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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (9 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I knew what you meant.
ETA- I see why you made that comment because I phrased my reply poorly and left off "for" 2.5.
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Pwingles
Footballguy
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I have Hopkins in a PPR league and would jump on that faster than a jackrabbit on a date.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Stolen from A Christmas Story.
"The old man could replace fuses quicker than a jackrabbit on a date.”.
Tejas
Footballguy
@menobrown what’s your logic? Henry isn’t a top 5 TE asset. I’d say that order would be: Kelce, Ertz, Gronk, Engram, and Njoku. You have outlier (albeit gimps) in Reed, Olsen, etc. Also, have to add OJ Howard to that list. There are three TE’s in this class I like more than Henry, who’s constantly battling for targets in an overly crowded offense.
Because I don't see see him anything like you and would have him easily in my top 5 right now and my guess is at end of 2018 he'll be my TE1.
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
obviously our opinions vary on ranks of players but looking at admittedly a small data set from March on some dynasty startups, Henry is coming off the board as TE5, consistently and a round or 2 ahead of Njoku and Howard. On average most have him somewhere around TE5
barackdhouse
Footballguy
12 team PPR TE 1.5
Team A gives Burton, 2.01, 5.06
Team B gives 2019 1st, 2.05, 4.06
The 1st is likely a strong contender.
Team A gives Burton, 2.01, 5.06
Team B gives 2019 1st, 2.05, 4.06
The 1st is likely a strong contender.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
In SF Wentz >>>> Julio.
Sounds like this trade took place during the draft. Where were each drafted? In most SF leagues I've seen Wentz is a top 3 overall pick.
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Tau837
Footballguy
On the bolded, you mean during his two seasons to date, during which he was sharing targets with first ballot HOF TE Gates, who is no longer on the roster? IMO Henry is a clear top 3 dynasty TE right now, and his value is more likely to go up than down in 2018.Tejas said:
Tejas
Footballguy
@Just Win Baby Wasn’t much of a battle last season with Gates (.21% of Rivers targets were to TE’s, .43% to Gates, .57% to Henry), alarming is that Rivers had multiple games he didn’t even target Henry once in. 0 target games. Henry is not Zach Ertz, let alone Kelce, Gronk, Engram, or anywhere near the athlete Njoku is. We obviously all differ on our opinions of said value, but Rivers also targets RB’s .28% of the time. So yes, Henry is in direct competition with: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Ty Williams, Benjamin, Gordon, Eckler and Gates most likely will be returning this season. He’s a 2nd tier TE, where in TE premium, the point differential outside the top 3, is separated by 1.5 points from 5-12. So I’ll take the value on his hype all day.
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Dez
Footballguy
Last year Kamara and Hunt were falling to the 2.05 range had you traded your future 1st for a 2nd round pick to get 1 of them last year unless you ended up with 1.01 pick this year you are pretty happy.
How did Chargers do in those games he was not used? I'm sure you don't agree but I think they realize the mistake that was made, looked to be using him more consistently later in the season, and Whiz has run an offense that has been very TE friendly at times. It's not like Mike Martz rolled into town and they are abandoning the TE.
With the exception of Ertz, it's my honest opinion that every TE you listed above has WR's to contend with as good or better than Henry.
But to be sure you raise target concerns and it's really the only concern because he's shown to be nothing but dominant on a per target basis. I own most of these TE's on teams and got one Henry/Engram duo and was just looking at something a few weeks ago when I realized that they have both had exactly 115 targets, both similar age but that Henry's production blasts Engram's away by an amount that was a lot more than I realized.
Saying this next part more as observation then trying to talk up Henry but after I saw this I went and charted out first 115 targets of a bunch of TE's and had did so on every TE you mentioned, except Njoku of course. What was really amazing is how almost dead on similar the raw production on first 115 targets was for Graham, Gronk, Kelce and yes Henry.
Henry- 81/1,091/12
Gronk- 82/1,076/15
Graham- 79/1,061/12
Kelce- 88/1,155/7
That's crazy close production and no other TE I charted was in the ballpark of this group and that list included Ertz, Reed, Witten, Rudolph, Olsen(who is real similar to Engram), Gresham and Ebron.
You think he's a second tier talent that will never earn more targets or maybe think his per target production to date is a fluke. For what it's worth I could not find a TE as productive as Henry on his first 115 targets that did not earn more targets, but saying I did not find it does not mean it does not exist.
I got zero concerns on talent, if I thought he was a 115 target guy in 2018 I'd move him to TE1. In redraft.
https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/755473-official-post-your-2017-rookie-draft/
There are very few examples where that occurred last year. And the few times it did were almost always a league with something like a TE premium or superflex.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Picks 19 and 20 in mine. But IDP and TE premium. Behind Perrine and Zay Jones. This was back in mid May if that matters.
https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/755473-official-post-your-2017-rookie-draft/
There are very few examples where that occurred last year. And the few times it did were almost always a league with something like a TE premium or superflex.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
It's likely worth pointing out that Henry led the league in catchable target rate last season. I'm not sure it's a good practice to compare efficiency this way. Volume matters. I'm not questioning your stance on Henry; I'm just not sure this data point means much of anything.
Edit:
2017 production per 163 targets:
Marvin Jones: 92/1,679/14
Antonio Brown: 101/1,533/9
Will Fuller: 91/1,386/23
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It's really not BS. In PPR leagues Kamara was my 7th ranked player, in TE premium it ranged from 7-10 depending on TE vs RB need. My first draft of the year, about a week after the NFL draft I had pick 9 and thought Kamara was all mine if I wanted and he went 6th. Hunt 7th.
https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/755473-official-post-your-2017-rookie-draft/
There are very few examples where that occurred last year. And the few times it did were almost always a league with something like a TE premium or superflex.
I'm not just saying Kamara because he was a hit. I don't do revisionist history. I had 11 players last year graded as a first round grade in FFPC format, in almost all leagues I'd have surrendered a future first if one of those 11 was still OTC at 2.5(2.3 was latest I saw one slide in a draft I was in, which was Hunt and I got the pick but did not have to give up my first, but would have). A lot of those players, like Mike Williams (my #6 player) and the TE's don't have Kamara/Hunt kind of value and in those cases I'd have regretted the trade but I'd have done it. I'd have given up a future first for any of these 11 if they were available at 2.5 last year. That's the point I keep trying to hammer home and like I gave the example earlier when someone offered me a future first in 2014 for pick 2.7 and took Allen Robinson. It's crazy to just randomly give a future first for 2.7 so the trade that sparked this talk I can't get behind at all right now. But it's not crazy if a player you actually grade as a first round pick is available to pick at 2.7, 2.5 or whatever.
I think Henry led or was in top 5 in all kinds of PFF kind of TE rankings which is why they had him as TE2 and a top 100 player. But there is only one stat that PFF ever put out that meant anything to me, and it means a lot and that is yards per route run which I think he was second among TE's last year.
As to your Marvin/AB example I know what are you getting but I don't agree with the examples you used to try and illustrate the point you are trying to make.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
My only point is that it's not a good practice to ignore the inverse relationship between efficiency and volume. Comparing Marvin and AB's per target numbers is a perfect illustration of that.
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hunter1
Footballguy
Ditto. Cobby knows FB. I am in this league and the only thing I liked about the deal is that the defending champ gave up Cook.
I think you must have meant to quote someone else as I was not speaking to the concept of trading a 1st for the 2.5. He said you could have had Kamara or Hunt with the 2.5 last year, that IS BS. Any draft that occurred in either had a less common scoring/lineup setup like IDP or TE premium / 2QB where other positions are more heavily weighted or it was an extreme outlier. You just said that neither of those guys fell that far in your own drafts. In my own case I traded up from 11 to take Hunt in one league, and somehow Kamara fell to 11 and I was kicking myself because I liked him almost as much as Hunt.
I realize you are arguing something different here and I somewhat agree that I would support trading my 1st for a guy I was high on if he fell that far. FFPC and other high stakes leagues that I see frequently mentioned on these boards seem well suited to this strategy. Partly because of the scoring rules as well as the cutdown rules that help rebuilds if you make a mistake, and partly because I am convinced those leagues are filled with a handful of sharks, a handful of seasoned fantasy players, and a whole lot of gambling fools from whom their money is soon parted. (I kid, I kid... sorta.)
If we want to go down the rabbit hole of just a generic 2.5 or later pick for a 1st... I just looked back at my prior drafts for the last few years, and here are the only players currently of note drafted at the 2.5 or later: Kupp, Watson, Aaron Jones, Goff, Wentz, Hunter Henry, Mariota, Ajayi, Lockett, Buck Allen, Ty Montgomery, Diggs, Jeremy Hill, Crow, MBryant, McKinnon, Landry, Carr, Garoppolo, Ertz, Kelce, Jordan Reed. There's some definite hits in there, a few guys that had big to medium value early on only to fade away, and there are guys that were dropped at some point by their original drafter but later developed value and were picked up off the waiver wire. The hit rate seems to be predominantly focused on QBs & TEs as well. Even with this list, I think you could argue some of those hits may not even be worth a future 1st right now much less at the time, especially in a 1QB league.
Most of the time I have seen someone argue the "I would give a 1st for a 2nd on the clock now" the recent examples have been to bring up guys like DJ or Freeman, well they were gone prior to the 2.5 so this hypothetical trade wouldn't have landed you them either (in my leagues at least. I'm sure there are some out there where they lasted longer.) For the example you gave, ARob went 1.12 in my drafts, not even close to the 2.7. And I don't mean this to sound like my leagues are full of shark studs or anything either, just that these outlier examples are just that, outliers. Very few of us will be in a situation where someone like an ARob falls well beyond his consensus draft spot and even better, someone is willing to let us trade into that spot to take him.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Yea sorry I got some things mixed up on your response. I did mean to quote you but I thought you were saying BS on notion that anyone would have paid a future first for someone like Hunt or Kamara if they were on the board at 2.5. My bad. For what it's worth I did see Kamara last till 17 in an FFPC draft, I just was not in it, but for sure 2.5 was very rare and nothing I got to experience in a draft of mine. I do mainly play in FFPC leagues and David Johnson lasting till 2.5 and Allen Robinson till 2.7 was actually more common than not, whereas Hunt/Kamara making to 2.5 was very rare. Also I'll quickly admit I would not have given up a future first for David Johnson had he been around at 2.5, I was not high enough on him, thought a mid second was right about where I put his value that year.
One more thing is note the two drafts I referenced where this kind of trade might make sense. 2014 in what is possibly the most historically rich WR draft in history and last year which might go down as best/deepest RB draft in history. I do not recall any examples in say 2015 or 2016 where any draft I was in or saw would a give up a future first for pick 2.1, in light of what was on the board. Took incredible RB and WR drafts so for sure I think it's very rare to be in a situation where I'd actually be OTC at 2.5 and see a player I'd give up my future first to get. In fact it's never happened to me in a draft I was in.
I actually split one dynasty team with the person you quoted and I can testify that we drafted Hunt in round 2 of that draft. But to your point and Buckna's point I was not in a draft where one fell to 2.5, saw it, but was not in one.
I'd add I did 9 rookie drafts last year. I just looked this up and Hunt went second round in 4, Kamara second round in 2. So it happened in drafts but barely, 5 of those times they went in round 2 they went exactly 2.1, 2.3 the one other time.
Boston
Footballguy
Interesting deal...with the scoring I prefer the Burton side because I am high on him...you get a TE with a ton of upside and move up from overall pick 17 to 13...that is a nice area to move up 4 picks...since the #1 is a 2019 you also have a year to re-coup that pick...
ghostguy123
Footballguy
12 team PPR dynasty
Jarvis Landy
for
Juju Smith-Shuster and a 2019 1st (mid-late)
Jarvis Landy
for
Juju Smith-Shuster and a 2019 1st (mid-late)
jeaton6
Footballguy
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Why would some one make that trade now? If the Browns take Barkley he just gave away a first. I’m guessing that trade would still be available to him after the draft, but maybe I’m wrong on that.
Matt's Eagles
Footballguy
12 Team PPR
Team A got McKinnion, Galladay, Kupp
Team B got McCoy, Watkins
Team A got McKinnion, Galladay, Kupp
Team B got McCoy, Watkins
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Snorkelson
Footballguy
Traded 1.10, 2.10, 3.12
got 2019 1/2/3/4
New owner that is making a lot of moves. Could have enough talent to make the playoffs but may not have the juice for a deep run. Could still make moves to change his roster so it’s really a random spot, but I don’t think its a team that will make a deep playoff run. Of course I won last year as the last wildcard spot, so you never know. Willing to gamble that it ends up a top 6.
got 2019 1/2/3/4
New owner that is making a lot of moves. Could have enough talent to make the playoffs but may not have the juice for a deep run. Could still make moves to change his roster so it’s really a random spot, but I don’t think its a team that will make a deep playoff run. Of course I won last year as the last wildcard spot, so you never know. Willing to gamble that it ends up a top 6.
How many copies of each player in a 112 team league?!?
Even if 2-3, it's impressive to have amassed that much talent on one roster!
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
To me this price seems like it would be correct if 1) This trade occurs after the draft and 2) Cle does not draft any real competition at RB
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Here is where those two players went in my leagues. I won't list devy leagues because that doesn't give a true idea where they fall in standard PPR dynasty leagues,
https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/755473-official-post-your-2017-rookie-draft/
There are very few examples where that occurred last year. And the few times it did were almost always a league with something like a TE premium or superflex.
HyperActive 1 (active division) - Hunt 2.02 (by me), Kamara 1.07, (hyper division) - Kamara 1.07, Hunt 1.13
HyperActive 3 hyper division) - Hunt 2.02, Kamara 1.07, (active division) - Hunt 1.08, Kamara 1.11
Fantasy Legends 1 - Hunt 1.10, Kamara 2.02
Fantasy Legends 2 - Hunt 1.09, Kamara 2.04
Hall of Fame Fantasy - Hunt 1.10, Kamara 1.11
bengalbuck
Footballguy
I'm with @menobrown on this. Wouldn't trade a future 1st for 2.05 before it was on the clock.
Would absolutely consider making that kind of trade if I had a loaded team (late 1st the next year) and loved one of the players still on the board.
Paying a premium for a current year pick isn't something dynasty or real NFL teams should make a habit of doing. But nothing wrong with being aggressive to get a player you covet if the opportunity presents. From an NFL perspective, Saints did it last year moving their 2018 2nd for a 2017 3rd that they used to select Alvin Kamara.
Would absolutely consider making that kind of trade if I had a loaded team (late 1st the next year) and loved one of the players still on the board.
Paying a premium for a current year pick isn't something dynasty or real NFL teams should make a habit of doing. But nothing wrong with being aggressive to get a player you covet if the opportunity presents. From an NFL perspective, Saints did it last year moving their 2018 2nd for a 2017 3rd that they used to select Alvin Kamara.
Tejas
Footballguy
JackReacher
Footballguy
I prefer the JuJu side, but not sure the way these responses lean.
Matt's Eagles
Footballguy
Lol....12 teamHow many copies of each player in a 112 team league?!?
Even if 2-3, it's impressive to have amassed that much talent on one roster!
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Matt's Eagles
Footballguy
12 Team PPR, .15 PPC, 1.25 PPR for WR, 1.5 PPR for TE, plus TE yardage bonus
Team A got 1.1, Amari Cooper, OJ Howard, 2019 2nd rounder
Team B got Melvin Gordon, D Hopkins, 1.8, 2019 3rd rounder
Team A got 1.1, Amari Cooper, OJ Howard, 2019 2nd rounder
Team B got Melvin Gordon, D Hopkins, 1.8, 2019 3rd rounder
Barkley over Gordon, Hopkins over Cooper, Howard for 1.8 is probably pretty close. Honestly not sure which side I would take. Big fan of Barkley but have never really believed the hype on Cooper.
Guess I'll take the Hopkins side and hope that the chargers don't like into the RB position to much with Gordon only being okay. But I'd say it's a very close and fair for both sides
