INDIANAPOLIS — Giants general manager Joe Schoen is scheduled to speak to reporters from the combine Tuesday. Schoen last held a news conference in the immediate aftermath of the Giants’ playoff loss, so this will be his first opportunity to provide an update on the status of negotiations with quarterback Daniel Jones and running back Saquon Barkley.
Before Schoen weighs in, here are some thoughts on the Giants as the offseason kicks into high gear:
• Once Schoen committed to retaining Jones, the initial number for an average annual salary the quarterback’s camp presented in negotiations became the single most important piece of information of the offseason. That’s why there was such an uproar when it was reported that Jones is seeking $45 million “or more.”
I can’t confirm that exact number was presented by Jones’ camp in negotiations with the Giants (although no one credible has refuted it), but I have heard that his sights are set high. And hysteria aside, $45 million is a logical starting point from Jones’ camp.
Kyler Murray, who was the No. 1 pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, received a five-year, $230.5 million extension from the Cardinals last offseason. Jones, who was the No. 6 pick in the 2019 draft, hasn’t produced at the same level as Murray. But unlike Murray, Jones has a playoff win on his resume. And with the salary cap skyrocketing, it makes sense to use a monster contract signed by a quarterback in Jones’ draft class as a reference point.
The Giants certainly won’t give Jones a multiyear contract worth $45 million per year. They have the franchise tag at their disposal, which will lock Jones in for 2023 at $32.4 million. But even if Jones is willing to settle around $40 million per year, he wasn’t going to open negotiations at that figure. Knowing the team would likely start around the tag amount, Jones could have come in at $45 million with the expectation that the sides could find a middle ground closer to $40 million.
• The average annual salary is only part of the negotiating puzzle. While that’s used to establish the pecking order among peers at the time a contract is signed, the more important aspects of Jones’ contract will be the length and structure of the guarantees.
The Giants obviously like Jones enough to want him to remain their quarterback. But they’re not prepared to hand him a blank check. So the structure of the contract will reveal how committed they are to the 25-year-old.
A five-year contract would be best for the Giants from a salary-cap perspective, as that would allow them to fully prorate the cap charges from a lucrative signing bonus. The team also could boost the base salaries in the final two years of a five-year deal to inflate the overall average annual value of the contract.
The issue with a five-year contract is it almost certainly would include hefty guarantees into the third year of the deal, making it difficult to dump Jones if he doesn’t continue developing or if durability concerns re-emerge over the next two seasons.
A three-year deal would give the Giants the ability to dump Jones sooner — likely after Year 2. But there’s little room to backload a shorter contract, so Jones would have substantial cap hits throughout a three-year deal.
Jones wouldn’t be motivated to sign a short-term deal that doesn’t guarantee him at least $71 million in the first two years, since that’s how much he’ll make if he gets tagged in each of the next two seasons.
Schoen will need to thread a fine needle in these negotiations, and it will likely take creativity in the contract structure to avoid the franchise tag.
• If there’s an impasse in negotiations, a narrative surely will emerge that Jones should take a team-friendly deal and/or avoid the tag so the organization can spend more on his supporting cast. It’s an understandable notion, but it’s not Jones’ job to manage the Giants’ roster and salary cap.
Don’t forget that the Giants exposed Jones to the cold business side of the NFL when they didn’t exercise his fifth-year option last offseason. Though that was the prudent decision at the time, it forced Jones into a prove-it year rather than having a guaranteed $22.4 million salary for 2023.
Jones played well enough without the security of the fifth-year option to position himself to cash in. He doesn’t owe the Giants anything at the negotiating table.
Any implication that Jones is being greedy in negotiations is nonsense. NFL players have short earning windows, so they’d be foolish not to maximize their leverage whenever possible.