Official 2019 FBG Subscriber Contest (1 Viewer)

[BassNBrew]

You know what I meant. It works both ways. If Montgomery does well and Carson doesn’t, you’re at a significant advantage because a lot of people are tanking and a less amount are enjoying the Montgomery production. I’ll remember to spell it all out next time. 

Except it doesn't work that way.  Doesn't matter if Montgomery dominates Carson 75% of the weeks if you get swapped and eliminated one of the 25% of the weeks Carson goes into beast mode.

 

[IndyCasey]

Long time reader, first time poster. I’d appreciate any feedback you might have.

QB - Jameis Winston - TB/7 - $13
QB - Lamar Jackson - BAL/8 - $12
QB - Sam Darnold - NYJ/4 - $9

Was looking for QBs with upside and wanted to stack my QBs with my WRs/TEs where possible. I took Winston after many of my lineup variations kept including Godwin and Howard. I’m looking for second year improvement from Darnold and stacking with Crowder and Hockenson. Had Brady but found an extra dollar and couldn’t resist Jackson’s upside.

RB - Dalvin Cook - MIN/12 - $24
RB - Devonta Freeman - ATL/9 - $23
RB - Chris Carson - SEA/11 - $18
RB - Duke Johnson - HOU/10 - $9
RB - Darwin Thompson - KC/12 - $5

A couple of injury risks with Cook and Freeman but if they stay healthy they both could be RB1s…and it appears you need to take risks in this contest. Had Chubb for the longest time but I was concerned his usage would slip once Hunt comes back, something I don’t want to worry about in the later weeks of the contest. Carson, Johnson and Thompson for the same reasons as everyone else. Still kicking around the idea of taking Pollard over Thompson and thus avoid the bye week conflict with Cook.

WR - Chris Godwin - TB/7 - $22
WR - Tyler Lockett - SEA/11 - $19
WR - Curtis Samuel - CAR/7 - $12
WR - Marquez Valdes-Scantling - GB/11 - $11
WR - Jamison Crowder - NYJ/4 - $11
WR - Josh Gordon - NE/10 - $6

Love the upside of Godwin and Lockett and both seem to have pretty high floors. Samuel could be a WR1B in Carolina. MVS has a high ceiling though I’m a little concerned with him having the same bye week as Locket. Crowder has been looking good in pre-season and he stacks with Darnold.

TE - O.J. Howard - TB/7 - $18
TE - Chris Herndon - NYJ/4 - $8
TE - Darren Waller - OAK/6 - $8

Howard could join the elite TE ranks at a good price. Though Herndon is suspended for four games I’m hoping all the buzz on Waller comes to fruition and he covers Herdon’s absence.

PK - Dan Bailey - MIN/12 - $4
PK - Brandon McManus - DEN/10 - $4
PK - Greg Joseph - CLE/7 - $3

Kickers are kickers.

TD - New England Patriots - NE/10 - $6
TD - Kansas City Chiefs - KC/12 - $5

The first half of the Patriots schedule is unbelievably easy. Figure the Chiefs will be in a lot of high scoring games which increases the chance of turnovers.

 

[TheWinz]

Except it doesn't work that way.  Doesn't matter if Montgomery dominates Carson 75% of the weeks if you get swapped and eliminated one of the 25% of the weeks Carson goes into beast mode.

The overall point of this whole discussion was that if a single player is very common and that player does well, you are behind the 8-ball without him.  This exact scenario happened last year with Mahomes in week 11, when he put up 60.  He was so common going into week 11, his monster score bumped the cutoff an ungodly amount.  I will put it in raw numbers that should jump out...

- He was owned by 4243 at the start of the contest.  That was 28% of all entries.  When we cut down to 1000 in week 11, 69% of the teams left rostered Mahomes.  When we cut down to 250 in week 13, 81% of the teams left rostered Mahomes.

Even if very common players sucked balls, their survival rates stayed near the average.  Here is a very telling stat from last year - if you had rostered Freeman ($16), Goodwin ($13), and Cole ($7), all of which sucked and were very common, you would've wasted $36 and still had a higher survival rate than the average.

 

[Elevencents]

Except it doesn't work that way.  Doesn't matter if Montgomery dominates Carson 75% of the weeks if you get swapped and eliminated one of the 25% of the weeks Carson goes into beast mode.

Yes I get it. One quarter, one half, one game or one game. I never specified a period of time. Sorry it was not clear. 

 

[Elevencents]

The overall point of this whole discussion was that if a single player is very common and that player does well, you are behind the 8-ball without him.  This exact scenario happened last year with Mahomes in week 11, when he put up 60.  He was so common going into week 11, his monster score bumped the cutoff an ungodly amount.  I will put it in raw numbers that should jump out...

- He was owned by 4243 at the start of the contest.  That was 28% of all entries.  When we cut down to 1000 in week 11, 69% of the teams left rostered Mahomes.  When we cut down to 250 in week 13, 81% of the teams left rostered Mahomes.

Even if very common players sucked balls, their survival rates stayed near the average.  Here is a very telling stat from last year - if you had rostered Freeman ($16), Goodwin ($13), and Cole ($7), all of which sucked and were very common, you would've wasted $36 and still had a higher survival rate than the average.

I’m glad someone understood what I was saying. Thank you for clarifying. 

 

[TheWinz]

QB - Jameis Winston - TB/7 - $13
RB - Duke Johnson - HOU/10 - $9
WR - Josh Gordon - NE/10 - $6
TE - Travis Kelce - KC/12 - $29
TD - New York Jets - NYJ/4 - $3

We are getting there - committed to $60 so far.  Haven't decided if I am putting Duke in my "7 player circle of trust" yet, but he is certainly going to be on my roster.

 

[srnohav]

I cant believe DT is not even an option, that is a pretty big name to be excluded and he plays for the Patriots.  C'mon

 

[rockaction]

Anyone with thoughts about this team?

QB - Jameis Winston - 13
QB - Philip Rivers - 12
QB - Josh Rosen - 4
RB - Nick Chubb - 25
RB - Kerryon Johnson - 23
RB - Josh Jacobs - 20
RB - Miles Sanders - 15
RB - Duke Johnson - 9
WR - Chris Godwin - 22
WR - Calvin Ridley - 20
WR - Tyler Lockett - 19
WR - Marquez Valdes-Scantling - 11
WR - Josh Gordon - 6
TE - T.J. Hockenson - 10
TE - Chris Herndon - 8
TE - Darren Waller - 8
PK - Harrison Butker - 6
PK - Matt Gay - 3
PK - Austin Seibert - 3
TD - Cleveland Browns - 6
TD - Carolina Panthers - 4
TD - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 3

 

[TheWinz]

Anyone with thoughts about this team?

QB - Jameis Winston - 13
QB - Philip Rivers - 12
QB - Josh Rosen - 4

A Philip Rivers sighting!  Even with his least attempts in 10 years, he still put up 4300/32.  Missed only 1 game in 13 years.  You get nada for rushing, but I don't see a scenario where he doesn't reach 4k and high 20's+ for TD's.  Winston is my favorite mid-priced QB, and has a very good shot at blowing away his price.  For a $4 QB as your QB3, IMO the choice is either Jones or Rosen.  Rosen may start earlier in the season, but I prefer Jones once he does get the start.

RB - Nick Chubb - 25
RB - Kerryon Johnson - 23
RB - Josh Jacobs - 20
RB - Miles Sanders - 15
RB - Duke Johnson - 9

Getting your top 3's byes out of the way before the cuts get tougher is always a good thing.  This group is strong enough to give you plenty of flex scores.  Duke will be the most owned RB in the contest, no doubt in my mind about that.

WR - Chris Godwin - 22
WR - Calvin Ridley - 20
WR - Tyler Lockett - 19
WR - Marquez Valdes-Scantling - 11
WR - Josh Gordon - 6

I think Godwin and Lockett will be your consistency guys.  Ridley is the real deal opposite Julio.  Flex score options from this group too.

TE - T.J. Hockenson - 10
TE - Chris Herndon - 8
TE - Darren Waller - 8

Not a fan of your choices, but surely a fan of their early byes.  Not a strong group, but you grabbed 3 and only need 1 each week.

PK - Harrison Butker - 6
PK - Matt Gay - 3
PK - Austin Seibert - 3

Consider swapping either Gay or Seibert - same bye

TD - Cleveland Browns - 6
TD - Carolina Panthers - 4
TD - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 3

All 3 of your D's are on bye week 7 - a must fix

Overall, a good team, with a nice bye distribution from your RB/WR/TE group.

 

[rockaction]

Overall, a good team, with a nice bye distribution from your RB/WR/TE group.

Thanks so much for the time and for pointing out the D/ST and K bye issues. I gently disagree about the TEs, but thanks for the input. It's probably the position I've switched out most. 

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

I should probably start working on my entry soon.

 

[TheWinz]

I should probably start working on my entry soon.

Luck retired

 

[matuski]

I cant believe DT is not even an option, that is a pretty big name to be excluded and he plays for the Patriots.  C'mon

I preferred the setup last yer, and I have always felt they should wait a little longer to release the contest.

They cant include everyone, and honestly DT would fall behind a dozen or more players best case scenario.

Regardless.. we all have the same playing field.

 

[barackdhouse]

Anyone with thoughts about this team?

QB - Jameis Winston - 13
QB - Philip Rivers - 12
QB - Josh Rosen - 4
RB - Nick Chubb - 25
RB - Kerryon Johnson - 23
RB - Josh Jacobs - 20
RB - Miles Sanders - 15
RB - Duke Johnson - 9
WR - Chris Godwin - 22
WR - Calvin Ridley - 20
WR - Tyler Lockett - 19
WR - Marquez Valdes-Scantling - 11
WR - Josh Gordon - 6
TE - T.J. Hockenson - 10
TE - Chris Herndon - 8
TE - Darren Waller - 8
PK - Harrison Butker - 6
PK - Matt Gay - 3
PK - Austin Seibert - 3
TD - Cleveland Browns - 6
TD - Carolina Panthers - 4
TD - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 3

I'm not a Ridley guy but everyone has their preferences. I would take the 24 highlighted along with maybe one K or one D to find more depth at WR. I know it's good to roll three deep in those categories, along with QB, but I don't think Rosen makes it into a boxscore for you over your other two. And for K and D I would rather roll three defenses than three kickers. But mainly I just think you need more WRs. 

 

[barackdhouse]

Luck retired

Your phones ringing, Dude.

 

[rockaction]

I'm not a Ridley guy but everyone has their preferences. I would take the 24 highlighted along with maybe one K or one D to find more depth at WR. I know it's good to roll three deep in those categories, along with QB, but I don't think Rosen makes it into a boxscore for you over your other two. And for K and D I would rather roll three defenses than three kickers. But mainly I just think you need more WRs. 

Thanks. Definitely noted and considered. I'm thinking seriously about rolling with the three defenses and two kickers, subsequently using that money to shore up the receivers.  

 

[barackdhouse]

Thanks. Definitely noted and considered. I'm thinking seriously about rolling with the three defenses and two kickers, subsequently using that money to shore up the receivers.  

I think my success in this contest has been inversely proportional to how much time I spend trying to get it right. But I've never made it past week 10 so what do I know.

 

[rockaction]

I think my success in this contest has been inversely proportional to how much time I spend trying to get it right. But I've never made it past week 10 so what do I know.

Same here, actually. Never really made it that far. Got some good advice last year at the end and tried to incorporate it into a better squad. 

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

McKinnon to IR.  What will the Coleman / Breida split be?

 

[barackdhouse]

McKinnon to IR.  What will the Coleman / Breida split be?

I think it's going to be 50/50 until Breida establishes himself as far superior. Then 60/40 or 65/35. If one of them gets hurt watch out for Mostert, though. I stashing him where I can.

 

[Interseptopus]

cant wait to see what bargains there are after cuts! 

 

[rockaction]

cant wait to see what bargains there are after cuts! 

Yup. Can't believe what you can get Duke Johnson and Breida for now. 

 

[Steeler]

What do you think of this crazy idea for QBs?

QB - Carson Wentz - 19
QB - Eli Manning - 6
QB - Daniel Jones - 4

Wentz needs no explanation.  But locking up the NYG QB situation for 10 is intriguing.  Having both NYG QBs is a little safer than having a "naked" Jones as your third QB (at least that what I'm exploring with this idea).  Basically this "guarantees" you will have a 2nd QB all year except for the NYG bye week.  If Eli plays lights out and Jones never sees the field you are golden.  If Eli sucks (or gets hurt) Jones steps in and you don't skip a beat.  I guess the main thing this guards against is the scenario where your QB1 is on bye, your QB2 is hurt, but Jones hasn't taken over for Eli yet.  In that scenario you get a zero.

I'm not sure if I like it - it seems equally brilliant and crazy at the same time 

 

[rockaction]

Interesting. If somebody told me they wanted shares of a locked-down NY Giants QB position a month ago, I'd have looked at them a little funny. 

 

[TheWinz]

What do you think of this crazy idea for QBs?

QB - Carson Wentz - 19
QB - Eli Manning - 6
QB - Daniel Jones - 4

Wentz needs no explanation.  But locking up the NYG QB situation for 10 is intriguing.  Having both NYG QBs is a little safer than having a "naked" Jones as your third QB (at least that what I'm exploring with this idea).  Basically this "guarantees" you will have a 2nd QB all year except for the NYG bye week.  If Eli plays lights out and Jones never sees the field you are golden.  If Eli sucks (or gets hurt) Jones steps in and you don't skip a beat.  I guess the main thing this guards against is the scenario where your QB1 is on bye, your QB2 is hurt, but Jones hasn't taken over for Eli yet.  In that scenario you get a zero.

I'm not sure if I like it - it seems equally brilliant and crazy at the same time 

The later the bye for the non-Giants QB, the less need you have for Eli.  As for Wentz, do you really think Eli will hold the gig until week 10?

 

[TheWinz]

McKinnon to IR.  What will the Coleman / Breida split be?

It's not final yet, but very much sounds like it

 

[Grid71]

Long time reader, first time poster. I’d appreciate any feedback you might have.

QB - Jameis Winston - TB/7 - $13
QB - Lamar Jackson - BAL/8 - $12
QB - Sam Darnold - NYJ/4 - $9

Was looking for QBs with upside and wanted to stack my QBs with my WRs/TEs where possible. I took Winston after many of my lineup variations kept including Godwin and Howard. I’m looking for second year improvement from Darnold and stacking with Crowder and Hockenson. Had Brady but found an extra dollar and couldn’t resist Jackson’s upside.

RB - Dalvin Cook - MIN/12 - $24
RB - Devonta Freeman - ATL/9 - $23
RB - Chris Carson - SEA/11 - $18
RB - Duke Johnson - HOU/10 - $9
RB - Darwin Thompson - KC/12 - $5

A couple of injury risks with Cook and Freeman but if they stay healthy they both could be RB1s…and it appears you need to take risks in this contest. Had Chubb for the longest time but I was concerned his usage would slip once Hunt comes back, something I don’t want to worry about in the later weeks of the contest. Carson, Johnson and Thompson for the same reasons as everyone else. Still kicking around the idea of taking Pollard over Thompson and thus avoid the bye week conflict with Cook.

WR - Chris Godwin - TB/7 - $22
WR - Tyler Lockett - SEA/11 - $19
WR - Curtis Samuel - CAR/7 - $12
WR - Marquez Valdes-Scantling - GB/11 - $11
WR - Jamison Crowder - NYJ/4 - $11
WR - Josh Gordon - NE/10 - $6

Love the upside of Godwin and Lockett and both seem to have pretty high floors. Samuel could be a WR1B in Carolina. MVS has a high ceiling though I’m a little concerned with him having the same bye week as Locket. Crowder has been looking good in pre-season and he stacks with Darnold.

TE - O.J. Howard - TB/7 - $18
TE - Chris Herndon - NYJ/4 - $8
TE - Darren Waller - OAK/6 - $8

Howard could join the elite TE ranks at a good price. Though Herndon is suspended for four games I’m hoping all the buzz on Waller comes to fruition and he covers Herdon’s absence.

PK - Dan Bailey - MIN/12 - $4
PK - Brandon McManus - DEN/10 - $4
PK - Greg Joseph - CLE/7 - $3

Kickers are kickers.

TD - New England Patriots - NE/10 - $6
TD - Kansas City Chiefs - KC/12 - $5

The first half of the Patriots schedule is unbelievably easy. Figure the Chiefs will be in a lot of high scoring games which increases the chance of turnovers.

Well scripted first post. Your critique of this roster is spot on. 

There has been some great analysis regarding the rostering of 3 cheap D being greater than 2 expensive D. Consider it.  

Risk tolerance is a fun one.  Your top 2 RB can put up points with anyone. When both are healthy, you have an edge. That said, it’ll cut deep if you lose them for a stretch. Pollard might look attractive now but he will be a non factor once Zeke returns. I’ll keep Darwin’s split in a high octane offense all day over Pollard. 

Receiver group appears to have nice value. 

Personal preference I’m not a fan of the TE group but I don’t have a great argument to change your mind. Has potential. 

Good team and good Luck to you. 

 

[joey]

Ok, with some recent cut news (McCoy in particular) and other pre-season hype/trends/foolish dreams, I’ve done tweak #47, went from 18 player mostly-stud roster to a new 20 player roster

QB - Jared Goff - LAR/9 - $14
QB - Mitchell Trubisky - CHI/6 - $12
RB - Alvin Kamara - NO/9 - $33
RB - Chris Carson - SEA/11 - $18
RB - Duke Johnson - HOU/10 - $9
RB - Matt Breida - SF/4 - $9
RB - Devin Singletary - BUF/6 - $8
WR - JuJu Smith-Schuster - PIT/7 - $30
WR - Adam Thielen - MIN/12 - $24
WR - Tyler Lockett - SEA/11 - $19
WR - Curtis Samuel - CAR/7 - $12
WR - J.J. Arcega-Whiteside - PHI/10 - $6
WR - Josh Gordon - NE/10 - $6
TE - Evan Engram - NYG/11 - $18
TE - Mark Andrews - BAL/8 - $9
TE - Darren Waller - OAK/6 - $8
PK - Ryan Succop - TEN/11 - $4
PK - Daniel Carlson - OAK/6 - $3
TD - Detroit Lions - DET/5 - $4
TD - Carolina Panthers - CAR/7 - $4

 

[Interseptopus]

do you drop Duke now with hyde?

 

[rockaction]

do you drop Duke now with hyde?

I've got Duke and I'm swapping him out for Breida. Nine bucks for nine bucks. Easy peasy.

 

[Interseptopus]

I've got Duke and I'm swapping him out for Breida. Nine bucks for nine bucks. Easy peasy.

I've considered this as well, but duke is a pass catching vack and Brieda still has Coleman to deal with 

 

[rockaction]

I've considered this as well, but duke is a pass catching vack and Brieda still has Coleman to deal with 

Oh, it's not perfect in the least, but that's what I'm going to do for now. We still have a few days to really consider other avenues. 

 

[Kujjie]

Few changes since my original entry, but I think I like this one a little more.

QB - Matt Ryan - ATL/9 - $20
QB - Lamar Jackson - BAL/8 - $12

$32 spent (target budget, 35). Same QB's as before. Lamar Jackson looks to have Vick-type upside, like his potential more than anyone around that price point. Ryan has been the model of a healthy QB, 13 indoor games on the schedule, I like the playoff schedule, and an offense that should be one of the best this year. These two were the first guys I locked in on, and they haven't left my roster since.

RB - James Conner - PIT/7 - $29
RB - Leonard Fournette - JAX/10 - $24
RB - Matt Breida - SF/4 - $9
RB - Darwin Thompson - KC/12 - $5
RB - Tony Pollard - DAL/8 - $4

$71 spent (target budget, 80). RB's have changed a little bit. Originally rolled with Kamara, but that feels like too much risk on week 9 with Atlanta also on bye. Swap out for a couple other top-10 candidates, and some of the more popular cheap breakout options. Feels a little top-heavy, but with potential with the right breaks.

WR - Davante Adams - GB/11 - $33
WR - Julio Jones - ATL/9 - $32
WR - Curtis Samuel - CAR/7 - $12
WR - Michael Gallup - DAL/8 - $10
WR - Josh Gordon - NE/10 - $6

$93 spent (target budget, 80). Other major change since original entry, which was a little more "shotgun, hope for big weeks".  Keeping Julio, love Atlanta the schedule, and a chance to stack with Ryan. Solid floor, and #1 upside if this is the year the TD totals finally shoot up. Adams gives another stud, and provides both a great weekly floor and significant weekly upside.  Rolling the dice with a trio that all feel a little boom or bust, but in this format a few solid flex weeks may be all that's required.

TE - Travis Kelce - KC/12 - $29
TE - Mark Andrews - BAL/8 - $9

$38 spent (target budget, 35). Same as before. KC should be great, want a piece of the offense, and Kelce fits great with the TE premium scoring. Andrews so I have a stacking possibility with Lamar, and seems like a breakout candidate.

PK - Matt Prater - DET/5 - $4
PK - Zane Gonzalez - ARI/12 - $3
PK - Austin Seibert - CLE/7 - $3

$10 spend (target budget, 10). Three guys that are reasonably cheap, on reasonable offenses, and hopefully keep their jobs.

TD - San Francisco 49ers - SF/4 - $3
TD - New York Jets - NYJ/4 - $3

$6 spent (target budget, 10) I'd love to find another 3-4 dollars and roster another, but if I have to only roll with the minimum, this seems ok.

 

[-OZ-]

I've got Duke and I'm swapping him out for Breida. Nine bucks for nine bucks. Easy peasy.

I cut him for Singletary, probably a mistake but I wanted another dollar.

 

[rockaction]

I cut him for Singletary, probably a mistake but I wanted another dollar.

Precious a dollar is indeed

 

[-OZ-]

Current iteration, more prioritizing bye weeks than every player I like

QB - Jared Goff - LAR/9 - $14
QB - Dak Prescott - DAL/8 - $12

Haven't changed these two in a while

RB - Nick Chubb - CLE/7 - $25
RB - Chris Carson - SEA/11 - $18
RB - Miles Sanders - PHI/10 - $15
RB - Devin Singletary - BUF/6 - $8
RB - Darwin Thompson - KC/12 - $5

Byes line up

WR - Keenan Allen - LAC/12 - $25
WR - Cooper Kupp - LAR/9 - $20
WR - Robby Anderson - NYJ/4 - $17
WR - Michael Gallup - DAL/8 - $10
WR - Josh Gordon - NE/10 - $6

Byes again 

TE - Travis Kelce - KC/12 - $29
TE - O.J. Howard - TB/7 - $18
TE - Chris Herndon - NYJ/4 - $8

PK - Mason Crosby - GB/11 - $5
PK - Randy Bullock - CIN/9 - $3
PK - Matt Gay - TB/7 - $3

TD - Houston Texans - HOU/10 - $6
TD - New York Jets - NYJ/4 - $

 Not real sure about Allen and Kelce having the same late bye.

 

[rockaction]

Current iteration, more prioritizing bye weeks than every player I like

QB - Jared Goff - LAR/9 - $14
QB - Dak Prescott - DAL/8 - $12

Right amount at QB, I don't like the players (that's personal pref)

Haven't changed these two in a while

I'd like these RBs more stud-heavy, but...okay
RB - Nick Chubb - CLE/7 - $25
RB - Chris Carson - SEA/11 - $18
RB - Miles Sanders - PHI/10 - $15
RB - Devin Singletary - BUF/6 - $8
RB - Darwin Thompson - KC/12 - $5

Byes line up

These guys all get banged up easily and three are coming off of recent injuries. All of them are slight besides Gordon, who is a major susp risk

WR - Keenan Allen - LAC/12 - $25
WR - Cooper Kupp - LAR/9 - $20
WR - Robby Anderson - NYJ/4 - $17
WR - Michael Gallup - DAL/8 - $10
WR - Josh Gordon - NE/10 - $6

Byes again 

This is a ton of money in TEs, and I'm not sold on Howard this year

TE - Travis Kelce - KC/12 - $29
TE - O.J. Howard - TB/7 - $18
TE - Chris Herndon - NYJ/4 - $8

PK - Mason Crosby - GB/11 - $5
PK - Randy Bullock - CIN/9 - $3
PK - Matt Gay - TB/7 - $3

TD - Houston Texans - HOU/10 - $6
TD - New York Jets - NYJ/4 - $

 Not real sure about Allen and Kelce having the same late bye.

My thoughts are in bold. Excuse my terseness, but I just wanted to jot some notes.

 

[Interseptopus]

QB - Aaron Rodgers - GB/11 - $21
QB - Lamar Jackson - BAL/8 - $12
QB - Dwayne Haskins - WAS/10 - $6
QB - Daniel Jones - NYG/11 - $4
RB - David Montgomery - CHI/6 - $18
RB - Derrius Guice - WAS/10 - $17
RB - Duke Johnson - HOU/10 - $9
RB - Justin Jackson - LAC/12 - $9
RB - Justice Hill - BAL/8 - $9
RB - Matt Breida - SF/4 - $9
RB - Devin Singletary - BUF/6 - $8
RB - Darwin Thompson - KC/12 - $5
WR - Marquez Valdes-Scantling - GB/11 - $11
WR - D.K. Metcalf - SEA/11 - $11
WR - Parris Campbell - IND/6 - $11
WR - Albert Wilson - MIA/5 - $9
WR - Andy Isabella - ARI/12 - $6
WR - J.J. Arcega-Whiteside - PHI/10 - $6
WR - Trey Quinn - WAS/10 - $6
WR - Miles Boykin - BAL/8 - $6
WR - D.J. Chark - JAX/10 - $5
TE - T.J. Hockenson - DET/5 - $10
TE - Mark Andrews - BAL/8 - $9
TE - Chris Herndon - NYJ/4 - $8
TE - Darren Waller - OAK/6 - $8
PK - Matt Prater - DET/5 - $4
PK - Randy Bullock - CIN/9 - $3
PK - Matt Gay - TB/7 - $3
TD - Detroit Lions - DET/5 - $4
TD - New York Jets - NYJ/4 - $3

 

[joey]

QB - Aaron Rodgers - GB/11 - $21
QB - Lamar Jackson - BAL/8 - $12
QB - Dwayne Haskins - WAS/10 - $6
QB - Daniel Jones - NYG/11 - $4
RB - David Montgomery - CHI/6 - $18
RB - Derrius Guice - WAS/10 - $17
RB - Duke Johnson - HOU/10 - $9
RB - Justin Jackson - LAC/12 - $9
RB - Justice Hill - BAL/8 - $9
RB - Matt Breida - SF/4 - $9
RB - Devin Singletary - BUF/6 - $8
RB - Darwin Thompson - KC/12 - $5
WR - Marquez Valdes-Scantling - GB/11 - $11
WR - D.K. Metcalf - SEA/11 - $11
WR - Parris Campbell - IND/6 - $11
WR - Albert Wilson - MIA/5 - $9
WR - Andy Isabella - ARI/12 - $6
WR - J.J. Arcega-Whiteside - PHI/10 - $6
WR - Trey Quinn - WAS/10 - $6
WR - Miles Boykin - BAL/8 - $6
WR - D.J. Chark - JAX/10 - $5
TE - T.J. Hockenson - DET/5 - $10
TE - Mark Andrews - BAL/8 - $9
TE - Chris Herndon - NYJ/4 - $8
TE - Darren Waller - OAK/6 - $8
PK - Matt Prater - DET/5 - $4
PK - Randy Bullock - CIN/9 - $3
PK - Matt Gay - TB/7 - $3
TD - Detroit Lions - DET/5 - $4
TD - New York Jets - NYJ/4 - $3

I couldn’t get myself to do a stud-less line up like this, but you certainly have strength in numbers on your side. Like the moxy. 

 

[matuski]

QB - Aaron Rodgers - GB/11 - $21
QB - Lamar Jackson - BAL/8 - $12
QB - Dwayne Haskins - WAS/10 - $6
QB - Daniel Jones - NYG/11 - $4
RB - David Montgomery - CHI/6 - $18
RB - Derrius Guice - WAS/10 - $17
RB - Duke Johnson - HOU/10 - $9
RB - Justin Jackson - LAC/12 - $9
RB - Justice Hill - BAL/8 - $9
RB - Matt Breida - SF/4 - $9
RB - Devin Singletary - BUF/6 - $8
RB - Darwin Thompson - KC/12 - $5
WR - Marquez Valdes-Scantling - GB/11 - $11
WR - D.K. Metcalf - SEA/11 - $11
WR - Parris Campbell - IND/6 - $11
WR - Albert Wilson - MIA/5 - $9
WR - Andy Isabella - ARI/12 - $6
WR - J.J. Arcega-Whiteside - PHI/10 - $6
WR - Trey Quinn - WAS/10 - $6
WR - Miles Boykin - BAL/8 - $6
WR - D.J. Chark - JAX/10 - $5
TE - T.J. Hockenson - DET/5 - $10
TE - Mark Andrews - BAL/8 - $9
TE - Chris Herndon - NYJ/4 - $8
TE - Darren Waller - OAK/6 - $8
PK - Matt Prater - DET/5 - $4
PK - Randy Bullock - CIN/9 - $3
PK - Matt Gay - TB/7 - $3
TD - Detroit Lions - DET/5 - $4
TD - New York Jets - NYJ/4 - $3

Just a lo of wasted dollars.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

QB - Aaron Rodgers - GB/11 - $21
QB - Lamar Jackson - BAL/8 - $12

RB - David Montgomery - CHI/6 - $18
RB - Duke Johnson - HOU/10 - $9
RB - Matt Breida - SF/4 - $9
RB - Devin Singletary - BUF/6 - $8
RB - Darwin Thompson - KC/12 - $5

WR - Marquez Valdes-Scantling - GB/11 - $11

TE - Mark Andrews - BAL/8 - $9
TE - Chris Herndon - NYJ/4 - $8
TE - Darren Waller - OAK/6 - $8

PK - Matt Prater - DET/5 - $4
PK - Randy Bullock - CIN/9 - $3
PK - Matt Gay - TB/7 - $3
TD - Detroit Lions - DET/5 - $4
TD - New York Jets - NYJ/4 - $3

These ones are ok to keep

 

[TwinTurbo]

The overall point of this whole discussion was that if a single player is very common and that player does well, you are behind the 8-ball without him.  This exact scenario happened last year with Mahomes in week 11, when he put up 60.  He was so common going into week 11, his monster score bumped the cutoff an ungodly amount.  I will put it in raw numbers that should jump out...

- He was owned by 4243 at the start of the contest.  That was 28% of all entries.  When we cut down to 1000 in week 11, 69% of the teams left rostered Mahomes.  When we cut down to 250 in week 13, 81% of the teams left rostered Mahomes.

Even if very common players sucked balls, their survival rates stayed near the average.  Here is a very telling stat from last year - if you had rostered Freeman ($16), Goodwin ($13), and Cole ($7), all of which sucked and were very common, you would've wasted $36 and still had a higher survival rate than the average.

Yeah I was one of the teams that got cut without Mahomes. I had no Chiefs or Rams last year. 

 

[Interseptopus]

suddenly the two most popular RBs are far less attractive 

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

suddenly the two most popular RBs are far less attractive 

Duke and Thompson or Duke and Williams?  I think the two most popular are Duke and Carson fwiw.

 

[TheWinz]

suddenly the two most popular RBs are far less attractive 

If you are referring to Duke as one of them, I think the Hyde signing is a blessing.  He still gets my vote as the most owned.  While Darwin took a hit, it made Singletary a top choice.  Other single digit $$ RB's I like are Breida & Brown 

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Old Guard Vs New Guard TEs:

We're supposed to believe that Walker, Olsen, Witten and Eifert are done, and Hockenson, Fant, Andrews, Waller and Herndon are the better plays.

Is anyone else struggling with this?

Andrews has appeared on some of my 67,000 roster iterations, and Herndon on a couple, but that's about it.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

If you are referring to Duke as one of them, I think the Hyde signing is a blessing.  He still gets my vote as the most owned.  While Darwin took a hit, it made Singletary a top choice.  Other single digit $$ RB's I like are Breida & Brown 

You don't think Brown gives way to Henderson?

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Duke and Thompson or Duke and Williams?  I think the two most popular are Duke and Carson fwiw.

Not to mention Chubby.

 

[TheWinz]

You don't think Brown gives way to Henderson?

I am really torturing myself over the Rams backfield for this contest.  I think Gurley gave us a prelude to 2019 at the end of 2018.  I don't trust a single word from the Rams staff, other than he ran fast one time in shorts and a t-shirt, in a straight line.  I also don't think any specific injury caused him to derail, rather it was a cumulative effect finally catching up to him.  He played 190 snaps from weeks 13-15, which were the most in a 3 game span in his entire career.  Does that sound like something a team would do to a star RB that was injured in his previous game?  I think Gurley will be a weekly game time decision, based on how bad his knee feels/flares up.

That being said, I think Brown's $4 is a better value than Henderson's $15.  It just comes down to simple math - when Gurley hits the wall, will Henderson get an 80/20 share of the fantasy points?  I don't think so.  In a redraft league, I will be targeting Henderson and Brown, but I hate cuffing for the contest.  That's the safe play, and safe doesn't get it done.  So, to answer your question in a long-winded post - Yes, I think Henderson will outscore Brown, but not by a 80/20 ratio.

 

[barackdhouse]

Old Guard Vs New Guard TEs:

We're supposed to believe that Walker, Olsen, Witten and Eifert are done, and Hockenson, Fant, Andrews, Waller and Herndon are the better plays.

Is anyone else struggling with this?

Andrews has appeared on some of my 67,000 roster iterations, and Herndon on a couple, but that's about it.

I do like Olsen and Walker to start the season but I have doubts they last long into the season. Witten will be solid but unspectacular. And I just don't even understand how people are still drafting Eifert. I just don't get it. I would take any of the three bolded younger guys over any of the older ones. And it isn't close for me. All three are likely to explode this year (by TE standards).