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Patriots vs. Rams in London (1 Viewer)

Faust

MVP
Patriots & Rams schedule in London

By Mike Reiss | ESPNBoston.com

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- The Patriots are scheduled to depart for London later on Thursday in advance of Sunday's "road" game against the St. Louis Rams (1 p.m. ET). This is Bill Belichick's preference, as the team will get a full three days of work at home, with the thinking that it's the most productive football set-up.

The Rams have taken a different approach, deciding to spend the entire week in London.

Here is a look at the London-based media schedule for both teams this week (London time):

Tuesday

8:20 a.m. -- Rams arrive

11:30 a.m. -- Rams players and cheerleaders conduct coaching clinics with London schools

Wednesday

12:15 p.m. -- Rams practice at Arsenal FC training ground

2:15 p.m. -- Rams media interviews

4:10 p.m. -- Bill Belichick conference call

Thursday

12:15 p.m. -- Rams practice at Arsenal FC training ground

2:15 p.m. -- Rams media interviews

Friday

7:05 a.m. -- Patriots arrive

9 a.m. -- Media availability with Patriots (Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo, Sebastian Vollmer and Zoltan Mesko)

11:15 a.m. -- Rams practice

1 p.m. -- Media availability with Rams

Sunday

5 p.m. -- Patriots vs. Rams (note: this is 1 p.m. ET)
 
What thoughts does everyone have on the impact of travel fatigue could have for this game and any other considerations for the fantasy football angle?

The current forecast for Sunday is "cloudy with showers" a high of 11°C and a low of 6°C

 
Overseas travel not new for Patriots

October 22, 2012 7:40 pm By Tim Britton

When it comes to playing games overseas in London, the Patriots have been there and done that.

New England's Sunday contest with the Rams at Wembley Stadium will be the second time the Pats have played in the NFL's International Series. New England beat Tampa Bay 35-7 in London in 2009.

"Organizationally, it probably helps to have been through that. We have an awful lot of players on our team that are with us now that weren't on that trip," head coach Bill Belichick said. "Individually, I think there isn't a great deal of experience for that. Organizationally, some of the things we know we have to plan for [that] we dealt with the last time, we can learn from and maybe improve on. But each year is different, each trip is different, each team is different. I think the needs of this team are a little different than the needs of the '09 team when we went out there.

"There's nothing really we can do about that. We'll take them all as they come, like all the rest of the teams do in this league. We'll try to do the best we can with each opportunity, but we really can't worry about it because in the end, it's eight [home games] and eight [road games]. When they come, it's just the schedule. It's out of our control."

The Patriots are scheduled to fly out to London on Thursday.

As was the case in 2009, the Pats will have a bye week after the game in London to regroup before hosting the Bills on November 11.
 
Other than the fans in the stands having inferior teeth, I'm not sure there is any difference in the game over there versus here.

 
Rams leave for London matchup against Patriots

By R.B. FALLSTROM

AP Sports Writer

Ready or not, it's time for the St. Louis Rams to take their game overseas.

The team was flying to London on Monday in preparation for Sunday's game against the New England Patriots. The Rams (3-4) might have an edge in game preparation, given they'll be training at Arsenal's soccer facilities, which coach Jeff Fisher described as completely self-contained.

Rams owner Stan Kroenke also owns Arsenal, so it was a natural that he was interested in the London option. The Rams had planned on playing in London for three straight years but backed off earlier this year and decided on playing just one game amid fan concerns that Kroenke might move the franchise after the 2014 season.

Fisher said the Rams will practice in the early afternoon London time as they adjust to the six-hour time change, and will get plenty of free time. The team has been preparing for this for a few weeks.

"They're excited," Fisher said. "They know the challenges associated with going across the pond, as they say, and they're looking forward to it."

Speaking into a microphone that had feedback issues when he met reporters, Fisher joked that it was the only glitch during preparations for the trip.

"The organization has done a great job with all the logistics, everybody's prepared and ready to go," Fisher said. "If this is all we have, we're in good shape."

Fisher believes the team progressed even in the 30-20 loss to Green Bay on Sunday, the Rams' first defeat at home after a 3-0 start. He said quarterback Sam Bradford might have played his best game, and cited improvement on the offensive line with solid debuts for newcomers Joe Barksdale and Shelley Smith.

"Nobody played good enough because we didn't win, but Sam made the throws, he bought time, he did a really good job on the line of scrimmage getting in and out of things," Fisher said.

Bradford was 21 for 34 for 255 yards with an interception and a touchdown pass in the final minute to Austin Pettis. After the game, he appeared optimistic.

"Our mentality is that we can play with anyone on any Sunday," Bradford said. "And we're going to take that same mentality into the game next week."

The Rams have added more help for a line decimated by injuries by signing Chris Williams, a 2008 first-round pick out of Vanderbilt whose contract was terminated by the Bears last week. Williams started 20 games at left guard, 11 at right tackle and seven at left tackle with Chicago, but failed to live up to his perceived potential in Chicago.

"We just think he can help us," Fisher said. "Now, he's got a lot to learn and I don't know how soon or where we'll plug him in, but we think he has a future here with us."

Fisher said most but not all injured players would be accompanying the team, but did not specify.

"I think you could assume that if they don't make the trip, they're going to be out this week," he said.

Center Scott Wells (foot) can resume practicing as the Rams' designated-to-return injured reserve player, but Fisher said he's not ready yet. Tackle Rodger Saffold (knee) is likely to miss his fifth game.

The Rams had been holding opponents to 14.7 points at home before running into the Packers, who have won four straight in the series and seven of 10. They sacked Aaron Rodgers three times in the first quarter, but that was it.

The offense is 28th in the NFL. Danny Amendola leads the team with 32 receptions even though he's missed the last three games with a collarbone injury, and Steven Jackson scored his first touchdown of the year on a 6-yard run against Green Bay.

"We've still got a lot of work to do," Jackson said. "We're slowly coming together as an offense and a unit. We've got to help our defense out by putting points on the board."

The Packers surprised the Rams with a successful onside kick in the first quarter that set up a field goal. They took control in the third quarter, grabbing a 17-6 lead, while the Rams ran only seven plays and Bradford threw an interception that led to another field goal.

The Rams' defense faces another formidable challenge. The Patriots have had at least 350 total yards in 16 consecutive games, tying the record set by the Rams from 1999-2000 for the longest streak in NFL history, and they lead the NFL with an average of 436 yards.
 
Yardage totals need to be adjusted by .914 to account for the switch to meters. Will probably have to do that manually, not sure your site can accomodate.

 
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Greg Zuerlein a London hit for St. Louis Rams

By Henry Hodgson NFL.com

Published: Oct. 23, 2012 at 12:51 p.m

Around the League's London bureau chief Henry Hodgson is overseas for Sunday's St. Louis Rams-New England Patriots game and will be filing reports the rest of the week.

LONDON -- An exhausted St. Louis Rams team climbed off their flight into London Heathrow Airport on Tuesday morning and were immediately pitched into the business of promoting their home game against the New England Patriots, which takes place at Wembley Stadium on Sunday. The Rams, who left St. Louis on Monday evening on an overnight flight, were met with their first challenge of NFL International Series week -- 500 eager schoolchildren at an NFL Play 60 event in Regentâs Park in central London.

"I'm a little tired right now," confessed quarterback Sam Bradford, "but it's fun to be out here with these kids. They are definitely excited to learn something from us about American football."

While Rams stars like Bradford, Pro Bowl running back Steven Jackson and linebacker James Laurinaitis were on show, the most popular group with the schoolchildren were kicker Greg Zuerlein and punter Johnny Hekker, who demonstrated skills more familiar to British kids than the finer points of playing on the offensive line.

Once they were done educating an extremely eager group of 12-15 year olds in the finer details of a different type of football, some Rams players embarked on a journey of their own -- to check out what London had to offer.

"You can't go wrong with sightseeing," said cornerback Cortland Finnegan, who was visiting London for a second time. "You name it, from Buckingham Palace on down, there's so many thing you need to see."

Finnegan grabbed a London taxi with defensive lineman Chris Long, who was also embarking on his second visit to London, although his first trip was way back in 1990, when Long was just five years old.

"My dad (Howie Long) played here for the Raiders in an exhibition game, but that was a long time ago," Long said. "This week I want to do some sightseeing, though."

While Tuesday was a day for acclimatizing and seeing some of their newly adopted home city, the Rams will be hard at work come Wednesday, albeit in a very different surrounding.

"It'll be a little different," said Bradford, "We've all done it before, though. Being in college and playing in Bowl games, you have to travel to a site and prepare somewhere that's different to normal; staying in a hotel, going to a different facility to practice, so I really don't think it's going to be that big of a deal for us."

"There's only one way to do it, which is practicing and doing drills and getting into our routines," added Long. "As soon as we get out onto the field, I think things will return to normal.
 
I am in London this week and was looking at ticket prices for this game. Holy crap! Ticketmaster wants over $1000 for the cheapest Level 2 pair with the hospitality package. Level 1 is over $1400. F that.

 
I am in London this week and was looking at ticket prices for this game. Holy crap! Ticketmaster wants over $1000 for the cheapest Level 2 pair with the hospitality package. Level 1 is over $1400. F that.
No wonder they want to play a Super Bowl over there.
 
As a Brady owner, I'm not too concerned. I don't really see it being much worse than an away game on the west coast, at least as far as travel and time change.

 
How is your league handling Greg Zuerlein's points that week? We are tripling his points, due to potential jet lag for "The Leg". No one has complained about the ruling.

 
How is your league handling Greg Zuerlein's points that week? We are tripling his points, due to potential jet lag for "The Leg". No one has complained about the ruling.
Just remember to make the proper conversions on the length.

A 180 Shaftment FG is 30 yards

A 160 Span FG is 40 yards

A 100 Cubit FG is 50 yards

A 22 Fathom FG is 44 yards

English units

 
Friday7:05 a.m. -- Patriots arrive
Seems really late for the Pats to get there. Not much time to get over the jet lag.
I don't think it s smart at all...I just went there from the East Coast in April, and I was lost for a day or so. With that said, what time is kickoff? I want to say it is late (i.e. 7pm England time) and if that is the case, it really is no different than traveling to Denver for an EC team.
 
Friday7:05 a.m. -- Patriots arrive
Seems really late for the Pats to get there. Not much time to get over the jet lag.
I don't think it s smart at all...I just went there from the East Coast in April, and I was lost for a day or so. With that said, what time is kickoff? I want to say it is late (i.e. 7pm England time) and if that is the case, it really is no different than traveling to Denver for an EC team.
5pm England time
 
Friday7:05 a.m. -- Patriots arrive
Seems really late for the Pats to get there. Not much time to get over the jet lag.
I don't think it s smart at all...I just went there from the East Coast in April, and I was lost for a day or so. With that said, what time is kickoff? I want to say it is late (i.e. 7pm England time) and if that is the case, it really is no different than traveling to Denver for an EC team.
5pm England time
1pm Eastern time. I don't think London is only 4 hours away.
 
Friday7:05 a.m. -- Patriots arrive
Seems really late for the Pats to get there. Not much time to get over the jet lag.
I don't think it s smart at all...I just went there from the East Coast in April, and I was lost for a day or so. With that said, what time is kickoff? I want to say it is late (i.e. 7pm England time) and if that is the case, it really is no different than traveling to Denver for an EC team.
5pm England time
1pm Eastern time. I don't think London is only 4 hours away.
They choose this weekend every year because it falls when we do our Daylight Savings time change (a few weeks before you) Usually it's 5 hours difference and the first games start at 6pm over here
 
Friday7:05 a.m. -- Patriots arrive
Seems really late for the Pats to get there. Not much time to get over the jet lag.
I don't think it s smart at all...I just went there from the East Coast in April, and I was lost for a day or so. With that said, what time is kickoff? I want to say it is late (i.e. 7pm England time) and if that is the case, it really is no different than traveling to Denver for an EC team.
5pm England time
1pm Eastern time. I don't think London is only 4 hours away.
The time is listed as 5pm but that might not be correct.It's a 5 hour difference I guess that would be 6pm in England.
 
Friday7:05 a.m. -- Patriots arrive
Seems really late for the Pats to get there. Not much time to get over the jet lag.
I don't think it s smart at all...I just went there from the East Coast in April, and I was lost for a day or so. With that said, what time is kickoff? I want to say it is late (i.e. 7pm England time) and if that is the case, it really is no different than traveling to Denver for an EC team.
5pm England time
1pm Eastern time. I don't think London is only 4 hours away.
The time is listed as 5pm but that might not be correct.It's a 5 hour difference I guess that would be 6pm in England.
See above
 
Not fantasy football specific to this game, but an interesting read:

NFL team in London? League entering new phase of UK project

By Albert Breer

Reporter, NFL.com and NFL Network

Excerpt:

There's still plenty of skepticism out there over the NFL's ability to put a franchise in London anytime in the foreseeable future.

The first 10 months of 2012 have shown that the league is serious about trying.

The initial step was taken in January with the St. Louis Rams reaching a three-year agreement to play home games in London. Of course, the Rams had to back out, to focus on their ongoing stadium battle back home, but the NFL reaffirmed its desire by adjusting and getting a commitment from the Jacksonville Jaguars to enter into a similar deal, starting in 2013. And then, earlier this month, the league locked in a second game at Wembley Stadium for 2013, with the Minnesota Vikings and Pittsburgh Steelers set to meet next September.

This week marks the fifth anniversary of the NFL's first regular season game in London. And as the Rams and New England Patriots prepare for Sunday's game, it's clear that the league is moving into a new phase with its project.

"If we have a goal to accelerate the growth of our fan base in the UK, we have that ambition to create new opportunities in the future, it was going to be through that two-pronged approach," NFL Vice President of International Business Chris Parsons said. "One was to have a returning team, and we went through that process, and got Jacksonville. And by going down that path, with a returning home team, they'll see a team year after year. It's a good hook to increase the fan base.

"And then, after that, we've talked about the second game for a while. For the viewers, having one game is great. But for our fans over here, being able to impact the sporting calendar, adding a second game, and having the two games four weeks apart is a critical next step."

Parsons won't say it directly -- "It's not something I would be involved with" -- but these pieces of progress show where the league is going. The reasoning behind each move -- to test the market -- explains that.

Putting a team over there annually is a way to remove the novelty from the game, and see if fans will return to see the same club each year, and maybe even build loyalty toward that group. Adding an extra game, of course, would be an indicator to see if, someday, fans could be counted on to show up eight times every fall.

"I think theirs is an aspect of what we're doing where we look at it and say, 'Would the UK be able to sustain a team?' " Parsons says. "For now, it's, 'Let's build the fan base, so we can put ourselves in the top five in this country, so we'll be able to have that conversation.' For us, it's building that fan base, getting it to that size and scale, so if there's a future opportunity, we're ready for it. We're not looking at that as a short-term goal, though."

The "top five" ranking Parsons referenced has become a magic phrase for those involved in the league's international pursuit. It means the NFL getting into the top five spectator sports in the UK. When that happens, the push to put a team in London full-time will get stronger.

"If we continue to see the growth in the fan base we've seen the last three to four years, and continue to move up the rankings, and become more popular. ... As long as that continues, I believe we can be in the top five within the next five years," Parsons said.

Right now, American football ranks seventh or eighth on the list. Soccer (obviously) tops the charts over there. The next cluster includes cricket, rugby and tennis. After that, golf and motorsports. And then, American football and, believe it or not, darts. So based on that, the NFL would have to pass golf and motorsports in UK popularity for the league to seriously consider what some of football's biggest power brokers have high on their agenda, breaking into the London market full-time.

Taking that next step won't be easy, but Parsons was able to cite plenty of progress over the first six years of the Wembley incarnation of the International Series. Over that period, the league has gone from having two sponsor partners across the pond to 12, while regular-season ratings in the UK are up over 150 percent. Also on the rise: traffic to NFL.com, "NFL Game Pass" (Europe's "NFL Sunday Ticket" equivalent) subscriptions and "Madden NFL" sales.

With this growth, it's easy to see why the league has focused so intently on London and the UK, rather than branching out to places like Germany -- where football has been more popular than it is in England, but issues like television distribution exist.

"My view is that you build a sport up, and you get to a level of scale, you want to keep growing," Parsons said. "There's no point in being 15th in 20 different countries. So if we can demonstrate the steps we're taking get us to where we want to go, our goal would then become to replicate what we're doing here in other countries. We want to get it right here before we go elsewhere."

Not all of the signs are positive. The league had to tarp around 2,000 seats at Wembley last year, something Parsons chalks up to the lockout pushing planning back and delaying ticket sales. And the way the NFL sees it, 2013 was always the best time to move on the annual team and second game because the Olympics were in London this year, sucking up the entertainment dollar of the public. (Something that further illustrates American football's current place on the periphery.)

But overall, entering its sixth year, the London game definitely has been a success in Parsons' mind. Typically, he says, the crowd at Wembley is 4 to 5 percent American/transplanted American, and 5 to 10 percent comes from other parts of Europe, leaving the vast majority as native to the UK.

For Parsons, too, there's a personal level of satisfaction in that. He grew up in Manchester and remembers how it used to be.

"The only way to get live content was through the Armed Forces Network, and the signal was very weak," he said. "I remember trying to get the signal in my bedroom as a kid. So to me, this is about bringing the NFL, which has so many layers, to a great country and whole new generation of fans, and those grown-ups who had the same experience I did. I go to games at Wembley and see the young guys saying, 'This is great, thanks for bringing the game here.' That's such a rewarding element for me."

And if the league has its way, the best is yet to come.
 
Article Excerpt

The Wembley Stadium field hasn't gotten great reviews.

"Every field is different, you get used to it," Belichick said. "It's a grass field. It's not the fastest field but we've played on plenty comparable to that. It's a little different environment out there. They do the soccer cheers and the rugby cheers and all that.

"It's a little less football-oriented."
 
"If we have a goal to accelerate the growth of our fan base in the UK, we have that ambition to create new opportunities in the future, it was going to be through that two-pronged approach," NFL Vice President of International Business Chris Parsons said. "One was to have a returning team, and we went through that process, and got Jacksonville. And by going down that path, with a returning home team, they'll see a team year after year. It's a good hook to increase the fan base.
Looks to me like they're laying the groundwork for the London Jaguars.
 
"If we have a goal to accelerate the growth of our fan base in the UK, we have that ambition to create new opportunities in the future, it was going to be through that two-pronged approach," NFL Vice President of International Business Chris Parsons said. "One was to have a returning team, and we went through that process, and got Jacksonville. And by going down that path, with a returning home team, they'll see a team year after year. It's a good hook to increase the fan base.
Looks to me like they're laying the groundwork for the London Jaguars.
Wait, I have been hearing for years that Jaguars are moving to Los Angeles. Now they are moving to London? It is hard to keep up.
 
If the NFL is so intent on expanding to London, why in the world are they charging $1000 a seat? Limeys can be pretty rabid sports fanatics, given all the soccer hooligan incidents, people getting crushed to death at soccer stadiums etc. but those nut jobs aren't goiong to be able to afford such predatory pricing. Maybe that's the idea... make sure only the elite can afford a ticket to avoid such incidents... but I doubt that would happen at an American football event in any case.

On another note, can Brandon Lloyd play football in the UK? He sure can't do it in NE.

 
"If we have a goal to accelerate the growth of our fan base in the UK, we have that ambition to create new opportunities in the future, it was going to be through that two-pronged approach," NFL Vice President of International Business Chris Parsons said. "One was to have a returning team, and we went through that process, and got Jacksonville. And by going down that path, with a returning home team, they'll see a team year after year. It's a good hook to increase the fan base.
Looks to me like they're laying the groundwork for the London Jaguars.
Wait, I have been hearing for years that Jaguars are moving to Los Angeles. Now they are moving to London? It is hard to keep up.
They'll be the Los Angeles Jaguars of London-QG
 
WARNING: Rant Sports has some secondary links that could be a touch NSFW

New England Patriots vs St. Louis Rams Week 8 Preview

by Sean Rollins

This weekend the New England Patriots and St. Louis Rams travel across the Atlantic Ocean to face off in the NFL’s annual London game. The Rams arrived in London Tuesday morning with the Patriots staying back to use their own practice facilities. They’ll arrive in London Friday morning.

While the Rams are in the middle of a rebuilding process, they are a much improved team this year with new head coach Jeff Fisher. Last year the Rams finished 2-14 which put them at the bottom of the NFC. This season they’ve already surpassed last season’s win total as they sit at 3-4.

The Rams offense is the main reason they’re currently no better than 3-4. While they have a franchise quarterback in Sam Bradford, they have a weak offensive line in front of him and no solid receivers for him to throw to. Their main receiver this season was Danny Amendola but he is injured. The weak offensive line will be welcoming for Patriots defensive ends Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich. Jones continues to play solid in his rookie year and Ninkovich is coming off a great game against the New York Jets.

On the plus side for the Rams offense they do have a solid running game. In addition to All-Pro Steven Jackson, the Rams have added rookie Daryl Richardson who is averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Like the Patriots, the Rams will use a duel tight end formation. They will often use Matthew Mulligan as a blocking tight end and Lance Kendrick as a receiving tight end.

The Rams defense could cause trouble for the Patriots Sunday. The Rams defensive line has been very strong this season. Robert Quinn already has seven sacks and Chris Long has 4 sacks. These duos of first round picks combined for 18 sacks last season and have already combined for 11 sacks through the first seven games of this season. They are joined on the Rams defensive line by this year’s first round pick, defensive tackle Michael Brockers. After a slow start due to injury, Brockers is now making his presence felt recording a sack against the Green Bay Packers last week and is creating more opportunity for his fellow linemen.

The job of defending All-Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski will be James Laurinaitis. A second round pick in 2009, Laurinaitis has continued to improve and has become one of the fastest rising linebackers in the league. His presence around Gronkowski will force plays to be made by Aaron Hernandez who has just recently come back from an injury which kept him out for three weeks.

The other defensive strength for the Rams is at cornerback. Over the offseason the Rams signed Pro Bowler Cortland Finnegan and drafted Janoris Jenkins. Finnegan has been a tough cornerback throughout his career and Jenkins was widely considered one of the top defensive backs in this draft class. These are two tough corners that will challenge the Patriots physically and will make it tough for them to create big plays down field.

The Rams are rebuilding but will certainly test the Patriots Sunday. They’ve used the draft to their advantage by selecting very talented players who are now making a difference. The addition of Fisher, who has long been highly regarded in the league, as head coach has only improved this squad. While the Patriots should improve to 5-3 after this game, they will have to display a strong performance to come away with a victory.
 
If the NFL is so intent on expanding to London, why in the world are they charging $1000 a seat? Limeys can be pretty rabid sports fanatics, given all the soccer hooligan incidents, people getting crushed to death at soccer stadiums etc. but those nut jobs aren't goiong to be able to afford such predatory pricing. Maybe that's the idea... make sure only the elite can afford a ticket to avoid such incidents... but I doubt that would happen at an American football event in any case. On another note, can Brandon Lloyd play football in the UK? He sure can't do it in NE.
Tickets to the game itself range from 50 to 190 Euro. The poster above was referring to the "hospitality package" which presumably includes some other things besides the ticket.
 
If the NFL is so intent on expanding to London, why in the world are they charging $1000 a seat? Limeys can be pretty rabid sports fanatics, given all the soccer hooligan incidents, people getting crushed to death at soccer stadiums etc. but those nut jobs aren't goiong to be able to afford such predatory pricing. Maybe that's the idea... make sure only the elite can afford a ticket to avoid such incidents... but I doubt that would happen at an American football event in any case.

On another note, can Brandon Lloyd play football in the UK? He sure can't do it in NE.
Tickets to the game itself range from 50 to 190 Euro. The poster above was referring to the "hospitality package" which presumably includes some other things besides the ticket.
Brown Chicken Brown Cow No wonder the English love the NFL

 
Week 8 N.F.L. Game Probabilities: Patriots in London

By BRIAN BURKE

It’s an annual tradition for me to forget about the London game. It matters because home teams are granted an edge in the probabilities via home-field advantage. But the Rams will host the Patriots as the home team in name only Sunday in Wembley Stadium, so they’ll forfeit the benefit of a familiar field and a friendly crowd.

This game is also the aberration of the week, as the game probability model strongly disagrees with the consensus point spread that favors New England by a touchdown. I won’t claim that the efficiency model’s preference for St. Louis is correct, but I’ll illustrate why the numbers work out the way they do.

Put simply, New England has a very poor defense, and St. Louis’s has been much better than most people realize. St. Louis’s stats have come against a tougher slate of opponents, too.

(click on linked article to see the table)

Although the Patriots have a clear edge on offense, the Rams have the bigger edge on defense. New England has given up a full yard per pass attempt more than the league average, while St. Louis has given up a half yard per pass attempt less than average. When all these numbers are weighted according to how well they predict game outcomes, the Rams come out on top.

But the Patriots’ defense is a case in which the advanced stats conflict with each other. The simpler efficiency numbers rank the Patriots at near the very bottom of the league defenses. But other measures, like Expected Points Added allowed, Win Probability allowed and Success Rate indicate they are just about league average. This suggests the Patriots’ defense has been bending without breaking.

I think the bending/breaking cliché is usually a product of small sample luck in the red zone, but in New England’s case I think there’s more to it. It has been a trademark of Coach Bill Belichick’s teams to overperform their efficiency numbers. When his offense absolutely needs 3 yards to keep a drive alive, they’ll get those 3 yards and not much more. And on third-and-10, his defenses will happily allow a 9-yard gain while preventing an inch more.

So I doubt the Rams are the real favorite in this game, home field or not. But I suspect their defense will make this game more competitive than many of us expect.

Here are the game probabilities for Week 8. And to be clear, home-field advantage is not included for St. Louis.

(click on linked article to see the table)

Brian Burke, a former Navy pilot who has taken up the less dangerous hobby of N.F.L. analysis, operates Advanced NFL Stats, a blog about football, statistics and game theory..
 
FANTASY FOOTBALL: Rams' Bradford should shine in London on Sunday

BY DOUG AMADOR

THE PRESS DEMOCRAT

Published: Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 3:00 a.m.

Last Modified: Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:38 p.m.

Excerpt:

START

Sam Bradford, QB, St. Louis: He's been inconsistent all season, but look for Bradford to put up some decent numbers in London against a Patriots defense that allows 290.0 passing yards a game, fourth-worst in the league.
 
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New England Patriots prep for London game vs. Rams

By Henry Hodgson NFL.com

Published: Oct. 26, 2012 at 09:40 a.m.

LONDON -- The New England Patriots landed in England on Friday morning, and despite their bodies feeling like it still was the middle of the night, coach Bill Belichick met the media at their central London hotel.

To anyone who has previously witnessed a Belichick news conference, this was a vintage performance, especially since it was scheduled for 4 a.m. ET, after a transatlantic flight.

When asked about the importance of bringing the sport to an international audience, Belichick replied: "Wherever they schedule them, we play them. Our job is just to get ready to play."

And although the Patriots played in London in 2009, defeating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 35-7, Belichick clearly didn't leave impressed by the British fans on that occasion.

"It's not really a football crowd," he said. "It's random. If I'm talking to somebody and you hear the crowd go crazy, you think something has happened, but that's their cheer or their chant or whatever it is."

Belichick made it clear his main goal is to keep this week as normal as possible for his team. While the St. Louis Rams arrived in London and conducted all of their preparations based out of Arsenal Football Club's training facility, Belichick explained his decision to stay at their base by saying, "there's an advantage to flying in early, the drawback is moving all your stuff there."

The first act for the Patriots will be to quickly acclimate themselves to a different time zone, something Belichick has tried to achieve by changing the team's standard working week.

"We've had three days of practice already this week," Belichick explained. "Saturday will be a normal day for us, but today is a transition day. We're trying to get acclimated to our surroundings so that on Sunday we are ready to face the Rams."
 
Nuggetpalooza: My statistical look at the Patriots vs. Rams in London

By Gary Marbry

Last Sunday, the Patriots eked out a 26-23 victory in overtime against the Jets. So let’s start this week’s post with a very trivial trivia question: Since regular season overtime was instituted in 1974, on average, how many overtime games are there each season? Answer later.

This week, it’s off to London to face the Rams at Wembley Stadium, a venue famous for soccer and, from videos I’ve seen, ridiculously well attended rock concerts. There is little question that the Patriots are clearly better than the Rams. But they appeared to be clearly superior to the Cardinals and Seahawks as well, and we all know how those turned out. Is this the week that New England asserts their dominance? We’ll see. To get you ready, here are some numbers that struck me:

* – The Patriots have won 14 of their last 17 games (and each of their last five) played after going into overtime in their previous game (in the same season), dating back to 1994.



* – That the Patriots lead the NFL in long drives (10 or more plays) with 19 probably doesn’t surprise you. Here’s what surprised me, however: The Rams are tied for second in long drives with 15 (tied with the Saints, Lions, and Steelers). Last year, they ranked in the middle of the pack with 25 such drives, but they averaged just 2.7 points per long drive, the lowest/worst average in the league. This year, they are averaging 3.7 points per long drive, while the Patriots are averaging 4.0. The league leader is Cleveland, who’s only had FIVE such drives but are averaging 6.0 points, while Seattle (2.4) is currently last.

* – Those long drives by the Rams aren’t a product of a high third down conversion percentage, as the Rams rank just 22nd at 34.1% and are dead last in 3rd-and-short situations (9-for-23, 39%, on third down and three yards or less). This is no different from last season, when the Rams were last in third down conversions overall (28.1%) and in 3rd-and-short (42.3%).

* – By forcing the Jets into two turnovers last Sunday, the Patriots have now recorded a takeaway in their last 18 straight games, the longest current streak in the league (Cleveland has an 13-game streak and Atlanta is at 11 games in a row). Since 1997, the Patriots have had only two longer streaks: 21 games in 1994-1995 and 19 games in 2001-2002. They’re a LONG way from the longest such streaks in the league over the last 20 years, though:

54 – Buccaneers, 2000-2003

37 – Eagles, 1993-1995

33 – Bears, 2000-2002

29 – Eagles, 2003-2004

Note this: The Rams defense has not forced a turnover in either of their last two games.

* – The Patriots offense has not taken full advantage of all those turnovers, however, as they’ve scored following just 44% of opponent miscues (21st), averaging 2.3 points (21st). The Rams’ defense has been super-stingy after their offense has committed turnovers, allowing scores just 29% of the time (2nd) and an average of 0.9 points (best in the league). That’s a 180-degree turnaround for the Rams, as they ranked dead last in the league last season, allowing 4.1 points after turnovers.



* – The Rams have gained 40 or more yards on eight different plays this season, and only one has gone for a touchdown. Only the Bengals have more plays of 40+ yards this season (nine) and seven of those have gone for scores. The Patriots have just three such plays this season (one for a touchdown).

Note this: The Rams had only five such plays during ALL of last season.

* – The Patriots have already allowed nine touchdown passes of 20 or more yards this season, more than TWICE as many as they allowed during all of last year (4).

* – New England recovered another opponent’s fumble last week (it was a fairly important one, too) raising their league-leading number to 11 on the season. The Rams’ defense has recovered exactly one fumble through seven games (they’ve forced just two total fumbles).

Note this: The Rams recovered just six fumbles last year on defense (only three teams recovered fewer) despite forcing 24 (8th MOST in the league). Their 25% recovery rate was the lowest in the NFL.

* – When Devin McCourty went 104 yards for a touchdown on a kickoff return last Sunday, it snapped a streak of 103 consecutive kickoffs since the Patriots managed a return of more than 40 yards.

Note this: The Rams have not run a kickoff back for a touchdown since week five of the 2005 season, a stretch of 115 games, the longest current drought in the league:

115 – Rams

78 – Jaguars

71 – Giants



* – Through seven weeks, the Rams offense has scored 27 times, but only 10 of those scores have been touchdowns, which works out to an 0.52 TD/FG ratio, the lowest/worst mark in the NFL:

0.52 – Rams

0.71 – Raiders

0.73 – Jaguars

Here’s the thing: New England’s defense has allowed 19 touchdowns and 10 field goals, a TD/FG ratio of 1.90, the sixth highest/worst ratio by any defense. Here are the worst three:

4.00 – Chargers

3.38 – Bills

2.86 – Colts

Note this: The Rams were terrible at turning opportunities into touchdowns last season, too, as their 0.76 ratio ranked third-worst, behind only the 49ers and Chiefs.

* – Only four teams are sacking opposing quarterbacks more often than the Rams (7.8%) and only five offenses have had their quarterback sacked more often than the Rams (8.7%).

* – In the eight-and-a-half seasons since Rams’ running back Steven Jackson entered the league, he’s put up 15+ carries and averaged 4.0 yards per carry or better in 51 different games, easily the most in the league in that span:

51 – Steven Jackson

44 – Adrian Peterson

42 – Frank Gore

40 – LaDainian Tomlinson

* – NFL Note: If you were asked which NFL team has the most touchdown passes of 20 or more yards this season, would you have guessed the Bills (9)? They had only 4 such touchdown passes during all of 2011. Shoot, they had four such tosses against the Patriots on September 30 alone. And if asked which team was the only one without a touchdown pass of 20+ yards, would you have guessed Minnesota?

* – NFL Note II: The Bills, who are on bye this week, lost to the Titans, 35-34, last Sunday. It was the 13th consecutive year that Buffalo has lost heading into their bye. New England is off next weekend and have won their last three prior to their bye.

* – Trivia answer: From 1974 through 2011, there were 477 regular season overtime games, an average of 12.6 per season. So far in 2012, we’ve already had nine overtime games. The record in a single season is 25 overtime games, set in 2002. The Patriots are now 18-20 all-time in overtime as they lost their first 10 straight from 1977 to 1987.

Enjoy your football weekend!
 
I think if Amendola can go, the Rams have a shot. The Rams have good corners so that might limit Brandon Lloyd some but I don't think it will impact Welker as much.

 
Rams WR Amendola listed as questionable

By Field Yates | ESPNBoston.com

St. Louis Rams wide receiver Danny Amendola, who made a surprise return to the practice field this week after a recent collarbone injury, has been officially listed as questionable for Week 8 against the Patriots, according to the team's injury report.

That designation puts Amendola's chances of playing at 50-50, and if he were to take the field, it would be well in advance of when initial reports expected him to be back.

The Rams also could be without their top two left tackles, as Rodger Saffold (knee) remains out, and his replacement, Wayne Hunter (back) is questionable. Hunter took over for Saffold after a Week 2 knee injury, but was inactive last week against the Green Bay Packers as he deal with the back issue.

Joe Barksdale, claimed off of waivers by St. Louis in September, made his inaugural start with the team at left tackle last week, and could be in line for another start this weekend. The team also signed former first-round pick Chris Williams this week, after he was recently waived by the Chicago Bears. Williams has experience as both a tackle and a guard.

Defensive end Eugene Sims (knee) has also been ruled out for the game, while linebacker Mario Haggan (thigh), defensive tackle Matt Conrath (knee), and tight end Mike McNeill (knee) are questionable. Wide receiver Brandon Gibson, who has been dealing with an illness this week, is probable.

The Patriots will release their injury report later today.
 
What thoughts does everyone have on the impact of travel fatigue could have for this game and any other considerations for the fantasy football angle?The current forecast for Sunday is "cloudy with showers" a high of 11°C and a low of 6°C
A high of only 11 degrees?!!? :shock:
 
I am in London this week and was looking at ticket prices for this game. Holy crap! Ticketmaster wants over $1000 for the cheapest Level 2 pair with the hospitality package. Level 1 is over $1400. F that.
Seems awfully high, maybe that was in Canadian dollars?
 
'Das Boot said:
I am in London this week and was looking at ticket prices for this game. Holy crap! Ticketmaster wants over $1000 for the cheapest Level 2 pair with the hospitality package. Level 1 is over $1400. F that.
Seems awfully high, maybe that was in Canadian dollars?
Nice. At the current exchange rates:1 Canadian dollar = 1.0012 US dollars
 
Advantages and Disadvantages:

Experience in traveling overseas:

EDGE: Patriots

This advantage might not be a major one as not everyone was with the team the last time they made the trip but you have to believe that Bill Belichick learned something from the last time around, even if it is only being a little more familiar with the Stadium and the field conditions.

Travel and Jet Lag:

EDGE:

Rams. I like what they did in arriving a few days early to make the effort to get adjusted to the time zone difference and with their ownership influence they had access to some excellent facilities this week to get ready for the game. It will be interesting to see if the Patriots later arrival causes any issues for them with fatigue, although it sounds like they adjusted their practice times in the days leading up to their departure.

Weather and Field Conditions:

Hard to say who has the advantage or disadvantage here as the Patriots are more familiar with what to expect and even though it looks like they won't get rain, the complaint about the field at Wembley is that it is wet and not necessarily in great shape, so it should be a slower playing surface.

Other factors:

The loss of "home field advantage" for the Rams. Generally speaking - Vegas gives home teams somewhere around a 3 point edge and while the Rams are technically considered as the home team this weekend, they won't enjoy the typically advantages that a home team would normally get.

No home advantage for Rams in London

Vegas Increases Over/Under Totals, Home Field Advantage Based on Replacement Refs

Football Freakonomics: Home-field advantage

04:05 – How big of an edge is home-field advantage? Stephen J. Dubner delves into the mystery and takes a look at some of the key factors, including: Do interruptions in sleeping patterns affect player performance? Do officials play a role in home-field advantage? Watch to find out.
 
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