TheBottomLine
Footballguy
Sorry guys, forgot to add that it is a deep IDP league too. Changes things some.
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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (16 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
Only that I would just not have replied because I don't play in 10 teams leagues or best ball but feel like I can relate but adding in IDP and that's so much unknown for I would have not felt qualified to give an opinion....not that we are seeing that as any kind of criteria around here for posting or anything.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
It depends on other league settings, but likely I'd take Lewis and then look to flip him. I think he's worth about the 2.04 himself, so throwing in the picks looks like a guy with a deep roster that can't keep a bunch of fliers that's just making sure the other guy can't say no. This is what I call a grinder trade. If you are willing to flip all 4 of Lewis, #35, #39, and #49 you can easily end up with more overall value. It's a lot of time and effort, but if you're a grinder like me this is what you do, and love doing it, so it really pays off. In my league I could likely get a late 2nd for Lewis. I could easily sell each of those picks for $4-5 FABB each. I could then take $6 and that late 2nd and get back into the 2.02 range. So I net $5-8 FABB for my efforts and move up a spot or two in the draft order.
I could see someone not wanting to do all that work, but this is my approach to dynasty. Keep earning nickels, because they eventually add up to a dollar. Everyone will get the chance to turn AJ Klein into Kelce (my first dynasty trade ever a few years ago) and you definitely take them when they hit, but those are unreliable and unpredictable. When you can consistently grind out equity you can eventually consolidate it all into a big asset.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Fair points. It's also worth pointing out that his catch rate is likely to regress towards the mean a bit. He'll need a slight bump in targets simply to reproduce his reception/yardage numbers. TDs could go the other way.jeaton6 said:
I get it. It's certainly sound practice to turn 2+ fringe starters into 1 solid starter, almost without exception. I just don't think the gap between Maclin and Crabtree is very wide at all. Garcon isn't sexy, but he's enough offset the gap for me. But again, I understand the move.
Edit: Washington has enough money to offer him anything he's likely to get on the market. Maybe another team does something stupid, which is always a possibility. But Washington will be very much in the hunt--and the interest appears to be mutual.
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My bad on the slow reply.
So basically you are going against the grain and ranking Ertz ahead of him (I also like Ertz a lot), considering ranking an old Olsen over him, and you mention you like Henry (but you don't say if you're really committing to calling him the dynasty TE4 or TE5). So you say Eifert is not a top 3 TE but you're not really making a strong case that he's anything outside of a top 4 TE. I'm a little baffled by even the mention of Fiedorowicz, Walker, and Ebron. You can't possibly be saying you rank them close to Eifert, can you?!
I like the trade for you. Keenan is still young, so even if you were to have hit a nice WR at 1.05 you wouldn't be getting that much younger. Plus, people keep acting like Keenan's value is tied to 12 targets a game like he was getting in 2015, but his current value is actually right around 8 targets per game. So you don't need crazy target numbers to win that trade, but it is entirely possible that his connection with Rivers is still very strong and he ends up with 10 targets per game and really tilts that trade in your favor.
Tyrell had a nice year as the last man standing after Keenan and Benjamin got hurt, but we saw the same thing happen with Aiken in 2015. The notion that he's going to hurt Keenan's value is pretty silly. If anything, a healthy Benjamin + Tyrell will keep defenses honest instead of constantly double teaming Keenan.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I agree that Williams shouldn't effect Allen's targets much, if at all, and also that his presence could help. I don't agree with the Aiken comparison though as it was fairly obvious that Aiken was "just a guy" while Williams looked to be a playmaker. I know that really wasn't the main point of your post though.
Right, it wasn't the main point but I do find it an interesting topic. I thought the same thing as you - that Aiken was a JAG with a lot of targets, but there was a Matt Harmon article that detailed out his routes and targets and such and it actually painted Aiken as a pretty good WR, yet when shinier toys arrived the next year (Wallace, Pitta) he got bumped down. I think Tyrell is better than a JAG, but not really anything special, so he could easily suffer the same fate. I think Benjamin is terribly underrated, so with him and Keenan fully healthy next year I think people will be quite disappointed with Tyrell's target load.
Protocols of Stringer Bell
Footballguy
Gave Moncrief, 1.09
got
Allen Robinson
got
Allen Robinson
One More Rep
Footballguy
That's overall play. Looking purely at run blocking Crowell managed 4.8 ypc and Hyde 4.6 ypc with worse blocking than Gordon had:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol
When evaluating the trade I would not be looking too closely at that 144 target season in Philly. He's played 26 healthy games in KC with a 16 game average of 81/999/6. Crabtree and Carr improved their rapport in year 2 whereas Maclin and Smith seem to have taken a step backwards. I think the trade is pretty fair, but I'd probably lean slightly to the Crabtree side.
Garcon should be free. I'd rather use a roster spot on a long shot prospect.
Zyphros
Footballguy
10 team 2QB 3WR 2RB 2TE 2Flex .5ppr
I'm very sure that I got the short end of my own trade offer, just posting it because it happened
I traded away: Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas, Devin Funchess 1.10, 2018 1st, 2018 3rd
I got: Amari Cooper, 1.04, 2.02
I was 13-1 through the season lost in the first round of playoffs and still have a very strong team. Got younger by a lot, and AB is likely going to steadily decline on value from here on out. Also really like 2 guys after the RB's so top4 is my tier break for rookie draft.
I'm very sure that I got the short end of my own trade offer, just posting it because it happened
I traded away: Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas, Devin Funchess 1.10, 2018 1st, 2018 3rd
I got: Amari Cooper, 1.04, 2.02
I was 13-1 through the season lost in the first round of playoffs and still have a very strong team. Got younger by a lot, and AB is likely going to steadily decline on value from here on out. Also really like 2 guys after the RB's so top4 is my tier break for rookie draft.
Zyphros
Footballguy
How though? The recent polls on this very forum have AB at pick #6 and Amari 2 picks after at #8. So to bridge that gap what is the price? Seriously it's 2 spots different so even if you call it a wash, then that leaves DT 2 1st's and 2 very minor pieces for an early 1st and early 2nd. So again to trade up to 1.04 and to get 2.02 as well, wouldn't you expect a minimum of 2 late 1st's? So again lets call that a wash (2 late 1st's and Funchess for 1.04 and 2.02), then I overpaid by a DT/3rd but his value is in the toilet. That's the way I look at it at least. These "washes" are also the very LEAST you could likely pay so I fail to see how it's an overpay by DT/1.10/Funchess/3rd.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Warhogs
Footballguy
I think you got the short end of the stick but not like it's a franchise killer.
Antonio Brown for Amari Cooper you lose a little bit.
Lets call it DT and 1.10 to get to 1.04. Seems a little high but generally you have to overpay for a premium pick.
That would leave Funchess, 2018 1st and 2018 3rd for 2.02.
I think you should have been able to retain a couple of those pieces and still get a deal done so I think it was a bad trade for you by maybe a 2018 first round pick. Now if you are still a very good team that could be an overpay by a late 2018 first round pick which isn't good but I have blown plenty of those picks on garbage players.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Take away either the 1.10 or the 2018 1st and I think it's fine. Considering your 1st is likely late given what you said and your record, those are relatively close in value. One of them wasn't needed.
Brown ~ Cooper/2.2
DT/1.10 ~ 1.4
(Funchess/3rd minimal value in the deal)
Warhogs
Footballguy
For me not as much as Hopkins. Both are young and had a big year 2 years ago and a bad year last year. I think that trade was reasonable if you believe Robinson is more like his 2014 numbers than his 2015 numbers.
garlicduck
Footballguy
I pretty much agree with this...you may be a strong team now but traded a lot of depth in a league where you can start 5 WRs. But, maybe it's time to sell on AB, better early than late.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Wait, there's someone here that admits they aren't qualified to give an opinion??????? Only honest man in sharkshank........
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Mind sharing your thoughts on that? I think both are likely overvalued, but find comfort in Hopkins having had two big seasons, to AR's one.
I don't believe Robinson is overrated, but as an owner I was very disappointed in his 2016 season, especially after the year he had in 2015. I didn't expect him to repeat his 2015 campaign, but I also didn't expect it to see a 600 yard drop in yards from the 2016 either. His TD regression was also more than I wanted to see. Overall the Jags were a train wreck in 2016. With Robinson still only 23 I still believe he's inside the top 10 in dynasty WRs, closer to 5-7 range in my opinion.
Warhogs
Footballguy
Sure. It may have come across as being more to it than what there is. I don't consider Hopkins as having 2 big seasons, only 1. His 2nd big season was 76-1210-6. Those aren't bad but he is a year older and has one double digit td season (11 td) which is the same as Robinson (14 td). What I meant by my comment is that generally everybody has Hopkins ranked ahead of Robinson but they both very similar. Very similar stats last year, both had their big year 2 years ago. One has an extra year of good production but it's because they are a year older and had an extra season under their belt. On top of that I feel better about Jacksonville's offense with Bortles still in place and hoping for a rebound over the offense in Houston with a very unsettled QB situation. So my view is that I see very little difference between ARob and Hopkins but Hopkins is generally held in much higher regard.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
If Cooks is $21, Robinson looks like a steal at $10. What were your thoughts in moving him?
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Just my opinion. I'm not high on Cooper at all, I think he gets lazy and misses chances on the field. I don't have him within 2 spots of AB, I have him about a round later. That poll is slightly skewed by the 2 RB format, in a 12 man that places a ton more emphasis on them. Where is 1.04 going to end up in a startup? 4th round? That's probably not even enough to get from early 2nd (Cooper) to early 1st (AB). So I unpacked your trade thus:
Cooper + 1.04 = AB
2.02 = 2018 1st
Like I said, if you threw in Funchess or the 3rd on that deal I wouldn't pick that nit, that's fine for an overpay to get guys of this magnitude. But now DT and 1.10 are unaccounted for.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
You got hose by a LOT in value. I mean, a LOT. If there were a couple strong QBs in the draft then I could see it, since it is a 2 QB league.
But no, this is bad. Your team got worse AND you lost value??
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One More Rep
Footballguy
Maybe a little but Moncrief is really overratedJohnnyU said:
One More Rep
Footballguy
Hopkins had a big 2nd and 3rd year. This was his 4th yearWarhogs said:
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One More Rep
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Most people don't really consider 75-1200-6 a "big" year unless it came from a tight end.
garlicduck
Footballguy
As a 2nd-year player and with an ADP of 42 he finished as the #14 WR...I would call that pretty big.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Good value relative to his draft position? Sure. Big year? No.
Would you say Emmanuel Sanders has had "big years" the last two years? Would you be happy paying an elite price for Hopkins if he was a perennial 76-1200-6 type guy? Basically a very slightly better Emmanuel Sanders?
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One More Rep
Footballguy
He was a wr1 from week 1-16. Had a bad game week 17 in a week that does not count and finished as wr14 after week 17
garlicduck
Footballguy
So I guess if you finish outside the top-10, it's not "big." But the comparison was with Robinson who's had 1 "big" year and next best was a #31. Plus, Robinson had the same QB for both seasons so he can't blame it on that.
Warhogs
Footballguy
Pretty much my thought process. If you are ranking a wr as top 5 you aren't happy with 1200 and 6.
garlicduck
Footballguy
Okay, fair but this did not start off as a "ranking" thread but as a rant about who's more overrated, Robinson or Hopkins.
If it was a ranking thread. Only AB, ODJ and Julio have been top-10 WRs every year for the last 3. Jordy and Baldwin are the only 2 WRs who have finished top-10 twice the last 3 years, but they not even in discussion for top 15 Dynasty WRs, mostly due to age. So, all the WRs being ranked from 5 on down have had 1 "big" year, or in the cases of Cooper and Watkins 0 "big" years. So, prepare to be "unhappy" a lot.
I always laugh when someone says that getting a certain player is a "steal" at #10 in the draft. No player can ever be a steal as a top 10 pick, he is expected to put up stud numbers.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I would take Hopkins numbers from a 2nd year guy any day and be thrilled as hell
Well, I traded Robinson for Crowell and Moncrief. My thoughts on that deal were that Crowell is a FA, he is 24 years old, he rushed for nearly 1000 yards on the crappiest team in the NFL, and he catches a lot of passes. My receivers are now Evans $26, Cooks $21, Jeffries $6, Moncrief $1 plus I have lots of cap room. I happen to like Cooks, and I don't like the Jaguars getting better, I saw way too much Marquise Lee last year as well.Concept Coop said:
Warhogs
Footballguy
I stand by my point that I see little value difference between Hopkins and Robinson at this point in their early careers. Thus for me, Hopkins is more over rated because he costs probably a full round more in start up drafts to acquire. It's really the issue you have when dynasty owners were trading value equal to 3 first round picks for Hopkins last year. They are looking at his age and coming off a big season and they are projecting him to give them 1500-10+ each year for the next 6-8 years so they are disappointed. Again, my statement is that there isn't much difference between Hopkins and Robinson other than one guy is a year older and has one more good season. I believe in Robinson enough to think he has just as good a chance as Hopkins to string together good seasons for the next 6-8 years but he is cheaper.Okay, fair but this did not start off as a "ranking" thread but as a rant about who's more overrated, Robinson or Hopkins.
If it was a ranking thread. Only AB, ODJ and Julio have been top-10 WRs every year for the last 3. Jordy and Baldwin are the only 2 WRs who have finished top-10 twice the last 3 years, but they not even in discussion for top 15 Dynasty WRs, mostly due to age. So, all the WRs being ranked from 5 on down have had 1 "big" year, or in the cases of Cooper and Watkins 0 "big" years. So, prepare to be "unhappy" a lot.
I always laugh when someone says that getting a certain player is a "steal" at #10 in the draft. No player can ever be a steal as a top 10 pick, he is expected to put up stud numbers.
garlicduck
Footballguy
Okay, but after break out years for both players in 2015, Hopkins' ADP was #4 and Robinson's ADP was #7.
Now, the only ADP I can find DLF January Mock has Robinson going #9 and Hopkins going #10. So, not only is Robinson not "cheaper" but I see him as more of a risk because he doesn't have the track record of Hopkins or the excuse of Osweiler. I would agree that IF you can get Robinson a round later that would be a good deal but I don't think it happens.
Warhogs
Footballguy
Just look at the poll they are doing in this forum now. That is what I am basing my position on. No way is just about anyone taking Robinson before Hopkins. Hopkins went #10 overall. It looks like Robinson might have a chance to go #14. He might go more in that 15-18 range. In reality we can split our differences and Robinson might only be half a round cheaper.
garlicduck
Footballguy
I looked at the only source I had - even with that poll, if you take out the rookie picks, you are talking 2-3 picks - same as last year. I'll take Hopkins at that price over Robinson.
doowain
Footballguy
I forget where I saw it, but I remember seeing somewhere during the season that Gordon had the worst average of yards behind the line of scrimmage at first contact in the league. Meaning he was meeting a defender in the backfield deeper and more often than any other RB in the league. Considering his volume, his ypc is actually more impressive than it is troublesome for me.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Well, the 1.9 isn't chop liver, so in my mind that trade looks about even. Should be able to get one of the top TEs, or maybe Smith-Schuster (I'm not a fan), or Cooper Kupp, or one of the 2nd tier RBs with that pick.
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Nero
Footballguy
If you have the depth to give Brown and DT to get younger, good deal. The picks you received are better than the ones you gave away. I could see trying to hold on to 1.10 or the 2018 1st, but it could also be a deal breaker. Most times, teams with the high picks are not going to take on an aging player who alone will not make them a contender.
