What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

QB Derek Carr, NO (1 Viewer)

The Athletic's Vic Tafur reports there are "no absolutes" with contract-year QB Derek Carr at this point. 

Per Tafur, "it seems like the Raiders would prefer to do a shorter deal than a longer-term one." Tafur guesses that would rund the Raiders around $40 million per season, "including a large signing bonus with upfront cash — which has never been owner Mark Davis’ style." New coach Josh McDaniels said last week there was "no doubt" Carr would be the Raiders' Week 1 starter, though new GM Dave Ziegler was more vague. There are multiple reports that teams are gauging the Raiders' trade interest. We would not take anything for granted with Vegas' 30-year-old signal caller. 

SOURCE: The Athletic 

Mar 6, 2022, 1:49 PM ET
Click to expand...

 
The Cleveland Plain Dealer's Mary Kay Cabot reports the Browns have had Derek Carr "on their radar" this offseason.

At the conclusion of the Browns' forgettable 2021 season, it was widely assumed Cleveland would make every effort to upgrade on Baker Mayfield under center, but coach Kevin Stefanski has at times this offseason hyped up his beleaguered incumbent starter. There just aren't many avenues to significantly upgrade on Mayfield if you're the Browns. Carr would be a modest one, if one at all. And both quarterbacks need new contracts. Multiple teams have reportedly shown interest in Carr. It remains unclear if the Raiders are actually open to trading him.

RELATED: 

Cleveland Browns

SOURCE: Cleveland Plain Dealer

Mar 9, 2022, 9:56 PM ET
Click to expand...

 
Before last year, (and before Ruggs got arrested), I made the call that Carr would be a top 5 fantasy QB.  Even after the mess of last year, Carr ended up as the 5th fantasy QB in my league.  Herbert was #2.

I own both Herbert and Carr.  I have Carr for a song and Herbert at a much higher price.  High, but not too high.

With the addition of Adams, is it a no brainer to keep Carr over Herbert now?  I'd be saving like $30, which is a ton.  

 
Silver & Black said:
Before last year, (and before Ruggs got arrested), I made the call that Carr would be a top 5 fantasy QB.  Even after the mess of last year, Carr ended up as the 5th fantasy QB in my league.  Herbert was #2.

I own both Herbert and Carr.  I have Carr for a song and Herbert at a much higher price.  High, but not too high.

With the addition of Adams, is it a no brainer to keep Carr over Herbert now?  I'd be saving like $30, which is a ton.  
Click to expand...
Depends on settings. Carr needs 40 TD's to be a good QB1 in normal leagues since he doesn't run. Herbert has the potential to be Josh Allen if he runs more. Plus he's just a better player. 

 
Raiders signed Derek Carr to a three-year, $121.5 million extension through 2025. 

Carr was entering the final year of his deal in 2022 but is now set to start for the Raiders for at least the next four seasons. It's a slightly risky move given that the Raiders have yet to see Carr in new head coach Josh McDaniels' offense. At the same time, Carr played well last season ranking QB14 in EPA per play and QB12 in completion percentage over expected, and will now be playing with Davante Adams. It's reasonable to expect that Carr will take a step forward this season. Still, the Raiders could have a tough go of it over the next four seasons as they compete in a division with Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and Russell Wilson. Carr's new deal is good news for Raiders pass catchers, overall. If Carr can rekindle his college connection with Adams, he could be a low-end fantasy QB1.

RELATED: 

Davante Adams

SOURCE: Ian Rapoport on Twitter

Apr 13, 2022, 10:49 AM ET
Click to expand...

 
Anarchy99 said:
Carr is worth $40M a year?
Click to expand...
He's been top 8-12 in DVOA for the past three years, according to Football Outsiders. That puts him with Kirk Cousins from '19-'21, Matt Ryan '12-'14, and Big Ben for two three-year interludes. Those are, in their words, three "good" quarterbacks. 

He probably is worth that. 

 
rockaction said:
He's been top 8-12 in DVOA for the past three years, according to Football Outsiders. That puts him with Kirk Cousins from '19-'21, Matt Ryan '12-'14, and Big Ben for two three-year interludes. Those are, in their words, three "good" quarterbacks. 

He probably is worth that. 
Click to expand...
All those QBs may have had some solid numbers, but they didn't seem to win a ton of games. Maybe it's unfair to put the wins and losses on them, but one would think that would have yielded better results (team wise).

I am not a subscriber, but I am guessing the Big Ben years were 09-11 and 14-16. He went 28-13 and 29-13 in those years. Cousins went 25-22. Ryan went 23-25. Carr went 25-24. None of those QBs advanced to the SB in any of those seasons (if I had the Big Ben years right).

One would think with that level of QB play and efficiency that those teams would have had better records (admittedly the Steelers were a very good team). It doesn't appear that having decent numbers for these QBs elevated the team to elite levels and more wins. Again, maybe that's not fair to pin that all on them, but it makes you at least take pause to wonder why they didn't win more.

 
It seems equitable for the market, Carr seems like a good fit for McDaniels offense and when you likely just used Carr to help lure Adams it's hard to not commit to him. But if I ran a team I'd have a hard time giving a QB who I don't think elevates his team or players around him that much money. If that's the market I'd just shop in the Jameis Winston $14M APY type of neighborhood instead. (though I think he'd be a poor fit for McDaniels offense, just an example)

 
Anarchy99 said:
All those QBs may have had some solid numbers, but they didn't seem to win a ton of games. Maybe it's unfair to put the wins and losses on them, but one would think that would have yielded better results (team wise).

I am not a subscriber, but I am guessing the Big Ben years were 09-11 and 14-16. He went 28-13 and 29-13 in those years. Cousins went 25-22. Ryan went 23-25. Carr went 25-24. None of those QBs advanced to the SB in any of those seasons (if I had the Big Ben years right).

One would think with that level of QB play and efficiency that those teams would have had better records (admittedly the Steelers were a very good team). It doesn't appear that having decent numbers for these QBs elevated the team to elite levels and more wins. Again, maybe that's not fair to pin that all on them, but it makes you at least take pause to wonder why they didn't win more.
Click to expand...
In 2020 the Vikings had the 29th ranked defense. In 2021, they were 24th. I dont have to wonder why Cousins didnt win more. 

 
greenmountaingoat said:
I think he's my biggest bump in the fringe QB1 guys for redraft. I'd lump him in the 8-13 tier
Click to expand...
Granted, the Raiders added Adams and that should help, but Carr's year end fantasy rankings have been 20, 15, 14, 20, 18, 16, 13, and 12. He ranks higher in year-end rankings because he always plays. He's ranked 18th in fantasy PPG across the past 3 years. IMO, he's a decent fantasy QB2. He might not even finish the year in the Top 10 QBs in the AFC (although he should).

 
Cjw_55106 said:
In 2020 the Vikings had the 29th ranked defense. In 2021, they were 24th. I dont have to wonder why Cousins didnt win more. 
Click to expand...
Aaron Rodgers went 15-1 with the #32 ranked defense. Tom Brady went to the SB with the #31 ranked defense. Mahomes almost went to the SB with the #31 ranked defense. Carr isn't any of those players, but the point was more teams with great QBs can still win and advance with so so defenses.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Anarchy99 said:
Aaron Rodgers went 15-1 with the #32 ranked defense. Tom Brady went to the SB with the #31 ranked defense. Mahomes almost went to the SB with the #31 ranked defense. Carr isn't any of those players, but the point was more teams with great QBs can still win and advance with so so defenses.
Click to expand...
Cherry picking individual seasons is hilarious, not to mention the absurdity of the players that you’re choosing to cherry pick those seasons with. 

 
Cjw_55106 said:
Cherry picking individual seasons is hilarious, not to mention the absurdity of the players that you’re choosing to cherry pick those seasons with. 
Click to expand...
Not sure how it's cherry picking. Yes, the data set of high efficiency / highly rated QBs playing with poor defenses is small. I don't know how many Guys that have ranked in FO's Top 10 that have played with bottom of the barrel defenses. I listed three guys off the top of my head.

 
Looks like Zareh K (FBG) has Jack Coan and Cole Kelley ranked above Derek Carr in the dynasty QB rankings.

Can anyone confirm this?

 
TDCommish said:
Looks like Zareh K (FBG) has Jack Coan and Cole Kelley ranked above Derek Carr in the dynasty QB rankings.

Can anyone confirm this?
Click to expand...
Looks more like an oversight or loading error with Carr left off completely and not a case of really being ranked behind anyone

 
@Joe BryantFYI in case the Carr dynasty ranking is a loading error. Throws off the composite rankings.

I looked at other positional rankings.

He does not have Brandin Cooks, Skyy Moore,  and DeAndre Hopkins in his top 146 WRs rankings.

I'm just confused now.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
TDCommish said:
@Joe BryantFYI in case the Carr dynasty ranking is a loading error. Throws off the composite rankings.

I looked at other positional rankings.

He does not have Brandin Cooks, Skyy Moore,  and DeAndre Hopkins in his top 146 WRs rankings.

I'm just confused now.
Click to expand...


Thanks. Something is not loading properly. We'll fix. Thanks for the headsup.

 
One of the reasons I prefer Superflex leagues, is that it makes a guy like Carr much more relevant.

The knock on him IMO has been his pedestrian TD total.  He hasn't exceeded 30 in a season since 2016.  But if you look at the past 4 years, it's almost disgusting how bad his receiver corps has been.  Names like:

Tyrell Williams
Nelson Agholor
Henry Ruggs
Bryan Edwards
(A washed) Jordy Nelson
Seth Roberts

He has (arguably) the best WR in the game who happens to be a close friend and a college teammate.  Darren Waller, who he has had though, gets bumped from the primary focus of the passing attack to target #2...and Hunter Renfrow is Wes Welker/Julian Edelman for a Josh McDaniels led offense.

Given that most are penciling in the Raiders for 4th place in the AFC West, that should mean a fairly pass heavy attack.  He's ranging in the QB13 range right now, but I could see him having a Burrow/Dak type season now that he does legitimate weaponry.

 
TheDirtyWord said:
One of the reasons I prefer Superflex leagues, is that it makes a guy like Carr much more relevant.

The knock on him IMO has been his pedestrian TD total.  He hasn't exceeded 30 in a season since 2016.  But if you look at the past 4 years, it's almost disgusting how bad his receiver corps has been.  Names like:

Tyrell Williams
Nelson Agholor
Henry Ruggs
Bryan Edwards
(A washed) Jordy Nelson
Seth Roberts

He has (arguably) the best WR in the game who happens to be a close friend and a college teammate.  Darren Waller, who he has had though, gets bumped from the primary focus of the passing attack to target #2...and Hunter Renfrow is Wes Welker/Julian Edelman for a Josh McDaniels led offense.

Given that most are penciling in the Raiders for 4th place in the AFC West, that should mean a fairly pass heavy attack.  He's ranging in the QB13 range right now, but I could see him having a Burrow/Dak type season now that he does legitimate weaponry.
Click to expand...


Good post. I'll add that Ruggs was ascending just prior to his tragic and stupid decision to drink and drive and speed. In seven games last year, he posted a gaudy 19.5 YPR on 24 catches. During those seven games Carr threw for 12 TDs (29 TD pace). During the remaining 10 games, he threw for just 11 more (19 TD pace). Waller also missed half of those latter 10 games.

My biggest concern for Carr this season is the OL. I think JMcD & Co. have a plan for that unit, but with largely the same cast (of players) from last year coming back, we need to see them dramatically improve on the field before I can dismiss that concern. That said, the Pats system has a long track record of solid OL play, so there's plenty of reason for optimism here too.

 
You ain’t gotta tell me.
Ive been buying Carr and Raiders for a couple years now.
The Raiders had a miraculous turn of fortune with the way the Gruden era
turned into the McDaniels era. It’s a really LUCKY change of fortune, imo.
This ship could have gone down. And we would be rebuilding again.
But somehow the football gods smiled upon the Raiders.
I feel better about this team than I have since 1999.
 

Derek Carr completed 22-of-37 passes for 295 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions in the Raiders' 24-19, Week 1 loss to the Chargers.​


Playing behind a terrible offensive line that was shuffling in different bodies to try and find the right combo, Carr was under a ton of duress, taking five sacks, and fumbling twice, though the Raiders recovered both. Carr pretty much locked on to new WR1 Davante Adams all afternoon, targeting Adams on 17 of his 37 throws, good for an out-of-this-world 46% target share. Carr just forced too many throws and was under so much pressure. Carr will try to cut down on the mistakes in an easier Week 2 home date against the Cardinals.
- NBCSportsEDGE
Click to expand...
 

Derek Carr completed 26-of-44 passes for 303 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in the Raiders' 22-24, Week 3 loss to the Titans.​


Carr led a ferocious comeback attempt late in the fourth quarter, only to come up a two-point conversion short of sending the game into overtime. Carr struggled through most of the game, notably lacking clear cohesion with alpha wide receiver Davante Adams for the second consecutive week. His deepest completion came on a 4th-and-15, 60-yard completion to Mack Hollins on the Raiders' final drive of the game, otherwise peppering pass-catchers over the short areas of the field. McDaniels and his signal caller have strides to make before a Week 4 showdown with their division rivals, the Denver Broncos.
- NBCSportsEDGE
Click to expand...
 

Derek Carr completed 19-of-30 passes for 241 yards and two touchdowns in the Raiders' 30-29, Week 5 loss to the Chiefs Monday night.​

The Raiders jumped the Chiefs out of the gates in this one, putting up 17 straight points, thanks in large part to Carr finding Davante Adams for a 58-yard touchdown on a busted coverage. Carr later found Adams again from 48 yards out in the fourth quarter for their second long touchdown hookup. It pulled the Raiders within one point at 30-29 with 4:27 left, and coach Josh McDaniels opted to go for two points instead of the extra point to tie. Josh Jacobs was stuffed. The Raiders eventually got the ball back, but Carr was blitzed on 4th-and-1 and threw up an empty heave with 41 seconds to play, effectively ending the game. The Raiders are now 1-4 ahead of their bye. Carr will get 13 days to prepare for a Week 7 home date against the Texans where he'll be a higher-end QB2.
Oct 10, 2022, 11:25 PM ET
Click to expand...
 

Derek Carr completed 21-of-27 passes for 241 yards and one touchdown in the Raiders' 38-20, Week 7 win over the Texans.​


Interestingly, Carr has now thrown for 241 yards in back-to-back games. Sunday's win over the Texans marked his third-straight game without an interception, as the veteran quarterback gave way to Josh Jacobs on several occasions to keep the Raiders on pace. Carr's lone touchdown pass came in the second quarter when he found Mack Hollins up the middle for the contested 26-yard score to tie the game at 10-10 heading into halftime. Carr's second-half efficiency helped put the Raiders in position for two scoring drives in the third quarter, with Jacobs capping off both drives with rushing scores. Carr has thrown just one interception since his three-interception performance in Week 1, but the Raiders' recent string of rushing success will cap his fantasy upside. Carr is a mid-QB2 next week against the Saints.
- NBCSportsEDGE
Click to expand...
 
Derek Carr completed 21-of-36 passes for 259 yards and two touchdowns in the Raiders' 27-20, Week 9 loss to the Jaguars.

Carr was torching the Jaguars early, hooking up with Davante Adams for 25- and 38-yard touchdowns in the game's opening 20 minutes. The Raiders jumped out to a 17-0 lead, and Carr had over 200 yards passing at the half. Las Vegas ended up getting shut out in the second half after being shut out all of Week 8. Las Vegas is down bad, blowing this huge lead and tumbling to 2-6 on the year. Carr has just been bad much of the past five-plus weeks. He doesn't elevate those around him. Carr will be a low-floor, low-ceiling poor QB2 bet next week against the Colts.
- NBCSportsEDGE
Click to expand...
 

Derek Carr completed 24-of-38 passes for 248 yards and two touchdowns in the Raiders' 25-20, Week 10 loss to the Colts.​

This one wasn't Carr's "fault" as he supplied what has become his typical statline under Josh McDaniels, but he certainly didn't elevate the offense as the Raiders suffered a humiliating loss to a team breaking in a former high school coach on a short week and starting a quarterback on 60 minutes' notice. Carr has yet to throw for more than two scores in a game under McDaniels and has reached 300 yards only once, all the way back in Week 3. He has exceeded 250 yards one time since then. He did understand the assignment and lock onto Davante Adams for 9/126/1 this afternoon, but couldn't find him in the game's critical final few moments, including a fourth down attempt in the end zone. Carr is not the Raiders' problem. He also won't be enough of a solution down the stretch. Vegas has the similarly depressing Broncos in Week 11.
Nov 13, 2022, 7:15 PM ET
Click to expand...
 
Red flag the way Carr got emotional talking about the things players are doing (possibly/probably referring to himself as well as others) to manage injuries in order to get themselves on the field each week. Carr has had a lingering and unspecified back injury for weeks now, and looks as immobile as I've ever seen him - even though he was never all that mobile, especially after breaking his leg in 2016. He also had lower back fractures in 2017, which he came back from and played with after taking just a week off that year. Maybe he's dealing with something similar this season, but five years older and five years more beat up, physically and mentally.
 

ESPN's Dan Graziano believes the Raiders could release QB Derek Carr after the season.​

The Raiders signed Carr to a three-year extension in April. While it's unlikely the Raiders move on from Carr a year after he recruited WR Davante Adams to Vegas, Carr's deal has no guarantees left and releasing him would leave $5 million in dead money. The Raiders project for a top-five pick, giving them capital to draft Carr's replacement, and there are rumors of HC Josh McDaniels reuniting with ex-Patriots QB Tom Brady this offseason. The Raiders have until three days after the Super Bowl to make a decision on Carr. Carr has a $32.9 million base salary next year and would be owed a guaranteed $7.5 million in 2024 if he remains on the post-February roster.
SOURCE: ESPN
Nov 18, 2022, 8:05 PM ET
Click to expand...
 

Derek Carr completed 11-of-20 passes for 137 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions in the Raiders' 17-16, Week 14 loss to the Rams, adding 11 yards on four carries.​

Carr started the game with two long completions to Davante Adams which set up a Josh Jacobs rushing score on the opening possession. He would struggle for much of the remainder of the game as the Raiders managed only field goals the rest of the way. His biggest mistake came at the end of the first half when he threw an ill-advised red zone interception on a ball he tried to force over the middle of the field. The pick, which was one of the worst red zone interceptions you will see, ended up removing three points from the board for the Raiders, which ultimately proved costly in the one-point defeat. What's more, the gut-wrenching loss all but eliminated the Raiders from playoff contention after the team rattled off three straight wins to play themselves back into contention. Carr now gets 10 days to prepare for a difficult matchup with the Patriots in Week 15.
Dec 8, 2022, 11:58 PM ET
Click to expand...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

T
Travdogg's 3 round mock draft
2
Replies
84
Views
3K
travdogg
T
JohnnyU
Do you remember Roger Carr?
Replies
21
Views
1K
Uruk-Hai
Uruk-Hai
greenmountaingoat
Ainias Smith-WR- Eagles
Replies
10
Views
465
greenmountaingoat
greenmountaingoat

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 2 (members: 0, guests: 2)
Top