What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

***Official*** 2016 defending Super Bowl Champion Denver Broncos (1 Viewer)

moleculo

Footballguy
What a fantastic finish to 2015! Still hasn’t really sunk in that we are Superbowl champs. 2015 was an amazing ride, but it’s time to start thinking about 2016.

For the first time in a long time, I don’t think there will be any coaching turn-over. Wade is not a risk to take a head coaching position, I think he will have a job in Denver as long has he wants. Well deserved, too. Dennison – I do think he could be improved on, but the offense was really handicapped last year, between the OL turnover and the QB situation.

Personnel wise – there will be some changes in 2016. This team has quite a few pending FA’s, and not as much room to re-sign as we need. Elway said that priority #1 is to try to keep the defense together. Kudos to Elway for already getting Wolfe under contract - that's huge because it's one less deal to worry about. It's hard to say how these negotiations will go. A case can be made that there are bigger dollars to be made elsewhere - SB accolades can do that to a career. But, most of that defense will still be intact so there is plenty of incentive to stay in Denver.

Key free agents (IMO order of priority):

  • Von Miller – will be tagged, and will eventually sign a deal making him the highest paid non QB in the league…and he will be worth every penny. Here's an article on what to expect for Vons upcoming deal.
  • Malik Jackson – I would love to see him back, but I think he follows the money. He’s earned a big pay-day. The Broncos won’t be able to afford him. He was talking about his pay-day leading up to the superbowl. Someone like the raiders (and JDR) will snag him and over pay him.
  • Brandon Marshall – RFA status will help the Broncos re-sign him. I expect him to be tendered at the first round level.
  • Danny Trevathan – another guy I expect to cash in. He was talking about going to Chicago to get paid pre-SB50 (John Fox connection).
  • David Brunton – this is a guy I’d love the Broncos to keep. He is a leader on ST, a leader in the locker room, and finally started making plays this season in the defensive back field. He has earned the right to go somewhere to start.
  • Brock Osweiler – I’ve been hearing that Cleveland is interested in overpaying for Brock. I don’t think Denver will be able to match Clevelands paycheck. Gotta say, it would make for an interesting decision… follow the paycheck to go to Cleveland, or stay in Denver, take over the reigns of a defending SB championship team (with a defense that takes all of the pressure off of you), and have Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders to throw to? Sounds like an easy decision, but I could certainly understand a guy chasing what may be his only chance at cashing in big-time.
  • CJ Anderson – another RFA. I’m thinking 2nd round tender for CJ.
  • Matt Paradis – ERFA. Really came along nicely starting in his first season.
  • Evan Mathis – dude already took less money to play for a contender. We’ll see if he will do that again.
Possible cuts/restructures:

  • Obviously PFM heads the list. No real reason to discuss him any further. He counts $21.5M vs the cap, with $2.5M if released.
  • DeMarcus Ware – has a really big cap number for 2016. I think when they brought him in, it was really a 2 year deal with a 3rd year balloon. We’ll see what they want to do with him. I’m not sure they can afford him at $11.6M, but he only costs $1.6M in dead money if they let him go. Ultimately, I think they find a way to keep him around as his veteran leadership is needed, especially with letting Manning go.
  • Ryan Clady: has already offered to restructure to stay in town. This dude would help the OL tremendously (if healthy). $10.1 vs cap, $1.2M in dead money.
  • Owen Daniels: $4.5M vs cap, $2m in dead money. If Heuerman looks good, Owen could be a cap causality, but he probably sticks due to familiarity with Kubes.
  • Britton Colquitt: @ $4M, Colquitt has the 4th highest punter salary in the league. $750k in dead money if they let him go.
Team needs:

  • Obviously, we have some questions at the QB position. If Elway can re-sign Brock, I’d be more than happy between him and Siemian.
  • The OL needs some major work, especially with Evan Mathis possibly walking. This is the key to getting the whole offense clicking. Schofield has got to either make some major improvements in his game or take a bench. What we saw from him in 2015 in not acceptable. I expect to see some gains from Sambrailio.
  • There are no needs on defense. Not one. Now, some of the guys who are FA’s will need to be replaced, but that’s it. If Ware leaves, Ray will be in his second year, and Barrett has shown he can play, and lets not forget about Anunike, who flashed last pre-season. Broncos have been getting lucky at great production from unheralded MLB’s (Trevathan was a 6th rounder, Marshall was an off the street FA). If these guys walk, they will find a replacement – possibly McCray and Todd Davis, to note some guys currently on the roster. Traditionally, this is not a position Elway has emphasized so I'm not too worried.
Just as SB50 was in John Elways old college town, SB LI is local to Gary Kubiak and Von Millers alma mater, Texas A&M, and Wade Phillips certainly has a lot of history there.

 
The Broncos managed to steal a Super Bowl with a flawed team. Good for them. It takes hard work, character, and good fortune and good timing to get one and there are never any apologies when you do. If they keep their defense intact, or mostly so, and they upgrade from Manning to Osweiler I do not see why they will not be competitive again.

Osweiler can present a wider range of defensive challenges than could the recent iteration of Manning. he is more mobile and has a far better arm. Obviously he does not have the experience or knowledge of Manning, but if he has the reigns all through OTA's and training camp, coupled with the experience he got this year he should be an upgrade.

The O-line was a disgrace. Some of that can be addressed just by guys getting healthy. That said if they let go Manning, Ware, and maybe Talib (a personal foul just waiting to happen)they might be able to yet work out something for Joe Thomas. I think the salary cap issues would work. Thomas, along with Clady returning to health could make that unit go from bottom third to top third instantly. That would reduce sacks against numbers and greatly assist the running game.

Demarcus Ware had a great playoff run. His age and history of back troubles is concerning. the Broncos have some interesting back up L.B. talent that may be ready to blossom, I think they have to let that happen.

I hate to see a punter consume quite so much of the salary cap. That said the Broncos were constantly winning field position swaps in the playoffs due to excellent punting. for a team that wants to play the field position and trust our defense game Colquitt is worth every penny.

I think the 2016 version of the Broncos will be superior to the 2015. Whether that translates to another Super Bowl, who can say, its a competitive league and it takes good fortune to get to the big game, but I see their arrow as pointing up.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Here are the cap situations for each team.  According to this site, the Broncos currently have the 5th least amount of space at around $8.2 million:  http://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space
That's right, but if Manning retires (or is let go), they gain $19M in savings.  That would put them at $26M, roughly middle of the pack. IMO that leaves enough to sign Brock or Malik, probably not both once Von signs his deal.

 
That's right, but if Manning retires (or is let go), they gain $19M in savings.  That would put them at $26M, roughly middle of the pack. IMO that leaves enough to sign Brock or Malik, probably not both once Von signs his deal.
Yeah.  I thought it would be an interesting link.  I would be shocked if Manning somehow stays.  I think he retires.  Would there be a difference in how much they save between him retiring and him being cut and trying to continue his career?

 
Yeah.  I thought it would be an interesting link.  I would be shocked if Manning somehow stays.  I think he retires.  Would there be a difference in how much they save between him retiring and him being cut and trying to continue his career?
AFAIK, it's treated the same.  dead money is dead money.

I have been hearing some speculation that Manning comes back at a reduced salary, in lieu of Osweiler.  Not sure what to think about that.

 
I have been hearing some speculation that Manning comes back at a reduced salary, in lieu of Osweiler.  Not sure what to think about that.


I'll be stunned if that happens. I am shocked that Peyton hasn't announced his retirement yet.  He'll never get a better ending to his career than he just got, and he is smart enough to realize his physical limitations now.  And I have to think that John Elway is smart enough to not commit to Peyton for another season as his starter.   Even if a team like the Browns wants to overpay for Osweiler, overpaying a 40-year old QB who has little left is not the way to try to repeat. 

 
I've heard here and there about Denver negotiating with Malik (turned down 5 years in the $55 million range) and Brock, and obviously they are negotiating with Von and now slapped the exclusive tag on him--I think they'll get a deal done soon. But what worries me is I haven't heard anything about negotiations with Trevathan. Makes me think that Denver either doesn't consider him a priority or thinks a team like the Bears or Raiders will offer him a deal that they can't possibly match (which is very possible especially considering the Fox and Del Rio connections respectively). Shame. With so many stars, I think his impact on this defense has being vastly underplayed. In any case, losing him will leave a hole that I think will be harder to replace than hole that would be left if Malik moves on. Oh well.

 
AFAIK, it's treated the same.  dead money is dead money.

I have been hearing some speculation that Manning comes back at a reduced salary, in lieu of Osweiler.  Not sure what to think about that.
Awful if true. Having sentimental moves is not the way to run a franchise.

Then again they know what they have in brock and if they let him walk that speaks volume too

 
The Broncos are going to re-sign CJ and let Hillman walk, right? They don't have a ton of cap space and this seems like a no-brainier, or am I missing something?

i think CJ showed us in the playoffs just how good he is and would be a nice, affordable solution. No reason to spend any real cap money on bringing in a free agent RB. 

 
Well now that the team has the Manning situation resolved, that gives them some money to play with. 

CJ is a good back, but the problem is he always seems to get dinged on plays. So I will not be surprised to see Denver draft an RB with one of their later picks.

I think Denver restructures Clady and maybe even Ware's deals to free up more money. But I hope they don't overpay Malik. He is a good player, but I am seeing some interesting draft picks that could be had to step in. 

I see Denver's need in FA as O-line and LB help if Danny is left to walk 

 
With Peyton gone, Malik heading to Jax, another $8 million off the table after releasing Vasquez and Daniels, plus the likely restructuring with Demarcus and Clady, they should have enough money to retain Trevathan.  I would think he'll be in the $6-$8 million/year range.  The DE/DT depth in the draft should allow them to find an adequate replacement for Malik, but replacing Trevathan will be a lot more difficult. Looks more and more like they're just going to let him walk without even making an offer which IMO is a mistake.  But then it's now looking like Brock might command something in the $15-$18 million/year range so maybe they just want to ensure they can sign him and have enough for priority one which is inking a long term deal with Von ASAP. Who knows.  

 
Some have mentioned RG3, but given the Kubiak/Shanahan connection, and how bad the RG3/Shanny relationship went, I'd be shocked. 

There is some chatter that the Jets might have trouble keeping Fitzpatrick, so he could always be an option.  

I pray they stay far away from Kaepernick. 

While he showed some good things last year, I don't want them to overpay Osweiler. 

On the flip side, it's inevitable that the defense will come back to earth a little, so you can't expect to win with mediocre QB play for much of the season again, so they can't take the "we can win with any QB" approach.  Elway is too smart to think that anyway. 

 
Malik - gone.

Trevathan - Gone.

Osweiler - Gone.

good luck to these guys, it's been fun! 

Elway sure has his work cut out for him at QB.  no idea what's gonna happen now.

 
Malik - gone.

Trevathan - Gone.

Osweiler - Gone.

good luck to these guys, it's been fun! 

Elway sure has his work cut out for him at QB.  no idea what's gonna happen now.
The plus side is that should net Denver some prime compensatory picks. I'm guessing 2 3rds and a 5th maybe? 

 
And there's chatter that the NFL may begin allowing teams to trade comp picks,  which if it happens would make them even more valuable. 

 
Assuming for the moment that Denver does not match the offer sheet on CJA, who is even left at RB?  Does JThompson move straight to the top of the depth chart?

Feels like Elway got a bit too cocky this offseason and is about to be left holding multiple bags...

 
The plus side is that should net Denver some prime compensatory picks. I'm guessing 2 3rds and a 5th maybe? 
This is part of why I'm glad Elway is holding his ground and not overpaying for these guys. Obviously in a perfect world you'd keep everyone, but as much as I like Malik, Travathan and CJ they are hardly irreplaceable. In fact, they are guys Elway brought in with a 5th and 6th round pick and as an UDFA. 

I'm not crazy about the idea of Kaepernick if that's where the team ends up going, but I wouldn't feel any more or less uncertainty going into the season with him as the starter vs. Brock. 

 
With Peyton gone, Malik heading to Jax, another $8 million off the table after releasing Vasquez and Daniels, plus the likely restructuring with Demarcus and Clady, they should have enough money to retain Trevathan.  I would think he'll be in the $6-$8 million/year range.  The DE/DT depth in the draft should allow them to find an adequate replacement for Malik, but replacing Trevathan will be a lot more difficult. Looks more and more like they're just going to let him walk without even making an offer which IMO is a mistake.  But then it's now looking like Brock might command something in the $15-$18 million/year range so maybe they just want to ensure they can sign him and have enough for priority one which is inking a long term deal with Von ASAP. Who knows.  
Or none of them.  Seems really odd for Denver to clear cap space and let all 3 of them walk. 

 
This is part of why I'm glad Elway is holding his ground and not overpaying for these guys. Obviously in a perfect world you'd keep everyone, but as much as I like Malik, Travathan and CJ they are hardly irreplaceable. In fact, they are guys Elway brought in with a 5th and 6th round pick and as an UDFA. 

I'm not crazy about the idea of Kaepernick if that's where the team ends up going, but I wouldn't feel any more or less uncertainty going into the season with him as the starter vs. Brock. 
Replacing all of those guys won't be as easy as it sounds.  Not a broncos fan but they let a lot of guys get away without much effort to keep them.  No starting QB.  Lost starting rb,  DE,  and lb.  That's a lot

 
I will never understand why they didn't tender C.J. at the second round price for a measly $0.9 million more (2.6 million as opposed to 1.7). It seems they had no intention of keeping him. Strange happenings at Dove Valley.

Maybe they bring in Foster now? Morris? I haven't a clue. 

 
Assuming for the moment that Denver does not match the offer sheet on CJA, who is even left at RB?  Does JThompson move straight to the top of the depth chart?

Feels like Elway got a bit too cocky this offseason and is about to be left holding multiple bags...
Thompson would be at the top, yes (also assuming they have no intention of making an offer to Hillman, a safe assumption I would think). And second would be Kapri Bibbs from the practice squad. Bibbs is a nice cheap speculative buy/add in dynasty leagues. 

 
Or none of them.  Seems really odd for Denver to clear cap space and let all 3 of them walk. 
Yup. I'm perplexed. I'm starting to wonder if they just ####ed up... It happens. I have a hard time believing this is all part of the proverbial plan.  It will certainly be interesting to see what Elway does going forward. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I wonder if Derek Wolfe has any regrets after seeing the contacts signed by Jackson and Vernon? He signed in season for  4 years $36.7 million.... What a steal that turned out to be for Denver. 

 
I'm willing to give Elway the benefit of the doubt, but right now it smells like he messed up this whole off-season.  I thought that he would be able to re-sign either Brock or Malik - well, that turns out to not be the case.  I think Elway underestimated the market for these guys by quite a bit.  For Malik, it's a case of JAX having deep pockets and a need to spend to get to the floor, plus a pretty bad defense and a defensive-minded HC.  For Brock, I really don't think Houston was gonna lose a bidding war, regardless of the cost. From what I've heard, ownership mandated they get a QB now...it makes sense - they were a playoff team that came up short because of QB play.  They are literally a QB away, they may not have time to groom a draft pick.  The only other FA QB available is Fitzpatrick, whom they have already soured on.

So, the moves Elway made to be able to sign one of these guys are now not necessary - I'm talking about cutting Brewer, not tendering CJ as a 2nd rounder, cutting Vasquez and Owen Daniels.

One other thought with the Bronco exodus: there are three reasons why players pick a certian team: (1) home town loyalty (2) money (3) chance to win a championship.  Everyone on the Broncos roster now has (3) checked off.  If they aren't feelin' the home-town love, there is absolutely no reason to not chase those dollars.

 
Here's how I'm seeing the musical chairs game being played:

1. I assume CLE will draft Wentz - no FA would sign there so they have to draft QBoTF.
2. I assume SF will draft Goff - local boy, and they have burned bridges with Kaep

That leaves 3 teams and 3 QB's: DEN, NYJ, LA, and Kaepernick, Fitzpatrick, and Lynch.

I think I'm good either way.

Lynch (and his rookie contract) would be my preference, but it only takes one team to take Lynch from under our noses and leave us in a bad place...Arizona, in particular could take Lynch as a guy to groom under an aging Palmer, and we would be hosed.  Also, not sure if Lynch is capable of being QB1 on opening day.

So, with that in mind, we are stuck between Kaepernick and Fitzpatrick, in a bidding war with the Jets and Rams. 2 players, three teams.

 
I will never understand why they didn't tender C.J. at the second round price for a measly $0.9 million more (2.6 million as opposed to 1.7). It seems they had no intention of keeping him. Strange happenings at Dove Valley.

Maybe they bring in Foster now? Morris? I haven't a clue. 
Maybe they can get Henry at the end of the 1st round?

 
Moleculo, the problem I see with Kap is all of a sudden he has big time value to SF as far as trade-ability. SF will now want a whole lot more than before and his cap hit isnt that bad so they can probably afford to keep him around.

i know it is a small sample size, but I liked what I saw from Trevor in the pre season. He looked like an NFL QB in the pocket. He had a good throwing motion. That one drive in Seattle was pretty impressive including that 40 yard strike to Fowler. I think he is the answer 

 
Moleculo, the problem I see with Kap is all of a sudden he has big time value to SF as far as trade-ability. SF will now want a whole lot more than before and his cap hit isnt that bad so they can probably afford to keep him around.

i know it is a small sample size, but I liked what I saw from Trevor in the pre season. He looked like an NFL QB in the pocket. He had a good throwing motion. That one drive in Seattle was pretty impressive including that 40 yard strike to Fowler. I think he is the answer 
I like Siemian too (gotta be careful with spell-check on that one).  Gotta think though, if he was viewed as a viable starter, they wouldn't have brought in Ponder last season when Manning went down. 

Was Siemian ever #2 on the depth chart last season?

 
I think Siemian was the active backup for every game that Manning was inactive. I would't be shocked to see him given a chance to compete for the starting job in camp.

 
I'm willing to give Elway the benefit of the doubt, but right now it smells like he messed up this whole off-season.  I thought that he would be able to re-sign either Brock or Malik - well, that turns out to not be the case.  I think Elway underestimated the market for these guys by quite a bit.  
In hindsight, I wonder if the Broncos could have made more of an effort to re-sign these guys last summer/last season.  They knew that had Peyton's salary coming off the books, and maybe even Ware's.

And they knew there as going to be a ton of cap room.  The entire NFL knew that there as going to be some big deals, and a bunch of teams with cap room.  

 
In hindsight, I wonder if the Broncos could have made more of an effort to re-sign these guys last summer/last season.  They knew that had Peyton's salary coming off the books, and maybe even Ware's.

And they knew there as going to be a ton of cap room.  The entire NFL knew that there as going to be some big deals, and a bunch of teams with cap room.  
I've wondered about this as well. 

 
I think the Broncos probably had discussions with all of them. They got the deal done with Wolfe and Harris the year before in season. 

The bottom line is I think Jackson, Trevathan, and Anderson were viewed as system guys who could be replaced for much less than they would get on the market. Osweiler is a little different but he was ridiculously overpaid by Houston. 

 
So I really am a little bit concerned about Wolfe. Does he look at what Jackson and Vernon got, realize he made a mistake, turn sour and ask to renegotiate his contract before he's even played one snap on said contract?Or is he that rare unique cat, like Chris Harris, who is perfectly happy to be massively underpaid as long as he's on a team,  in a city that he loves and there is nowhere else in the world he'd rather be? I'm leaning toward the latter and I'm hoping I'm right because I love Wolfe and obviously I love Harris and those are the kinds of guys that Elway wants to have around.

 
I think A Morris is Denver's new "lead" back. From one zone blocking team to

another. Elway was trying to pinch pennies with CJ and got burned.

Sanchez is the "use in case of emergency" QB.

 
I love how Elway is able to figure out what he wants to do and pull the trigger to make things happen.  He surveyed the field of available QB's (Kaepernick, Osweiler, Fitzpatrick, Sanchez, Bradford, Hoyer, Lynch, RGIII), figured out how to maximize value, and made and appropriate deal to get his guy.  He didn't panic, he didn't over pay, he didn't mortgage the future.  As much flack as he has gotten for letting Osweiler walk and leaving the franchise in Sanchez's hands, I think he managed this situation fantastically.  Instead of paying Osweiler $18m/year for four years, he will have Lynch at ~$2M for 4 years with an optional 5th, plus a veteran QB who has won playoff games for $4m to hold the fort down.

 
I know I'm homering pretty hard, but I loved this draft.  I'm not really a draftnik, but all of these spots fill a position of need.  I can see 6 starters by 2017, plus a FB.  All of these guys seem to be high upside, workout warriors, team captains.  I believe that Elways principle is to draft guys on offense he would want to play with and on defense guys he would not want to play against.  He brings a players eye to the draft room that I think is missing with a lot of other teams.

1.27 Paxton Lynch QB: If this is a hit and Lynch becomes a QBotF, this could go down as a great draft.  Lynch seems to me to be full of moxie, has a strong arm, mobile.  Provided he can be comfortable taking snaps from under center and learning the offense, he has a chance to be great.

2.64 Adam Gotsis DT: sounds to be a Derek Wolfe clone.  raw, unpolished, workout warrior.  Only played American football for a few years.  

3.99 Justin Simmons FS: rangy, smart, team captain FS who can excel on ST.  sounds to me to be David Brutons replacement, although probably better off the bat (Bruton wasn't all that good on the field for his first few years, took a lot of hard work to develop into more than a ST guy.)  I don't expect him to crack the line-up any time soon, but the FS position isn't exactly locked down right now.  Can he beat out Darian Stewart?  I think the answer is eventually.  

4.137 Devontae Booker RB: There are rumors Elway considered Booker at 1.31.  I think that's BS because he would have drafted him in the second if true.  Anyways, seems to fit the mold of a ZBS back.  Only knock is he has some age on him.  You know what, IMO you should draft guys based on the next 4 years and don't worry about getting into the second contract.  Booker will be 28 by the time his contract is up and who knows what happens by then.

5.145 Connor McGovern OG: another workout warrior.  Squats 700 lbs or so.  From the sounds of it, he struggles in space but is fine in a phone booth.  I'm not saying he will be better than Evan Mathis - at least right away - but I think he can be fine.  IMO the Bronco OL last season were simply too small and got pushed around a lot.  This dude should be able to help.

6.177Andy Janovich FB: This move is interesting.  Broncos had a few FB's on the roster last year entering camp and had none within a few games - they weren't cutting it.  I believe Kubiak wants back into the pure ZBS - I-formation running game and Broncos need a FB to make that work.

6.220 Will Parks S: I don't know much about this kid.  Seems to be an undersized thumper type safety.  Let's call him a special teams guy with potential to make the squad as a back-up.

7.229 Riley Dixon P: a brilliant pick.  Colquitt is on the books for $3.5m/year.  If the Broncos can get anywhere near his production with a guy being paid as a 7th rounder, I'll call it a bargain. The book on Dixon is he is a great directional kicker and gets a lot of hang-time, but seems to lack depth.  Well, maybe those things can be improved on with an NFL training regime and instruction.

So yeah - I can most definitely see the top 5 picks starting in 2017, which is outstanding.  Plus two specialists (FB and P).  only down side - I don't really see any of these guys (outside the FB and ST) contributing much in 2016.

 
I am very happy wth this draft as well. This team still has most of the pieces in place and I see no reason why they can't at least take another AFC West title and then from there who knows?? 

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top