*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (9 Viewers)

[parasaurolophus]

Random Covid prediction...

I think the Plexiglas partitions are going to prove to have been almost completely pointless (I think they have some uses but not many). In fact I will argue that they will actually have possibly caused some increases in some locations.  

 

[Doug B]

I think the Plexiglas partitions are going to prove to have been almost completely pointless (I think they have some uses but not many). In fact I will argue that they will actually have possibly caused some increases in some locations.  

Still can't recall an outbreak anywhere related to either grocery stores or retail outlets.

I can agree about the Plexiglas partitions, though. If the cashiers were actually encased in all directions (including "up") in kind of a booth, that would be one thing.

 

[glock]

Not to go all arm chair psychologist on everybody but I think Covid has fundamentally changed our world (short term and long term) - in some ways we are all facing the "death" of life as we knew it.  Like any death we are going through the phases of grief.  Not everybody will go through it the same.  Some people want to go on like nothing happened, some are angry, some have accepted it and moved on.  And yes, I realize this is a totally imperfect analogy as we are still in the midst of the death and some people are actively working to make things worse.  Some things will go back to normal if we can all do the right things.  Some things are never going back to how they were.  And through all of this there's the fear of ourselves or our loved ones getting sick and possibly dying.  It sucks - big time.

Add to this "death" you speak of- we lost to covid my aunt/god mother (90) in a nursing home in April, my MIL (90, but kickin' it!) the end of June and are now watching my son's therapy pet/cat slide away from us with chronic kidney disease at the young age of 6 1/2. We are a hot mess right about now.

 

[The Commish]

Maybe I shouldn't jump into the middle of someone else's conversation, but I am going to comment on this. I think your statement gives the impression that you've never lived in a rural area or somewhere that isn't generally metropolis. I have tons of family in rural Minnesota and this just isn't perceived as a big deal out there. Aside from outbreaks at some meat packing places, they haven't experienced it the same as the Northeast US, AZ, FL, TX, etc. So of course they don't worry about it the same. It's human. Also, they don't generally consume a lot of national news because it doesn't affect them personally. To somebody in a fairly large 20k town in West Central Minnesota, even Minneapolis might as well be in Mars, much less Florida or Italy. 

Not everybody lives near a major metro area or spends time on a magic football board. So while I agree that Covid is a big deal and we should all be wearing masks and stuff, the words of this post just gave me the impression of looking down on people who don't have the same life experiences you and I do. Sorry for butting in. I'll see myself out. 

I spent the first 20+ years of my life (if counting the summers during college) in the mountains outside Asheville NC.  I was about 20 minutes from the nearest grocery store and 15 minutes from the nearest gas station.  I've spent the better part of my life (30+ years) donating my time to people living in areas of this country that have no running water and many houses only have 3 actual walls holding them together.  That said, I don't see what any of that has to do with my comments.  I was asking for context around "tons" and "naturally".  In my view, there is nothing "natural" about shrugging this thing off as "no big deal" IF individuals have paid zero attention to the mountains of coverage at their disposal.  If they are completely cut off like that, they most likely have no idea this issue is even going on, so from that perspective, I'd agree with you and para.  But I'd also point out, if they are that disconnected and unaware they aren't really the person described in his initial post.  The people he's talking about seem to be the people who know about it and still go the "it's no big deal" route.

Well I wasn't thinking quite so rural as no running water when I say rural MN. I was thinking Svea MN (pop 100),  Olivia MN (pop. 2500), or Alexandria MN (pop 15k). All of which are 100-150 miles west of Mpls. 40% of MNs 5.5 million people live outside the Mpls metropolitan area, generally in rural areas like these. Places like this add up to tons of people, IMO. 

And the people in these areas know about Covid, but they haven't experienced it. So they are less concerned about it because it does not affect daily life in their part of the world. In other words, "tons" of people know about covid; it's "natural" that they are less concerned about it and haven't changed their routines because it hasn't affected them. It's not that it's not a big deal to them. They know it's a big deal in NYC or FL. But it's not that big of a deal to them where they live.

Anyway, I'm just trying to help people understand why there may in fact be people who know about Covid but are less concerned about it in their life.

We're going to see this play out in real time unfortunately.  The Villages here in Florida is the exact sort of group of people as you and para have described.  They have had it all around them for months now and no real concern within the community.  Well, now it's there.  They've been able to watch and educate themselves and that area continues to be one of the primary sources of "ain't no gubment gonna tell me wut I can do!!!!" sentiments.  I hope it doesn't go as I think it's going to...we'll see.

 

[top dog]

I think disconnecting somewhat is great advice. I've had to scale back my intake of info a bit. It has been a rough year. I have friends that have lost their wife/mother to COVID. I'm increasingly frustrated with my company and the lackluster attitude toward COVID even though we have had an outbreak that resulted in about 18 people getting sick and a couple deaths. I'm frustrated in our countries response. I'm frustrated because my son is coming home from a tour in the middle east and we can't give him the welcome home party he deserves. 

It is enough to really get you down. I've had my moments of just utter sadness over things, but you have to remember to enjoy the little things that we do have. My wife an I have not been unemployed. My daughter was when things got shut down in March. She was able to get through it and we were able to help. My grandkids are over ALL the time. I get to watch them play in our backyard that I have made into a kids play land paradise. Driving power wheels around and running into everything that I don't want them to. We put in a stamped patio this summer and transformed that area into our own little getaway. I've now got Alexa controlling the music in the gazeebo and the outside lights. My wife and I have spent more time together this year than probably the last 5 years combined. Our lives that were SO FREAKING BUSY.... Well.. Not so much anymore. The time we spend just talking or mulling over what project to do next has been awesome. The whole situation has opened my eyes in a lot of ways. Phone calls with my wacky 85 year old father are burned into my memory now. Have had more conversations with the neighbors over the fence in the past month than we had in the 15 years prior that we have lived here. 

Don't let your guard down as this virus is real. But Andy is right. It is not the end of times. America is not going to crumble and is still a fantastic country that will rebound from this. Sometimes you just have to step back, take a breath and tell yourself... "It is going to be ok." 

 

[jamny]

I've always been an optimist and that hasn't changed. While I do believe it will be a rough winter, I think with all the treatments and vaccines being worked on we will be able to knock this down quite a bit by next spring. Taking a page out of the history books, the Spanish Flu was virtually gone in 1919. I understand this is different and there will be long term effects on people that contracted it but I predict a new Roaring 20's once this is wiped out. 

 

[parasaurolophus]

Does anybody know of any stories of outbreaks caused on airplanes? 

 

[jamny]

Does anybody know of any stories of outbreaks caused on airplanes? 

Was just going to ask this. You would think it would be big news if that was the case.

 

[shadyridr]

Does anybody know of any stories of outbreaks caused on airplanes? 

Some guy insisted he got it through his eyes while on a plane but subsequently tested negative 4 times.

 

[The Commish]

You have to have enough testing and contact tracing in place to be able to trace origins.  We don't have that.  These planes are flying in and out of major hotspots daily and people are traveling in and out of hotzones at all times.  It's virtually impossible to pinpoint origins in our current state  

 

[belljr]

Does anybody know of any stories of outbreaks caused on airplanes? 

To be honest. I honestly think that contract tracing has been off the rails.   So if people traveling caught the virus they have no idea if it was from a plane, hotel, conference etc.

But masks are mandatory on planes, so....

 

[shader]

It's twitter, so take it FWIW..... but this is a twitter thread from a whistleblower in Texas.  

https://twitter.com/shesinscrubs/status/1284950366744989696?s=20

 

[Sand]

I've always been an optimist and that hasn't changed. While I do believe it will be a rough winter, I think with all the treatments and vaccines being worked on we will be able to knock this down quite a bit by next spring. Taking a page out of the history books, the Spanish Flu was virtually gone in 1919. I understand this is different and there will be long term effects on people that contracted it but I predict a new Roaring 20's once this is wiped out. 

In for the flapper girls.

 

[shader]

I've always been an optimist and that hasn't changed. While I do believe it will be a rough winter, I think with all the treatments and vaccines being worked on we will be able to knock this down quite a bit by next spring. Taking a page out of the history books, the Spanish Flu was virtually gone in 1919. I understand this is different and there will be long term effects on people that contracted it but I predict a new Roaring 20's once this is wiped out. 

I 100% agree that by next spring this will be virtually knocked out.  The Oxford vaccine is looking really strong, and there are many other candidates.  Spring of 2021 is a good timeline for having them ready for mass distribution, as well.

 

[perbach]

Was just going to ask this. You would think it would be big news if that was the case.

Read an article early on in this crisis that suggested high altitude essentially immobilized this virus.    

 

[Hankmoody]

200 is nothing.  My niece is getting married the 25th in Ohio and there are 425 invited.  The hall says it's fine since it is private.  There is no way we can get out of going since this is my wife's only sisters kid.

Where in Ohio?  I need to know how far out I need to build my wall.

 

[parasaurolophus]

Some guy insisted he got it through his eyes while on a plane but subsequently tested negative 4 times.

Joseph Fair. He also tested negative for antibodies. So yeah, he didnt catch covid through his eyes in a plane. 

 

[DallasDMac]

There is no way to definitively say that. It simply isn't a death sentence to be older and living in and around COVID. And it's an example of what I mean about near hysteria. 

I'm not trying to downplay it for you, sincerely.

But from an article in May (ancient history, I know but it's the first I found) Covid-19 kills an estimated 13.4% of patients 80 and older. Scary? Sure. But it means that 86.6% didn't die.

I'm five weeks removed from an ICU visit for a Pulmonary Embolism. My lungs are currently inundated with blood clots that will take approximately six months to clear. So while I know you are trying to be a voice of reason, you can probably imagine what I think about your hysteria comment and what you can do with it.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I'm five weeks removed from an ICU visit for a Pulmonary Embolism. My lungs are currently inundated with blood clots that will take approximately six months to clear. So while I know you are trying to be a voice of reason, you can probably imagine what I think about your hysteria comment and what you can do with it.

Well given more context, I think I'll keep my ###### closed but offer my sincerest hopes. 

 

[parasaurolophus]

It's twitter, so take it FWIW..... but this is a twitter thread from a whistleblower in Texas.  

https://twitter.com/shesinscrubs/status/1284950366744989696?s=20

Advocate of a whistlebower right? 

 

[DallasDMac]

Well given more context, I think I'll keep my ###### closed but offer my sincerest hopes. 

Sorry, I shouldn't have replied like I did. I realize you don't know what you don't know. But please realize, when you are talking the human body, not all things are equal. You can't just look at an age sand say "your risk is this" without knowing a person' full background. So apologies for going off. I hope you can understand my initial reaction.

p.s. Note to self, never post your initial reaction.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Sorry, I shouldn't have replied like I did. I realize you don't know what you don't know. But please realize, when you are talking the human body, not all things are equal. You can't just look at an age sand say "your risk is this" without knowing a person' full background. So apologies for going off. I hope you can understand my initial reaction.

p.s. Note to self, never post your initial reaction.

I understand. Take care of yourself. 

 

[Foosball God]

Does anybody know of any stories of outbreaks caused on airplanes? 

anecdotal, but my 17 year old son and I went from Reagan to Minneapolis, then returned Minneapolis, to O'Hare, to Reagan.  We've been self quarantining since we got back, neither of us have any symptoms and should be done with our self quarantine tomorrow.  Flight to Minneapolis and from Minneapolis to O'Hare were two row planes, no social distancing, but everyone wore masks.  Flight from O'Hare to Reagan was a three seater and the airline had all the middle seats empty.

 

[AAABatteries]

It's twitter, so take it FWIW..... but this is a twitter thread from a whistleblower in Texas.  

https://twitter.com/shesinscrubs/status/1284950366744989696?s=20

Even if true - I think this is the product of a poorly run facility and not indicative of the treatment most are getting.  Not saying they shouldn't point these things out if true.  Overall, my spidey sense is up on this one.

 

[Biff84]

Random Covid prediction...

I think the Plexiglas partitions are going to prove to have been almost completely pointless (I think they have some uses but not many). In fact I will argue that they will actually have possibly caused some increases in some locations.  

Depends where you’re talking about. In a place where masks aren’t required or compliance, they can take the place of that physical barrier to prevent direct droplet ‘hits’ on employees. But in most places they are pointless and just a way for a business to say they did something. The ones they provided us were a joke and most people just lean around them.

 

[Battersbox]

Depending on where you live.  In an outbreak area, this is terrible advice.  

Not sure I agree with you here. Kids aren't strong vectors for transmission. And kids absolutely NEED socialization and play time with other kids. Absent underlying conditions for the kids involved, I would allow my kids to socialize even if I was in an area with lots of cases.

 

[parasaurolophus]

Depends where you’re talking about. In a place where masks aren’t required or compliance, they can take the place of that physical barrier to prevent direct droplet ‘hits’ on employees. But in most places they are pointless and just a way for a business to say they did something. The ones they provided us were a joke and most people just lean around them.

The cashier ones are dumb. Most grocery store ones i have seen stop just past the conveyor. So when standing and waiting at the credit card machine, where everybody stands, you have clear line of sight to the cashier. 

You also have now placed a disruption in airflow that can possibly cause an accumulation zone right in front of your worker. 

The cubicle ones could be a big problem if your cube is in the wrong place. 

I am thinking american beauty, but with covid instead of a plastic bag. 

 

[acarey50]

Not sure I agree with you here. Kids aren't strong vectors for transmission. And kids absolutely NEED socialization and play time with other kids. Absent underlying conditions for the kids involved, I would allow my kids to socialize even if I was in an area with lots of cases.

This was posted and discussed a bit more in the school thread, but this rather large study from South Korea shows that this may not be true. I know some smaller studies from Germany and Ireland initially looked more positive at the lack of transmission from kids, but they were a bit smaller in scale (the Ireland one was based on 3 cases).

As I said in the school thread, the German and Irish studies had me a bit more optimistic about the reopening of schools once we get the infection levels down a bit more, but the South Korean study is a lot more sobering especially considering they had gotten the levels fairly well contained.

 

[Rich Conway]

Not sure I agree with you here. Kids aren't strong vectors for transmission. And kids absolutely NEED socialization and play time with other kids. Absent underlying conditions for the kids involved, I would allow my kids to socialize even if I was in an area with lots of cases.

Per the recent South Korea study, they found that kids under 10 transmit about half as well as adults, and kids 10-19 in an equal fashion to adults.  That would mean that, given current outbreaks, allowing even young children to congregate in, say, Florida is a worse idea than allowing adults to congregate in a region with low incidents of cases.

 

[shader]

Per the recent South Korea study, they found that kids under 10 transmit about half as well as adults, and kids 10-19 in an equal fashion to adults.  That would mean that, given current outbreaks, allowing even young children to congregate in, say, Florida is a worse idea than allowing adults to congregate in a region with low incidents of cases.

Yep.  And kids have little ability to play with their friends and socially distance/take precautions.

 

[Shoot_Me_Now]

The county I live in has 400,000 people. I already posted that. You still brushed it off as anecdotal, like it was a handful. 

As if there arent tons of other counties in the US with tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of people that have the same infection rate, or should I say lack of infection rate. 

Just to throw in my state.

My county has 210k people. 

We've had 12 deaths of which the median age is 85. They don't give an age breakdown so I have no idea what the age breakdown is for the half of the individuals that were under 85. 

The CFR using only known recoveries is 2%. Like other states, unless you needed a hospital visit it was nearly impossible to get a test the first two months. It wouldn't take much to get that CFR under 1.  

55% of hospital visits came from people with pre existing conditions and there are currently only 3 people in the hospital for Covid. 

There isn't mass transit here and people don't live in high rise apartments. Its a completely different life than the huge cities of the country. Its been 3 months since the NYC surge. Something like a quarter of the deaths are from New York. We've also learned a lot since then about treating the virus. 

At this point, should the 210k people of my county be trembling in fear?

57% of the people in my state live in my county or counties smaller than it. A top ten state based on population. This is what para is referring to when he mentions tons of people haven't been impacted.

Imo the people saying "no big deal" is also relative and vague. They could mean hoax/election ploy (which is nuts) or they could simply mean not nearly as big of deal as people in this thread make it out to be. We were promised much more death than what materialized (even with lockdowns) so people's reference point is skewed to think the death total should be approaching a million. If promised mass death but the few people around you that aren't making it are 80+ its going to skew how you view the virus. We will never see a NYC surge in these counties but a one size fits all approach is being forced on them. Its understandable that some of them are angry as their businesses have been ripped apart. To call all of these people crazy is equally as crazy imo and that happens everyday in here. 

 

[Don't Noonan]

My mother in law got tested for COVID today at a CVS Minute Clinic in Arizona.  We made the appointment for her yesterday as she has been sick for almost two weeks.  The website said she would get results in 6-10 days but they told her 14-17 weeks is the expected wait time.  WTF?!!  How stupid is that?

 

[shader]

Just to throw in my state.

My county has 210k people. 

We've had 12 deaths of which the median age is 85. They don't give an age breakdown so I have no idea what the age breakdown is for the half of the individuals that were under 85. 

The CFR using only known recoveries is 2%. Like other states, unless you needed a hospital visit it was nearly impossible to get a test the first two months. It wouldn't take much to get that CFR under 1.  

55% of hospital visits came from people with pre existing conditions and there are currently only 3 people in the hospital for Covid. 

There isn't mass transit here and people don't live in high rise apartments. Its a completely different life than the huge cities of the country. Its been 3 months since the NYC surge. Something like a quarter of the deaths are from New York. We've also learned a lot since then about treating the virus. 

At this point, should the 210k people of my county be trembling in fear?

57% of the people in my state live in my county or counties smaller than it. A top ten state based on population. This is what para is referring to when he mentions tons of people haven't been impacted.

Imo the people saying "no big deal" is also relative and vague. They could mean hoax/election ploy (which is nuts) or they could simply mean not nearly as big of deal as people in this thread make it out to be. We were promised much more death than what materialized (even with lockdowns) so people's reference point is skewed to think the death total should be approaching a million. If promised mass death but the few people around you that aren't making it are 80+ its going to skew how you view the virus. We will never see a NYC surge in these counties but a one size fits all approach is being forced on them. Its understandable that some of them are angry as their businesses have been ripped apart. To call all of these people crazy is equally as crazy imo and that happens everyday in here. 

Using hyperbole like this is a bit over-the-top.  No one is saying your county should be trembling in fear.  

 

[-fish-]

To be honest. I honestly think that contract tracing has been off the rails.   So if people traveling caught the virus they have no idea if it was from a plane, hotel, conference etc.

But masks are mandatory on planes, so....

They're supposed to be mandatory.  I flew Delta and not only was the plane oversold and every seat full, but at the beginning of the flight they announced that they'd be coming through the cabin to ensure that everyone was wearing a mask.   Then they sat down.   About 1/4 to 1/3 of the people on the plane took off their masks after boarding, and nobody said a thing.

 

[shader]

My mother in law got tested for COVID today at a CVS Minute Clinic in Arizona.  We made the appointment for her yesterday as she has been sick for almost two weeks.  The website said she would get results in 6-10 days but they told her 14-17 weeks is the expected wait time.  WTF?!!  How stupid is that?

First of all, I'm sorry about your mother-in-law. That's terrible to hear, I hope she gets better soon.

Second, this is a big problem.  I've seen Biff and others talk about the backlog in testing in Arizona (and everywhere). That could have some rather significant ramifications.

 

[cosjobs]

Was just going to ask this. You would think it would be big news if that was the case.

Without an abundance of contact tracing and quick testing, we may never know for a fact. 

 

[jamny]

They're supposed to be mandatory.  I flew Delta and not only was the plane oversold and every seat full, but at the beginning of the flight they announced that they'd be coming through the cabin to ensure that everyone was wearing a mask.   Then they sat down.   About 1/4 to 1/3 of the people on the plane took off their masks after boarding, and nobody said a thing.

Delta filled middle seats in coach?

 

[matuski]

Using hyperbole like this is a bit over-the-top.  No one is saying your county should be trembling in fear.  

You bury this thread in the worst news/links you can find daily.. and are calling that poster out for hyperbole?

 

[perbach]

Just to throw in my state.

My county has 210k people. 

We've had 12 deaths of which the median age is 85. They don't give an age breakdown so I have no idea what the age breakdown is for the half of the individuals that were under 85. 

The CFR using only known recoveries is 2%. Like other states, unless you needed a hospital visit it was nearly impossible to get a test the first two months. It wouldn't take much to get that CFR under 1.  

55% of hospital visits came from people with pre existing conditions and there are currently only 3 people in the hospital for Covid. 

There isn't mass transit here and people don't live in high rise apartments. Its a completely different life than the huge cities of the country. Its been 3 months since the NYC surge. Something like a quarter of the deaths are from New York. We've also learned a lot since then about treating the virus. 

At this point, should the 210k people of my county be trembling in fear?

57% of the people in my state live in my county or counties smaller than it. A top ten state based on population. This is what para is referring to when he mentions tons of people haven't been impacted.

Imo the people saying "no big deal" is also relative and vague. They could mean hoax/election ploy (which is nuts) or they could simply mean not nearly as big of deal as people in this thread make it out to be. We were promised much more death than what materialized (even with lockdowns) so people's reference point is skewed to think the death total should be approaching a million. If promised mass death but the few people around you that aren't making it are 80+ its going to skew how you view the virus. We will never see a NYC surge in these counties but a one size fits all approach is being forced on them. Its understandable that some of them are angry as their businesses have been ripped apart. To call all of these people crazy is equally as crazy imo and that happens everyday in here. 

Agreed with almost everything.   Some of this is unquestionably election drama though.   

 

[Biff84]

The cashier ones are dumb. Most grocery store ones i have seen stop just past the conveyor. So when standing and waiting at the credit card machine, where everybody stands, you have clear line of sight to the cashier. 

You also have now placed a disruption in airflow that can possibly cause an accumulation zone right in front of your worker. 

The cubicle ones could be a big problem if your cube is in the wrong place. 

I am thinking american beauty, but with covid instead of a plastic bag. 

Everything is a function of time and airflow. Most precautions will break down with time but can be helped or hurt by airflow. Plexiglass in schools or cubicle are worthless. And the effectiveness of cloth masks and distance will also decline if you remain in the same area with the same people for long periods of time especially if the airflow is poor. I really think that in addition to masks, distance and hand washing, we should also be preaching time as a big deterrent - not spending too much time in the same area as others if possible.

Unfortunately I have an all too ‘real’ example of this. I work in a pharmacy at a grocery store. The store itself is spacious, plenty of airflow but the pharmacy is only partially open. I am much more at risk if one of the pharmacy employees is positive than if a store employee is. The reason why this is a ‘real’ example is because the store employee I work most closely to tested positive and the pharmacy co-worker I work most closely with has a daughter waiting for test results. I am much more at risk if she tests positive than the outside employee. The distance and the open air should significantly decrease the risk. But with my co-worker in the pharmacy, we work together 20-30 hours per week in close quarters in the non open part of the pharmacy. Even though we both are wearing KN95 masks 90%+ of the time, there’s still a significant risk.

 

[Biff84]

My mother in law got tested for COVID today at a CVS Minute Clinic in Arizona.  We made the appointment for her yesterday as she has been sick for almost two weeks.  The website said she would get results in 6-10 days but they told her 14-17 weeks is the expected wait time.  WTF?!!  How stupid is that?

I know two people waiting on tests, both about a week in. Both are working because they can’t wait for the test results. Neither are too symptomatic but still ridiculous and dangerous. Can’t really blame them though. By the time they get results, the results will be outdated and useless.

 

[renesauz]

As it's my job to care for super sick people, it's virtually impossible to get away from COVID for me. :(

Numbers are up in my facility, and a disturbing number of the sickest are younger (under 50) right now. It's not all old people, or immuno compromised, or morbidly obese, or A blood types, or with a dozen known medical conditions.

 

[The Commish]

To be honest. I honestly think that contract tracing has been off the rails.   So if people traveling caught the virus they have no idea if it was from a plane, hotel, conference etc.

But masks are mandatory on planes, so....

This is a nice way to put it.  Reality is we are basically doing 1/3 of the bare minimum in testing to be able to react.  We do about 700K a day and we need just over 2 million a day.  To get to the point where we can pinpoint and be proactive, we need to be doing 4M tests a day.

 

[parasaurolophus]

This was posted and discussed a bit more in the school thread, but this rather large study from South Korea shows that this may not be true. I know some smaller studies from Germany and Ireland initially looked more positive at the lack of transmission from kids, but they were a bit smaller in scale (the Ireland one was based on 3 cases).

As I said in the school thread, the German and Irish studies had me a bit more optimistic about the reopening of schools once we get the infection levels down a bit more, but the South Korean study is a lot more sobering especially considering they had gotten the levels fairly well contained.

The south korean study was no more robust than the other studies. 

I mentioned this in the media criticism thread but children were only a small portion of the study. 

The conclusions for the 0-9 group were based on 3 secondary infections in the home setting. 

The data set for the 10-19 group was very different from the other groups, like 3.7 contacts per kid. The next smallest was like 8.2. 

The other issue i dont see addressed is how prolonged was the contact.  For example lets say Dad tested positive.  He would go into isolation away from the family when he tested positive. The government actually often covered your wages during your isolation. I think I posted about this in here previously. How you put all your stuff in a plastic bag and basically checked into a facility that was full of covid positive testers. 

How was this exposure duration controlled for?

I think they only isolated sick children when they were with a sick parent. 

Also this study was only comparing symptomatic to symptomatic based on symptom onset. Kids and adults could have easily been infected by same source and just developed symptoms at different time. 

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

Just to throw in my state.

My county has 210k people. 

We've had 12 deaths of which the median age is 85. They don't give an age breakdown so I have no idea what the age breakdown is for the half of the individuals that were under 85. 

The CFR using only known recoveries is 2%. Like other states, unless you needed a hospital visit it was nearly impossible to get a test the first two months. It wouldn't take much to get that CFR under 1.  

55% of hospital visits came from people with pre existing conditions and there are currently only 3 people in the hospital for Covid. 

There isn't mass transit here and people don't live in high rise apartments. Its a completely different life than the huge cities of the country. Its been 3 months since the NYC surge. Something like a quarter of the deaths are from New York. We've also learned a lot since then about treating the virus. 

At this point, should the 210k people of my county be trembling in fear?

57% of the people in my state live in my county or counties smaller than it. A top ten state based on population. This is what para is referring to when he mentions tons of people haven't been impacted.

Imo the people saying "no big deal" is also relative and vague. They could mean hoax/election ploy (which is nuts) or they could simply mean not nearly as big of deal as people in this thread make it out to be. We were promised much more death than what materialized (even with lockdowns) so people's reference point is skewed to think the death total should be approaching a million. If promised mass death but the few people around you that aren't making it are 80+ its going to skew how you view the virus. We will never see a NYC surge in these counties but a one size fits all approach is being forced on them. Its understandable that some of them are angry as their businesses have been ripped apart. To call all of these people crazy is equally as crazy imo and that happens everyday in here. 

There have been a lot of posts about how attitudes differ based on impact. I think most people agree in counties where they have just a few people in the hospital and haven't seen hardly any fatalities, that many people in that circumstance must look at this thing like "are you kidding?"

But the cities like LA, Phoenix, Miami, Houston, San Antonio, etc. though? They're going through a lot right now and it seems that the dismay about the behaviors in those areas and how it's being handled there is more what people are addressing vs. the more rural settings.

 

[The Commish]

And I'll remind everyone again, the initial prognosis from many of the models predicting outcomes was anywhere between 200K and 500K deaths.  It seems like we are going to be in that range easily when it's all said and done.  I'm not sure who "promised" us anything, but those predictions seem like they are going to end up dead on.   

 

[Doug B]

My mother in law got tested for COVID today at a CVS Minute Clinic in Arizona.  We made the appointment for her yesterday as she has been sick for almost two weeks.  The website said she would get results in 6-10 days but they told her 14-17 weeks is the expected wait time.  WTF?!!  How stupid is that?

So basically 3.5 to 4 months? If they didn't mean "14-17 days" ... a test that slow is close to worthless to the patient.

 

[parasaurolophus]

Everything is a function of time and airflow. Most precautions will break down with time but can be helped or hurt by airflow. Plexiglass in schools or cubicle are worthless. And the effectiveness of cloth masks and distance will also decline if you remain in the same area with the same people for long periods of time especially if the airflow is poor. I really think that in addition to masks, distance and hand washing, we should also be preaching time as a big deterrent - not spending too much time in the same area as others if possible.

Unfortunately I have an all too ‘real’ example of this. I work in a pharmacy at a grocery store. The store itself is spacious, plenty of airflow but the pharmacy is only partially open. I am much more at risk if one of the pharmacy employees is positive than if a store employee is. The reason why this is a ‘real’ example is because the store employee I work most closely to tested positive and the pharmacy co-worker I work most closely with has a daughter waiting for test results. I am much more at risk if she tests positive than the outside employee. The distance and the open air should significantly decrease the risk. But with my co-worker in the pharmacy, we work together 20-30 hours per week in close quarters in the non open part of the pharmacy. Even though we both are wearing KN95 masks 90%+ of the time, there’s still a significant risk.

Could you put a couple air purifiers in the end of the pharmacy you work in the least amount of time? To help create air draw away from you?

Get some 20 inch box fans pointing out with 20x20 merv 13 filters in the back of them? 

 

[Don't Noonan]

So basically 3.5 to 4 months? If they didn't mean "14-17 days" ... a test that slow is close to worthless to the patient.

Exactly, the results won't mean anything by the time she gets them and she will have to continue to stay quarantined until she has no symptoms.  

 

[Terminalxylem]

Will not be shocked if we later learn that this was mostly covid antibody testing and it was from breastfeeding. 

The lack of details is odd if it were a true infant outbreak.

ETA: In looking at this county they list an insanely high number of their cases as community spread so detail isnt exactly their strong suit. 

More edit...SHe has already revised her statement. Now it is 52 under the age of 1 since March 21, 85 under the age of 2. Total of ten hospitalized(out of 85 under 2). 

Why would they be testing infants for COVID antibodies?