*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (3 Viewers)

[Dezbelief]

I keep reading about the Czech and Polish push to secure artillery ammo, but then I also read that the Ukrainians have none left. What's up? Is the Czech plan in motion and it's taking time to get ammo to the front lines or something?

I'm not sure, but it sounded like they were trying to round up enough cash to buy everything in one transaction.

 

[themeistersinger]

I keep reading about the Czech and Polish push to secure artillery ammo, but then I also read that the Ukrainians have none left. What's up? Is the Czech plan in motion and it's taking time to get ammo to the front lines or something?

I'm not sure, but it sounded like they were trying to round up enough cash to buy everything in one transaction.

Yeah, there's a difference between a commitment and having cash on hand

 

[Chadstroma]

I keep reading about the Czech and Polish push to secure artillery ammo, but then I also read that the Ukrainians have none left. What's up? Is the Czech plan in motion and it's taking time to get ammo to the front lines or something?

I'm not sure, but it sounded like they were trying to round up enough cash to buy everything in one transaction.

Yeah, there's a difference between a commitment and having cash on hand

Yea, the Czech's are a middle man, getting access to this ammo from sources who otherwise wouldn't want to directly be involved. But they need cash to make the transaction go down.

 

[themeistersinger]

Putin's War, Week 112. Ukraine Funding Passes and ATACMS Hit Crimea

https://redstate.com/streiff/2024/04/20/putins-war-week-112-n2172657

 

[themeistersinger]

On Ukraine’s ‘Transparent Battlefield,’ There Are Few Places Left to Hide

One of the most important concepts to emerge from Ukraine is that of the “transparent battlefield”. It refers to an environment in which tactical and operational information is made available in real-time to personnel on the ground, their commanding officers, and strategic decision makers.

www.19fortyfive.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Ukraine's obsolete S-200 missile systems reportedly back on track to hit Russian targets

The first Russian Tu-22M3 long-range strategic bomber was reportedly shot down by Ukraine and crashed over Russia's Stavropol Krai overnight on April 19. The aircraft was carrying out a combat mission when a Soviet-era S-200 anti-aircraft system shot it down, an intelligence source told the...

kyivindependent.com

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russian Tu-22M3 Backfire Shot Down With S-200 Missile: Ukraine’s Spy Chief

Kyiv claims that the swing-wing bomber was brought down nearly 200 miles from the Ukrainian border by a modified S-200 air defense system.

www.twz.com

A Ukrainian defense official confirmed to TWZ that Ukraine had received “help from partners” to produce an updated guidance system for the S-200. “The missile itself has a good maneuvering system, so if provided with proper guidance is quite a modern weapon,” the official added.

Ukraine attacks Russia’s energy infrastructure with drones

Moscow said it shot down 50 Ukrainian drones overnight.

www.politico.eu

Ukraine launched a series of drone attacks against eight Russian regions overnight, the Defense Ministry in Moscow said on Saturday.

The attacks appeared to target Russia’s energy infrastructure, according to an Associated Press report. An intelligence source told Reuters that long-range strike drones hit three power stations and set a fuel depot on fire. Reuters quoted Russia’s Belgorod governor as saying that two civilians were killed.

NATO has air defense systems ready for Ukraine, Stoltenberg says

Announcements are expected “in the near future,” the NATO Secretary General said after Zelenskyy met with defense ministers.

www.politico.eu

NATO countries confirmed Friday they have available air defense systems that can be sent to Ukraine, the alliance's chief said.

Announcements are expected "in the near future," Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told the media after a virtual meeting between Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and NATO defense ministers.

UK MoD confirms the Tu-22M3 loss: https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1781584110286221797

French Crotale air defense system at work: https://twitter.com/magictouch190/status/1781723832178339956

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/19/russia-weapons-production-ukraine-war/?itid=sf_world_ukraine-russia_top-table-NOT-live_p001_f002

By recalibrating its economy on a war footing, forcing existing facilities to work in overdrive to produce or refurbish older equipment, and buying parts from Iran, China and North Korea, Russia has made a surprising recovery from its early losses in Ukraine.
“Russia is not producing more of its modern fighting equipment,” said Nikolai Kulbaka, a Russian economist. “But it has been making a lot more of simpler working equipment, rifles, shells, mass weapons for mass soldiers.”

In recent months, top Russian officials, including Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, have claimed record numbers, reporting to Putin that the military-industrial complex has quadrupled production of armored vehicles, quintupled the supply of tanks and boosted manufacturing of drones and artillery shells by nearly 17 times.
These numbers, including a claim that 1,500 tanks were built in 2023, cannot be verified because the government does not disclose statistics about military production and the costs of the war and because the military often uses creative accounting, conflating new and rebuilt materiel, to show positive results.
“My impression is that Shoigu’s numbers and the figure of 1,500 tanks supplied over 2023 is technically correct, but it also includes refurbished stuff,” said Michael Gjerstad, land warfare analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a London-based think tank. “There could also be a percentage of tanks that are being cannibalized and their parts used to make other tanks, which could also be added into the statistics.”
Gjerstad said he believes Russia can manufacture up to 330 tanks a year but is actually building half that. Still, Russia managed to replenish about 1,140 tanks that it is estimated to have lost in 2023 by dusting off and refurbishing old armor taken from storage.
Experts note that the supply of existing gear is limited and that a key challenge for Russia is to develop capacity to build new fighting vehicles when it runs out of old models to upgrade.

In Ukraine, drones — or unmanned aerial vehicles — are even more vital than tanks.
To increase supply, Russia struck a deal with Iran to set up a factory for Shahed drones in Tatarstan, about 500 miles east of Moscow, and has pushed for a major increase in production of Russia’s Lancet self-detonating drone, manufactured by a subsidiary of Russian arms giant Kalashnikov Concern.
“They’ve been converting old shopping centers into drone production facilities, where they were apparently able to scale up the production quite a bit,” said Fabian Hinz, a drone expert with IISS.
“Russia doesn’t have to become the most innovative army in the world,” Hinz added. “If they managed to get a few systems that work well, like the Lancet, and then they managed to just brutally force through production, that’s already dangerous enough.”

 

[Chadstroma]

House passes Ukraine aid bill

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Finnish military Chief: https://twitter.com/minna_alander/status/1781686899863683217

Interesting interview with the new @Finnchod.

Q about other Nordic CHODs’ warnings about timelines for a Russian attack on NATO & why he isn’t issuing similar warnings: “they say it’s a possibility. Of course it’s always a possibility, but the question is its probability”
Jaakkola continues that he doesn’t think a Russian attack on NATO is *probable* in the near future. He doesn’t consider a similar wake-up call necessary in Finland as Finnish defence thinking has always included the *possibility* of a Russian attack and is therefore prepared
On Ukraine, Jaakkola says that the general speculation is a new large summer offensive by Russia to reach an as good as possible military situation to then start pushing for political talks about Ukraine’s and the West’s concessions.
On lessons learned from Ukraine with drones: the conditions in northern Finland are challenging for the technologies, as it’s often dark, rainy, misty, or “unbelievably cold”. Therefore Finland needs a balanced air defence consisting of many systems

Ukraine to mass produce "Shmavic," domestic replacement for Chinese DJI Mavic UAV - Euromaidan Press

Ukrainian company developed "Shmavic" - domestic analogue of Chinese DJI Mavic drone popular with military. Indigenous drone cheaper, more resilient against EW, coming soon to Ukrainian armed forces. Serial production coming soon.

euromaidanpress.com

Ukraine has developed and is preparing to launch serial production of “Shmavic,” a domestic military drone analogous to the hugely popular civilian Chinese DJI Mavic UAV extensively used by Ukrainian forces on the frontlines, Forbes reported.

Ukrainian forces use a very wide range of drones, but the small cheap Chinese DJI Mavic remains the most popular. At the tactical level, small drones enable the Ukrainian military to survey the battlefield. Given the ammunition shortage, they serve as a form of “pocket artillery” for the Armed Forces, according to Valerii Yakovenko, co-founder of the DroneUA group of companies.

Yet China’s ambiguous position in the Russo-Ukrainian war erodes the Ukrainian army’s trust in Chinese drones. Meanwhile, Mavic’s manufacturer has repeatedly asserted that it only produces drones for civilian use, not for combat.

According to Forbes, the “Shmavic” is the creation of an unnamed Ukrainian company that has been manufacturing drones for various purposes, including bomber drones, since 2017. Over a year of dedicated effort and the company’s investment exceeding $500,000 went into the development of this crucial piece of military hardware.

Compared to the Chinese Mavic, the Ukrainian “Shmavic” boasts several significant advantages tailored for the harsh realities of modern warfare. Its rugged design makes it highly resistant to damage, allowing for repairs and maintenance even under demanding field conditions. Furthermore, the drone incorporates an integrated payload system capable of carrying two munitions weighing up to 500 grams each.

In terms of flight performance, the “Shmavic” can remain airborne for 75 to 80 minutes without any payloads, depending on flight conditions. Even when carrying its maximum payload capacity, it can operate for up to 35 minutes within a 15-kilometer radius on a single battery charge. But perhaps its most crucial edge lies in its enhanced resilience against enemy electronic warfare systems, providing a much-needed layer of protection for Ukrainian forces.

The “Shmavic” is priced at around $3,500 for a complete set, which includes the drone itself, a smart controller with a 10-inch screen, five batteries, spare propellers, a charging station, cables, and repair tools. This price point is comparable to the popular Chinese DJI Mavic model, making the Ukrainian drone an affordable and attractive option.
The company behind the “Shmavic” has ambitious production plans. With part of the manufacturing process taking place in Poland, where components like motors, control systems, and eventually proprietary cameras will be produced, the planned facilities can churn out up to 5,000 “Shmavic” drones per month. An initial production run of 500 units per month is slated to begin on 1 June.

According to the developers, the “Shmavic” is designed to meet the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ estimated annual requirement of 50,000 to 60,000 Mavic-class drones. Currently, the drone is undergoing final testing, and the company awaits the signing of a government contract.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/04/19/ukraine-us-weapons-house-aid-bill/

It will take the Pentagon less than a week to deliver some weapons to Ukrainian units who have been forced to ration artillery and air defense rounds, officials say

 

[massraider]

House passes Ukraine aid bill

By 200 votes as well, I think.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1781745978099269886

As far as Ukraine's shell deliveries are concerned, should start within few weeks. But a lot of other stuff isn't even ordered, let alone manufactured. And air defence missiles - another thing entirely. Putin meanwhile won't be wasting time. Next weeks will be ugly.

Germany Weighs $1.3 Billion Patriot Air-Defense System Purchase

Germany is looking at buying four additional Patriot missile-defense systems at a cost of as much as €1.2 billion ($1.3 billion) on top of the four Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government ordered in March.

www.bloomberg.com

Germany is looking at buying four additional Patriot missile-defense systems at a cost of as much as €1.2 billion ($1.3 billion) on top of the four Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government ordered in March.
The plans are at an early stage and officials are still assessing how to finance the expanded order, which could lift the overall price tag to about €2.6 billion, according to people familiar with the plans, who asked not to be identified discussing confidential information.

EDF colonel: Frontline situation difficult as Russian troops advance

Russian troops have made advances of five kilometers, while the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been forced to cede areas that are not conducive for defensive actions, said Col. Ants Kiviselg, commander of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) Intelligence Center. However, there is no sign of a...

news.err.ee

Russian troops have made advances of five kilometers, while the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been forced to cede areas that are not conducive for defensive actions, said Col. Ants Kiviselg, commander of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) Intelligence Center. However, there is no sign of a collapse, he added.

"The situation on the Ukrainian front is difficult. The number of attacks by Russian troops has risen in recent days and now totals up to 90 attacks per day in all directions. Russian forces have made some progress in recent days with a tactical breakthrough north-west of Avdiivka, and have advanced by as much as five kilometers in the last week," Col. Kiviselg said.

He added that Russian troops have been continuing to exert pressure on Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast. Col. Kivisieg said that the attacks show the continued persistence of the Russian Federation and put the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which are increasingly in need of Western assistance, particularly ammunition, in a difficult situation. However, at the moment, he said, there were no signs of an unplanned retreat by Ukrainian forces or a collapse of the front.

"Unfortunately, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are gradually being forced to relinquish control of areas that are not conducive to defensive actions or that threaten the freedom of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to conduct defensive maneuvers," Col. Kiviselg said.

https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1781746268739448975

A Ukrainian soldier texts from Donbas:

- The whole unit was watching. After the vote, one could hear all over the trench: “YESSS!”

Thank you!

 

[Chadstroma]

House passes Ukraine aid bill

By 200 votes as well, I think.

Yes, Republicans were roughly split (I think a slight majority yes) and then Democrats were all in favor.... with one present (not sure if that was R or D)

Senate should get it done quickly and Biden has said he will sign right away. A good amount of aid is supposedly pre-positioned to be quickly delivered.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

I keep reading about the Czech and Polish push to secure artillery ammo, but then I also read that the Ukrainians have none left. What's up? Is the Czech plan in motion and it's taking time to get ammo to the front lines or something?

It's in motion, but it will take time. Seems like the first deliveries could happen as early as June.

The full Czech plan itself is half funded. This is for 1.5 million shells total.

It appears that 500,000 shells have been contracted to this point.

PM Fiala this week: https://www.hudson.org/events/prime...antic-relations-war-ukraine-us-czech-alliance

The latest success is the so-called Czech ammunition initiative, it is based on the premise that, until western countries can produce enough ammunition, we must secure it from third countries. The purpose of our initiative is to find ammunition on world markets, to negotiate the financing and to potentially coordinate deliveries to Ukraine. We have the know-how, we have contacts, we have experience, and we can effectively organize this assistance. I’m glad that, at this moment, about 20 countries already joined our initiative from Canada, Germany and the Netherlands to Poland. Thanks to them, we can now provide 500,000 rounds of artillery ammunition, we believe that more deliveries will follow. There is no reason why we cannot deliver 1 million more in the next 12 months.

 

[themeistersinger]

UK intelligence analyses downing of Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bomber

The Defence Intelligence of the United Kingdom has studied reports of the downing of a Tu-22M3 strategic bomber on 19 April 2024.

www.pravda.com.ua

 

[The Z Machine]

House passes Ukraine aid bill

By 200 votes as well, I think.

What the **** took them so long???

 

[culdeus]

Is there a thread here with a more overdue thread title update?

 

[Chadstroma]

House passes Ukraine aid bill

By 200 votes as well, I think.

What the **** took them so long???

Politics. I think that is about as much as we can say around these parts.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Relieved by US progress on Ukraine aid, Europe grapples with its own support for Kyiv

Estonia and Sweden are among European countries warning against complacency, as EU foreign ministers are set to discuss Ukraine on Monday.

www.politico.eu

A senior Ukrainian officer greeted the news of the vote with a monosyllabic “great.” But when asked how long replenishments would take to reach the frontlines, he said it depended on many factors. "Implementation could take weeks and delivery months,” said the official, who was granted anonymity to speak freely.

Ukrainian leaders and military officials suspect Russia will launch an offensive in June or July and they say the recent targeting of Ukraine’s infrastructure has been a pre-offensive campaign.

Ukraine faces race against time to deploy US funding

Tough weeks ahead for Kyiv in its fight to stem Russian advances despite passage of long-awaited bill from Washington

www.ft.com

Western and Ukrainian officials said some of the material assistance, including arms and ammunition, was already packaged in depots in Poland and elsewhere in Europe and ready to be transported.
But the delivery of the US aid is unlikely to dramatically alter Kyiv’s situation on the frontline, according to Ukrainian officials, soldiers and military analysts.

Troops on the frontline told the Financial Times during a visit this month that they were barely holding on under relentless Russian attacks to which they were unable to respond in kind.
“I hope it will turn the page in favour of us in this war,” said First Lieutenant Ivan Skuratovsky of the fresh aid, whose unit is operating American artillery systems at the frontline in the eastern Donetsk region, but is short of ammunition.
But the influx of arms, particularly much-needed artillery shells and munitions for air defence systems “will help to slow down the Russian advance, but not stop it,” one senior Ukrainian official told the FT on the condition of anonymity to speak frankly about the battlefield situation.
And Ukrainians are under no illusions that the American assistance will see the country through to the end of the war.
“Such a large aid package may be the last this year. Moreover, there is a fairly high probability that all subsequent aid packages for Ukraine will be much smaller in size,” said a former Ukrainian officer who operates the analytical group Frontelligence Insight.
“The aid provided by the US buys us and the European Union time, about one year,” the group’s assessment said.
Rob Lee, a military analyst and senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia Program, said that even with the new American assistance, “Russia will still have an artillery advantage, it just won’t be as great”.

The US assistance package, which is certain to provide artillery shells, the senior Ukrainian official said, “does not contain a silver bullet”.
But Andriy Zagorodnyuk, director of the Kyiv-based security think-tank Centre for Defence Strategies and a former defence minister of Ukraine, said he believed the US aid was “a bullet enough” to kill Russia’s momentum.
But this will address only one major challenge facing Ukraine, he admitted. Kyiv faces another big challenge: manpower.
“I think manpower may be the key to how the war unfolds in 2025,” said Lee.
Russia is at present able to mobilise about 30,000 soldiers each month, according to US and Ukrainian estimates, or enough to at least cover its massive battlefield loss.

“It’s fair to ask if this ammunition will arrive in time to help Ukraine hold Chasiv Yar,” Lee said, referring to the strategic eastern town that sits on a hillside just 15km west of Bakhmut, the city captured by Russian forces last May.

Ukraine losing Chasiv Yar would allow Russian troops “fire control” over nearby strategic cities and give them a foothold from which they could launch new attacks deeper into Ukraine, Ukrainian commanders said.

Video: https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1781968599243989420

️Testing Ukrainian FPV-kamikaze with computer vision. The video shows that the drone automatically recognizes the silhouettes of people and has the ability to track the selected target.

https://twitter.com/HoansSolo/status/1781972622789501049

Some brief thoughts on the new aid package:

-artillery ammo deliveries should soon be in place to support a defensive-oriented strategy for next ~12 months.

-air defense ammo/launcher situation will remain challenging for many months to come, which will seek to exploit.
- as @Tatarigami_UA notes below, the new aid package gives Ukraine about a year to resource & implement a viable theory of success against Russia's military aggression. This includes finding a solution to the most pressing deficit in s AF: manpower.
- the new aid package also gives Europe some temporary breathing space to ramp up air/artillery ammo production & launchers (for certain ammo categories there won't be a substitute for deliveries). We should see a noticeable increase in industrial output in late fall/winter.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1781863751030890858

Updated map and summary from @Deepstate_UA, Russian forces have captured most of Novomykhailivka, and advanced west of Marinka. There is also a risk of a pocket forming south of Pervomaiske. Russian forces continue to press around Chasiv Yar, Ocheretyne, and elsewhere.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Shells in possibly 2 weeks:

The consequences for Ukraine will be nearly immediate, preventing serious setbacks on the battlefield in the near term and undercutting Russia’s long-term belief that its war economy—it is devoting at least 6% of GDP to defence—is an unstoppable juggernaut. America is planning to send $61bn to Ukraine in total. The vast majority of that will be spent on lethal aid by replenishing American military stockpiles, allowing more to be given away, and procuring new weapons and ammunition from American arms firms. The first priority is desperately needed shells. An American three-star general has already been assigned the job of organising arms deliveries, subject to the vote. The Pentagon should be able to start getting shells to Ukraine within two weeks, reckons Michael Kofman of the Carnegie Endowment, a think-tank, and can supply enough to last for a year or so. Larger weapons systems will take much longer to ship; some still need to be ordered, let alone manufactured. The hope is that it will be enough to fend off a larger-scale Russian offensive that Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military-intelligence service, has said he expects in June.

After Congress finally does pass new funding, this is how the US can rush weapons to Ukraine

The Pentagon can get weapons moving to Ukraine quickly once Congress passes a long-delayed aid bill.

apnews.com

According to a U.S. military official, the U.S. would be able to send certain munitions “almost immediately” to Ukraine because storehouses exist in Europe.

Among the weapons that could go very quickly are the 155 mm rounds and other artillery, along with some air defense munitions. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss preparations not yet made public.

After the Supplemental, Ukraine’s Path Forward

After a recent trip to Ukraine, Max Bergmann argues that Ukraine needs additional U.S. weaponry and ammunition if the country is to stop Russian advances on the battlefield and leave open the route to a second Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2025.

www.csis.org

The supplemental funding will thus give Ukraine a huge boost. But to turn the tide of the war, Ukraine and its partners will also need to take a number of steps.

First, Ukraine needs to use 2024 to rebuild its force for the long war. The supplemental funding is critical to this effort, as it will provide the equipment and resources to provide robust training to its new forces. Ukrainians rushed to join the armed forces in the wake of the invasion, increasing the numbers of the Ukrainian army. But the force is now running on fumes. Ukraine has not done subsequent rounds of mobilization, as the government has sought to spare its 20-something generation. Yet the soldiers on the front lines are exhausted and need rotation—replacements are needed. To do this, Ukraine needs to not only launch a huge round of conscription but do so in a sustainable way, where rotation off the front is routinized.

Second, European nations need to ramp up production now. There is little Europe can do presently to backfill for the loss of aid from the United States. Europeans simply do not have the stocks, and their defense industrial production, while increasing, is nowhere near where it should be to effectively support Ukraine. Europe’s goal should be to put itself in a position to potentially fill a future gap left by the United States should it not pass another supplemental. Thus, Europe has less than a year to ramp up production, particularly of ammunition for both artillery and air defense, to ensure Ukraine’s survival. Should U.S. aid continue beyond 2025, Ukraine will find itself relatively flush with munitions and capabilities, as both the United States and Europe will have ramped up production and could provide significant support.

Third, the United States and Europe should go after Russian oil. This will almost certainly not happen before the elections given the political sensitivity of U.S. politics to gas prices. But the United States and Europe are now better placed to go after the Russian energy sector in a more holistic and determined way than at the start of the conflict. The oil price cap imposed against Russia may have deprived the country of some revenue and created some logistical headaches for Moscow, but ultimately Russia was still able to overcome the obstacles, sell oil on the global market, and accumulate vast revenues used to support its war effort. Russia is pumping enormous sums of government revenue into the defense industry, as well as using significant funds to incentivize recruitment and buy the support of those with loved ones killed in the war. The United States and Europe should plan a massive economic offensive against the Russian oil sector in 2025 to curtail these activities.

The timing is becoming right to hit the oil sector. First, inflation throughout the world is much lower than it was in 2022 and 2023, meaning that the global economy—and the U.S. economy, in particular—can better absorb an increase in oil prices without experiencing or causing runaway inflation. Second, U.S. domestic oil production has ramped up over the past two years, thereby increasing global supply. Third, electric vehicle production and supporting infrastructure is more developed. Higher oil prices could benefit the green transition and accelerate electric vehicle adoption. Fourth, elections for much of the world will be out of the way by the end of 2024, limiting the potential global political backlash, given voter sensitivity to higher oil prices. But most importantly, hitting Russian revenue in 2025 could significantly handicap the Russian war effort, just when Ukraine is ready to potentially hit back at Russian forces.

 

[culdeus]

Watching Mark rober video this week sort of made me wonder when we start seeing people flying drones into events and blowing themselves up. Seems a definite possibility

 

[Chadstroma]

Watching Mark rober video this week sort of made me wonder when we start seeing people flying drones into events and blowing themselves up. Seems a definite possibility

My guess is that large venues and events will start to have jammers stationed in the not too distant future... or maybe that will happen after the first time something like that happens. I think the one complicated thing is that I believe those jammers screw up cell phones too so that might be an obstacle.

 

[culdeus]

Watching Mark rober video this week sort of made me wonder when we start seeing people flying drones into events and blowing themselves up. Seems a definite possibility

My guess is that large venues and events will start to have jammers stationed in the not too distant future... or maybe that will happen after the first time something like that happens. I think the one complicated thing is that I believe those jammers screw up cell phones too so that might be an obstacle.

You get networks wanting to fly them in for just the video content too. No idea how you deconflict it.

 

[Chadstroma]

Watching Mark rober video this week sort of made me wonder when we start seeing people flying drones into events and blowing themselves up. Seems a definite possibility

My guess is that large venues and events will start to have jammers stationed in the not too distant future... or maybe that will happen after the first time something like that happens. I think the one complicated thing is that I believe those jammers screw up cell phones too so that might be an obstacle.

You get networks wanting to fly them in for just the video content too. No idea how you deconflict it.

Prob will not until something happens.

 

[The Z Machine]

Watching Mark rober video this week sort of made me wonder when we start seeing people flying drones into events and blowing themselves up. Seems a definite possibility

What a bleak future.

 

[beer 30]

I keep reading about the Czech and Polish push to secure artillery ammo, but then I also read that the Ukrainians have none left. What's up? Is the Czech plan in motion and it's taking time to get ammo to the front lines or something?

I'm not sure, but it sounded like they were trying to round up enough cash to buy everything in one transaction.

Yeah, there's a difference between a commitment and having cash on hand

Yea, the Czech's are a middle man, getting access to this ammo from sources who otherwise wouldn't want to directly be involved. But they need cash to make the transaction go down.

House passes Ukraine aid bill

Really looking forward to the "Lord of War" sequel that will come out of this conflict

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Greece and Spain under pressure to provide Ukraine with air defence systems

Kyiv renews plea for Patriot and S-300 systems at meeting of foreign and defence ministers

www.ft.com

Other EU leaders used a summit in Brussels last week to personally urge Spanish and Greek prime ministers Pedro Sánchez and Kyriakos Mitsotakis to donate some of their systems to Ukraine, according to people briefed on the discussions.
The two leaders, whose armed forces possess between them more than a dozen Patriot systems plus others such as S-300s, were told their need was not as great as Ukraine’s and that they did not face any imminent threat.
“We all know who has them, we all know where they are, and we all know who really needs them,” said one of the people.
The pressure to donate systems intensified at a meeting of foreign and defence ministers of the EU’s 27 member states in Luxembourg on Monday. Ukraine’s foreign affairs minister Dmytro Kuleba and defence minister Rustem Umerov joined the meeting via videoconference.
Kyiv is understood to be particularly interested in Greece’s ageing S-300 systems, which Ukrainian forces already have in their arsenal and are experienced with.
“There are countries that are not in immediate need of their air defence systems, to be very honest,” said one EU diplomat. “Each country is being asked to decide what it can spare.”

Ukraine’s Race to Hold the Line

The days of lightning battlefield breakthroughs may be over. With Russia preparing to make a big push, the Ukrainians can do little but dig in.

www.nytimes.com

The Ukrainian government has allocated about $800 million to building fortifications along about 600 miles of front line this year, and construction is well underway.
The defenses shown above are just a small part of what Ukraine has been putting in place, much of which can be seen in publicly available satellite imagery from Copernicus, part of the European Union’s space program.
American military analysts in Wiesbaden, Germany, drawing on satellite imagery and other intelligence, have been working closely with Ukrainian liaison officers to identify gaps in Ukraine’s defenses, officials say.
Since the start of the year, Ukraine has built long defensive lines across two regions in the south, Kherson and Zaporizhia.

As well as the new defenses in the south, Pentagon officials and independent analysts also pointed to ones beyond Avdiivka in the east.
The Ukrainian military is eager to prevent a repeat of what happened around Avdiivka in February, after that city was captured by the Russians. Meager Ukrainian defenses allowed the enemy to keep pushing west.
So far, four officials said in interviews, the results have been mixed. A robust, multilayer tiered defense is still weeks away, if not months, they said.

But on the ground, it has not been easy.
On the outskirts of one embattled town, Chasiv Yar, exhausted troops are holding onto terrain around a canal. But their defenses are poorly constructed and should have been fortified with concrete months ago, a Ukrainian commander said.
Now the Russians are close to fighting street to street.
The defenses going up in eastern Ukraine are markedly different from many of those in the south. In place of broad defensive lines are installations meant to fortify urban areas that are in Russia’s sights.
One of them is Kurakhove.
The city lies on a main road 10 miles northeast of Marinka, which Russia began trying to capture in 2014, when it was making incursions into Ukrainian territory.
Marinka finally fell late last year. Satellite imagery now shows Ukraine working to protect Kurakhove.
This effort indicates that the Ukrainians are directing their resources to the most defensible terrain, with the idea of making ground advances as costly as possible for Russia.
The defenses also point to a strategy across much of the front line that involves keeping Russian forces off guard with small attacks and seeking to exploit flaws in their defenses, officials said.
For now, with minefields and fortifications making it difficult to attack and maneuver without big losses, both sides are relying heavily on well-prepared entrenchments.
These can include deep trenches fortified with cement, overhead protection, heating and sleeping areas. They require extensive manpower to build and to defend. With Ukraine’s ranks thinned by casualties, it remains unclear if it is up to the task.

James Rands, a military analyst with Janes, a defense intelligence company in London, said the defenses Ukraine built during earlier conflicts with Russia were exceptional. In Donbas, he said, the bunkers were dry and protected with overhead cover, fire-proofing and ballistic protection. The trenches were reinforced.
With Russia now mounting a full invasion, Ukraine is unlikely to be able to do that again, Mr. Rands said.
“The positions they have fallen back to are not in the same league by any stretch of the imagination,” he said. “Ukraine now needs to build a series of defensive positions whilst in contact — which is difficult.”

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1782425912300261531

“A DOD program launched in 2020 to help startup company drones sell to the U.S. military doesn’t allow drone makers to update their software without government approval.” If you are wondering why American drones are useless in the Ukrainian battlefield.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Norway Parties Considering ‘Significant’ Boost to Ukraine Aid

Norwegian parties are considering a “significant” increase to the country’s 75 billion-krone ($6.8 billion) long-term aid for Ukraine, according to Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide.

www.bloomberg.com

Norwegian parties are considering a “significant” increase to the country’s 75 billion-krone ($6.8 billion) long-term aid for Ukraine, according to Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide.
“We will discuss this with the parliamentary leaders but we’re talking about a significant increase” of the Nansen program, Eide told reporters in Oslo on Monday. While “we haven’t landed numbers,” the aid would be disbursed over “at least five” years “but maybe more,” he said.
“The sense is we all need to do more, and that nobody has done enough,” Eide said.

Norway to provide Ukraine with new contributions for air defense

Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere said there are "significant sums" to be directed to Ukraine's air defense but did not specify the exact amount.

kyivindependent.com

Norway will provide Ukraine with new contributions, including funding, to improve the country's air defense, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere told the TV2 media outlet on April 21.

Ukraine's air defenses have been particularly strained in recent months amid the onslaught of Russian missile and drone attacks and the delay in aid from the U.S.

Stoere said there are "significant sums" to be directed to Ukraine's air defense but did not specify the exact amount.

"We will return to that when we present the revised budget," Stoere said.

"It is expensive, but preserving peace and freedom costs money. Those who pay the highest price are Ukraine and Ukrainians."

Military: Over 20,000 Russian troops trying to storm Chasiv Yar, outskirts

Around 20,000 to 25,000 Russian soldiers are trying to storm Chasiv Yar and the settlements in the city's outskirts, the Khortytsia Group of Forces' spokesperson, Nazar Voloshyn, said on national TV on April 22.

kyivindependent.com

Around 20,000 to 25,000 Russian soldiers are trying to storm Chasiv Yar and the settlements in the city's outskirts, the Khortytsia Group of Forces' spokesperson, Nazar Voloshyn, said on national TV on April 22.

Chasiv Yar lies around 10 kilometers west of Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast and 50 kilometers (31 miles) north of Avdiivka, cities Russia captured in May 2023 and February 2024, respectively.

Russian troops have been focusing their efforts near Chasiv Yar, which they see as crucial for further advances toward Kostiantynivka, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk, the Ukrainian military said.

Ukrainian troops are fighting off Russian paratroopers with the 98th Guards Airborne Division's 217th Guards Airborne Regiment in the area near Chasiv Yar, Voloshyn said.

Media: Next Ramstein summit to be held on April 26

The next Ramstein-format summit of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) will take place on April 26, Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren reportedly told European defense ministers on April 22.

kyivindependent.com

The next Ramstein-format summit of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) will take place on April 26, Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren reportedly told European defense ministers on April 22.

Swedish FM: EU's next Russia sanctions package must target shadow tanker fleet, LNG imports

"Adopting the 14th sanctions package is one of the most important things," Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom said when he arrived in Luxembourg for a ministerial EU meeting.

kyivindependent.com

The EU's upcoming 14th sanctions package must curb Russia's ability to circumvent oil sanctions through its shadow fleet of tankers, Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom said on April 22, Reuters reported.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Why is Russia jamming plane signals across Europe?

The ‘Baltic Beast’ is at it again. Mysterious – or not so mysterious – GPS signal disruption has become a growing problem for civilian air traffic, not just in the Baltic but also the Black Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean. It is clear that Russia is behind it, but why? Airplanes have, while in...

www.spectator.co.uk

However, this is more likely to be part of a generalised campaign to put pressure on Europe. Jamming some GPS signals may sound trivial, and in a way it is. After all, it is largely more of an inconvenience than anything else. Although there are cases of flights being grounded or redirected, even civilian aircraft have alternative systems in case they lose GPS, and in any case these signals are not used in crucial take-offs and landings.
Yet the essence of Russian ‘political warfare’ operations is not to rely on some grand coup de mains, however welcome they may be. They are much more reliant on an accumulation of small-scale irritants and costs in the hope that they eventually form a critical mass able of influencing politics. As a Russian scholar working in this field put it, ‘some day, when their flight has been delayed again, when their gas bill goes up again, when they can’t see a doctor because money that could have been spent on healthcare went to Ukraine instead, then European voters may start questioning’ the official line.

National Guard: Russia gained 'foothold in Bohdanivka area' near Chasiv Yar

In an interview with Suspline media on April 21, a Ukrainian National Guard officer said Russian troops were “advancing very successfully in the direction of Chasiv Yar.”

kyivindependent.com

Russian forces may have gained "a foothold" around the village of Bohdanivka, three kilometers northeast of Chasiv Yar, but Moscow's claims from April 21 that it had been taken completely remain unconfirmed.

An analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on April 21 said there had been no visual confirmation that the village was fully under Russian control and that some pro-Kremlin sources were reporting Ukrainian forces still held ground to the north and northwest.

In an interview with Suspline media on April 21, a Ukrainian National Guard officer said Russian troops were "advancing very successfully in the direction of Chasiv Yar."

"It must be understood that the outskirts of the city were practically destroyed a year ago, there are no hard fortifications," the officer, Volodymyr Cherniak, said, adding: "Now, after the Russian military managed to gain a foothold in the Bohdanivka area, they pulled all possible resources there, and have dug in well."

Budanov: Ukraine faces 'difficult situation' starting mid-May

Ukraine is about to face a "difficult" but "not catastrophic" situation on the front in the near future, starting from mid-May, Ukraine's military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said in an interview with the BBC published on April 22.

kyivindependent.com

Ukraine is about to face a "difficult" but "not catastrophic" situation on the front in the near future, starting from mid-May, Ukraine's military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said in an interview with the BBC published on April 22.

Amid delays in U.S. aid and intensifying Russian attacks, Kyiv has entered what some have called the most difficult phase of the full-scale war since early 2022.

"A difficult situation awaits us in the near future. But it will not be catastrophic, let's be clear," Budanov told the BBC on April 19, days before the U.S. House of Representatives approved additional aid for Ukraine.

"There will be no Armageddon, as many are saying... We will not talk about it at length now, but there will be a difficult period. Mid-May, early June."

 

[culdeus]

Watching Mark rober video this week sort of made me wonder when we start seeing people flying drones into events and blowing themselves up. Seems a definite possibility

What a bleak future.

It was an awfully bleak video for him. He danced around the core issue.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Europe struggles to strengthen Ukraine's air defense system

Countries across Europe are reluctant to part with their most advanced defense systems. In Luxembourg on Monday, foreign ministers are due to try to step up their support.

www.lemonde.fr

Germany has already delivered two of its 12 Patriot systems and has pledged to supply a third in the near-future. Chancellor Olaf Scholz is encouraging his European allies to follow suit. But "the other countries refuse to part with them," said a German diplomat, referring to the four member states also equipped with Patriots: the United Kingdom, Spain, the Netherlands and Poland, the latter anxious to maintain its air defense capabilities due to its proximity to Ukraine and Belarus.

France is also under pressure. At a G7 meeting in Capri, Italy, at the end of last week, the head of Ukrainian diplomacy Dmytro Kuleba asked his French counterpart Stéphane Séjourné to deliver a new copy of the SAMP/T Mamba system, the Franco-Italian equivalent of the Patriot. Paris and Rome had already had great difficulty in supplying the first. "We're working on it both within the French administration and with our Italian partner, but we can't expect a response any time soon," a French source told Le Monde.

Since the beginning of the conflict, Kyiv has received huge quantities of ground-air defense equipment. The US, Germany and the Netherlands have delivered three Patriot batteries. Berlin sent 12 IRIS-Ts (another 22 have been promised), another medium-range system. Washington also handed over 12 NASAMS, a highly effective medium- and long-range battery.

For close defense, particularly against drones, Ukraine also has 52 Gepard armored vehicles supplied by Germany, six British Stormer armored vehicles, two Crotale batteries and six French Mistral firing posts. Not to mention several thousand portable missiles, useful for repelling attacks from helicopters or low-flying combat aircraft. Washington alone has supplied over 2,000 Stinger missiles to Kyiv.
But this equipment is far from sufficient to cover the whole of Ukraine, which has to protect its cities, where the largest concentrations of civilians and its energy infrastructures are located, and the front line, where its troops are targeted by Russian aircraft, which bomb them with smooth bombs or guided glide bombs. "The Ukrainians have all the means at their disposal, but too few to be able to be really multi-layered everywhere," said Yohann Michel, head of the air power unit at the Institute for Strategy and Defense Studies at Lyon-3 University.
Managing a heterogeneous fleet is also a headache for the Ukrainians, who have to provide as many training courses and logistics chains as they have equipment. "If we had a single anti-drone system, it would be easier for the military to thwart these [Russian] attacks," acknowledged Oleksandr Zavitnevych, president of the Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence of the Rada, the Ukrainian parliament, at a hearing in the National Assembly on February 14.
According to specialists, it is illusory to believe that Ukraine will ever have the same air defense as Israel, which intercepted almost all of the 330 or so drones and missiles launched by Iran on April 13. Israel's territory is 27 times smaller than that of Kyiv, and Tel Aviv has an arsenal on a par with Kyiv's: 24 batteries of Arrow 2 and 3 anti-ballistic missile systems, and more than 40 others (Patriot, Iron Dome, David's Slingshot), according to the International Institute for the Strategic Studies. "Today, it's impossible to cover all Ukrainian territory in such a way as to make it invulnerable," said Michel. "Better anti-aircraft defense would nevertheless enable them to think about a freeze in the conflict, with the maintenance of normal or almost normal economic activity."

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-aid-will-boost-ukraine-doubts-remain-over-2025-supplies-2024-04-22/

But Ukraine's military should be able to put the munitions - especially ATACMS missiles, air defense interceptors and artillery shells - to use "almost immediately", said retired Vice Admiral Robert Murrett of the Institute for Security Policy and Law at Syracuse University.
Zelenskiy has asked for ATACMS, long-range guided missiles that allow Ukraine to hit targets such Russian command posts and weapons depots in Crimea.
Senate Intelligence Committee Chair Mark Warner told CBS' "Face the Nation" on Sunday that military equipment including the longer-range ATACMS should be "in transit by the end of the week" providing Senate also passes the legislation.
Ukraine should also receive more missiles for the Patriot air defense system, which has proven effective against missile and drone attacks.
Riki Ellison, founder of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, said U.S. weapons makers had been ramping up production of missiles for the Patriot defense systems to meet demand and should be ready to ship missiles quickly.

Danish Ambassador reveals when Ukraine receives F-16s

Read more

newsukraine.rbc.ua

Denmark will send Ukraine all the F-16 fighter jets that were previously agreed upon between the two leaders, says Ambassador of Denmark to Ukraine Ole Egberg Mikkelsen.

"Don't worry. There will definitely be airplanes for Ukraine. This is our entire F-16 fleet, which is now being decommissioned," Mikkelsen said.

The ambassador explained that Denmark is currently disbanding its fleet, as the country will soon receive a new generation of aircraft - F-35.

"Some of them will be delivered to Argentina. There is nothing to worry about. F-16s will be delivered as promised," he emphasized.

At the same time, when asked by a journalist when Ukraine would receive the planes, the ambassador recalled the words of Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, who had previously said that Denmark would deliver F-16 fighters to Ukraine this summer.

Mikkelsen noted that it is not yet known exactly when this will happen, but he said it will definitely happen in the summer.

How might new US aid change the war in Ukraine?

Russian invasion has gained ground in 2024 as Ukraine ran out of artillery, but a $61bn US aid package finally looks imminent

www.theguardian.com

Russia has also been increasing its defence spending, to up to 7.5% of GDP on some estimates, and innovating on the battlefield. Moscow is increasingly using crude but deadly air-launched glide bombs to devastate the frontline, from distances that Kyiv cannot counter, and Ukrainian soldiers have reported that an increasingly large number of drones are being used against them. Russia also has a manpower advantage on the battlefield, which it has been able to exploit along with heavy weaponry.

Experts do not expect Ukraine to turn around the battlefield position in 2024. “The main point is that this funding can probably only help stabilise the Ukrainian position for this year and begin preparations for operations in 2025,” said Matthew Savill of the Rusi military thinktank, while Hodges argued that 2024 was probably “the year of industrial competition”, where both sides tried to build up resources in an attempt to strike a decisive blow next year.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

First batches of ammunition from Czech-led initiative will be in Ukraine in late May or early June â Borrell

The first batches of artillery shells procured under a Czech initiative to purchase ammunition for Ukraine outside the EU could be delivered to Ukraine in late May or early June.

www.pravda.com.ua

The first batches of artillery shells procured under a Czech initiative to purchase ammunition for Ukraine outside the EU could be delivered to Ukraine in late May or early June.

Source: Josep Borrell, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, following a meeting with EU foreign and defence ministers, which Ukrainian ministers attended remotely

Details: Borrell noted that many countries have joined the Czech initiative and "the first deliveries will come at the end of May-start of June".

"And many countries expressed readiness to participate in the German initiative [seeking out air defence systems – ed.] to concentrate, coordinate and push for the anti-aerial capacity," – Borrell added.

He noted that a number of countries were ready to make concrete contributions within both programmes.

"The two objectives – more air defence systems and more 155-mm calibre ammunition – remain the most important targets for us," Borrell stressed.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/22/ukraine-package-armored-vehicles-00153672

The Biden administration is preparing a larger-than-normal package of military aid for Ukraine that will include armored vehicles, in addition to urgently needed artillery and air defenses, according to two U.S. officials.
Defense Department officials are still putting the finishing touches on the potential new tranche, but they want it to be ready to go soon after President Joe Biden signs off on a bill to provide tens of billions of dollars in additional aid for Kyiv, said the officials, who along with others were granted anonymity to speak ahead of an announcement. The Senate is expected to pass the legislation as early as Tuesday, sending it to Biden’s desk.

The package DOD is working on now will be significantly larger than the most recent tranche of $300 million, said one of the U.S. officials, along with a third U.S. official with knowledge of the discussions. The first two U.S. officials said it would include armored vehicles; a fourth person said additional Bradley Fighting Vehicles would be part of the shipment. Older Humvees and M113 armored personnel carriers, as well as missiles, are also expected to be in the package, one of the U.S. officials said.

The administration is preparing a “big package to help meet Ukraine’s battlefield needs,” said the second U.S. official, adding that it will also include artillery and air defenses.

Colonel: Russia prepared to risk using tactical air force again

Russian troops have managed to make headway near Chasiv Yar due to Ukraine's ammunition shortage and because Russia is more prepared to use its tactical air forces again, said Col. Mart Vendla, deputy head of the EDF Headquarters.

news.err.ee

Russian troops have managed to make headway near Chasiv Yar due to Ukraine's ammunition shortage and because Russia is more prepared to use its tactical air forces again, said Col. Mart Vendla, deputy head of the EDF Headquarters.

Vendla said on the "Ukraina stuudio" talk show that the reasons why Russian forces have managed to move forward from Bakhmut to surround Chasiv Yar are prosaic.

"As we know, U.S. arms aid has been stuck virtually since last October, with the latest major package of supplies delivered in March, meaning that Ukraine's ammunition has been limited to say the least. Russia has wasted no time taking advantage. Losing Avdiivka in mid-February and the Russians reaching Chasiv Yar clearly has to do with ammunition shortages and the Russian side's preparedness to risk using tactical air power again."

The colonel explained that when the full-scale war started, Ukraine managed to close its airspace, which left Russian attack planes largely grounded.

"Massive use of gliding bombs has now opened the door to mid-altitude flights, and it shows. We know it from Homs, Palmira, Syria where those same bombs sowed death and destruction," Vendla noted.

The Ukrainians this week shot down a Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bomber. Col. Vendla said that while downing a single bomber will not cripple Russia's aerial capacity, it has considerable effect.

"If we consider that the Russians should only have around 60 Tu-22M3s, and only half of them are equipped with precision navigation and bombing software, losing a single one comes with a price tag of $250-300 million. So bringing down that plane was money well spent."

He suggested that the Russian side will probably continue making extensive use of glide bombs because Ukrainian air defenses have been weakened.

The colonel said that the devastation caused by a glide bomb that hits its target is dozens of times what artillery can do. "We're talking about three kilograms of explosive mass in the case of 122-millimeter bombs, while it can be six or even eight kilograms for the 155-millimeter ones. And talking about the FAB-1500, it's 700 kilograms [of explosives]," Vendla said, adding that Russian forces dropped 250 glide bombs every day during the siege of Avdiivka.

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1782147057974727135

New leak of Russian Shahed-136 kamikaze UAV production process has dropped.

Russia (in Alabuga) is actively working to modernize Shaheds.

The existing 50-kg high-explosive warhead was almost doubled - to 90 kg.

In addition, high-explosive fragmentation incendiary and thermobaric warheads have also been developed.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/22/europe/ukraine-awaits-us-military-aid-intl-cmd/index.html

“To win, we need ammunition… our artillery is starving,” an artillery reconnaissance commander with the 110th mechanized brigade, callsign “Teren,” told CNN after the vote on Saturday.

Teren knows what he’s talking about, having spent two years defending the industrial town of Avdiivka before it fell to Russia in February. Since then, Moscow’s forces have enjoyed considerable success pushing further west.

To highlight just one of several locations in the Donetsk region: The Ukrainian monitoring group, DeepState, has tracked a series of Russian advances in the last week along a railway line into the center of a large village called Ocheretyne.

While Ocheretyne itself is of no strategic value, it sits on a ridge, making it a desirable military target. An officer with Ukraine’s Eastern Command - who asked not to be named because he is not authorised to speak on the record - told CNN that if Russian forces succeeded in gaining and holding the village, it could bring vital Ukrainian logistics routes, linking three key military hubs – Kostiantynivka, Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka - under Russian fire control.

While American officials will not say so openly, a US source familiar with the provision of military aid to Ukraine said much of it is already pre-positioned in storage facilities in Germany and Poland, which would obviously cut down on the amount of time needed to get it into Ukraine. The source also said artillery shells would be among the first materials moved forward.

Once across the border, officials in Kyiv will look to get it where it is needed as quickly as they can - but doing so will still present a considerable logistical challenge given the sheer quantity of materiel involved.

In other words, the cited ratio advantage of 10 to one that Russia currently enjoys will not be wiped out immediately.

National Security Daily

Although presidential elections have been delayed due to the war, Valery Zaluzhny is something of a folk hero in Ukraine — which could translate into electoral power.

www.politico.com

The White House believes it’ll be able to fast-track some assistance to Ukraine before May 9, but it’s unlikely all U.S. weapons in the package will be delivered by then, a senior administration official told NatSec Daily.

“It depends on the capability. Some things are easier to transit and others,” said the official, granted anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. “Some aid, like artillery shells … will be going in, but other things may take some more time.”

For instance, ammunition for the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System can be sent relatively quickly because there aren’t huge quantities, while items like 155mm artillery could take longer after they arrive in Ukraine to get to the frontlines. Regardless, the White House doesn’t believe it’s a sure thing that Russia will be able to take Chasiv Yar in the near future.

“There's always the worry, though, that lines could break at any moment, and that also could be because of morale issues,” the official said. “We think that this military aid and the message it sends will really help with that.”

Ukraine war briefing: Long-range Atacms missiles on the way, says Zelenskiy

Russian attack shears Kharkiv TV tower in half; EU ministers urge no complacency after US steps up with aid. What we know on day 790

www.theguardian.com

Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Ukraine’s president, said legislation passed by the US House of Representatives and awaiting Senate approval had clarified that Ukraine would be receiving the longer-range version of Atacms (Army Tactical Missile Systems) that it has long sought. Atacms is highly prized by the Ukrainian army for its firepower, speed of deployment and accuracy, but Ukraine has so far been restricted to a version that can only fire 165km (102 miles). Newer versions can fire about 300km. Atacms can be launched from the similarly prized Himars system already supplied by the US to Ukraine.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Thread: https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1782744367523930169

1/ QUICK TAKE on the Russian perceptions of a Ukrainian advantage in FPV drones: “An analysis of battlefield shows that the enemy is many times superior to the Russian military in the FPV use. At the same time, the Ukrainians have an increased FPV range - up to 30 km - due to the installment of repeaters on hexacopters (“Baba Yaga”) and fixed-wing UAVs.”
2/ “In the Kherson region, the enemy drones prevent an effective assault on the village of Krynki, where active operations resumed the day before. Electronic warfare systems supplied to the Russian military are not always able to cope with frequencies.”
3/ “On the Zaporizhzhya Front, the Ukrainian Forces are also increasing the use of FPVs and control the Tokmak road with them. Dmitry Rogozin has written repeatedly about the FPV problem, as well as about new silent Ukrainian hexacopter-bombers.”
4/ “In the Chasov Yar, the situation on the ground difficult, again due to the Ukrainian FPV drones.”
5/ “Every day, enemy units use from 500 to 700 FPVs. The increased range is provided by Ukrainian drones with repeaters. In addition, the enemy is capable of using several drones at once, which indicates that they are controlled at different frequencies.”
6/ “Such a massive drone use on different control channels neutralizes the work of Russian electronic warfare systems, even if they are available and properly operated.”
7/ “At the same time, our units participating in the assaults at Chasyv Yar use much fewer FPVs, most of which do not even reach the target.”
8/ “A systemic problem in our active units is direct orders to front-line soldiers prohibiting them from reporting problems to those arriving from higher command bodies, since the solution to these problems is often transferred to lower command without providing the necessary means and resources.”
9/ Such sentiment is common on both sides, with Russian and Ukrainian commentators and bloggers noting often that the adversary has more drones and can better operate them.

Media: Greece preparing to give Ukraine at least 1 Patriot system, possibly 2

The news follows a story by the Financial Times (FT) on April 22, in which official sources said that Greece and Spain were under specific pressure from the EU to provide additional air defense systems to Ukraine.

kyivindependent.com

Greece is preparing to give Ukraine at least one Patriot air defense system, the Greek media outlet Pronews reported on April 22, citing government sources. The figure could possibly be two, the source added.

https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1782695917042507777

Greece is likely to hand over Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine subject to monetary compensation from the United States and security guarantees from Washington due to the threat from Turkey, Rronews reports.

Germany Urges US to Send Kyiv Another Patriot Missile System

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government is pushing the US to deliver at least one more Patriot anti-missile system to Ukraine to help close the air-defense gap as Russia escalates a barrage of attacks, according to people familiar with the matter.

www.bloomberg.com

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government is pushing the US to deliver at least one more Patriot anti-missile system to Ukraine to help close the air-defense gap as Russia escalates a barrage of attacks, according to people familiar with the matter.
Berlin’s pressure campaign aimed at its transatlantic ally is part of a coordinated effort to get NATO and European Union partners to step up assistance for Ukraine on air defense, the people said on condition of anonymity. Germany will also keep pressing European allies this week, including France and Italy, to assess what they’re able to deliver.

Separately, NATO officials have been in contact with manufacturers to discuss ways to speed up deliveries and ramp up the production of interceptors, another person said. Allies are also exploring re-certifying old or expiring Patriot missiles as well as the possibility of re-purposing batteries currently used for training.

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1782771664251445658

Russian MT-LB armored vehicles covered with fishing nets, mattress springs, metal plates, tires, and, if I'm not mistaken, rudder stripes - for protection against drones.

https://twitter.com/JohnH105/status/1782768482511138844

Ukrainian Telegram channel DeepState reported that Russia took most of Novobakhmutivka and made minor additional gains in Ocheretyne and Berdychi.

https://twitter.com/JohnH105/status/1782769293962236163

A company commander from Ukraine’s 47th Mechanized Brigade observed that Russia’s advances in Ocheretyne put Ukrainian forces units south of the town in a “very uncomfortable position.” He said Russia is exploiting Ukraine’s shell hunger and manpower shortage, which in turn hurt Ukrainian morale. A few days ago, he noted that by pushing straight to Ocheretyne, Russia bypassed the Ukrainian defensive line from Berdychi to Karlivka.

https://twitter.com/deaidua/status/1782669278921031708

According to a BILD report confirmed by the German Ministry of Defence, the 100 MRAPs promised to #Ukraine in March are FFG MRAPs (BATT UMG).

In contrast to the 66 FFG APCs delivered to date, the new vehicles are to be fitted with STANAG 4569 Level 2 a+b mine protection (6kg explosive blast anywhere under the vehicle). However, according to information from BILD, this has not yet been certified.

The German Ministry of Defence is said to be planning to deliver a total of 400 FFG MRAPs to Ukraine and has concluded a contract worth 315 million euros. If this is true, we can therefore expect further announcements in the future.

According to information from BILD, the delivery of the 100 FFG MRAPs announced in March is to begin in June 2024 and be completed this year.

https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1782557130702119206

Some recent developments in Ukraine:

Russians have captured most of Ocheretyne, and they will possibly try to reinforce the success. It seems the dangerous situation was created while Ukraine rotated its troops in the area. Russians also took the rest of Novomykhailivka.
About the rumoured Russian offensive to Kharkiv:

At the moment this seems more like an disinfo operation. Our group has not noticed indicators of significant new forces near Kharkiv, which would enable a large offensive. I may be wrong, but I think the ambitions are in Donetsk.

 

[Chadstroma]

Saw UK sending a new aid package and announced an increase in military spending, targeting 2.5% GDP

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1782820198644408688

A blunder during a recent rotation of Ukrainian forces allowed Russian troops to make a swift 5km gain, capture Ocheretyne village and move towards Ukraine’s newly fortified defenses. “Unfortunately, the enemy managed to take advantage of the situation.”

Exclusive: US preparing $1 billion weapons package for Ukraine, officials say

The United States is preparing a $1 billion military aid package for Ukraine, the first to be sourced from the yet to be signed Ukraine-Israel bill, two U.S. officials told Reuters on Tuesday.
The aid package includes vehicles, Stinger air defense munitions, additional ammunition for high-mobility artillery rocket systems, 155 millimeter artillery ammunition, TOW and Javelin anti-tank munitions and other weapons that can immediately be put to use on the battlefield, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/23/politics/us-ukraine-military-aid-package/index.html

In briefings to Congress in recent weeks, administration officials have indicated that the US will likely send Ukraine long-range ATACMS, or Army Tactical Missile Systems, for the first time as part of the new aid package, three of the sources said.

https://twitter.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1782835293218845116

BREAKING: CNN reports the Biden Admin has informed Congress that they will provide "long-range" ATACMS to Ukraine. This would likely include the M39A1, M48, & M57. Doubtful that the newest M57E1s would be sent.
To be clear, I don't expect a large number of ATACMS to be provided. M39A1 are the most likely, but M48 & M57s are possible too. The report only says "long-range" ATACMS, so those 3 are the likely candidates that could be sent. M57E1 is extremely unlikely. Time will tell though.

https://twitter.com/CarlaBabbVOA/status/1782834327669129642

#BREAKING Sr WH Official to VOA-@POTUS ordered DOD deliver military equipment to #Poland and #Germany "a few weeks ago" in anticipation of supplemental to ensure prompt shipment of military aid to #Ukraine ; expect 'substantial' aid package immediately after @POTUS signs into law

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1782899461657633038

The updated map shows further Russian gains into Ocheretyne and Semenivka, the capture of Novobakhmutivka, and advances towards Heorhiivka and northeast of Novokalynove.

Ambassador: Ukraine in talks to set up joint production of Patriot systems

Kyiv is pushing Washington for the joint production of Patriot air defense systems to help Ukraine fend off Russia's war, Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova said in an interview with European Pravda on April 23.

kyivindependent.com

Kyiv is pushing Washington for the joint production of Patriot air defense systems to help Ukraine fend off Russia's war, Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova said in an interview with European Pravda on April 23.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine Is Still Outgunned by Russia

Even if Congress passes the aid package, most of the artillery Ukraine needs won’t get to the front until next year.

foreignpolicy.com

But the expectation is that the administration will spend much of the year rebuilding U.S. stockpiles to prewar levels as the U.S. Army aims to level up artillery production to 100,000 rounds per month by the end of 2025.
Across the Atlantic Ocean, Europe’s stockpiles are empty. Most of the output from the European Union’s initiative to get 1.4 million shells into Ukrainian hands—about half of which have already been delivered—won’t get there until the end of 2024. So Ukraine’s partners on the continent are searching under the couch cushions and looking for suppliers outside the European bloc to find enough artillery to keep Kyiv’s gun barrels hot.
The Czech Republic appears to have sourced enough money from a consortium of European countries to buy 500,000 rounds of 155 mm artillery ammunition and is currently working on getting the first batch to Ukraine. The Estonian government, which also has an initiative to crowdfund artillery shells for the Ukrainians, has not started fundraising.

Refurbishing old artillery ammunition is about 30 percent cheaper than buying new shells, European officials said, but much of it comes from former Soviet satellite countries that aren’t keen to be on the Kremlin’s bad side.
“I think it’s fair to assume that the Ukrainians for the next 12 months will be able to have a monthly fire rate of maybe roughly 75,000 to 85,000 [shells] per month, which boils down to something like 2,400 to 2,500 rounds per day,” said Franz-Stefan Gady, an associate fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London who conducted a study recently examining Ukraine’s rate of artillery fire.
Gady said that is about the minimum amount that Ukraine needs to sustain a defensive war against the Russians. “That doesn’t leave any room for offensive operations this year,” Gady added.

The Ukrainians are trying to juke the numbers in their favor by getting more high-explosive rounds, which some see as a key defensive weapon as they try to stave off Russian assaults across the 600-mile-long front line. “The Ukrainians are basically committed to largely being on the defensive this year,” a congressional aide told Foreign Policy on condition of anonymity to talk about the situation on the battlefield. “Cluster munitions are … a top five defensive weapon as they’re trying to marshal their forces.”
Every round of dual-purpose improved conventional munitions, known as DPICMs in military parlance, is about four to five times more deadly than a conventional artillery round, the congressional aide said. There are about 3 million DPICM rounds in U.S. arsenals, dating all the way back to the Cold War—and the Biden administration has the authority to send $500 million worth more of the rounds and is likely to approve them soon—but the weapons have high “dud” rates, meaning they don’t always go off when fired and can be left behind for civilians to encounter, often with deadly consequences.

https://twitter.com/maxbergmann/status/1782819608283464153

Big new report “Back in Stock” from our Russia team on the impact of sanctions on Russia’s defense industry. Bottom line: Russia has adapted with the vital help of Beijing. Note exports in dual use goods from China to Russia skyrocket after Putin and Xi met in March 2023. 1/

Russia's use of prisoners to feed war machine is widespread

A law passed at the end of March allows suspects to escape conviction if they choose to go fight on the front lines in Ukraine.

www.lemonde.fr

According to Olga Romanova, founder of Rus Sidiachaya ("Russia in the Shadows"), a prisoners' rights NGO now operating in exile, some 50,000 former prisoners have been released after surviving six months on the front. In an interview with the media outlet Nastoiachtchee Vremia, Romanova gave the example of the Ivanovo region, 250 kilometers northeast of Moscow, where, according to police data to which she claims to have access, 358 ex-prisoners had returned by the end of 2023 – and more than half of them were already back in prison.
Just as secret is the total number of imprisoned people sent to fight in Ukraine. Romanova estimates the number to be 150,000, a figure in line with the few data released by the prison authorities. In August 2022 (after the first recruitments by Prigozhin), Russia had 349,000 prisoners; by October 2023, the figure had fallen to 266,000. These figures do not include the more than 100,000 people in pre-trial detention.

According to sparse and therefore incomplete information, prisons have been closed in several regions. Six have already shut their doors in Sverdlovsk, Yekaterinburg, and two are in the process of being closed in Krasnoyarsk. At the same time, according to the Associated Press, the Russian authorities are planning to open 25 detention facilities in the annexed territories in Ukraine.

 

[themeistersinger]

How Ukraine War Is Stretching Russian Workers to Their Limits - The Moscow Times

Opinion | Whether the Ukraine war has been good for Russia’s working class is a question that Putin’s inner elite is obviously concerned about.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Monthly chart: Ukraine braces for tough summer months as Russia renews attacks on energy infrastructure

The following is a chart based off of data originally published in the Kyiv-based Center of Economic Strategy's "Ukraine War Economy Tracker." The Kyiv Independent is republishing it with permission. Ukraine is forced to rely on electricity imports after Russian attacks Net commercial...

kyivindependent.com

 

[The Z Machine]

I assume "joint production" of Patriot systems means the interceptor, not the launch system.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/bealejonathan/status/1783028768719712672

Latest batch of U.K. military aid to #Ukraine will include Paveway IV bombs .

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1783052204435202398

Another case of “bavovna”: Ukrainian drones operated by the SBU security service struck two Russian oil facilities in Smolensk overnight, according to an official with knowledge of the attacks.

“The SBU continues to effectively destroy the military infrastructure and logistics that provide fuel to the Russian army in Ukraine. These objects are and remain our absolutely legitimate targets,” the official said.

Recall our @FT reporting that the White House had urged Kyiv to not strike Russian oil facilities. Ukraine has not heeded the strongly worded advice.

https://twitter.com/JohnH105/status/1783125445463978188

Ukrainian Telegram channel DeepState reported that Russia tried to push westward from Ocheretyne to Prohres (circled on map) but was stopped by a counterattack by Ukraine’s 100th Mechanized Brigade.

The channel noted that Russia continues to attack elsewhere in the Avdiivka area and enjoys a numerical advantage in infantry on top of its advantages in artillery, glide bombs, and number of vehicles.

DeepState again blamed the 115th Mech Bde for the “collapse of the defense” in the Ocheretyne area, “allowing significant losses.”

https://twitter.com/JohnH105/status/1783101938713686091

Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said the Ukrainian government will allocate another UAH 8 billion (~$202.3 million) to the construction of fortifications, bringing the total since 2024 began to almost UAH 34 billion (~$859.9 million).

Video: https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1783026372987801695

Ukrainian FPV drone hits a Russian unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) designed for mine laying.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

German leader says Europe must keep increasing aid to Ukraine after US approves new military help

The German chancellor says Europe must continue to step up its help for Ukraine even after the approval of a big U.S. aid package.

apnews.com

Still, asked whether he will reverse his often-criticized refusal to send Taurus missiles, Scholz listed at length the military hardware Germany has provided and added: “As far as the weapons system you mention is concerned, my decision won’t change.”

Sources: SBU drone attack destroys 26,000 cubic meters of Russian fuel in Smolensk Oblast

Drones of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) attacked two oil depots in Russia's Smolensk Oblast overnight, destroying 26,000 cubic meters of fuel, sources in law enforcement agencies told the Kyiv Independent on April 24.

kyivindependent.com

Drones of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) attacked two oil depots in Russia's Smolensk Oblast overnight, destroying 26,000 cubic meters of fuel, sources in law enforcement agencies told the Kyiv Independent on April 24.

Why supporting Ukraine is 'main priority' for Norway's defense chief this year - Breaking Defense

“I have more sense of urgency in 2024 than I had in 2023” about how quickly Russia can rearm its military, Norway’s Chief of Defense, Gen. Eirik Kristoffersen, told Breaking Defense.

breakingdefense.com

Norway’s top military officer says that supporting Ukraine is his “main priority” for the year, as he warns that without more Western aid, Kyiv is in real danger.

“I’m concerned,” Norwegian Chief of Defense Gen. Eirik Kristoffersen told Breaking Defense during a recent visit to Washington when asked about how he sees the Ukraine conflict in the coming months.

“I said it in January last year: I don’t see short-term military solution in Ukraine,” he said. “I got a lot of pushback on that because we were all eager to make sure that Ukraine was winning in the spring offensive. But I couldn’t see that we were investing enough in in Ukraine, and I still think we’re not investing enough in support. So we need to continue doing that.”

But, he warned, Russia’s own military is improving at a faster rate than he expected, in part because Russia has “basically moved into a war economy” and is now able to produce weapons at higher rates than in 2023.

“I have more sense of urgency in 2024 than I had in 2023” about how quickly Russia can rearm its military, he said. “The modernized, or the rebuilt, Russian force is closer to us now than I would say one year ago — based also on what they are receiving from Iran, from North Korea, and how they have been able to basically not have sanctions have the effect that I expected them to have had you asked me last year.”

Doctrinally, Russia is also finally catching up to the lessons from its failed 2022 invasion, Kristoffersen warned.
“They have these lessons learned that they’re using. I think it took them some more time. I think the Ukrainians are much more innovative in the beginning. But if you have a very hierarchical system, once you have learned some lessons learned that you actually want to implement, they can do it fast,” he said. “So if they [decide to] move from manned to unmanned systems in one area, then when they decide to do it, it will go fast.”

 

[themeistersinger]

German leader says Europe must keep increasing aid to Ukraine after US approves new military help

The German chancellor says Europe must continue to step up its help for Ukraine even after the approval of a big U.S. aid package.

apnews.com

But, he warned, Russia’s own military is improving at a faster rate than he expected, in part because Russia has “basically moved into a war economy” and is now able to produce weapons at higher rates than in 2023.

“I have more sense of urgency in 2024 than I had in 2023” about how quickly Russia can rearm its military, he said. “The modernized, or the rebuilt, Russian force is closer to us now than I would say one year ago — based also on what they are receiving from Iran, from North Korea, and how they have been able to basically not have sanctions have the effect that I expected them to have had you asked me last year.”

Doctrinally, Russia is also finally catching up to the lessons from its failed 2022 invasion, Kristoffersen warned.
“They have these lessons learned that they’re using. I think it took them some more time. I think the Ukrainians are much more innovative in the beginning. But if you have a very hierarchical system, once you have learned some lessons learned that you actually want to implement, they can do it fast,” he said. “So if they [decide to] move from manned to unmanned systems in one area, then when they decide to do it, it will go fast.”

Yeah, the "war economy" part is very concerning, especially if they can declare any kind of victory in Ukraine. That thing will have momentum (i,.e. military-industrial complex). Just because the Ukraine war would be over, they might as well keep building more stuff and eventually using that some place else (like the Baltics).

 

[beer 30]

Yeah, the "war economy" part is very concerning, especially if they can declare any kind of victory in Ukraine. That thing will have momentum (i,.e. military-industrial complex). Just because the Ukraine war would be over, they might as well keep building more stuff and eventually using that some place else (like the Baltics).

Don't worry, there will be another war to take it's place. Hell Israel looks like they are just warming up (pun intended). We are quickly entering the lather-rinse-repeat war cycle.

 

[Chadstroma]

Yeah, the "war economy" part is very concerning, especially if they can declare any kind of victory in Ukraine. That thing will have momentum (i,.e. military-industrial complex). Just because the Ukraine war would be over, they might as well keep building more stuff and eventually using that some place else (like the Baltics).

Don't worry, there will be another war to take it's place. Hell Israel looks like they are just warming up (pun intended). We are quickly entering the lather-rinse-repeat war cycle.

I am not sure what Russia having transitioned to a war economy has to do with Israel.

The obvious danger is that Russia has gone all in on Ukraine. If they succeed, defeat Ukraine and occupy it or even keep what they have, there is zero chance that Russia pulls back and turns all of it's swords into plowshares. First, transiting an economy is painful. Second, Putin if fixated on rebuilding the Russian/Soviet Empire. Third, Russia will not have the money to rebuild Ukraine or even the current occupied areas.

It is hard for me to see Russia push into a NATO country like the Baltics. Even the most pro Russian hardliner has to stop and say "we can barely beat a country fighting on it's own, next door to us with mostly outdated hand me downs that most NATO countries haven't used in years.... we are supposed to take on all of NATO with state of the art weapons, trained military and full tactical options.... ok." but a few years back a full scale invasion of Ukraine was hard to see as well.

Whatever the next step is, the other thing that is hard to see is Russia becoming a peaceful member of the international community.

 

[themeistersinger]

Daring Ukrainian Raid Seizes Russian Tank Equipped with Drone Jammers

MSN

 

[themeistersinger]

Sources: SBU drone attack destroys 26,000 cubic meters of Russian fuel in Smolensk Oblast

Drones of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) attacked two oil depots in Russia's Smolensk Oblast overnight, destroying 26,000 cubic meters of fuel, sources in law enforcement agencies told the Kyiv Independent on April 24.

kyivindependent.com

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Seems like July/August for the Czech initiative: https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1783520300274987273

An update to this. Another Western official says Czech ammo supply doesn't kick in until July-Aug. Russian average daily casualties (KIA & wounded) were 983 in March and 823 in Apr as attacks slowed. They've been able to replace those. But no sign of a meaningful Russian reserve.

European-trained Ukrainian F-16 pilots will not be ready until late 2024

However, pilot training in Europe is in less advanced stages, with only 10 Ukrainians currently undergoing training on European soil. After six months in the UK, where they learned the basics of combat aviation in English, four of them arrived in France in early March for what is known as the "advanced fighter" phase, during which they will be introduced to the various tactics used on Western fighters such as air-to-ground bombing and air defense tactics. The six other Ukrainian pilots still overseas are expected in France in the coming weeks.
Scheduled to last around six months, this phase will take place at an air base in southwest France, the precise location of which is being kept confidential for security reasons. The French training program for Ukrainian pilots includes approximately 50 simulator sessions and 80 flying hours on the Alpha Jet, a Franco-German twin-engine aircraft. The French Air Force used this model to train its pilots until early 2023, after which they switched to using the Pilatus PC-21s, a two-seater Swiss propeller plane. France still has 43 Alpha Jets, a dozen of which are still used by the Patrouille de France (the precision aerobatics demonstration unit of the French Air and Space Force), but are gradually being withdrawn from service.

According to a military source, the 10 Ukrainian pilots training in Europe are relatively inexperienced, which explains the length of their training journey. Their average age is between 21 and 23, and six of them had never sat in a combat aircraft before arriving in the UK. The other four had only flown Aero L-39s in Ukraine, a Czech trainer widely used in former Warsaw Pact countries. This youth and inexperience can be explained by the shortage of pilots in Ukraine, many of whom have been killed or injured since the start of the conflict. Nearly 100 Ukrainian aircraft have been destroyed or damaged by the Russians in the last two years, according to the Oryx website, which compiles the material losses of both belligerents based on visual evidence.

Nevertheless, the Ukrainian pilots make up for their inexperience by being highly motivated, and their progress is linear, according to a military source. At the end of their six months in France, if they prove satisfactory, they will be sent to a country yet to be designated, where they will complete their training by flying F-16s. Romania is being considered for the final phase, estimated to last four months. No Ukrainian pilots trained in Europe are therefore expected to be operational before late 2024 or even early 2025.

If they want to start flying F-16s this summer, the Ukrainians will have to rely on their pilots trained in the US, where apprenticeships began earlier and with more seasoned pilots. However, the military agrees that miracles should not be expected. "Mastering the F-16 doesn't happen overnight," said General James B. Hecker, commander of US Air Forces in Europe and Africa, in August 2023. "You can become proficient on some weapons systems fairly quickly, but with those like the F-16, it takes longer. Aligning a few squadrons with a sufficiently high state of readiness can take four or five years," he said.

Ukraine pulls US-provided Abrams tanks from the front lines over Russian drone threats

Two U.S. officials say Ukraine has sidelined U.S.-provided Abrams M1A1 battle tanks for now in its fight against Russia.

apnews.com

Ukraine has sidelined U.S.-provided Abrams M1A1 battle tanks for now in its fight against Russia, in part because Russian drone warfare has made it too difficult for them to operate without detection or coming under attack, two U.S. military officials told The Associated Press.

The U.S. agreed to send 31 Abrams to Ukraine in January 2023 after an aggressive monthslong campaign by Kyiv arguing that the tanks, which cost about $10 million apiece, were vital to its ability to breach Russian lines.

But the battlefield has changed substantially since then, notably by the ubiquitous use of Russian surveillance drones and hunter-killer drones. Those weapons have made it more difficult for Ukraine to protect the tanks when they are quickly detected and hunted by Russian drones or rounds.

Five of the 31 tanks have already been lost to Russian attacks.

The proliferation of drones on the Ukrainian battlefield means “there isn’t open ground that you can just drive across without fear of detection,” a senior defense official told reporters Thursday.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Greece won't send Patriots to Ukraine

Greece will not supply Ukraine with Patriot air defense systems or S-300 missiles, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said on April 25.

kyivindependent.com

Greece will not supply Ukraine with Patriot air defense systems or S-300 missiles, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said in an interview with the news outlet Iefimerida on April 25.

Greece to continue Ukraine support but won't send F-16 jets to Ukraine, PM says - Euromaidan Press

Greek PM Mitsotakis affirms Greece’s support for Ukraine in its war with Russia, but says his country is not ready to provide Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets, citing concerns over Greece’s own defense capabilities amid tensions with neighboring Türkiye.

euromaidanpress.com

In an interview with Rzeczpospolita (RP), Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis addressed his country’s stance on the war in Ukraine. Mitsotakis stated that Greece has been supporting Ukraine since the beginning of the Russian invasion, but is not prepared to provide Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets citing Greek tensions with Türkiye.

El Pais: Spain to send Patriot missiles to Ukraine

The move is the latest from Western nations responding to calls from Kyiv for more air defenses in the face of escalating Russian missile and drone attacks on cities across the country.

kyivindependent.com

Spain will send a small number of critically needed Patriot missiles to Ukraine, the El Pais newspaper reported on April 26, citing unnamed government sources, but has ruled out sending the system's anti-aircraft launchers.

The move is the latest from Western nations responding to calls from Kyiv for more air defenses in the face of escalating Russian missile and drone attacks on cities across the country.

The exact number of Patriot missiles Spain is sending has not been reported, but El Pais said the number would be small as the country only has around 50 in total in reserve.

"The transfer of a small number of missiles has come after the defense ministry refused to hand over to Ukraine the battery it has had deployed since 2013 on the Turkish-Syrian border," El Pais said.

"It will be a very limited number, as the Spanish war reserve is around 50 units, and interceptors are very expensive," it added.

https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1783763243611115796

As expected, the Ukrainian posture in the Donetsk Oblast remained largely unchanged since February. Russians, on the other hand, added around 20 new units to the oblast. We expect this disparity to continue to grow over spring.

https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1783813203790561306

Russia transformed its border with Ukraine over the past two years with multiple lines of defenses.

Russian forces continue expanding fortifications along this border and within occupied Ukraine. This update adds newly mapped Russian positions found in satellite imagery. (1/5)
An example of Russia expanding defenses along the border with Ukraine is visible near Pokachevo (Belgorod oblast) where new fortifications were recently constructed. (2/5)
Closer to the front line, Russian forces are adding to existing networks of defenses.

For example, fortifications near Novofedorivka (Zaporizhzhia oblast) were expanded over the past month. (3/5)
Many of Russia’s new fortifications constructed over the past two years in occupied Ukraine intersect older defenses constructed between 2014 and 2022. (4/5)

https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1783824938870157671

“You talk to any soldier in Ukraine: you don't go anywhere without a drone flying, either in support of you or against you" - At Army’s special-ops school, the biggest changes in a generation.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1783770893522522510

The advance of Russian forces west of Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, has accelerated within the past week. Russian Ground Forces (RGF) have created a narrow salient further into Ukrainian territory to enter the town of Ocheretyne, located approximately 15km north of central Avdiivka.
Since RGF took control of Avdiivka in mid-February 2024, the area has remained one of the primary areas of Russian operations. Despite sustaining continued high losses, it is highly likely that RGF are able to continuously target Ukrainian positions in the area and have taken control of several small settlements.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

'More EW Than We Have Ever Seen Before' in Ukraine, Space Force Official Says

The Space Force must learn from an unprecedented of electronic warfare in Ukraine in the conflict there, Col. Nicole Petrucci said April 24.

www.airandspaceforces.com

“What we have seen in the Ukraine-Russia conflict is more EW than we have ever seen before,” Col. Nicole Petrucci, the commander of the USSF’s combat-ready forces as head of Space Delta 3, said during an AFA Warfighters in Action event. “We’ve actually been studying this very carefully to see what’s going on to see how we can help or not help—and that is unofficially, just because we’re trying to see what was the environment like.”

Ukraine and Russia have engaged in a cat-and-mouse game to jam each other’s systems. Ukraine has tried to use electronic warfare to help its air defenses confront Russian drones and missiles. Russia has interfered with signals in an attempt to disrupt global positioning system satellites that help Ukraine employ guided aerial and artillery munitions, many of which have been provided by the U.S.

The Space Force’s assessment of the Russia-Ukraine conflict may mean “we need to exercise some different tactics, some different techniques to get after what the environment looks like now,” said Petrucci, who commands roughly 600 personnel in Delta 3.

Ex UK minister says Germany's Scholz should send missiles to Kiev

Former UK defence secretary Ben Wallace has called on German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to agree to send Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine, as he continues to resist this step despite repeated pleas from Kiev. "I think the reason is you can't incrementally help Ukraine, you know, a bit of this and a...

www.yahoo.com

Former UK defence secretary Ben Wallace has called on German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to agree to send Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine, as he continues to resist this step despite repeated pleas from Kiev.

"I think the reason is you can't incrementally help Ukraine, you know, a bit of this and a bit of that. Do we want Ukraine to win? Or do we want them to lose?" Wallace said.

While he understands Scholz's reasons for concern regarding a possible escalation of the conflict, these are unfounded, Wallace said. "We've seen throughout this whole process, Russia's red lines are like chalk, they just brush off the chalkboard," he said.

"Ukraine will abide by any restrictions you put on them. So you could give them Taurus. And you could add all sorts of restrictions about where you want it used or not used," said Wallace of the missiles Kiev has been requesting for months.

He also dismissed comments made by Scholz that suggested British and French troops are in Ukraine, programming cruise missiles.

"He was wrong," said Wallace. "I can't tell you how Storm Shadows and Scalps are programmed. But it doesn't involve people standing around in an airport in Ukraine, it doesn't need to do that."

While applauding Germany for ramping up its support for Ukraine, the former minister reiterated his harsh criticism of Scholz's leadership.

"I think he's not a leader for conflict at the moment. And there is conflict on our shores. And I think he, you know, the point he doesn't understand deterrence, he doesn't understand ambiguity, he doesn't seem to understand that in the process we face in dealing with Russia, looking either indecisive, or flip flopping on certain decisions, or seeming to be out of step with your allies, only aids Putin."

Ukrainian Fighter Jets “Using iPads” To Control Western Weapons

The Pentagon's top weapons buyer talked about Ukraine’s success in using tablets to integrate Western weapons on its Soviet jets.

www.twz.com

The Ukrainian Air Force is using iPads, or similar tablets in the cockpits of its Soviet-era jets to enable rapid integration of modern Western air-to-ground weapons — something that TWZ predicted back in 2022. This has been confirmed by Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment Dr. William LaPlante. While many questions remain about the tablet and how it exactly works, there’s now footage showing it fitted in cockpits during combat (or at least live-fire training) missions.

LaPlante was speaking at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank's annual Global Security Forum yesterday, April 24, 2024. When asked to provide examples of successful programs that rapidly developed capabilities and got them into the hands of the military, one example he chose was the tablets in Ukrainian fighter cockpits:

“There’s also a series of … we call it ‘air-to-ground,’ it’s what we call it euphemistically … think about the aircraft that the Ukrainians have, and not even the F-16s, but they have a lot of the Russian and Soviet-era aircraft. Working with the Ukrainians, we’ve been able to take many Western weapons and get them to work on their aircraft where it’s basically controlled by an iPad by the pilot. And they’re flying it in conflict like a week after we get it to him.”

LaPlante didn’t provide further details, but it’s noteworthy that a video recently released by the Ukrainian Air Force shows a Su-27 Flanker fitted with exactly this type of system — possibly an iPad, but perhaps also another kind of commercially available tablet.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Military briefing: Russia’s narrowing advantage in Ukraine

Moscow’s forces are unlikely to succeed in a massive offensive this year

www.ft.com

Two senior Ukrainian intelligence officials described Russia’s current attacks along key areas of the frontline and missile and drones strikes on Kharkiv and similarly important cities as softening the battlefield before a bigger offensive operation.
The officials said they expected Russia to launch a new large-scale offensive in late May or June.

But with US aid finally on the way, Ukraine could expose the flaws inherent in Russia’s attempts to overwhelm it with low-quality munitions and a large but poorly trained army, according to western defence officials and analysts.
One western official said that while Russia might make some tactical breakthroughs at the frontline, it remained an ineffective army characterised by old equipment and poorly trained soldiers and would not “overrun” Ukraine, they added.
“In February 2022, Russia had a far better equipped and trained army,” the official said, referring to Russia’s initial invasion and subsequent rout in northern Ukraine. “I simply can’t see that it is better now.”
After its initial blitzkrieg failed, Russia has sought to grind down Ukraine by favouring quantity over quality on the battlefield.
Russia fires five shells for each returning salvo from Ukraine’s forces, while the ratio is even higher in some flashpoints along the line of contact, according to Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who studies the Russian military.
“The aid won’t cancel out Russian advantages this year, but it will allow Ukrainian forces to defend their positions with counter-battery fires and can be used to slow or halt Russian advances,” Massicot said.

Sergei Chemezov, head of Rostec, the state defence conglomerate, last November said Russia was making 2.5 times more artillery and multiple launch systems than before, while increasing production of some types of ammunition by more than 60 times.
Those sheer numbers, however, mask Moscow’s inability to turn that firepower into a significant breakthrough — something Russian experts say it could only do with more advanced weaponry.
Western sanctions have made it harder for Russia to obtain the components needed for drones, loitering munitions, guided bombs, and high-precision missiles, forcing it to rely on the lower-tech weapons it can mass-produce more easily, according to Ruslan Pukhov, head of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Moscow defence think-tank.
Pukhov said: “The most decisive systems on the battlefield in Ukraine are directly dependent on sanctions. Scaling them up means leaders on all levels have to think creatively and understand the main trends and likely outcomes of the war.”
Despite Moscow’s larger arsenal, its army “doesn’t have a radical advantage over Ukraine in artillery and munitions”, he added. “At least, the people fighting on the Russian side don’t see it.”
Instead, the Kremlin is deploying more low-tech weaponry such as highly destructive glide bombs and refurbished Soviet weaponry while deploying troops using motorcycles and off-road vehicles.
“If it works, it works — low-tech or not,” Massicot said.
Even that, however, is not enough to sustain the enormous rates of fire Russia rained down on Ukraine in the first six months of the war, according to Pavel Luzin, non-resident senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, based in Washington.
Russia fired up to 60,000 shells a day before autumn 2022 — an amount that has dropped to about 10,000 a day and which includes supplies from North Korea and Iran.
Those smaller rates of fire reflect how the intensity of battle is outstripping what Russia can replenish even at those higher production levels — and holding back a more significant push forward.
Russia would need to produce 3.6mn shells a year to sustain the current rate of fire, according to a report published this week by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
The defence ministry has admitted, however, it can only produce at most half of the 4mn 152mm-calibre shells and 1.6mn 122mm-calibre shells Putin’s military estimates it needs to break through.
And as Russia keeps firing more shells, it wears down its artillery barrels faster than it can produce new ones — forcing it to replace them with Soviet-era barrels instead.

To raise those men, the army is offering financial incentives including salaries starting at Rbs200,000 — five times the average wage in some of Russia’s poorer regions — and bonuses ranging between Rbs300,000 and Rbs1mn, according to a report by Estonia’s foreign intelligence service.
Soldiers can receive further bonuses for their exploits on the battlefield or being wounded, while their families stand to receive generous payouts if they are killed in action.
Those prospects are not distant: 315,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in the war, Cavoli said, adding pressure for the army to replenish its units.
That mercantile approach allows Russia to draw enough recruits from people for whom fighting is financially attractive while avoiding mobilisation — a step that prompted hundreds of thousands of men to flee the country in autumn 2022.
“The main approach now is ‘purchasing blood’ among the Russian lower classes,” said Luzin, from the Center for European Policy Analysis.
New offensives, however, would require Putin to declare another round of mobilisation, said Massicot of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“If the Kremlin has ambitions for Kharkiv, or something even more difficult like southern Ukraine, then they will need to generate a very large force, probably well over 100,000 for both, plus the equipment,” Massicot said.
Even if Russia did draft more men, sheer numbers would not be sufficient to compensate for their lack of training, Luzin said. “We all talk about mobilisation but where are the commanders, sergeants and lieutenants, who would command the mobilised soldiers?”

Ukraine Could Use New Weapons to Hit Russian Targets in Crimea, Pentagon Says

The goal for a recent delivery of ATACMS, a coveted long-range missile system, is to put more pressure on Russian forces in eastern parts of occupied Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

Ukrainian forces will be able to use a newly delivered, coveted long-range missile system to more effectively target Russian forces in occupied Crimea, senior Pentagon officials said on Thursday.

Much of the long-delayed weapons deliveries would need to initially focus on shoring up Ukraine’s defenses, U.S. national security officials said. The new system can reach deeper into Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine and target supply nodes for Russian forces in the southeast.
The goal for the new longer-range systems is to put more pressure on Crimea, a hub of Russian air and ground forces, “where, right now, Russia has had relatively safe haven,” a senior defense official told reporters during a news briefing at the Pentagon on Thursday.

Austin to Announce Up to $6 Billion Arms Commitment to Ukraine

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is set to announce on Friday the commitment of as much as $6 billion to bankroll long-term contracts to provide Ukraine with weapons such as Patriot missiles and drones, according to several US officials familiar with the issue.

www.bloomberg.com

That package included $13.8 billion in USAI funding, a defense official told reporters Thursday. The Pentagon has put on contract virtually all of the previous $19 billion USAI funding passed in previous packages.
Each award is preceded by a rigorous back and forth with contractors that can take months to insure the military is getting a fair price and realistic delivery schedules.
Among the largest previous USAI contracts were $1.2 billion awarded in August 2022 to various unnamed contractors for 155mm ammunition and $1.2 billion to RTX Corp. to build six Nasam air defense systems awarded between August and November 2022. The NATO-standard air defense system, produced by RTX, is used to protect the Washington region, including the White House.