* Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 (-114 @ Pinnacle)
* Steelers/Ravens UNDER 34 (-103 @ Pinnacle)
Before the season started the last thing I would have expected would've been for the Steelers to be opening the year 4-0 without Roethlisberger. However, it looks like there's a very high chance of that becoming a reality after this weekend. The Ravens enter this contest with some questions on offense, first and foremost the status of Ray Rice. While he's expected to play, how effective will he be with his injured knee? Baltimore is only running the ball for 3.14 yards per carry right now, 4th worst in the league, and with their star RB at less than 100% and against the stout Pittsburgh defense I can't see them mustering much production on the ground. As far as their passing game goes, it's been less than impressive so far this season, with their best numbers this season coming last week against a Cleveland defense that's nowhere near as good as the Steelers'. In their first two games, matched up with the Jets and Bengals, Flacco struggled handling the pressure these two defensive units put on him and he made mistakes as a result. With a Pittsburgh offense that's just as good, if not better than both of these defenses, I expect to see Flacco struggle again as the Ravens' offense fails to produce many points.
On Pittsburgh's side of the ball, their defense has been the big story so far this season. However, their offense has quietly done just enough to win games, even with their 4th string QB Charlie Batch running the offense. Rashard Mendenhall has been very effective running the ball for the Steelers, as Pittsburgh is 6th in the NFL with 4.69 yards per rush attempt. While Baltimore has the reputation of an elite run defense, their performance hasn't indicated it so far this year. Baltimore's defense is allowing a surprising 4.73 yards per carry, 7th worst in the league. This indicates to me that Mendenhall will still be able to produce on the ground this week for the Steelers, a very important aspect in this game as the Steelers then won't be forced to ask as much of their QB. Furthermore, while Baltimore's pass defense has actually held up alright so far, there are still issues in that secondary. We may see Mike Wallace get free for a big play much like last week against Tampa Bay, but overall I do think that Batch will struggle a bit against this defense and the big plays will be limited. This will stay a low scoring game, with both defenses bearing down and playing good football. However, I just see Pittsburgh with a better chance to generate offense and force Flacco into mistakes with their elite defense. Steelers should win this one and cruise to their 4-0 start.
* Cleveland Browns +3 (-121 @ Pinnacle)
It's very strange to me to be picking the Browns rather than against them for once, however I love their chances in this situation. The Bengals are currently one of the most overrated teams in football in my opinion. Their offense is nothing special at all, and Carson Palmer's current level of play is making it look like he's lucky to be a starter. The Bengals currently have the 8th worst passing game and 6th worst running game in the NFL, and the Browns' defense may not be great, but it's definitely on the rise from where it was last year. While Palmer has only thrown three interceptions so far this year, he really should have thrown about 10 now as defenders keep dropping easy interceptions. Palmer will continue making these bad decisions, and sooner or later his luck is going to run out. I think this is that week, and he turns the ball over at least two times against this improved Cleveland defense. On Cleveland's side of the ball, while it's uncertain who will be starting at QB for them this week I don't think it really makes much of a difference as both Delhomme and Wallace play at a very similar level. I think the real area that the Browns can excel at offense though this week is running the ball. Peyton Hillis has been running the ball great so far this year, as he's running for 5.6 yards per carry. The Browns finally got him more involved in the offense last week, giving him 22 carries for 144 yards. Matched up this week against the Bengals, I think we could see another game in the vicinity of 150 yards for Hillis, as the Bengals are allowing 4.5 yards per carry on defense, 10th worst in the league. The Browns will be able to move the ball on the Bengals, and given that Cinci has a habit of playing down to the level of their opponents I think there's a great chance the Browns win this game outright.
I'm still mulling over a Monday night play, I'll post it up tomorrow if I decide on it. Good luck this week everyone!
