msudaisy26
Footballguy
Team B did Rob them and it doesn't matter what it might look like in 6 games or next year you made the deal now.
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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
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msudaisy26
Footballguy
Ekeler has no flex value. Last year in PPR scoring he was running back 58 and had an average score of 7.2 points per game. He is just a handcuff unless your league starts 2 backs, 3 receivers, a tight end, and 6 flex spots per team.
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Your defense rests on a hypothetical. And a flawed one. No, if he becomes "their starter" it's not robbery. Lamar Miller is Houston's starter and what, Isiah Crowell is NYJ's? Besides, you can say this about every trade ever made - "John Kelly for Hunt isn't a bad deal if Gurley snaps a leg off and Kelly becomes the next Kamara".
Trades are evaluated based on the value of their assets when the trade is made. And you robbed the guy. Period.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
You would have to have a pretty bad team to be starting Ekeler at Flex when Gordon is healthy in a 12 team league, let alone a 10 team league like yours (maybe if there are heavy bye weeks).
I'm in five 12 team dynasty leagues and I never recall seeing Ekeler in anyone's lineup - until this season where a team is in semi-rebuild mode has him in the line-up because he just doesn't have the horses..
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skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
Yes. It'll be interesting to revisit this one in a year. Just a FYI, this offer was made to me, after negotiation involving other players. I clearly should have countered with 'no, you don't have to include a first, let's make it a second'.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
No, of course you (or anyone else) would accept an offer like that made to you. It was just a terrible offer made by your trade partner - likely an over-reaction to the Bell news. With that said if Bell does not report before Week 10 and if (a big if imo) Conner opens 2019 as the Steeler starting RB then the deal becomes a lot closer. Personally even if I knew Conner was going to get the job, I'd probably take my chance with the picks but it would be close.Yes. It'll be interesting to revisit this one in a year. Just a FYI, this offer was made to me, after negotiation involving other players. I clearly should have countered with 'no, you don't have to include a first, let's make it a second'.
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
For further perspective, the owner that traded with me has lost a total of 3 games the last two years, albeit 2 of those in the playoffs.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Well if he has a team that’s gone 25-1 over the last two seasons somehow I don’t think he’s starting Ekeler at Flex.
So maybe he’s a good owner, but that was a bad offer nevertheless. He does own Bell so maybe getting Conner was super important to him. Sometimes teams are willing to overpay to get what they want and based on his team likely being stacked he could afford it.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
I hope it works out for you man, but I wouldn't have sold Conner for that. I know there's a couple guys in here who will jump all over this, say my league stinks, call me incompetent, and say I don't value picks.
Couldn't care less.
I got offered a very late 1st last night and promptly turned it down. My reasoning is if he's worth that now, he'll likely be worth AT LEAST that next spring. Look at McKinnon as a comp. Nevermind that he was the most overrated player in fantasy this off-season. He was fetching around the 1.06 in most leagues. Imagine what Conner will pull if he's in line to start next year, which I believe is absolutely Pittsburgh's plan right now. Especially if he gets a nice little showcase for a few weeks here.
Personally, I'm riding him for however long Bell holds out. Maybe that's week 2, maybe it's 10. If it's 10 and I'm in contention, then I should have no trouble moving him to a non-contender for a better than late 1st round draft pick. Or maybe I don't NEED to move him, in which case I may hold until closer to next season. Or maybe he'll just be a starter on my team next year. Hard to say right now.
Bottom line, a late first is nice but it's no slam dunk you'll get a difference maker there. Itll take something in the top half for me to move him, and depending on how things play out that might not be enough. Some of that will depend on rookie evaluations which are light years away right now.
I get why some people reject this idea. 1st round picks are shiny. I like them too, but They are far from a sure thing. I feel more confident in Conner's 2019 value than I do in there being a guy I highly value at 1.10 or later at this way early juncture, while totally in the dark.
I guess the one caveat I would add is that, if I felt I could sell him for a 1st, then take that 1st and add it to another player and get a truly elite guy, I'd do it. For instance, if an extra 1st rounder could turn Adams into DHop, or Cook into Kamara...something like that...then yeah, done. I'm in. Otherwise I'm holding for now.
But obviously I don't value picks or think scenarios through, and definitely don't play in an expensive league full of OG sharks from the first days of the FFPC, so what do I know ?
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skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
I appreciate the feedback, and share the sentiment. I might have sellers remorse, no matter how many people tell me I 'robbed' the other party. 
kutta
Footballguy
Ekeler was on the wire and was just picked in the fourth round of our rookie draft. 12 team PPR with 22 man rosters.
There's hardly any value there.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
For sure man. Just to be clear, I don't think you made a bad move or anything. Getting a 1st is awesome. I just think his value hasn't topped out, but I'm on the riskier side of the equation.
If I could trade him for Sutton, who went late first in a lot of leagues, I'd do that right now. But his value has increased and most Sutton owners won't do it. On the other hand, I wouldn't even think of trading him for Kirk, and he went within a pick or two in most leagues.
I just don't have the night vision goggles required to know whether he's worth a late first right now, because eI don't know if I'll WANT someone late 1st next year. I'd rather roll the dice that he's an RB 1 or 2 next year, or I can do better in trade later.
To each their own, but the people in this thread acting like you got away with robbery or I'm some kind of moron because Im considering those possiblities are the ones that don't know what they're doing.
Good luck man. You might be selling high.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
How it happened it irrelevant, you robbed the guy. I never said you did anything wrong, I'm a firm believer in "a fool and his money are soon parted" and it's never owner B's responsibility to look out for owner A. But you still robbed the guy, period.Yes. It'll be interesting to revisit this one in a year. Just a FYI, this offer was made to me, after negotiation involving other players. I clearly should have countered with 'no, you don't have to include a first, let's make it a second'.
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
Knowing the trade is evaluated when it happened, what would you think about it in retrospect if Conner plays half this year, and takes the starting job next year? Fair then?
EthnicFury
Footballguy
SSoG had some really good breakdowns of process vs outcome in the old dynasty rankings thread Chris Wesseling started back in the day. Football is a volatile game and there are plenty of factors that can lead to the ‘smart’ move not paying off or vice versa.
You may well end up being right on this one. Maybe Conner is the next big thing. But if an owner repeatedly pays well above market for backups with no draft pedigree who haven’t proven anything at the NFL level it’s unlikely their team will look great a couple seasons down the line.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Every year there are a couple trades that happen where everyone says “sebowskied!” but then a year later it has completely flipped. We have two schools of thought here, and we will find out how it falls. @skinfanjon wanting to turn down a future 1st for Conner is bullish on Conner. Thinking Dixon or whoever is worth Conner is the opposite extreme. Getting a couple picks as @skycriesmary did is above market value and a good trade for him at this juncture, and no need to feel bad if someone says you robbed them. Take it as a compliment on the trade page. And bumping the post to get some reassurance isn’t a terrible thing.
@skinfanjon I do kind of have an issue with saying that there “aren’t any good backs coming out next year” or that 2019 scouting is “light years” away. Plenty of guys that I’m excited about that produced last year, and you can look at the 2019 dynasty prospect thread and get a lot of info. If you can see this gleaming opportunity for Conner lining up, you also have to consider the rosier side for a 2019 pick that may be late but isn’t guaranteed to be. I have a league where the highest scoring team didn’t make the playoffs- 2 years in a row! Unfavorable sequentiality is what I call that, or bad luck. Conner could 1) not produce in his opportunity 2) see his opportunity disappear this week 3) could face competition added in the offseason. Of course he could play 16 games and beast this year too. I guess my point is that the 2019 class isn’t as weak as it’s being made out to be and late 1sts sometimes turn into top 5 picks.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
FFPC has a victory points system that makes predicting late picks much more accurate. Injuries can derail any team but you have to make your best guess and go from there. Trust me, it's like 85% the pick I was offered is 1.10 or later.
I definitely NEVER said "there aren't any good backs" coming out next year. I like Montgomery quite a bit. Others will emerge, they always do. And yeah, I've done a decent amount of evaluation on the prospects as they stand today. But that piece of the puzzle IS light years away. It's extremely volatile and there's a whole season, Senior Bowl, combine, and NFL draft between now and when we draft. I don't devote much attention until after the college season because it's just not a very good use of time given all that can change.
To the other poster here, Conner's vaule right now is a late 1st. There was no robbing. Sell or don't sell, buy or don't buy, but that's his value. I mean just consider the last rookie draft. The only guys I would sell him for right now are Barkley, Guice, Sutton, Royce, and Moore. He's basically the same prospect as Chubb right now. Limited contribution this year but long term outlook is bright. And frankly Conner is MUCH more valuable until Bell reports and the starting RB for Pittsburgh is far more valuable than the same position in Cleveland until further notice. Rojo? Michel? Kerryon? Kirk? Why would any of these guys be more valuable than Conner right now? They all have immediate obstacles to productivity this year and aren't elite prospects based on pure talent.
Sutton is a damn good idea though. In fact, I'm gonna go make that offer right now.
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Hankmoody
Footballguy
I love Penny and moved on from Hunt long ago but even I don't think I would have done this one. However, Jack has stud LB potential and in IDP leagues those are gold, think Kelce type impact so I think the rosters of the teams involved would be helpful (but I'm too lazy to go look them up haha). A couple years ago this was Jeremy Hill for Melvin Gordon and Kirksey. Either that or David Johnson for Derrick Henry and Jamie Collins
Hankmoody
Footballguy
There's a massive difference between being right and getting correct value. A year ago I could have offered you Kamara for Le'Veon and you would have laughed that offer out of the building but today it's a whole different story and a rebuilding owner would probably jump all over that. Tyreek Hill straight up for Amari Cooper in late 2016 probably gets veto'd but look where we are now.
Look at that Hunt trade posted above I just commented about. Sure, a year from now Hunt might be in an Andy Reid special RBBC and Penny could be Kamara but who here is putting money on that happening? You're sitting here pretending to have remorse about the trade - would you consider giving even close to that much in another league to get Conner? Even if you had Bell and needed the handcuff protection, are you really going to consider giving up a potential IDP difference maker (I don't know your scoring but Griffin is a stud in mine) PLUS a 1st round pick? C'mon man.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
So a late first is no sure thing but a guy taken in the third round of rookie drafts last season is?
and I’m not trying to slam you - we all have players we believe in more than most but just trying to show that in your quest to shout down the “haters” you used some faulty logic.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
Where did I say he's a sure thing? Lol you even quoted the exact part of my rationale that clearly couches the argument as not a sure thing..."more confident than".Dr. Octopus said:
And I can't think of faultier logic than using draft results from over a year ago to assign value to a player today.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
What has changed that would increase his value at this point?
anyway the point wasn’t that he still has third round value - read it again.
I will say turning a third round rookie pick that hasn’t even had a chance to show he can play in the NFL into a first round pick is a pretty tremendous profit. If one could pull that off every year I’d say at least 75% of the time it would pay off in your favor or at worst be a wash.
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skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
I appreciate your feedback, but don't go telling me what I'm 'pretending' to do. As far as your question about what I'd give for Conner if I had Bell, I would give up a 1st and a good IDP player if it were a late first (which it will be) and I had depth at DE, and I had little depth behind Bell. The starting RB gig for the steelers will be a good one for whatever player lands it, I'm willing to overpay a bit for that opportunity. I didn't in this case because the picks and IPD were more important in this instance, and the offer was too compelling. That being said, I really can see both sides.Hankmoody said:
I finally win on ONE trade in 14 years and now this is a thing. 
skinfanjon
Footballguy
Lol what has changed? Um, LeVeon Bell has not reported to the team and Conner is the starter. And he has an excellent chance of being the starter next year too. I mean, other than that, not much.
I would venture to call this situation unprecedented in fantasy. Whats the point in trying to compare it anything else? Between the caliber of player sitting out, the quality of the position at stake (Pit RB), the lack of data on the new guy, and what the hell, let's just throw cancer survivor in the mix too so there's not much fair college tape to look at. Yeah, this is a totally unique situation.
I'm betting on my read of the situation at least as much as the player here. I could be wrong. Or he could be a startup 2nd rounder next year.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Well him having an “excellent chance” to be the starter next year is just your speculation - and Bell still has a few hours to report and “ruin” Conner’s value for this season. I’ll admit at this point it’s looking good for Conner though - but even if Bell doesn’t report until after Week 10 you’re going to lose Conner’s production for the last three games of your fantasy regular season and your playoffs.
Now there’s no way I would say there’s no chance Conner takes this job and puts up 1,300 total yards 8-10 TDs in the season and/or that doesn’t parlay into him getting the job next season, but even if he does will he be worth that much more than a 2019 first round pick in 2019? So trading a first for him now is paying for his ceiling - most likely. Obviously he could lead the league in rushing yards and score 15 TDs and be worth even more but that’s a stretch.
Like I said if you’re a believer there’s nothing wrong with that. We all have guys we value higher than everyone else does - it makes this game fun and you’ll feel great if your call is correct.
That doesn’t making some one overpaying now the right move though. It could pay off but a great result doesn’t always mean the process was good in the first place.
I own Bell in one league and don’t have Conner. I am one of the top 4 teams in the league - probably even without Bell but Bell would obviously increase my odds to win the championship. Even with my pick likely being late I have no intention on offering a first for Conner though. I will admit though on the flip side if I did own Conner now in that league I probably would not trade him for a random first because I’d rather see what he could do for my team this year and roll the dice.
Conner is a great story and volume is the first step towards production for a RB so he’s not a bad guy to bet on. Good luck.
JackReacher
Footballguy
FFPC player here; just curious about his roster that you have him pegged at 85% to earn bye.skinfanjon said:
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Matt's Eagles
Footballguy
12 Team .5 PPR
Team A got D Guice, Cameron Meredith, 2019 3rd/4th
Team B got Jamaal Williams, Alfred Morris, Kelvin Benjamin
Team A got D Guice, Cameron Meredith, 2019 3rd/4th
Team B got Jamaal Williams, Alfred Morris, Kelvin Benjamin
Spike
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
12 team PPR 1.5 TE
Team A gives Bell, 2019 2nd
Team B gives Melvin Gordon, Marvin Jones
Team A gives Bell, 2019 2nd
Team B gives Melvin Gordon, Marvin Jones
Zyphros
Footballguy
Melvin/Marvin easily. Bell won't play for 4'ish games. And even after that it's basically a 10 game season for him to get use to NFL action.
I'd take the WR's in both deals. Just doubt Mack is going to be some long term starter. See both WR's as having more upside
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Man... Guice obviously
Gordon/Jones for me. I get it and why Team B wanted Bell, but I'd take the other side.
Golladay easy
Miller easy
I don't understand the reason for Mack and why you'd give up two potential star WRs for a RB who is average at best. Even if Mack is "the guy" I see the other two having much better, and longer, careers than Mack. Miller especially... hes, IMO, the next AB
Nero
Footballguy
I think age was the biggest factor for me. Mack is almost three years younger than Golladay and a little over a year and a half younger than Miller. There isn't a lot of guys who came into the league at the age of Golladay and Miller and had sustained success. Secondly, I liked Mack more than most coming into last year. The Colts added Wilkins (almost two years older than Mack) who has looked average and Hines who has looked terrible. I feel like there is plenty upside with Mack if he locks down the feature role with Luck at the helm. The Golladay trade I made out of need because I lost McKinnon on a strong team where Golladay was at best one of my bye week fill in choices along with Parker and Meredith. Once that one was accepted I knew for certain the Miller one would be accepted and I feel like Mack gives me greater upside at this point.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Golladay pretty easily
Marlon Mack pretty easily
Miller is nothing special. I don't understand the hype on him as this dominant #1 WR type of guy. He's Jamison Crowder +. Still valuable, but I'll take the possible workhorse RB over 4th guy in the pecking order on that offense with really no chance at moving up that ladder. Golladay at least has that opportunity to move up and shown a high ceiling.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
skinfanjon
Footballguy
I'm a little disappointed. He had a 3rd TD called back due to a bad holding call lol.
Tellin y'all...
Interseptopus
Footballguy
you realize that Miller and golladay could have 10 years more of a career whereas Mack is relevant, if relevant, for half of that if luckyNero said:
Nero
Footballguy
I also realize that outside of Roddy White, TJ Houshmandzadeh and Donald Driver guys that enter the league as old as Golladay and Miller usually don't have 10 years of relevancy. They are far more likely to have a brief stint as a fantasy starter like Cruz and Theilen, but more like to have sustained mediocrity like Amendola and Lafell.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
we can all find examples of guys who have succeeded or not succeeded. bottom line is those 2 WRs are worth so much more than Mack
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
Yeah, there will be lots of crow eating in this thread regarding Conner. But hey, I robbed him!
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
skinfanjon
Footballguy
Just flipped Conner in my $1250 FFPC.
Gave: David Johnson, James Conner
Got: Alvin Kamara, Rams D
I wasn't blowing smoke on Conner. I think he's a good asset, even long term. Just threw this out and he accepted pretty quickly.
Gave: David Johnson, James Conner
Got: Alvin Kamara, Rams D
I wasn't blowing smoke on Conner. I think he's a good asset, even long term. Just threw this out and he accepted pretty quickly.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
You don't have to be blowing smoke to make that deal - Kamara is a stud and is the "safest" guy in the deal. Pretty fair deal overall though.
Avery
Footballguy
I think this would be as appropriate a place as any to kick myself in the ### for turning down before week 1:
I get: Kamara
He gets: David Johnson
I just was seeing a regression of Kamara and David Johnson is older but has one one more year of NFL wear and tear vs. Kamra so I told him that Johnson has more value (which, in my defense, he clearly thought to since he was asking for a 1:1 positional trade) and I needed something else to make up the difference. I asked for the addition of his Tyreek Hill for my Allen Robinson to make the trade.
If he took that, I'd be a freaking genius today. Instead he told me to pound sand.
I'm currently avoiding him.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
Yeah that's how I'm looking at it. Got a way younger stud and best player in the deal.
