Offensive Rookie of the Year (2 Viewers)

[Stitch]

RG3 should win. Best player in this draft and possibly in the entire NFL

 

[Raider Nation]

Hasn't Indy made the playoffs 7 of the last 8 years? Seattle has scraped in to the playoffs a couple times over that period. Seems like Luck has inherited the better team.

Pretty sure he inherited one of the worst teams in the league.

 

[LarryAllen'sJockstrap]

Hasn't Indy made the playoffs 7 of the last 8 years? Seattle has scraped in to the playoffs a couple times over that period. Seems like Luck has inherited the better team.

Pretty sure he inherited one of the worst teams in the league.

This year Indy has beaten 8 teams. Those 8 teams are a combined 38 & 58 (40% wins). Even if you take away those teams' losses to the Colts and they are 38 and 50 (43% win percentage)I like Luck a lot, and I think he will be very succesful long term. However, he is not wowing anyone statistically this year. I agree he has had a major impact on this team and is the reason for a number of those 8 wins, but from a purely stats point, here is where he sits ranking wise in some of the major categories (out of 34 QBs that have .- 3rd in pass attempts- 32nd in completion %- 4th in passing yards- 17th in yards per attempt- 14th in TD passes- 1st (worst) in interceptions- 29th in passer rating.Basically, give Brandon Weeden another 70 attempts and you would project out nearly identical season stats for the two.I don't think the value of what Luck has contributed to the Colt's record is enough to surpass what RGIII has done on the field. Just my opinion.

 

[thatguy]

Hasn't Indy made the playoffs 7 of the last 8 years? Seattle has scraped in to the playoffs a couple times over that period. Seems like Luck has inherited the better team.

Pretty sure he inherited one of the worst teams in the league.

This year Indy has beaten 8 teams. Those 8 teams are a combined 38 & 58 (40% wins). Even if you take away those teams' losses to the Colts and they are 38 and 50 (43% win percentage)I like Luck a lot, and I think he will be very succesful long term. However, he is not wowing anyone statistically this year. I agree he has had a major impact on this team and is the reason for a number of those 8 wins, but from a purely stats point, here is where he sits ranking wise in some of the major categories (out of 34 QBs that have .- 3rd in pass attempts- 32nd in completion %- 4th in passing yards- 17th in yards per attempt- 14th in TD passes- 1st (worst) in interceptions- 29th in passer rating.Basically, give Brandon Weeden another 70 attempts and you would project out nearly identical season stats for the two.I don't think the value of what Luck has contributed to the Colt's record is enough to surpass what RGIII has done on the field. Just my opinion.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Hasn't Indy made the playoffs 7 of the last 8 years? Seattle has scraped in to the playoffs a couple times over that period. Seems like Luck has inherited the better team.

Pretty sure he inherited one of the worst teams in the league.

This year Indy has beaten 8 teams. Those 8 teams are a combined 38 & 58 (40% wins). Even if you take away those teams' losses to the Colts and they are 38 and 50 (43% win percentage)I like Luck a lot, and I think he will be very succesful long term. However, he is not wowing anyone statistically this year. I agree he has had a major impact on this team and is the reason for a number of those 8 wins, but from a purely stats point, here is where he sits ranking wise in some of the major categories (out of 34 QBs that have .- 3rd in pass attempts- 32nd in completion %- 4th in passing yards- 17th in yards per attempt- 14th in TD passes- 1st (worst) in interceptions- 29th in passer rating.Basically, give Brandon Weeden another 70 attempts and you would project out nearly identical season stats for the two.I don't think the value of what Luck has contributed to the Colt's record is enough to surpass what RGIII has done on the field. Just my opinion.

The difference between Luck and the other rookie QBs is that the Colts aren't babying Luck at all, he's being treated like a 5+ year veteran in that the Colts are fully relying on him to lead the team to victory each and every week with no running game threat. Taking that into account with everything else, this makes any notion that Luck has been worse than any other rookie besides RG3 absurd, imo. RG3 has been phenomenal, but his major downfall relative to Luck imo is that the Redskins treat Griffin like a rookie QB; they barely let him throw the ball even though their defense sucks and they're oftentimes down points. I'd still have no issue at all with RG3 winning the OROY over Luck though, which shows how efficient RG3 has been when asked to throw.Another thing to keep in mind though is that the Colts lead the league in defensive pass interference calls against, and by a wide margin. So if defenders weren't holding Colts WRs on some of those plays Luck's passing numbers would probably look considerably nicer.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Hasn't Indy made the playoffs 7 of the last 8 years? Seattle has scraped in to the playoffs a couple times over that period. Seems like Luck has inherited the better team.

Pretty sure he inherited one of the worst teams in the league.

This year Indy has beaten 8 teams. Those 8 teams are a combined 38 & 58 (40% wins). Even if you take away those teams' losses to the Colts and they are 38 and 50 (43% win percentage)I like Luck a lot, and I think he will be very succesful long term. However, he is not wowing anyone statistically this year. I agree he has had a major impact on this team and is the reason for a number of those 8 wins, but from a purely stats point, here is where he sits ranking wise in some of the major categories (out of 34 QBs that have .- 3rd in pass attempts- 32nd in completion %- 4th in passing yards- 17th in yards per attempt- 14th in TD passes- 1st (worst) in interceptions- 29th in passer rating.Basically, give Brandon Weeden another 70 attempts and you would project out nearly identical season stats for the two.I don't think the value of what Luck has contributed to the Colt's record is enough to surpass what RGIII has done on the field. Just my opinion.

The difference between Luck and the other rookie QBs is that the Colts aren't babying Luck at all, he's being treated like a 5+ year veteran in that the Colts are fully relying on him to lead the team to victory each and every week with no running game threat. Taking that into account with everything else, this makes any notion that Luck has been worse than any other rookie besides RG3 absurd, imo. RG3 has been phenomenal, but his major downfall relative to Luck imo is that the Redskins treat Griffin like a rookie QB; they barely let him throw the ball even though their defense sucks and they're oftentimes down points. I'd still have no issue at all with RG3 winning the OROY over Luck though, which shows how efficient RG3 has been when asked to throw.Another thing to keep in mind though is that the Colts lead the league in defensive pass interference calls against, and by a wide margin. So if defenders weren't holding Colts WRs on some of those plays Luck's passing numbers would probably look considerably nicer.

Interesting. I was looking at nfl.penalties.com and just eyeballing and adding it up in my head, Indy has 4 more defensive PI calls (15 vs. 11 for NE) than the next team. The lea[gue] average is 6.5. In terms of yardage, it's about 50 more than the Pats, 25 more (202 to 177) than the Giants.No running game whatsoever - the point is made repeatedly whenever talking about Luck. Yet somehow the Colts are 14th in attempts, 17th in rushing yards, 15th in TDs, 8th in rushing FDs. I would think a team with no running threat at all would be bottom 5 in at least some (or one) of those categories.I like Luck, but it seems like people are taking a preconceived notion and trying to stretch stats to match their narrative.

 

[snore]

RG3 should win. Best player in this draft and possibly in the entire NFL

Best player in the NFL? Really? Adrian Peterson down? He has led his team to as many wins as RG3.

 

[snore]

Hasn't Indy made the playoffs 7 of the last 8 years? Seattle has scraped in to the playoffs a couple times over that period. Seems like Luck has inherited the better team.

Pretty sure he inherited one of the worst teams in the league.

This year Indy has beaten 8 teams. Those 8 teams are a combined 38 & 58 (40% wins). Even if you take away those teams' losses to the Colts and they are 38 and 50 (43% win percentage)I like Luck a lot, and I think he will be very succesful long term. However, he is not wowing anyone statistically this year. I agree he has had a major impact on this team and is the reason for a number of those 8 wins, but from a purely stats point, here is where he sits ranking wise in some of the major categories (out of 34 QBs that have .- 3rd in pass attempts- 32nd in completion %- 4th in passing yards- 17th in yards per attempt- 14th in TD passes- 1st (worst) in interceptions- 29th in passer rating.Basically, give Brandon Weeden another 70 attempts and you would project out nearly identical season stats for the two.I don't think the value of what Luck has contributed to the Colt's record is enough to surpass what RGIII has done on the field. Just my opinion.

Stats dont account for being straight cash like Luck was during the 4th quarter yesterday. Think Brandon Weeden could do that consistently? Probably not. Could luck do it consistently? More so than Weeden I would bet. Elway wasnt a stats machine but he had that special something that doesnt show up in stats. I think Luck has that something.

 

[LarryAllen'sJockstrap]

The difference between Luck and the other rookie QBs is that the Colts aren't babying Luck at all, he's being treated like a 5+ year veteran in that the Colts are fully relying on him to lead the team to victory each and every week with no running game threat. Taking that into account with everything else, this makes any notion that Luck has been worse than any other rookie besides RG3 absurd, imo.

I agree with the fact that Luck has been given much more responsibility to operate his offense vs. RGIII and Wilson. That doesn't mean he should somehow get a mulligan in regards to how he stacks up against the other candidates for ROY. Look at their pass/attempts & total touches:

Luck - 503 attempt, 44 rushes, 547 total.

RGIII - 304 attempts, 100 rushes, 404 total

Wilson - 317 attempts, 66 rushes, 383 total

Now look at their productivity:

Luck - 3596 passing yards, 216 rushing yards, 3812 total; 22 total TDs, 21 total turnovers.

RGIII - 2497 passing yards, 642 rushing yards, 3139 total; 22 total TDs, 6 total turnovers.

Wilson - 2344 passing yards, 298 rushing yards, 2642 total; 19 total TDs, 11 total turnovers.

Lastly, efficiency (per play)

Luck - 6.97 yards, 0.040 TDs, 0.038 INTs

RGIII - 7.77 yards, 0.054 TDs, 0.015 INTs

Wilson - 6.90 yards, 0.050 TDs, 0.029 INTs

No matter how you qualify it, the quantitative fact is that Luck is the least efficient of the 3 main rookie QBs this season. A case can be argued that his massive advantage in productivity over Wilson would give him an edge ROY wise, but between him and RGIII, he is not only far less efficient, but also not that much more productive (overall).

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Hasn't Indy made the playoffs 7 of the last 8 years? Seattle has scraped in to the playoffs a couple times over that period. Seems like Luck has inherited the better team.

Pretty sure he inherited one of the worst teams in the league.

This year Indy has beaten 8 teams. Those 8 teams are a combined 38 & 58 (40% wins). Even if you take away those teams' losses to the Colts and they are 38 and 50 (43% win percentage)I like Luck a lot, and I think he will be very succesful long term. However, he is not wowing anyone statistically this year. I agree he has had a major impact on this team and is the reason for a number of those 8 wins, but from a purely stats point, here is where he sits ranking wise in some of the major categories (out of 34 QBs that have .- 3rd in pass attempts- 32nd in completion %- 4th in passing yards- 17th in yards per attempt- 14th in TD passes- 1st (worst) in interceptions- 29th in passer rating.Basically, give Brandon Weeden another 70 attempts and you would project out nearly identical season stats for the two.I don't think the value of what Luck has contributed to the Colt's record is enough to surpass what RGIII has done on the field. Just my opinion.

The difference between Luck and the other rookie QBs is that the Colts aren't babying Luck at all, he's being treated like a 5+ year veteran in that the Colts are fully relying on him to lead the team to victory each and every week with no running game threat. Taking that into account with everything else, this makes any notion that Luck has been worse than any other rookie besides RG3 absurd, imo. RG3 has been phenomenal, but his major downfall relative to Luck imo is that the Redskins treat Griffin like a rookie QB; they barely let him throw the ball even though their defense sucks and they're oftentimes down points. I'd still have no issue at all with RG3 winning the OROY over Luck though, which shows how efficient RG3 has been when asked to throw.Another thing to keep in mind though is that the Colts lead the league in defensive pass interference calls against, and by a wide margin. So if defenders weren't holding Colts WRs on some of those plays Luck's passing numbers would probably look considerably nicer.

Interesting. I was looking at nfl.penalties.com and just eyeballing and adding it up in my head, Indy has 4 more defensive PI calls (15 vs. 11 for NE) than the next team. The lea[gue] average is 6.5. In terms of yardage, it's about 50 more than the Pats, 25 more (202 to 177) than the Giants.No running game whatsoever - the point is made repeatedly whenever talking about Luck. Yet somehow the Colts are 14th in attempts, 17th in rushing yards, 15th in TDs, 8th in rushing FDs. I would think a team with no running threat at all would be bottom 5 in at least some (or one) of those categories.I like Luck, but it seems like people are taking a preconceived notion and trying to stretch stats to match their narrative.

Can you link the nfl.penalties website you're talking about? I didn't know the NFL broke down penalty stats and I can't find the site you're talking about.As for the Colts running game, Luck's direct impact on the team's running game should be noted, such as his 200+ rushing yards and his team leading 5 rushing TDs, which happens to be more TDs than all Colts RBs combined. If we look at only RB carries, Indy ranks 16th in attempts, 24th in rushing yards, 25th in rushing yards per carry, and 28th in rushing TDs. And getting to face Jacksonville and Tennessee twice each, I'm guessing they've faced one of the easier rushing schedules in the league.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Here you go

http://www.nflpenalties.com/

 

[Time Kibitzer]

The difference between Luck and the other rookie QBs is that the Colts aren't babying Luck at all, he's being treated like a 5+ year veteran in that the Colts are fully relying on him to lead the team to victory each and every week with no running game threat. Taking that into account with everything else, this makes any notion that Luck has been worse than any other rookie besides RG3 absurd, imo.

I agree with the fact that Luck has been given much more responsibility to operate his offense vs. RGIII and Wilson. That doesn't mean he should somehow get a mulligan in regards to how he stacks up against the other candidates for ROY. Look at their pass/attempts & total touches:

Luck - 503 attempt, 44 rushes, 547 total.

RGIII - 304 attempts, 100 rushes, 404 total

Wilson - 317 attempts, 66 rushes, 383 total

Now look at their productivity:

Luck - 3596 passing yards, 216 rushing yards, 3812 total; 22 total TDs, 21 total turnovers.

RGIII - 2497 passing yards, 642 rushing yards, 3139 total; 22 total TDs, 6 total turnovers.

Wilson - 2344 passing yards, 298 rushing yards, 2642 total; 19 total TDs, 11 total turnovers.

Lastly, efficiency (per play)

Luck - 6.97 yards, 0.040 TDs, 0.038 INTs

RGIII - 7.77 yards, 0.054 TDs, 0.015 INTs

Wilson - 6.90 yards, 0.050 TDs, 0.029 INTs

No matter how you qualify it, the quantitative fact is that Luck is the least efficient of the 3 main rookie QBs this season. A case can be argued that his massive advantage in productivity over Wilson would give him an edge ROY wise, but between him and RGIII, he is not only far less efficient, but also not that much more productive (overall).

In regard to the bolded, I'm not saying it should be automatically qualify Luck for the OROY, I'm just saying looking only at efficiency numbers and ignoring that Luck is his team's offense whereas the other QBs have been given training wheels shouldn't be ignored. When you also consider the fact that the Colts have blown away everyone's expectations at the beginning the year transforming from a 2-14 team to a currently 8-4 team despite having very few personnel changes despite the obvious one at QB, I think it's more than fair to excuse some of his inefficiency woes and consider him a favourite for the OROY.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Here you gohttp://www.nflpenalties.com/

Cool site, thanks

 

[Stitch]

RG3 should win. Best player in this draft and possibly in the entire NFL

Best player in the NFL? Really? Adrian Peterson down? He has led his team to as many wins as RG3.

RG3 beat Adrian Peterson just a few weeks ago. Had about 100 more yards rushing than AD. So yeah, he's better than Peterson.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Hasn't Indy made the playoffs 7 of the last 8 years? Seattle has scraped in to the playoffs a couple times over that period. Seems like Luck has inherited the better team.

Pretty sure he inherited one of the worst teams in the league.

This year Indy has beaten 8 teams. Those 8 teams are a combined 38 & 58 (40% wins). Even if you take away those teams' losses to the Colts and they are 38 and 50 (43% win percentage)I like Luck a lot, and I think he will be very succesful long term. However, he is not wowing anyone statistically this year. I agree he has had a major impact on this team and is the reason for a number of those 8 wins, but from a purely stats point, here is where he sits ranking wise in some of the major categories (out of 34 QBs that have .- 3rd in pass attempts- 32nd in completion %- 4th in passing yards- 17th in yards per attempt- 14th in TD passes- 1st (worst) in interceptions- 29th in passer rating.Basically, give Brandon Weeden another 70 attempts and you would project out nearly identical season stats for the two.I don't think the value of what Luck has contributed to the Colt's record is enough to surpass what RGIII has done on the field. Just my opinion.

The difference between Luck and the other rookie QBs is that the Colts aren't babying Luck at all, he's being treated like a 5+ year veteran in that the Colts are fully relying on him to lead the team to victory each and every week with no running game threat. Taking that into account with everything else, this makes any notion that Luck has been worse than any other rookie besides RG3 absurd, imo. RG3 has been phenomenal, but his major downfall relative to Luck imo is that the Redskins treat Griffin like a rookie QB; they barely let him throw the ball even though their defense sucks and they're oftentimes down points. I'd still have no issue at all with RG3 winning the OROY over Luck though, which shows how efficient RG3 has been when asked to throw.Another thing to keep in mind though is that the Colts lead the league in defensive pass interference calls against, and by a wide margin. So if defenders weren't holding Colts WRs on some of those plays Luck's passing numbers would probably look considerably nicer.

Interesting. I was looking at nfl.penalties.com and just eyeballing and adding it up in my head, Indy has 4 more defensive PI calls (15 vs. 11 for NE) than the next team. The lea[gue] average is 6.5. In terms of yardage, it's about 50 more than the Pats, 25 more (202 to 177) than the Giants.No running game whatsoever - the point is made repeatedly whenever talking about Luck. Yet somehow the Colts are 14th in attempts, 17th in rushing yards, 15th in TDs, 8th in rushing FDs. I would think a team with no running threat at all would be bottom 5 in at least some (or one) of those categories.I like Luck, but it seems like people are taking a preconceived notion and trying to stretch stats to match their narrative.

Can you link the nfl.penalties website you're talking about? I didn't know the NFL broke down penalty stats and I can't find the site you're talking about.As for the Colts running game, Luck's direct impact on the team's running game should be noted, such as his 200+ rushing yards and his team leading 5 rushing TDs, which happens to be more TDs than all Colts RBs combined. If we look at only RB carries, Indy ranks 16th in attempts, 24th in rushing yards, 25th in rushing yards per carry, and 28th in rushing TDs. And getting to face Jacksonville and Tennessee twice each, I'm guessing they've faced one of the easier rushing schedules in the league.

Hmmm...Washington RBs are 29th in attempts, 20th in yards, 15th in TDs. Do you know how many more yards the dominant running game of the Redskins has than the Colts? Well, it's a ton when you look at the team stats (like 50-60 per game). But RGIII has around 600. Amongst just RBs, the 'skins have 59 more yards (one less game). Indy RBs have 38 more yards receiving. Granted, we'll have to wait until tomorrow to see where both are at after 12 games each - or do the arithmetic for me - but I think it's a lot closer than people perceive.Not germane to the discussion, but this is a heckuva an offensive rookie class with the top 3 QBs, Tannehill is better than expected, Weeden is competent, Martin is a stud, Morris is serviceable. Not a great WR class but Blackmon could end up being special.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Hasn't Indy made the playoffs 7 of the last 8 years? Seattle has scraped in to the playoffs a couple times over that period. Seems like Luck has inherited the better team.

Pretty sure he inherited one of the worst teams in the league.

This year Indy has beaten 8 teams. Those 8 teams are a combined 38 & 58 (40% wins). Even if you take away those teams' losses to the Colts and they are 38 and 50 (43% win percentage)I like Luck a lot, and I think he will be very succesful long term. However, he is not wowing anyone statistically this year. I agree he has had a major impact on this team and is the reason for a number of those 8 wins, but from a purely stats point, here is where he sits ranking wise in some of the major categories (out of 34 QBs that have .- 3rd in pass attempts- 32nd in completion %- 4th in passing yards- 17th in yards per attempt- 14th in TD passes- 1st (worst) in interceptions- 29th in passer rating.Basically, give Brandon Weeden another 70 attempts and you would project out nearly identical season stats for the two.I don't think the value of what Luck has contributed to the Colt's record is enough to surpass what RGIII has done on the field. Just my opinion.

The difference between Luck and the other rookie QBs is that the Colts aren't babying Luck at all, he's being treated like a 5+ year veteran in that the Colts are fully relying on him to lead the team to victory each and every week with no running game threat. Taking that into account with everything else, this makes any notion that Luck has been worse than any other rookie besides RG3 absurd, imo. RG3 has been phenomenal, but his major downfall relative to Luck imo is that the Redskins treat Griffin like a rookie QB; they barely let him throw the ball even though their defense sucks and they're oftentimes down points. I'd still have no issue at all with RG3 winning the OROY over Luck though, which shows how efficient RG3 has been when asked to throw.Another thing to keep in mind though is that the Colts lead the league in defensive pass interference calls against, and by a wide margin. So if defenders weren't holding Colts WRs on some of those plays Luck's passing numbers would probably look considerably nicer.

Interesting. I was looking at nfl.penalties.com and just eyeballing and adding it up in my head, Indy has 4 more defensive PI calls (15 vs. 11 for NE) than the next team. The lea[gue] average is 6.5. In terms of yardage, it's about 50 more than the Pats, 25 more (202 to 177) than the Giants.No running game whatsoever - the point is made repeatedly whenever talking about Luck. Yet somehow the Colts are 14th in attempts, 17th in rushing yards, 15th in TDs, 8th in rushing FDs. I would think a team with no running threat at all would be bottom 5 in at least some (or one) of those categories.I like Luck, but it seems like people are taking a preconceived notion and trying to stretch stats to match their narrative.

Can you link the nfl.penalties website you're talking about? I didn't know the NFL broke down penalty stats and I can't find the site you're talking about.As for the Colts running game, Luck's direct impact on the team's running game should be noted, such as his 200+ rushing yards and his team leading 5 rushing TDs, which happens to be more TDs than all Colts RBs combined. If we look at only RB carries, Indy ranks 16th in attempts, 24th in rushing yards, 25th in rushing yards per carry, and 28th in rushing TDs. And getting to face Jacksonville and Tennessee twice each, I'm guessing they've faced one of the easier rushing schedules in the league.

Hmmm...Washington RBs are 29th in attempts, 20th in yards, 15th in TDs. Do you know how many more yards the dominant running game of the Redskins has than the Colts? Well, it's a ton when you look at the team stats (like 50-60 per game). But RGIII has around 600. Amongst just RBs, the 'skins have 59 more yards (one less game). Indy RBs have 38 more yards receiving. Granted, we'll have to wait until tomorrow to see where both are at after 12 games each - or do the arithmetic for me - but I think it's a lot closer than people perceive.Not germane to the discussion, but this is a heckuva an offensive rookie class with the top 3 QBs, Tannehill is better than expected, Weeden is competent, Martin is a stud, Morris is serviceable. Not a great WR class but Blackmon could end up being special.

Redskins RBs rank 7th in yards per carry, which is pretty damn good considering every NFC East team having an above average rush defense. But honestly I have no issue with those who think RG3 is more deserving of the OROY than Luck, I just think there's not much of a case for Russell Wilson or Doug Martin, which isn't to say those players haven't been fantastic themselves.

 

[pizzatyme]

2 horse race between Luck and RGIII.

Luck has Wayne but also TY Hilton, Donnie Avery, 2 rookie TEs, and a weak running game and defense.

RGIII has a hodge podge of support as well.

I am for co-winners.

 

[ImTheScientist]

3. Wilson - RGIII lite. Not as dynamic and less on the ground, but efficient and winning games.

fwiw their games are COMPLETELY different. Wilson has to make reads & go through progressions. Wilson scrambles to pass, RGIII is looking to run when his only progression is covered. Wilson runs a NFL system, RGIII is currently running a college system. Wilson style is unique, if you were forced to compare his "style" to Luck or RGIII he is closer to Luck.

 

[DevilintheDetail]

Here's a GREAT comparison of Wilson and Luck vs. the same 7 opponents this season. Wilson comes out WAY ahead.

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/83695/wilson-luck-vs-same-seven-opponents