Player Spotlight: Greg Jennings, WR, Minnesota Vikings (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Greg Jennings, WR, Minnesota Vikings

Player Page Link: Greg Jennings Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
• FBG Projections
• Consensus Member Projections
  

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate
  

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Eminence]

Decent talent, should get the bulk of targets in Minnesota. Peterson should open up things for him.

Buy low.

 

[MaxThreshold]

Decent talent, should get the bulk of targets in Minnesota. Peterson should open up things for him.Buy low.

But then again, he now has Ponder throwing to the ground in front of him.

 

[meyerj31]

Decent talent, should get the bulk of targets in Minnesota. Peterson should open up things for him.Buy low.

But then again, he now has Ponder throwing to the ground in front of him.

Man I am flabbergasted at the hate for Ponder on these boards. He was QB17 in QBR last year and is only two years into the league. Forget the Lucks and RGIIIs for a minute, ok? Most QBs take 5 years to develop. Ponder is well on his way to a successful NFL career. Is he ever going to be a Brady, Manning, or Rodgers? No, but there are plenty of teams that would like the 17th best QB in any given year.

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

Before Jennings went to Minnesota, I viewed him as the best value WR in fantasy. His last two seasons he suffered from nagging injuries which tainted his stats and since he turns 30 at the start of the season, owners are bumping him down another notch even more. The reality is that WRs, especially good route runners, can still perform at an elite level into their mid 30s and beyond. I sort of put 34 as the last year a WR can be counted on - any good production past that age is simply a bonus. I definitely think Jennings is of that Reggie Wayne ilk, where he can produce steadily for another 5 years, barring injury and barring...

Awful QB situation. Everything changes now that Jennings has Ponder throwing the ball. I'm definitely not discounting Jennings, but certainly the probability of elite production dips significantly with any non-Rodgers QB, not to mention, Ponder.

So I'm not going to make any bold predictions in May but if Jennings continues to put up less than WR1 stats, it won't be his fault (barring injury).

 

[JetMaxx]

With Ponder's inability and ADP's insane ability, he's got a chance at 900 yds and 6 TDs.

 

[cstu]

Before Jennings went to Minnesota, I viewed him as the best value WR in fantasy. His last two seasons he suffered from nagging injuries which tainted his stats and since he turns 30 at the start of the season, owners are bumping him down another notch even more. The reality is that WRs, especially good route runners, can still perform at an elite level into their mid 30s and beyond. I sort of put 34 as the last year a WR can be counted on - any good production past that age is simply a bonus. I definitely think Jennings is of that Reggie Wayne ilk, where he can produce steadily for another 5 years, barring injury and barring...

Awful QB situation. Everything changes now that Jennings has Ponder throwing the ball. I'm definitely not discounting Jennings, but certainly the probability of elite production dips significantly with any non-Rodgers QB, not to mention, Ponder.

So I'm not going to make any bold predictions in May but if Jennings continues to put up less than WR1 stats, it won't be his fault (barring injury).

I'm not too concerned about his situation and I think Ponder is getting a bad rap for a 2nd year QB. There's risk to the situation but Ponder has been no worse than Bradford his first couple years. Now he has two legitimate NFL receivers to throw to instead of just Harvin. I think at worst Jennings puts up WR2 numbers and has low WR1 upside.

 

[Bdub]

80/1075 6 tds

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

Before Jennings went to Minnesota, I viewed him as the best value WR in fantasy. His last two seasons he suffered from nagging injuries which tainted his stats and since he turns 30 at the start of the season, owners are bumping him down another notch even more. The reality is that WRs, especially good route runners, can still perform at an elite level into their mid 30s and beyond. I sort of put 34 as the last year a WR can be counted on - any good production past that age is simply a bonus. I definitely think Jennings is of that Reggie Wayne ilk, where he can produce steadily for another 5 years, barring injury and barring...

Awful QB situation. Everything changes now that Jennings has Ponder throwing the ball. I'm definitely not discounting Jennings, but certainly the probability of elite production dips significantly with any non-Rodgers QB, not to mention, Ponder.

So I'm not going to make any bold predictions in May but if Jennings continues to put up less than WR1 stats, it won't be his fault (barring injury).

I'm not too concerned about his situation and I think Ponder is getting a bad rap for a 2nd year QB. There's risk to the situation but Ponder has been no worse than Bradford his first couple years. Now he has two legitimate NFL receivers to throw to instead of just Harvin. I think at worst Jennings puts up WR2 numbers and has low WR1 upside.

The hopeful and optimistic side of me agrees with you and I think his floor is somewhere around 65/900/7. I mean, Harvin was doing some good things with Ponder. I just think he was a virtual lock to be a WR1 had he stayed in GB.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

80/1075 6 tds

This seems reasonable. Harvin had 79 targets last year in 8 games (85 targets in total, but he was hurt during game 9). I don't expect Jennings to have the same # of targets per game, but it's realistic to think he'll have something closer to Harvin's previous 2 seasons, when he had 109 and 120 targets respectively.

Jennings with 120 targets should have a minimum of 70 catches, probably higher given his route running and the likely emphasis defenses will place on stopping AP. During his healthy seasons in Green Bay, Jennings also had ~120 targets per season over 4 years....while they run different offenses, the data points to similar places.

So let's call it 120 targets, 75 catches, 13.5 yds per reception, 1010 yards, 7 TDs. That would have put him at WR 21 last year, between Steve Smith and Lance Moore. Doesn't seem like Jennings is criminally underrated unless folks have very different expectations for him.

 

[Sabertooth]

People underestimate how good Jennings is. He is truly a polished, gifted wide receiver. However I don't like Ponder's accuracy at all. I think 80/1000 and 5 is about right.

 

[Jason Wood]

I agree that Jennings is too quickly dismissed by those who see the Packers plug and play receivers with reckless abandon. He's a gifted receiver with great hands, proven YAC ability, runs precise routes, and can track the ball down in traffic. He profiles as a true #1 and is hardly too old to think he doesn't have productive seasons left in the tank. That being said, I really don't like the landing spot because I struggle with Ponder vs. Rodgers (and Matt Cassel as the backup) and what's sure to be a run heavy offense. Jennings should get plenty of targets, but can Ponder be an effective downfield passer? Remember, before Jennings' last two partial (injury stricken) seasons, he was a 16 yards per catch guy who worked the outside effectively. That's what the Vikings are paying him to be, I'm just not convinced they have the quarterbacks to make that happen.

 

[BC3]

I am actually intrigued by the offense in Minny this year. With the addition of Jennings and Patterson to go with Kyle Rudolph and a healthy Jerome Simpson we could see them chuck it around a little bit more this year. I think last year after Harvin went down they decided... Why throw it around when you can just hand it to AP?

I believe he is a buy low right now because of Ponder/Cassel. I believe he is a Low WR1/High WR2 for 2013 and you can probalby get him for a Low WR2/WR3 price in some leagues. He has the skill set to produce no matter who his QB is because he is going to get open and can make plays after the catch. I also believe he has 4 or 5 years left of solid production.

 

[Shutout]

I have seen this story from a different side of the street. This reminds me of Reggie Wayne a few years ago but with a slight swerve in the way it set up. Jennings is a good-great WR but not elite. Wayne is also and they both get by more on smarts and route running ability than they do any particular physical attribute.

So I see Jennings walking into a situaiton where he absolutely will be affected by the change in system and team and QB. I think his season ends up being a mid 60's catches, about a 1,000, and probably 6-9TDs. That's not a bad season and probably he will be more consistent week to week than a lot of people you might draft in that range, but it is hard to envision him being that guy he was before.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

One of the problems with extrapolating anything about Jennings 2013 from Harvin's previous #s is that Harvin ran a lot of WR screens - high %, easy targets for Ponder. Ponder can be effective downfield, but he can also be brutal to watch - and that was with Peterson drawing 8 into the box at times and otherwise being the focus of the defense's attention. You might chalk some of that up to his poor quality WRs, but after Jennings, there is still isn't anyone who can threaten defenses and take the heat off of Jennings. So Jennings will likely get all of the attention in the opposition's pass defense game plan.

I wouldn't downplay his durability issues, either. He has played 21 games in the last two seasons, and last year was basically a complete loss. He pulled his groin in week 1, aggravated in week 3, then sat for about 3-4 weeks before finally having surgery. He had ZERO weeks over 10 pts in a PPR league before week 16.

For that matter, Ponder's durability issues also present some risk for Jennings, although not as much as before they signed Cassel. Ponder's arm injury flared up after the season and it was so bad that it caused him to go the ER. Still, Cassel was bad enough that the Chiefs decided to go with Brady Quinn instead for the 2nd half of the year, so it ain't good for Jennings if Ponder misses time.

I think where the consensus rankings have him - low WR2 - reflects his risk and reward well.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

One of the problems with extrapolating anything about Jennings 2013 from Harvin's previous #s is that Harvin ran a lot of WR screens - high %, easy targets for Ponder. Ponder can be effective downfield, but he can also be brutal to watch - and that was with Peterson drawing 8 into the box at times and otherwise being the focus of the defense's attention. You might chalk some of that up to his poor quality WRs, but after Jennings, there is still isn't anyone who can threaten defenses and take the heat off of Jennings. So Jennings will likely get all of the attention in the opposition's pass defense game plan.

I don't fully understand the bold. Who cares if he is the focal point of the pass defense? With AP running the ball, the pass defense is such an afterthought, it's hard to even seriously use the term "pass defense."

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

One of the problems with extrapolating anything about Jennings 2013 from Harvin's previous #s is that Harvin ran a lot of WR screens - high %, easy targets for Ponder. Ponder can be effective downfield, but he can also be brutal to watch - and that was with Peterson drawing 8 into the box at times and otherwise being the focus of the defense's attention. You might chalk some of that up to his poor quality WRs, but after Jennings, there is still isn't anyone who can threaten defenses and take the heat off of Jennings. So Jennings will likely get all of the attention in the opposition's pass defense game plan.

I don't fully understand the bold. Who cares if he is the focal point of the pass defense? With AP running the ball, the pass defense is such an afterthought, it's hard to even seriously use the term "pass defense."

Intuitively, you feel that way, but if passing against defenses obsessed with AD was so easy, why did Ponder struggle so much last year?

 

[Alex P Keaton]

One of the problems with extrapolating anything about Jennings 2013 from Harvin's previous #s is that Harvin ran a lot of WR screens - high %, easy targets for Ponder. Ponder can be effective downfield, but he can also be brutal to watch - and that was with Peterson drawing 8 into the box at times and otherwise being the focus of the defense's attention. You might chalk some of that up to his poor quality WRs, but after Jennings, there is still isn't anyone who can threaten defenses and take the heat off of Jennings. So Jennings will likely get all of the attention in the opposition's pass defense game plan.

I don't fully understand the bold. Who cares if he is the focal point of the pass defense? With AP running the ball, the pass defense is such an afterthought, it's hard to even seriously use the term "pass defense."

Intuitively, you feel that way, but if passing against defenses obsessed with AD was so easy, why did Ponder struggle so much last year?

a) Ponder isn't that good

b) he's still a young player

c) the best WR option on the team was injured half the year

You're confusing Ponder struggling with Jennings being a focal point of the defense. While there may be some overlap, those are separate concepts.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

One of the problems with extrapolating anything about Jennings 2013 from Harvin's previous #s is that Harvin ran a lot of WR screens - high %, easy targets for Ponder. Ponder can be effective downfield, but he can also be brutal to watch - and that was with Peterson drawing 8 into the box at times and otherwise being the focus of the defense's attention. You might chalk some of that up to his poor quality WRs, but after Jennings, there is still isn't anyone who can threaten defenses and take the heat off of Jennings. So Jennings will likely get all of the attention in the opposition's pass defense game plan.

I don't fully understand the bold. Who cares if he is the focal point of the pass defense? With AP running the ball, the pass defense is such an afterthought, it's hard to even seriously use the term "pass defense."

Intuitively, you feel that way, but if passing against defenses obsessed with AD was so easy, why did Ponder struggle so much last year?

a) Ponder isn't that good

b) he's still a young player

c) the best WR option on the team was injured half the year

You're confusing Ponder struggling with Jennings being a focal point of the defense. While there may be some overlap, those are separate concepts.

What I'm saying is that with Ponder's progress a question mark, there is less margin for error for Jennings. Not having even an adequate proven #2 option on the other side won't help his cause. Ponder also seemed to be somewhat shy about throwing into small windows or otherwise throwing players open. Again, no credible threat on the other side of the formation won't help here. Ponder's shortcomings and Jennings being the only proven game in town at WR magnify each other as risk factors.

 

[mr roboto]

If Patterson starts week 1 and plays more of the Harvin role, that could take the heat off of Jennings. Plus, Ponder hasn't had the veteran, polished receiver at all. Harvin's game was not precise routes, but short passes and explosive YAC. So a big quick Patterson on one side and a polished Jennings on the other, with Rudolph and AP. Definitely a big upgrade over the second half if last year IMO.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

If Patterson starts week 1

definitely will bump up Jennings a little if we are hearing/seeing good stuff about Patterson's readiness to start week 1

 

[Jason Wood]

One of the problems with extrapolating anything about Jennings 2013 from Harvin's previous #s is that Harvin ran a lot of WR screens - high %, easy targets for Ponder. Ponder can be effective downfield, but he can also be brutal to watch - and that was with Peterson drawing 8 into the box at times and otherwise being the focus of the defense's attention. You might chalk some of that up to his poor quality WRs, but after Jennings, there is still isn't anyone who can threaten defenses and take the heat off of Jennings. So Jennings will likely get all of the attention in the opposition's pass defense game plan.

I wouldn't downplay his durability issues, either. He has played 21 games in the last two seasons, and last year was basically a complete loss. He pulled his groin in week 1, aggravated in week 3, then sat for about 3-4 weeks before finally having surgery. He had ZERO weeks over 10 pts in a PPR league before week 16.

For that matter, Ponder's durability issues also present some risk for Jennings, although not as much as before they signed Cassel. Ponder's arm injury flared up after the season and it was so bad that it caused him to go the ER. Still, Cassel was bad enough that the Chiefs decided to go with Brady Quinn instead for the 2nd half of the year, so it ain't good for Jennings if Ponder misses time.

I think where the consensus rankings have him - low WR2 - reflects his risk and reward well.

To emphasize Bloom's point:

2013 -- Targets by Zone (Harvin)

Behind the line of scrimmage -- 32 targets (29 receptions)

0-9 yards from scrimmage -- 26 targets (21 receptions)

10-19 yards from scrimmage -- 18 targets (11 receptions)

20+ yards from scrimmage -- 5 targets (1 reception)

Greg Jennings (Combined 2010-2012 to factor in his injuries with his last elite full season)

Behind the line of scrimmage -- 4+8+8 (4+8+8) -- 20 targets (20 receptions)

0-9 yards -- 62+43+37 (46+36+27) -- 142 targets (109 receptions)

10-19 yards -- 62+32+14 (32+19+9) -- 108 targets (60 receptions)

20+ yards -- 36+20+11 (15+8+2) -- 67 targets (25 receptions)

 

[nirad3]

If Patterson starts week 1

definitely will bump up Jennings a little if we are hearing/seeing good stuff about Patterson's readiness to start week 1

Patterson is going to take some polish. I'd be looking for Jarius Wright to make some noise. Dude had 4 solid games (out of 7 played) in the 2nd half of last season.

But back to topic, the fact that Jennings is known for his crisp route-running should allow for instant rapport with Ponder. Those saying "Ponder sucks" and is "inaccurate" need to go back and look at last year's stats week-to-week.

Jennings will most certainly be a 1,000+ yard receiver but I'd temper my expectations with TDs.

 

[fightingillini]

Don't sleep on Jennings. Yes, Ponder is a major step down at QB, but defenses are going to be focused on Peterson. Jennings can have a nice bounce-back year and you may be getting a solid WR2 at a reduced price.

78 rec, 1075 yds, 7 TD

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

I see 1,000 yards as his ceiling, and no sure thing at that, so Jennings probably won't be on any of my teams.

Anytime a WR changes teams I'm automatically a little wary, unless his new QB is a big upgrade. That's not the case here. It's a run-first team and Jennings is good, not great, at this point. I agree that low-end WR2 reflects his risk but don't see the reward here.

 

[beto]

I think he has an adjustment year. Between possible injuries and lack of downfield targets I would put him at 60 rec 900 yds and 4 TDs. 2014 will be a better year to have him.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I think he has an adjustment year. Between possible injuries and lack of downfield targets I would put him at 60 rec 900 yds and 4 TDs. 2014 will be a better year to have him.

I don't understand the logic here - if Jennings struggles this year, given that he is an aging WR, then my strong expectation is that he's done as a fantasy factor. He won't likely get better at age 31.....he'll likely keep slipping.When Jennings was a rookie, his WR coach (who used to coach in Indy) compared his route running favorably to Marvin Harrison. The guy is a very, very good route runner. It all comes down to a) health, b) targets, c) Ponder's accuracy.

 

[Sabertooth]

Jennings is 29 right? I don't understand why he gets the "old" tag. This isn't Steve Smith or Reggie Wayne here. He's 29.

 

[cstu]

Jennings is 29 right? I don't understand why he gets the "old" tag. This isn't Steve Smith or Reggie Wayne here. He's 29.

30, but your point is still valid. He's been nicked up with injuries that past couple of years and that is scaring people off, but he's a type of guy like Wayne would could play well into his mid 30's.

 

[identikit]

Jennings is 29 right? I don't understand why he gets the "old" tag. This isn't Steve Smith or Reggie Wayne here. He's 29.

30, but your point is still valid. He's been nicked up with injuries that past couple of years and that is scaring people off, but he's a type of guy like Wayne would could play well into his mid 30's.

He will be 30 in September.

 

[cstu]

I think he has an adjustment year. Between possible injuries and lack of downfield targets I would put him at 60 rec 900 yds and 4 TDs. 2014 will be a better year to have him.

I don't understand the logic here - if Jennings struggles this year, given that he is an aging WR, then my strong expectation is that he's done as a fantasy factor. He won't likely get better at age 31.....he'll likely keep slipping.When Jennings was a rookie, his WR coach (who used to coach in Indy) compared his route running favorably to Marvin Harrison. The guy is a very, very good route runner. It all comes down to a) health, b) targets, c) Ponder's accuracy.

Wayne had 75/960/4 when Peyton was out. I could see a similar thing happening as he adjusts to going from Rodgers to Ponder.

 

[VikingFrog]

Kind of a thread derailment as it's more on Ponder than Jennings, but Jennings production will rely pretty heavily on Ponder.

I watched every game last year and know that Ponder can make some pretty abysmal decisions, but he also has the ability to make some great throws and keep plays alive.

Obviously a highlight video does not a great player make. But, he makes some tough throws, and some deep throws that Jennings should be able to take advantage of.

85/1200/6

I think Rudolph and Peterson are touchdown hogs, putting a limit on Jennings TD value.

If Ponder turns the corner this year, and Simpson and Patterson create coverage problems for opposing defenses, Jennings could have a very productive year.

 

[mr roboto]

To the Ponder concern, he hasn't had a polished vet to throw to. His ceiling is mediocre to slightly above average IMO but coming out if college, he was considered the most pro ready. Typical decent QB with above average mobility. I think Jennings will improve Ponder.

I see Jennings at 80 1100 7.

 

[mjr]

I think Greg Jennings can be a bumble bee.

When you look at the size of their bodies compared to the size of their wings, you wonder how it's even possible that they can fly. It shouldn't be. Just the same you can look at WRs like Steve Smith, Andre Johnson...even Cecil Shorts, Blackmon, Stevie Johnson... and wonder how they can possibly put up good stats without marquee QBs under center. That shouldn't be either. Yet bumble bees and WRs alike defy our expectations. If there's a WR out there who can do it, it's Greg Jennings in my opinion. He was good before Rodgers, and if fully recovered from his injuries, I think he'll continue to be good after. He's a very experienced, very polished vet who just might make Ponder good enough to be his Fitzpatrick or Delhomme.

Looking at the Vikings offense as a whole, the unit ranked in the mid to upper 20's (and even 31st) in pass attempts, completions, passing yards and so on. That's not very promising for Jennings at first glance. But, they brought in Jennings and drafted Patterson for a reason; to correct that problem. While I certainly don't expect Minny to surge into the top half of the league in passing statistics, a shift toward the middle of the pack is a huge improvement I believe can benefit Jennings the most. What would it take for the Vikings to get there? About 70 more pass attempts and 900 passing yards over last season, which breaks down to roughly 4 more pass attempts and 56 yards or so per game. You don't need a Rodgers or Brady to do that, especially when you have the best RB in the league to help take the pressure off and you're bringing in WRs like Jennings and Patterson to do it with.

If he comes back @ 100%, I can see Jennings getting about 130 targets and 85 receptions as the clear #1, averaging about 12.0 per catch for 1020 yards and 8 or 9 TDs.

 

[TS Garp]

I like Jennings, but this isn't a great situation for him. The Vikings were 28th in the NFL in passing attempts last year. Even if we assume this total goes up 10% this year (certainly not a given), it still puts them in the bottom half of the league. The Vikings like Rudolph in the red zone -- his TD's came from 6, 1, 2, 15, 1, 20, 2, 7, and 3. Between Peterson and Rudolph, there won't be a ton of other red-zone opportunities to be had. Jennings was certainly brought in to be a true #1, but a #1 on this team is a very different thing than a #1 on another team. The Vikings will look to him to help keep defenses honest and stop (or at least tempt them) from stacking the box against Peterson, while they develop Patterson as an x factor, but his value may not be reflected in his stats.

A couple of other things to keep in mind:

* Jennings has never had more than 80 catches in a season (he had exactly 80 once) and he's only had more than 70 twice.

* Of the Top 25 Fantasy WR's last year (per FBG), only AJ Green, Vincent Jackson, Cecil Shorts, and Stevie Johnson caught passes from QB's that would generally be considered shaky or sub-par, i.e. on the same level as Ponder.

* The durability issues are real -- 21 games in the last 2 years.

Bottom line: I think Jennings will help the Vikings but I'd be hesitant to rely on him and I'd keep my expectations in check. His real value is as a low-end WR3 with upside. Relying on him for more than that is tricky.

My prediction:

70 catches, 952 yds, 13.6 ypc, 5 td's

 

[Alex P Keaton]

If there's a WR out there who can do it, it's Greg Jennings in my opinion. He was good before Rodgers, and if fully recovered from his injuries, I think he'll continue to be good after.

Wait, so Jennings was good before Rodgers? What a miracle, he was good with a Hall of Fame QB (Favre) throwing too him. What exactly is your point?

I don't necessarily have an issue with your broader post, but the comment about being good before Rodgers....

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I like Jennings, but this isn't a great situation for him. The Vikings were 28th in the NFL in passing attempts last year. Even if we assume this total goes up 10% this year (certainly not a given), it still puts them in the bottom half of the league. The Vikings like Rudolph in the red zone -- his TD's came from 6, 1, 2, 15, 1, 20, 2, 7, and 3. Between Peterson and Rudolph, there won't be a ton of other red-zone opportunities to be had. Jennings was certainly brought in to be a true #1, but a #1 on this team is a very different thing than a #1 on another team. The Vikings will look to him to help keep defenses honest and stop (or at least tempt them) from stacking the box against Peterson, while they develop Patterson as an x factor, but his value may not be reflected in his stats.

A couple of other things to keep in mind:

* Jennings has never had more than 80 catches in a season (he had exactly 80 once) and he's only had more than 70 twice.

* Of the Top 25 Fantasy WR's last year (per FBG), only AJ Green, Vincent Jackson, Cecil Shorts, and Stevie Johnson caught passes from QB's that would generally be considered shaky or sub-par, i.e. on the same level as Ponder.

* The durability issues are real -- 21 games in the last 2 years.

Bottom line: I think Jennings will help the Vikings but I'd be hesitant to rely on him and I'd keep my expectations in check. His real value is as a low-end WR3 with upside. Relying on him for more than that is tricky.

My prediction:

70 catches, 952 yds, 13.6 ypc, 5 td's

This also seems like a reasonable post overall. Very balanced. A couple of things to nitpick:

- so we're supposed to be worried.....by the presence of the massively talented Kyle Rudolph? Really? Maybe Rudolph got targets in the redzone due to lack of other options?

- Jennings hasn't caught more than 80 balls in a season. Because of the offense he played in - i.e., one that didn't force-feed the ball to its most talented WR. If he played on some ####ty team with a different philosophy (hi Brandon Marshall!) dude could have easily caught 100 balls per year. Again, overall enjoyed reading your post. Your prediction seems in the ballpark of likely outcomes.

 

[FF Ninja]

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/03/15/fantasy-reaction-greg-jennings-signs-with-minnesota/

 

[mjr]

If there's a WR out there who can do it, it's Greg Jennings in my opinion. He was good before Rodgers, and if fully recovered from his injuries, I think he'll continue to be good after.

Wait, so Jennings was good before Rodgers? What a miracle, he was good with a Hall of Fame QB (Favre) throwing too him. What exactly is your point? I don't necessarily have an issue with your broader post, but the comment about being good before Rodgers....

As good as Favre was, he wasn't the precision passer Rodgers is and he threw more INTs than any QB I can think of. When he moved on from GB to the Jets and their WRs, his passing yards dropped by roughly 700 on the year (to under 3500 yards) and his TDs dipped into the low 20's, with just as many interceptions thrown (this all on only 13 less pass attempts than his stats from the season before in GB, and you can't put any blame on the O-line because that line dominated the league with the ground and pound offense the Jets had at the time). The point being that even your future Hall of Famer Favre struggled without having WRs on par with Jennings to throw to in NY. So maybe instead of saying Jennings was good before Rodgers I should have just said Favre wasn't as good after Jennings?

 

[BroadwayG]

Poor guy, you know it's bad when the team decides to move forward with James Jones over you. He is going to be massively overdrafted. He won't supplant Rudolph in the Red Zone, and is going to an unattractive system with an unattractive QB situation. Borderline WR3 in PPR, bye week fill-in for standard.

55/675/3

 

[cstu]

Poor guy, you know it's bad when the team decides to move forward with James Jones over you.

If there's a WR out there who can do it, it's Greg Jennings in my opinion. He was good before Rodgers, and if fully recovered from his injuries, I think he'll continue to be good after.

Wait, so Jennings was good before Rodgers? What a miracle, he was good with a Hall of Fame QB (Favre) throwing too him. What exactly is your point? I don't necessarily have an issue with your broader post, but the comment about being good before Rodgers....

As good as Favre was, he wasn't the precision passer Rodgers is and he threw more INTs than any QB I can think of. When he moved on from GB to the Jets and their WRs, his passing yards dropped by roughly 700 on the year (to under 3500 yards) and his TDs dipped into the low 20's, with just as many interceptions thrown (this all on only 13 less pass attempts than his stats from the season before in GB, and you can't put any blame on the O-line because that line dominated the league with the ground and pound offense the Jets had at the time). The point being that even your future Hall of Famer Favre struggled without having WRs on par with Jennings to throw to in NY. So maybe instead of saying Jennings was good before Rodgers I should have just said Favre wasn't as good after Jennings?

Favre seems to have needed Jennings more than Jennings needed him.

He is going to be massively overdrafted. He won't supplant Rudolph in the Red Zone, and is going to an unattractive system with an unattractive QB situation. Borderline WR3 in PPR, bye week fill-in for standard.

55/675/3

I think you might have missed the part where they tried to sign him but for less than the Vikings were offering.

 

[griff321]

110-1100-7

Ponder's inability is being too heavily weighed as a detriment alone and should be used more as a window of insight into how Jennings will be used.

Ponder is terrible. He's wildly inconsistent and has demonstrated time after time that he's unable to make all the throws required of an NFL QB. The only thing Ponder has consistently done is allow a decent pass rush to rattle him to the point where his fundamentals breakdown. Everyone highlights the third year as the make or break season, but very few actually make the rise and from what I've seen out of Ponder I just don't feel he has "it." So because of Ponders inability, my gut tells me we will see a decline in the number of deep targets that Jennings sees. His YPC will certainly suffer as a result.

Still, Jennings has a host of positives.

This coaching staff has a track record of using a variety of ways to get the ball into the hands of playmakers and do it often. They didn't pay Jennings all that money to just line up outside and run deep routes. Make no mistake the Vikings will get him the ball and often, and because of Ponder's inabilities we'll see the vast majority of his attempts be short high percentage completion plays. We'll see Jenning moved all around the formation and used in bubble screens. Jennings certainly has the knowledge to play from any spot, will get open due to precise route running, and the talent to rack up YAC.

PPR he will be a beast, but in non-ppr leagues I would expect a few weeks with low yardage totals. My biggest concern with Jennings is durability. He's certainly going to take a lot of punishment.

 

[werdnoynek]

110-1100-7

Ponder's inability is being too heavily weighed as a detriment alone and should be used more as a window of insight into how Jennings will be used.

Ponder is terrible. He's wildly inconsistent and has demonstrated time after time that he's unable to make all the throws required of an NFL QB. The only thing Ponder has consistently done is allow a decent pass rush to rattle him to the point where his fundamentals breakdown. Everyone highlights the third year as the make or break season, but very few actually make the rise and from what I've seen out of Ponder I just don't feel he has "it." So because of Ponders inability, my gut tells me we will see a decline in the number of deep targets that Jennings sees. His YPC will certainly suffer as a result.

Still, Jennings has a host of positives.

This coaching staff has a track record of using a variety of ways to get the ball into the hands of playmakers and do it often. They didn't pay Jennings all that money to just line up outside and run deep routes. Make no mistake the Vikings will get him the ball and often, and because of Ponder's inabilities we'll see the vast majority of his attempts be short high percentage completion plays. We'll see Jenning moved all around the formation and used in bubble screens. Jennings certainly has the knowledge to play from any spot, will get open due to precise route running, and the talent to rack up YAC.

PPR he will be a beast, but in non-ppr leagues I would expect a few weeks with low yardage totals. My biggest concern with Jennings is durability. He's certainly going to take a lot of punishment.

As a packer fan, I don't know if "getting the ball to the playmaker" will involve Jennings. He's not a guy you get the ball to make plays anymore nor is he a guy to feed anymore. He will be a possession receiver only now as he was last season (while healthy) with the Packers. While he'll be one of the few targets in MN and he will certainly get his while healthy (which will be an achievement in itself), IMO I think Patterson will surprise and take the role of the playmaker and the FEEDME target. They'll force feed him instead of Jennings IMO and there will be a bit of a let down to the Vikings fans dreaming of the Jennings that tore them apart in the past.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Most QBs take 5 years to develop.

The really good ones?

Manning, no.

Brady, no.

Roethlisberger, no.

Brees, yes.

Newton, no.

Griffith, no.

Luck, no.

Wilson, no.

Rodgers , no. (Took 4 only because of all-time great QB)

Ryan, no.

Schaub, yes.

Romo, yes.

Rivers, no. (but he seems to have reverted)

Flacco, no.

Dalton, no.

E Manning, no.

Palmer, no.

Stafford, no.

Bradford, "yes" but year 4 coming up.

Cutler, no.

 

[5-ish Finkle]

I think Greg Jennings can be a bumble bee.

That made me think of this.

Then I chortled.

Just a little.

 

[FunkyPlutos]

Just wanted to say that I think Jennings will make Ponder a better QB...Jennings is a good WR so he will get good numbers - but Ponder is not Rodgers (not many are)...

 

[Biabreakable]

It is always somewhat challenging to predict how a free agent WR will transition with a new team. There are definite doubts about the Vikings QB and their passing game from last season.

Jennings however is a pro's pro and regarded by many as a technician of the game. All of his routes look the way he wants them to look at the beginning but the defender has a difficult time covering Jennings after he makes his break. This precision will allow Ponder to trust that Jennings is going to be in a certain place on the field every time he runs that route, and Ponder will be able to throw to him with anticipation. I think Jennings will become a safety valve for Ponder and I think Jennings knows where the 1st down marker is on 3rd down.

Jennings can play any of the WR roles.

The Vikings WR over the past 2 seasons have been the suck except for Harvin. Even Harvin was used most frequently as a slot WR/COP RB role. This is an important role in the Vikings offense, and Patterson will now fill that role. But Patterson is a rookie. So expect to see Jennings get some of those looks as well, especially early on while Patterson is getting up to speed. I also see Jarius Wright getting some of those looks as well.

Another WR role is the deep threat played by Simpson, Aromashadu, Berrian in recent years. I think Jennings will get some of these looks and the Vikings continue to use Simpson in this role as well. Childs would be the long shot for looks here if he is healthy.

The last role would be possession receiver played recently by Jenkins. I see Jennings absorbing all of this role, plus some of the slot and deep targets.

Vikings passing offense in 2013

Ponder 460-540 Passing Attempts

RB 60-90 targets
TE 95-120 targets
Simpson 20-40 targets
Patterson 60-80 targets
Wright 50-70 targets

Jennings 80-140 targets 70-90catches 13.4ypc (dinged 2 yds because of Ponder) 938-1206yds 6-10TD