QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (1 Viewer)

[Fat Nick]

I'm reading more and more about Daniels as the interest from the Commanders seems to (at least in online reports) heat up some. I'm intrigued, but still have concerns. Can anyone who is closer to him comment on durability when running the ball? As a Washington fan, I'm still scarred by RGIII...A player who burst onto the scene in his last college year and won the Heisman as a rushing QB, but who was slender and had durability issues in the NFL, where defenses were bigger, faster, and stronger. (Sounds familiar...) How would Daniels perform without his legs? That's always a concern for rushing QB's.

Look at Kyler Murray's stats when he was banged up and he wasn't as mobile or asked to run less as a proxy...when he can run and "be Kyler," he looks good, and his mobility drives opportunities in the passing game. When he's asked to be more cautious running, his passing suffers.

 

[Biabreakable]

I'm reading more and more about Daniels as the interest from the Commanders seems to (at least in online reports) heat up some. I'm intrigued, but still have concerns. Can anyone who is closer to him comment on durability when running the ball? As a Washington fan, I'm still scarred by RGIII...A player who burst onto the scene in his last college year and won the Heisman as a rushing QB, but who was slender and had durability issues in the NFL, where defenses were bigger, faster, and stronger. (Sounds familiar...) How would Daniels perform without his legs? That's always a concern for rushing QB's.

Look at Kyler Murray's stats when he was banged up and he wasn't as mobile or asked to run less as a proxy...when he can run and "be Kyler," he looks good, and his mobility drives opportunities in the passing game. When he's asked to be more cautious running, his passing suffers.

Well I am still learning things about these players. Just in the early process of that right now.

But I am reading Dtake Maye runs like a FB and needs to learn how to slide.

I am not sure about Griffins durability issues? He got injured and career ended early. But he looked fantastic prior to this.

As far as Murray he is so short he needs to scramble to find a clear throwing lane. He will always need to do that like Doug Flutie, Drew Brees ect.

 

[menobrown]

Can anyone who is closer to him comment on durability when running the ball?

It's a concern. He's tall and lanky, runs pretty upright and is not big on sliding. Hearing a lot of stuff that he needs to learn to protect himself better. Nate Tice said a few weeks ago he needs to stop treating his body like he's Johnny Knoxville. Jeremiah echoed some of those same concerns, saying he can't just be throwing his body around like he does.

 

[Fat Nick]

Can anyone who is closer to him comment on durability when running the ball?

It's a concern. He's tall and lanky, runs pretty upright and is not big on sliding. Hearing a lot of stuff that he needs to learn to protect himself better. Nate Tice said a few weeks ago he needs to stop treating his body like he's Johnny Knoxville. Jeremiah echoed some of those same concerns, saying he can't just be throwing his body around like he does.

The bolded is exactly what I've been reading - and the part on not sliding is what concerns me. There are QB's built like Cam Newton who can run like that...but there are a lot of guys who aren't built for that kind of abuse who are very effective runners - if those guys don't learn when to give up on a run and slide a yard or two early in exchange for not getting hit, they usually miss decent chunks of time. That's a major concern for me personally.

 

[-OZ-]

Can anyone who is closer to him comment on durability when running the ball?

It's a concern. He's tall and lanky, runs pretty upright and is not big on sliding. Hearing a lot of stuff that he needs to learn to protect himself better. Nate Tice said a few weeks ago he needs to stop treating his body like he's Johnny Knoxville. Jeremiah echoed some of those same concerns, saying he can't just be throwing his body around like he does.

The bolded is exactly what I've been reading - and the part on not sliding is what concerns me. There are QB's built like Cam Newton who can run like that...but there are a lot of guys who aren't built for that kind of abuse who are very effective runners - if those guys don't learn when to give up on a run and slide a yard or two early in exchange for not getting hit, they usually miss decent chunks of time. That's a major concern for me personally.

Maybe I’m wrong but I think Johnson, Daboll, or O’Connell will get him to slide.
I don’t think it happens but Daniels to Minnesota would be awesome imo.

 

[Faust]

Is Jayden Daniels The Next Randall Cunningham?

 

[Fat Nick]

Is Jayden Daniels The Next Randall Cunningham?

This site has some interesting takes on the top QB's in the class. I appreciate their ability to go with their own take and back it up vs. the general consensus, but there are some really big swings on some guys.

 

[JohnnyU]

Is Jayden Daniels The Next Randall Cunningham?

I’d like to think he’s the next Jayden Daniels

 

[Faust]

Why Mel Kiper Jr. has Jayden Daniels ranked above Drake Maye on big board

 

[Biabreakable]

Some, perhaps many have Caleb Williams ranked as the top QB and some say the reason is they have more confidence in Williams as a passer than Daniels.

I can see some reasoning for that as Williams won the Heisman as a sophomore and has put up more highly productive passing seasons than Daniels has.

That said from a efficiency perspective Daniels Heisman winning season in 2023 was a significantly higher QBR than any of Williams very good seasons by about 30 points. It's a huge margin on top of what should already be considered borderline perfect. It turning perfection on its head and finding the ozone layer of possible levels of performance not really seen before. Williams hasn't quite done that.

It should be mentioned the level of competition for Daniels was higher than Williams was as well.

BUT Williams did it in his 2nd college season while Daniels didn't until his 5th season. So this is the main thing that may separate these 2 here. That Williams put up big passing numbers sooner in his college career.

Breakout age has shown to be a strong predictor of future success at the WR position.

Is the same true for the QB position? I don't know.

Looking at player profiler they define breakout age at the QB position as having 50 QBR and playing 20 or more plays per team game as prerequisites for breakout age.

I don't see anything suggesting break out age for QB mattering the way it does for WR.

That said they have Daniels as 94th percentile by breakout age (18.7) so the top 6% in this metric as well. Also ahead of Caleb Williams who broke out at age 19.8 years old. A year later than Daniels did.

So that idea doesn't seem to be in Williams favor either.

I think people are already coming around to the fact that there isn't much that makes Williams or any QB a better QB prospect than Daniels who may be the 1st QB selected in the draft once that time comes.

 

[Faust]

Jared Tokarz
Tough not to get excited about LSU's Jayden Daniel's deep ball

The 6'4 210 lb QB was 63% on 20+ Yard Throws last season w/ the next closest QB at 54% (PFF)

Lets not forget he also rushed for 1,079 yards and 10 TDs in 2023.

So much upside with Jayden imo.

https://x.com/jarednfldraft/status/1748404581736841435?s=61

 

[-OZ-]

Some, perhaps many have Caleb Williams ranked as the top QB and some say the reason is they have more confidence in Williams as a passer than Daniels.

I can see some reasoning for that as Williams won the Heisman as a sophomore and has put up more highly productive passing seasons than Daniels has.

That said from a efficiency perspective Daniels Heisman winning season in 2023 was a significantly higher QBR than any of Williams very good seasons by about 30 points. It's a huge margin on top of what should already be considered borderline perfect. It turning perfection on its head and finding the ozone layer of possible levels of performance not really seen before. Williams hasn't quite done that.

It should be mentioned the level of competition for Daniels was higher than Williams was as well.

BUT Williams did it in his 2nd college season while Daniels didn't until his 5th season. So this is the main thing that may separate these 2 here. That Williams put up big passing numbers sooner in his college career.

Breakout age has shown to be a strong predictor of future success at the WR position.

Is the same true for the QB position? I don't know.

Looking at player profiler they define breakout age at the QB position as having 50 QBR and playing 20 or more plays per team game as prerequisites for breakout age.

I don't see anything suggesting break out age for QB mattering the way it does for WR.

That said they have Daniels as 94th percentile by breakout age (18.7) so the top 6% in this metric as well. Also ahead of Caleb Williams who broke out at age 19.8 years old. A year later than Daniels did.

So that idea doesn't seem to be in Williams favor either.

I think people are already coming around to the fact that there isn't much that makes Williams or any QB a better QB prospect than Daniels who may be the 1st QB selected in the draft once that time comes.

Personally, I just love that we could see Chicago draft Daniels and Nabers.

 

[Biabreakable]

Some, perhaps many have Caleb Williams ranked as the top QB and some say the reason is they have more confidence in Williams as a passer than Daniels.

I can see some reasoning for that as Williams won the Heisman as a sophomore and has put up more highly productive passing seasons than Daniels has.

That said from a efficiency perspective Daniels Heisman winning season in 2023 was a significantly higher QBR than any of Williams very good seasons by about 30 points. It's a huge margin on top of what should already be considered borderline perfect. It turning perfection on its head and finding the ozone layer of possible levels of performance not really seen before. Williams hasn't quite done that.

It should be mentioned the level of competition for Daniels was higher than Williams was as well.

BUT Williams did it in his 2nd college season while Daniels didn't until his 5th season. So this is the main thing that may separate these 2 here. That Williams put up big passing numbers sooner in his college career.

Breakout age has shown to be a strong predictor of future success at the WR position.

Is the same true for the QB position? I don't know.

Looking at player profiler they define breakout age at the QB position as having 50 QBR and playing 20 or more plays per team game as prerequisites for breakout age.

I don't see anything suggesting break out age for QB mattering the way it does for WR.

That said they have Daniels as 94th percentile by breakout age (18.7) so the top 6% in this metric as well. Also ahead of Caleb Williams who broke out at age 19.8 years old. A year later than Daniels did.

So that idea doesn't seem to be in Williams favor either.

I think people are already coming around to the fact that there isn't much that makes Williams or any QB a better QB prospect than Daniels who may be the 1st QB selected in the draft once that time comes.

Personally, I just love that we could see Chicago draft Daniels and Nabers.

As a Vikings fan I am left to hope the Bears mess up somehow.

I saw the price for the Vikings to trade up to pick one would be 3 first round picks 3 second round picks and maybe a couple 3rd round picks. If they Bears are feeling nice.

Yeah no.

 

[Grahamburn]

Some, perhaps many have Caleb Williams ranked as the top QB and some say the reason is they have more confidence in Williams as a passer than Daniels.

I can see some reasoning for that as Williams won the Heisman as a sophomore and has put up more highly productive passing seasons than Daniels has.

That said from a efficiency perspective Daniels Heisman winning season in 2023 was a significantly higher QBR than any of Williams very good seasons by about 30 points. It's a huge margin on top of what should already be considered borderline perfect. It turning perfection on its head and finding the ozone layer of possible levels of performance not really seen before. Williams hasn't quite done that.

It should be mentioned the level of competition for Daniels was higher than Williams was as well.

BUT Williams did it in his 2nd college season while Daniels didn't until his 5th season. So this is the main thing that may separate these 2 here. That Williams put up big passing numbers sooner in his college career.

Breakout age has shown to be a strong predictor of future success at the WR position.

Is the same true for the QB position? I don't know.

Looking at player profiler they define breakout age at the QB position as having 50 QBR and playing 20 or more plays per team game as prerequisites for breakout age.

I don't see anything suggesting break out age for QB mattering the way it does for WR.

That said they have Daniels as 94th percentile by breakout age (18.7) so the top 6% in this metric as well. Also ahead of Caleb Williams who broke out at age 19.8 years old. A year later than Daniels did.

So that idea doesn't seem to be in Williams favor either.

I think people are already coming around to the fact that there isn't much that makes Williams or any QB a better QB prospect than Daniels who may be the 1st QB selected in the draft once that time comes.

Personally, I just love that we could see Chicago draft Daniels and Nabers.

As a Vikings fan I am left to hope the Bears mess up somehow.

I saw the price for the Vikings to trade up to pick one would be 3 first round picks 3 second round picks and maybe a couple 3rd round picks. If they Bears are feeling nice.

Yeah no.

If that’s the asking price then they aren’t really interested in trading the pick.

 

[Biabreakable]

Some, perhaps many have Caleb Williams ranked as the top QB and some say the reason is they have more confidence in Williams as a passer than Daniels.

I can see some reasoning for that as Williams won the Heisman as a sophomore and has put up more highly productive passing seasons than Daniels has.

That said from a efficiency perspective Daniels Heisman winning season in 2023 was a significantly higher QBR than any of Williams very good seasons by about 30 points. It's a huge margin on top of what should already be considered borderline perfect. It turning perfection on its head and finding the ozone layer of possible levels of performance not really seen before. Williams hasn't quite done that.

It should be mentioned the level of competition for Daniels was higher than Williams was as well.

BUT Williams did it in his 2nd college season while Daniels didn't until his 5th season. So this is the main thing that may separate these 2 here. That Williams put up big passing numbers sooner in his college career.

Breakout age has shown to be a strong predictor of future success at the WR position.

Is the same true for the QB position? I don't know.

Looking at player profiler they define breakout age at the QB position as having 50 QBR and playing 20 or more plays per team game as prerequisites for breakout age.

I don't see anything suggesting break out age for QB mattering the way it does for WR.

That said they have Daniels as 94th percentile by breakout age (18.7) so the top 6% in this metric as well. Also ahead of Caleb Williams who broke out at age 19.8 years old. A year later than Daniels did.

So that idea doesn't seem to be in Williams favor either.

I think people are already coming around to the fact that there isn't much that makes Williams or any QB a better QB prospect than Daniels who may be the 1st QB selected in the draft once that time comes.

Personally, I just love that we could see Chicago draft Daniels and Nabers.

As a Vikings fan I am left to hope the Bears mess up somehow.

I saw the price for the Vikings to trade up to pick one would be 3 first round picks 3 second round picks and maybe a couple 3rd round picks. If they Bears are feeling nice.

Yeah no.

If that’s the asking price then they aren’t really interested in trading the pick.

I read that price which was just the opinion of a Bears journalist not the Bears themselves. So who knows how accurate that is?

It is more than the Bears got from Carolina last season for the pick which was 9th overall a 1st this season #1 overall, 2 second round picks and DJ Moore, who I suppose might have been valued as a 2nd or 3rd round pick.

Pick 9 is higher than pick 11.

So that price is essentially a 1st round pick more than what they got for the pick last year.

Maybe the Bears more willing to take a similar deal as they did last year than this. Which is still a lot, but perhaps more likely to get a trade for the pick than the higher price mentioned.

2 spots different between 9 and 11 is significant. Not sure that warrants that much more though.

Incidentally looking at some big boards this morning and I notice BR has Daniels as 40th overall which seems low. Just not seeing that happening.

 

[smbkrypt24]

Some, perhaps many have Caleb Williams ranked as the top QB and some say the reason is they have more confidence in Williams as a passer than Daniels.

I can see some reasoning for that as Williams won the Heisman as a sophomore and has put up more highly productive passing seasons than Daniels has.

That said from a efficiency perspective Daniels Heisman winning season in 2023 was a significantly higher QBR than any of Williams very good seasons by about 30 points. It's a huge margin on top of what should already be considered borderline perfect. It turning perfection on its head and finding the ozone layer of possible levels of performance not really seen before. Williams hasn't quite done that.

It should be mentioned the level of competition for Daniels was higher than Williams was as well.

BUT Williams did it in his 2nd college season while Daniels didn't until his 5th season. So this is the main thing that may separate these 2 here. That Williams put up big passing numbers sooner in his college career.

Breakout age has shown to be a strong predictor of future success at the WR position.

Is the same true for the QB position? I don't know.

Looking at player profiler they define breakout age at the QB position as having 50 QBR and playing 20 or more plays per team game as prerequisites for breakout age.

I don't see anything suggesting break out age for QB mattering the way it does for WR.

That said they have Daniels as 94th percentile by breakout age (18.7) so the top 6% in this metric as well. Also ahead of Caleb Williams who broke out at age 19.8 years old. A year later than Daniels did.

So that idea doesn't seem to be in Williams favor either.

I think people are already coming around to the fact that there isn't much that makes Williams or any QB a better QB prospect than Daniels who may be the 1st QB selected in the draft once that time comes.

Personally, I just love that we could see Chicago draft Daniels and Nabers.

As a Vikings fan I am left to hope the Bears mess up somehow.

I saw the price for the Vikings to trade up to pick one would be 3 first round picks 3 second round picks and maybe a couple 3rd round picks. If they Bears are feeling nice.

Yeah no.

If that’s the asking price then they aren’t really interested in trading the pick.

I read that price which was just the opinion of a Bears journalist not the Bears themselves. So who knows how accurate that is?

It is more than the Bears got from Carolina last season for the pick which was 9th overall a 1st this season #1 overall, 2 second round picks and DJ Moore, who I suppose might have been valued as a 2nd or 3rd round pick.

Pick 9 is higher than pick 11.

So that price is essentially a 1st round pick more than what they got for the pick last year.

Maybe the Bears more willing to take a similar deal as they did last year than this. Which is still a lot, but perhaps more likely to get a trade for the pick than the higher price mentioned.

2 spots different between 9 and 11 is significant. Not sure that warrants that much more though.

Incidentally looking at some big boards this morning and I notice BR has Daniels as 40th overall which seems low. Just not seeing that happening.

The difference is the prospects at QB are better. They should get more for the first overall pick this year than last year.

 

[Biabreakable]

Some, perhaps many have Caleb Williams ranked as the top QB and some say the reason is they have more confidence in Williams as a passer than Daniels.

I can see some reasoning for that as Williams won the Heisman as a sophomore and has put up more highly productive passing seasons than Daniels has.

That said from a efficiency perspective Daniels Heisman winning season in 2023 was a significantly higher QBR than any of Williams very good seasons by about 30 points. It's a huge margin on top of what should already be considered borderline perfect. It turning perfection on its head and finding the ozone layer of possible levels of performance not really seen before. Williams hasn't quite done that.

It should be mentioned the level of competition for Daniels was higher than Williams was as well.

BUT Williams did it in his 2nd college season while Daniels didn't until his 5th season. So this is the main thing that may separate these 2 here. That Williams put up big passing numbers sooner in his college career.

Breakout age has shown to be a strong predictor of future success at the WR position.

Is the same true for the QB position? I don't know.

Looking at player profiler they define breakout age at the QB position as having 50 QBR and playing 20 or more plays per team game as prerequisites for breakout age.

I don't see anything suggesting break out age for QB mattering the way it does for WR.

That said they have Daniels as 94th percentile by breakout age (18.7) so the top 6% in this metric as well. Also ahead of Caleb Williams who broke out at age 19.8 years old. A year later than Daniels did.

So that idea doesn't seem to be in Williams favor either.

I think people are already coming around to the fact that there isn't much that makes Williams or any QB a better QB prospect than Daniels who may be the 1st QB selected in the draft once that time comes.

Personally, I just love that we could see Chicago draft Daniels and Nabers.

As a Vikings fan I am left to hope the Bears mess up somehow.

I saw the price for the Vikings to trade up to pick one would be 3 first round picks 3 second round picks and maybe a couple 3rd round picks. If they Bears are feeling nice.

Yeah no.

If that’s the asking price then they aren’t really interested in trading the pick.

I read that price which was just the opinion of a Bears journalist not the Bears themselves. So who knows how accurate that is?

It is more than the Bears got from Carolina last season for the pick which was 9th overall a 1st this season #1 overall, 2 second round picks and DJ Moore, who I suppose might have been valued as a 2nd or 3rd round pick.

Pick 9 is higher than pick 11.

So that price is essentially a 1st round pick more than what they got for the pick last year.

Maybe the Bears more willing to take a similar deal as they did last year than this. Which is still a lot, but perhaps more likely to get a trade for the pick than the higher price mentioned.

2 spots different between 9 and 11 is significant. Not sure that warrants that much more though.

Incidentally looking at some big boards this morning and I notice BR has Daniels as 40th overall which seems low. Just not seeing that happening.

The difference is the prospects at QB are better. They should get more for the first overall pick this year than last year.

Yeah maybe so.

 

[Max Power]

Some, perhaps many have Caleb Williams ranked as the top QB and some say the reason is they have more confidence in Williams as a passer than Daniels.

I can see some reasoning for that as Williams won the Heisman as a sophomore and has put up more highly productive passing seasons than Daniels has.

That said from a efficiency perspective Daniels Heisman winning season in 2023 was a significantly higher QBR than any of Williams very good seasons by about 30 points. It's a huge margin on top of what should already be considered borderline perfect. It turning perfection on its head and finding the ozone layer of possible levels of performance not really seen before. Williams hasn't quite done that.

It should be mentioned the level of competition for Daniels was higher than Williams was as well.

BUT Williams did it in his 2nd college season while Daniels didn't until his 5th season. So this is the main thing that may separate these 2 here. That Williams put up big passing numbers sooner in his college career.

Breakout age has shown to be a strong predictor of future success at the WR position.

Is the same true for the QB position? I don't know.

Looking at player profiler they define breakout age at the QB position as having 50 QBR and playing 20 or more plays per team game as prerequisites for breakout age.

I don't see anything suggesting break out age for QB mattering the way it does for WR.

That said they have Daniels as 94th percentile by breakout age (18.7) so the top 6% in this metric as well. Also ahead of Caleb Williams who broke out at age 19.8 years old. A year later than Daniels did.

So that idea doesn't seem to be in Williams favor either.

I think people are already coming around to the fact that there isn't much that makes Williams or any QB a better QB prospect than Daniels who may be the 1st QB selected in the draft once that time comes.

Personally, I just love that we could see Chicago draft Daniels and Nabers.

As a Vikings fan I am left to hope the Bears mess up somehow.

I saw the price for the Vikings to trade up to pick one would be 3 first round picks 3 second round picks and maybe a couple 3rd round picks. If they Bears are feeling nice.

Yeah no.

If that’s the asking price then they aren’t really interested in trading the pick.

I read that price which was just the opinion of a Bears journalist not the Bears themselves. So who knows how accurate that is?

It is more than the Bears got from Carolina last season for the pick which was 9th overall a 1st this season #1 overall, 2 second round picks and DJ Moore, who I suppose might have been valued as a 2nd or 3rd round pick.

Pick 9 is higher than pick 11.

So that price is essentially a 1st round pick more than what they got for the pick last year.

Maybe the Bears more willing to take a similar deal as they did last year than this. Which is still a lot, but perhaps more likely to get a trade for the pick than the higher price mentioned.

2 spots different between 9 and 11 is significant. Not sure that warrants that much more though.

Incidentally looking at some big boards this morning and I notice BR has Daniels as 40th overall which seems low. Just not seeing that happening.

I viewed DJ Moore as a first rounder as well. He was a former first who has produced in the NFL and is signed to a very team friendly contract.

I've even heard the semi-crazy argument that DJ should be viewed as two additional first round picks since 50% of the NFL first rounders bust and he is proven. I don't subscribe that that theory, but I can see where someone is coming from with it.

 

[Gally]

2 spots different between 9 and 11 is significant.

I don't think that is necessarily true. It depends if you have a tier break at 9 or 10. On paper it may seem significant but when factoring in the actual choice of players at those two spots may or may not be significant.

 

[Max Power]

Some, perhaps many have Caleb Williams ranked as the top QB and some say the reason is they have more confidence in Williams as a passer than Daniels.

I can see some reasoning for that as Williams won the Heisman as a sophomore and has put up more highly productive passing seasons than Daniels has.

That said from a efficiency perspective Daniels Heisman winning season in 2023 was a significantly higher QBR than any of Williams very good seasons by about 30 points. It's a huge margin on top of what should already be considered borderline perfect. It turning perfection on its head and finding the ozone layer of possible levels of performance not really seen before. Williams hasn't quite done that.

It should be mentioned the level of competition for Daniels was higher than Williams was as well.

BUT Williams did it in his 2nd college season while Daniels didn't until his 5th season. So this is the main thing that may separate these 2 here. That Williams put up big passing numbers sooner in his college career.

Breakout age has shown to be a strong predictor of future success at the WR position.

Is the same true for the QB position? I don't know.

Looking at player profiler they define breakout age at the QB position as having 50 QBR and playing 20 or more plays per team game as prerequisites for breakout age.

I don't see anything suggesting break out age for QB mattering the way it does for WR.

That said they have Daniels as 94th percentile by breakout age (18.7) so the top 6% in this metric as well. Also ahead of Caleb Williams who broke out at age 19.8 years old. A year later than Daniels did.

So that idea doesn't seem to be in Williams favor either.

I think people are already coming around to the fact that there isn't much that makes Williams or any QB a better QB prospect than Daniels who may be the 1st QB selected in the draft once that time comes.

Breakout QB age will be an interesting concept going forward. Especially since the league and fans are quicker to write off QBs than ever before.

I see people claim guys like Bryce Young and Justin Fields don't have it to be NFL QBs and they are only 22 and 24. Some of the first round prospects this year are older than Young and just slightly younger than Fields. I think those seasons playing at 22 and 23 in college slightly inflate a prospects viewed potential.

 

[Biabreakable]

What do people think the tiers look like in terms of prospect grade?

It seems to me there are two or three elite WR. Also 3 QB. 1 TE. I see 2 tackles pretty consistently being in top 10 lists. There seems to be many quality tackles in this draft.

Anyhow that's 9 players. Without defense.

 

[-OZ-]

2 spots different between 9 and 11 is significant.

I don't think that is necessarily true. It depends if you have a tier break at 9 or 10. On paper it may seem significant but when factoring in the actual choice of players at those two spots may or may not be significant.

True, but also this year’s draft looks stronger in that range than last year. Carter, Wright and Sko were nice prospects but we might be looking at Fuaga, Fashanu and McCarthy there this year. I think McCarthy > Richardson and the 2024 OL are better prospects. I do really like Sko as a G, he probably wouldn’t have gone above Latham.

 

[-OZ-]

What do people think the tiers look like in terms of prospect grade?

It seems to me there are two or three elite WR. Also 3 QB. 1 TE. I see 2 tackles pretty consistently being in top 10 lists. There seems to be many quality tackles in this draft.

Anyhow that's 9 players. Without defense.

Latu and Turner might go top 10, but the top players this year are offense.
it seems really likely that there’s only 4 or 5 defensive players taken top 20.

 

[Biabreakable]

What do people think the tiers look like in terms of prospect grade?

It seems to me there are two or three elite WR. Also 3 QB. 1 TE. I see 2 tackles pretty consistently being in top 10 lists. There seems to be many quality tackles in this draft.

Anyhow that's 9 players. Without defense.

Latu and Turner might go top 10, but the top players this year are offense.
it seems really likely that there’s only 4 or 5 defensive players taken top 20.

Hmm.

Well perhaps there is a tier drop after pick 10?

Sorry if this is too specific but I wonder if this occurs before pick 11 or not, circling back to the value of pick 11 compared to pick 1 in terms of what the Bears could pick at 11.

 

[-OZ-]

What do people think the tiers look like in terms of prospect grade?

It seems to me there are two or three elite WR. Also 3 QB. 1 TE. I see 2 tackles pretty consistently being in top 10 lists. There seems to be many quality tackles in this draft.

Anyhow that's 9 players. Without defense.

Latu and Turner might go top 10, but the top players this year are offense.
it seems really likely that there’s only 4 or 5 defensive players taken top 20.

Hmm.

Well perhaps there is a tier drop after pick 10?

Sorry if this is too specific but I wonder if this occurs before pick 11 or not, circling back to the value of pick 11 compared to pick 1 in terms of what the Bears could pick at 11.

Obviously we don’t know, but I don’t think the bears trade the pick. If they do, they’ll want to stay top 6 (I think)

 

[menobrown]

What do people think the tiers look like in terms of prospect grade?

It seems to me there are two or three elite WR. Also 3 QB. 1 TE. I see 2 tackles pretty consistently being in top 10 lists. There seems to be many quality tackles in this draft.

Anyhow that's 9 players. Without defense.

I like lists more then mock drafts but not much available right now from sources I bother with, which is sources with a high amount of NFL contacts. Not to be rude to the Waldman/Matt Miller's of the world, but I'm more into where the NFL is on these players then someone with the same qualifications as me to scout someone.

So I'm stuck with mocks right now and again only pay attention to those with NFL contacts or who rely heavily on them., So just looking at recent mocks by Jeremiah, Brooks and Dane Brugler I'll say this:

* They all got Dallas Turner in the top 10 and first player from the defensive side of the ball drafted. 2 of those 3 have Latu as the next defensive player at what would be picks 9 and 11. Verse as the second defensive player in one of the mocks and has ranged from 9-14 in all 3 mocks. Byron Murphy is the 4th DL chosen in 2 of those 3 mocks, the third in another. Murphy is a DT, the other are edge rushers.

*Jeremiah went away from the other two and has Fuaga as his second OT and Fashanu as his third. All of them have Alt in the top 2.

All of these players appeared in top 5 for all 3:

Caleb, Maye and Marvin

Without repeating the previous groups all of these players appeared in the top 10 for all:

Daniels, Odunze, Alt, Turner

All of these players appeared in the top 15 for all 3:

Nabers, Bowers, Fashanu, Verse, Arnold(all 3 put him exactly 12th),


All of these players appeared in all top 20's:

Latu, Latham, Murphy, Mims.

Brian Thomas missed consensus top 20 by one pick.

That covers 17 players out of the top 20 who by one pick would have been consensus top 20 picks.

Here are more players who made all 3 first round mocks and their range:

Fuaga(10-23), Wiggins(15-24), Fautanu (16-25), DeJean( 20-28), Guyton( 22-24), Kool-Aid (26-32), Morgan (24-32) and Mitchell (17-32)

That brings us to 25 players who made all 3 mock first rounds.



The following other players appeared in at least 2 of the 3 mocks:

JPJ (21 in both), Coleman(26/29), Newton(28th twice) Barton (25,31), Chop Robinson (23/29), Sweat (17/30), Nix (13,19)

That's 32 players.

Dane's mock hit 30 out of those 32 and the two he had the other two did not are McCarty(19) and Suamatia(27).

DJ's mock had 29 of the 32 with Rakestraw(21), Franklin(30) and Walker(31) not in the other two.

Brooks had 30 of the 32 in his mock with Trice(30) and Jenkins(31).

They have commented with one another how much their first round mocks have the same players so I do thin kthis is a good judge of the current consensus and tiers.

 

[Biabreakable]

I appreciate that Meno.

As far as mock draft lists I didn't look at as many as you but I made similar observations about Alt always being picked, but yes there are at least 3 tackles hovering around top 10 value. The main thing I wonder about is if they have a bit less value because the offensive tackle group is also deep and some good players still available with other than 1st round picks perhaps?

I'm curious where that really falls off in a group of at least a dozen top 100 type picks there.

I looked at Zierlien and Bruglar as they usually seem connected with what teams think than other sources. Although I do like DJ as well.

 

[massraider]

Every Run and Throw vs. Alabama

 

[travdogg]

What do people think the tiers look like in terms of prospect grade?

It seems to me there are two or three elite WR. Also 3 QB. 1 TE. I see 2 tackles pretty consistently being in top 10 lists. There seems to be many quality tackles in this draft.

Anyhow that's 9 players. Without defense.

Latu and Turner might go top 10, but the top players this year are offense.
it seems really likely that there’s only 4 or 5 defensive players taken top 20.

Hmm.

Well perhaps there is a tier drop after pick 10?

Sorry if this is too specific but I wonder if this occurs before pick 11 or not, circling back to the value of pick 11 compared to pick 1 in terms of what the Bears could pick at 11.

Obviously we don’t know, but I don’t think the bears trade the pick. If they do, they’ll want to stay top 6 (I think)

If the Bears trade the pick, I think they 100% keep Fields as the starter. I do agree its looking pretty certain they stay put and take Caleb Williams.

I think the allure of Daniels could push him to Washington at #2. Personally, I think Maye is a much better prospect, and some of that is due to age/supporting cast.

The Cunningham comp is pretty wild. If Daniels is even half that good he's a good pick. Cunningham in 2024 NFL, would probably have been a better version of Lamar.

 

[Faust]

2024 NFL Draft prospects: Jayden Daniels' scouting report says he's an electric player

2024 NFL Draft prospect preview: QB Daniels

 

[JohnnyU]

Is he the #2 QB in the draft now? Has he surpassed Maye?

 

[Mingooch]

I think the combine and interviews will determine that.

 

[ratbast]

As a Pats fan I hope he goes 2 so Maye falls to 3.

 

[Faust]

Louis Riddick
The data and the tape both showing that Jayden Daniels the best QB in college football in ‘23…AND…against the best competition/teams is when he was his best compared to all other QB’s.

What determines where he goes in the draft/how high he is selected will not be because of what he did on the field because…he was lights TF out between the white lines.

https://x.com/lriddickespn/status/1759688617222414721?s=61

Blond Sequitur
I see a lot of Jalen Hurts in him, oh wise Louis - what is your comparison for him from the current NFL QBs? Also, where would he fit best amongst drafting teams (position held aside, for the moment) - I say it a lot, your work is truly appreciated!

https://x.com/blondsequitur/status/1759691420926104018?s=61

Louis Riddick
He’s faster, a better passer, and can create better than Hurts. Just not as big/strong.

https://x.com/lriddickespn/status/1759691761033601382?s=61

 

[Faust]

Brad Crawford
Jayden Daniels averaging 8.1 yards per carry this season.

A few dual-threat Heisman winners on the ground:

Robert Griffin III in 2011: 3.9 YPC
Johnny Manziel in 2012: 7.0 YPC
Lamar Jackson in 2016: 6.0 YPC
Kyler Murray in 2018: 7.2 YPC

https://x.com/bcrawford247/status/1724610696082493494?s=61

2023.11.14

 

[Faust]

Paul Conner
Here's a random Saturday question.

Again, Washington has the #2 pick in the draft and is taking a QB.....

Is Jayden Daniels a better prospect than Robert Griffin III?

https://x.com/p_connerjr/status/1758917733381525593?s=61

 

[Faust]

Ben Standig
“It was surreal. It was crazy watching (Jayden Daniels) turn into that caliber of a player. We all knew he was that guy. To watch him tap into (that talent) was a great thing.”

https://x.com/benstandig/status/1760689673960321496?s=61

 

[JohnnyU]

where does he slot in a 14 team ppr start 1 QB (6 pts) DEVY league if MHRjr, Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Bowers, Braelon Allen, Worthy, Troy Franklin, Will Shipley are already on rosters? Rookie draft is separate from DEVY draft.

 

[eighsse2]

where does he slot in a 14 team ppr start 1 QB (6 pts) DEVY league if MHRjr, Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Bowers, Braelon Allen, Worthy, Troy Franklin, Will Shipley are already on rosters?

Behind Nabers, Odunze, and Thomas, then kind of in a big group of a few WR and like 7 RB's. So tied for 4th through 16th lol. Combine and draft will help sort that group out some.

 

[travdogg]

I think Daniels athleticism is being overrated. He's not super fast, and he's kinda small. He's nowhere near the athlete RG3 was, not even close, he's smaller and significantly slower. He's maybe the same size as Lamar, but significantly slower.

I have to dive deeper into it, but I'm having some trouble making a comp for him.

 

[kyoun1e]

As a Pats fan I hope he goes 2 so Maye falls to 3.

Although not loving the latest comparison of Mitch Trubisky. Ooof.

 

[-OZ-]

I have to dive deeper into it, but I'm having some trouble making a comp for him.

The comps I’ve seen that make sense imo are a better Tyrod Taylor or a classier Deshaun Watson.

 

[travdogg]

I have to dive deeper into it, but I'm having some trouble making a comp for him.

The comps I’ve seen that make sense imo are a better Tyrod Taylor or a classier Deshaun Watson.

I have Daniels as my QB3 (albeit a tier below Williams/Maye, and I could be talked into McCarthy over him as well) but I can't really come up with a better comp than Marcus Mariota. Mariota was bigger and younger, but I think their games were similar and final year production was very similar. I do think Daniels will have a better career, but Mariota looked like a damn fine prospect in 2015.

 

[-OZ-]

I have to dive deeper into it, but I'm having some trouble making a comp for him.

The comps I’ve seen that make sense imo are a better Tyrod Taylor or a classier Deshaun Watson.

I have Daniels as my QB3 (albeit a tier below Williams/Maye, and I could be talked into McCarthy over him as well) but I can't really come up with a better comp than Marcus Mariota. Mariota was bigger and younger, but I think their games were similar and final year production was very similar. I do think Daniels will have a better career, but Mariota looked like a damn fine prospect in 2015.

I was a huge fan and thrilled when MM went to Tennessee. Fair comp.

 

[scothawk]

I have to dive deeper into it, but I'm having some trouble making a comp for him.

The comps I’ve seen that make sense imo are a better Tyrod Taylor or a classier Deshaun Watson.

You can find classier Deshaun Watsons in prison

 

[Lansdowne]

I don’t like that he looks built like Tyquan Thornton, who himself always looks in danger of floating away in a slight breeze. That’s not the build I want in a quarterback. If my Pats end up with him then I’ll hope he proves me wrong.

 

[massraider]

I don’t like that he looks built like Tyquan Thornton, who himself always looks in danger of floating away in a slight breeze. That’s not the build I want in a quarterback. If my Pats end up with him then I’ll hope he proves me wrong.

Will they take away the rushing aspect of his game, because he is so skinny? And if so, what kind of prospect is he?

 

[Lansdowne]

I don’t like that he looks built like Tyquan Thornton, who himself always looks in danger of floating away in a slight breeze. That’s not the build I want in a quarterback. If my Pats end up with him then I’ll hope he proves me wrong.

Will they take away the rushing aspect of his game, because he is so skinny? And if so, what kind of prospect is he?

His problem is he doesn't slide early enough and leaves himself more susceptible to hits that could injure him. He won't last long in the NFL if he doesn't get smarter about that. Thankfully that's something that can be coached. Don't hold me to any of this though as I'm only going off some reports I've heard, I haven't seen enough of him in action to say for sure. The lanky frame is just a big concern to me.

 

[psychobillies]

I think Daniels athleticism is being overrated. He's not super fast, and he's kinda small. He's nowhere near the athlete RG3 was, not even close, he's smaller and significantly slower. He's maybe the same size as Lamar, but significantly slower.

I have to dive deeper into it, but I'm having some trouble making a comp for him.

Where are you getting the speed numbers from?

 

[psychobillies]

https://twitter.com/Sheadixon/status/1724190981854036309?lang=en

https://www.nfl.com/videos/lamar-jackson-s-top-5-fastest-career-rushing-touchdowns