Official Subscriber Contest (1 Viewer)

[urbanhack]

Rogers and Finley may have saved me.

 

[datonn]

QB Rodgers - 31.80

RB1 R. Rice - 17.70

RB2 L. Washington - 6.10

WR1 V. Jackson - 9.60

WR2 B. Engram - 5.00

WR3 P. Harvin - 5.90

TE1 J. Finley 27.80

FLEX - Z. Miller 7.80

PK - R. Longwell 4.00

DST - NY Giants 7.00

122.7, by my calculations. I have no idea if that will be enough to eek through to Week 5, but man oh man if I did, it's all on TE Finley saving my bacon!

 

[Barry Jive and The Uptown Five]

No sense me posting a current cut on Mondays anymore, since you guys have it nailed. Current is around 90. Projected is around 110.

Pre-MNF sim

According to the Sim:99% confidence on survival = 121.8 pts

I'm sitting at 71.8 pts, but feeling "cautiously optimistic"

Rodgers (-0) 25 (Target)

Grant (-6.4) 15

Harvin (-4.7) 15

GB DEF (-2) 8

That would do it for me. Getting me to 122

:knockonwood:

Rodgers (-0) 31.80 Actual Grant (-6.4) 12.2 Actual

Harvin (-4.7) 5.9 Actual

GB DEF (-2) 8 Actual

Sitting @ 116.8

 

[ctriopelle]

Strange scoring distribution at the cut line. My final number is still 113.8, but I wouldn't be surprised if it could reach as low as 113.65 once scoring errors are reconciled.

Late surge by Rodgers pushed me through, finished at 132.1. On to next week, where I must manage to survive a zero QB week with Rodger's bye and Leftwich benched. NOT a good thing to look forward to, hoping my studs kick it up a notch this week...

 

[Mr. Brownstone]

I really couldn't have asked for a better week. I think I am at around 230 points.

QB - Matt Schaub - 20

QB - David Garrard - 18

QB - Matt Leinart - 4

RB - Ronnie Brown - 35

RB - Ray Rice - 21

RB - Leon Washington - 12

RB - Felix Jones - 11

RB - Ladell Betts - 2

RB - James Davis - 2

WR - Greg Jennings - 32

WR - Vincent Jackson - 21

WR - Josh Morgan - 15

WR - Steve Smith - 12

WR - Mike Sims-Walker - 9

WR - Nate Washington - 6

WR - Chansi Stuckey - 4

WR - Robert Meachem - 3

TE - Zach Miller - 12

TE - Jermichael Finley - 3

TE - Delanie Walker - 1

PK - Robbie Gould - 2

PK - Olindo Mare - 1

TD - Miami Dolphins - 3

TD - Cincinnati Bengals - 1

 

[belljr]

Rogers and Finley may have saved me.

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

Yikes! Only 88.5. The silver lining is I get all of Rodgers' points, I get all of Harvin's points, plus Finley (-3.6) and Packers D (-12). Need a Monday Night shootout

Picked up almost 62 points tonight to finish at 150.4. Now I need Hasselbeck to play this week or I'm dead.Used all 4 weeks:Chad OchocincoVincent JacksonPercy HarvinNot yet used:Matt LeinartEdgerrin JamesEddie RoyalChaz SchilensJay FeelyPanthers D

 

[gregjcross]

Rogers and Finley may have saved me.

the Donald Lee drop may have cost them the most. Could mean Finley gets established. Now I'm mad i took Olsen over him in this thing.

 

[kevzilla]

It appears I am done with 86 and change. A quick back-of-envelope calculation indicates I need a thousand consecutive miracles on Monday night.

Now at 123.4; I may have been a little hasty with that calculation. Turns out I only needed 875 consecutive miracles.

 

[nashua55]

Sitting at 114.3. Another week I might squeek by. Hopefully some more Fitz owners got knocked out.

 

[DeadhorseGM]

Rogers and Finley may have saved me.

 

[John Mamula]

My team has been eerily consistent so far...

144.70

147.55

148.85

146.70

 

[BassNBrew]

Ouch...I had a 3% chance of surviving and came up a point short.

 

[FFCardsFan]

Ouch...I had a 3% chance of surviving and came up a point short.

how do u know?

 

[Ahmad Rashad]

100 thanks to garrardneed the vikings to score more than 5; longwell to score more than 5 and whatever jermichael finley gets would be great. i guess i'm out.

You are a long ways from out. Right now the cutoff is about 90 so you are in better shape than a lot of teams. If I were you I would be routing against Grant and Rogers who are on a lot of roosters below you. You should have a much better than 50 percent chance of survival.

I'm only at 97.7, the lowest by far after Sunday I can remember ever having since I started doing this contest, so before checking here I thought for sure I was out or would need a big night from my guys. I have both Grant and Rogers, along with Finley and GB D, but I'd much rather see the Vikes beat the Packers than survive another week, so I'm going to root against all the Packers. I also have Harvin, Shiancoe, and Minn D, so probably can make it without any of the GB guys doing anything.The simulator has me at 100.0% survival, so I think I can keep to my normal cheering for the Vikes and against the Packers without worrying about surviving. Actually, I guess if I can survive even if all these guys put up duds tonight, that would be better for my odds later on, eliminating a bunch of people with the same guys.

Nice to see the Vikes beat the Packers and my guys pull through to push me up to 160.8. The only one whose score didn't count for me was GB D, as the Vikes' D outscored them. I'll take 8 sacks and a couple of turnovers from my D...

 

[Doug Drinen]

113.80

Updated ownership stats

Querier

Simulator report:

100+	   2	2	  100.090--99  4380  4129	94.380--89  2061  1781	86.470--79   988   760	76.960--69   498   333	66.950--59   252   146	57.940--49   139	67	48.230--39	97	24	24.720--29	65	24	36.910--19	30	 5	16.7  0-- 9	11	 0	 0.0

Roster size report:

+-------------+--------+-------+-----------+| roster size | number | alive | pct_alive |+-------------+--------+-------+-----------+| 20		  |   5181 |  2310 |	0.4459 || 21		  |   2032 |  1031 |	0.5074 || 22		  |   1445 |   890 |	0.6159 || 23		  |   1291 |   795 |	0.6158 || 24		  |   3328 |  2245 |	0.6746 || TOTAL	   |  13277 |  7271 |	0.5476 |+-------------+--------+-------+-----------+

 

[Short Corner]

113.80

Updated ownership stats

Querier

Simulator report:

100+ 2 2 100.090--99 4380 4129 94.380--89 2061 1781 86.470--79 988 760 76.960--69 498 333 66.950--59 252 146 57.940--49 139 67 48.230--39 97 24 24.720--29 65 24 36.910--19 30 5 16.7 0-- 9 11 0 0.0Roster size report:

+-------------+--------+-------+-----------+| roster size | number | alive | pct_alive |+-------------+--------+-------+-----------+| 20		  |   5181 |  2310 |	0.4459 || 21		  |   2032 |  1031 |	0.5074 || 22		  |   1445 |   890 |	0.6159 || 23		  |   1291 |   795 |	0.6158 || 24		  |   3328 |  2245 |	0.6746 || TOTAL	   |  13277 |  7271 |	0.5476 |+-------------+--------+-------+-----------+

A slight shift this week as the 22's survived at a better rate this week than the others. The 20's attrition rate went up again to 138% of their EV. 24's had their worst week with an attrition rate of 72% of their EV.Projecting out the final 250 should be over half 24-man rosters with the rest of the groups coming in between 20-40.

 

[simey]

I'm surprised my team is still alive after playing with no quarterback this week (hass hurt, leftwich benched, ryan on bye). Jermichael had a big game at just the right time for me.

 

[pizzatyme]

Tough week for me here. These players on BYE:

R. Grant

Colston

VJax

J. Finley

Saints D/ST

Fingers crossed.

 

[Balco]

Squeeked by, but this is the end for me. No tight ends (all on byes!), and likely no qb (Brees bye, quinn benched, Hasselback doubtful). I would need ridiculous games from my running backs/receivers, but the injury bug has hit there as well. Oh well.

 

[Sinn Fein]

Updated ownership stats

Something seems wrong about the ownership stats for Team Ds - specifically the elimination rates. If I am reading that correctly only the SF D had a lower elimination rate than which I don't think can be right. The weighted average of the elimination rates should be pretty close to 100 unless I am missing something. In other words - when you consider the entire universe of teams with Team Ds, it should equal the elimination rate for the entire universe - since all teams had to have a team D.

 

[firstseason1988]

I'm surprised my team is still alive after playing with no quarterback this week (hass hurt, leftwich benched, ryan on bye). Jermichael had a big game at just the right time for me.

I know the rules coming in and all that, but this is one of the issues I have with PPR. It devalues the most important position on the field, the QB. Don't really mean to start an argument in this thread about PPR vs non PPR but would be happy to debate you about it in another thread. And in a no extra cost contest like this, I won't complain about the rules so long they were giving them to me befoe hand, like they were. Movin on, I only have 5 WRs and one of them is Braylon Edwards, the long term of my team isn't looking so good. Good news for me is my team is pretty unique now and if my uniqueness comes through..., who knows? Surprised how few have P Manning.

 

[PatrickT]

I'm going to need huge days from Rodgers, Berrian and GB D as I'm 40 points shy of the cut line, (of course, those huge days will only up the cut line).Ryan on bye and Hass hurt, my RBs sucked even worse than I initially thought, and my WRs have just been horrid. Likely my last week in the contest.

Needed 40, got 58, sweeeeet! More evidence that the three QB theory is solid, along with three Ds.

 

[yabahos]

Updated ownership stats

Something seems wrong about the ownership stats for Team Ds - specifically the elimination rates. If I am reading that correctly only the SF D had a lower elimination rate than which I don't think can be right. The weighted average of the elimination rates should be pretty close to 100 unless I am missing something. In other words - when you consider the entire universe of teams with Team Ds, it should equal the elimination rate for the entire universe - since all teams had to have a team D.

Or maybe its telling us that team D just doesn't matter. I don't have it accessible to me now, but I know I looked at TE, K, DT, scoring on a weekly basis (through wk 3) and I think the average D was around 6 points. With the talk/speculation that next year they could go to unlimited roster sizes, I am tracking how a low budget team of about about 48 players would do. I think the highest value guy on the team was like $11 for QB.Basically, I think the numbers say - if you hit it right on a D (i.e. big week) they can carry you through, but in the big picture the scoring difference between defense isn't big enough to make a difference.

 

[PatrickT]

I'm going to need huge days from Rodgers, Berrian and GB D as I'm 40 points shy of the cut line, (of course, those huge days will only up the cut line).Ryan on bye and Hass hurt, my RBs sucked even worse than I initially thought, and my WRs have just been horrid. Likely my last week in the contest.

Needed 40, got 58, sweeeeet! More evidence that the three QB theory is solid, along with three Ds.

Which, consequently, means Organized Chaos gets another 2 bucks so I can keep up with my team on the fantasy star.

 

[Go Pack]

I am very surprised to have made it past this week with no QB and lots of injury/bye week issues. Thank you Finley/Gould/Saints D/Mason. Now I need Parker/Hasselback to get healthy. Week 5 is likely to be another nail biter

Matt Ryan $19 23.05 28.30 9.85 0.00

Matt Hasselbeck $17 30.25 6.05 0.00 0.00

Byron Leftwich $4 20.10 30.80 0.40 0.00

Brian Westbrook $34 14.70 8.10 0.00 0.00

Brandon Jacobs $32 7.30 5.80 15.20 9.30

Willie Parker $16 2.90 5.50 19.90 0.00

Ahmad Bradshaw $8 8.60 5.50 10.40 6.40

LeSean McCoy $7 5.20 7.50 15.80 0.00

Michael Bush $6 12.40 5.70 6.00 1.90

Tashard Choice $2 2.60 1.60 19.80 10.50

James Davis $2 2.40 0.00 1.60 0.00

Marques Colston $28 12.00 29.80 10.70 5.30

Donald Driver $21 7.90 21.90 20.80 9.50

Chris Henry $12 2.80 7.50 2.90 5.60

Derrick Mason $9 8.70 6.10 22.80 21.80

Nate Burleson $5 20.40 8.60 20.10 7.10

Laurent Robinson $2 13.70 17.40 4.60 0.00

John Carlson $11 30.50 13.60 7.30 11.40

Jermichael Finley $3 2.10 11.60 0.00 27.80

Robbie Gould $2 9.00 7.00 6.00 15.00

Jeff Reed $2 9.00 2.00 8.00 10.00

San Diego Chargers $5 7.00 3.00 11.00 13.00

Seattle Seahawks $2 5.00 4.00 6.00 2.00

New Orleans Saints $1 7.00 16.00 8.00 24.00

---------------------------------------------------------

TOTAL 158.65 163.70 155.35 136.40

CUTOFF 120.88 130.04 126.34 113.79

 

[Sinn Fein]

Updated ownership stats

Something seems wrong about the ownership stats for Team Ds - specifically the elimination rates. If I am reading that correctly only the SF D had a lower elimination rate than which I don't think can be right. The weighted average of the elimination rates should be pretty close to 100 unless I am missing something. In other words - when you consider the entire universe of teams with Team Ds, it should equal the elimination rate for the entire universe - since all teams had to have a team D.

Or maybe its telling us that team D just doesn't matter. I don't have it accessible to me now, but I know I looked at TE, K, DT, scoring on a weekly basis (through wk 3) and I think the average D was around 6 points. With the talk/speculation that next year they could go to unlimited roster sizes, I am tracking how a low budget team of about about 48 players would do. I think the highest value guy on the team was like $11 for QB.Basically, I think the numbers say - if you hit it right on a D (i.e. big week) they can carry you through, but in the big picture the scoring difference between defense isn't big enough to make a difference.

You can't have every team eliminated at a higher rate than the average elimination rate. If Defense did not matter then you would see every team close to 100 - meaning they were eliminated at the same rate as other D's.

 

[Organized Chaos]

Ouch...I had a 3% chance of surviving and came up a point short.

how do u know?

we post an early VERY unofficial projected cutoff after the games on Sunday and Monday at http://thefantasystar.com/fbg.php

 

[Short Corner]

Updated ownership stats

Something seems wrong about the ownership stats for Team Ds - specifically the elimination rates. If I am reading that correctly only the SF D had a lower elimination rate than which I don't think can be right. The weighted average of the elimination rates should be pretty close to 100 unless I am missing something. In other words - when you consider the entire universe of teams with Team Ds, it should equal the elimination rate for the entire universe - since all teams had to have a team D.

Counter example:3 teams/ 1 survivor

Team A has one defense and gets bounced

Team B has 5 Defenses and advances.

Team C has 2 defenses and advances

Note how the weighted survival rate is skewed by the number of teams taking the free ride. The reverse can happen as well. I don't have access to the raw data, but this weeks results seem to show that teams with more DSTs on their roster fared better THIS week.

 

[Genedoc]

Oof. I was at 88% to survive and didn't. Thanks Greg Jennings.

 

[belljr]

I'll be out next week. Injuries have left my Rb's thin and the bye week for my others is coming at a bad time.

 

[Sinn Fein]

The numbers on the right are the relative elimination rates for that player, by week.

For example, Aaron Rodgers has a 150 under week one. That means that Rodgers owners were

eliminated at a 50 percent greater rate than all owners in general in week one.

Arizona Cardinals    $ 3     7.3   60.6 | 125  84 141 159 
Green Bay Packers    $ 3    24.8   60.1 | 125 123 140 178 
New Orleans Saints   $ 1    10.3   57.1 | 210 109 280 134 
Cincinnati Bengals   $ 1     7.0   55.7 | 159 187 168 165 
Houston Texans       $ 2     6.1   54.5 | 190 196 220 166 
San Diego Chargers   $ 5     7.3   54.2 | 128 147 139 171 
San Francisco 49ers  $ 2     2.8   53.1 | 181 236 218  67 
Dallas Cowboys       $ 3     6.9   53.0 | 153 178 109 300 
Seattle Seahawks     $ 2     4.7   51.8 | 143 225 230 311 
Buffalo Bills        $ 2     3.6   51.3 | 147 119 280 289 
Baltimore Ravens     $ 6     8.4   50.4 | 150 187 141 168 
Minnesota Vikings    $ 6     8.1   50.0 | 171 171 163 141 
Miami Dolphins       $ 3     2.4   49.3 | 155 239 300 112 
Philadelphia Eagles  $ 5     4.1   49.1 |  28 171 164 233 
New York Jets        $ 4     6.1   48.8 | 165 189 139 250 
Chicago Bears        $ 5     5.1   48.6 | 174 188 200 137 
New York Giants      $ 6     3.8   48.6 |  96 116 190 269 
Oakland Raiders      $ 1     6.6   47.5 | 175 220 270 357 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers $ 3     1.3   47.1 | 155 162 336 236 
Atlanta Falcons      $ 2     2.6   46.9 | 106 178 354 391 
Washington Redskins  $ 3     3.1   46.9 | 185 247 264 260 
Tennessee Titans     $ 4     4.6   45.9 | 142 232 182 296 
Indianapolis Colts   $ 3     1.6   45.7 | 208 284 145 219 
Pittsburgh Steelers  $ 7    11.4   45.4 | 147 213 160 197 
Detroit Lions        $ 1     1.8   44.9 | 126 227 340 243 
Carolina Panthers    $ 3     2.0   44.6 | 161 220 210 247 
Cleveland Browns     $ 1     3.0   43.9 | 165 179 281 287 
Jacksonville Jaguars $ 3     1.3   43.4 | 195 225 274 313 
Denver Broncos       $ 1     3.2   42.7 | 197 208 304 324 
New England Patriots $ 5     1.5   40.2 | 199 249 308 226 
Kansas City Chiefs   $ 1     1.6   39.7 | 177 237 390 344 
St. Louis Rams       $ 1     1.4   37.6 | 246 362 460 663

Unless I am missing something - it is impossible for all teams with a Team D to have been eliminated at a greater rate than average.

This is saying if you had St. Louis you were eliminated at a 563% greater rate than all teams. The Saints were eliminated at a 34% rate greater than average - despite being the 2nd highest scoring D this week. All teams, except SF, which is held by only 2.8% of the teams, were eliminated at rates far greater than average. I think this is wrong. Not life-altering wrong, but it seems something is wrong in the formula.

 

[perry147]

I'll be out next week. Injuries have left my Rb's thin and the bye week for my others is coming at a bad time.

Don't give up hope, I advanced this week with only 7 points from my RBs.

 

[Fennis]

Strange scoring distribution at the cut line. My final number is still 113.8, but I wouldn't be surprised if it could reach as low as 113.65 once scoring errors are reconciled.Late surge by Rodgers pushed me through, finished at 132.1. On to next week, where I must manage to survive a zero QB week with Rodger's bye and Leftwich benched. NOT a good thing to look forward to, hoping my studs kick it up a notch this week...

by the skin of your teeth?

7243. Entry 107504 113.80 7244. Entry 102457 113.80 7245. Entry 100140 113.80 7246. Entry 103601 113.80 7247. Entry 106306 113.80 7248. Entry 107937 113.80 7249. Entry 103018 113.80 7250. Entry 108201 113.80 7251. Entry 100019 113.80

 

[kface]

thanks to finley and the surprise performance of mewelde moore i got all the way up to 180

 

[joffer]

Rogers and Finley may have saved me.

 

[a_troll00]

well, I just missed the cut with 113.2. My WRs have been a bunch of bums this season.

 

[shredhead]

Rogers and Finley may have saved me.

I thought for sure I would be out this week, but when I checked, I was surprised to sneak by with 10 points to spare. Thank You Rodgers and Finley!

 

[Lehigh98]

Rodgers and Finley saved my ### too. Doesn't matter though, my team is slowly falling apart and I'll probably be out next week relying on the Sanchize as my only QB. I actually had to use a 0 at one of my spots this week...

1 2 3 4

---------------------------------------------------------

Aaron Rodgers $27 15.90 23.35 35.25 31.80

Mark Sanchez $9 19.20 13.95 26.55 6.30

Byron Leftwich $4 20.10 30.80 0.40 0.00

Ryan Grant $24 13.20 14.30 10.90 12.10

Ray Rice $21 13.00 10.70 15.50 17.70

Willie Parker $16 2.90 5.50 19.90 0.00

Chris Wells $15 2.90 4.40 -0.20 0.00

LeSean McCoy $7 5.20 7.50 15.80 0.00

Edgerrin James $1 3.00 0.60 0.70 2.70

Roddy White $33 9.20 17.30 6.40 0.00

Marques Colston $28 12.00 29.80 10.70 5.30

Chad Ochocinco $27 14.70 19.10 10.40 17.40

Kevin Curtis $7 4.60 7.40 0.00 0.00

Jeremy Maclin $4 0.00 3.20 7.20 0.00

Chaz Schilens $3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Brent Celek $7 18.70 22.40 28.40 0.00

Jermichael Finley $3 2.10 11.60 0.00 27.80

Chris Baker $1 2.20 1.60 13.20 0.00

Jason Elam $3 11.00 4.00 4.00 0.00

Robbie Gould $2 9.00 7.00 6.00 15.00

Phil Dawson $1 9.00 8.00 0.00 0.00

Arizona Cardinals $3 6.00 16.00 2.00 0.00

Green Bay Packers $3 10.00 12.00 7.00 8.00

Oakland Raiders $1 7.00 6.00 2.00 8.00

---------------------------------------------------------

TOTAL 127.10 180.00 156.15 137.80

CUTOFF 120.88 130.04 126.34 113.79

 

[SKribbles]

Annnnnnnd done. 3 straight weeks of 170+ then only put up 103 this week... and I only had Turner on a bye. Rough.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

My runningback core is banged up - Felix/FWP/James Davis all hurt. Bad bye week this week as well.

Entry 101020

This entry is still alive.

1 2 3 4

---------------------------------------------------------

Matt Schaub $20 7.90 42.25 32.50 16.10

Matt Hasselbeck $17 30.25 6.05 0.00 0.00

DeAngelo Williams $37 15.90 18.60 8.40 0.00

Willie Parker $16 2.90 5.50 19.90 0.00

Felix Jones $11 2.20 15.60 11.90 0.00

Ahmad Bradshaw $8 8.60 5.50 10.40 6.40

Michael Bush $6 12.40 5.70 6.00 1.90

James Davis $2 2.40 0.00 1.60 0.00

Marques Colston $28 12.00 29.80 10.70 5.30

Donald Driver $21 7.90 21.90 20.80 9.50

Steve Smith $12 14.00 29.40 19.30 36.40

Chris Henry $12 2.80 7.50 2.90 5.60

Derrick Mason $9 8.70 6.10 22.80 21.80

Isaac Bruce $5 10.60 7.50 5.80 5.00

Percy Harvin $5 14.80 16.50 8.30 5.90

Laurent Robinson $2 13.70 17.40 4.60 0.00

Dallas Clark $18 9.90 34.80 23.40 20.00

John Carlson $11 30.50 13.60 7.30 11.40

Jermichael Finley $3 2.10 11.60 0.00 27.80

Josh Brown $1 0.00 1.00 8.00 0.00

Steve Hauschka $1 10.00 8.00 12.00 3.00

Dallas Cowboys $3 0.00 0.00 15.00 5.00

Seattle Seahawks $2 5.00 4.00 6.00 2.00

---------------------------------------------------------

TOTAL 158.55 221.75 188.30 147.90

CUTOFF 120.88 130.04 126.34 113.79

 

[BuckeyeArt]

The numbers on the right are the relative elimination rates for that player, by week.For example, Aaron Rodgers has a 150 under week one. That means that Rodgers owners were eliminated at a 50 percent greater rate than all owners in general in week one.

Arizona Cardinals    $ 3     7.3   60.6 | 125  84 141 159 Green Bay Packers    $ 3    24.8   60.1 | 125 123 140 178 New Orleans Saints   $ 1    10.3   57.1 | 210 109 280 134 Cincinnati Bengals   $ 1     7.0   55.7 | 159 187 168 165 Houston Texans       $ 2     6.1   54.5 | 190 196 220 166 San Diego Chargers   $ 5     7.3   54.2 | 128 147 139 171 San Francisco 49ers  $ 2     2.8   53.1 | 181 236 218  67 Dallas Cowboys       $ 3     6.9   53.0 | 153 178 109 300 Seattle Seahawks     $ 2     4.7   51.8 | 143 225 230 311 Buffalo Bills        $ 2     3.6   51.3 | 147 119 280 289 Baltimore Ravens     $ 6     8.4   50.4 | 150 187 141 168 Minnesota Vikings    $ 6     8.1   50.0 | 171 171 163 141 Miami Dolphins       $ 3     2.4   49.3 | 155 239 300 112 Philadelphia Eagles  $ 5     4.1   49.1 |  28 171 164 233 New York Jets        $ 4     6.1   48.8 | 165 189 139 250 Chicago Bears        $ 5     5.1   48.6 | 174 188 200 137 New York Giants      $ 6     3.8   48.6 |  96 116 190 269 Oakland Raiders      $ 1     6.6   47.5 | 175 220 270 357 Tampa Bay Buccaneers $ 3     1.3   47.1 | 155 162 336 236 Atlanta Falcons      $ 2     2.6   46.9 | 106 178 354 391 Washington Redskins  $ 3     3.1   46.9 | 185 247 264 260 Tennessee Titans     $ 4     4.6   45.9 | 142 232 182 296 Indianapolis Colts   $ 3     1.6   45.7 | 208 284 145 219 Pittsburgh Steelers  $ 7    11.4   45.4 | 147 213 160 197 Detroit Lions        $ 1     1.8   44.9 | 126 227 340 243 Carolina Panthers    $ 3     2.0   44.6 | 161 220 210 247 Cleveland Browns     $ 1     3.0   43.9 | 165 179 281 287 Jacksonville Jaguars $ 3     1.3   43.4 | 195 225 274 313 Denver Broncos       $ 1     3.2   42.7 | 197 208 304 324 New England Patriots $ 5     1.5   40.2 | 199 249 308 226 Kansas City Chiefs   $ 1     1.6   39.7 | 177 237 390 344 St. Louis Rams       $ 1     1.4   37.6 | 246 362 460 663

Unless I am missing something - it is impossible for all teams with a Team D to have been eliminated at a greater rate than average. This is saying if you had St. Louis you were eliminated at a 563% greater rate than all teams. The Saints were eliminated at a 34% rate greater than average - despite being the 2nd highest scoring D this week. All teams, except SF, which is held by only 2.8% of the teams, were eliminated at rates far greater than average. I think this is wrong. Not life-altering wrong, but it seems something is wrong in the formula.

Using the contest querier for Green Bay, they advance at a 87% rate this week vs the overall contest rate of 85%. They should have an elimination rate of 85 this week instead of 178. Clearly something wrong.

 

[thehornet]

Thanks Rodgers

 

[Caveman_Nick]

I am thinking week 5 might be fork time for me

Not Playing Due to Bye Week Or Injury

QB - Aaron Rodgers - 27

QB - Matt Ryan - 19

RB - DeAngelo Williams - 37

RB - Ryan Grant - 24

RB - Ray Rice - 21

RB - Kevin Faulk - 8

RB - Correll Buckhalter - 2

WR - Marques Colston - 28

WR - Bernard Berrian - 21

WR - Earl Bennett - 11

WR - Justin Gage - 8

WR - Nate Burleson - 5

WR - Davone Bess - 3

WR - Deon Butler - 2

WR - Laurent Robinson - 2

TE - Owen Daniels - 13

TE - Jermichael Finley - 3

TE - Chris Baker - 1

PK - Neil Rackers - 3

PK - Robbie Gould - 2

PK - Josh Brown - 1

TD - San Diego Chargers - 5

TD - Arizona Cardinals - 3

TD - Oakland Raiders - 1

 

[Lehigh98]

I am thinking week 5 might be fork time for me

Not Playing Due to Bye Week Or Injury

QB - Aaron Rodgers - 27

RB - Ryan Grant - 24

TE - Jermichael Finley - 3

Well, each of these guys were about 33% owned so that's around 3000+ I guess?This week they'll be cutting from 7250 to 6100 so 1,150.

If we're just in the top half of the remaining Rodgers/Grant/Finley owners we might be ok.

 

[Dodge]

What's the link for your percentage to win next week? I can never find it.

 

[jon_mx]

I am thinking week 5 might be fork time for me

Not Playing Due to Bye Week Or Injury

QB - Aaron Rodgers - 27

QB - Matt Ryan - 19

RB - DeAngelo Williams - 37

RB - Ryan Grant - 24

RB - Ray Rice - 21

RB - Kevin Faulk - 8

RB - Correll Buckhalter - 2

WR - Marques Colston - 28

WR - Bernard Berrian - 21

WR - Earl Bennett - 11

WR - Justin Gage - 8

WR - Nate Burleson - 5

WR - Davone Bess - 3

WR - Deon Butler - 2

WR - Laurent Robinson - 2

TE - Owen Daniels - 13

[color = red]TE - Jermichael Finley - 3

TE - Chris Baker - 1

PK - Neil Rackers - 3

PK - Robbie Gould - 2

PK - Josh Brown - 1

TD - San Diego Chargers - 5

TD - Arizona Cardinals - 3

TD - Oakland Raiders - 1

I would give you a better than average shot at survival. You are covered at QB better than a lot of people. I have 1/3rd of my cap on Bye this week, not good planning. But a lot of people are in the same boat with GB and NO. If Ryan, Williams, Rice, Gage, Burleson have good weeks, I think you will be ok. At least you have guys who will be out on the field most the game. I am guessing there might be a couple hundred teams with Brees or Rogers taking a zero at QB because of numerous injuries.

 

[jon_mx]

What's the link for your percentage to win next week? I can never find it.

He has to run the simulation.

 

[G-Money]

Yep.........with Rodgers on bye (and Pennington done), I have a fat zero sitting at QB next week. I can only hope that quite a few others are in the same type boat, and the rest of my team can produce. Not feeling too confident.

 

[apalmer]

Despite my 93% probability of advancing in the Turk's first sim run, I'm out with 108 points. A month ago, I didn't think Week 4 would be an issue, with only 1 player (DWill) on bye. Injuries to Hass, Robinson, FWP, & Davis, the same week as subpar performances from Romo, Lynch, Olsen, Daniels, Randy Moss, Colston & Burleson were too much for Britt and Mason to overcome. The painful part is that I had Ben and Garrard as my QB's through about 900 roster changes, then decided to "upgrade" to Romo and Hass at the last minute. :(