Patriots being investigated after Colts game (1 Viewer)

[rick6668]

Neither Brady nor Gostkowski were ever asked to hand over their cell phones. That's Pats-spin. They were asked to cooperate and supply certain texts and calls. Everyone asks like they wanted Brady to leave his phone with them for a few days with the league having free access to anything on it. And why do you suppose the Pats didn't allow the league to interview the equipment guys another time? But went ahead and fired them?

Um, if all they wanted were certain texts and calls how come Goodell wouldn't accept his phone records at the appeal?

Also, the league interviewed Mcnally 3 times and Wells interviewed him once, they asked to interview him a fifth time, to which the Pats said they thought it was excessive. Its not like they said no outright.

[SIZE=13.0080003738403px]According to Wells, McNally was interviewed four times. But not by him and his team.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=13.0080003738403px]McNally was interviewed three times by NFL investigators, and then Wells Report investigators got one shot at him, Wells explained. [/SIZE]

“The Patriots provided me, in my opinion, with substantial cooperation except in one critical and crucial area," Wells said. "I wanted to do a second interview with Jim McNally. Jim McNally was the second Patriots person I interviewed. I wanted -- after I interviewed others including Tom Brady -- to do a second interview of McNally, to put other questions to him."

Wells wanted to ask McNally about the text message in which McNally called himself "the deflator," among other things. McNally, who resides in New Hampshire, was not provided by the Patriots to do another sit-down interview with Wells.

[SIZE=13.0080003738403px]"I asked for a second interview," Wells said. "[/SIZE][SIZE=13.0080003738403px]I said I would go to New Hampshire, I would interview him in the morning, afternoon night, I would do it whenever he was free. And they said not only could I not interview him, they wouldn’t even tell him of my request for an interview."[/SIZE]

[SIZE=13.0080003738403px]As Wells tells it, not only did the Patriots not provide McNally for a second interview. He said the team also asked him to disregard anything that had been uncovered by NFL investigators during their interactions with McNally.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=13.0080003738403px]"NFL security people talked to McNally on three occasions," Wells said. "They talked to him on the night of the game for approximately 40 minutes. T[/SIZE][SIZE=13.0080003738403px]hey talked to him the next morning by telephone for about 20 minutes. They talked to him in person I believe the next day for about 30 minutes. Those are three interviews.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=13.0080003738403px]"The Patriots urged me when I got to the case to start fresh, not to pay any attention to what NFL security had done. In fact they thought the people at NFL Security were biased. They applauded when I said I wanted to start fresh. And for them to later say I couldn’t have a second interview with the most important person in the case was a lack of cooperation."[/SIZE]

Why would that be excessive when the Patriots themselves told him to disregard the first three interviews? (Which all took place roughly within 24 hours)

This line that he was interviewed 4 times already and didn't want him to be interviewed for a 5th time doesn't make ANY sense.

 

[Bayhawks]

I totally see how you think Brady was unreasonable by not sharing his phone or text records. The nflpa made that an issue early though. They didn't want a player rep giving over their phone. This was a standoff between a union and an employer and brady got caught in the middle.

And while I understand how reasonable it sounds to have the league ask for just a little concession, like just printing out a few texts and emails, the union and Brady's lawyer said no. As they should. The league didn't have a right to go to his personal communication device and accepting their request would have eroded player protections.

The league responding by slapping him with a four game suspension and million dollar fine seems more than a little harsh, but failing to tell him that was on the table may have been enough to get the ruling vacated.

Personally I think the call to bring a new phone to the meeting was made by the union. They didn't want brady buckling and giving his phone over to the investigator. But that would never get said aloud in one of these hearings. But it's reasonable enough that I don't think the phone destruction had anything to do with any incriminating data on his phone. And aside from the phone, wells said he was very cooperative. So it's not fair to categorize brady as seeming guilty because he didn't try to defend himself properly.

These (the bolded sections ) is patently false. First, Brady never refused to give over his phone, because his phone was never requested-copies of electronic communications were. Second, Brady refused the assistance of the NFLPA until after his suspension was handed out. During one of the two recent settlement hearings, Kessler (NFLPA lawyer) admitted that Brady refused to share his records on the advice of Don Yee, NOT the NFLPA, and he (Kessler, NFLPA lawyer) admitted that Brady handled that situation poorly. The idea that Brady didn't give up his phone because his is a union man, and the NFLPA didn't want him to do that is completely fabricated. The NFLPA wasn't involved when that decision was made, or when the phone was destroyed. After the fact, they may have jumped onto the story Brady told of not wanting to set a precedent, but he made that decision on his own, it wasn't a legal strategy enacted by the NFLPA.

 

[espnespn]

I don't really care if they're guilty of deflating footballs, but since you asked:

1) balls drop by close to 2 psi on a cold game day, and the largest difference explained by deliberate deflation is less than half a psi. This was hardly their first outdoor game. So why would they manually deflate balls by such a tiny amount when nature was going to do the rest? I find the argument that the reef used the Guage he thought he did more compelling than the argument that they cheated, but only a little.

2) the deflator nickname is not particularly concerning to me because it wasn't his actual nickname, and his job included the legal inflation and deflation of footballs. I also don't believe that anyone has a dorito in place of their dink.

3) kraft has already said he regrets not fighting the penalty but he's always been 1 of 32 and willing to take his licks to make the league successful. He also made his decision before people toe the Wells report to shreds. That wasn't an admission of guilt, it was acceptance of the league findings. Now that he's had time to review them, like everyone else, he is more skeptical and came out as vocally against the league as I've ever heard him

4) it was initially reported that the league asked the Patriots to suspend the equipment guys. Then the league denied it. I don't know the truth and neither do you so I don't consider that evidence one way or the other.

5) the "destroying the phone" meme isn't evidence of anything, either. The nflpa wanted this case to go to court from day one. Between their counsel and the NFL saying they didn't need his phone and then that they did, there are plenty of reasons for him to have reasonably replaced his phone. It's also possible that he didn't want questionable but innoccuous private texts to be misinterpreted the way dorito dink's were.

I agree that there's plenty of smoke here and that when there's smoke. There's probably fire. It's also possible he didn't do anything and that no balls were deflated. I'm not making categorical statements either way. They might literally have done nothing wrong. They might have done something wrong. I don't know. But what i do know is that for the NFL to have come down as hard as they did without firm evidence doesn't mean they have even more evidence of wrong doing in some back room somewhere. They may lose a court case that hurts them in future arbitrations and labor negotiations. This is all of their evidence, yet they've somehow created the impression that they're might be even more out there when the whole purpose of this was to protect the perception of the integrity of the game. That's a failure no matter how you look at it.

So "The Deflator" and destroyed phone mean nothing to you? That is the true test of a Patriots fan. Not sure why I decided to try to talk logic with a guy with the word Boston in his username. The team DID fire the ball guys. Kraft DID immediately accept the stiffest fine and draft loss in league history. Between The Deflator, the destroyed phone, firing the ball boys, and Kraft's willingness to accept penalty, only a Patriots fan would have any doubt about what happened.

Now, if you want to go the Ryan Braun route and simply hope to get off on technicalities, then that's understandable. But to pretend they didn't cheat (again) is the worst case of blind homerism I've ever seen.

Pretending a federal judge didn't publicly rip apart the NFL investigation for no evidence is the worst case of blind Salty Hatred I've ever seen.

A skeptical Berman sounded unconvinced: "What is the evidence of a scheme or conspiracy that covers the Jan. 18 game? I'm having trouble finding it."

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/roger-goodell-greeted-boos-deflategate-hearing-article-1.2323018

 

[JuniorNB]

I don't really care if they're guilty of deflating footballs, but since you asked:

1) balls drop by close to 2 psi on a cold game day, and the largest difference explained by deliberate deflation is less than half a psi. This was hardly their first outdoor game. So why would they manually deflate balls by such a tiny amount when nature was going to do the rest? I find the argument that the reef used the Guage he thought he did more compelling than the argument that they cheated, but only a little.

2) the deflator nickname is not particularly concerning to me because it wasn't his actual nickname, and his job included the legal inflation and deflation of footballs. I also don't believe that anyone has a dorito in place of their dink.

3) kraft has already said he regrets not fighting the penalty but he's always been 1 of 32 and willing to take his licks to make the league successful. He also made his decision before people toe the Wells report to shreds. That wasn't an admission of guilt, it was acceptance of the league findings. Now that he's had time to review them, like everyone else, he is more skeptical and came out as vocally against the league as I've ever heard him

4) it was initially reported that the league asked the Patriots to suspend the equipment guys. Then the league denied it. I don't know the truth and neither do you so I don't consider that evidence one way or the other.

5) the "destroying the phone" meme isn't evidence of anything, either. The nflpa wanted this case to go to court from day one. Between their counsel and the NFL saying they didn't need his phone and then that they did, there are plenty of reasons for him to have reasonably replaced his phone. It's also possible that he didn't want questionable but innoccuous private texts to be misinterpreted the way dorito dink's were.

I agree that there's plenty of smoke here and that when there's smoke. There's probably fire. It's also possible he didn't do anything and that no balls were deflated. I'm not making categorical statements either way. They might literally have done nothing wrong. They might have done something wrong. I don't know. But what i do know is that for the NFL to have come down as hard as they did without firm evidence doesn't mean they have even more evidence of wrong doing in some back room somewhere. They may lose a court case that hurts them in future arbitrations and labor negotiations. This is all of their evidence, yet they've somehow created the impression that they're might be even more out there when the whole purpose of this was to protect the perception of the integrity of the game. That's a failure no matter how you look at it.

So "The Deflator" and destroyed phone mean nothing to you? That is the true test of a Patriots fan. Not sure why I decided to try to talk logic with a guy with the word Boston in his username. The team DID fire the ball guys. Kraft DID immediately accept the stiffest fine and draft loss in league history. Between The Deflator, the destroyed phone, firing the ball boys, and Kraft's willingness to accept penalty, only a Patriots fan would have any doubt about what happened.Now, if you want to go the Ryan Braun route and simply hope to get off on technicalities, then that's understandable. But to pretend they didn't cheat (again) is the worst case of blind homerism I've ever seen.

Pretending a federal judge didn't publicly rip apart the NFL investigation for no evidence is the worst case of blind Salty Hatred I've ever seen.

A skeptical Berman sounded unconvinced: "What is the evidence of a scheme or conspiracy that covers the Jan. 18 game? I'm having trouble finding it."

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/roger-goodell-greeted-boos-deflategate-hearing-article-1.2323018

I saw that 50 times. He's not saying the balls weren't tampered with. He's having trouble seeing where there's proof Brady conspired with the ball boys. Well no ####. Brady destroyed his phone for that very reason.

 

[BassNBrew]

If I'm the judge I take Brady and Goodell behind closed doors. I recommend the NFL give Brady a second appeal hearing based upon the new information and suggest to Brady that he admits non cooperation. Hopefully the two sides get it and make this go away.

 

[Thunderlips]

I don't really care if they're guilty of deflating footballs, but since you asked:

1) balls drop by close to 2 psi on a cold game day, and the largest difference explained by deliberate deflation is less than half a psi. This was hardly their first outdoor game. So why would they manually deflate balls by such a tiny amount when nature was going to do the rest? I find the argument that the reef used the Guage he thought he did more compelling than the argument that they cheated, but only a little.

2) the deflator nickname is not particularly concerning to me because it wasn't his actual nickname, and his job included the legal inflation and deflation of footballs. I also don't believe that anyone has a dorito in place of their dink.

3) kraft has already said he regrets not fighting the penalty but he's always been 1 of 32 and willing to take his licks to make the league successful. He also made his decision before people toe the Wells report to shreds. That wasn't an admission of guilt, it was acceptance of the league findings. Now that he's had time to review them, like everyone else, he is more skeptical and came out as vocally against the league as I've ever heard him

4) it was initially reported that the league asked the Patriots to suspend the equipment guys. Then the league denied it. I don't know the truth and neither do you so I don't consider that evidence one way or the other.

5) the "destroying the phone" meme isn't evidence of anything, either. The nflpa wanted this case to go to court from day one. Between their counsel and the NFL saying they didn't need his phone and then that they did, there are plenty of reasons for him to have reasonably replaced his phone. It's also possible that he didn't want questionable but innoccuous private texts to be misinterpreted the way dorito dink's were.

I agree that there's plenty of smoke here and that when there's smoke. There's probably fire. It's also possible he didn't do anything and that no balls were deflated. I'm not making categorical statements either way. They might literally have done nothing wrong. They might have done something wrong. I don't know. But what i do know is that for the NFL to have come down as hard as they did without firm evidence doesn't mean they have even more evidence of wrong doing in some back room somewhere. They may lose a court case that hurts them in future arbitrations and labor negotiations. This is all of their evidence, yet they've somehow created the impression that they're might be even more out there when the whole purpose of this was to protect the perception of the integrity of the game. That's a failure no matter how you look at it.

So "The Deflator" and destroyed phone mean nothing to you? That is the true test of a Patriots fan. Not sure why I decided to try to talk logic with a guy with the word Boston in his username. The team DID fire the ball guys. Kraft DID immediately accept the stiffest fine and draft loss in league history. Between The Deflator, the destroyed phone, firing the ball boys, and Kraft's willingness to accept penalty, only a Patriots fan would have any doubt about what happened.

Now, if you want to go the Ryan Braun route and simply hope to get off on technicalities, then that's understandable. But to pretend they didn't cheat (again) is the worst case of blind homerism I've ever seen.

This post is the perfect example of who knows what to believe in terms of what was reported and how accurate the information has been. (You are entitled to your opinion of what happened and how severe an infraction it is.)

Depending upon what you believe and what you've read . . .

- The Patriots were told by the league to suspend the ball attendants (who are not fired but suspended).

- By league ownership rules, Kraft was not entitled to an appeal like players are, so his only recourse was to sue the league and the 31 other owners.

- The huge majority of what was on the phone has been recreated. A phone that the league had no legal right to demand in the first place. And a phone that they would already have known what Brady had texted because they already had the phones from everyone else involved anyway.

- The destroyed phone then becomes a P.R. vehicle that the league then used to make Brady look bad. Oh, and Wells said he didn't want or need the phone anyway.

- And my biggest thing to consider in all of this is that the NFL did not give a rat's patootie about the inflation of the football in any game in the history of football until after that game. That alone should be evidence that no one really cared or thought it was a big deal.

I have said all along that the Patriots probably did what they are accused of at some point and probably have gotten away with way worse. But sticking to the infraction at hand, many people feel that it is a minor misdemeanor . . . worthy of a fine or maybe an in-game penalty. If people want to say they cheated, fine. If people want to say they broke the rules, even better. But a lot of people are making this out like they are repeat child molesters or multi murderers. Plenty of temas over the years have done things that are against the rules, yet people aren't screaming that they were uber cheaters.

So sure, call them cheaters, but I would call them cheaters like the IRS would call people that took a $25 tax deduction that really wasn't justified. Would the government then give them a $1 million fine and lock them away for 2 years for tax evasion over $25?

It's not about the "minor misdemeanor". It's about what the "minor misdemeanor" leads to. In a game of inches, any "minor misdemeanor has the potential for huge consequences.

 

[Anarchy99]

My biggest issue in all of this is that the league has completely different standards based on how the wind blows and how they feel on any given day. If they want to adapt a no tolerance policy for rules infractions, with heavy penalties, I'm fine with that. But make sure you start suspending HOF players from other teams and docking first round picks. When the footballs register at 10 PSI at halftime in January in Green Bay, Rodgers needs to be suspended the first four games the following season. Don't let Suh off with a fine when he stomps on a QB for the 8th time. He better sit for multiple games. If teams mess with the salary cap, they better lose draft picks. If teams tamper with players under contract on other clubs, throw the book at them. Of course, that will never happen . . . and that's part of the problem

On a side note, the Charlotte Observer's solution to Deflategate is to not suspend Brady . . . but dock the Patriots two additional draft picks (2nd rounders in 2016 and 2017). So their punishment would be a 1st, two 2nds, and a 4th. Why not just say the Patriots can't draft at all until 2018 at that point.

 

[Koya]

If I'm the judge I take Brady and Goodell behind closed doors. I recommend the NFL give Brady a second appeal hearing based upon the new information and suggest to Brady that he admits non cooperation. Hopefully the two sides get it and make this go away.

Isnt it true that when Bill B copped to one of the last transgressions (dont remember which), part of the agreement was that if BB was found cheating the NFL he would be banned or something to that effect?

Heard this a few weeks back on ESPN radio, and even suggested that is why Brady was the "fall guy" because of the stipulation.

NOW, my point is not to argue the truthiness of the above, but this is my point:

The NFL, simply put, has HAD it with the years of cheating, lies and arrogance of the Pats, and BB specifically (let's be honest, regardless the extent of the cheating, as much as most of us think, or just a little as some still hold onto, it's not Kraft, I think Brady will do anything to win, but would not be the type to instigate cheating of the scale we've seen... it's all BB at heart).

This was their chance to say, you know what Pats, #### you. This is hardly the most egregious act itself, but to have the GAUL to cheat again, in such a high stakes game, after being read the "this is the last straw" riot act, it was just enough.

Reminds me of how Cops and the legal system will throw the book at a career criminal for something "minor" like gun possession or something, because they are just fed up and looking at any way, within the system, to lock the guy up for as long as possible. Not because of the latest infraction in isolation, but the overall context and lack of remorse / change.

 

[Burl]

I don't really care if they're guilty of deflating footballs, but since you asked:

1) balls drop by close to 2 psi on a cold game day, and the largest difference explained by deliberate deflation is less than half a psi. This was hardly their first outdoor game. So why would they manually deflate balls by such a tiny amount when nature was going to do the rest? I find the argument that the reef used the Guage he thought he did more compelling than the argument that they cheated, but only a little.

2) the deflator nickname is not particularly concerning to me because it wasn't his actual nickname, and his job included the legal inflation and deflation of footballs. I also don't believe that anyone has a dorito in place of their dink.

3) kraft has already said he regrets not fighting the penalty but he's always been 1 of 32 and willing to take his licks to make the league successful. He also made his decision before people toe the Wells report to shreds. That wasn't an admission of guilt, it was acceptance of the league findings. Now that he's had time to review them, like everyone else, he is more skeptical and came out as vocally against the league as I've ever heard him

4) it was initially reported that the league asked the Patriots to suspend the equipment guys. Then the league denied it. I don't know the truth and neither do you so I don't consider that evidence one way or the other.

5) the "destroying the phone" meme isn't evidence of anything, either. The nflpa wanted this case to go to court from day one. Between their counsel and the NFL saying they didn't need his phone and then that they did, there are plenty of reasons for him to have reasonably replaced his phone. It's also possible that he didn't want questionable but innoccuous private texts to be misinterpreted the way dorito dink's were.

I agree that there's plenty of smoke here and that when there's smoke. There's probably fire. It's also possible he didn't do anything and that no balls were deflated. I'm not making categorical statements either way. They might literally have done nothing wrong. They might have done something wrong. I don't know. But what i do know is that for the NFL to have come down as hard as they did without firm evidence doesn't mean they have even more evidence of wrong doing in some back room somewhere. They may lose a court case that hurts them in future arbitrations and labor negotiations. This is all of their evidence, yet they've somehow created the impression that they're might be even more out there when the whole purpose of this was to protect the perception of the integrity of the game. That's a failure no matter how you look at it.

So "The Deflator" and destroyed phone mean nothing to you? That is the true test of a Patriots fan. Not sure why I decided to try to talk logic with a guy with the word Boston in his username. The team DID fire the ball guys. Kraft DID immediately accept the stiffest fine and draft loss in league history. Between The Deflator, the destroyed phone, firing the ball boys, and Kraft's willingness to accept penalty, only a Patriots fan would have any doubt about what happened.

Now, if you want to go the Ryan Braun route and simply hope to get off on technicalities, then that's understandable. But to pretend they didn't cheat (again) is the worst case of blind homerism I've ever seen.

So sure, call them cheaters, but I would call them cheaters like the IRS would call people that took a $25 tax deduction that really wasn't justified. Would the government then give them a $1 million fine and lock them away for 2 years for tax evasion over $25?

The league has top treat New England the way parents have to cheat misbehaving children. There's more of a punishment if you've already been punished for this before. If you lie about it, the punishment gets worse, also. So maybe the penalty is too severe in conjunction with the offense, but New England's behavior compounded the problem.

To be clear, I am not singling you out.

But Wells stated in his report the team and coaching staff were not involved and did not merit blame. The organization gave the league access to everything they had in terms of video, records, phones, etc. (save for Brady and Gostkowski who elected not to give them personal cell phones which was their legal right). The only thing the Pats didn't do was let the league interview the ball attendants for a fifth time.

I am not sure what "behavior" you are referring to and by whom. I am guessing the press conferences that were held after the false information was leaked about 11 of 12 balls were like 2 pounds under PSI levels. So the Patriots were attacked and assailed from misleading information. From that point forward, they were defending themselves against lies and mysterious leaks from the league.

What were they supposed to say, yeah, we did it, but we didn't do it anywhere near as badly as is being reported. That would have raised even more red flags.

Neither Brady nor Gostkowski were ever asked to hand over their cell phones. That's Pats-spin. They were asked to cooperate and supply certain texts and calls. Everyone asks like they wanted Brady to leave his phone with them for a few days with the league having free access to anything on it. And why do you suppose the Pats didn't allow the league to interview the equipment guys another time? But went ahead and fired them?

To the letter of the law, the league had no legal right to demand anything on a player's phone. So not providing information from a personal communication device is not grounds for any penalties. The entire phone thing was a way for the league to engineer a way to punish Brady after the fact. They already had what was on his phone and what he had texted from others involved. And that information was later to presented to them anyway. But instead of reporting on the information they had or received later, the only noteworthy thing to come out of it was Goodell trying to uphold punishment of Brady for not cooperating by saying Brady destroyed the phone. But nowhere has it ever come out that the league came up with nothing from the two baboons and nothing from 12 hours of interviews and testimony from Brady (and all the texts). That part got totally ignored in the Wells report, the appeal, the appeal report, and anything released to the media. By that point, the league was looking for ways to make a case because they didn't have a strong case to begin with. Put another way, the league shifted gears to try to show a cover up when they really hadn't shown that there was much of a crime to begin with.

And as explained earlier, the team placed the ball handlers on suspension per request of the league, who were going to suspend them if the Patriots didn't. That was the story at the time that was reported. That may have been debated since then.

You have every right to deny a field sobriety test as well. Doesn't mean you still won't get booked for drunk driving.

 

[Anarchy99]

The difference in the sobriety test and the Brady situation is a policeman will need to justify why he/she felt someone was driving while impaired. Was the person swerving? Crossed the middle line? Had an accident? Could barely stand up and walk in a straight line? Smelled like alcohol?

With Brady, only knowing that there was "an investigation" . . . not even knowing what had been discussed, what was fully being investigated, what the penalties would be until months later, only going by false media information and league leaks, or even knowing what he specifically was being accused of . . . was effectively told to prove he was innocent.

If your boss came to you and sat you down and said "prove you didn't do it" (under similar nondescript circumstances and not telling you what "it" was), wouldn't you be pretty concerned? Oh, and BTW give us a data dump from your phone to show you were innocent. The league moved the goalposts on Brady months later. If they said from jump street, "Tom, you are facing a multi-game suspension and we are going to cite you for conspiring to uphold the integrity of the game," guess what, Brady would have done things a lot differently.

And for those that say he should have known what was coming down the pike, how on earth would he have known that? It's not written in the CBA, it's not written in the league rules, and no player has even been suspended for anything even remotely similar (and no player has been suspended for failing to cooperate). Then AFTER getting suspended when he no longer had any records, he tried to get them for the league and they refused to make any effort to get them or review them.

So in the failing to take a sobriety test example, it would be similar if the court then ordered the perpetrator to 5 years in prison simply for not taking the sobriety test (when there was no hard and fast proof the driver was impaired and the person under suspicion had no other criminal record).

 

[espnespn]

I don't really care if they're guilty of deflating footballs, but since you asked:

1) balls drop by close to 2 psi on a cold game day, and the largest difference explained by deliberate deflation is less than half a psi. This was hardly their first outdoor game. So why would they manually deflate balls by such a tiny amount when nature was going to do the rest? I find the argument that the reef used the Guage he thought he did more compelling than the argument that they cheated, but only a little.

2) the deflator nickname is not particularly concerning to me because it wasn't his actual nickname, and his job included the legal inflation and deflation of footballs. I also don't believe that anyone has a dorito in place of their dink.

3) kraft has already said he regrets not fighting the penalty but he's always been 1 of 32 and willing to take his licks to make the league successful. He also made his decision before people toe the Wells report to shreds. That wasn't an admission of guilt, it was acceptance of the league findings. Now that he's had time to review them, like everyone else, he is more skeptical and came out as vocally against the league as I've ever heard him

4) it was initially reported that the league asked the Patriots to suspend the equipment guys. Then the league denied it. I don't know the truth and neither do you so I don't consider that evidence one way or the other.

5) the "destroying the phone" meme isn't evidence of anything, either. The nflpa wanted this case to go to court from day one. Between their counsel and the NFL saying they didn't need his phone and then that they did, there are plenty of reasons for him to have reasonably replaced his phone. It's also possible that he didn't want questionable but innoccuous private texts to be misinterpreted the way dorito dink's were.

I agree that there's plenty of smoke here and that when there's smoke. There's probably fire. It's also possible he didn't do anything and that no balls were deflated. I'm not making categorical statements either way. They might literally have done nothing wrong. They might have done something wrong. I don't know. But what i do know is that for the NFL to have come down as hard as they did without firm evidence doesn't mean they have even more evidence of wrong doing in some back room somewhere. They may lose a court case that hurts them in future arbitrations and labor negotiations. This is all of their evidence, yet they've somehow created the impression that they're might be even more out there when the whole purpose of this was to protect the perception of the integrity of the game. That's a failure no matter how you look at it.

So "The Deflator" and destroyed phone mean nothing to you? That is the true test of a Patriots fan. Not sure why I decided to try to talk logic with a guy with the word Boston in his username. The team DID fire the ball guys. Kraft DID immediately accept the stiffest fine and draft loss in league history. Between The Deflator, the destroyed phone, firing the ball boys, and Kraft's willingness to accept penalty, only a Patriots fan would have any doubt about what happened.Now, if you want to go the Ryan Braun route and simply hope to get off on technicalities, then that's understandable. But to pretend they didn't cheat (again) is the worst case of blind homerism I've ever seen.

Pretending a federal judge didn't publicly rip apart the NFL investigation for no evidence is the worst case of blind Salty Hatred I've ever seen.

A skeptical Berman sounded unconvinced: "What is the evidence of a scheme or conspiracy that covers the Jan. 18 game? I'm having trouble finding it."

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/roger-goodell-greeted-boos-deflategate-hearing-article-1.2323018

I saw that 50 times. He's not saying the balls weren't tampered with. He's having trouble seeing where there's proof Brady conspired with the ball boys. Well no ####. Brady destroyed his phone for that very reason.

There's no proof the balls were tampered with for the AFC game. The Wells Report was a biased investigation that never factored in time difference/warming between when the Patriots balls and the Colts balls were measured.

[SIZE=11pt]“You can read the Exponent report forwards, backwards, upside down. You see time referred to again and again and again and again. However, you have to look at what they actually did, the statistical analysis that they actually did. They left time out of the analysis that they said was the most important.”[/SIZE]

https://nbcprofootballtalk.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/ex-204-appeal-hearing-transcript-t-brady.pdf

In fact, the NFL's argument to the judge is: "the CBA doesn't require an independent investigation". Because they know the Wells Report wasn't independent.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/08/09/nfl-hasnt-admitted-that-ted-wells-wasnt-independent-but-that-doesnt-matter/

 

[Koya]

Why are people still fighting about deflategate - we all know that, comparatively so, it's a minor infraction. At least compared to the past transgressions the Pats have been caught for (and those you have to assume they did not have discovered).

Shouldn't we just roll this into a "Pats are cheaters, everyone (with an ounce of sense and or objectivity) recognizes that except hardened and delusional Pats fans. Come join the fun!

Let's be honest, even deflategate is not about deflategate, so why are we discussing in such depth the "excuse" (albeit probably legit one) for the NFL to finally lay down the hammer after being misled and lied to one more time.

 

[moleculo]

I don't really care if they're guilty of deflating footballs, but since you asked:

1) balls drop by close to 2 psi on a cold game day, and the largest difference explained by deliberate deflation is less than half a psi. This was hardly their first outdoor game. So why would they manually deflate balls by such a tiny amount when nature was going to do the rest? I find the argument that the reef used the Guage he thought he did more compelling than the argument that they cheated, but only a little.

2) the deflator nickname is not particularly concerning to me because it wasn't his actual nickname, and his job included the legal inflation and deflation of footballs. I also don't believe that anyone has a dorito in place of their dink.

3) kraft has already said he regrets not fighting the penalty but he's always been 1 of 32 and willing to take his licks to make the league successful. He also made his decision before people toe the Wells report to shreds. That wasn't an admission of guilt, it was acceptance of the league findings. Now that he's had time to review them, like everyone else, he is more skeptical and came out as vocally against the league as I've ever heard him

4) it was initially reported that the league asked the Patriots to suspend the equipment guys. Then the league denied it. I don't know the truth and neither do you so I don't consider that evidence one way or the other.

5) the "destroying the phone" meme isn't evidence of anything, either. The nflpa wanted this case to go to court from day one. Between their counsel and the NFL saying they didn't need his phone and then that they did, there are plenty of reasons for him to have reasonably replaced his phone. It's also possible that he didn't want questionable but innoccuous private texts to be misinterpreted the way dorito dink's were.

I agree that there's plenty of smoke here and that when there's smoke. There's probably fire. It's also possible he didn't do anything and that no balls were deflated. I'm not making categorical statements either way. They might literally have done nothing wrong. They might have done something wrong. I don't know. But what i do know is that for the NFL to have come down as hard as they did without firm evidence doesn't mean they have even more evidence of wrong doing in some back room somewhere. They may lose a court case that hurts them in future arbitrations and labor negotiations. This is all of their evidence, yet they've somehow created the impression that they're might be even more out there when the whole purpose of this was to protect the perception of the integrity of the game. That's a failure no matter how you look at it.

So "The Deflator" and destroyed phone mean nothing to you? That is the true test of a Patriots fan. Not sure why I decided to try to talk logic with a guy with the word Boston in his username. The team DID fire the ball guys. Kraft DID immediately accept the stiffest fine and draft loss in league history. Between The Deflator, the destroyed phone, firing the ball boys, and Kraft's willingness to accept penalty, only a Patriots fan would have any doubt about what happened.Now, if you want to go the Ryan Braun route and simply hope to get off on technicalities, then that's understandable. But to pretend they didn't cheat (again) is the worst case of blind homerism I've ever seen.

Pretending a federal judge didn't publicly rip apart the NFL investigation for no evidence is the worst case of blind Salty Hatred I've ever seen.

A skeptical Berman sounded unconvinced: "What is the evidence of a scheme or conspiracy that covers the Jan. 18 game? I'm having trouble finding it."

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/roger-goodell-greeted-boos-deflategate-hearing-article-1.2323018

I saw that 50 times. He's not saying the balls weren't tampered with. He's having trouble seeing where there's proof Brady conspired with the ball boys. Well no ####. Brady destroyed his phone for that very reason.

There's no proof the balls were tampered with for the AFC game. The Wells Report was a biased investigation that never factored in time difference/warming between when the Patriots balls and the Colts balls were measured.

[SIZE=11pt]“You can read the Exponent report forwards, backwards, upside down. You see time referred to again and again and again and again. However, you have to look at what they actually did, the statistical analysis that they actually did. They left time out of the analysis that they said was the most important.”[/SIZE]

https://nbcprofootballtalk.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/ex-204-appeal-hearing-transcript-t-brady.pdf

In fact, the NFL's argument to the judge is: "the CBA doesn't require an independent investigation". Because they know the Wells Report wasn't independent.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/08/09/nfl-hasnt-admitted-that-ted-wells-wasnt-independent-but-that-doesnt-matter/

They did factor time into their analysis. The Patriots economist that made this claim was wrong.

 

[Run It Up]

I don't really care if they're guilty of deflating footballs, but since you asked:

1) balls drop by close to 2 psi on a cold game day, and the largest difference explained by deliberate deflation is less than half a psi. This was hardly their first outdoor game. So why would they manually deflate balls by such a tiny amount when nature was going to do the rest? I find the argument that the reef used the Guage he thought he did more compelling than the argument that they cheated, but only a little.

2) the deflator nickname is not particularly concerning to me because it wasn't his actual nickname, and his job included the legal inflation and deflation of footballs. I also don't believe that anyone has a dorito in place of their dink.

3) kraft has already said he regrets not fighting the penalty but he's always been 1 of 32 and willing to take his licks to make the league successful. He also made his decision before people toe the Wells report to shreds. That wasn't an admission of guilt, it was acceptance of the league findings. Now that he's had time to review them, like everyone else, he is more skeptical and came out as vocally against the league as I've ever heard him

4) it was initially reported that the league asked the Patriots to suspend the equipment guys. Then the league denied it. I don't know the truth and neither do you so I don't consider that evidence one way or the other.

5) the "destroying the phone" meme isn't evidence of anything, either. The nflpa wanted this case to go to court from day one. Between their counsel and the NFL saying they didn't need his phone and then that they did, there are plenty of reasons for him to have reasonably replaced his phone. It's also possible that he didn't want questionable but innoccuous private texts to be misinterpreted the way dorito dink's were.

I agree that there's plenty of smoke here and that when there's smoke. There's probably fire. It's also possible he didn't do anything and that no balls were deflated. I'm not making categorical statements either way. They might literally have done nothing wrong. They might have done something wrong. I don't know. But what i do know is that for the NFL to have come down as hard as they did without firm evidence doesn't mean they have even more evidence of wrong doing in some back room somewhere. They may lose a court case that hurts them in future arbitrations and labor negotiations. This is all of their evidence, yet they've somehow created the impression that they're might be even more out there when the whole purpose of this was to protect the perception of the integrity of the game. That's a failure no matter how you look at it.

So "The Deflator" and destroyed phone mean nothing to you? That is the true test of a Patriots fan. Not sure why I decided to try to talk logic with a guy with the word Boston in his username. The team DID fire the ball guys. Kraft DID immediately accept the stiffest fine and draft loss in league history. Between The Deflator, the destroyed phone, firing the ball boys, and Kraft's willingness to accept penalty, only a Patriots fan would have any doubt about what happened.Now, if you want to go the Ryan Braun route and simply hope to get off on technicalities, then that's understandable. But to pretend they didn't cheat (again) is the worst case of blind homerism I've ever seen.

Pretending a federal judge didn't publicly rip apart the NFL investigation for no evidence is the worst case of blind Salty Hatred I've ever seen.

A skeptical Berman sounded unconvinced: "What is the evidence of a scheme or conspiracy that covers the Jan. 18 game? I'm having trouble finding it."

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/roger-goodell-greeted-boos-deflategate-hearing-article-1.2323018

I saw that 50 times. He's not saying the balls weren't tampered with. He's having trouble seeing where there's proof Brady conspired with the ball boys. Well no ####. Brady destroyed his phone for that very reason.

There's no proof the balls were tampered with for the AFC game. The Wells Report was a biased investigation that never factored in time difference/warming between when the Patriots balls and the Colts balls were measured.

[SIZE=11pt]“You can read the Exponent report forwards, backwards, upside down. You see time referred to again and again and again and again. However, you have to look at what they actually did, the statistical analysis that they actually did. They left time out of the analysis that they said was the most important.”[/SIZE]

https://nbcprofootballtalk.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/ex-204-appeal-hearing-transcript-t-brady.pdf

In fact, the NFL's argument to the judge is: "the CBA doesn't require an independent investigation". Because they know the Wells Report wasn't independent.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/08/09/nfl-hasnt-admitted-that-ted-wells-wasnt-independent-but-that-doesnt-matter/

They did factor time into their analysis. The Patriots economist that made this claim was wrong.

Literally the first and only person I've seen say that, got a link?

The Exponent employee even confirmed it in the appeal testimony so I highly doubt this.

 

[moleculo]

Literally the first and only person I've seen say that, got a link?

The Exponent employee even confirmed it in the appeal testimony so I highly doubt this.

its literally impossible to do a transient analysis and not consider time. That's the very definition of transient.

Time was not included in the statistical analysis, as the statistical analysis was only a screening experiment to determine if it was worth investigating further. If that statistical analysis had yielded no difference between the colts and pats balls, there would have been no need to continue with any further laboratory testing.

Once they determined that time was critical, they did not go back and re-run the numbers. That's what the economist was harping about.

 

[Stealthycat]

Shouldn't we just roll this into a "Colts are cheaters, everyone (with an ounce of sense and or objectivity) recognizes that except hardened and delusional Colts fans. Come join the fun!

fixed

 

[ChromeWeasel]

The palmero analogy is problematic because of circumstanciality and lack of prior notice.

Brady, like all professional athletes who get caught cheating, is denying it. The lying and denying go along with the cheating. It's human nature. And, expectedly, Brady's first instinct was to deny. Andy Pettite is about the only athlete I know of who cheated and then came clean. And he is the only one that still maintains a squeaky clean image because of it. People will accept screw ups. We know how competitive sports are. Had Brady come clean right away, he would have most-likely saved New England those two lost draft picks. And his suspension. And the fine would have been much less. Instead, he did what they all do. I suppose it's all a part of trying to save their image. Their legacy. And now he's in so deep that he has no choice but to keep fighting this. We're two days away from the week three preseason game. The dress rehearsal for the regular season. And the Patriots still don't know who they should be starting. The amount of selfishness displayed by Brady is unbelievable at this point. Talk about a distraction.

Hey if I am Brady I would never admit to cheating. Even if he loses his appeal and misses 4 games the Pats likely cruise to a division championship. At worst sitting out 4 games cost them a little in the playoff seeding. Better that than being labeled a cheater.

I don't blame Brady one bit for not admitting it.

Do you think that there's one person out there that it would change their opinion of him? All this denying and appealing isn't making anyone think he's innocent that didn't already think he was innocent. And the judge's decision next week isn't changing anyone's opinion either.

I wasn't sure if he was innocent or not. His initial interview looked really bad back in February or so. It's only after the appeals process allowed for the transcript of his interview to be released that made up my mind. People were saying that Brady needed to say categorically that he didn't do anything. He did that repeatedly under oath. That was just suppressed by the NFL. That plus the mounting evidence of the NFL releasing false information to the press changed my mind. It's understandable to see why Brady didn't assert himself initially. The NFL released a false report that the Patriots footballs were all under-pressure, while all the Colts balls were fine. If I saw that I'd be nervous too. Once you find out that's a lie, and you have time to confirm that no one actually doctored any balls, you can say with confidence that nothing ever happened.

The actual facts that came out during Brady's appeal have convinced me. If nothing else Brady gets the benefit of the doubt here. Even the judge has suggested that the NFL's investigation is biased, unreliable, and not trustworthy.

 

[JIslander]

The palmero analogy is problematic because of circumstanciality and lack of prior notice.

Brady, like all professional athletes who get caught cheating, is denying it. The lying and denying go along with the cheating. It's human nature. And, expectedly, Brady's first instinct was to deny. Andy Pettite is about the only athlete I know of who cheated and then came clean. And he is the only one that still maintains a squeaky clean image because of it. People will accept screw ups. We know how competitive sports are. Had Brady come clean right away, he would have most-likely saved New England those two lost draft picks. And his suspension. And the fine would have been much less. Instead, he did what they all do. I suppose it's all a part of trying to save their image. Their legacy. And now he's in so deep that he has no choice but to keep fighting this. We're two days away from the week three preseason game. The dress rehearsal for the regular season. And the Patriots still don't know who they should be starting. The amount of selfishness displayed by Brady is unbelievable at this point. Talk about a distraction.

Hey if I am Brady I would never admit to cheating. Even if he loses his appeal and misses 4 games the Pats likely cruise to a division championship. At worst sitting out 4 games cost them a little in the playoff seeding. Better that than being labeled a cheater.

I don't blame Brady one bit for not admitting it.

Do you think that there's one person out there that it would change their opinion of him? All this denying and appealing isn't making anyone think he's innocent that didn't already think he was innocent. And the judge's decision next week isn't changing anyone's opinion either.

I wasn't sure if he was innocent or not. His initial interview looked really bad back in February or so. It's only after the appeals process allowed for the transcript of his interview to be released that made up my mind. People were saying that Brady needed to say categorically that he didn't do anything. He did that repeatedly under oath. That was just suppressed by the NFL. That plus the mounting evidence of the NFL releasing false information to the press changed my mind. It's understandable to see why Brady didn't assert himself initially. The NFL released a false report that the Patriots footballs were all under-pressure, while all the Colts balls were fine. If I saw that I'd be nervous too. Once you find out that's a lie, and you have time to confirm that no one actually doctored any balls, you can say with confidence that nothing ever happened.

The actual facts that came out during Brady's appeal have convinced me. If nothing else Brady gets the benefit of the doubt here. Even the judge has suggested that the NFL's investigation is biased, unreliable, and not trustworthy.

You only needed time to confirm that ?!? Do tell...

 

[Run It Up]

Literally the first and only person I've seen say that, got a link?

The Exponent employee even confirmed it in the appeal testimony so I highly doubt this.

its literally impossible to do a transient analysis and not consider time. That's the very definition of transient.

Time was not included in the statistical analysis, as the statistical analysis was only a screening experiment to determine if it was worth investigating further. If that statistical analysis had yielded no difference between the colts and pats balls, there would have been no need to continue with any further laboratory testing.

Once they determined that time was critical, they did not go back and re-run the numbers. That's what the economist was harping about.

Whats with the attitude?

Second, no one was talking about the transient analysis. You claimed the statistician was wrong. That statement is wrong, and you know it is.

Allegedly Exponent did run a transient analysis (we would know for sure if they did, had they added the data to their tables, so their science could actually be replicated) in which they considered time, we wouldn't know this as their data and tables does not represent it. And on the other point of the statistical analysis, no, they didn't consider time until after they had done their transient analysis. If they had considered time in their statistical analysis (which they had, after doing a second statistical analysis,) they would have and did find the difference to be statistically irrelevant.

Knowing this, they chose not to alter their data sets or tables.

Now you can (and did earlier in this thread) make an argument that their threshold was too low, thats an entirely different argument - the point was, Exponent set their threshhold and met it when not considering a key variable, and then after considering that key variable they no longer met their threshold - then chose to withhold their data, as Kessler put it, because it wouldn't survive scrutiny.

 

[JIslander]

Literally the first and only person I've seen say that, got a link?

The Exponent employee even confirmed it in the appeal testimony so I highly doubt this.

its literally impossible to do a transient analysis and not consider time. That's the very definition of transient.

Time was not included in the statistical analysis, as the statistical analysis was only a screening experiment to determine if it was worth investigating further. If that statistical analysis had yielded no difference between the colts and pats balls, there would have been no need to continue with any further laboratory testing.

Once they determined that time was critical, they did not go back and re-run the numbers. That's what the economist was harping about.

Whats with the attitude?

 

[moleculo]

Literally the first and only person I've seen say that, got a link?

The Exponent employee even confirmed it in the appeal testimony so I highly doubt this.

its literally impossible to do a transient analysis and not consider time. That's the very definition of transient.

Time was not included in the statistical analysis, as the statistical analysis was only a screening experiment to determine if it was worth investigating further. If that statistical analysis had yielded no difference between the colts and pats balls, there would have been no need to continue with any further laboratory testing.

Once they determined that time was critical, they did not go back and re-run the numbers. That's what the economist was harping about.

Whats with the attitude?

Second, no one was talking about the transient analysis. You claimed the statistician was wrong. That statement is wrong, and you know it is.

Allegedly Exponent did run a transient analysis (we would know for sure if they did, had they added the data to their tables, so their science could actually be replicated) in which they considered time, we wouldn't know this as their data and tables does not represent it. And on the other point of the statistical analysis, no, they didn't consider time until after they had done their transient analysis. If they had considered time in their statistical analysis (which they had, after doing a second statistical analysis,) they would have and did find the difference to be statistically irrelevant.

Knowing this, they chose not to alter their data sets or tables.

Now you can (and did earlier in this thread) make an argument that their threshold was too low, thats an entirely different argument - the point was, Exponent set their threshhold and met it when not considering a key variable, and then after considering that key variable they no longer met their threshold.

there is no attitude intended. If there is, it's because I grow tired of the patsfan.com echo chamber repeating things that aren't true.

The statement was that exponent failed to account for time in their analysis. that's patently false. The majority of their report dealt with time.

The statistical model was simply a screening analysis to determine if it was worth delving further. No more, no less.

Had they included time in the statistical model, they would have (probably) gotten an inconclusive result. patsfans.com would interpret "inconclusive" as, aha! you can't prove anything!!!1! I would interpret "inconclusive" as "too many lumped assumptions rendering this type of analysis worthless", in which case you fall back on experimental data.

please keep this in mind - heat transfer is not the kind of thing where you plug numbers into an equation and get the answer. It's not like the Ideal Gas Law, which is relatively simple. It can be for certain situations where all variables are well known (design of a heat sink or heat exchanger, for example), but when you are talking about footballs of varying moisture level, handled and exposed to different conditions, in different orientations, etc., the math breaks down and you are forced to rely on experimental data - that's all there is.

so that's what they did. You can see in figure 28 (exponent report pg 55) that, on for the no-logo gauge assumption, there is literally no time where footballs as measured at halftime would have been within the band as predicted by their experimental model. If you go with the logo gauge assumption, you would see that the only way to assume deflation was a result of natural cause would be if all 11 pats balls were measured within 4 minutes...AND all patriot balls must have been wet.

Would it have been nice for them to include the raw data that generated these graphs? sure, I would have found that helpful. It's not really necessary to draw a conclusion from.

you mention replication - they don't need to publish the data they generated these curves for someone else to replicate. The act of replication from another lab would generate new curves. Exponent layed out pretty clearly their lab procedures and their conclusions - why has no one replicated the experiment?

 

[bostonfred]

Then why didn't they account for time?

 

[JuniorNB]

The palmero analogy is problematic because of circumstanciality and lack of prior notice.

Brady, like all professional athletes who get caught cheating, is denying it. The lying and denying go along with the cheating. It's human nature. And, expectedly, Brady's first instinct was to deny. Andy Pettite is about the only athlete I know of who cheated and then came clean. And he is the only one that still maintains a squeaky clean image because of it. People will accept screw ups. We know how competitive sports are. Had Brady come clean right away, he would have most-likely saved New England those two lost draft picks. And his suspension. And the fine would have been much less. Instead, he did what they all do. I suppose it's all a part of trying to save their image. Their legacy. And now he's in so deep that he has no choice but to keep fighting this. We're two days away from the week three preseason game. The dress rehearsal for the regular season. And the Patriots still don't know who they should be starting. The amount of selfishness displayed by Brady is unbelievable at this point. Talk about a distraction.

Hey if I am Brady I would never admit to cheating. Even if he loses his appeal and misses 4 games the Pats likely cruise to a division championship. At worst sitting out 4 games cost them a little in the playoff seeding. Better that than being labeled a cheater.

I don't blame Brady one bit for not admitting it.

Do you think that there's one person out there that it would change their opinion of him? All this denying and appealing isn't making anyone think he's innocent that didn't already think he was innocent. And the judge's decision next week isn't changing anyone's opinion either.

Even the judge has suggested that the NFL's investigation is biased, unreliable, and not trustworthy.

I agree with that and I still think Brady is guilty. I have no doubt that the NFL screwed up the investigation. But that doesn't change anything about what The Deflator in that bathroom or the only person who could have possibly wanted him to do it.

 

[The General]

Brady having trouble tonight with the regularly inflated balls.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Brady having trouble tonight with the regularly inflated balls.

Yeah, but he is the games leading rusher with 18yards. A new era!

 

[The General]

Brady having trouble tonight with the regularly inflated balls.

Yeah, but he is the games leading rusher with 18yards. A new era!

Over sized cleats IMO

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Brady having trouble tonight with the regularly inflated balls.

Yeah, but he is the games leading rusher with 18yards. A new era!

Over sized cheats IMO

Fixed.

 

[espnespn]

Literally the first and only person I've seen say that, got a link?

The Exponent employee even confirmed it in the appeal testimony so I highly doubt this.

its literally impossible to do a transient analysis and not consider time. That's the very definition of transient.

Time was not included in the statistical analysis, as the statistical analysis was only a screening experiment to determine if it was worth investigating further. If that statistical analysis had yielded no difference between the colts and pats balls, there would have been no need to continue with any further laboratory testing.

Once they determined that time was critical, they did not go back and re-run the numbers. That's what the economist was harping about.

Whats with the attitude?

Second, no one was talking about the transient analysis. You claimed the statistician was wrong. That statement is wrong, and you know it is.

Allegedly Exponent did run a transient analysis (we would know for sure if they did, had they added the data to their tables, so their science could actually be replicated) in which they considered time, we wouldn't know this as their data and tables does not represent it. And on the other point of the statistical analysis, no, they didn't consider time until after they had done their transient analysis. If they had considered time in their statistical analysis (which they had, after doing a second statistical analysis,) they would have and did find the difference to be statistically irrelevant.

Knowing this, they chose not to alter their data sets or tables.

Now you can (and did earlier in this thread) make an argument that their threshold was too low, thats an entirely different argument - the point was, Exponent set their threshhold and met it when not considering a key variable, and then after considering that key variable they no longer met their threshold.

there is no attitude intended. If there is, it's because I grow tired of the patsfan.com echo chamber repeating things that aren't true.

The statement was that exponent failed to account for time in their analysis. that's patently false. The majority of their report dealt with time.

The statistical model was simply a screening analysis to determine if it was worth delving further. No more, no less.

Had they included time in the statistical model, they would have (probably) gotten an inconclusive result. patsfans.com would interpret "inconclusive" as, aha! you can't prove anything!!!1! I would interpret "inconclusive" as "too many lumped assumptions rendering this type of analysis worthless", in which case you fall back on experimental data.

please keep this in mind - heat transfer is not the kind of thing where you plug numbers into an equation and get the answer. It's not like the Ideal Gas Law, which is relatively simple. It can be for certain situations where all variables are well known (design of a heat sink or heat exchanger, for example), but when you are talking about footballs of varying moisture level, handled and exposed to different conditions, in different orientations, etc., the math breaks down and you are forced to rely on experimental data - that's all there is.

so that's what they did. You can see in figure 28 (exponent report pg 55) that, on for the no-logo gauge assumption, there is literally no time where footballs as measured at halftime would have been within the band as predicted by their experimental model. If you go with the logo gauge assumption, you would see that the only way to assume deflation was a result of natural cause would be if all 11 pats balls were measured within 4 minutes...AND all patriot balls must have been wet.

Would it have been nice for them to include the raw data that generated these graphs? sure, I would have found that helpful. It's not really necessary to draw a conclusion from.

you mention replication - they don't need to publish the data they generated these curves for someone else to replicate. The act of replication from another lab would generate new curves. Exponent layed out pretty clearly their lab procedures and their conclusions - why has no one replicated the experiment?

No one has to replicate an experiment, to prove it is bogus, when it is clear Exponent did not include time in their calculations.

The NFL is the one accusing Brady of deflation, it is up to them to prove it. Why doesn't the NFL run another experiment with time factored in, to prove deflation? Answer: because they can't.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

The NFL is the one accusing Brady of deflation, it is up to them to prove it. Why doesn't the NFL run another experiment with time factored in, to prove deflation? Answer: because they can't.

Pretty sure an employer can just suspect it, and make a decision accordingly.

Like every single fine/suspension that was ever given based upon "intent" (think Suh).

They dont know/prove. But they can still make a decision regarding their company/alliance.

 

[moleculo]

Literally the first and only person I've seen say that, got a link?

The Exponent employee even confirmed it in the appeal testimony so I highly doubt this.

its literally impossible to do a transient analysis and not consider time. That's the very definition of transient.

Time was not included in the statistical analysis, as the statistical analysis was only a screening experiment to determine if it was worth investigating further. If that statistical analysis had yielded no difference between the colts and pats balls, there would have been no need to continue with any further laboratory testing.

Once they determined that time was critical, they did not go back and re-run the numbers. That's what the economist was harping about.

Whats with the attitude?

Second, no one was talking about the transient analysis. You claimed the statistician was wrong. That statement is wrong, and you know it is.

Allegedly Exponent did run a transient analysis (we would know for sure if they did, had they added the data to their tables, so their science could actually be replicated) in which they considered time, we wouldn't know this as their data and tables does not represent it. And on the other point of the statistical analysis, no, they didn't consider time until after they had done their transient analysis. If they had considered time in their statistical analysis (which they had, after doing a second statistical analysis,) they would have and did find the difference to be statistically irrelevant.

Knowing this, they chose not to alter their data sets or tables.

Now you can (and did earlier in this thread) make an argument that their threshold was too low, thats an entirely different argument - the point was, Exponent set their threshhold and met it when not considering a key variable, and then after considering that key variable they no longer met their threshold.

there is no attitude intended. If there is, it's because I grow tired of the patsfan.com echo chamber repeating things that aren't true.

The statement was that exponent failed to account for time in their analysis. that's patently false. The majority of their report dealt with time.

The statistical model was simply a screening analysis to determine if it was worth delving further. No more, no less.

Had they included time in the statistical model, they would have (probably) gotten an inconclusive result. patsfans.com would interpret "inconclusive" as, aha! you can't prove anything!!!1! I would interpret "inconclusive" as "too many lumped assumptions rendering this type of analysis worthless", in which case you fall back on experimental data.

please keep this in mind - heat transfer is not the kind of thing where you plug numbers into an equation and get the answer. It's not like the Ideal Gas Law, which is relatively simple. It can be for certain situations where all variables are well known (design of a heat sink or heat exchanger, for example), but when you are talking about footballs of varying moisture level, handled and exposed to different conditions, in different orientations, etc., the math breaks down and you are forced to rely on experimental data - that's all there is.

so that's what they did. You can see in figure 28 (exponent report pg 55) that, on for the no-logo gauge assumption, there is literally no time where footballs as measured at halftime would have been within the band as predicted by their experimental model. If you go with the logo gauge assumption, you would see that the only way to assume deflation was a result of natural cause would be if all 11 pats balls were measured within 4 minutes...AND all patriot balls must have been wet.

Would it have been nice for them to include the raw data that generated these graphs? sure, I would have found that helpful. It's not really necessary to draw a conclusion from.

you mention replication - they don't need to publish the data they generated these curves for someone else to replicate. The act of replication from another lab would generate new curves. Exponent layed out pretty clearly their lab procedures and their conclusions - why has no one replicated the experiment?

No one has to replicate an experiment, to prove it is bogus, when it is clear Exponent did not include time in their calculations.

The NFL is the one accusing Brady of deflation, it is up to them to prove it. Why doesn't the NFL run another experiment with time factored in, to prove deflation? Answer: because they can't.

 

[bostonfred]

NFL was paid by foreign governments to hurt American understanding of science, turned out to be unnecessary.

Poke holes

 

[espnespn]

The NFL is the one accusing Brady of deflation, it is up to them to prove it. Why doesn't the NFL run another experiment with time factored in, to prove deflation? Answer: because they can't.

Pretty sure an employer can just suspect it, and make a decision accordingly.

Like every single fine/suspension that was ever given based upon "intent" (think Suh).

They dont know/prove. But they can still make a decision regarding their company/alliance.

Well, that's why we have the lawsuit.

And since the federal judge is ripping the Wells report for being biased and lacking proof, that's should make everyone re-think whether there actually is real proof of deflation.

 

[espnespn]

Literally the first and only person I've seen say that, got a link?

The Exponent employee even confirmed it in the appeal testimony so I highly doubt this.

its literally impossible to do a transient analysis and not consider time. That's the very definition of transient.

Time was not included in the statistical analysis, as the statistical analysis was only a screening experiment to determine if it was worth investigating further. If that statistical analysis had yielded no difference between the colts and pats balls, there would have been no need to continue with any further laboratory testing.

Once they determined that time was critical, they did not go back and re-run the numbers. That's what the economist was harping about.

Whats with the attitude?

Second, no one was talking about the transient analysis. You claimed the statistician was wrong. That statement is wrong, and you know it is.

Allegedly Exponent did run a transient analysis (we would know for sure if they did, had they added the data to their tables, so their science could actually be replicated) in which they considered time, we wouldn't know this as their data and tables does not represent it. And on the other point of the statistical analysis, no, they didn't consider time until after they had done their transient analysis. If they had considered time in their statistical analysis (which they had, after doing a second statistical analysis,) they would have and did find the difference to be statistically irrelevant.

Knowing this, they chose not to alter their data sets or tables.

Now you can (and did earlier in this thread) make an argument that their threshold was too low, thats an entirely different argument - the point was, Exponent set their threshhold and met it when not considering a key variable, and then after considering that key variable they no longer met their threshold.

there is no attitude intended. If there is, it's because I grow tired of the patsfan.com echo chamber repeating things that aren't true.

The statement was that exponent failed to account for time in their analysis. that's patently false. The majority of their report dealt with time.

The statistical model was simply a screening analysis to determine if it was worth delving further. No more, no less.

Had they included time in the statistical model, they would have (probably) gotten an inconclusive result. patsfans.com would interpret "inconclusive" as, aha! you can't prove anything!!!1! I would interpret "inconclusive" as "too many lumped assumptions rendering this type of analysis worthless", in which case you fall back on experimental data.

please keep this in mind - heat transfer is not the kind of thing where you plug numbers into an equation and get the answer. It's not like the Ideal Gas Law, which is relatively simple. It can be for certain situations where all variables are well known (design of a heat sink or heat exchanger, for example), but when you are talking about footballs of varying moisture level, handled and exposed to different conditions, in different orientations, etc., the math breaks down and you are forced to rely on experimental data - that's all there is.

so that's what they did. You can see in figure 28 (exponent report pg 55) that, on for the no-logo gauge assumption, there is literally no time where footballs as measured at halftime would have been within the band as predicted by their experimental model. If you go with the logo gauge assumption, you would see that the only way to assume deflation was a result of natural cause would be if all 11 pats balls were measured within 4 minutes...AND all patriot balls must have been wet.

Would it have been nice for them to include the raw data that generated these graphs? sure, I would have found that helpful. It's not really necessary to draw a conclusion from.

you mention replication - they don't need to publish the data they generated these curves for someone else to replicate. The act of replication from another lab would generate new curves. Exponent layed out pretty clearly their lab procedures and their conclusions - why has no one replicated the experiment?

No one has to replicate an experiment, to prove it is bogus, when it is clear Exponent did not include time in their calculations.

The NFL is the one accusing Brady of deflation, it is up to them to prove it. Why doesn't the NFL run another experiment with time factored in, to prove deflation? Answer: because they can't.

Nothing will convince Salty Haters that there is no evidence. Even a judge saying there is no evidence is not enough.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Why did the league specifically and deliberately leak false information, and then knowingly and specifically not correct said information? How does the answer to these questions relate to the supposed impartiality of the arbitrator?

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

How do you assign determination of punishment to one of your direct reports and then claim impartiality?

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

How do you set specific penalties for tampering in a CBA and then assign substancially higher penalties for possible tampering?

 

[bostonfred]

They really don't claim to be impartial. They said wells was impartial, but changed their tune pretty quick when it got to court, and they weren't exactly forthcoming about their own legal team editing the report before it went out.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

How do you request something an employee is not legally obligated to provide, and then punish him for actions within his legal rights, after specifically NOT telling him he would be subject to severe penslties for not cooperating over and above his legal responsibility?

 

[Old Smiley]

The answer to these and so many other questions: Be Roger Goodell.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

If you want to have optimal equipment, is it better to have footballs all around the same pressure or to have a minion rush through ball deflation in under 90 seconds creating the good chance that you are going to be confronted with a wide uncontrolled range of ball presdures?

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

How do you punish someone in the absence of credible scientific facts?

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Why do you demand a phone when you already know the contents of the phone?

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Roger Goodell has become the Vince Mcmahon of the NFL. - Joe Thomas.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

When the Manning family flew to New Orleans after Katrina, Dad and Peyton handed out emergency supplies to those in need. Eli refused to get off the plane. Google it.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

The Ravens were supposed to win. The colts were supposed to win. The Seahawks were supposed to win. There is supposed to be parity in our league. The last thing we need is for a couple arrogant d-bags to consistently dominate. These people need to be shown that no one is bigger than the league. Bump em down a notch or two.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

This might help with some of that spam.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

We have imperfect rules. Its embarassing when one team consistently exploits the limitations for competitive advantage. When Belichick retires from coaching we should hire him to close the loopholes. Hire a cheater to prevent cheating if you prefer.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

This might help with some of that spam.

Lol. Good one.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

I think my comments are relevant though .

 

[DropKick]

Literally the first and only person I've seen say that, got a link?

The Exponent employee even confirmed it in the appeal testimony so I highly doubt this.

its literally impossible to do a transient analysis and not consider time. That's the very definition of transient.

Time was not included in the statistical analysis, as the statistical analysis was only a screening experiment to determine if it was worth investigating further. If that statistical analysis had yielded no difference between the colts and pats balls, there would have been no need to continue with any further laboratory testing.

Once they determined that time was critical, they did not go back and re-run the numbers. That's what the economist was harping about.

You guys are still going?

I was on board with the NFL until Goodell's appeal decision. This is where they jumped the rails. They made a big deal out of destroying the phone. I felt this was unnecessary as Brady had already declined to provide the messages. His failure to cooperate to their satisfaction had already been factored into the punishment. The disposition of the phone was irrelevant. Roger also made too big deal out of the equipment guys being given things... My nephew worked for a minor league ball club and got a wealth of balls, bats, jerseys, etc.. He made this jump from being "more probable than not" to a full blown conspiracy of rewards... He didn't have to do that to uphold the suspension and, at that time, it appeared to be too personal for my expectations of the role of the commissioner.

That decision, misrepresentation of Brady's testimony, the misinformation and lack of correct information in the days/months after the AFCCG, have convinced me this was "investigation" was too impartial to accept. In retrospect, it seems like more prosecution than investigation.

As far as adjusting numbers for time...

If you adjust the three Colt's balls by 1.0 PSI to account for a 0.5 to 0.6 difference in starting pressure plus the additional time to warm during half-time, the average PSI is 11.27 with a low of 11.15. An average increase of 0.4 - 0.5 due to temperature might even be conservative given the Wells Report documented a 1.1 PSI change in 14 minutes. The rate of change is also sensitive to the condition (wet/dry) of the ball.

I've always discounted the 4th ball because of the uncertainty around it. They assume a transcription error but it could have just as easily been bad penmanship. Can a 12.15 be mistaken for a 12.95? Easily. And a 12.15/12.50 pair of measurements is actually almost identical to one of the other balls.

The Patriots balls averaged 11.11. 6 of 11 were within 0.05 (or higher) of the Colts' 11.15 ball. Another three balls were within 0.3 PSI. The average of these 9 balls is 11.22, which is within 0.05 (gauge accuracy) of the Colt's average. The intercepted ball was also above this level.

So we have two rogue balls at 10.5 and 10.7. Any analysis hinges on these two measurements. Could they have been deflated accidentally during the measurement process itself? It's not out of the realm of possibility. Repeated measurements in a lab are one thing. An impromptu set of measurements during half-time are another

$5M dollars for a report; All of that science, all of this controversy and bad blood, the federal court ... I agree with the judge, I don't think there is enough evidence. The NFL let this get out of control.

Pats fans will defend their team. Haters will assume the worst. You guys can go back and forth and argue about this for the next 10 years if you like (and I suspect you both will).