QB Jalen Hurts, PHI (4 Viewers)

[Ministry of Pain]

If you are paid as the top player in the NFL
Then obviously you must be the top player in the NFL, right?

 

[rockaction]

especially Cowboys fans

I think you're mistaking me for a Cowboys fan. I'm a Jets fan. I don't like the Cowboys any more than I like the Eagles. I grew up rooting for the Jets/Giants/Raiders, actually, and dropped the Raiders once I was old enough that the mystique no longer meant anything. Or maybe they just started stinking. Actually, no. I dropped them when I realized the whole mystique was loserville and that their fans were sort of losers. (Not this board, though. I like their fans here.)

I still feel an affinity towards both the Giants and the Raiders, but you gotta pick one, and my heart is with the Jets, though I have rooted vociferously and passionately for the Giants as recently as their last Super Bowl.

But yeah, Jets fan here.

 

[-OZ-]

Too early for Lawrence to crack the top-12?

An oversight, but it depends on what you're asking for. I was thinking one game and fully healthy with that list.

If you asked me for the year, I'd say I'd rather have Lawrence than Stafford, Murray, or Cousins. And I'd probably have to put Hurts there with Murray and Cousins if I wasn't so annoyed by Deamon and Eagles fans in general.

I'd say if you asked me to start a franchise or for two or more years, I'd go

1) Mahomes
2) Allen
3) Burrow
4) Herbert
5) Watson
6) Rodgers
7) Jackson
8) Lawrence
9) Prescott
10) Hurts
10) Cousins
10) Murray
13) Stafford

That's about how I see it right now. Murray and Stafford are real wild cards due to injury. Cousins is just immobile, something Hurts brings to the table.

If I'm dead honest, I think Hurts slips into the top ten but not higher than that.

This is interesting imo.
Mostly agreed, a few big disagreements.

1) Mahomes
2) Allen
3) Burrow
4) Herbert
- Probably the same as most would have

5) Lawrence
6) Hurts
7) Jackson
8) Fields
9) Dak
- I feel like there’s a Tier break here

10) Murray
11) Tua
12) Rodgers

 

[Terpman22]

How so?

Jealous of what? Congrats you're a fan of a team - what an accomplishment!!!

You just seem a bit thin skinned and need to run in every time some one makes even a slightly negative comment about an Eagle.

Look man I am open to honest open discussion, but when a guy comes in and basically goes "The guy that finished runner up MVP last year isn't on my top 10 list" yeah, I'm gonna defend my guys

Did you forget we are on a sports message board or something? I am open to debating using stats, etc to back up my side. Not just go "Ya know, well I said so and thats how it is" its lame.

 

[Terpman22]

especially Cowboys fans

I think you're mistaking me for a Cowboys fan. I'm a Jets fan. I don't like the Cowboys any more than I like the Eagles. I grew up rooting for the Jets/Giants/Raiders, actually, and dropped the Raiders once I was old enough that the mystique no longer meant anything. Or maybe they just started stinking. Actually, no. I dropped them when I realized the whole mystique was loserville and that their fans were sort of losers. (Not this board, though. I like their fans here.)

I still feel an affinity towards both the Giants and the Raiders, but you gotta pick one, and my heart is with the Jets, though I have rooted vociferously and passionately for the Giants as recently as their last Super Bowl.

But yeah, Jets fan here.

Ah. I did not know. You sure as heck argue like a Cowboys fan, to discredit any Eagles related success. Very cool of you to root for 10% of the NFL teams growing up I guess. I stuck to one.

 

[rockaction]

Very cool of you to root for 10% of the NFL teams growing up I guess

I was a kid. Kids do weird things. I grew up in CT so I didn't have a team. The choice had to be willed, and I chose the Jets.

Enough of an explanation?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Very cool of you to root for 10% of the NFL teams growing up I guess. I stuck to one.

is this your idea of open honest discussion?

 

[travdogg]

Its kinda funny, I feel like I'm just not as" jump to small sample size conclusions" as some others but I was seemingly leading the Hurts charge a while back, when people were saying he sucked in early 2021. I also am on record in 2020 saying GB should have taken Hurts over Love if they wanted a QB of the future.

Too early for Lawrence to crack the top-12?

An oversight, but it depends on what you're asking for. I was thinking one game and fully healthy with that list.

If you asked me for the year, I'd say I'd rather have Lawrence than Stafford, Murray, or Cousins. And I'd probably have to put Hurts there with Murray and Cousins if I wasn't so annoyed by Deamon and Eagles fans in general.

I'd say if you asked me to start a franchise or for two or more years, I'd go

1) Mahomes
2) Allen
3) Burrow
4) Herbert
5) Watson
6) Rodgers
7) Jackson
8) Lawrence
9) Prescott
10) Hurts
10) Cousins
10) Murray
13) Stafford

That's about how I see it right now. Murray and Stafford are real wild cards due to injury. Cousins is just immobile, something Hurts brings to the table.

If I'm dead honest, I think Hurts slips into the top ten but not higher than that.

This is interesting imo.
Mostly agreed, a few big disagreements.

1) Mahomes
2) Allen
3) Burrow
4) Herbert
- Probably the same as most would have

5) Lawrence
6) Hurts
7) Jackson
8) Fields
9) Dak
- I feel like there’s a Tier break here

10) Murray
11) Tua
12) Rodgers

Man, I hope you are right about Fields. He is on the Allen/Hurts path, and was arguably better than either in year 2, but he needs a lot to fall into place though.

 

[rockaction]

is this your idea of open honest discussion?

Yeah, that was a bit of a sideswipe into insult territory. I've avoided doing so in my posts responding to Terpman22, I think.

 

[rockaction]

But Eagles fans are gonna Eagle.

 

[-OZ-]

Very cool of you to root for 10% of the NFL teams growing up I guess

I was a kid. Kids do weird things. I grew up in CT so I didn't have a team. The choice had to be willed, and I chose the Jets.

Enough of an explanation?

I really don’t get the “issue” here. Some of us just enjoy the game and would cheer for the local team while we moved around.

Its kinda funny, I feel like I'm just not as" jump to small sample size conclusions" as some others but I was seemingly leading the Hurts charge a while back, when people were saying he sucked in early 2021. I also am on record in 2020 saying GB should have taken Hurts over Love if they wanted a QB of the future.

Too early for Lawrence to crack the top-12?

An oversight, but it depends on what you're asking for. I was thinking one game and fully healthy with that list.

If you asked me for the year, I'd say I'd rather have Lawrence than Stafford, Murray, or Cousins. And I'd probably have to put Hurts there with Murray and Cousins if I wasn't so annoyed by Deamon and Eagles fans in general.

I'd say if you asked me to start a franchise or for two or more years, I'd go

1) Mahomes
2) Allen
3) Burrow
4) Herbert
5) Watson
6) Rodgers
7) Jackson
8) Lawrence
9) Prescott
10) Hurts
10) Cousins
10) Murray
13) Stafford

That's about how I see it right now. Murray and Stafford are real wild cards due to injury. Cousins is just immobile, something Hurts brings to the table.

If I'm dead honest, I think Hurts slips into the top ten but not higher than that.

This is interesting imo.
Mostly agreed, a few big disagreements.

1) Mahomes
2) Allen
3) Burrow
4) Herbert
- Probably the same as most would have

5) Lawrence
6) Hurts
7) Jackson
8) Fields
9) Dak
- I feel like there’s a Tier break here

10) Murray
11) Tua
12) Rodgers

Man, I hope you are right about Fields. He is on the Allen/Hurts path, and was arguably better than either in year 2, but he needs a lot to fall into place though.

I actually like the guy - and I despise tOSU and have even cheered for the Lions at one point (still do when they’re not playing my titans but I guess that’s frowned upon)

 

[rockaction]

I'm deeply hurt now. I'd better consult my therapist (my therapist is my coffee).

 

[Terpman22]

Very cool of you to root for 10% of the NFL teams growing up I guess. I stuck to one.

is this your idea of open honest discussion?

I don't see anything untruthful I said. In the sports world dudes that have "multiple teams' to in some sort of way hedge their bets so they can have something to root for are usually frowned upon. If someone takes what i said as an insult when you statistically grew up admittedly rooting for 3/30 teams, thats not on me for pointing that fact out.

But anyway, way off topic and I'll admit that. Jalen Hurts is here to stay. Will be very good for a long time. If people want him to "prove it" as many times as they deem necessary to win them over. That's fine. I have Djax on ignore b/c of this b/c no matter what, it seems, he will never come around on Hurts. Despite all the facts/stats and success.

If you think a guy isn't "as good as you think" b/c he actually has a good team around him to support him, in what we all view the "ultimate team sport" I just disagree with the premise. If you start going down the road of discounting facts/stats to prove your point/premise, to me its an uphill battle/loser mentality rooted in Ok maybe not jealosy, but maybe its not understanding stats or the game I dunno. Stuff like "take away his rushing stats and he's average" it would be like saying "well take away Burrow's ability to read a difference and He's average' Going to preseason ranks more than 1 year back to prove a point is silly is all I was getting at. If you have a ranking that is like in the 10-15% of people as a minority, everyone is welcome to their own opinion, even as wrong as it may be.

I've said my piece for now on where I stand with Hurts, the deal that he signed and how I view the Eagles moving forward.

 

[rockaction]

In the sports world dudes that have "multiple teams' to in some sort of way hedge their bets so they can have something to root for are usually frowned upon.

Children that have no regional team are way, way different than dudes who cheer for more than one team. Hell, all children are different than dudes that cheer for more than one team.

You, sir, sound like you have an inability to make a nuanced distinction about many things, especially given your tone and tenor in this thread. I'll bid you good day like I did Deamon.

Stop biting ankles, Eagles fans. You'll do much better with your national rep.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

If someone takes what i said as an insult

 

[Cowboysfan8]

How so?

Jealous of what? Congrats you're a fan of a team - what an accomplishment!!!

You just seem a bit thin skinned and need to run in every time some one makes even a slightly negative comment about an Eagle.

Right lol?

Crazy

 

[Terpman22]

How so?

Jealous of what? Congrats you're a fan of a team - what an accomplishment!!!

You just seem a bit thin skinned and need to run in every time some one makes even a slightly negative comment about an Eagle.

Right lol?

Crazy

I will admit I am a bit crazy. No worries.

 

[Terpman22]

If someone takes what i said as an insult

I guess I could have just called him a loser like he did for the entire Eagles fanbase lol. Definitely not insulting at all. I thought it was me who had the thin skin, I'm not worried about insults honestly. It happens quite often on message boards, comes with the territory. But I personally am not down with taking it personal or calling someone a loser, I know I may be in a minority here.

 

[rockaction]

I thought it was me who had the thin skin, I'm not worried about insults honestly.

I sort of laughed it off, but you're serious about it and have shown an incapacity to think clearly or in a experientially nuanced way about basic stuff so far. I'm not thin-skinned at all.

But you indeed can have a good day. Time's a-wastin'.

 

[Terpman22]

I thought it was me who had the thin skin, I'm not worried about insults honestly.

I sort of laughed it off, but you're serious about it and have shown an incapacity to think clearly or in a experientially nuanced way about basic stuff so far. I'm not thin-skinned at all.

But you indeed can have a good day. Time's a-wastin'.

Have a good one dude. Took nothing personal I promise. I think we are both kind of disconnected with understanding each other's sort or side of reasoning. All good!

 

[rockaction]

Took nothing personal I promise

Nor here. I guess we just don't see eye-to-eye on the great Hurts debate. There's always next year for more data points, though!

 

[Terpman22]

Took nothing personal I promise

Nor here. I guess we just don't see eye-to-eye on the great Hurts debate. There's always next year for more data points, though!

Probably right. And you are right another year of data points should help solidify where he stands, especially since the Eagles "play the toughest schedule this year" which I always "hate" b/c the teams are not the same as they were last year, so its kind of a misnomer and we never get an in-season adjustment on things like that for instance if a starting QB goes down, or ya know, The Bucs are one of the first place teams we play this year, but I mean everyone is expecting them to not be as good as last year b/c duh Tom Brady retired.

 

[Cowboysfan8]

But Eagles fans are gonna Eagle.

TOUGHEST FANS IN THE LEAGUE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Insein]

LOL!!! Daniel Jones just became underpaid !!!

Marcus Mariota only got $3.5M and put up pretty much the same season lol.

LOL!!! Daniel Jones just became underpaid !!!

I'd very much argue the best QB in the division is still in Dallas.

Congrats to Hurts though, its a pretty impressive path from benched in the national title game to highest paid NFL player.

The dude is a psycho. Ask anyone that has played with him and they basically say "no one I have ever met works as hard as Jalen Hurts" All that hard work as paid off, literally and he has improved like every single year the past 5-6 years of his football life. Will be interesting to see how much he improves this year coming back to basically the same offense, sans Miles Sanders and an offensive guard.

He's always been like that ... he's just never been that good.
Statiscally he was ok on by far thhe most loaded roster in the NFL.
I luv this contract ... it's the best thing that couldve happened to the NFC East. No way the eagles maintain players in the comng years

Yeah, 101.6 passer rating, 22/6 TD/INT ratio, statistically, OK stuff. 13 rushing touchdowns, 700+ yards. First QB to get double digit rushing TDs in back to back years. Ok stuff for sure. Still hasn't hit his ceiling. Same offense is coming back with a "loaded" roster so it would be safe to expect at minimum, similar results, not taking into account how much he will improve this year.

Probably not a safe bet to expect improvement at all. Regression to the mean is real, and players better than Hurts have come down from career years.

I'd also argue the rushing TDs are a somewhat whatever meh stat NFL wise. Great for fantasy, but the "tush push" has been relatively fool-proof and isn't something I'd credit to Hurts that much. Again, not saying Hurts is bad or anything like that, just saying Philly may have paid for 2022 and that is very possibly a peak season.

That said, while I would agree that Hurts had BY FAR the most loaded roster in the NFL, to say he was ok is a pretty big understatement, he was a top-5 QB last year. We'll see if its sustainable.

I'd wonder what the over/under odds on him for 22 passing touchdowns and the same passing yards last year, going into year 3 of being the full starter in the same system with the same weapons. Without looking it up, I'm guessing Vegas has the "over" in both categories. While I get your point, regression and all, I personally don't think he's at his ceiling. His numbers were great, but there is a TON of room for improvement. I take your thoughts on the rushing stats as "sure OK" but there are half of those touchdowns where he basically did it himself, in the open field a la some of those runs in the Super Bowl. Usually QB's that improve in their first 2 years there is an expectation they will continue to improve. With that said, a guy like Herbert's numbers did go down last year, but I don't think anyone thinks he is at his ceiling either.

It's not the same system they have a New OC and they lost a starter on the Oline.
That said, 22 TDs while throwing to the weapons that he has and behind hands down the best Oline in the NFL is really nothing to write home about

New OC, same system. New OC has known him since he was in HS. Its not like we are paying him $3m per touchdown pass like the Giants are with Daniel Jones.

Jones threw more TDs (24) as a rookie then Hurts has ever thrown.
His top weapons that year ... a washed up and injured Goldan Tate, an injured Sterlin Shepard, 5th rd rookie Slayton and behind a terrible Oline.
Ohh ... And he did that in 12 Games
Imagine what he could do with AJ Brown, Davonta Smith and Dallas Goedert behind the best Oline in the NFL
I could assure you ... DJ would have thrown more than 22 TDs with that talent arround him.

Jalen Hurts:
2023: $6.15 million
2024: $13.56 million
2025: $21.77 million
2026: $31.77 million

Daniel Jones:
2023: $21.0 million
2024: $45.0 million
2025: $39.5 million
2026: $56.5 million

This just shows some GMs are better at their job than others.

 

[Insein]

Cool list. Now do us all a favor and find a list outside this board, by ya know, reputable people, writers etc that shows me Hurts is that low and also he is below Dak Prescott.

The Athletic had Hurts at 20th before the year. He jumped, but it's behind a paywall. You're telling me one year puts him in the top eight?

Bravo for reaching!

NFL Quarterback Tiers 2022: How 50 coaches and execs rank the league's best

Aaron Rodgers remains the NFL's best QB, according to coaches and team executives, while a new generation shows great promise.

theathletic.com

It did for Allen. It did for Lamar. It did for basically every QB that wasn't a stud their first or second year and then suddenly was.

 

[Dez]

I think he's gonna be a good pro, perhaps real good. He had an excellent combine and he could go as early as mid/late 2nd now with some buzz.

After Burrows and Tua who would you really take over him? Herbert with a top 10 pick vs Hurts at say 2.20? Love or Hurts 25 to 40 picks later?

I'm thinking Hurts comp can be where a slightly smaller version of Dak meets a larger Kyler Murray.

Don't think Hurts is getting much love and if drafted where he can develop for a year or two (NO?) he could end up being one of the better QBs in this class at a non 1st round price

Sure wish I read this and listened to you before I did all my rookie drafts that year.

 

[need2know]

great job by the Eagles and Hurts (all-female) team getting the deal done

you taking notes, Lamar?

Yeah I remember years ago hearing he had no agent thinking this cheap sob is gonna screw himself

 

[need2know]

especially Cowboys fans

I think you're mistaking me for a Cowboys fan. I'm a Jets fan. I don't like the Cowboys any more than I like the Eagles. I grew up rooting for the Jets/Giants/Raiders, actually, and dropped the Raiders once I was old enough that the mystique no longer meant anything. Or maybe they just started stinking. Actually, no. I dropped them when I realized the whole mystique was loserville and that their fans were sort of losers. (Not this board, though. I like their fans here.)

I still feel an affinity towards both the Giants and the Raiders, but you gotta pick one, and my heart is with the Jets, though I have rooted vociferously and passionately for the Giants as recently as their last Super Bowl.

But yeah, Jets fan here.

Man hurts was better last year than any Jets qb in the last 50 years. How bout them apples

 

[rockaction]

Man hurts was better last year than any Jets qb in the last 50 years. How bout them apples

See the sad thing about a guy like you is in about 50 years you’re gonna start doing some thinking on your own and you’re gonna come up with the fact that there are two certainties in life. One, don't do that.

 

[rockaction]

Two, wait till we get Rodgers. (If we get Rodgers.)

 

[RC94]

Eagles QB Hurts earns master's from Oklahoma

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts received his master's degree in human relations from Oklahoma on Friday.

www.espn.com

 

[JohnnyU]

Eagles QB Hurts earns master's from Oklahoma

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts received his master's degree in human relations from Oklahoma on Friday.

www.espn.com

Gifted man

 

[Ilov80s]

Eagles QB Hurts earns master's from Oklahoma

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts received his master's degree in human relations from Oklahoma on Friday.

www.espn.com

Gifted man

God blessed him that's for sure.

 

[massraider]

Stetson Bennett, despite being in college since 2017, has not graduated from UGA.

 

[Faust]

Eagles' Dallas Goedert: Jalen Hurts is top-two quarterback in NFL

 

[Deamon]

NFL Execs, Coaches, and Scouts rank Hurts at #6.

 

[Faust]

Jalen Hurts doesn't need to do much different in 2023 to win a Super Bowl

 

[fred_1_15301]

Perhaps the Eagles are valuing the quarterback position and their draft position correctly, unlike others. Considering they had Foles lead them to a Super Bowl and given Wentz's injury history, the move makes some sense. To wit: When the Jets had Sam Darnold go down last year, they had nobody even close to a suitable backup to him to play quarterback. They went 7-9, with Sam missing three games, all losses. With a competent backup and their schedule, they might have sniffed playoffs, though not likely. But they were done out of the gate with Sam missing and an 0-4 record.

Just...I'm not sure how you can overvalue the QB position in football other than those massive, cap-eating contracts that most competent ones sign off of their rookie deals. (A trend being corrected, it seems.)

If the eagles had a good backup last year they would have beaten the Seahawks. And yes wentz has been hurt 3 out of 4 years. Its totally the right move. I would much rather have an upside cheap qb like hurts than some other dart throw draft pick if you need a qb. Eagles fans are mad at where we picked hurts and say we could have gotten a backup qb later. Eason, fromm and everyone else is far behind hurts imo. Hes a great player, leader, person and has shown the ability to get better. Lead 2 high powered teams to great records. Who knows if wentz gets hurt again they may have found their next qb in round 2.

Just reading back through this thread and man this post was spot on! Nice job..

 

[need2know]

Perhaps the Eagles are valuing the quarterback position and their draft position correctly, unlike others. Considering they had Foles lead them to a Super Bowl and given Wentz's injury history, the move makes some sense. To wit: When the Jets had Sam Darnold go down last year, they had nobody even close to a suitable backup to him to play quarterback. They went 7-9, with Sam missing three games, all losses. With a competent backup and their schedule, they might have sniffed playoffs, though not likely. But they were done out of the gate with Sam missing and an 0-4 record.

Just...I'm not sure how you can overvalue the QB position in football other than those massive, cap-eating contracts that most competent ones sign off of their rookie deals. (A trend being corrected, it seems.)

If the eagles had a good backup last year they would have beaten the Seahawks. And yes wentz has been hurt 3 out of 4 years. Its totally the right move. I would much rather have an upside cheap qb like hurts than some other dart throw draft pick if you need a qb. Eagles fans are mad at where we picked hurts and say we could have gotten a backup qb later. Eason, fromm and everyone else is far behind hurts imo. Hes a great player, leader, person and has shown the ability to get better. Lead 2 high powered teams to great records. Who knows if wentz gets hurt again they may have found their next qb in round 2.

Just reading back through this thread and man this post was spot on! Nice job..

Always liked me some hurts

 

[rockaction]

Just reading back through this thread and man this post was spot on! Nice job..

Wasn't it, though?

I kid, I kid. I was praising the pick of Hurts, too.

 

[Faust]

Eagles QB Jalen Hurts not losing a shred of focus

 

[FFCollusion]

I've been giving it some thought, and I'm really starting to think, the top 3 QBs should be ordered differently. After assessing the 2022 season as a whole as a slightly down year for QBs, it helped me realize that perhaps the dominance that Hurts/Allen/Mahomes had over the field, wasn't because they were good, it's because everyone else was... worse.

On the surface those seem like the same thing, but when it comes to analyzing data, statistically, we're trying to assess what's most likely to happen next.

So, lets just start with the 3 top QBs and challenge the order of them simply with 2022 in mind. (Yahoo scoring for this part)
Mahomes averaged 24.8 points per game, threw 5,250 yards, 41 TDs and another 4TDs on the ground. So, 5,600 total yards and 45 total TDs. To average 24.8ppg.

Allen 5000 total yards, 42 total TDs, to average 25.3ppg.
Hurts 4400 total yards, 35 total TDs, to average 25.3ppg.

If we just look at those 3 stat lines, and I asked you who has the most room to grow, or the easiest path to duplicate their '22 season fantasy stats, who would you pick?

For me... even though I think Mahomes is very likely to repeat his season year over year, if we're being realistic, the chances of 5600/45 is not very high. But, obviously we've seen him have the 50TD season, so it's not out of the realm of possibility. But keep in mind, that even in Mahomes' 5300/52 TD season... he only averaged 26.7ppg. I'm not downplaying this at all, just illustrating that the 'upside' we know Mahomes has, doesn't translate to a notable jump in fantasy production. 1.9ppg is good, but we're talking about absolute ceilings here essentially.

Allen's 5,000/42 seems well within reason, with potential to grow with Gabe healthy, Cook fully integrated, and the addition of Kincaid.
To support that, take note that since Diggs has showed up, Allen over the past 3 years has averaged 24.9, 24.2, and 25.2. His rushing help's modulate his production from year to year, whereas Mahomes has a bit more fluctuation in his production due to being reliant on his passing TD total. Over the past 5 years, Mahomes has has an every other year dip, starting in 2018 it looks like so: 26.7, 20.7, 25.0, 21.8, 24.8. Because of this, I actually think Allen offers the safest floor for year over year production between these 2, and if you were predicting which one hasn't hit their ceiling yet, it seems like Allen is a better bet.

Hurts on the other hand, obviously has the shortest track record, making him the riskiest of these 3 in my opinion. But with that risk, you get the upside, and I actually think we started seeing it last year, and perhaps many didn't notice. Let's not forget that it was AJB's first season with Hurts after being traded, it was only D.Smith's 2nd year, and now they have swapped Sanders for Swift, a premier pass catching back.
Regardless, from his '22 stats totaling only 4400 yards and 35TDs, its interesting to think about what his ceiling could be, in the event he were able to approach the 40-45TD range. These figures are slightly skewed, because Hurts missed 2 games last year, full disclosure there, but I'm really just trying to think about this from the perspective of... if I'm investing a 3rd round pick in one of these guys, not only which one is most likely to repeat, but which one is the least likely to regress, and which one has the most room to grow, to potentially rival the 28.1ppg 2018 Lamar Jackson season. I'm not predicting 1200 rushing yards for Hurts, but if Hurts can hit that 43TD mark, suddenly a guy who was already the best QB in PPG for 2022, now jumps into a tier ahead of the other 2.

I mentioned this might have happened when we weren't noticing last year, because of Hurts' missed games, it doesn't show up as clearly when stat diving, but I want you to consider this, from week 10 to week 18, Jalen Hurts was averaging 26.5PPG, a full 2.5 more than Mahomes was over the 2nd half of the season, and this also includes the game where Hurts failed to break double digits against the Giants in week 18. Because both of these QBs went to the superbowl, our data pool gets even bigger. From week 10 through the SB, Mahomes averaged 23.0ppg. Basically, Mahomes was just a machine from the start of the season to the end of the season, there appear to be no flukes, fluctuations, waves, just consistent performance every single week. From week 10 through the SB, Hurts was averaging 26.3ppg. A full 3.3ppg advantage over Mahomes. Allen from week 10, to the DP, averaged 22.5ppg for what it's worth.

When I break down the games and see how Hurts seemed to steadily progress upward as the season went on, combined with his room for growth, his upside at the QB position (among this tier) is the most appealing to me. It's easy to create a narrative that it was the development of Smith, or the chemistry with AJB. It's also easy to point to a 3 game stretch from week 13-15 where Hurts put up 34, 30, 34, and perhaps it's just coincidence. 13 rushing TDs is unlikely to repeat, but as long as they come through the air, it won't be a massive loss, but if they go to a RB on the ground (Penny) then it could be detrimental, but you're still just chasing a 17 week pace of 40TD.

For what it's worth his week 10-SB pace would extrapolate to 341/523 3804/22 + 190/980/20. 4800 total yards, 42 total TDs, 447 fantasy points. I went back to 2010 and no QB has ever scored that many points before. Lamar Jackson only played 15 games in 2019 and scored 421. Mahomes was at 427 in 2018.

I was curious if maybe splitting games was personal bias, or skewing the data, so I just went back and took the average of his entire season out of curiosity.
Week 1 through the SuperBowl. 18 games. He averaged 20/30/237/1.38 + 11/50/1 25.4ppg
17 week long season would equate to: 342/515/4032/23 + 187/855/17 for 432 fantasy points. Eclipsing both Lamar and Mahomes as listed above, the highest season I can find in my data, which goes back to 2001.

I think I'm changing my 1st tier of QBs to Hurts, Allen, Mahomes. Unless I draft Kelce, then I'm probably stacking. As always, we rank in a vacuum, but we do not draft in one.

The bigger question is... if we acknowledge that the point gap from QB1,2,3 to the field was inflated last year, and likely not indicative of what we can expect this year, how much are we over valuing the top 3 QBs at the moment, or more importantly, which of the QB in the next tier, is most likely to close that gap, for a noticeable discount. My guess is Herbert and Lamar, these would be the 2 QBs I try to target the hardest this year. Unfortunately draft position tends to dictate strategy in my opinion, due to the nature of cliffs, tiers, and dead zones. If I'm in the early-mid section of the 3rd round, I'm probably not drafting the top 3 QBs unless the WR/RB gap really hits me. However if I'm in the back half of the 3rd/4th, it's probably an easy decision. The early part of the draft has a good chance to land Herbert/Lamar at the 4/5 wrap, but I do not think the same is true for the 5/6 wrap for the people at the back half of the draft. Because of that, if I'm in spots 1-6, I'm more inclined to gamble on Herbert/Lamar falling to me in the 4/5 wrap. But if I'm in spots 7-12, I'm probably just taking one of those elite 3, and not risking missing the next tier at the 5/6 wrap.

Just my .02 and outlook on the board... as of today.

Via GoHawks:
"Allen played half the season with a partially torn UCL. It impacted his ability to throw and even altered his mechanics to an extent. You bring up what Hurts did later in the season, but Allen suffered the injury in week 9. In week 1-8 he averaged 28.1 PPG. 447-point pace is a lot. Allen was on pace for 478 points before his injury. That's just absolutely bonkers. "

 

[Qammy]

I've been giving it some thought, and I'm really starting to think, the top 3 QBs should be ordered differently. After assessing the 2022 season as a whole as a slightly down year for QBs, it helped me realize that perhaps the dominance that Hurts/Allen/Mahomes had over the field, wasn't because they were good, it's because everyone else was... worse.

On the surface those seem like the same thing, but when it comes to analyzing data, statistically, we're trying to assess what's most likely to happen next.

So, lets just start with the 3 top QBs and challenge the order of them simply with 2022 in mind. (Yahoo scoring for this part)
Mahomes averaged 24.8 points per game, threw 5,250 yards, 41 TDs and another 4TDs on the ground. So, 5,600 total yards and 45 total TDs. To average 24.8ppg.

Allen 5000 total yards, 42 total TDs, to average 25.3ppg.
Hurts 4400 total yards, 35 total TDs, to average 25.3ppg.

If we just look at those 3 stat lines, and I asked you who has the most room to grow, or the easiest path to duplicate their '22 season fantasy stats, who would you pick?

For me... even though I think Mahomes is very likely to repeat his season year over year, if we're being realistic, the chances of 5600/45 is not very high. But, obviously we've seen him have the 50TD season, so it's not out of the realm of possibility. But keep in mind, that even in Mahomes' 5300/52 TD season... he only averaged 26.7ppg. I'm not downplaying this at all, just illustrating that the 'upside' we know Mahomes has, doesn't translate to a notable jump in fantasy production. 1.9ppg is good, but we're talking about absolute ceilings here essentially.

Allen's 5,000/42 seems well within reason, with potential to grow with Gabe healthy, Cook fully integrated, and the addition of Kincaid.
To support that, take note that since Diggs has showed up, Allen over the past 3 years has averaged 24.9, 24.2, and 25.2. His rushing help's modulate his production from year to year, whereas Mahomes has a bit more fluctuation in his production due to being reliant on his passing TD total. Over the past 5 years, Mahomes has has an every other year dip, starting in 2018 it looks like so: 26.7, 20.7, 25.0, 21.8, 24.8. Because of this, I actually think Allen offers the safest floor for year over year production between these 2, and if you were predicting which one hasn't hit their ceiling yet, it seems like Allen is a better bet.

Hurts on the other hand, obviously has the shortest track record, making him the riskiest of these 3 in my opinion. But with that risk, you get the upside, and I actually think we started seeing it last year, and perhaps many didn't notice. Let's not forget that it was AJB's first season with Hurts after being traded, it was only D.Smith's 2nd year, and now they have swapped Sanders for Swift, a premier pass catching back.
Regardless, from his '22 stats totaling only 4400 yards and 35TDs, its interesting to think about what his ceiling could be, in the event he were able to approach the 40-45TD range. These figures are slightly skewed, because Hurts missed 2 games last year, full disclosure there, but I'm really just trying to think about this from the perspective of... if I'm investing a 3rd round pick in one of these guys, not only which one is most likely to repeat, but which one is the least likely to regress, and which one has the most room to grow, to potentially rival the 28.1ppg 2018 Lamar Jackson season. I'm not predicting 1200 rushing yards for Hurts, but if Hurts can hit that 43TD mark, suddenly a guy who was already the best QB in PPG for 2022, now jumps into a tier ahead of the other 2.

I mentioned this might have happened when we weren't noticing last year, because of Hurts' missed games, it doesn't show up as clearly when stat diving, but I want you to consider this, from week 10 to week 18, Jalen Hurts was averaging 26.5PPG, a full 2.5 more than Mahomes was over the 2nd half of the season, and this also includes the game where Hurts failed to break double digits against the Giants in week 18. Because both of these QBs went to the superbowl, our data pool gets even bigger. From week 10 through the SB, Mahomes averaged 23.0ppg. Basically, Mahomes was just a machine from the start of the season to the end of the season, there appear to be no flukes, fluctuations, waves, just consistent performance every single week. From week 10 through the SB, Hurts was averaging 26.3ppg. A full 3.3ppg advantage over Mahomes. Allen from week 10, to the DP, averaged 22.5ppg for what it's worth.

When I break down the games and see how Hurts seemed to steadily progress upward as the season went on, combined with his room for growth, his upside at the QB position (among this tier) is the most appealing to me. It's easy to create a narrative that it was the development of Smith, or the chemistry with AJB. It's also easy to point to a 3 game stretch from week 13-15 where Hurts put up 34, 30, 34, and perhaps it's just coincidence. 13 rushing TDs is unlikely to repeat, but as long as they come through the air, it won't be a massive loss, but if they go to a RB on the ground (Penny) then it could be detrimental, but you're still just chasing a 17 week pace of 40TD.

For what it's worth his week 10-SB pace would extrapolate to 341/523 3804/22 + 190/980/20. 4800 total yards, 42 total TDs, 447 fantasy points. I went back to 2010 and no QB has ever scored that many points before. Lamar Jackson only played 15 games in 2019 and scored 421. Mahomes was at 427 in 2018.

I was curious if maybe splitting games was personal bias, or skewing the data, so I just went back and took the average of his entire season out of curiosity.
Week 1 through the SuperBowl. 18 games. He averaged 20/30/237/1.38 + 11/50/1 25.4ppg
17 week long season would equate to: 342/515/4032/23 + 187/855/17 for 432 fantasy points. Eclipsing both Lamar and Mahomes as listed above, the highest season I can find in my data, which goes back to 2001.

I think I'm changing my 1st tier of QBs to Hurts, Allen, Mahomes. Unless I draft Kelce, then I'm probably stacking. As always, we rank in a vacuum, but we do not draft in one.

The bigger question is... if we acknowledge that the point gap from QB1,2,3 to the field was inflated last year, and likely not indicative of what we can expect this year, how much are we over valuing the top 3 QBs at the moment, or more importantly, which of the QB in the next tier, is most likely to close that gap, for a noticeable discount. My guess is Herbert and Lamar, these would be the 2 QBs I try to target the hardest this year. Unfortunately draft position tends to dictate strategy in my opinion, due to the nature of cliffs, tiers, and dead zones. If I'm in the early-mid section of the 3rd round, I'm probably not drafting the top 3 QBs unless the WR/RB gap really hits me. However if I'm in the back half of the 3rd/4th, it's probably an easy decision. The early part of the draft has a good chance to land Herbert/Lamar at the 4/5 wrap, but I do not think the same is true for the 5/6 wrap for the people at the back half of the draft. Because of that, if I'm in spots 1-6, I'm more inclined to gamble on Herbert/Lamar falling to me in the 4/5 wrap. But if I'm in spots 7-12, I'm probably just taking one of those elite 3, and not risking missing the next tier at the 5/6 wrap.

Just my .02 and outlook on the board... as of today.

Via GoHawks:
"Allen played half the season with a partially torn UCL. It impacted his ability to throw and even altered his mechanics to an extent. You bring up what Hurts did later in the season, but Allen suffered the injury in week 9. In week 1-8 he averaged 28.1 PPG. 447-point pace is a lot. Allen was on pace for 478 points before his injury. That's just absolutely bonkers. "

LOL !!! Hurts was dominant ??? and Now he's in the Mahomes / Allen converstaion ??? WTF is going on here??
He was 10th in passing Yds and 14th in passing TDs ... WITH THE BEST ROSTER IN THE NFL!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[eighsse2]

I've been giving it some thought, and I'm really starting to think, the top 3 QBs should be ordered differently. After assessing the 2022 season as a whole as a slightly down year for QBs, it helped me realize that perhaps the dominance that Hurts/Allen/Mahomes had over the field, wasn't because they were good, it's because everyone else was... worse.

On the surface those seem like the same thing, but when it comes to analyzing data, statistically, we're trying to assess what's most likely to happen next.

So, lets just start with the 3 top QBs and challenge the order of them simply with 2022 in mind. (Yahoo scoring for this part)
Mahomes averaged 24.8 points per game, threw 5,250 yards, 41 TDs and another 4TDs on the ground. So, 5,600 total yards and 45 total TDs. To average 24.8ppg.

Allen 5000 total yards, 42 total TDs, to average 25.3ppg.
Hurts 4400 total yards, 35 total TDs, to average 25.3ppg.

If we just look at those 3 stat lines, and I asked you who has the most room to grow, or the easiest path to duplicate their '22 season fantasy stats, who would you pick?

For me... even though I think Mahomes is very likely to repeat his season year over year, if we're being realistic, the chances of 5600/45 is not very high. But, obviously we've seen him have the 50TD season, so it's not out of the realm of possibility. But keep in mind, that even in Mahomes' 5300/52 TD season... he only averaged 26.7ppg. I'm not downplaying this at all, just illustrating that the 'upside' we know Mahomes has, doesn't translate to a notable jump in fantasy production. 1.9ppg is good, but we're talking about absolute ceilings here essentially.

Allen's 5,000/42 seems well within reason, with potential to grow with Gabe healthy, Cook fully integrated, and the addition of Kincaid.
To support that, take note that since Diggs has showed up, Allen over the past 3 years has averaged 24.9, 24.2, and 25.2. His rushing help's modulate his production from year to year, whereas Mahomes has a bit more fluctuation in his production due to being reliant on his passing TD total. Over the past 5 years, Mahomes has has an every other year dip, starting in 2018 it looks like so: 26.7, 20.7, 25.0, 21.8, 24.8. Because of this, I actually think Allen offers the safest floor for year over year production between these 2, and if you were predicting which one hasn't hit their ceiling yet, it seems like Allen is a better bet.

Hurts on the other hand, obviously has the shortest track record, making him the riskiest of these 3 in my opinion. But with that risk, you get the upside, and I actually think we started seeing it last year, and perhaps many didn't notice. Let's not forget that it was AJB's first season with Hurts after being traded, it was only D.Smith's 2nd year, and now they have swapped Sanders for Swift, a premier pass catching back.
Regardless, from his '22 stats totaling only 4400 yards and 35TDs, its interesting to think about what his ceiling could be, in the event he were able to approach the 40-45TD range. These figures are slightly skewed, because Hurts missed 2 games last year, full disclosure there, but I'm really just trying to think about this from the perspective of... if I'm investing a 3rd round pick in one of these guys, not only which one is most likely to repeat, but which one is the least likely to regress, and which one has the most room to grow, to potentially rival the 28.1ppg 2018 Lamar Jackson season. I'm not predicting 1200 rushing yards for Hurts, but if Hurts can hit that 43TD mark, suddenly a guy who was already the best QB in PPG for 2022, now jumps into a tier ahead of the other 2.

I mentioned this might have happened when we weren't noticing last year, because of Hurts' missed games, it doesn't show up as clearly when stat diving, but I want you to consider this, from week 10 to week 18, Jalen Hurts was averaging 26.5PPG, a full 2.5 more than Mahomes was over the 2nd half of the season, and this also includes the game where Hurts failed to break double digits against the Giants in week 18. Because both of these QBs went to the superbowl, our data pool gets even bigger. From week 10 through the SB, Mahomes averaged 23.0ppg. Basically, Mahomes was just a machine from the start of the season to the end of the season, there appear to be no flukes, fluctuations, waves, just consistent performance every single week. From week 10 through the SB, Hurts was averaging 26.3ppg. A full 3.3ppg advantage over Mahomes. Allen from week 10, to the DP, averaged 22.5ppg for what it's worth.

When I break down the games and see how Hurts seemed to steadily progress upward as the season went on, combined with his room for growth, his upside at the QB position (among this tier) is the most appealing to me. It's easy to create a narrative that it was the development of Smith, or the chemistry with AJB. It's also easy to point to a 3 game stretch from week 13-15 where Hurts put up 34, 30, 34, and perhaps it's just coincidence. 13 rushing TDs is unlikely to repeat, but as long as they come through the air, it won't be a massive loss, but if they go to a RB on the ground (Penny) then it could be detrimental, but you're still just chasing a 17 week pace of 40TD.

For what it's worth his week 10-SB pace would extrapolate to 341/523 3804/22 + 190/980/20. 4800 total yards, 42 total TDs, 447 fantasy points. I went back to 2010 and no QB has ever scored that many points before. Lamar Jackson only played 15 games in 2019 and scored 421. Mahomes was at 427 in 2018.

I was curious if maybe splitting games was personal bias, or skewing the data, so I just went back and took the average of his entire season out of curiosity.
Week 1 through the SuperBowl. 18 games. He averaged 20/30/237/1.38 + 11/50/1 25.4ppg
17 week long season would equate to: 342/515/4032/23 + 187/855/17 for 432 fantasy points. Eclipsing both Lamar and Mahomes as listed above, the highest season I can find in my data, which goes back to 2001.

I think I'm changing my 1st tier of QBs to Hurts, Allen, Mahomes. Unless I draft Kelce, then I'm probably stacking. As always, we rank in a vacuum, but we do not draft in one.

The bigger question is... if we acknowledge that the point gap from QB1,2,3 to the field was inflated last year, and likely not indicative of what we can expect this year, how much are we over valuing the top 3 QBs at the moment, or more importantly, which of the QB in the next tier, is most likely to close that gap, for a noticeable discount. My guess is Herbert and Lamar, these would be the 2 QBs I try to target the hardest this year. Unfortunately draft position tends to dictate strategy in my opinion, due to the nature of cliffs, tiers, and dead zones. If I'm in the early-mid section of the 3rd round, I'm probably not drafting the top 3 QBs unless the WR/RB gap really hits me. However if I'm in the back half of the 3rd/4th, it's probably an easy decision. The early part of the draft has a good chance to land Herbert/Lamar at the 4/5 wrap, but I do not think the same is true for the 5/6 wrap for the people at the back half of the draft. Because of that, if I'm in spots 1-6, I'm more inclined to gamble on Herbert/Lamar falling to me in the 4/5 wrap. But if I'm in spots 7-12, I'm probably just taking one of those elite 3, and not risking missing the next tier at the 5/6 wrap.

Just my .02 and outlook on the board... as of today.

Via GoHawks:
"Allen played half the season with a partially torn UCL. It impacted his ability to throw and even altered his mechanics to an extent. You bring up what Hurts did later in the season, but Allen suffered the injury in week 9. In week 1-8 he averaged 28.1 PPG. 447-point pace is a lot. Allen was on pace for 478 points before his injury. That's just absolutely bonkers. "

LOL !!! Hurts was dominant ??? and Now he's in the Mahomes / Allen converstaion ??? WTF is going on here??
He was 10th in passing Yds and 14th in passing TDs ... WITH THE BEST ROSTER IN THE NFL!!!!!!!!!!!!

psst ... I think he's talking about fantasy football scoring. Hurts puts up big rushing numbers to supplement his passing numbers.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I've been giving it some thought, and I'm really starting to think, the top 3 QBs should be ordered differently. After assessing the 2022 season as a whole as a slightly down year for QBs, it helped me realize that perhaps the dominance that Hurts/Allen/Mahomes had over the field, wasn't because they were good, it's because everyone else was... worse.

On the surface those seem like the same thing, but when it comes to analyzing data, statistically, we're trying to assess what's most likely to happen next.

So, lets just start with the 3 top QBs and challenge the order of them simply with 2022 in mind. (Yahoo scoring for this part)
Mahomes averaged 24.8 points per game, threw 5,250 yards, 41 TDs and another 4TDs on the ground. So, 5,600 total yards and 45 total TDs. To average 24.8ppg.

Allen 5000 total yards, 42 total TDs, to average 25.3ppg.
Hurts 4400 total yards, 35 total TDs, to average 25.3ppg.

If we just look at those 3 stat lines, and I asked you who has the most room to grow, or the easiest path to duplicate their '22 season fantasy stats, who would you pick?

For me... even though I think Mahomes is very likely to repeat his season year over year, if we're being realistic, the chances of 5600/45 is not very high. But, obviously we've seen him have the 50TD season, so it's not out of the realm of possibility. But keep in mind, that even in Mahomes' 5300/52 TD season... he only averaged 26.7ppg. I'm not downplaying this at all, just illustrating that the 'upside' we know Mahomes has, doesn't translate to a notable jump in fantasy production. 1.9ppg is good, but we're talking about absolute ceilings here essentially.

Allen's 5,000/42 seems well within reason, with potential to grow with Gabe healthy, Cook fully integrated, and the addition of Kincaid.
To support that, take note that since Diggs has showed up, Allen over the past 3 years has averaged 24.9, 24.2, and 25.2. His rushing help's modulate his production from year to year, whereas Mahomes has a bit more fluctuation in his production due to being reliant on his passing TD total. Over the past 5 years, Mahomes has has an every other year dip, starting in 2018 it looks like so: 26.7, 20.7, 25.0, 21.8, 24.8. Because of this, I actually think Allen offers the safest floor for year over year production between these 2, and if you were predicting which one hasn't hit their ceiling yet, it seems like Allen is a better bet.

Hurts on the other hand, obviously has the shortest track record, making him the riskiest of these 3 in my opinion. But with that risk, you get the upside, and I actually think we started seeing it last year, and perhaps many didn't notice. Let's not forget that it was AJB's first season with Hurts after being traded, it was only D.Smith's 2nd year, and now they have swapped Sanders for Swift, a premier pass catching back.
Regardless, from his '22 stats totaling only 4400 yards and 35TDs, its interesting to think about what his ceiling could be, in the event he were able to approach the 40-45TD range. These figures are slightly skewed, because Hurts missed 2 games last year, full disclosure there, but I'm really just trying to think about this from the perspective of... if I'm investing a 3rd round pick in one of these guys, not only which one is most likely to repeat, but which one is the least likely to regress, and which one has the most room to grow, to potentially rival the 28.1ppg 2018 Lamar Jackson season. I'm not predicting 1200 rushing yards for Hurts, but if Hurts can hit that 43TD mark, suddenly a guy who was already the best QB in PPG for 2022, now jumps into a tier ahead of the other 2.

I mentioned this might have happened when we weren't noticing last year, because of Hurts' missed games, it doesn't show up as clearly when stat diving, but I want you to consider this, from week 10 to week 18, Jalen Hurts was averaging 26.5PPG, a full 2.5 more than Mahomes was over the 2nd half of the season, and this also includes the game where Hurts failed to break double digits against the Giants in week 18. Because both of these QBs went to the superbowl, our data pool gets even bigger. From week 10 through the SB, Mahomes averaged 23.0ppg. Basically, Mahomes was just a machine from the start of the season to the end of the season, there appear to be no flukes, fluctuations, waves, just consistent performance every single week. From week 10 through the SB, Hurts was averaging 26.3ppg. A full 3.3ppg advantage over Mahomes. Allen from week 10, to the DP, averaged 22.5ppg for what it's worth.

When I break down the games and see how Hurts seemed to steadily progress upward as the season went on, combined with his room for growth, his upside at the QB position (among this tier) is the most appealing to me. It's easy to create a narrative that it was the development of Smith, or the chemistry with AJB. It's also easy to point to a 3 game stretch from week 13-15 where Hurts put up 34, 30, 34, and perhaps it's just coincidence. 13 rushing TDs is unlikely to repeat, but as long as they come through the air, it won't be a massive loss, but if they go to a RB on the ground (Penny) then it could be detrimental, but you're still just chasing a 17 week pace of 40TD.

For what it's worth his week 10-SB pace would extrapolate to 341/523 3804/22 + 190/980/20. 4800 total yards, 42 total TDs, 447 fantasy points. I went back to 2010 and no QB has ever scored that many points before. Lamar Jackson only played 15 games in 2019 and scored 421. Mahomes was at 427 in 2018.

I was curious if maybe splitting games was personal bias, or skewing the data, so I just went back and took the average of his entire season out of curiosity.
Week 1 through the SuperBowl. 18 games. He averaged 20/30/237/1.38 + 11/50/1 25.4ppg
17 week long season would equate to: 342/515/4032/23 + 187/855/17 for 432 fantasy points. Eclipsing both Lamar and Mahomes as listed above, the highest season I can find in my data, which goes back to 2001.

I think I'm changing my 1st tier of QBs to Hurts, Allen, Mahomes. Unless I draft Kelce, then I'm probably stacking. As always, we rank in a vacuum, but we do not draft in one.

The bigger question is... if we acknowledge that the point gap from QB1,2,3 to the field was inflated last year, and likely not indicative of what we can expect this year, how much are we over valuing the top 3 QBs at the moment, or more importantly, which of the QB in the next tier, is most likely to close that gap, for a noticeable discount. My guess is Herbert and Lamar, these would be the 2 QBs I try to target the hardest this year. Unfortunately draft position tends to dictate strategy in my opinion, due to the nature of cliffs, tiers, and dead zones. If I'm in the early-mid section of the 3rd round, I'm probably not drafting the top 3 QBs unless the WR/RB gap really hits me. However if I'm in the back half of the 3rd/4th, it's probably an easy decision. The early part of the draft has a good chance to land Herbert/Lamar at the 4/5 wrap, but I do not think the same is true for the 5/6 wrap for the people at the back half of the draft. Because of that, if I'm in spots 1-6, I'm more inclined to gamble on Herbert/Lamar falling to me in the 4/5 wrap. But if I'm in spots 7-12, I'm probably just taking one of those elite 3, and not risking missing the next tier at the 5/6 wrap.

Just my .02 and outlook on the board... as of today.

Via GoHawks:
"Allen played half the season with a partially torn UCL. It impacted his ability to throw and even altered his mechanics to an extent. You bring up what Hurts did later in the season, but Allen suffered the injury in week 9. In week 1-8 he averaged 28.1 PPG. 447-point pace is a lot. Allen was on pace for 478 points before his injury. That's just absolutely bonkers. "

LOL !!! Hurts was dominant ??? and Now he's in the Mahomes / Allen converstaion ??? WTF is going on here??
He was 10th in passing Yds and 14th in passing TDs ... WITH THE BEST ROSTER IN THE NFL!!!!!!!!!!!!

I think we can’t just ignore the rushing yards.

 

[need2know]

I've been giving it some thought, and I'm really starting to think, the top 3 QBs should be ordered differently. After assessing the 2022 season as a whole as a slightly down year for QBs, it helped me realize that perhaps the dominance that Hurts/Allen/Mahomes had over the field, wasn't because they were good, it's because everyone else was... worse.

On the surface those seem like the same thing, but when it comes to analyzing data, statistically, we're trying to assess what's most likely to happen next.

So, lets just start with the 3 top QBs and challenge the order of them simply with 2022 in mind. (Yahoo scoring for this part)
Mahomes averaged 24.8 points per game, threw 5,250 yards, 41 TDs and another 4TDs on the ground. So, 5,600 total yards and 45 total TDs. To average 24.8ppg.

Allen 5000 total yards, 42 total TDs, to average 25.3ppg.
Hurts 4400 total yards, 35 total TDs, to average 25.3ppg.

If we just look at those 3 stat lines, and I asked you who has the most room to grow, or the easiest path to duplicate their '22 season fantasy stats, who would you pick?

For me... even though I think Mahomes is very likely to repeat his season year over year, if we're being realistic, the chances of 5600/45 is not very high. But, obviously we've seen him have the 50TD season, so it's not out of the realm of possibility. But keep in mind, that even in Mahomes' 5300/52 TD season... he only averaged 26.7ppg. I'm not downplaying this at all, just illustrating that the 'upside' we know Mahomes has, doesn't translate to a notable jump in fantasy production. 1.9ppg is good, but we're talking about absolute ceilings here essentially.

Allen's 5,000/42 seems well within reason, with potential to grow with Gabe healthy, Cook fully integrated, and the addition of Kincaid.
To support that, take note that since Diggs has showed up, Allen over the past 3 years has averaged 24.9, 24.2, and 25.2. His rushing help's modulate his production from year to year, whereas Mahomes has a bit more fluctuation in his production due to being reliant on his passing TD total. Over the past 5 years, Mahomes has has an every other year dip, starting in 2018 it looks like so: 26.7, 20.7, 25.0, 21.8, 24.8. Because of this, I actually think Allen offers the safest floor for year over year production between these 2, and if you were predicting which one hasn't hit their ceiling yet, it seems like Allen is a better bet.

Hurts on the other hand, obviously has the shortest track record, making him the riskiest of these 3 in my opinion. But with that risk, you get the upside, and I actually think we started seeing it last year, and perhaps many didn't notice. Let's not forget that it was AJB's first season with Hurts after being traded, it was only D.Smith's 2nd year, and now they have swapped Sanders for Swift, a premier pass catching back.
Regardless, from his '22 stats totaling only 4400 yards and 35TDs, its interesting to think about what his ceiling could be, in the event he were able to approach the 40-45TD range. These figures are slightly skewed, because Hurts missed 2 games last year, full disclosure there, but I'm really just trying to think about this from the perspective of... if I'm investing a 3rd round pick in one of these guys, not only which one is most likely to repeat, but which one is the least likely to regress, and which one has the most room to grow, to potentially rival the 28.1ppg 2018 Lamar Jackson season. I'm not predicting 1200 rushing yards for Hurts, but if Hurts can hit that 43TD mark, suddenly a guy who was already the best QB in PPG for 2022, now jumps into a tier ahead of the other 2.

I mentioned this might have happened when we weren't noticing last year, because of Hurts' missed games, it doesn't show up as clearly when stat diving, but I want you to consider this, from week 10 to week 18, Jalen Hurts was averaging 26.5PPG, a full 2.5 more than Mahomes was over the 2nd half of the season, and this also includes the game where Hurts failed to break double digits against the Giants in week 18. Because both of these QBs went to the superbowl, our data pool gets even bigger. From week 10 through the SB, Mahomes averaged 23.0ppg. Basically, Mahomes was just a machine from the start of the season to the end of the season, there appear to be no flukes, fluctuations, waves, just consistent performance every single week. From week 10 through the SB, Hurts was averaging 26.3ppg. A full 3.3ppg advantage over Mahomes. Allen from week 10, to the DP, averaged 22.5ppg for what it's worth.

When I break down the games and see how Hurts seemed to steadily progress upward as the season went on, combined with his room for growth, his upside at the QB position (among this tier) is the most appealing to me. It's easy to create a narrative that it was the development of Smith, or the chemistry with AJB. It's also easy to point to a 3 game stretch from week 13-15 where Hurts put up 34, 30, 34, and perhaps it's just coincidence. 13 rushing TDs is unlikely to repeat, but as long as they come through the air, it won't be a massive loss, but if they go to a RB on the ground (Penny) then it could be detrimental, but you're still just chasing a 17 week pace of 40TD.

For what it's worth his week 10-SB pace would extrapolate to 341/523 3804/22 + 190/980/20. 4800 total yards, 42 total TDs, 447 fantasy points. I went back to 2010 and no QB has ever scored that many points before. Lamar Jackson only played 15 games in 2019 and scored 421. Mahomes was at 427 in 2018.

I was curious if maybe splitting games was personal bias, or skewing the data, so I just went back and took the average of his entire season out of curiosity.
Week 1 through the SuperBowl. 18 games. He averaged 20/30/237/1.38 + 11/50/1 25.4ppg
17 week long season would equate to: 342/515/4032/23 + 187/855/17 for 432 fantasy points. Eclipsing both Lamar and Mahomes as listed above, the highest season I can find in my data, which goes back to 2001.

I think I'm changing my 1st tier of QBs to Hurts, Allen, Mahomes. Unless I draft Kelce, then I'm probably stacking. As always, we rank in a vacuum, but we do not draft in one.

The bigger question is... if we acknowledge that the point gap from QB1,2,3 to the field was inflated last year, and likely not indicative of what we can expect this year, how much are we over valuing the top 3 QBs at the moment, or more importantly, which of the QB in the next tier, is most likely to close that gap, for a noticeable discount. My guess is Herbert and Lamar, these would be the 2 QBs I try to target the hardest this year. Unfortunately draft position tends to dictate strategy in my opinion, due to the nature of cliffs, tiers, and dead zones. If I'm in the early-mid section of the 3rd round, I'm probably not drafting the top 3 QBs unless the WR/RB gap really hits me. However if I'm in the back half of the 3rd/4th, it's probably an easy decision. The early part of the draft has a good chance to land Herbert/Lamar at the 4/5 wrap, but I do not think the same is true for the 5/6 wrap for the people at the back half of the draft. Because of that, if I'm in spots 1-6, I'm more inclined to gamble on Herbert/Lamar falling to me in the 4/5 wrap. But if I'm in spots 7-12, I'm probably just taking one of those elite 3, and not risking missing the next tier at the 5/6 wrap.

Just my .02 and outlook on the board... as of today.

Via GoHawks:
"Allen played half the season with a partially torn UCL. It impacted his ability to throw and even altered his mechanics to an extent. You bring up what Hurts did later in the season, but Allen suffered the injury in week 9. In week 1-8 he averaged 28.1 PPG. 447-point pace is a lot. Allen was on pace for 478 points before his injury. That's just absolutely bonkers. "

LOL !!! Hurts was dominant ??? and Now he's in the Mahomes / Allen converstaion ??? WTF is going on here??
He was 10th in passing Yds and 14th in passing TDs ... WITH THE BEST ROSTER IN THE NFL!!!!!!!!!!!!

He was the best fantasy qb all season long

 

[Ilov80s]

I've been giving it some thought, and I'm really starting to think, the top 3 QBs should be ordered differently. After assessing the 2022 season as a whole as a slightly down year for QBs, it helped me realize that perhaps the dominance that Hurts/Allen/Mahomes had over the field, wasn't because they were good, it's because everyone else was... worse.

On the surface those seem like the same thing, but when it comes to analyzing data, statistically, we're trying to assess what's most likely to happen next.

So, lets just start with the 3 top QBs and challenge the order of them simply with 2022 in mind. (Yahoo scoring for this part)
Mahomes averaged 24.8 points per game, threw 5,250 yards, 41 TDs and another 4TDs on the ground. So, 5,600 total yards and 45 total TDs. To average 24.8ppg.

Allen 5000 total yards, 42 total TDs, to average 25.3ppg.
Hurts 4400 total yards, 35 total TDs, to average 25.3ppg.

If we just look at those 3 stat lines, and I asked you who has the most room to grow, or the easiest path to duplicate their '22 season fantasy stats, who would you pick?

For me... even though I think Mahomes is very likely to repeat his season year over year, if we're being realistic, the chances of 5600/45 is not very high. But, obviously we've seen him have the 50TD season, so it's not out of the realm of possibility. But keep in mind, that even in Mahomes' 5300/52 TD season... he only averaged 26.7ppg. I'm not downplaying this at all, just illustrating that the 'upside' we know Mahomes has, doesn't translate to a notable jump in fantasy production. 1.9ppg is good, but we're talking about absolute ceilings here essentially.

Allen's 5,000/42 seems well within reason, with potential to grow with Gabe healthy, Cook fully integrated, and the addition of Kincaid.
To support that, take note that since Diggs has showed up, Allen over the past 3 years has averaged 24.9, 24.2, and 25.2. His rushing help's modulate his production from year to year, whereas Mahomes has a bit more fluctuation in his production due to being reliant on his passing TD total. Over the past 5 years, Mahomes has has an every other year dip, starting in 2018 it looks like so: 26.7, 20.7, 25.0, 21.8, 24.8. Because of this, I actually think Allen offers the safest floor for year over year production between these 2, and if you were predicting which one hasn't hit their ceiling yet, it seems like Allen is a better bet.

Hurts on the other hand, obviously has the shortest track record, making him the riskiest of these 3 in my opinion. But with that risk, you get the upside, and I actually think we started seeing it last year, and perhaps many didn't notice. Let's not forget that it was AJB's first season with Hurts after being traded, it was only D.Smith's 2nd year, and now they have swapped Sanders for Swift, a premier pass catching back.
Regardless, from his '22 stats totaling only 4400 yards and 35TDs, its interesting to think about what his ceiling could be, in the event he were able to approach the 40-45TD range. These figures are slightly skewed, because Hurts missed 2 games last year, full disclosure there, but I'm really just trying to think about this from the perspective of... if I'm investing a 3rd round pick in one of these guys, not only which one is most likely to repeat, but which one is the least likely to regress, and which one has the most room to grow, to potentially rival the 28.1ppg 2018 Lamar Jackson season. I'm not predicting 1200 rushing yards for Hurts, but if Hurts can hit that 43TD mark, suddenly a guy who was already the best QB in PPG for 2022, now jumps into a tier ahead of the other 2.

I mentioned this might have happened when we weren't noticing last year, because of Hurts' missed games, it doesn't show up as clearly when stat diving, but I want you to consider this, from week 10 to week 18, Jalen Hurts was averaging 26.5PPG, a full 2.5 more than Mahomes was over the 2nd half of the season, and this also includes the game where Hurts failed to break double digits against the Giants in week 18. Because both of these QBs went to the superbowl, our data pool gets even bigger. From week 10 through the SB, Mahomes averaged 23.0ppg. Basically, Mahomes was just a machine from the start of the season to the end of the season, there appear to be no flukes, fluctuations, waves, just consistent performance every single week. From week 10 through the SB, Hurts was averaging 26.3ppg. A full 3.3ppg advantage over Mahomes. Allen from week 10, to the DP, averaged 22.5ppg for what it's worth.

When I break down the games and see how Hurts seemed to steadily progress upward as the season went on, combined with his room for growth, his upside at the QB position (among this tier) is the most appealing to me. It's easy to create a narrative that it was the development of Smith, or the chemistry with AJB. It's also easy to point to a 3 game stretch from week 13-15 where Hurts put up 34, 30, 34, and perhaps it's just coincidence. 13 rushing TDs is unlikely to repeat, but as long as they come through the air, it won't be a massive loss, but if they go to a RB on the ground (Penny) then it could be detrimental, but you're still just chasing a 17 week pace of 40TD.

For what it's worth his week 10-SB pace would extrapolate to 341/523 3804/22 + 190/980/20. 4800 total yards, 42 total TDs, 447 fantasy points. I went back to 2010 and no QB has ever scored that many points before. Lamar Jackson only played 15 games in 2019 and scored 421. Mahomes was at 427 in 2018.

I was curious if maybe splitting games was personal bias, or skewing the data, so I just went back and took the average of his entire season out of curiosity.
Week 1 through the SuperBowl. 18 games. He averaged 20/30/237/1.38 + 11/50/1 25.4ppg
17 week long season would equate to: 342/515/4032/23 + 187/855/17 for 432 fantasy points. Eclipsing both Lamar and Mahomes as listed above, the highest season I can find in my data, which goes back to 2001.

I think I'm changing my 1st tier of QBs to Hurts, Allen, Mahomes. Unless I draft Kelce, then I'm probably stacking. As always, we rank in a vacuum, but we do not draft in one.

The bigger question is... if we acknowledge that the point gap from QB1,2,3 to the field was inflated last year, and likely not indicative of what we can expect this year, how much are we over valuing the top 3 QBs at the moment, or more importantly, which of the QB in the next tier, is most likely to close that gap, for a noticeable discount. My guess is Herbert and Lamar, these would be the 2 QBs I try to target the hardest this year. Unfortunately draft position tends to dictate strategy in my opinion, due to the nature of cliffs, tiers, and dead zones. If I'm in the early-mid section of the 3rd round, I'm probably not drafting the top 3 QBs unless the WR/RB gap really hits me. However if I'm in the back half of the 3rd/4th, it's probably an easy decision. The early part of the draft has a good chance to land Herbert/Lamar at the 4/5 wrap, but I do not think the same is true for the 5/6 wrap for the people at the back half of the draft. Because of that, if I'm in spots 1-6, I'm more inclined to gamble on Herbert/Lamar falling to me in the 4/5 wrap. But if I'm in spots 7-12, I'm probably just taking one of those elite 3, and not risking missing the next tier at the 5/6 wrap.

Just my .02 and outlook on the board... as of today.

Via GoHawks:
"Allen played half the season with a partially torn UCL. It impacted his ability to throw and even altered his mechanics to an extent. You bring up what Hurts did later in the season, but Allen suffered the injury in week 9. In week 1-8 he averaged 28.1 PPG. 447-point pace is a lot. Allen was on pace for 478 points before his injury. That's just absolutely bonkers. "

LOL !!! Hurts was dominant ??? and Now he's in the Mahomes / Allen converstaion ??? WTF is going on here??
He was 10th in passing Yds and 14th in passing TDs ... WITH THE BEST ROSTER IN THE NFL!!!!!!!!!!!!

He was the best fantasy qb all season long

And he was the truly the least productive QB in the 4th quarter. The Eagles were just in grind the clock mode literally every 4th quarter all year. If teams can force them to keep playing fast in the 4th, we could easily see a big jump in his numbers and a potentially historic season. All reports I've heard from camp is that he looks incredible and is way ahead of where he was this time last year. Tough to be much better than he was but I do think Hurts has some kind of intangible quality to him that is special. The kind of trait that even among the best of the best is very very rare.

 

[massraider]

Gotta tell you, finding out there are STILL non-believers puts me in a good mood.

 

[3 hour lunch]

I think I was as wrong about Hurts as I’ve ever been on anyone. Seemed to be pretty inaccurate at Alabama. You knew he was tough, but I didn’t think he’d make it in the NFL. He’s a stud now. I’m not sure the rushing TDs is sustainable but they haven’t outlawed that dumb push play yet so maybe not. I would take him 1st qb overall and I’m sure I’m not alone.

 

[need2know]

I've been giving it some thought, and I'm really starting to think, the top 3 QBs should be ordered differently. After assessing the 2022 season as a whole as a slightly down year for QBs, it helped me realize that perhaps the dominance that Hurts/Allen/Mahomes had over the field, wasn't because they were good, it's because everyone else was... worse.

On the surface those seem like the same thing, but when it comes to analyzing data, statistically, we're trying to assess what's most likely to happen next.

So, lets just start with the 3 top QBs and challenge the order of them simply with 2022 in mind. (Yahoo scoring for this part)
Mahomes averaged 24.8 points per game, threw 5,250 yards, 41 TDs and another 4TDs on the ground. So, 5,600 total yards and 45 total TDs. To average 24.8ppg.

Allen 5000 total yards, 42 total TDs, to average 25.3ppg.
Hurts 4400 total yards, 35 total TDs, to average 25.3ppg.

If we just look at those 3 stat lines, and I asked you who has the most room to grow, or the easiest path to duplicate their '22 season fantasy stats, who would you pick?

For me... even though I think Mahomes is very likely to repeat his season year over year, if we're being realistic, the chances of 5600/45 is not very high. But, obviously we've seen him have the 50TD season, so it's not out of the realm of possibility. But keep in mind, that even in Mahomes' 5300/52 TD season... he only averaged 26.7ppg. I'm not downplaying this at all, just illustrating that the 'upside' we know Mahomes has, doesn't translate to a notable jump in fantasy production. 1.9ppg is good, but we're talking about absolute ceilings here essentially.

Allen's 5,000/42 seems well within reason, with potential to grow with Gabe healthy, Cook fully integrated, and the addition of Kincaid.
To support that, take note that since Diggs has showed up, Allen over the past 3 years has averaged 24.9, 24.2, and 25.2. His rushing help's modulate his production from year to year, whereas Mahomes has a bit more fluctuation in his production due to being reliant on his passing TD total. Over the past 5 years, Mahomes has has an every other year dip, starting in 2018 it looks like so: 26.7, 20.7, 25.0, 21.8, 24.8. Because of this, I actually think Allen offers the safest floor for year over year production between these 2, and if you were predicting which one hasn't hit their ceiling yet, it seems like Allen is a better bet.

Hurts on the other hand, obviously has the shortest track record, making him the riskiest of these 3 in my opinion. But with that risk, you get the upside, and I actually think we started seeing it last year, and perhaps many didn't notice. Let's not forget that it was AJB's first season with Hurts after being traded, it was only D.Smith's 2nd year, and now they have swapped Sanders for Swift, a premier pass catching back.
Regardless, from his '22 stats totaling only 4400 yards and 35TDs, its interesting to think about what his ceiling could be, in the event he were able to approach the 40-45TD range. These figures are slightly skewed, because Hurts missed 2 games last year, full disclosure there, but I'm really just trying to think about this from the perspective of... if I'm investing a 3rd round pick in one of these guys, not only which one is most likely to repeat, but which one is the least likely to regress, and which one has the most room to grow, to potentially rival the 28.1ppg 2018 Lamar Jackson season. I'm not predicting 1200 rushing yards for Hurts, but if Hurts can hit that 43TD mark, suddenly a guy who was already the best QB in PPG for 2022, now jumps into a tier ahead of the other 2.

I mentioned this might have happened when we weren't noticing last year, because of Hurts' missed games, it doesn't show up as clearly when stat diving, but I want you to consider this, from week 10 to week 18, Jalen Hurts was averaging 26.5PPG, a full 2.5 more than Mahomes was over the 2nd half of the season, and this also includes the game where Hurts failed to break double digits against the Giants in week 18. Because both of these QBs went to the superbowl, our data pool gets even bigger. From week 10 through the SB, Mahomes averaged 23.0ppg. Basically, Mahomes was just a machine from the start of the season to the end of the season, there appear to be no flukes, fluctuations, waves, just consistent performance every single week. From week 10 through the SB, Hurts was averaging 26.3ppg. A full 3.3ppg advantage over Mahomes. Allen from week 10, to the DP, averaged 22.5ppg for what it's worth.

When I break down the games and see how Hurts seemed to steadily progress upward as the season went on, combined with his room for growth, his upside at the QB position (among this tier) is the most appealing to me. It's easy to create a narrative that it was the development of Smith, or the chemistry with AJB. It's also easy to point to a 3 game stretch from week 13-15 where Hurts put up 34, 30, 34, and perhaps it's just coincidence. 13 rushing TDs is unlikely to repeat, but as long as they come through the air, it won't be a massive loss, but if they go to a RB on the ground (Penny) then it could be detrimental, but you're still just chasing a 17 week pace of 40TD.

For what it's worth his week 10-SB pace would extrapolate to 341/523 3804/22 + 190/980/20. 4800 total yards, 42 total TDs, 447 fantasy points. I went back to 2010 and no QB has ever scored that many points before. Lamar Jackson only played 15 games in 2019 and scored 421. Mahomes was at 427 in 2018.

I was curious if maybe splitting games was personal bias, or skewing the data, so I just went back and took the average of his entire season out of curiosity.
Week 1 through the SuperBowl. 18 games. He averaged 20/30/237/1.38 + 11/50/1 25.4ppg
17 week long season would equate to: 342/515/4032/23 + 187/855/17 for 432 fantasy points. Eclipsing both Lamar and Mahomes as listed above, the highest season I can find in my data, which goes back to 2001.

I think I'm changing my 1st tier of QBs to Hurts, Allen, Mahomes. Unless I draft Kelce, then I'm probably stacking. As always, we rank in a vacuum, but we do not draft in one.

The bigger question is... if we acknowledge that the point gap from QB1,2,3 to the field was inflated last year, and likely not indicative of what we can expect this year, how much are we over valuing the top 3 QBs at the moment, or more importantly, which of the QB in the next tier, is most likely to close that gap, for a noticeable discount. My guess is Herbert and Lamar, these would be the 2 QBs I try to target the hardest this year. Unfortunately draft position tends to dictate strategy in my opinion, due to the nature of cliffs, tiers, and dead zones. If I'm in the early-mid section of the 3rd round, I'm probably not drafting the top 3 QBs unless the WR/RB gap really hits me. However if I'm in the back half of the 3rd/4th, it's probably an easy decision. The early part of the draft has a good chance to land Herbert/Lamar at the 4/5 wrap, but I do not think the same is true for the 5/6 wrap for the people at the back half of the draft. Because of that, if I'm in spots 1-6, I'm more inclined to gamble on Herbert/Lamar falling to me in the 4/5 wrap. But if I'm in spots 7-12, I'm probably just taking one of those elite 3, and not risking missing the next tier at the 5/6 wrap.

Just my .02 and outlook on the board... as of today.

Via GoHawks:
"Allen played half the season with a partially torn UCL. It impacted his ability to throw and even altered his mechanics to an extent. You bring up what Hurts did later in the season, but Allen suffered the injury in week 9. In week 1-8 he averaged 28.1 PPG. 447-point pace is a lot. Allen was on pace for 478 points before his injury. That's just absolutely bonkers. "

LOL !!! Hurts was dominant ??? and Now he's in the Mahomes / Allen converstaion ??? WTF is going on here??
He was 10th in passing Yds and 14th in passing TDs ... WITH THE BEST ROSTER IN THE NFL!!!!!!!!!!!!

He was the best fantasy qb all season long

And he was the truly the least productive QB in the 4th quarter. The Eagles were just in grind the clock mode literally every 4th quarter all year. If teams can force them to keep playing fast in the 4th, we could easily see a big jump in his numbers and a potentially historic season. All reports I've heard from camp is that he looks incredible and is way ahead of where he was this time last year. Tough to be much better than he was but I do think Hurts has some kind of intangible quality to him that is special. The kind of trait that even among the best of the best is very very rare.

Exactly he didn't play in the second half of most games and missed 2 games. His already crazy numbers are going to go up