*****Official #1 Pick Thread****** (1 Viewer)

[Judge Smails]

Didn't find one in a search. I have the first pick in a 12 team, non ppr redraft. Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR/TE, 1 flex, 1 DST and 1 K. All TD's 6 points. Fairly heavy defensive scoring based on yards against, points against, etc. Teams can score 25 or -6.

I was between Charles and McCoy, but based on the difference in O-lines and strength of schedule I'm heavily leaving towards McCoy. I know some would take ADP in a non PPR, but I don't know if I could watch the Viking offense all year. Still a 1 man show.

I think more than anything the #1 pick success this year comes to maximizing the swings and 2/3 and 4/5. I'm confident enough in picking good value after that. But can't make a mistake with those 4 picks. I know for sure I'll be taking one RB, as it will be woefully thin for me picking at 48 in round 4. I'm hoping an Alfred Morris type falls to me at 24. Likely pairing him with best WR available, typically a Jordy Nelson type. But, I may go for a 3rd RB if someone starting with 20 carries is there.

As for pick 48, I'll be watching QB's as I have a floor in our 6 point TD league that I want to have on my roster. Would hope to wait until the 6/7 swing, but it depends. I'm going to be flexible after that.

What's your strategy?

 

[Captain Quinoa]

Non ppr, 6 pt all TD? Manning

 

[LOCO]

never has the 1st pick in my many years of playing fanasty football. i am almost anxious having this freaking pick.

in a 12 team, ppr i am going Charles. i like mccoy but concern that sproles or someone else is going to be taking some carries from him. i almost want to take peterson because i know what i am going to get with him. but you are right the 2/3rd swing and 4/5 swing are important.

i think WR feels deep, deep. so it is important getting a rb#2 with that 2/3rd pick. part of me really likes those WRs in the 4/5 more than the rbs.

so

charles

morris

stacy

Djax

Harvin

looks better than

charles

morris

nelson

djax

Trich

as examples.

 

[Judge Smails]

Non ppr, 6 pt all TD? Manning

Respectfully disagree. For one, I think he has a significant drop off this year. Every QB who had a record setting year (Brady, Brees, Rodgers, etc) had a significant fall off the following year. Aged another year, lost Decker, lost Moreno. It won't be that easy. Nobody drafting a QB early has done well in our league in recent years, 6 point TD's or not.

 

[Judge Smails]

never has the 1st pick in my many years of playing fanasty football. i am almost anxious having this freaking pick.

in a 12 team, ppr i am going Charles. i like mccoy but concern that sproles or someone else is going to be taking some carries from him. i almost want to take peterson because i know what i am going to get with him. but you are right the 2/3rd swing and 4/5 swing are important.

i think WR feels deep, deep. so it is important getting a rb#2 with that 2/3rd pick. part of me really likes those WRs in the 4/5 more than the rbs.

so

charles

morris

stacy

Djax

Harvin

looks better than

charles

morris

nelson

djax

Trich

as examples.

I agree with this, especially in a flex league. Really want that 3rd solid RB.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

1.01 - http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=708436

1.01 (nonPPR) - http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=710179

 

[Long Ball Larry]

At 2/3, you are probably looking at this players:

Bernard

Morris

Martin

Stacy

Nelson

Antonio Brown

Jeffery

At 4/5, you are looking at:

DJax

Cordarelle

Harvin

Gore

Gerhart

Jennings

Sankey

So I think definitely going for at least 1 RB at 2/3 is the way to go.

 

[Keith R]

At 2/3, you are probably looking at this players:

Bernard

Morris

Martin

Stacy

Nelson

Antonio Brown

Jeffery

At 4/5, you are looking at:

DJax

Cordarelle

Harvin

Gore

Gerhart

Jennings

Sankey

So I think definitely going for at least 1 RB at 2/3 is the way to go.

Agree with going RB at #1.

The short list among RBs is Charles, McCoy, and Peterson. Of that group, I favor McCoy. He is the safest play of the bunch and (at least IMO) the least vulnerable to injury. I can handle my #1 overall pick finishing 5th among RBs. I cannot handle him finishing outside of the top 15 at his position.

 

[Phenomena]

Non ppr, 6 pt all TD? Manning

You must read Doyle Brunson... SPREAD MAXIMUM DISINFORMATION.

FWIW the only way he's worth the 1.01 in a PPR league is if he throws 55 TDs again. Not 54. Not 50. 55 TDs. If you expect him to duplicate that, go nuts at the 1.01.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Non ppr, 6 pt all TD? Manning

You must read Doyle Brunson... SPREAD MAXIMUM DISINFORMATION.

FWIW the only way he's worth the 1.01 in a PPR league is if he throws 55 TDs again. Not 54. Not 50. 55 TDs. If you expect him to duplicate that, go nuts at the 1.01.

how many yards and TDs do you expect him to throw for?

 

[cvnpoka]

never has the 1st pick in my many years of playing fanasty football. i am almost anxious having this freaking pick.

in a 12 team, ppr i am going Charles. i like mccoy but concern that sproles or someone else is going to be taking some carries from him. i almost want to take peterson because i know what i am going to get with him. but you are right the 2/3rd swing and 4/5 swing are important.

i think WR feels deep, deep. so it is important getting a rb#2 with that 2/3rd pick. part of me really likes those WRs in the 4/5 more than the rbs.

so

charles

morris

stacy

Djax

Harvin

looks better than

charles

morris

nelson

djax

Trich

as examples.

I agree with this, especially in a flex league. Really want that 3rd solid RB.

disagree for sure. the mid rounds are littered with comparable rbs in ppr. but theres a large dropoff for wr from guys like jordy, brown, jeffery to who is available at the next turn. and jordy will put up more fantasy points than guys like stacy, ellington, lynch. its a different story if foster or bell or ball fall all the way back there.

 

[James Daulton]

I have the first pick in a 12 team non-ppr league that's been around a long time. Much like JS's league, there's one flex between RB/WR/TE and 6pts all TDs.

Through 3 rounds I've gone:

1.1 Charles

2.12 Foster

3.1 Nelson

Morris, Bernard, and Jeffries were all gone.

 

[Captain Quinoa]

Non ppr, 6 pt all TD? Manning

You must read Doyle Brunson... SPREAD MAXIMUM DISINFORMATION.

FWIW the only way he's worth the 1.01 in a PPR league is if he throws 55 TDs again. Not 54. Not 50. 55 TDs. If you expect him to duplicate that, go nuts at the 1.01.

Bolded for you

 

[LOCO]

I have the first pick in a 12 team non-ppr league that's been around a long time. Much like JS's league, there's one flex between RB/WR/TE and 6pts all TDs.

Through 3 rounds I've gone:

1.1 Charles

2.12 Foster

3.1 Nelson

Morris, Bernard, and Jeffries were all gone.

curious about 4/5 turn. who was there?

 

[Phenomena]

Non ppr, 6 pt all TD? Manning

You must read Doyle Brunson... SPREAD MAXIMUM DISINFORMATION.

FWIW the only way he's worth the 1.01 in a PPR league is if he throws 55 TDs again. Not 54. Not 50. 55 TDs. If you expect him to duplicate that, go nuts at the 1.01.

Bolded for you

It doesn't matter. In non-PPR he'd still have to throw 53.

If he throws a much more reasonable 45 (which is still a LOT of TDs) then he's worth a mid-2nd.

 

[Phenomena]

I have the first pick in a 12 team non-ppr league that's been around a long time. Much like JS's league, there's one flex between RB/WR/TE and 6pts all TDs.

Through 3 rounds I've gone:

1.1 Charles

2.12 Foster

3.1 Nelson

Morris, Bernard, and Jeffries were all gone.

I would be shocked if Nelson was available in any of my leagues at the 2/3 turn. He's rarely there in mocks and almost certainly wouldn't be in any decent money league. Nelson's per game average with Rodgers over the last three years is absurd. Probably 5th WR or so. He shouldn't be falling past the 2.09.

Brown is there about 80% of the time and represents similar value, though.

I like my teams quite a bit when I go RB/WR/Julius Thomas in the first three rounds, when drafting in the 1.01-1.05 range. It gives a lot of flexibility later to take the best RB/WR in any given round.

I also really like going RB/WR/WR/WR/WR in the first 5 rounds in any PPR league. You can really stack your scoring power by loading up on WRs. Plenty of decent TE options in the 7th+ and this year I don't think you need to spend a pick on a QB before round 8. In non-PPR i'd probably try to get two RBs in the first three rounds.

 

[James Daulton]

I have the first pick in a 12 team non-ppr league that's been around a long time. Much like JS's league, there's one flex between RB/WR/TE and 6pts all TDs.

Through 3 rounds I've gone:

1.1 Charles

2.12 Foster

3.1 Nelson

Morris, Bernard, and Jeffries were all gone.

I would be shocked if Nelson was available in any of my leagues at the 2/3 turn. He's rarely there in mocks and almost certainly wouldn't be in any decent money league. Nelson's per game average with Rodgers over the last three years is absurd. Probably 5th WR or so. He shouldn't be falling past the 2.09.

I was a little shocked to see him there too. The big 3 QBs went and the following WRs went in the first two rounds: Calvin, Thomas, Green, Bryant, Jones, Marshall, and Jeffery. I was pleased to see Nelson there as the 8th WR off the board.

 

[Phenomena]

I have the first pick in a 12 team non-ppr league that's been around a long time. Much like JS's league, there's one flex between RB/WR/TE and 6pts all TDs.

Through 3 rounds I've gone:

1.1 Charles

2.12 Foster

3.1 Nelson

Morris, Bernard, and Jeffries were all gone.

I would be shocked if Nelson was available in any of my leagues at the 2/3 turn. He's rarely there in mocks and almost certainly wouldn't be in any decent money league. Nelson's per game average with Rodgers over the last three years is absurd. Probably 5th WR or so. He shouldn't be falling past the 2.09.

I was a little shocked to see him there too. The big 3 QBs went and the following WRs went in the first two rounds: Calvin, Thomas, Green, Bryant, Jones, Marshall, and Jeffery. I was pleased to see Nelson there as the 8th WR off the board.

Morris or Gio before Nelson is laughable in any format. Especially for Gio in non-PPR. He's not going to be a 300+ touch guy. He's not Lacy. Lacy didn't even get to 290 when Rodgers got hurt and he's a complete back.

 

[Judge Smails]

I have the first pick in a 12 team non-ppr league that's been around a long time. Much like JS's league, there's one flex between RB/WR/TE and 6pts all TDs.

Through 3 rounds I've gone:

1.1 Charles

2.12 Foster

3.1 Nelson

Morris, Bernard, and Jeffries were all gone.

I would be shocked if Nelson was available in any of my leagues at the 2/3 turn. He's rarely there in mocks and almost certainly wouldn't be in any decent money league. Nelson's per game average with Rodgers over the last three years is absurd. Probably 5th WR or so. He shouldn't be falling past the 2.09.

I was a little shocked to see him there too. The big 3 QBs went and the following WRs went in the first two rounds: Calvin, Thomas, Green, Bryant, Jones, Marshall, and Jeffery. I was pleased to see Nelson there as the 8th WR off the board.

Morris or Gio before Nelson is laughable in any format. Especially for Gio in non-PPR. He's not going to be a 300+ touch guy. He's not Lacy. Lacy didn't even get to 290 when Rodgers got hurt and he's a complete back.

No it's not. If you're one of the owners who drafted one of the big 5-6 WR's are you going to come back and draft Nelson before getting a RB. You'll be left with Reggie Bush as your RB1. You good with that? I'm getting what's left of Gio, Morris or Stacy at 24, and maybe at 25. Somebody has to slip.In our league, without question the following will be gone before pick 24:

QB's

1) Manning

2) Brees

3) Rodgers

WR's

4) Calvin Johnson

5) Demarius Thomas

6) AJ Green

7) Dez Bryant

8) Jimmy Graham

9) Julio Jones

RB's

10) Charles

11) McCoy

12) ADP

13) Forte

14) Lacy

15) Lynch

16) Murray

17) Ball

18) Bell

That leaves as possibilities for the next 8 picks or so:

Brandon Marshall

Alshon Jeffrey

Jordy Nelson

Antonio Brown

Randall Cobb

Arian Foster

Gio

Alfred Morris

Zac Stacy

Doug Martin

5 of those will go before our pick at #24. So likely to have 5 of the remaining to choose from. My hunch? Gio will go as he is a sexier pick. So will Marshall and Antonio Brown. Just too consistent. So that leaves 5 out of the following 7 - Jeffrey (think he'll go), Nelson, Cobb, Foster, Morris, Stacy, Martin. Really want one of the 2 - Jeffrey or Nelson, and either Morris or Stacy. Barring injuries I can't see not having the above options at #24/25.

At last that's what I'm planning for. I actually don't think it's a bad spot, as IMO the draft sorta drops a tier after 28 on ADP.

 

[James Daulton]

Through five rounds so far:

1.01 Charles

2.12 Foster

3.01 Nelson

4.12 Rice

5.01 Harvin

I know that Rice has the 2 game suspension, but he looks way better this year than last and I think he's going to blow up in Kubiak's offense. I'd have like to have waited another round for both him and Harvin, but I doubt either would have made it back to me. My other options at the 4/5 turn were Garcon, Desean Jackson, Fitzgerald, Patterson, Foles.

 

[Josh the FunkDOC]

if i were in a PPR league that allowed trading draft picks, i would try to move down to #4-5 and get forte. don't really see this big gap between him and mccoy/charles, and would easily take him over peterson in PPR. and since others do seem to see a big gap between the "big 3" RBs and the rest, i think there's solid value to be had in that deal.

 

[Judge Smails]

Man I'm really torn as to which way to go with the 2-3 swing. I start 2 RB and a flex, so RB's are a precious commodity. That being said, don't want to over reach for one if I can help it. RB's look really scarce after the 48-49 picks. My goal as of today and doing several mocks on fantasy calculator is to have my 3rd RB by the 5th round (49 overall).

Thinking:

1) McCoy

2/3 - Best WR/RB - likely a Martin and Antonio Brown/Jeffrey/Cobb type

4/5 - Same thing. I'm shooting for a few WR's here, including Harvin, Patterson, Sanders, etc. Someone will fall. RB's will be the likes of Jennings, Gore, Chris Johnson, maybe Gerhart, etc.

All living breathing RB's seem to be scooped in round 5/6.

So the start could look like:

McCoy

Martin (Foster may slip, Stacy an option)

Antonio Brown

Patterson

Chris Johnson

Still lots of WR's and QB's I like will be available from 6 on. I tried some mocks getting a QB earlier and hated my team every time. Thoughts on this strategy/start?

 

[Bills_Fan11]

Drew this pick as well in a non-ppr. We start 2RBs, 2WRs and 2RB/WR/Flex. First question is does the additional flex de-value QB a bit? I think it does but not sure it matters. In the unlikely event Brees or Rodgers is there at the 2/3 turn I'm taking them; otherwise I'll wait a while.

Though it's probably a good idea to vary your strategy in mocks, I seem to invariably end up with the same guys every time. One of Morris/Foster/Leveon plus Jeffery or Cobb at the 2/3. +1 to whoever said getting Nelson there is pretty much a pipe dream.

The 4/5 is typically a struggle for me.

It feels like a reach pick a RB out of the Joique/Sankey/Vereen/Rice/Tate/TRich/Miller/CJ3/Ridley group. So I usually grab two WR's instead like Floyd & Harvin and hope one of those RB's falls to the 6th. Of course if they don't I hate my RB3...

Does everyone agree it's too early for Jordan Cameron there? I sorta think so but could be convinced otherwise...

McCoy fwiw is my first choice with AP 2nd. I just think there's way too many red flags w/ the Chiefs OL and that offense.

 

[Gottabesweet]

Drafted last night

Went

Mccoy

Jeffrey

Gronk

Luck

Patterson

Richardson

Rice

12 team PPR, start 2RB, 2WR, TE, FLEX

Bench WR's/Flex will be either Richardson, T. Austin, Hopkins, Watkins, Bradshaw

 

[Judge Smails]

Drew this pick as well in a non-ppr. We start 2RBs, 2WRs and 2RB/WR/Flex. First question is does the additional flex de-value QB a bit? I think it does but not sure it matters. In the unlikely event Brees or Rodgers is there at the 2/3 turn I'm taking them; otherwise I'll wait a while.

Though it's probably a good idea to vary your strategy in mocks, I seem to invariably end up with the same guys every time. One of Morris/Foster/Leveon plus Jeffery or Cobb at the 2/3. +1 to whoever said getting Nelson there is pretty much a pipe dream.

The 4/5 is typically a struggle for me.

It feels like a reach pick a RB out of the Joique/Sankey/Vereen/Rice/Tate/TRich/Miller/CJ3/Ridley group. So I usually grab two WR's instead like Floyd & Harvin and hope one of those RB's falls to the 6th. Of course if they don't I hate my RB3...

Does everyone agree it's too early for Jordan Cameron there? I sorta think so but could be convinced otherwise...

McCoy fwiw is my first choice with AP 2nd. I just think there's way too many red flags w/ the Chiefs OL and that offense.

don't understand Cameron if TE isn't required. Plenty of other WR options I like better there.Have you mocked going 3 RB's 1-3?

 

[Bills_Fan11]

Oh ya a TE is required; guess I wrongly implied it wasn't.

Yes I've started with McCoy/Morris/Bell a few times. It ends up looking passable I guess but hard to get excited when it feels like I'm a bit below average at every other position. Plus it pretty much locks me in to WR/WR at the 4/5 since there's never an available QB or TE worth taking in those slots.

 

[Judge Smails]

Oh ya a TE is required; guess I wrongly implied it wasn't.

Yes I've started with McCoy/Morris/Bell a few times. It ends up looking passable I guess but hard to get excited when it feels like I'm a bit below average at every other position. Plus it pretty much locks me in to WR/WR at the 4/5 since there's never an available QB or TE worth taking in those slots.

I agree. That's why I'm pretty much set on McCoy then WR/RB, then WR/RB again. Lots of flexibility with this route and pretty sure it'll be the last time I'll get a serviceable startable flex RB without throwing darts on a part time back.

 

[(HULK)]

At 2/3, you are probably looking at this players:

Bernard

Morris

Martin

Stacy

Nelson

Antonio Brown

Jeffery

At 4/5, you are looking at:

DJax

Cordarelle

Harvin

Gore

Gerhart

Jennings

Sankey

So I think definitely going for at least 1 RB at 2/3 is the way to go.

Just drew the #1 in a draft thats tomorrow night. Nonppr, 12 teams, 1QB,2RB,2WR,1TE,1RB/WR/TE,1K,1D

I would be ecstatic if I could go McCoy, Morris, Bernard, Harvin, Patterson to start out. Not sure if thats still possible. But it would be a dominant start imo

 

[AAABatteries]

In our 12-team PPR (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE) got the following:

1.1 Charles

2.12 Le'Veon

3.1. Gronk

4.12. Cordarelle

5.1. Hilton

Like the first 4 picks a lot but felt I had to take Hilton or have nothing left at WR. Ended up with Kaep and Wilson as QBs. I feel like I have a good starting lineup but depth isn't great.