Luckily for Tallahassee, they're on the weak side of the storm. There are lots of large trees near above power lines in that region, so loss of power is possible. In August, no AC in Florida is not fun. That will be the major impact for most people affected by the storm.
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Official 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - Tammy (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Mjolnirs
- Start date
Not just AC but many people have their water systems (via well water) ran with electricity. So no electric means no AC and no water. And if you do have running water, it could mean no hot water and there could be a boil water notice.
And then there's sewer systems that can go down....
A lot of things can suck if a major hurricane hits your area.
Senor Schmutzig
Footballguy
Yeah, I basically gave him a spam-wall of texts this morning to make sure he is prepared, but not too freaked out. The place he is living in has a building generator so I'm not too concerned about anything they can't handle.
Osaurus
Footballguy
Yep. A few models have it trending west (slightly). Poor Cedar Key (again)
Osaurus
Footballguy
We’re looking to in the next 5-10 years.
Capella
Footballguy
We just have so much family that loves being around our kids. Do family dinner every Sunday with 8-10 people. Would be heartbreaking to leave that.
Osaurus
Footballguy
No ties like that for us here. We’re on an island with family in a sizable buffer zone.
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
Where are you guys thinking of moving to?
Osaurus
Footballguy
Southwest where moisture is starting to trend upward
. Maybe Carson City, NV
Senor Schmutzig
Footballguy
Same here. I want to do it before prices start dropping because insurance rates are too exorbitant.
3C's
Footballguy
Tell me about it. It was just a Tropical Storm when it hit but 9 days w/o electricity which meant no water as well as no AC etc.
3C's
Footballguy
6z euro has a slightly different long range solution, one that would make me nervous here in VA but I know it can't be trusted that far out and it's not a likely solution.
Osaurus
Footballguy
Cedar Key
CAT 4 was always a possibility and remains so imo.
culdeus
Footballguy
Nhc has the clockwise recurve in the cone now.
Senor Schmutzig
Footballguy
Here is a 5-day archive (Since Saturday @ 8p ET) of the forecast track for Idalia. As you can see, the Gulf Coast landfall hasn't shifted a whole lot in the last few runs but the clockwise curvature in the Atlantic certainly has. A double landfall for Florida isn't exactly what I would be looking forward to right now.
That same page allows you to look at the archives for all of the other graphics to see how the forecast has developed:
Most likely arrival of tropical force winds
Peak Surge Forecast
That same page allows you to look at the archives for all of the other graphics to see how the forecast has developed:
Most likely arrival of tropical force winds
Peak Surge Forecast
Senor Schmutzig
Footballguy
I told my son to go to Walmart with his roommate (they are in Tallahassee) to pick up some supplies and send me the receipt. I give him monthly money for normal expenses but told him to use the credit card for this purchase. Whenever he uses the card, he knows to send me the receipt as it's only supposed to be used for emergencies or out-of-the-ordinary expenses.
Hurricane Idalia Shopping List for a college student:
46 ct Pack of Slim Jims - I guess that's the protein part of every meal
Motts 22 ct Flavored Fruit Snacks - No scurvy
24 ct Nature Valley Granola Bars - Solid choice
Cheetos Puff Cheese Flavored Snack Chips, 8 oz - First thing to go
Orville Redenbacher's Movie Theater Butter Microwave Popcorn, Mini Bags - (Uhhh....the microwave won't work if you don't have power!)
Kraft Mac N Cheese Macaroni and Cheese Microwavable Cups - See above
Pringles Cheddar Cheese Potato Crisps Chips, 5.5 oz - 2nd thing to go
Doritos Nacho Cheese Flavored Tortilla Chips, 9.25 oz Bag - Third thing to go, lol
BODYARMOR Sports Drink Fruit Punch, 20 fl oz, 6 Pack - At least they are staying hydrated
Bridgford Sweet Baby Ray's Sweet 'N Spicy Beef Jerky, 10 Oz. - For when the Slim Jims run out, I guess
Wonder Bread Classic White Sandwich Bread, Sliced White Bread Loaf, 20 oz - Dependable PB&J always makes sense
Jif Creamy Peanut Butter, 16-ounce Jar - Ditto
Welch's Concord Grape Jam, 20 oz Squeeze Bottle - Ditto
Duracell Coppertop AAA Battery with POWER BOOST™, 8 Pack Long-Lasting Batteries - Good thinking - For flashlights/LED lights/headlamps
Energizer MAX AA Batteries (8 Pack), Double A Alkaline Batteries - Ditto
Keep in mind that this was only half the list. His roommate shopped for the other half. If it looks anything like this one, they will be fine for the next month and a half.
Hurricane Idalia Shopping List for a college student:
46 ct Pack of Slim Jims - I guess that's the protein part of every meal
Motts 22 ct Flavored Fruit Snacks - No scurvy
24 ct Nature Valley Granola Bars - Solid choice
Cheetos Puff Cheese Flavored Snack Chips, 8 oz - First thing to go
Orville Redenbacher's Movie Theater Butter Microwave Popcorn, Mini Bags - (Uhhh....the microwave won't work if you don't have power!)
Kraft Mac N Cheese Macaroni and Cheese Microwavable Cups - See above
Pringles Cheddar Cheese Potato Crisps Chips, 5.5 oz - 2nd thing to go
Doritos Nacho Cheese Flavored Tortilla Chips, 9.25 oz Bag - Third thing to go, lol
BODYARMOR Sports Drink Fruit Punch, 20 fl oz, 6 Pack - At least they are staying hydrated
Bridgford Sweet Baby Ray's Sweet 'N Spicy Beef Jerky, 10 Oz. - For when the Slim Jims run out, I guess
Wonder Bread Classic White Sandwich Bread, Sliced White Bread Loaf, 20 oz - Dependable PB&J always makes sense
Jif Creamy Peanut Butter, 16-ounce Jar - Ditto
Welch's Concord Grape Jam, 20 oz Squeeze Bottle - Ditto
Duracell Coppertop AAA Battery with POWER BOOST™, 8 Pack Long-Lasting Batteries - Good thinking - For flashlights/LED lights/headlamps
Energizer MAX AA Batteries (8 Pack), Double A Alkaline Batteries - Ditto
Keep in mind that this was only half the list. His roommate shopped for the other half. If it looks anything like this one, they will be fine for the next month and a half.
Last edited:
3C's
Footballguy
Sorry, meant the 0z. GFS and the Euro has the southeast (clockwise) turn but the 0z Euro has the SE turn, then a stall, then counterclockwise turn back toward VA. Doesn't seem likely and anything past 72 hours is not really trustworthy. GFS does show it heading back to FL but as a weak storm.
3C's
Footballguy
Right, but the GFS and Euro models aren't showing it yet and the NHC has peak winds at 120mph (still a major hurricane of course). NAM 3k shows a much lower pressure and with it picking up speed that seems likely. HAFS-A and B have landfall pressures at 944 and 932MB respectively which would put it at cat4. The -B (lower pressure) has it going into Tallahassee. That would be bad, not that going into Cedar Key isn't.
arrow1
Footballguy
No beer?I told my son to go to Walmart with his roommate (they are in Tallahassee) to pick up some supplies and send me the receipt. I give him monthly money for normal expenses but told him to use the credit card for this purchase. Whenever he uses the card, he knows to send me the receipt as it's only supposed to be used for emergencies or out-of-the-ordinary expenses.
Hurricane Idalia Shopping List for a college student:
46 ct Pack of Slim Jims - I guess that's the protein part of every meal
Motts 22 ct Flavored Fruit Snacks - No scurvy
24 ct Nature Valley Granola Bars - Solid choice
Cheetos Puff Cheese Flavored Snack Chips, 8 oz - First thing to go
Orville Redenbacher's Movie Theater Butter Microwave Popcorn, Mini Bags - (Uhhh....the microwave won't work if you don't have power!)
Kraft Mac N Cheese Macaroni and Cheese Microwavable Cups - See above
Pringles Cheddar Cheese Potato Crisps Chips, 5.5 oz - 2nd thing to go
Doritos Nacho Cheese Flavored Tortilla Chips, 9.25 oz Bag - Third thing to go, lol
BODYARMOR Sports Drink Fruit Punch, 20 fl oz, 6 Pack - At least they are staying hydrated
Bridgford Sweet Baby Ray's Sweet 'N Spicy Beef Jerky, 10 Oz. - For when the Slim Jims run out, I guess
Wonder Bread Classic White Sandwich Bread, Sliced White Bread Loaf, 20 oz - Dependable PB&J always makes sense
Jif Creamy Peanut Butter, 16-ounce Jar - Ditto
Welch's Concord Grape Jam, 20 oz Squeeze Bottle - Ditto
Duracell Coppertop AAA Battery with POWER BOOST™, 8 Pack Long-Lasting Batteries - Good thinking - For flashlights/LED lights/headlamps
Energizer MAX AA Batteries (8 Pack), Double A Alkaline Batteries - Ditto
Keep in mind that this was only half the list. His roommate shopped for the other half. If it looks anything like this one, they will be fine for the next month and a half.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
I work for a reinsurance company, and we’ve expected borderline cat 4 for awhile now. The water temperature is so high that — again, just our experience — the storm was likely to gain power as it progressed, way more than earliest meteorology reports indicated. It’s weird to me that experts haven’t adjusted more quickly to the importance of water temps in the Gulf.
3C's
Footballguy
That's on the roommates receipt.No beer?I told my son to go to Walmart with his roommate (they are in Tallahassee) to pick up some supplies and send me the receipt. I give him monthly money for normal expenses but told him to use the credit card for this purchase. Whenever he uses the card, he knows to send me the receipt as it's only supposed to be used for emergencies or out-of-the-ordinary expenses.
Hurricane Idalia Shopping List for a college student:
46 ct Pack of Slim Jims - I guess that's the protein part of every meal
Motts 22 ct Flavored Fruit Snacks - No scurvy
24 ct Nature Valley Granola Bars - Solid choice
Cheetos Puff Cheese Flavored Snack Chips, 8 oz - First thing to go
Orville Redenbacher's Movie Theater Butter Microwave Popcorn, Mini Bags - (Uhhh....the microwave won't work if you don't have power!)
Kraft Mac N Cheese Macaroni and Cheese Microwavable Cups - See above
Pringles Cheddar Cheese Potato Crisps Chips, 5.5 oz - 2nd thing to go
Doritos Nacho Cheese Flavored Tortilla Chips, 9.25 oz Bag - Third thing to go, lol
BODYARMOR Sports Drink Fruit Punch, 20 fl oz, 6 Pack - At least they are staying hydrated
Bridgford Sweet Baby Ray's Sweet 'N Spicy Beef Jerky, 10 Oz. - For when the Slim Jims run out, I guess
Wonder Bread Classic White Sandwich Bread, Sliced White Bread Loaf, 20 oz - Dependable PB&J always makes sense
Jif Creamy Peanut Butter, 16-ounce Jar - Ditto
Welch's Concord Grape Jam, 20 oz Squeeze Bottle - Ditto
Duracell Coppertop AAA Battery with POWER BOOST™, 8 Pack Long-Lasting Batteries - Good thinking - For flashlights/LED lights/headlamps
Energizer MAX AA Batteries (8 Pack), Double A Alkaline Batteries - Ditto
Keep in mind that this was only half the list. His roommate shopped for the other half. If it looks anything like this one, they will be fine for the next month and a half.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
The microwave items are the best part.I told my son to go to Walmart with his roommate (they are in Tallahassee) to pick up some supplies and send me the receipt. I give him monthly money for normal expenses but told him to use the credit card for this purchase. Whenever he uses the card, he knows to send me the receipt as it's only supposed to be used for emergencies or out-of-the-ordinary expenses.
Hurricane Idalia Shopping List for a college student:
46 ct Pack of Slim Jims - I guess that's the protein part of every meal
Motts 22 ct Flavored Fruit Snacks - No scurvy
24 ct Nature Valley Granola Bars - Solid choice
Cheetos Puff Cheese Flavored Snack Chips, 8 oz - First thing to go
Orville Redenbacher's Movie Theater Butter Microwave Popcorn, Mini Bags - (Uhhh....the microwave won't work if you don't have power!)
Kraft Mac N Cheese Macaroni and Cheese Microwavable Cups - See above
Pringles Cheddar Cheese Potato Crisps Chips, 5.5 oz - 2nd thing to go
Doritos Nacho Cheese Flavored Tortilla Chips, 9.25 oz Bag - Third thing to go, lol
BODYARMOR Sports Drink Fruit Punch, 20 fl oz, 6 Pack - At least they are staying hydrated
Bridgford Sweet Baby Ray's Sweet 'N Spicy Beef Jerky, 10 Oz. - For when the Slim Jims run out, I guess
Wonder Bread Classic White Sandwich Bread, Sliced White Bread Loaf, 20 oz - Dependable PB&J always makes sense
Jif Creamy Peanut Butter, 16-ounce Jar - Ditto
Welch's Concord Grape Jam, 20 oz Squeeze Bottle - Ditto
Duracell Coppertop AAA Battery with POWER BOOST™, 8 Pack Long-Lasting Batteries - Good thinking - For flashlights/LED lights/headlamps
Energizer MAX AA Batteries (8 Pack), Double A Alkaline Batteries - Ditto
Keep in mind that this was only half the list. His roommate shopped for the other half. If it looks anything like this one, they will be fine for the next month and a half.
3C's
Footballguy
Guessing the pros saw slower movement and interaction with a trough and felt that would keep intensity lower.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Yup. They'll cancel school for a couple days and those kids will have the time of their lives.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Move because you might get a rough storm every 3-5 years? I guess I should stop downplaying them so much. Maybe if we start getting hit more often it will get some of the freaking people out of here.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
They paid cash for the booze.I told my son to go to Walmart with his roommate (they are in Tallahassee) to pick up some supplies and send me the receipt. I give him monthly money for normal expenses but told him to use the credit card for this purchase. Whenever he uses the card, he knows to send me the receipt as it's only supposed to be used for emergencies or out-of-the-ordinary expenses.
Hurricane Idalia Shopping List for a college student:
46 ct Pack of Slim Jims - I guess that's the protein part of every meal
Motts 22 ct Flavored Fruit Snacks - No scurvy
24 ct Nature Valley Granola Bars - Solid choice
Cheetos Puff Cheese Flavored Snack Chips, 8 oz - First thing to go
Orville Redenbacher's Movie Theater Butter Microwave Popcorn, Mini Bags - (Uhhh....the microwave won't work if you don't have power!)
Kraft Mac N Cheese Macaroni and Cheese Microwavable Cups - See above
Pringles Cheddar Cheese Potato Crisps Chips, 5.5 oz - 2nd thing to go
Doritos Nacho Cheese Flavored Tortilla Chips, 9.25 oz Bag - Third thing to go, lol
BODYARMOR Sports Drink Fruit Punch, 20 fl oz, 6 Pack - At least they are staying hydrated
Bridgford Sweet Baby Ray's Sweet 'N Spicy Beef Jerky, 10 Oz. - For when the Slim Jims run out, I guess
Wonder Bread Classic White Sandwich Bread, Sliced White Bread Loaf, 20 oz - Dependable PB&J always makes sense
Jif Creamy Peanut Butter, 16-ounce Jar - Ditto
Welch's Concord Grape Jam, 20 oz Squeeze Bottle - Ditto
Duracell Coppertop AAA Battery with POWER BOOST™, 8 Pack Long-Lasting Batteries - Good thinking - For flashlights/LED lights/headlamps
Energizer MAX AA Batteries (8 Pack), Double A Alkaline Batteries - Ditto
Keep in mind that this was only half the list. His roommate shopped for the other half. If it looks anything like this one, they will be fine for the next month and a half.
rustycolts
Footballguy
I guess you wingnut and I are just die hard Florida crackers. I wouldn't live anywhere else.
ChiefD
Footballguy
The first thing you learn in college when you know the parents are viewing cc receipts. I predict great things for the boy.They paid cash for the booze.I told my son to go to Walmart with his roommate (they are in Tallahassee) to pick up some supplies and send me the receipt. I give him monthly money for normal expenses but told him to use the credit card for this purchase. Whenever he uses the card, he knows to send me the receipt as it's only supposed to be used for emergencies or out-of-the-ordinary expenses.
Hurricane Idalia Shopping List for a college student:
46 ct Pack of Slim Jims - I guess that's the protein part of every meal
Motts 22 ct Flavored Fruit Snacks - No scurvy
24 ct Nature Valley Granola Bars - Solid choice
Cheetos Puff Cheese Flavored Snack Chips, 8 oz - First thing to go
Orville Redenbacher's Movie Theater Butter Microwave Popcorn, Mini Bags - (Uhhh....the microwave won't work if you don't have power!)
Kraft Mac N Cheese Macaroni and Cheese Microwavable Cups - See above
Pringles Cheddar Cheese Potato Crisps Chips, 5.5 oz - 2nd thing to go
Doritos Nacho Cheese Flavored Tortilla Chips, 9.25 oz Bag - Third thing to go, lol
BODYARMOR Sports Drink Fruit Punch, 20 fl oz, 6 Pack - At least they are staying hydrated
Bridgford Sweet Baby Ray's Sweet 'N Spicy Beef Jerky, 10 Oz. - For when the Slim Jims run out, I guess
Wonder Bread Classic White Sandwich Bread, Sliced White Bread Loaf, 20 oz - Dependable PB&J always makes sense
Jif Creamy Peanut Butter, 16-ounce Jar - Ditto
Welch's Concord Grape Jam, 20 oz Squeeze Bottle - Ditto
Duracell Coppertop AAA Battery with POWER BOOST™, 8 Pack Long-Lasting Batteries - Good thinking - For flashlights/LED lights/headlamps
Energizer MAX AA Batteries (8 Pack), Double A Alkaline Batteries - Ditto
Keep in mind that this was only half the list. His roommate shopped for the other half. If it looks anything like this one, they will be fine for the next month and a half.
3C's
Footballguy
NHC discussion on the turn past SC:
On days 3 through 5, there is significant
uncertainty on whether Idalia will turn out to sea (as shown by the
COAMPS-TC and HAFS models) or turn southward (as suggested by the
global models). For now, the official forecast shows a slow motion
at the end of the forecast period until the scenario becomes
clearer.
gump
Footballguy
In the late 90’s a ‘Cane rolled up thru Tuscaloosa after school had started…a local bar got word out that they were hosting a special guest…a hundred or so students piled in for free…and had a memory of a lifetime when Hank Jr played for a few hours.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
2004 had that four storm stretch in like 6 weeks. My liver called his congressman.
Or jimmy hats?No beer?I told my son to go to Walmart with his roommate (they are in Tallahassee) to pick up some supplies and send me the receipt. I give him monthly money for normal expenses but told him to use the credit card for this purchase. Whenever he uses the card, he knows to send me the receipt as it's only supposed to be used for emergencies or out-of-the-ordinary expenses.
Hurricane Idalia Shopping List for a college student:
46 ct Pack of Slim Jims - I guess that's the protein part of every meal
Motts 22 ct Flavored Fruit Snacks - No scurvy
24 ct Nature Valley Granola Bars - Solid choice
Cheetos Puff Cheese Flavored Snack Chips, 8 oz - First thing to go
Orville Redenbacher's Movie Theater Butter Microwave Popcorn, Mini Bags - (Uhhh....the microwave won't work if you don't have power!)
Kraft Mac N Cheese Macaroni and Cheese Microwavable Cups - See above
Pringles Cheddar Cheese Potato Crisps Chips, 5.5 oz - 2nd thing to go
Doritos Nacho Cheese Flavored Tortilla Chips, 9.25 oz Bag - Third thing to go, lol
BODYARMOR Sports Drink Fruit Punch, 20 fl oz, 6 Pack - At least they are staying hydrated
Bridgford Sweet Baby Ray's Sweet 'N Spicy Beef Jerky, 10 Oz. - For when the Slim Jims run out, I guess
Wonder Bread Classic White Sandwich Bread, Sliced White Bread Loaf, 20 oz - Dependable PB&J always makes sense
Jif Creamy Peanut Butter, 16-ounce Jar - Ditto
Welch's Concord Grape Jam, 20 oz Squeeze Bottle - Ditto
Duracell Coppertop AAA Battery with POWER BOOST™, 8 Pack Long-Lasting Batteries - Good thinking - For flashlights/LED lights/headlamps
Energizer MAX AA Batteries (8 Pack), Double A Alkaline Batteries - Ditto
Keep in mind that this was only half the list. His roommate shopped for the other half. If it looks anything like this one, they will be fine for the next month and a half.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
Smart kid.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
Our last day at Disney is tomorrow and thought we’d have to stick to ADRs and shopping but things aren’t looking too bad. Stay safe GB and same to all the Floridians.
Wingnut
Footballguy
Yep. I moved here from Michigan back in 1994, don't plan on leaving til I retire to Panama in about 8 years. Love the heat and humidity.
Incidentally, Panama is south of the hurricane belt and hasn't had a hurricane/cyclone make landfall since Martha in 1969.
rustycolts
Footballguy
So I'm watching these guys on you tube. There supposed to be hurricane chasers they look very young probably tictock guys. I won't call them idiots definitely not very smart though.
They are up around Alligator Pointe on 98. When your on 98 the gulf is right there next to the road. They were stopped trying to decide if that was where they were going to park for the storm. They have no idea what a 6 ft surge will do obviously.
They are up around Alligator Pointe on 98. When your on 98 the gulf is right there next to the road. They were stopped trying to decide if that was where they were going to park for the storm. They have no idea what a 6 ft surge will do obviously.
3C's
Footballguy
Hopefully someone convinces them to move well inland. NHC track has landfall around Steinhatchee but I think (based on the latest Levi vid) that it'll be left of that. If they stay there it could turn out poorly for them.
ETA: NHC 5pm shifted left/west a bit.
Last edited:
culdeus
Footballguy
I mean these guys rarely just die. Even deaths of tornado chaser is super unusual
Capella
Footballguy
Years ago I remember being told Tampa has some ancient Indian blessing keeping it safe. Always laughed about it but now I’m starting to wonder.
So, why has Tampa been able to avoid being hit by a major hurricane for such a long time? Many people from the area give credit to the Native Americans of the Tocobaga Tribe which legend says, blessed the land keeping it safe from big storms.
Tampa Tocobaga History:
Back in the 900s, the Tocobaga tribe made the Tampa Bay area their home. They built villages out of shells and sand making temples, burial grounds, mounds and homes for their chiefs. Sadly, they were completely wiped out by disease and war from Spanish settlers. Now, the oldest remaining burial mound is located near Old Tampa Bay which many people think it keeping Tampa Bay safe.
So, why has Tampa been able to avoid being hit by a major hurricane for such a long time? Many people from the area give credit to the Native Americans of the Tocobaga Tribe which legend says, blessed the land keeping it safe from big storms.
Tampa Tocobaga History:
Back in the 900s, the Tocobaga tribe made the Tampa Bay area their home. They built villages out of shells and sand making temples, burial grounds, mounds and homes for their chiefs. Sadly, they were completely wiped out by disease and war from Spanish settlers. Now, the oldest remaining burial mound is located near Old Tampa Bay which many people think it keeping Tampa Bay safe.
