Saints; oil prices are down globally, not just in the US
Insomniac: In the previous years oil price was an expectation about future demand driven by China. With lower than expected GDP growth and lower than expected demand there as a result (this is simplified) that expectation has changed. The new expectation is that supply outstrips demand. And the price curve is really steep for oil when you go just a little the other way across the balance point.
Thanks. So are gas prices down globally as well?
How do you fall on whether we should expect our presidents to affect the price of gas?
They are down 20-25% in Europe. They were subsidized in Brazil so they are stable there. Overall as I understand it the gas and all other oil derivative prices are down on a global level.
I think that a world leader can only affect oil price if the supply/demand situation is very close to balanced and a policy change sends it over the tipping point.
Be it Obama, Xi, Putin or King Abdullah. Most of these guys pull in different directions though so that makes it harder to predict.
If Xi Jinping tomorrow enacted some set of laws that would increase China's demand by 1m bopd, the prices would rise, overnight.
Or if OPEC (through the Saudis) or Russia dropped production by 1.5m bopd, the price would rise overnight.
What is much more likely is that Xi will do one thing, Putin another, Obama a third and so on, and the net effect would either be big enough to tip the scales (and the prices would rise) or it would be not enough and the prices stay down.
The market is a complicated place and no single player rules it all anymore.