Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos

Player Page Link: Peyton Manning Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Jason Wood]

I used to understand when Peyton Manning's Spotlight thread wasn't very active. After all, you could pencil him in for top 5 QB numbers at worst, and ultimately it came down to a philosophical question of whether you were willing to draft a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round. If you were, Manning was a guy to consider. If you weren't, Manning was a guy you acknowledged as productive but didn't concern yourself with.

Fast forward to today though and things are much different. Manning is coming off a missed season and arguably the most significant free agent tour in history. He ended up choosing the Broncos, which had ripple effects as it also meant the end of "Tebow Time." One has to presume that the Broncos wouldn't have committed to Manning if their doctors didn't feel strongly that Manning could be healthy, and if that's the case, it all comes down to comfort.

Normally I would question an aging veteran moving teams and wonder if there would be an adjustment period. But Manning isn't normal. Let's remember that Manning was highly productive as a rookie starter, and then evolved into the game's best for a decade. If he's healthy -- and I'm going to assume he is -- why shouldn't we expect a complete return to form? His offensive line projects to be as good as many of the lines patched together in Indy. His receiving corps, while lacking a Marvin Harrison or Reggie Wayne, is certainly equipped with guys that are at or better than the level of players such as Brandon Stokley (in his prime) and Pierre Garcon; so there's no reason to think he won't have weapons to throw to who will make plays.

My only concern, and it's one that most will discount, is the change of venue from a weather perspective. Manning has played the preponderance of his career indoors in or temperate weather, and now he'll contend with not only the cold outdoor confines of Denver but also the high altitude. Is that a reason to pass on him? No, not when we've seen the likes of Jake Plummer and Brian Griese be fantasy relevant, and someone like John Elway be a star. But, I do think you can comfortably expect Manning to throw a few more interceptions than we're used to, to go along with the other stats that comfortably put him into the QB1 category.

 

[mphtrilogy]

I have a feeling he is going to be there sitting for me in one of the later rounds and I will still need a QB and I will take the plunge hoping for 32 tds and 3900 yards. But deep down, I want the guy right before me to grab him...

 

[Ministry of Pain]

He is throwing the ball well, my main concern is when he gets hit. On the surface you have to envision 4,000/25+ TDs...he's a nice pick in the latter part of the top12 QBs. Let 9 or 10 go off the board and then scoop up Manning and perhaps grab your QB2 a little faster than some of the others in your league.

 

[sspunisher]

Manning's weapons in Denver are far more explosive than his Indy weapons (in the latter Indy years). On the other hand, timing and being in synch is huge for Manning and the Denver offense isn't on Indy's level in that regard.

Everything considered, I'd say 4,000 yards passing and 30 TDs is his floor and he'll definitely get there if he plays 16 games. That's an average "good year" for a QB in today's NFL and Manning has the smarts to get there, regardless of where his arm is right now. Though I can see him throwing anywhere from 10-19 interceptions. I can't honestly gauge that without knowing if he'll be short arming throws or if he'll be comfortable taking a hit in the pocket as he throws the ball. If he keeps the INTs on the low end, his numbers would get a bump towards the 4500/35 range.

 

[Mr Rodgers neighborhood]

371 completions, 555 attempts, 4000 yards, 25 TD's, 16 INT's.

I understand that he was the most reliable QB in fantasy circles for well over a decade, but he missed an entire year from a serious injury. I think he'll be over drafted in hopes that he'll reclaim his former glory.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

If you take Peyton Manning this year, you are a riverboat gambler and it may be a very rich reward. He could go at the end of the QB1 run of quarterbacks and paired with a low risk QB2 like Josh Freeman. I can definitely see the value if he slips that far in drafts. I expect the Peyton hype machine to be full throttle in the pre-season and into the regular season. The networks will be pushing the “Peyton returns” angle down our throats any chance they get.

The offensive line is adequate, nothing spectacular but good enough to allow Peyton to make his quick read and fire. The arm seems fine and all reports are he’s looking a lot like the Peyton of old. He has some nice weapons in D. Thomas, E. Decker & B. Stokely and some new additions at TE in J. Tamme and J. Dreessen. The running game will be a complementary piece to the aerial attack and that is just as well as the running backs are marginal quality anyway.

It appears the 2012 Broncos are putting all their eggs in the Peyton Manning basket. It is the Achilles heel of this team and other teams will be gunning to put Peyton in the dirt for sure. The storyline that everyone is waiting on centers around the question: Can Peyton take the hard hits and will he bounce back up after a crushing sack that is inevitable. No player will be treated like he’s walking on eggshells quite like preseason and early season Peyton. If he can take the punishment, he’s going to have a decent year. But that assumes he can stay healthy.

I think at 36 and almost two years removed from competitive action, he’s a very risky player both in fantasy and for the Denver Broncos organization. Barring injury, (which I think is optimistic ~ and no, not just because I’m a Raiders fan) I could see these types of numbers from Peyton:

335/540/4100/26/22 (note the Int’s are a bit high because of the new receivers and weather)

 

[fightingillini]

Peyton Manning is an intriguing player for 2012. Carries a lot of risk, but he can carry that team. D Thomas and Decker are solid options, but Manning can make any WR look good. I can clealy see a viable strategy of passing on the Rodgers/Brady/Brees/Newton tier and grabbing Peyton a few rounds later while getting solid options at RB/WR/TE. However, I recommend taking a decent backup like Carson Palmer as insurance.

3900 yds passing, 29 TD

25 yds rushing, 1 TD

 

[Matt Bitonti]

the Broncos offensive line I have graded as 11th best in the league. It should be noted that Ryan Clady allowed a career high in sacks last season and the 11th best grade assumes Clady will play like the stud he was in his 1st two seasons. If he plays like he did last year, the line drops 10 (or more) slots in the rankings and becomes comparable to Detroit or Atlanta. They don't really have much in terms of depth, maybe Ryan Harris could step in?

heres a good article, more about Clady

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/22/statistics-dont-tell-story-for-ryan-clady/

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

Peyton Manning will run his offense, he has guys he's comfortable with, and he will get rid of the ball quickly and accurately running his scheme. I see him throwing short red-zone TD passes this year to help pad his TD numbers. He'll throw his share of picks as well, Peyton's always good for double digit INTs and one a game wouldn't be out of the question. But he's definitely in the top 7 or 8 fantasy QB's, if healthy, based on opportunity and pedigree.

365/580 4400 yds 31TD 17INTs

 

[DawnBTVS]

My concern and wariness lies more in how Manning's body will physically cope with taking shots week in and week out. It only takes a handful of shots to cut his season (and career) short.

I think of guys like Aikman, who started 11 games before retiring in 2000, or Steve Young, who started just 3 games before retiring in 1999.

16 Game Schedule: 4,250 yards with 31 TD to 15 INT.

I just don't think he can last all 16 games and my gut feeling says that he goes 8-10 games before an injury ends his season and possibly his career.

 

[Tau837]

I think it is very possible Manning won't play 16 games, but my philosophy is not to project injuries, so for purposes of this projection I will assume he does play all 16 games.

Manning is in a new environment - new stadium, new offense, new coaches, new teammates - and he is 36 and missed all of last season. IMO this is a non-trivial factor that will apply to all of my projections (passing attempts, passing yards, passing TDs) for Manning.

In Indianapolis, Manning averaged 34.7 passing attempts per game, which is an average of 555 passing attempts per season. Denver had just 429 passing attempts last year, but that was largely due to Tebow, and doesn't have any bearing on Manning's situation. Orton averaged 35.5 attempts in the first 4 games last year, but IMO that sample size is too small to be predictive.

However, consider Fox's history. Not including last season, he was the head coach of the Panthers from 2002-2010. His teams in Carolina averaged just below 30 passing attempts per game; they averaged 480 passing attempts per season. Meanwhile, Fox's teams have typically had a high number of rushing attempts. From 2002-2010, Fox's teams were #9 in the NFL in rushing attempts, and just 18 rushing attempts behind the #5 team. Those Carolina teams averaged 29 rushing attempts per game; they averaged 463 rushing attempts per season. Of course, he didn't have a QB of Manning's caliber on those teams, so it's not a perfect comparison.

Put it all together, and I think Manning will attempt fewer passes than he did in Indianapolis. I'll project 32 passing attempts per game, which projects to 512 over 16 games.

Now on to projecting yards, TDs, and interceptions. Looking at Manning's 2010 season is noteworthy for two reasons: (1) it was his most recent season, and (2) it was the only season in his career prior to this one in which he was coming off offseason neck surgery. So I will look at 2010 and at his last 5 seasons.

In 2010, Manning averaged 6.9 ypa. In the 5 year span of 2006-2010, Manning averaged 7.5 ypa. I will choose a middle ground and project 7.2 ypa. With 512 passing attempts, that projects to 3686 passing yards.

In 2010, Manning's TD percentage was 4.9%. In the 5 year span of 2006-2010, Manning's combined TD percentage was 5.4%. I will go with 5.0%. With 512 passing attempts, that projects to 26 TD passes.

In 2010, Manning's interception percentage was 2.5%. In the 5 year span of 2006-2010, Manning's combined interception percentage was 2.4%. I will go with 2.5%. With 512 passing attempts, that projects to 13 interceptions.

In summary, here is my projection for Manning: 512 passing attempts, 3686 passing yards, 26 TD passes, 13 interceptions. Obviously, there is some risk here, since this projection assumes he plays all 16 games.

 

[Tau837]

I see that my projection is the low end of the spectrum in this thread so far. The main reason seems to be the number of projected passing attempts, for those posters who included them. And, of the posters who included projected passing attempts, all but one are projecting a significantly better ypa than I am.

 

[PhantomJB]

In Indianapolis, Manning averaged 34.7 passing attempts per game, which is an average of 555 passing attempts per season. Denver had just 429 passing attempts last year, but that was largely due to Tebow, and doesn't have any bearing on Manning's situation. Orton averaged 35.5 attempts in the first 4 games last year, but IMO that sample size is too small to be predictive.However, consider Fox's history. Put it all together, and I think Manning will attempt fewer passes than he did in Indianapolis. I'll project 32 passing attempts per game, which projects to 512 over 16 games.In 2010, Manning averaged 6.9 ypa. In the 5 year span of 2006-2010, Manning averaged 7.5 ypa. I will choose a middle ground and project 7.2 ypa. With 512 passing attempts, that projects to 3686 passing yards.In 2010, Manning's TD percentage was 4.9%. In the 5 year span of 2006-2010, Manning's combined TD percentage was 5.4%. I will go with 5.0%. With 512 passing attempts, that projects to 26 TD passes.In 2010, Manning's interception percentage was 2.5%. In the 5 year span of 2006-2010, Manning's combined interception percentage was 2.4%. I will go with 2.5%. With 512 passing attempts, that projects to 13 interceptions.In summary, here is my projection for Manning: 512 passing attempts, 3686 passing yards, 26 TD passes, 13 interceptions. Obviously, there is some risk here, since this projection assumes he plays all 16 games.

JWB, I like the factors you considered and general methodology but IMO the end result is a little conservative. Here's why:1) Regarding, the reference to Fox's history and Orton's first four games in 2011, I think they are hugely relevant not necessarily for specific predictive value but because they demonstrate Fox won't put shackles on his quarterback (even one as bad as Orton). In addition, the massive shift to a ground game once Tebow took over proves to me that Fox is willing to tailor the offense to personnel strengths and not a rigid philosophy.We all know who is Denver's offensive strength now and so personally I would use pass attempts closer to Manning's historical average of 35/game (still under Orton's 35.5). Also, the league average in 2011 was 34 so I can't imagine Peyton ever throwing less than the league average. In addition, Denver has games next year against NE, NO, Carolina, SD, OAK (Orton threw 46x against them) and ATL, which could all produce some big passing stats.2) I think using Manning's low 6.9 ypa in the 2010 season due to first year coming off neck surgery is a little misleading because it ignores the fact he threw a career high 680 times that year for 4,700 yards. So to me the low ypa that year is less neck issues and more a dink and dunk offense that year with guys like Collie and Tamme. I'm choosing 7.5 ypa which is still below his career avg but justifiable IMO given adjusting to a new offense/new receivers.3) Manning's carer completion rate is 64.9% and the last six years is 66.5% (relevant IMO since it shows his continued maturity as a QB). I'm choosing 65%.4) I arrived at 28TD's and 14 INT's using different methodology but end up with very similar ratios.Final projection:364 / 560 / 4,200 yds / 28 TD's / 14 INT's

 

[Tau837]

In Indianapolis, Manning averaged 34.7 passing attempts per game, which is an average of 555 passing attempts per season. Denver had just 429 passing attempts last year, but that was largely due to Tebow, and doesn't have any bearing on Manning's situation. Orton averaged 35.5 attempts in the first 4 games last year, but IMO that sample size is too small to be predictive.However, consider Fox's history. Put it all together, and I think Manning will attempt fewer passes than he did in Indianapolis. I'll project 32 passing attempts per game, which projects to 512 over 16 games.In 2010, Manning averaged 6.9 ypa. In the 5 year span of 2006-2010, Manning averaged 7.5 ypa. I will choose a middle ground and project 7.2 ypa. With 512 passing attempts, that projects to 3686 passing yards.In 2010, Manning's TD percentage was 4.9%. In the 5 year span of 2006-2010, Manning's combined TD percentage was 5.4%. I will go with 5.0%. With 512 passing attempts, that projects to 26 TD passes.In 2010, Manning's interception percentage was 2.5%. In the 5 year span of 2006-2010, Manning's combined interception percentage was 2.4%. I will go with 2.5%. With 512 passing attempts, that projects to 13 interceptions.In summary, here is my projection for Manning: 512 passing attempts, 3686 passing yards, 26 TD passes, 13 interceptions. Obviously, there is some risk here, since this projection assumes he plays all 16 games.

JWB, I like the factors you considered and general methodology but IMO the end result is a little conservative. Here's why:1) Regarding, the reference to Fox's history and Orton's first four games in 2011, I think they are hugely relevant not necessarily for specific predictive value but because they demonstrate Fox won't put shackles on his quarterback (even one as bad as Orton). In addition, the massive shift to a ground game once Tebow took over proves to me that Fox is willing to tailor the offense to personnel strengths and not a rigid philosophy.We all know who is Denver's offensive strength now and so personally I would use pass attempts closer to Manning's historical average of 35/game (still under Orton's 35.5). Also, the league average in 2011 was 34 so I can't imagine Peyton ever throwing less than the league average. In addition, Denver has games next year against NE, NO, Carolina, SD, OAK (Orton threw 46x against them) and ATL, which could all produce some big passing stats.2) I think using Manning's low 6.9 ypa in the 2010 season due to first year coming off neck surgery is a little misleading because it ignores the fact he threw a career high 680 times that year for 4,700 yards. So to me the low ypa that year is less neck issues and more a dink and dunk offense that year with guys like Collie and Tamme. I'm choosing 7.5 ypa which is still below his career avg but justifiable IMO given adjusting to a new offense/new receivers.3) Manning's carer completion rate is 64.9% and the last six years is 66.5% (relevant IMO since it shows his continued maturity as a QB). I'm choosing 65%.4) I arrived at 28TD's and 14 INT's using different methodology but end up with very similar ratios.Final projection:364 / 560 / 4,200 yds / 28 TD's / 14 INT's

You don't seem to be making any adjustment for the fact that Manning is 36 and coming off a missed season due to a medical problem that could affect him this year. For example, even if Manning starts off fine, I think it's possible fatigue will be a factor as the season progresses, which will ultimately hold his attempts down.You mention new offense and new receivers as a rationale to estimate as low as 7.5 ypa... but that's not really estimating low at all, that is his average ypa since 2006. So, again, you appear to be making no adjustment for his age, missed season, and medical condition.And you didn't mention playing outdoors rather than in a dome, and you didn't mention the likelihood that his risk of missing games is higher than it has been in the past.That's fine if that's how you see it, but I think these factors will matter, and I stand by my projection. The bottom line for me is I will not be drafting him, and I'll be happy to see others draft him in front of me.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

To be honest...I probably would have preferred Manning's PS to be introduced later in the off-season. A lot of unknowns and conjecture here that time could at least help shed additional light on. But Manning and the Broncos offense as a whole has the potential to be the biggest swing factor in FF 2012. What had always been appealing about making Manning an early round choice though prior to 2011 was his consistency. For the most part, anyone who drafted Peyton Manning in the 21st century got their money's worth. But what's striking about looking at his career now is that his numbers look a little anemic now compared to some of the numbers now being put up by the Brees', Stafford's, Rodgers' and even Brady's of the NFL...they're not bad by any means, but they hardly seem exceptional when looked through the lens of 2012 expectations. In his last 3 seasons, his YPA was 7.2. That's Matt Ryan territory.

Is a healthy Peyton Manning in 2012 capable of being a top tier QB? I mean let's say instead of missing the 2011 season, Peyton Manning had another 575 attempt season where he threw for 4300/30? Would that get him 2nd-3rd round consideration?

There are wild-cards galore with Manning and a slew of 'ifs'.

- If he's 100% healthy...

- If he can click with his new team and new offensive structure...

- If he can deal with playing home games in less than ideal weather conditions come November/December...

- If he can turn Thomas/Decker/Tamme into a reasonable fascimile of Harrison/Wayne/Clark...

...and the thing that I worry about is that with all of these if's and wild-cards, you have to ask yourself the questions "What's the upside? What's the downside?".

There is no doubt Denver is a much better team with Peyton Manning. But he can be incredibly good for the Broncos without necessarily being incredibly good in fantasy. Right now Manning is going QB7 (middle of the 5th round; 5.06). The following 4 QB's being drafted over the next 2 rounds are Eli, Romo, Rivers, Ryan. Ryan is going 7.09. Ryan's 'if's' seem much more managable and in fact, his 'if's', seem to be of the more positive variety (if he can click better with Julio Jones). So what am I getting in terms of value with Manning in the 5th round? Where is my upside?

If I had to bet, Manning will be a servicable starting QB in FF this year. But QB7 and QB11 are different continents in terms of draft strategy and IMO, given the uncertainty of his situation, there appear to be better bets on the board that won't cost you as much.

Prediction: 360 Completions, 565 Attempts; 4210 Passing Yards, 28 TD's, 15 INT's

 

[Tau837]

you have to ask yourself the questions "What's the upside? What's the downside?".

IMO the downside dwarfs the upside. He is on my do not draft list.

Right now Manning is going QB7 (middle of the 5th round; 5.06). The following 4 QB's being drafted over the next 2 rounds are Eli, Romo, Rivers, Ryan.

That is crazy. I hope to see it in my redraft leagues, since it will mean better value falls to me.

 

[GreatLakesMike]

I've mentioned this in another thread....

His ADP is 5.06 over at FF Calculator and in the few mocks I've participated in, I've been able to grab him in the 5th every time. I'll take my chances with Manning at that price. The injury is 100% healed and his surrounding cast is much better. I think Manning gets the rust out in preseason and hits the ground running, game 1.

 

[shredhead]

you have to ask yourself the questions "What's the upside? What's the downside?".

IMO the downside dwarfs the upside. He is on my do not draft list.

Right now Manning is going QB7 (middle of the 5th round; 5.06). The following 4 QB's being drafted over the next 2 rounds are Eli, Romo, Rivers, Ryan.

That is crazy. I hope to see it in my redraft leagues, since it will mean better value falls to me.

Just how many QB's can you get in the 5th round that have 1st or 2nd round upside? Manning is at no higher risk than any other player in the league to have his season shortened by injury (I know many of you are too stubborn to realize the truth in that statement) It wasn't too long ago when his name was being mentioned in conversations about being the only one with a snowball's chance to match Brett Favre's iron man consecutive games played streak. Peyton has been more durable than most in the league, and that shouldn't be any different in the future. Those making predictions assuming he's going to miss time are selling yourselves short in my opinion.

 

[shredhead]

I've mentioned this in another thread....His ADP is 5.06 over at FF Calculator and in the few mocks I've participated in, I've been able to grab him in the 5th every time. I'll take my chances with Manning at that price. The injury is 100% healed and his surrounding cast is much better. I think Manning gets the rust out in preseason and hits the ground running, game 1.

 

[Tau837]

you have to ask yourself the questions "What's the upside? What's the downside?".

IMO the downside dwarfs the upside. He is on my do not draft list.

Right now Manning is going QB7 (middle of the 5th round; 5.06). The following 4 QB's being drafted over the next 2 rounds are Eli, Romo, Rivers, Ryan.

That is crazy. I hope to see it in my redraft leagues, since it will mean better value falls to me.

Just how many QB's can you get in the 5th round that have 1st or 2nd round upside? Manning is at no higher risk than any other player in the league to have his season shortened by injury (I know many of you are too stubborn to realize the truth in that statement) It wasn't too long ago when his name was being mentioned in conversations about being the only one with a snowball's chance to match Brett Favre's iron man consecutive games played streak. Peyton has been more durable than most in the league, and that shouldn't be any different in the future. Those making predictions assuming he's going to miss time are selling yourselves short in my opinion.

Well, you quoted my post for some reason, even though I projected Manning to play 16 games.As for your question about 1st or 2nd round upside, I think Manning has a zero percent chance of having that level of upside. More germane to the post I quoted above, I think it's very unlikely Manning will outscore Romo, Rivers, or Ryan.

 

[shredhead]

you have to ask yourself the questions "What's the upside? What's the downside?".

IMO the downside dwarfs the upside. He is on my do not draft list.

Right now Manning is going QB7 (middle of the 5th round; 5.06). The following 4 QB's being drafted over the next 2 rounds are Eli, Romo, Rivers, Ryan.

That is crazy. I hope to see it in my redraft leagues, since it will mean better value falls to me.

Just how many QB's can you get in the 5th round that have 1st or 2nd round upside? Manning is at no higher risk than any other player in the league to have his season shortened by injury (I know many of you are too stubborn to realize the truth in that statement) It wasn't too long ago when his name was being mentioned in conversations about being the only one with a snowball's chance to match Brett Favre's iron man consecutive games played streak. Peyton has been more durable than most in the league, and that shouldn't be any different in the future. Those making predictions assuming he's going to miss time are selling yourselves short in my opinion.

Well, you quoted my post for some reason, even though I projected Manning to play 16 games.As for your question about 1st or 2nd round upside, I think Manning has a zero percent chance of having that level of upside. More germane to the post I quoted above, I think it's very unlikely Manning will outscore Romo, Rivers, or Ryan.

I quoted your post because of the 1st sentence that I wrote. I kinda rambled after that, sorry. I did see that you projected him at 16 games. Manning has been 1st or 2nd round upside every season since he entered the league, and now he's going in the 5th? I call that moderate risk, high reward, aka value. You don't see it that way, and that's OK, it's just my opinion.

 

[grateful zed]

DATE OPPONENT

Sun, Sep 9 vs Pittsburgh

Mon, Sep 17 @ Atlanta

Sun, Sep 23 vs Houston

Sun, Sep 30 vs Oakland

Sun, Oct 7 @ New England

Mon, Oct 15 @ San Diego

BYE WEEK

Sun, Oct 28 vs New Orleans

Sun, Nov 4 @ Cincinnati

Sun, Nov 11 @ Carolina

Sun, Nov 18 vs San Diego

Sun, Nov 25 @ Kansas City

Sun, Dec 2 vs Tampa Bay

Thu, Dec 6 @ Oakland

Sun, Dec 16 @ Baltimore

Sun, Dec 23 vs Cleveland

Sun, Dec 30 vs kc

ff playoff weekends 15,16 look grim

 

[Chase Stuart]

In Indianapolis, Manning averaged 34.7 passing attempts per game, which is an average of 555 passing attempts per season. ...Put it all together, and I think Manning will attempt fewer passes than he did in Indianapolis. I'll project 32 passing attempts per game, which projects to 512 over 16 games.

Here's the problem with that analysis. His last 3 years in Indy, he averaged 602 pass attempts. As the league becomes a more passing league, so does Manning.Look at 2009 and 2010. The Colts started 14-0 and threw 534 passes in those 14 games. That's 38 pass attempts per game during an undefeated stretch!In 2010, the Colts were good but not great. Manning averaged 42.4 pass attempts per game.From '06 to '10, ignoring games where Manning rested, he averaged 35.4 pass attempts per game in wins and 43.1 in losses. From '08 to '10, it was 37.0 in wins and 46.3 in losses.So looking at his career attempts per game biases Manning because (1) in the current NFL, teams pass more than ever, Manning included, and (2) Denver is likely to be trailing more often than, on average, his Colts teams were.Assuming no Manning injury -- which is a huge assumption -- I think you have to put him at 600 attempts at a minimum.

 

[PhantomJB]

In Indianapolis, Manning averaged 34.7 passing attempts per game, which is an average of 555 passing attempts per season. ...Put it all together, and I think Manning will attempt fewer passes than he did in Indianapolis. I'll project 32 passing attempts per game, which projects to 512 over 16 games.

Here's the problem with that analysis. His last 3 years in Indy, he averaged 602 pass attempts. As the league becomes a more passing league, so does Manning.Look at 2009 and 2010. The Colts started 14-0 and threw 534 passes in those 14 games. That's 38 pass attempts per game during an undefeated stretch!In 2010, the Colts were good but not great. Manning averaged 42.4 pass attempts per game.From '06 to '10, ignoring games where Manning rested, he averaged 35.4 pass attempts per game in wins and 43.1 in losses. From '08 to '10, it was 37.0 in wins and 46.3 in losses.So looking at his career attempts per game biases Manning because (1) in the current NFL, teams pass more than ever, Manning included, and (2) Denver is likely to be trailing more often than, on average, his Colts teams were.Assuming no Manning injury -- which is a huge assumption -- I think you have to put him at 600 attempts at a minimum.

Just to be clear, your reply responds to my posting but the quotes you reference are from Just Win Baby's projections/posting.My projections basically acknowledge what you're saying but then try to balance the "downward" pressure due to new receivers, coaching, offensive scheme and rust from missing a year with the "upward" pressure of an increasing pass-happy league. 364 / 560 / 4,200 yds / 28 TD's / 14 INT's

 

[Tau837]

In Indianapolis, Manning averaged 34.7 passing attempts per game, which is an average of 555 passing attempts per season. ...Put it all together, and I think Manning will attempt fewer passes than he did in Indianapolis. I'll project 32 passing attempts per game, which projects to 512 over 16 games.

Here's the problem with that analysis. His last 3 years in Indy, he averaged 602 pass attempts. As the league becomes a more passing league, so does Manning.Look at 2009 and 2010. The Colts started 14-0 and threw 534 passes in those 14 games. That's 38 pass attempts per game during an undefeated stretch!In 2010, the Colts were good but not great. Manning averaged 42.4 pass attempts per game.From '06 to '10, ignoring games where Manning rested, he averaged 35.4 pass attempts per game in wins and 43.1 in losses. From '08 to '10, it was 37.0 in wins and 46.3 in losses.So looking at his career attempts per game biases Manning because (1) in the current NFL, teams pass more than ever, Manning included, and (2) Denver is likely to be trailing more often than, on average, his Colts teams were.Assuming no Manning injury -- which is a huge assumption -- I think you have to put him at 600 attempts at a minimum.

Your quote is messed up, as it should refer to a post of mine.Good info here. However:- Manning is 36 and coming off a missed season due to multiple surgeries.- Manning no longer has Tom Moore as his OC and now has John Fox, who in the past has tended toward conservative offenses, as his head coach.- Manning is no longer playing with Harrison, Wayne, or Clark.- Manning is no longer playing his home games in a dome.None of these things were true in any of the seasons you cited. You also didn't acknowledge the outlier aspect of the 675 attempts he had in 2010 that skews the averages you posted. Sure, if Manning ends up with 600 attempts, he'll probably be a solid value at his draft position. But that is extremely unlikely IMO.

 

[matttyl]

Just something to think about....

Peyton's rank each year (domination occurred when he was top 3 in all 3 categories) -

2010 - #2 in yards, #2 in passing TDs, #1 in completions (aka domination)

2009 - #2 in yards, #2 in passing TDs, #2 in completions (aka domination)

2008 - #6 in yards, #5 in passing TDs, #4 in completions

2007 - #7 in yards, #4 in passing TDs, #7 in completions

2006 - #2 in yards, #1 in passing TDs, #3 in completions (aka domination)

2005 - #7 in yards, #2 in passing TDs, #6 in completions

2004 - #3 in yards, #1 in passing TDs, #4 in completions

2003 - #1 in yards, #2 in passing TDs, #1 in completions (aka domination)

2002 - #3 in yards, #2 in passing TDs, #2 in completions (aka domination)

2001 - #2 in yards, #5 in passing TDs, #3 in completions

2000 - #1 in yards, #1 in passing TDs, #1 in completions (aka domination)

1999 - #3 in yards, #3 in passing TDs, #3 in completions (aka domination)

1998 (rookie season) - #3 in yards, #5 in passing TDs, #2 in completions

So in 7 of his 13 prior years, he was top 3 in yards, passing TDs and completions.

Saying that he'll only be #8 in each category would put him around (assuming similar passing #s in 2012 as to 2011) - 346 completions for 4,177 yards and 27 TDs

Being #8 in each category would be the worst he's been in each category for his career, and all occurring in the same year.

Saying that he'll be #5 in each category would put him around (assuming similar passing #s in 2012 as to 2011) - 359 completions for 4,643 yards and 31 TDs

 

[Team Legacy]

you have to ask yourself the questions "What's the upside? What's the downside?".

IMO the downside dwarfs the upside. He is on my do not draft list.

Right now Manning is going QB7 (middle of the 5th round; 5.06). The following 4 QB's being drafted over the next 2 rounds are Eli, Romo, Rivers, Ryan.

That is crazy. I hope to see it in my redraft leagues, since it will mean better value falls to me.

Just how many QB's can you get in the 5th round that have 1st or 2nd round upside?

http://leagues.myffpc.com/football/draft-board.php?LID=105886&UID=90kati0hmis9957o602472jkfwib9z3&CONF=0&X=1338491166591 Round 8 or 9 more like it. I was scooping Stafford up around that point last year.

 

[Tau837]

In Indianapolis, Manning averaged 34.7 passing attempts per game, which is an average of 555 passing attempts per season. ...Put it all together, and I think Manning will attempt fewer passes than he did in Indianapolis. I'll project 32 passing attempts per game, which projects to 512 over 16 games.

Here's the problem with that analysis. His last 3 years in Indy, he averaged 602 pass attempts. As the league becomes a more passing league, so does Manning.Look at 2009 and 2010. The Colts started 14-0 and threw 534 passes in those 14 games. That's 38 pass attempts per game during an undefeated stretch!In 2010, the Colts were good but not great. Manning averaged 42.4 pass attempts per game.From '06 to '10, ignoring games where Manning rested, he averaged 35.4 pass attempts per game in wins and 43.1 in losses. From '08 to '10, it was 37.0 in wins and 46.3 in losses.So looking at his career attempts per game biases Manning because (1) in the current NFL, teams pass more than ever, Manning included, and (2) Denver is likely to be trailing more often than, on average, his Colts teams were.Assuming no Manning injury -- which is a huge assumption -- I think you have to put him at 600 attempts at a minimum.

Your quote is messed up, as it should refer to a post of mine.Good info here. However:- Manning is 36 and coming off a missed season due to multiple surgeries.- Manning no longer has Tom Moore as his OC and now has John Fox, who in the past has tended toward conservative offenses, as his head coach.- Manning is no longer playing with Harrison, Wayne, or Clark.- Manning is no longer playing his home games in a dome.None of these things were true in any of the seasons you cited. You also didn't acknowledge the outlier aspect of the 675 attempts he had in 2010 that skews the averages you posted. Sure, if Manning ends up with 600 attempts, he'll probably be a solid value at his draft position. But that is extremely unlikely IMO.

From today's FBG update:

We don't think the Broncos will be a pass happy team, but Manning could average around 32 passing attempts per game.

 

[Chase Stuart]

From today's FBG update:

We don't think the Broncos will be a pass happy team, but Manning could average around 32 passing attempts per game.

Despite the claims of FBG staff groupthink, I'll just have to strongly disagree with that one.I am skeptical about Manning's health. But on a per game basis, I've got no doubt that he'll be among the league leaders in attempts. If you've got Manning at 32 attempts per game, you either think the Broncos D is going to be lights out or the running game is going to be awesome.

 

[FF Ninja]

I like some of JWB's rationale behind his projections, but the argument for the low attempts just doesn't hold up. I was just getting on some other guy in the Lloyd thread for using stats where they aren't applicable. In this case, I don't think the att/gm under Fox in Carolina is applicable. Fox never had Peyton Manning at QB. Fox only had a couple good years out of Delhomme during his tenure and the rest was crap. And Delhomme at his best was never close to elite. However, now he not only has Peyton Manning but his boss is heavily invested in Peyton. The Denver season is tied to Peyton. If they fail and they don't use Peyton much then Fox will catch all sorts of heat. If they use Manning for all he's worth and they fail then no one is going to second guess him saying, what was he thinking letting Manning throw the ball 35-40 times a game?! But even with all that conjecture aside, you have to use the tools you are given. It only makes sense that a coach would use Manning more than Delhomme, especially considering McGahee at this stage of his career is no Stephen Davis/DeAngelo Williams. For comparison sake, in Delhomme's best year he threw 310/533 @ 7.3ypa for 29/15.

I won't be the least bit surprised if Manning's INTs are up, his ypa is down, and his TD/att is an all time low, but I will be thoroughly shocked if he throws the ball less than 35 times a game (avg).

My conservative projection (I don't project missed games, but will adjust my drafting according to how I see injury concerns):

16g x 37att = 592 att (@ 65%) x 7.0 ypa = 4,144 28 TD 18 INT (with negligible rushing stats)

 

[David Yudkin]

From today's FBG update:

We don't think the Broncos will be a pass happy team, but Manning could average around 32 passing attempts per game.

Despite the claims of FBG staff groupthink, I'll just have to strongly disagree with that one.I am skeptical about Manning's health. But on a per game basis, I've got no doubt that he'll be among the league leaders in attempts. If you've got Manning at 32 attempts per game, you either think the Broncos D is going to be lights out or the running game is going to be awesome.

I don't know what the staff group think allegations are involving Manning, but I think things to at least revie and consider include:- In 10 years as a head coach, the teams he's coached have averaged 474 passing attempts and 476 rushing attempts per year. He's had 3 teams with 500+ passing attempts and 4 teams with 500+ rushing attempts. On the surface, it appears that his teams run and pass equally. I will certainly concede that at no point did he ever have a QB in the class of Manning, but at least this is a loose baseline to start from.- I think a lot of people are ignoring the fact that Manning has had multiple surgeries and missed an entire season of football. Maybe he will bounce right back and not miss a beat, but I would expect his numbers to drop off some given the layoff, his health, his age, playing on a new team, playing on grass and outdoors, etc. Who knows if the patched together Manning could endure 37-38 passing attempts every week?- I would not be shocked if Manning did not play all 16 games, so that obviously would reduce his number of attempts. I don't know a realistic projection in terms of how many offensive plays the Broncos will run, but if their total is 950 (as would be the baseline), IMO 600+ passing attemtps to 350 rushing attempts seems a bit askew.- If Manning is the old Manning, he may not need 600 attempts to hae a great season. However, his 2010 season was great fantasy wise, but that was based on volume not quality. His YPA, passer rating, TD% numbers, etc. were lower than they had been in years. - Using 2010 as a guide, let's say Manning performs at the same rates in terms of completions, TD%, INT%, YPA, etc. but scale down his attempts to say 550 (which is a more realistic number to use in my book). That would leave Manning at 3807/26/13 on the season. 550 attempts would be the most attempts for a Fox coached team (and Manning ). One would think Denver would refrain from running Manning if at all possible, as I am pretty sure they would rather have him fall down than take a hit and it would seem odd if he ran any sneaks. Basically, I would not expect much in terms of fantasy production from rushing. Off the top, I would guess that would rank him as a low end QB1 depending upon how crazy the QB scoring is this year. Of course, if he aired it out all game, performed at a high level, and played in 16 games he would rank higher.

 

[Touchdown There]

Using 2010 as a guide.

It all comes down to this. Manning's neck got worse year to year until he had the surgeries. His neck was terrible in 2010. Maybe a healthy and refreshed Peyton Manning is better than you give him credit for. He has always been a non-running durable pocket QB, which has lower risk and higher upside if he is truly healthy. I like Manning more than Vick to play 16 games.

 

[shredhead]

- I would not be shocked if Manning did not play all 16 games

Based on what?????? 13 seasons without missing a game? Don't give me the neck surgery BS, he is at no more risk to be injured than any other player in the league. Sorry to pick on you, you're not the only one saying this, I just tend to ignore anyone who tries to predict injuries in the NFL.

 

[Tau837]

- I would not be shocked if Manning did not play all 16 games

Based on what?????? 13 seasons without missing a game? Don't give me the neck surgery BS, he is at no more risk to be injured than any other player in the league. Sorry to pick on you, you're not the only one saying this, I just tend to ignore anyone who tries to predict injuries in the NFL.

I projected him to play 16 games, but I disagree with your bolded statement. IMO it is reasonable to think a 36 year old is less likely to play 16 games than players who are much younger. Especially a 36 year old who missed all 16 games last year.

 

[shredhead]

- I would not be shocked if Manning did not play all 16 games

Based on what?????? 13 seasons without missing a game? Don't give me the neck surgery BS, he is at no more risk to be injured than any other player in the league. Sorry to pick on you, you're not the only one saying this, I just tend to ignore anyone who tries to predict injuries in the NFL.

I projected him to play 16 games, but I disagree with your bolded statement. IMO it is reasonable to think a 36 year old is less likely to play 16 games than players who are much younger. Especially a 36 year old who missed all 16 games last year.

Fair enough, I'll give you the age thing. I don't think missing last season has any effect on this season though. My stock broker always warns me not to predict future values based on past returns.

 

[5-ish Finkle]

I'm guessing that missing last season doesn't have as much to do with those predicting the possibility of <16 games started as why he missed it does. That "injury that is 100% healed" that he had is no joke, and to deem him "cured" is whistling past the graveyard, at least a bit, in my mind.

Expecting '12 Manning to be '10 Manning isn't something I'm interested in. Not at this point, anyway. 13 seasons without missing a game is great, no question. Now, how many of those seasons was he coming back from multiple neck fusion procedures?

Yeah, we're all reading the relatively glowing camp reports about how Manning looks so far from Cecil, et al....but, unless I'm mistaken, he has yet to be hit since his most recent procedure, right?

I don't think a healthy Manning should necessarily be bet against, but until I see him survive some legitimate contact I don't think anyone who is predicting the possibility that he starts less than 16 games should be considered unreasonable either.

I honestly don't know where I'd be comfortable drafting him, or definitively what I'd project him for(haven't got the the Broncos yet). He's certainly not on my 'don't draft' list, but I am also not presently lathered up over the idea of having him as my QB1 over guys like Romo, Rivers or...dare I say it....Eli.

 

[Jason Wood]

FWIW, I'm 100% with Chase on this one. If people want to discount Manning because of the neck issues and the change of venue (in particular the weather and outdoor conditions in the late part of the season), I can understand that. But if people are really letting him fall because they worry John Fox' conservative nature is going to turn Manning into a ball control QB, I think they're massively off base. You don't completely reshape the direction of your team and bring in Peyton Manning because you want him to be a model of efficiency while you try to win games with a ground attack and strong defensive play. And anyone making comparisons to Fox' former teams' offensive production is forgetting two MASSIVELY important points:

1) John Fox is a defensive guy

2) He's never had Peyton Manning

Honestly, sometimes I think people overthink things. If Manning is healthy (the big if), I see absolutely no reason he won't put up numbers very much within his (stellar) baseline.

 

[Michael Brown]

Apologies in advance for the brain fart on my spotlight submission that Denver had worked out a trade with Indy to acquire Manning. Should have said release/free agent signing obviously. I'm apparently still in preseason mode too...

 

[Tau837]

FWIW, I'm 100% with Chase on this one. If people want to discount Manning because of the neck issues and the change of venue (in particular the weather and outdoor conditions in the late part of the season), I can understand that. But if people are really letting him fall because they worry John Fox' conservative nature is going to turn Manning into a ball control QB, I think they're massively off base. You don't completely reshape the direction of your team and bring in Peyton Manning because you want him to be a model of efficiency while you try to win games with a ground attack and strong defensive play. And anyone making comparisons to Fox' former teams' offensive production is forgetting two MASSIVELY important points:1) John Fox is a defensive guy2) He's never had Peyton ManningHonestly, sometimes I think people overthink things. If Manning is healthy (the big if), I see absolutely no reason he won't put up numbers very much within his (stellar) baseline.

I posted one of the lower projections, but I didn't forget either of your "massively important" points. In fact, I mentioned both of them. But I also cited other reasoning that you and Chase have chosen to brush off.That's fine, I respect your opinions, but I think you are too quick to dismiss opposing views.

 

[Chase Stuart]

In Indianapolis, Manning averaged 34.7 passing attempts per game, which is an average of 555 passing attempts per season.

...

Put it all together, and I think Manning will attempt fewer passes than he did in Indianapolis. I'll project 32 passing attempts per game, which projects to 512 over 16 games.

Here's the problem with that analysis. His last 3 years in Indy, he averaged 602 pass attempts. As the league becomes a more passing league, so does Manning.Look at 2009 and 2010. The Colts started 14-0 and threw 534 passes in those 14 games. That's 38 pass attempts per game during an undefeated stretch!

In 2010, the Colts were good but not great. Manning averaged 42.4 pass attempts per game.

From '06 to '10, ignoring games where Manning rested, he averaged 35.4 pass attempts per game in wins and 43.1 in losses. From '08 to '10, it was 37.0 in wins and 46.3 in losses.

So looking at his career attempts per game biases Manning because (1) in the current NFL, teams pass more than ever, Manning included, and (2) Denver is likely to be trailing more often than, on average, his Colts teams were.

Assuming no Manning injury -- which is a huge assumption -- I think you have to put him at 600 attempts at a minimum.

Your quote is messed up, as it should refer to a post of mine.Good info here. However:

- Manning is 36 and coming off a missed season due to multiple surgeries. I agree that Manning is no lock to play in 16 games, but I don't think this changes how many passes he attempts when healthy.

- Manning no longer has Tom Moore as his OC and now has John Fox, who in the past has tended toward conservative offenses, as his head coach. I don't consider this much of a factor. Moore was phased out by 2010, when Manning had his highest number of attempts. Yes, Fox has been conservative, but that's (to me) entirely a function of his quarterbacks. Remember, Bill Parcells was considered uber conservative and then he got Drew Bledsoe and starting breaking pass attempts records. In 2004, even with Steve Smith out for the year, Carolina ranked 11th in pass attempts with Jake Delhomme.

- Manning is no longer playing with Harrison, Wayne, or Clark.True, but I think this speaks more to his efficiency than his number of attempts, and if anything, a less efficient may throw more passes. Agree that the weapons in Denver are worse, but there's enough with Thomas, Decker, and Tamme for Manning to work with. In any event, it's not like the Broncos running game is all that dominant.

- Manning is no longer playing his home games in a dome.Again, this seems to speak more to efficiency than attempts.

None of these things were true in any of the seasons you cited. You also didn't acknowledge the outlier aspect of the 675 attempts he had in 2010 that skews the averages you posted. In some ways it was an outlier, but not in others. From '07 to '09, the Colts averaged 13 wins. In 2010, they had 10. They trailed more often and therefore passed more often. Don't forget, he also missed over a full game in 2009 as he rested for the playoffs. Manning's Colts often had very low drive numbers, and I don't know if that's likely to continue in Denver.

Sure, if Manning ends up with 600 attempts, he'll probably be a solid value at his draft position. But that is extremely unlikely IMO.

 

[JetMaxx]

I don't know who is quoting who but I'm buying until/unless the preseason proves me wrong.

 

[ManningFor6]

Is the fan in this video being too optimistic about signing Peyton Manning this season or do you think it's going to be Raining Touchdowns this season in Denver. This is going to be one of the hardest players to pinpoint when to draft IMO.

 

[Newmancrew]

Peyton shredded the 49ers today. Do we see his ADP start to rise?

 

[VaTerp]

Manning was not on my radar at all until he looked pretty good against the 49ers that Sunday night. Still did not anticipate drafting him then low and behold my auction gets CRAZY and I end up being the 11th of 12 people to get a QB- Peyton Manning.

I've been surprised at the relative lack of discussion of him on this board. Cautiously optimistic that Manning can gain regain most of his old form but VERY concerned about all of the obvious question marks.

What are people's thoughts now after a mixed pre-season?

 

[jdubs952]

Manning was not on my radar at all until he looked pretty good against the 49ers that Sunday night. Still did not anticipate drafting him then low and behold my auction gets CRAZY and I end up being the 11th of 12 people to get a QB- Peyton Manning.I've been surprised at the relative lack of discussion of him on this board. Cautiously optimistic that Manning can gain regain most of his old form but VERY concerned about all of the obvious question marks.What are people's thoughts now after a mixed pre-season?

Was actually targeting him in our 12 team league (4 pts / td passing). I was waiting it out on a QB with one other guy who was targeting RG3, when RG3 went off the board in the 8th as someone's backup QB, I had to bounce on Peyton before that other guy drafted him. If he's the peyton of old - and i know it was just 1 quarter, but it was against the 49ers and he torched them - he can win people some leagues. I backed him up w/ Russel Wilson a few rounds later.

 

[the spanker]

I'm starting to get cold feet to start him against the Steelers D. Only problem is I got Big Ben playing against Denver on the road with questionable OL and RBs.

Anyone feeling the same about Manning as your starter?

 

[moleculo]

I'm starting to get cold feet to start him against the Steelers D. Only problem is I got Big Ben playing against Denver on the road with questionable OL and RBs.Anyone feeling the same about Manning as your starter?

yeah, I'm nervous. 1st game back after a year off, on a new team, facing what has been a great defense? Not sure I'm all that keen on Mannign this week. Benching Manning for cutler.

 

[Sarnoff]

.

 

[VaTerp]

I'm starting to get cold feet to start him against the Steelers D. Only problem is I got Big Ben playing against Denver on the road with questionable OL and RBs.Anyone feeling the same about Manning as your starter?

yeah, I'm nervous. 1st game back after a year off, on a new team, facing what has been a great defense? Not sure I'm all that keen on Mannign this week. Benching Manning for cutler.

Don't like this matchup at all out of the gate. Unfortunately my auction did not go as planned and I have no good option other than Peyton. The game being in Denver and Clark being out might be slight advantages. I also happen to have the Steeler D though I'm debating between starting them or Denver. Anyways, not a good matchup out of the gate but it should be an early indicator of where he's at to start the season. At the very least will be a very interesting opening Sunday night. Let the games begin!