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Official FFA 2014 Midterms- GOP wins Senate, victories everywhere (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter timschochet
- Start date
timschochet
Footballguy
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
The Commish
Footballguy
You missed my point hump....it's not more/less unfathomable from our (citizen) point of view. It's SSDD really. What's unfathomable is that given the INCREDIBLY LOW BAR we as a country have set, the dems can't rise to it and stay "in control".
timschochet
Footballguy
Tuesday night may be very long . Whole most of these races lean Republican , a lot are very tight .
oso diablo
Footballguy
timschochet
Footballguy
In Louisiana, Cassidy leads Landrieu in a head to head by 5 points, 50 to 45. But when we add in the 3rd party candidate, it becomes, Landrieu 44, Cassidy 36, Maness 15. Which means that after tomorrow night there will be a runoff between Landrieu and Cassidy, and Landrieu will have some time (not much) to try to narrow the gap. Can she?
The Ref
Footballguy
On The Rocks
Evil Conservative
Yes - always interesting to watch Chris Matthews come unglued - even when the left is winning.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
I guess anything is possible but my guess is the runoff will have even lower turnout which will help the GOP even more. Bill Jefferson, a longstanding oft-elected black Rep even got unseated by a Gopper in Orleans one time (albeit after several ethical er lapses...). My guess is if Mary gets just 44 in the primary that's her ceiling and she could even go as low as 39-42 in the runoff. More likely she gets maybe 47 in the primary which would be considered awesome up front but in reality again that would be her ceiling. The general consensus is she absolutely has to get to 50.1 with a big turnout effort in the primary to win. And there are tons of signs everywhere etc. so the push is on but the vibe is poor and her family's tense relationship with the black political groups in New Orleans are not helping the situation.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
timschochet
Footballguy
It's a terrible idea, for many reasons.
But beyond whether a specific idea is good or bad, I don't believe there will ever be another change to the Constitution in either our lifetime or those of our children. Just too difficult.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Yeah I'm not in favor of the BBA either. I would like to see some rules changes like requiring any spending bill must specify a source of revenue to support it, which is something a lot of states and municipalities have.
I will add Constitutional Conventions are particularly problematic, once they start ANYTHING can happen. Terrible idea that.
The main thing that concerns me is the Bill of Rights and/or the first 10 amendments. To me any attempts to regulate our fundamental rights in any way must be sternly resisted.
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Steve Tasker
Footballguy
I heard some stat earlier today that something like the last 6 second-term presidents who had a senate majority for the first half of their second-term all lost that senate majority during the second-term midterms. I don't have the exact numbers, I heard it on NPR.
timschochet
Footballguy
So much money is being spent on this election...just amazing. Citizens United, for better or worse, has completely changed the landscape.
How has it changed? Every election you get completely bombarded with radio, tv, signs and phone calls. Seems pretty typical, Most every ad ties the local candidate to Obama and his liberal agenda.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
It's all about the political consultants. That is where a good deal of public and campaign money gets funneled into private hands, even back into the politicians' pockets. CU did not affect this. I would think that campaign spending has been going up up up without CU in place for 30+ years now at least.
Cjw_55106
Footballguy
I shouldnt be surprised I guess, but I am. Republicans have accussed a Dem of voting with Obama 97% of the time...nothing unusual there. Last night I saw an ad where the guy said it wasnt true and named bills he voted against Obama. I understand the Obama numbers arent great, but this is the first time ive seen a member of the same party try to distance himself so openly from the president.
It is really not odd that Tim singles out a conservative group in his blame. Just another instance.
cstu
Footballguy
cstu
Footballguy
avoiding injuries
Footballguy
It's been a pretty common trend. KY hopeful Grimes would not answer whether she voted for Obama, even though she's a democrat. http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/13/politics/grimes-mcconnell-kentucky-senate-debate/
I thought that Capaign Finance Reform act was one of the more vulgar assault on Free Speech ever attempted. So yes, the decision was good for Free Speech.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
If you stop and think about, this isn't coincidence. During the midterms of a president's second term, his party is having to defend Senate seats that they won six years ago, when the president was elected for the first time. If he had any coattails, his party will have won some seats in marginal states that maybe they wouldn't have won under "normal" conditions. They naturally give some of those seats back at the same point in every presidential life-cycle.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
This happened with Mary Landrieu in LA too. In LA they're also running an anti-Landrieu ad with Obama's comments on the Sharpton radio show rightfully talking about how loyal these pols have been to his agenda. Of course he just thought he was talking to the base there.
avoiding injuries
Footballguy
What's been the reaction down there after her comments about the south not being receptive to blacks and women? Just a move out of desperation?
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Pretty muted I'd say. I don't think it has particularly outraged whites and I don't think it has particularly motivated blacks. - She just doubled down by reaffirming what she said. Personally I think it's calculated to drive the black vote so she feels it's a plus. But racial politics has changed in NO (which is really where turnout is driven very very late in races). Her family used to be considered aligned with black political groups. Now they are at odds because her brother Mitch is mayor of the city and there is a sense that the black political groups' influence has been diminished because of Mitch. But in reality the influence has waned in general. It seems like an old ploy pulled out in the wrong era and if I had to generalize I'd say people in all circles feel it's a bit hackneyed at this point.
No matter what happens it will be really interesting to see the late black turnout because there is definitely a push and it has worked for her before.
timschochet
Footballguy
link to where I laid blame to anything? I didn't even express an opinion, except to marvel on how much money is being spent. And it's not being spent so much by the campaigns themselves, but by private groups with unnamed donors. That's where CU has made such a difference. But I never stated whether or not this was good or bad. Truth is I'm not sure. Also I'm pretty sure just as much is being spent by both sides (at least it's pretty close).
The Ref
Footballguy
The three top TV nights of all time were the Mash final episode, the final episode of The Sopranos and MSNBC the night that Scott Brown won the Ted Kennedy seat in the middle of the Obamacare negotiations.
timschochet
Footballguy
So many interesting stories tonight...should be fun. Right now the experts say the odds are about 70-30 Republicans win.
Question: doubt this happens, but in the event McConnell loses to Grimes, but the GOP still wins, who becomes head of the Senate?
Question: doubt this happens, but in the event McConnell loses to Grimes, but the GOP still wins, who becomes head of the Senate?
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
I think it would be Cornyn:
http://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/senators/a_three_sections_with_teasers/leadership.htm
Btw people always forget that Pat Leahy is actually President Pro Tempore for the Senate, not Reid.
CBusAlex
Footballguy
timschochet
Footballguy
This Ernst woman in Iowa sounds like a huge embarrassment.
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SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
I do believe Iowa is where the Democrats have gone full tea party and gone about insulting farmers (see your OP) and women....
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The Commish
Footballguy
That was "proven" well before Obama's time. However, he did take it to a new level. Didn't seem necessary though, especially the second time around.
mcintyre1
Footballguy
Believe me, the Republicans won't like what would come out of a constitutional convention.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
The last four Presidents who served two full terms, Eisenhower, Reagan, Clinton and Bush, all faced a Congress held by the opposition party for the final two years of their presidency.
Throw in that Mitt won the states with Senate races this year by an average of 7% and Dems were always swimming upstream.
If nothing else the next couple years will frame 2016 nicely.
Throw in that Mitt won the states with Senate races this year by an average of 7% and Dems were always swimming upstream.
If nothing else the next couple years will frame 2016 nicely.
timschochet
Footballguy
i think that, in terms of the President, 2016 is already well framed , frankly. Hillary will win in a landslide over whoever. It won't even be interesting.
Gawain
Footballguy
timschochet
Footballguy
not like 2006 at all. There was no successor in the GOP to Bush.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
dhockster
Footballguy
Tim, I am not saying Hilary is not going to win. But doesn't the fact that she is a terrible campaigner and not the most likable person give you some doubt about her ability to win in 2016?
