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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
330 million people x 50% infected x 1% death rate = 1.65M dead.DrJ said:
It's not really that crazy to get close to 2M dead with reasonable assumptions.
tri-man 47
Footballguy
Longer than @gianmarco ? Yeah, well, about that ...DrJ said:
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Covid worldometers ...around 85,000 new cases worldwide; approaching 6,600 deaths for the day. Significant increases in Cameroon; Nigeria; Guinea.
Battersbox
Footballguy
Yes, the Subway.Politician Spock said:
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
A radiologist. Is the radiologist an infectious disease expert?DrJ said:
My BIL is a rheumatologist. One of his BFFs is a doctor who specializes in infectious disease. Spent lots of time in the Congo. My BIL has made it very clear that he doesn't know jack #### about COVID compared to his BFF. But yeah, I'm going to take my direction from a random radiologist.
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[scooter]
Footballguy
Politician Spock
Footballguy
While I was there I would buy one of those weekly passes (maybe it was a monthly pass, but I was only there for a week at a time). Rode the subway a lot. Especially as I went sight seeing.
Never had anyone sneeze two inches from my mouth.
Sneezing is also not one of the typical symptoms of COVID-19.
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
That opinion piece isn’t wrong. It may not be perfect either, but it’s probably a decent premise to start from when considering slowly opening some things back up.DrJ said:
The NY Times piece on comorbidities is also really eye opening.
The data and statistics will help guide good decisions. Keep the testing going, ramp it up like crazy. Keep the science on the forefront.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
someone could have sneezed or coughed into their hands prior to boarding, then touched any number of surfaces (bannisters, handrails, straps, seats) to spread it - one doesn't need to literally blow into your mug.
Politician Spock
Footballguy
Yes. The first government mitigation efforts in the US began around March 13th when, for example, Ohio Governor DeWine announced schools would be closed starting March 16th. Then over the next 10 days or so the country started shutting down. It takes weeks to see the results of mitigation, and at the time areas, such as New York City, were sucking hard at the mitigation efforts. There was absolutely no way on March 26 to factor in mitigation to any projection when mitigation efforts are a HUGE variable.
Politician Spock
Footballguy
I know. That's not what we're talking about.
We were talking about how receiving a larger dose of the virus would cause a more severe experience of the virus, and how someone sneezing two inches from your mouth would cause you to get a larger does than touching an infected surface.
Politician Spock
Footballguy
If you read the posts that responded to me on March 26th, I said the same thing then.
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Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
shader
Footballguy
Battersbox
Footballguy
I was being somewhat facetious. However, I'm convinced the subway system in NYC and surrounding areas is among the greatest reasons the spread has been so great there.
I haven't been on most mass-transit systems throughout the country but I've been on many, and NONE of them come close to the experience of the subways in NYC. Just packed, butts to nuts, much of the time. I can't think of a single other time in my life I was forced to be that 'intimate' with complete strangers, except for perhaps during Mardi Gras during my college days. It HAS to be a huge factor.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Matches up pretty well with the data out of italy.
Eta: oh great i am the first post on this page.
Link to study on comorbidities.
Here is another link that was on last page.
Another
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Politician Spock
Footballguy
I completely agree. The dynamics of NYC produced a rate of virus spread that no other area of the country could possibly reproduce.
But once you are infected by it, the rate of spread it took to finally reach you has absolutely nothing to do with how your body experiences the infection.
Some people here are arguing that the deaths NYC is experiencing isn't applicable to other area because the virus won't spread there as fast. I disagree. IMHO yhey will experience the same amount of deaths. The slower spread the experience will just make it take longer to get there. If people were dying in NYC because people at risk of dying were being denied hospital care, then I would agree that areas with slower spread won't have that issue and would have less deaths. But that's not happening in NYC. Residents in NYC have just as much access to hospitalization as the rest of the US with slower rates of spread.
And then some are arguing that people in NYC will die more from this because there is more pollution there, or they get bigger doses of the virus there, or other reasons. Basically they're just coming up with any reason possible to say what is happening in NYC is an outlier and should be ignored.
Battersbox
Footballguy
Agree with all that. But, I would ask you or anyone else who might have an idea: is the fact that you are a subway rider for perhaps 20-30 minutes, breathing the same circulated air as dozens or hundreds of others, often with mouths 6-12 inches apart, sufficient to infect you with a 'high does' of viral load? I mean, nobody has to actually sneeze in your mouth for you to still be treated to a great amount of their viral shedding via their breath. Correct? And if so, the WAY in which New Yorkers are catching the virus could potentially make them sicker and thereby raise fatality rates.
Politician Spock
Footballguy
I'm not sure. I don't need to be an infectious disease expert to know if someone sneezes 2 inches from your mouth to know you'll get a high dosage of whatever their sneeze has.
My understand is the virus rides in the air on droplets, and the droplets that come from ones mouth are contingent on what the person did to expel the droplet. For example, yelling will produce large droplets, whereas simply breathing produces small droplets. Small droplets would result in small dosages of infection. I would think an office where a lot of people shout at each other would be worse than a subway where people don't talk to each other, at least in regards to how bad the air is. The surface areas of a subway would be far worse than the office, but again, surfaces result in small dosages. But again, I'm not an infectious disease expert. It's just my opinion.
Charlie Harper
Footballguy
It's not just one thing. It's everything combined.
The Bay Area isn't as dense. A lot of people commute in cars vs public transit. Large corporations had employees work from home earlier. The local government was encouraging people to stay home even before shelter in place.
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[icon]
Insoxicated
Leaving Wrigley on the L after a game/show can be a treat as well. Nothing compared to those Indian trains tho
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TheWinz
Footballguy
IIRC, you said it will just take longer for less dense areas to spread, but the mortality rates of those infected will be similar, assuming equal care? For example, 1000 people in NYC and 1000 people in Alaska get infected. With access to the same health care, are you saying the death rates should be similar?
NotSmart
Footballguy
Twins die in pandemics 100 years apart - video story
A 100-year-old man, whose twin brother died from the devastating flu pandemic a century ago, lost his battle with Covid-19 in 2020.
A 100-year-old man, whose twin brother died from the devastating flu pandemic a century ago, lost his battle with Covid-19 in 2020.
wazoo11
Footballguy
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Contemporary flu testing is better than 50% accurate - it's PCR based, just like that used for COVID-19. The old antigen test was less accurate.
Regardless, there are many situations in medicine when a definitive diagnosis isn't made. Up until COVID, the protocol for flu-like illness was exclude influenza if the patient presented early enough, as Tamiflu and other flu medicines only are beneficial in the first couple days after symptoms' onset. There are other tests for respiratory viruses (including non-Covid coronaviruses, parainfluenza, rhinoviruses, etc.) but they are rarely done, because those viruses have no specific treatment and the tests cost hundreds of dollars.
Unless SARS-CoV-2 mutated early on to become more virulent (not evident on nextstrain.org), there's little reason to believe it was here much earlier than advertised. If it were, we'd have seen far more severe pneumonias and ARDS without an underlying etiology - a clustering of such illness would surely raise some eyebrows. As far as I can tell, the only new respiratory illness on the radar before Covid-19 was that associated with vaping.
ETA IMO, the fact that clinicians were on high alert through the fall and winter of 2019/20 for weird respiratory failure from vaping really makes it less likely early COVID would have escaped notice.
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Aerial Assault
Footballguy
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Influenza-like illness (ILI) = fever + cough OR sore throat.
Influenza and Covid-19 both present as ILIs, as do a number of other (mostly viral) infections.
It's not wrong to compare Covid-19 to flu. They share many similarities. But it is wrong to say Covid-19 is just a flu.
Covid-19 is deadlier, spreads more easily and leads to far more hospitalizations than non-pandemic influenza. It also may cause more cardiac and pulmonary sequelae than flu, though this remains to be seen. And it might not be seasonal.
HairyGOATee
Footballguy
They should mandate gloves where I'm located. Too many people at the supermarket don't seem to be taking this seriously at all.
HairyGOATee
Footballguy
Also, has anybody been using barbicide as a general disinfectant? If so, how has that been going?
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Yep. And a hospital doesn't need to be 100%+ capacity to be overwhelmed. C-19 patients use a lot more resources than average patients, including the time of healthcare providers.
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Politician Spock
Footballguy
JaxBill
Footballguy
Problem is that if they are used incorrectly, gloves can be as bad or worse than no gloves with cross contamination.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
And FTR, the preferred term is infectious/infecting dose, or viral inoculum. Viral load usually refers to how much virus is present in the blood or bodily secretions after infection has occurred - it's used to monitor response to therapy for HIV and viral hepatitis, but has no role for COVID-19.
Gotta disagree here.
As a FL resident, I don't think I've heard a single person indicate they think this will go away once summer arrives. Sure, some have said that the heat could help slow it down some....but not eliminate it completely.
Florida gets enough of a bad rap. Let's not add to it please.
The Commish
Footballguy
Redwes25
Footballguy
According to worldometers we have crossed over 50k deaths and there seems to be no downward trend of cases and deaths which seem just stuck at just under 30k and just over 2k, respectively. Sometimes for each are on other side of that line such as cases yesterday but generally those are our daily numbers.
Really depressing to see these numbers, I had hoped the plateau would have start seen decreasing numbers by now given the social distancing we have all done but not apparent yet.
Really depressing to see these numbers, I had hoped the plateau would have start seen decreasing numbers by now given the social distancing we have all done but not apparent yet.
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The Commish
Footballguy
It's been all over the place here in Central Florida
Guess I shouldn't have said "all the rage here in Florida"...rather "central Florida"? And I made it clear these were anecdotes of what I've heard/observed. Glad you haven't been exposed to them. It's lunacy.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Thought some of you would find this interesting.
I’m an industrial hygienist and our group at work is part of a task force engaged in the possible implementation of a large-scale cleaning/sanitization system and confirmatory testing. Our role in the task force was to test different cleaning and sanitization methodologies to determine their effectiveness.
Since there is no cheap quick response test for the human Coronavirus, we used a test called the ATP test. This test looks for Adenosine Triphosphate markers using bioluminescence. Adenosine Triphosphate is an energy molecule found in plant, animal, and microbial cells. It shows up in both living and dead cells. So while the test doesn’t actually show whether or not viruses are present, it’s likely a pretty good surrogate and we can be reasonably sure, especially if numbers are high, that the virus may still be present. If numbers are low, the virus is likely not present or present in much lower numbers.
The interesting results were that to truly come up with a sanitized surface, you really do need to follow the CDC guidelines exactly. If you don’t:
1) Clean with a cleaning solution (some kind of soap)
2) Wipe the surface with a one use synthetic fiber cloth
3) Spray the surface with an EPA approved sanitizer
4) Allow the sanitizer for sit for 10 minutes
5) Wipe the surface with a one use synthetic fiber cloth
then the surface isn’t truly sanitized and results came back with high to moderate numbers if any of the steps were skipped.
It was really pretty remarkable that we consistently found that skipping ANY of the steps gave poor results. We actually went in fairly skeptical but the data was pretty eye opening. We had some large state and federal agencies come observe that came away interested and to who we’re submitting our data to as well.
So the bottom line if you’re cleaning surfaces, if you want to do the best job you can, you need to follow those steps exactly. If you skip any steps, the reality is that your effort may be mostly wasted.
I’m an industrial hygienist and our group at work is part of a task force engaged in the possible implementation of a large-scale cleaning/sanitization system and confirmatory testing. Our role in the task force was to test different cleaning and sanitization methodologies to determine their effectiveness.
Since there is no cheap quick response test for the human Coronavirus, we used a test called the ATP test. This test looks for Adenosine Triphosphate markers using bioluminescence. Adenosine Triphosphate is an energy molecule found in plant, animal, and microbial cells. It shows up in both living and dead cells. So while the test doesn’t actually show whether or not viruses are present, it’s likely a pretty good surrogate and we can be reasonably sure, especially if numbers are high, that the virus may still be present. If numbers are low, the virus is likely not present or present in much lower numbers.
The interesting results were that to truly come up with a sanitized surface, you really do need to follow the CDC guidelines exactly. If you don’t:
1) Clean with a cleaning solution (some kind of soap)
2) Wipe the surface with a one use synthetic fiber cloth
3) Spray the surface with an EPA approved sanitizer
4) Allow the sanitizer for sit for 10 minutes
5) Wipe the surface with a one use synthetic fiber cloth
then the surface isn’t truly sanitized and results came back with high to moderate numbers if any of the steps were skipped.
It was really pretty remarkable that we consistently found that skipping ANY of the steps gave poor results. We actually went in fairly skeptical but the data was pretty eye opening. We had some large state and federal agencies come observe that came away interested and to who we’re submitting our data to as well.
So the bottom line if you’re cleaning surfaces, if you want to do the best job you can, you need to follow those steps exactly. If you skip any steps, the reality is that your effort may be mostly wasted.
Sammy3469
Footballguy
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
As a Florida resident, I haven’t seen another Florida resident in 6 weeks. Hope you are right.
I agree in general, but I also didn't expect it to plateau and then 2-4 days later start a steep decline as some models seem to have inferred. I think cases are increasing at a slower rate than expected with increased testing and deaths have plateaued and hopefully will start to decline soon. A steeper decline will be reliant on an anti-viral or some other therapeutic treatment which takes the most effected out of ICU's quicker. I'm cautiously optimistic here, and not depressed. I think good news will be on the way sooner rather than later.
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