the first round, then won a Super Bowl the next year and were a juggernaut everyone drooled over.
Seattle won the division at 7-9 in 2010. They missed the playoffs the following year at 7-9. They won the super bowl in 2013.
And Lynch caused an earthquake.

It would be interesting if Saints win their division and Seattle has to go there to play, the media would eat that story up.

 
36 team NFL gets us 6 divisions of 6... which would be awesome
10 division games 4 other Conference games and 2 non conference. Messy but maybe.
Part of the reason the NFL went to the current format was the constant griping from fans (and, more importantly, owners) about how infrequently they got to play against (and, in their case, travel to) teams in the other conference. I doubt you'd find much support for a schedule with an 18-year cycle for hosting non-conference opponents.

Six 6's almost cries out for each division playing 10 in-division games and the 6 teams in one of the other five divisions on a rotating basis ... yeah, it works, but with that setup "conferences" become kind of a notional concept.

 
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36 team NFL gets us 6 divisions of 6... which would be awesome
10 division games 4 other Conference games and 2 non conference. Messy but maybe.
Part of the reason the NFL went to the current format was the constant griping from fans (and, more importantly, owners) about how infrequently they got to play against (and, in their case, travel to) teams in the other conference. I doubt you'd find much support for a schedule with an 18-year cycle for hosting non-conference opponents.

Six 6's almost cries out for each division playing 10 in-division games and the 6 teams in one of the other five divisions on a rotating basis ... yeah, it works, but with that setup "conferences" become kind of a notional concept.
Probably why it wouldn't happen.

 
I'd be in favor of seeding the playoffs based on records and ignoring divisions.
No point in having divisions then. I'm not really sure what the purpose of 8 divisions is. Why not have two 16-team conferences?
Moving to Wales and Campbell conferences sounds about right.
What about 4 divisions of 8?
Add two teams in LA, London, a team in Toronto Las Vegas and another in San Antonio. Each conference would have 3 divisions of 6 teams each.
Fixed.

 
I would like keeping the playoffs as it is and having homefield advantage be determined by record. Matchups still go based off seed.

So if the 5-10-1 Panthers make it into the playoffs as the #4 seed they still play the 10-6 wildcard Niners in San Fran

Maintains the current system that creates late season interest while not doubling down on rewarding teams for playing in a bad division that year.

 
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36 team NFL gets us 6 divisions of 6... which would be awesome
10 division games 4 other Conference games and 2 non conference. Messy but maybe.
Part of the reason the NFL went to the current format was the constant griping from fans (and, more importantly, owners) about how infrequently they got to play against (and, in their case, travel to) teams in the other conference. I doubt you'd find much support for a schedule with an 18-year cycle for hosting non-conference opponents.

Six 6's almost cries out for each division playing 10 in-division games and the 6 teams in one of the other five divisions on a rotating basis ... yeah, it works, but with that setup "conferences" become kind of a notional concept.
You guys are all assuming it would stay at 16 games if they added teams. Think 18, with only 2 pre-season games.

10 in-division games

6 games with rotating divisions

I could also see 3 games from 2 different divisions based on last year's record

2 non-conference games

Personally, I like that the divisions matter. It makes for good rivalries and even though you get a stinker division once in a while, that's the price you pay. Keep the emphasis on division play.

 
Simple solution is have the better record host the playoff game. If a 9-7 division winner plays a 9-7 WC team, the 1st tiebreaker to host a game is division winner

 
Simple solution is have the better record host the playoff game. If a 9-7 division winner plays a 9-7 WC team, the 1st tiebreaker to host a game is division winner
I don't agree with this at all. The objective should be to put the best 6 teams from each conference into the playoffs. Teams getting in with losing records because they won a ridiculously small and weak division is BS.

 
Simple solution is have the better record host the playoff game. If a 9-7 division winner plays a 9-7 WC team, the 1st tiebreaker to host a game is division winner
I don't agree with this at all. The objective should be to put the best 6 teams from each conference into the playoffs. Teams getting in with losing records because they won a ridiculously small and weak division is BS.
I don't agree with your sentiment, if divisions exist then they should matter.

If we want the best 6 teams to make it to the playoffs then eliminate divisions.

 
Simple solution is have the better record host the playoff game. If a 9-7 division winner plays a 9-7 WC team, the 1st tiebreaker to host a game is division winner
I don't agree with this at all. The objective should be to put the best 6 teams from each conference into the playoffs. Teams getting in with losing records because they won a ridiculously small and weak division is BS.
There are a lot of reasons to emphasize the divisions, and having the division winner get into the playoffs is the biggest way to emphasize it that they have. If you are the 7th team behind that team, sure you may have reason to cry, but tough luck. Win your division next time and you guarantee yourself a spot.

 

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