QB Russell Wilson, PIT (3 Viewers)

[Tau837]

All I know is if I were Seattle, I'd move mountains to try to make sure starting next year he doesn't HAVE to run nearly as much. The history of the NFL isn't kind to QB's who have to make a sizable chunk of their living running the ball. I'm not sure there's been an elite rushing QB who managed more than a very brief run of sustained production before the inevitability of physical destruction caught up with him.

Steve Young seems to fit. And he did it the same way you described -- taking what was given. He did ultimately retire due to concussions IIRC, but not until he was 38.

 

[steveski]

All I know is if I were Seattle, I'd move mountains to try to make sure starting next year he doesn't HAVE to run nearly as much. The history of the NFL isn't kind to QB's who have to make a sizable chunk of their living running the ball. I'm not sure there's been an elite rushing QB who managed more than a very brief run of sustained production before the inevitability of physical destruction caught up with him.

Steve Young seems to fit. And he did it the same way you described -- taking what was given. He did ultimately retire due to concussions IIRC, but not until he was 38.

I don't watch the Seahawks a lot but when I do, I don't see Wilson getting hit very much. I think people are saying that elite rushing QB's usually don't last long, but it's not because they are running, it's because they are taking hits. I see Andrew Luck and other not as mobile QB's taking way bigger hits every week than I ever see Wilson take. Why would Wilson stop playing at a high level before someone like Luck? Maybe he won't be as fast at 35 as he is at 25, but he'll still be mobile.

Most (maybe all) previously successful running QB's were the kind that take hits so it's hard to compare them to Wilson.

 

[biju]

Wilson's such a strange case to me.

He's clearly got what it takes to be an elite-level game manager, which is a great thing to be when your defense and running are so stout. But even though that phrase shouldn't have a negative connotation, it does for whatever reason.

And he's just as clearly not JUST a game manager. I don't think he's got the tools to ever put up really big passing numbers, but he seems to have nerves of steel that allow him to really step up when the games and even seasons are on the line. And that's something that's been true of only a handful of guys in this league, and many of them are HOF'ers.

And then of course, he's also turned into this really opportunistic running threat -- kind of a take-what-they-give-you guy done at an A+ level.

To me, the combo of skills is almost unique in the league's history. I'm not really sure how to "rank him," if it even matters. And I sort of fear his level of respect with fans and media will always sort of trail behind his real life value because of it. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing for the team.

All I know is if I were Seattle, I'd move mountains to try to make sure starting next year he doesn't HAVE to run nearly as much. The history of the NFL isn't kind to QB's who have to make a sizable chunk of their living running the ball. I'm not sure there's been an elite rushing QB who managed more than a very brief run of sustained production before the inevitability of physical destruction caught up with him. Would hate to see that happen to Russ. I guess if that's what the team needs to succeed this year, I'd keep my fingers crossed and hope for the best, but with the new contract looming, he's going to be too expensive a piece to risk letting him run as often as he's had to this year.

Just curious, why do you think this?

 

[Chaz McNulty]

Wilson's such a strange case to me.

He's clearly got what it takes to be an elite-level game manager, which is a great thing to be when your defense and running are so stout. But even though that phrase shouldn't have a negative connotation, it does for whatever reason.

And he's just as clearly not JUST a game manager. I don't think he's got the tools to ever put up really big passing numbers, but he seems to have nerves of steel that allow him to really step up when the games and even seasons are on the line. And that's something that's been true of only a handful of guys in this league, and many of them are HOF'ers.

And then of course, he's also turned into this really opportunistic running threat -- kind of a take-what-they-give-you guy done at an A+ level.

To me, the combo of skills is almost unique in the league's history. I'm not really sure how to "rank him," if it even matters. And I sort of fear his level of respect with fans and media will always sort of trail behind his real life value because of it. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing for the team.

All I know is if I were Seattle, I'd move mountains to try to make sure starting next year he doesn't HAVE to run nearly as much. The history of the NFL isn't kind to QB's who have to make a sizable chunk of their living running the ball. I'm not sure there's been an elite rushing QB who managed more than a very brief run of sustained production before the inevitability of physical destruction caught up with him. Would hate to see that happen to Russ. I guess if that's what the team needs to succeed this year, I'd keep my fingers crossed and hope for the best, but with the new contract looming, he's going to be too expensive a piece to risk letting him run as often as he's had to this year.

Just curious, why do you think this?

I don't think anyone could put up big passing numbers in the offense as it stands now. No WR or TE threats and a weak pass blocking line do not make for a consistent pass attack.

I would go so far as to say that I wouldn't want any other QB more than Wilson to play in this version of offense. I think he makes the most with the least. I'm not saying that he is the best QB in the league, but I think he is the best QB in the league for what Seattle has on offense.

 

[Dinkle Heimer]

All I know is if I were Seattle, I'd move mountains to try to make sure starting next year he doesn't HAVE to run nearly as much. The history of the NFL isn't kind to QB's who have to make a sizable chunk of their living running the ball. I'm not sure there's been an elite rushing QB who managed more than a very brief run of sustained production before the inevitability of physical destruction caught up with him.

But the majority of times he runs; it's because there is a 10 - 40 yard gimmee gain and he just runs out of bounds or slides. He suffers more punishment by trying to stand in the pocket.

 

[ex-ghost]

All I know is if I were Seattle, I'd move mountains to try to make sure starting next year he doesn't HAVE to run nearly as much. The history of the NFL isn't kind to QB's who have to make a sizable chunk of their living running the ball. I'm not sure there's been an elite rushing QB who managed more than a very brief run of sustained production before the inevitability of physical destruction caught up with him.

Steve Young seems to fit. And he did it the same way you described -- taking what was given. He did ultimately retire due to concussions IIRC, but not until he was 38.

I don't watch the Seahawks a lot but when I do, I don't see Wilson getting hit very much. I think people are saying that elite rushing QB's usually don't last long, but it's not because they are running, it's because they are taking hits. I see Andrew Luck and other not as mobile QB's taking way bigger hits every week than I ever see Wilson take. Why would Wilson stop playing at a high level before someone like Luck? Maybe he won't be as fast at 35 as he is at 25, but he'll still be mobile.

Most (maybe all) previously successful running QB's were the kind that take hits so it's hard to compare them to Wilson.

He has gotten hit quite a bit this year. It seems he has been hit much more than last year, but don't have the numbers in front of me.

 

[Freelove]

All I know is if I were Seattle, I'd move mountains to try to make sure starting next year he doesn't HAVE to run nearly as much. The history of the NFL isn't kind to QB's who have to make a sizable chunk of their living running the ball. I'm not sure there's been an elite rushing QB who managed more than a very brief run of sustained production before the inevitability of physical destruction caught up with him.

Steve Young seems to fit. And he did it the same way you described -- taking what was given. He did ultimately retire due to concussions IIRC, but not until he was 38.

And Steve ran 50 times a year. Not 120 or whatever Russ will end up with this time. And it was ultimately taking punishment from that which drove him out of the league after about ten years' worth of starts. If that's the math you want to hang your franchise's hat on, you'd be looking at a four or five year career.

Hey, if fans want to root for that style to continue, more power to them. I'd be hoping for it to change. Even smart Qb's take disproportionally more damage the more they run. I wouldn't want that for my guy when he's proven he has what it takes to lead them all the way.

 

[Freelove]

All I know is if I were Seattle, I'd move mountains to try to make sure starting next year he doesn't HAVE to run nearly as much. The history of the NFL isn't kind to QB's who have to make a sizable chunk of their living running the ball. I'm not sure there's been an elite rushing QB who managed more than a very brief run of sustained production before the inevitability of physical destruction caught up with him.

Steve Young seems to fit. And he did it the same way you described -- taking what was given. He did ultimately retire due to concussions IIRC, but not until he was 38.

I don't watch the Seahawks a lot but when I do, I don't see Wilson getting hit very much. I think people are saying that elite rushing QB's usually don't last long, but it's not because they are running, it's because they are taking hits. I see Andrew Luck and other not as mobile QB's taking way bigger hits every week than I ever see Wilson take. Why would Wilson stop playing at a high level before someone like Luck? Maybe he won't be as fast at 35 as he is at 25, but he'll still be mobile.

Most (maybe all) previously successful running QB's were the kind that take hits so it's hard to compare them to Wilson.

Andrew Luck's career prospects have nothing to do with Russ, but FWIW, I haven't heard a single fan or media member say they thought Luck was being sensible in the way he exposes his body to punishment.

 

[The Commish]

I don't think anyone could put up big passing numbers in the offense as it stands now. No WR or TE threats and a weak pass blocking line do not make for a consistent pass attack.


I would go so far as to say that I wouldn't want any other QB more than Wilson to play in this version of offense. I think he makes the most with the least. I'm not saying that he is the best QB in the league, but I think he is the best QB in the league for what Seattle has on offense.

There are QBs in this league that would kill for what Wilson has at the moment.

 

[Freelove]

Wilson's such a strange case to me.

He's clearly got what it takes to be an elite-level game manager, which is a great thing to be when your defense and running are so stout. But even though that phrase shouldn't have a negative connotation, it does for whatever reason.

And he's just as clearly not JUST a game manager. I don't think he's got the tools to ever put up really big passing numbers, but he seems to have nerves of steel that allow him to really step up when the games and even seasons are on the line. And that's something that's been true of only a handful of guys in this league, and many of them are HOF'ers.

And then of course, he's also turned into this really opportunistic running threat -- kind of a take-what-they-give-you guy done at an A+ level.

To me, the combo of skills is almost unique in the league's history. I'm not really sure how to "rank him," if it even matters. And I sort of fear his level of respect with fans and media will always sort of trail behind his real life value because of it. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing for the team.

All I know is if I were Seattle, I'd move mountains to try to make sure starting next year he doesn't HAVE to run nearly as much. The history of the NFL isn't kind to QB's who have to make a sizable chunk of their living running the ball. I'm not sure there's been an elite rushing QB who managed more than a very brief run of sustained production before the inevitability of physical destruction caught up with him. Would hate to see that happen to Russ. I guess if that's what the team needs to succeed this year, I'd keep my fingers crossed and hope for the best, but with the new contract looming, he's going to be too expensive a piece to risk letting him run as often as he's had to this year.

Just curious, why do you think this?

1. I don't think he has the mindset. I think he'd rather preserve his team's drive via run, dumpoff, or throwaway than try to create something risky by relying on his arm. This is not a criticism. Just one way a good qb controls the game.

2. I don't think he has the arm. This goes hand in hand with the previous. It's not like he has a bad arm, but he lacks the kind of precision cannon you need to BOTH minimize risk AND thread it into tight windows or make difficult downfield throws. Rodgers might be the only guy right now who can walk that tightrope. Mostly the guys with the arms and the mentality to try those throws on the regular are riverboat gamblers. That ain't Russ. His passing numbers much more closely mimic Alex Smith than Luck or Roethlisberger. That isn't critical either. Alex would be awesome if he had legs and a killer instict.

3. The system. Seattle's seems like one of the league's least likely to make radical changes any time soon. Why would they? They're young, the staff is entrenched, and they've got a track record of success combining defense with game management.

 

[JamesTheScot]

All I know is if I were Seattle, I'd move mountains to try to make sure starting next year he doesn't HAVE to run nearly as much. The history of the NFL isn't kind to QB's who have to make a sizable chunk of their living running the ball. I'm not sure there's been an elite rushing QB who managed more than a very brief run of sustained production before the inevitability of physical destruction caught up with him.

Steve Young seems to fit. And he did it the same way you described -- taking what was given. He did ultimately retire due to concussions IIRC, but not until he was 38.

And Steve ran 50 times a year. Not 120 or whatever Russ will end up with this time. And it was ultimately taking punishment from that which drove him out of the league after about ten years' worth of starts. If that's the math you want to hang your franchise's hat on, you'd be looking at a four or five year career.

Hey, if fans want to root for that style to continue, more power to them. I'd be hoping for it to change. Even smart Qb's take disproportionally more damage the more they run. I wouldn't want that for my guy when he's proven he has what it takes to lead them all the way.

I think the question is why you think a QB running takes more damage than a QB standing in the pocket unable to brace for the impact because he's trying to deliver a ball.

To my mind, hits are hits.

Obviously, if a QB takes a hit, whether standing or running, instead of not taking a hit because he handed off or threw it away before the pressure could get to him, then he's taking more damage than he has to. But at the same time, isn't he expected to wait till the last minute before giving up on the play?

To my admittedly untrained eye, I don't see Wilson taking a high number of hits. He doesn't take a lot of punishment when he runs. He runs smart. And he does throw it away when he doesn't have a throw or a hole. Again, smart.

It's an odds thing. Between two guys equally talented, I'll take the odds on the guy who plays smart. Sure, injury can catch him. But I'll take the guy who slides a the last minute instead of the guy that gets helicoptered because he has no awareness or sense.

 

[Freelove]

All I know is if I were Seattle, I'd move mountains to try to make sure starting next year he doesn't HAVE to run nearly as much. The history of the NFL isn't kind to QB's who have to make a sizable chunk of their living running the ball. I'm not sure there's been an elite rushing QB who managed more than a very brief run of sustained production before the inevitability of physical destruction caught up with him.

Steve Young seems to fit. And he did it the same way you described -- taking what was given. He did ultimately retire due to concussions IIRC, but not until he was 38.

And Steve ran 50 times a year. Not 120 or whatever Russ will end up with this time. And it was ultimately taking punishment from that which drove him out of the league after about ten years' worth of starts. If that's the math you want to hang your franchise's hat on, you'd be looking at a four or five year career.

Hey, if fans want to root for that style to continue, more power to them. I'd be hoping for it to change. Even smart Qb's take disproportionally more damage the more they run. I wouldn't want that for my guy when he's proven he has what it takes to lead them all the way.

I think the question is why you think a QB running takes more damage than a QB standing in the pocket unable to brace for the impact because he's trying to deliver a ball.

To my mind, hits are hits.

I think a QB running the ball is more likely to take the kind of damage that shortens career and ends seasons prematurely because the history of the NFL has shown this to be the case. Interpret the history and the numbers however you like. I only stated what I would prefer to see if I were a SEA fan, and gave my reasons. You can disagree all you like, but I'll continue to reminisce on career lengths and frequency of catastrophic injury, and the way they relate to the number of carries.

I hope it works out for him either way. I think he's good to have in the league, as, like I said, I think he's pretty unique.

 

[Synthesizer]

Another thing that is pretty unique about him is that he has run for 800 yards and 5 TDs without taking many hits during those runs. Once he gets the first 5-10 yards, it's almost like he starts looking for a place to slide, or the sideline. Most of the other running QBs want to make a juke and take it to the house, where Wilson is comfortable just moving the chains.

 

[Chaz McNulty]

I don't think anyone could put up big passing numbers in the offense as it stands now. No WR or TE threats and a weak pass blocking line do not make for a consistent pass attack.


I would go so far as to say that I wouldn't want any other QB more than Wilson to play in this version of offense. I think he makes the most with the least. I'm not saying that he is the best QB in the league, but I think he is the best QB in the league for what Seattle has on offense.

There are QBs in this league that would kill for what Wilson has at the moment.

There are some more mobile QB's that could do OK, but you need to remember that Wilson is probably the most elusive QB in the league, yet he has been sacked 38 times (tied for 5th highest). Seattle's pass blocking is not good.

Also remember that Seattle's running game is realy helped along by Russell Wilson. Besides his rushing numbers, he also prevents an outside linemen from crashing down on Lynch on pretty much every play (for fear that Wilson will keep the ball).

 

[biju]

Wilson's such a strange case to me.

He's clearly got what it takes to be an elite-level game manager, which is a great thing to be when your defense and running are so stout. But even though that phrase shouldn't have a negative connotation, it does for whatever reason.

And he's just as clearly not JUST a game manager. I don't think he's got the tools to ever put up really big passing numbers, but he seems to have nerves of steel that allow him to really step up when the games and even seasons are on the line. And that's something that's been true of only a handful of guys in this league, and many of them are HOF'ers.

And then of course, he's also turned into this really opportunistic running threat -- kind of a take-what-they-give-you guy done at an A+ level.

To me, the combo of skills is almost unique in the league's history. I'm not really sure how to "rank him," if it even matters. And I sort of fear his level of respect with fans and media will always sort of trail behind his real life value because of it. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing for the team.

All I know is if I were Seattle, I'd move mountains to try to make sure starting next year he doesn't HAVE to run nearly as much. The history of the NFL isn't kind to QB's who have to make a sizable chunk of their living running the ball. I'm not sure there's been an elite rushing QB who managed more than a very brief run of sustained production before the inevitability of physical destruction caught up with him. Would hate to see that happen to Russ. I guess if that's what the team needs to succeed this year, I'd keep my fingers crossed and hope for the best, but with the new contract looming, he's going to be too expensive a piece to risk letting him run as often as he's had to this year.

Just curious, why do you think this?

1. I don't think he has the mindset. I think he'd rather preserve his team's drive via run, dumpoff, or throwaway than try to create something risky by relying on his arm. This is not a criticism. Just one way a good qb controls the game.

2. I don't think he has the arm. This goes hand in hand with the previous. It's not like he has a bad arm, but he lacks the kind of precision cannon you need to BOTH minimize risk AND thread it into tight windows or make difficult downfield throws. Rodgers might be the only guy right now who can walk that tightrope. Mostly the guys with the arms and the mentality to try those throws on the regular are riverboat gamblers. That ain't Russ. His passing numbers much more closely mimic Alex Smith than Luck or Roethlisberger. That isn't critical either. Alex would be awesome if he had legs and a killer instict.

3. The system. Seattle's seems like one of the league's least likely to make radical changes any time soon. Why would they? They're young, the staff is entrenched, and they've got a track record of success combining defense with game management.

Interesting. I'm going to try to honestly debate this. Please note, I'm a homer but I'm going to do my best to make this a debate instead of a homer-fest. Bear with me...

#1 doesn't really imply he doesn't have the tools (a.k.a. skillset) but rather this is the direction of the style of offense. Carroll preaches ball control and preventing turnovers. I understand every coach probably does this, but someone like Andrew Luck slings the ball more freely and generates more INTs on a percentage basis. It's a style thing, not a skillset thing IMO. I'd like to explore this more...

#2 is interesting because I actually think the data suggests Wilson hits more often on downfield throws than other QBs. I'll need to check the data on that one, but as of last year I'm pretty sure he is one of the most accurate. One of the issues that surrounds this however is time in the pocket to let the play develop. The Seattle O-line is actually in the lower half of the league and made to look "good" because of Wilson's scrambling. But when he scrambles the WRs come back and move differently which affects his deep passing. I think most of the pundits who visit Seattle are actually surprised by Wilson's arm strength and accuracy though...

#3. Here's where we agree, but again I would say this isn't a skillset thing but rather their offensive philosophy. There have been games where they rely on Wilson (the ATL playoff game in 2012) to get them back in the game (and also drop the run game) and he does so. Also the Bears game in 2012, the TB and Houston games in 2013, and the Superbowl. One of the common misconceptions has been that if you shut Marshawn Lynch down the offense comes to a screeching halt. But there are plenty of games where Lynch is stymied only to have Wilson win the game with a handful of passes and miraculous scrambles.

 

[Tau837]

All I know is if I were Seattle, I'd move mountains to try to make sure starting next year he doesn't HAVE to run nearly as much. The history of the NFL isn't kind to QB's who have to make a sizable chunk of their living running the ball. I'm not sure there's been an elite rushing QB who managed more than a very brief run of sustained production before the inevitability of physical destruction caught up with him.

Steve Young seems to fit. And he did it the same way you described -- taking what was given. He did ultimately retire due to concussions IIRC, but not until he was 38.

And Steve ran 50 times a year. Not 120 or whatever Russ will end up with this time. And it was ultimately taking punishment from that which drove him out of the league after about ten years' worth of starts. If that's the math you want to hang your franchise's hat on, you'd be looking at a four or five year career.

Hey, if fans want to root for that style to continue, more power to them. I'd be hoping for it to change. Even smart Qb's take disproportionally more damage the more they run. I wouldn't want that for my guy when he's proven he has what it takes to lead them all the way.

Once he became the starter in SF, Young averaged 4.4 rushing attempts per game. To date in his career, Wilson has averaged 6.4 rushing attempts per game. Furthermore, having watched Wilson play a lot, both in college and the NFL, he very rarely takes a big hit when he runs. He is very smart about it, he runs under control, and he gets down well. I think these tendencies of Wilson's make up for the extra couple rushing attempts per game.

As for the bolded, can you provide a link? I know he retired due to concussions, but I am not aware that it was concussions sustained on runs, as opposed to concussions sustained from sacks and/or from rolling out to pass. I watched him play plenty, and I suspect it was actually the latter.

 

[Tau837]

I think a QB running the ball is more likely to take the kind of damage that shortens career and ends seasons prematurely because the history of the NFL has shown this to be the case.

Can you name the QBs in the history of the NFL that prove this point? That is, the QBs whose seasons and/or careers ended prematurely because of injuries sustained while running?

 

[JamesTheScot]

All I know is if I were Seattle, I'd move mountains to try to make sure starting next year he doesn't HAVE to run nearly as much. The history of the NFL isn't kind to QB's who have to make a sizable chunk of their living running the ball. I'm not sure there's been an elite rushing QB who managed more than a very brief run of sustained production before the inevitability of physical destruction caught up with him.

Steve Young seems to fit. And he did it the same way you described -- taking what was given. He did ultimately retire due to concussions IIRC, but not until he was 38.

And Steve ran 50 times a year. Not 120 or whatever Russ will end up with this time. And it was ultimately taking punishment from that which drove him out of the league after about ten years' worth of starts. If that's the math you want to hang your franchise's hat on, you'd be looking at a four or five year career.

Hey, if fans want to root for that style to continue, more power to them. I'd be hoping for it to change. Even smart Qb's take disproportionally more damage the more they run. I wouldn't want that for my guy when he's proven he has what it takes to lead them all the way.

I think the question is why you think a QB running takes more damage than a QB standing in the pocket unable to brace for the impact because he's trying to deliver a ball.

To my mind, hits are hits.

I think a QB running the ball is more likely to take the kind of damage that shortens career and ends seasons prematurely because the history of the NFL has shown this to be the case. Interpret the history and the numbers however you like. I only stated what I would prefer to see if I were a SEA fan, and gave my reasons. You can disagree all you like, but I'll continue to reminisce on career lengths and frequency of catastrophic injury, and the way they relate to the number of carries.

I hope it works out for him either way. I think he's good to have in the league, as, like I said, I think he's pretty unique.

Was Troy Aikman a running QB? Or was it the hits he took standing in the pocket that did him in?

If you have a QB who relies on his legs and can't be a pocket passer, then lower body injuries may cost him his career. But there is nothing so far to indicate that Wilson would be limited in the same way as a Michael Vick would be.

 

[Tau837]

Wilson's such a strange case to me.

He's clearly got what it takes to be an elite-level game manager, which is a great thing to be when your defense and running are so stout. But even though that phrase shouldn't have a negative connotation, it does for whatever reason.

And he's just as clearly not JUST a game manager. I don't think he's got the tools to ever put up really big passing numbers, but he seems to have nerves of steel that allow him to really step up when the games and even seasons are on the line. And that's something that's been true of only a handful of guys in this league, and many of them are HOF'ers.

And then of course, he's also turned into this really opportunistic running threat -- kind of a take-what-they-give-you guy done at an A+ level.

To me, the combo of skills is almost unique in the league's history. I'm not really sure how to "rank him," if it even matters. And I sort of fear his level of respect with fans and media will always sort of trail behind his real life value because of it. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing for the team.

All I know is if I were Seattle, I'd move mountains to try to make sure starting next year he doesn't HAVE to run nearly as much. The history of the NFL isn't kind to QB's who have to make a sizable chunk of their living running the ball. I'm not sure there's been an elite rushing QB who managed more than a very brief run of sustained production before the inevitability of physical destruction caught up with him. Would hate to see that happen to Russ. I guess if that's what the team needs to succeed this year, I'd keep my fingers crossed and hope for the best, but with the new contract looming, he's going to be too expensive a piece to risk letting him run as often as he's had to this year.

Just curious, why do you think this?

1. I don't think he has the mindset. I think he'd rather preserve his team's drive via run, dumpoff, or throwaway than try to create something risky by relying on his arm. This is not a criticism. Just one way a good qb controls the game.

2. I don't think he has the arm. This goes hand in hand with the previous. It's not like he has a bad arm, but he lacks the kind of precision cannon you need to BOTH minimize risk AND thread it into tight windows or make difficult downfield throws. Rodgers might be the only guy right now who can walk that tightrope. Mostly the guys with the arms and the mentality to try those throws on the regular are riverboat gamblers. That ain't Russ. His passing numbers much more closely mimic Alex Smith than Luck or Roethlisberger. That isn't critical either. Alex would be awesome if he had legs and a killer instict.

3. The system. Seattle's seems like one of the league's least likely to make radical changes any time soon. Why would they? They're young, the staff is entrenched, and they've got a track record of success combining defense with game management.

I disagree.

1. Basically, you are saying he is a smart QB who avoids unnecessary risk. That doesn't preclude him from ever putting up big passing numbers. In his career to date, it wasn't necessary for him to pass enough to put up big numbers to win. At some point in the future, it likely will become necessary. There is absolutely no reason to believe he won't excel when that happens.

2. PFF tracks a deep passing accuracy metric. Among all QBs who took 25% or more of their teams' dropbacks, Wilson ranked #7 in 2012, #3 in 2013, and #17 this season.

PFF also tracks the percentage of pass attempts that were deep pass attempts. Among all QBs who took 25% or more of their teams' dropbacks, Wilson ranked #2 in 2012, #7T in 2013, and #26 this season.

IMO both of those metrics have dropped off this year because of the loss of Tate. Seattle's current WRs don't get enough separation downfield.

To compare him to Alex Smith just makes it seem like you haven't watched Wilson play much. His game is not at all similar to Smith's.

3. There seems to be a decent chance that Lynch won't be back after this season. While both Turbin and Michael are thought to be talented backups, I seriously doubt either or both of them will step in and provide equivalent production to Lynch. That will lead to more dependence on Wilson.

Also, Seattle is going to have to pay Wilson big dollars this offseason. That will inevitably lead to more roster turnover, most likely on defense, since they won't be able to pay all of their current players enough to keep them. It seems likely that this will inevitably cause the defense to decline. Again, this will lead to more dependence on Wilson.

 

[The Commish]

I don't think anyone could put up big passing numbers in the offense as it stands now. No WR or TE threats and a weak pass blocking line do not make for a consistent pass attack.


I would go so far as to say that I wouldn't want any other QB more than Wilson to play in this version of offense. I think he makes the most with the least. I'm not saying that he is the best QB in the league, but I think he is the best QB in the league for what Seattle has on offense.

There are QBs in this league that would kill for what Wilson has at the moment.

There are some more mobile QB's that could do OK, but you need to remember that Wilson is probably the most elusive QB in the league, yet he has been sacked 38 times (tied for 5th highest). Seattle's pass blocking is not good.

Also remember that Seattle's running game is realy helped along by Russell Wilson. Besides his rushing numbers, he also prevents an outside linemen from crashing down on Lynch on pretty much every play (for fear that Wilson will keep the ball).

None of this changes what I posted. Yeah, the Seattle pass blocking may suck, but there are worse O-lines out there and it's not even close. At least he has a running game he can rely on

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

Thanks for the championship Russell

 

[Mr. Brownstone]

Oh. My.

 

[LordHusker]

Wow. Just wow. After Jamaal Charles' dud, my stupid Moncrief goose egg and facing Beckham, I thought I was done. Now I am up one going into MNF with CJ going against AJ.

Amazing.

 

[Chaz McNulty]

I don't think anyone could put up big passing numbers in the offense as it stands now. No WR or TE threats and a weak pass blocking line do not make for a consistent pass attack.


I would go so far as to say that I wouldn't want any other QB more than Wilson to play in this version of offense. I think he makes the most with the least. I'm not saying that he is the best QB in the league, but I think he is the best QB in the league for what Seattle has on offense.

There are QBs in this league that would kill for what Wilson has at the moment.

There are some more mobile QB's that could do OK, but you need to remember that Wilson is probably the most elusive QB in the league, yet he has been sacked 38 times (tied for 5th highest). Seattle's pass blocking is not good.

Also remember that Seattle's running game is realy helped along by Russell Wilson. Besides his rushing numbers, he also prevents an outside linemen from crashing down on Lynch on pretty much every play (for fear that Wilson will keep the ball).

None of this changes what I posted. Yeah, the Seattle pass blocking may suck, but there are worse O-lines out there and it's not even close. At least he has a running game he can rely on

He plays a huge part in creating that running game. What QB in the league do you think they could substitute for Wilson that would have better success?

 

[mphtrilogy]

Thanks for the championship Russell

+1

Overdrafted him the past two years, this year was the payoff though. i had a decent amount of points to make up, but he delivered!

Love this guy.

 

[Stealthycat]

the stiff arm run and score at the end of the game made me scream like a little school girl

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Russell Football is everything Johnny Football is supposed to be, but tons better.

 

[Synthesizer]

Finished the year as QB #5 in standard scoring despite Seattle finishing dead last in passing attempts. He showed that a smart, athletic QB can effectively run the read-option without taking a ton of unnecessary hits. Really enjoyed watching him this year.

 

[Bayhawks]

Finished the year as QB #5 in standard scoring despite Seattle finishing dead last in passing attempts. He showed that a smart, athletic QB can effectively run the read-option without taking a ton of unnecessary hits. Really enjoyed watching him this year.

I was extremely impressed with Wilson this year; however I think it's important to look at the big picture, and not just the final FF points.

1-He's thrown more this year than in his first 2 years, and his completion percentage has dropped all 3 years (62.8% this year). His YPA is also the lowest it has been (7.6 YPA), and his TD rate is the lowest of his career, as well (1 TD/21 att).

2-His rushing YPC took a HUGE jump this year, and his rush TD rate more than doubled this year.

For the sake of argument, if you took his rushing averages for his 1st two years (with regards to YPC & rush TD rate), and applied it to his 2014 carries, he goes from QB4 to QB11. He'd actually be behind Cutler, Romo, and Newton in PPG, so you're looking at QB14 on a PPG basis if he doesn't have this huge year rushing the football.

So that raises the (FF) questions:

1-Do you expect his rushing numbers to continue at his 2014 levels, or revert to his 2012/2013 averages?

2-Do you expect his passing numbers to continue at his 2014 levels, or revert (or improve upon) his 2012/2013 averages (with more attempts, hopefully)?

How you answer those 2 questions is as important (if not more so) in determining his future FF value than his end of year FF points for this season.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Give him another weapon for defenses to cover and all of those numbers should increase.

 

[biju]

Finished the year as QB #5 in standard scoring despite Seattle finishing dead last in passing attempts. He showed that a smart, athletic QB can effectively run the read-option without taking a ton of unnecessary hits. Really enjoyed watching him this year.

I was extremely impressed with Wilson this year; however I think it's important to look at the big picture, and not just the final FF points.

1-He's thrown more this year than in his first 2 years, and his completion percentage has dropped all 3 years (62.8% this year). His YPA is also the lowest it has been (7.6 YPA), and his TD rate is the lowest of his career, as well (1 TD/21 att).

2-His rushing YPC took a HUGE jump this year, and his rush TD rate more than doubled this year.

For the sake of argument, if you took his rushing averages for his 1st two years (with regards to YPC & rush TD rate), and applied it to his 2014 carries, he goes from QB4 to QB11. He'd actually be behind Cutler, Romo, and Newton in PPG, so you're looking at QB14 on a PPG basis if he doesn't have this huge year rushing the football.

So that raises the (FF) questions:

1-Do you expect his rushing numbers to continue at his 2014 levels, or revert to his 2012/2013 averages?

2-Do you expect his passing numbers to continue at his 2014 levels, or revert (or improve upon) his 2012/2013 averages (with more attempts, hopefully)?

How you answer those 2 questions is as important (if not more so) in determining his future FF value than his end of year FF points for this season.

I think this is interesting in the vacuum of stats but doesn't really paint the right picture on *why* this is happening. This O-line is terrible at pass protection and he has to routinely scramble for his life. When he gets a clean pocket, or anything that resembles one he is absolutely deadly. And he's doing it today with 4 UDFA and 2 rookie WRs. I know everyone likes to say "well, he's got that run game and that defense" but nobody talks about the O-line and WRs he also "gets".

To me, the more interesting question is whether Seattle is going to invest in their O-line and WRs soon. I'm not sure they will actually, but if there's one thing I've learned about our FO is they are incredibly unpredictable.

 

[packer_junkie]

Hey,

to the morons saying you couldn't start him-- I am so glad I ignored you-- I was down 10 going into SNF and had my Wilson vs his Demaryious-- I am now up 29. Gosh, I should have listened you to & started Tannehill or Carr or some of the other scrubs you were pimping. On the biggest FF stage last night, Russ came through with one of the most clutch FF performances in the history of our league! I am forever grateful & will laugh at you morons saying mid season not to play him while I count the $$$ he just made me

 

[packer_junkie]

Can't defend him after this week. He missed throws all day

He is what I thought he was. Propped up by an all-time great defense and Lynch. As far as an NFL passing QB, he stinks.

lol you are a moron

 

[Synthesizer]

For the sake of argument, if you took his rushing averages for his 1st two years (with regards to YPC & rush TD rate), and applied it to his 2014 carries, he goes from QB4 to QB11. He'd actually be behind Cutler, Romo, and Newton in PPG, so you're looking at QB14 on a PPG basis if he doesn't have this huge year rushing the football.

Just to show that argument goes both ways, if you took his passing averages for his 1st two years and applied it to this year, he goes up to QB3 and possibly even QB2.

 

[gchip]

So that raises the (FF) questions:1-Do you expect his rushing numbers to continue at his 2014 levels, or revert to his 2012/2013 averages?

2-Do you expect his passing numbers to continue at his 2014 levels, or revert (or improve upon) his 2012/2013 averages (with more attempts, hopefully)?

How you answer those 2 questions is as important (if not more so) in determining his future FF value than his end of year FF points for this season.

1- No, not unless their WR corps remain lackluster. I, myself, expect PRich to step up in year 2. They might also address receivers in the draft.

2- See #1.

.....

For FF, I guess we'd be happy with how he's doing but I'm sure the team doesn't want their franchise guy running around as much. I bet they address that.

 

[CapnJB]

Russell Football is everything Johnny Football is supposed to be, but tons better.

That's why his name is on the ball.

 

[TheCommish]

Thanks for the championship Russell

+1

Overdrafted him the past two years, this year was the payoff though. i had a decent amount of points to make up, but he delivered!

Love this guy.

I hate the Seahawks (probably more Pete Carroll than anything), but I love me some Russell Wilson. Drafted him in the 16th round (IDP league), and started him all season long. Delivered for me big time in the league championship game when a lot of guys on my roster laid an egg.

He's an ideal draft-late fantasy QB, because his passing stats cause many people to pass on him, but he doesn't turn the ball over, and his rushing stats are gravy.

 

[Slapdash]

Best $5 I ever spent at an auction

 

[Faust]

Seahawks' Russell Wilson scrambles, jukes and stiff-arms en route to TD

 

[Bayhawks]

For the sake of argument, if you took his rushing averages for his 1st two years (with regards to YPC & rush TD rate), and applied it to his 2014 carries, he goes from QB4 to QB11. He'd actually be behind Cutler, Romo, and Newton in PPG, so you're looking at QB14 on a PPG basis if he doesn't have this huge year rushing the football.

Just to show that argument goes both ways, if you took his passing averages for his 1st two years and applied it to this year, he goes up to QB3 and possibly even QB2.

That's a good point, but it relates to the questions I posed.

If you feel his passing numbers are going to improve (as they did from year 1 to year 2), AND he'll continue to get more attempts, you can expect his FF numbers to increase. That being said, do you expect his passing numbers to improve AND his rushing production to continue at his 2014 level?

To be clear, I'm not saying Wilson isn't a top QB (real of FF), but that it's important to look at all factors, not just end of year numbers.

 

[Bayhawks]

Finished the year as QB #5 in standard scoring despite Seattle finishing dead last in passing attempts. He showed that a smart, athletic QB can effectively run the read-option without taking a ton of unnecessary hits. Really enjoyed watching him this year.

I was extremely impressed with Wilson this year; however I think it's important to look at the big picture, and not just the final FF points.

1-He's thrown more this year than in his first 2 years, and his completion percentage has dropped all 3 years (62.8% this year). His YPA is also the lowest it has been (7.6 YPA), and his TD rate is the lowest of his career, as well (1 TD/21 att).

2-His rushing YPC took a HUGE jump this year, and his rush TD rate more than doubled this year.

For the sake of argument, if you took his rushing averages for his 1st two years (with regards to YPC & rush TD rate), and applied it to his 2014 carries, he goes from QB4 to QB11. He'd actually be behind Cutler, Romo, and Newton in PPG, so you're looking at QB14 on a PPG basis if he doesn't have this huge year rushing the football.

So that raises the (FF) questions:

1-Do you expect his rushing numbers to continue at his 2014 levels, or revert to his 2012/2013 averages?

2-Do you expect his passing numbers to continue at his 2014 levels, or revert (or improve upon) his 2012/2013 averages (with more attempts, hopefully)?

How you answer those 2 questions is as important (if not more so) in determining his future FF value than his end of year FF points for this season.

I think this is interesting in the vacuum of stats but doesn't really paint the right picture on *why* this is happening. This O-line is terrible at pass protection and he has to routinely scramble for his life. When he gets a clean pocket, or anything that resembles one he is absolutely deadly. And he's doing it today with 4 UDFA and 2 rookie WRs. I know everyone likes to say "well, he's got that run game and that defense" but nobody talks about the O-line and WRs he also "gets".

To me, the more interesting question is whether Seattle is going to invest in their O-line and WRs soon. I'm not sure they will actually, but if there's one thing I've learned about our FO is they are incredibly unpredictable.

Great point. FA & the draft will be important in predicting his future FF value. Not only with what they do at OL and WR, but with Lynch and the RB position, as well. Turbin and Michael aren't Lynch, and if those are the 2 RBs they have, one would assume that Wilson is going to be even more a focal point of the Seattle offense.

 

[Synthesizer]

For the sake of argument, if you took his rushing averages for his 1st two years (with regards to YPC & rush TD rate), and applied it to his 2014 carries, he goes from QB4 to QB11. He'd actually be behind Cutler, Romo, and Newton in PPG, so you're looking at QB14 on a PPG basis if he doesn't have this huge year rushing the football.

Just to show that argument goes both ways, if you took his passing averages for his 1st two years and applied it to this year, he goes up to QB3 and possibly even QB2.

That's a good point, but it relates to the questions I posed.

If you feel his passing numbers are going to improve (as they did from year 1 to year 2), AND he'll continue to get more attempts, you can expect his FF numbers to increase. That being said, do you expect his passing numbers to improve AND his rushing production to continue at his 2014 level?

To be clear, I'm not saying Wilson isn't a top QB (real of FF), but that it's important to look at all factors, not just end of year numbers.

Wilson has every skill needed to be successful as both a real and fantasy QB. But for the past 3 seasons, Seattle has shown that they are very content keeping the passing attempts to a minimum and just winning games. Wilson needed a HUGE rushing season just to crack the top 5 QBs. That's going to be tough to duplicate but he's still a lock for 500 yards rushing and a handful of TDs. I see him settling in to that QB5-QB8 range for a long time.

 

[Dizzy]

For the sake of argument, if you took his rushing averages for his 1st two years (with regards to YPC & rush TD rate), and applied it to his 2014 carries, he goes from QB4 to QB11. He'd actually be behind Cutler, Romo, and Newton in PPG, so you're looking at QB14 on a PPG basis if he doesn't have this huge year rushing the football.

Just to show that argument goes both ways, if you took his passing averages for his 1st two years and applied it to this year, he goes up to QB3 and possibly even QB2.

That's a good point, but it relates to the questions I posed.

If you feel his passing numbers are going to improve (as they did from year 1 to year 2), AND he'll continue to get more attempts, you can expect his FF numbers to increase. That being said, do you expect his passing numbers to improve AND his rushing production to continue at his 2014 level?

To be clear, I'm not saying Wilson isn't a top QB (real of FF), but that it's important to look at all factors, not just end of year numbers.

Wilson has every skill needed to be successful as both a real and fantasy QB. But for the past 3 seasons, Seattle has shown that they are very content keeping the passing attempts to a minimum and just winning games. Wilson needed a HUGE rushing season just to crack the top 5 QBs. That's going to be tough to duplicate but he's still a lock for 500 yards rushing and a handful of TDs. I see him settling in to that QB5-QB8 range for a long time.

Agreed. There's every reason to believe that his passing skills and football IQ will only continue to improve. Maybe he won't be able to run like that forever, but eventually he won't have to either.

 

[The Commish]

I don't think anyone could put up big passing numbers in the offense as it stands now. No WR or TE threats and a weak pass blocking line do not make for a consistent pass attack.


I would go so far as to say that I wouldn't want any other QB more than Wilson to play in this version of offense. I think he makes the most with the least. I'm not saying that he is the best QB in the league, but I think he is the best QB in the league for what Seattle has on offense.

There are QBs in this league that would kill for what Wilson has at the moment.

There are some more mobile QB's that could do OK, but you need to remember that Wilson is probably the most elusive QB in the league, yet he has been sacked 38 times (tied for 5th highest). Seattle's pass blocking is not good.

Also remember that Seattle's running game is realy helped along by Russell Wilson. Besides his rushing numbers, he also prevents an outside linemen from crashing down on Lynch on pretty much every play (for fear that Wilson will keep the ball).

None of this changes what I posted. Yeah, the Seattle pass blocking may suck, but there are worse O-lines out there and it's not even close. At least he has a running game he can rely on

He plays a huge part in creating that running game. What QB in the league do you think they could substitute for Wilson that would have better success?

You seem to be confused by my words. I haven't attempted to make any points other than that there are other QBs in the NFL that would kill for an o-line like the one in Seattle. This means, while you may believe he had very little to work with, there are teams with far less out there. I don't understand why you keep trying to make the comments about something other than that.

 

[dollarbill13]

I have Wilson ranked as my #3 dynasty QB behind Rodgers and Luck. The main reason is that they drafted two WRs last year (Richardson and Norwood) and also tried to trade Percy Harvin for Jordan Cameron and Julius Thomas. While the TE trades were obviously a pipe dream, it tells me that Seattle is serious about significantly upgrading their receiving threats. Richardson and Norwood haven't shown too much this year but it's harder to get a lot of playing time as a rookie WR when you are in a run-heavy offense with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations. As long as Lynch is in Seattle and healthy, they will probably stay a run-first team. I'm 50/50 on whether Lynch will be back in 2015 but he's a free agent after that so the chances of him being around in 2016 are minuscule.

Wilson's passing numbers did decline this year but some of that can probably be attributed to losing Golden Tate and not replacing him with another experienced option. Matt Waldman had Norwood and Richardson rated as his #6 and #8 WRs last year so I think it's pretty reasonable to think that at least one of them will be ready for a starter role next year. Wilson isn't he passer that Rodgers and Luck are but he's still very good. I think in the next two years we'll see his passing attempts increase significantly. He'll likely run less but should still contribute on the ground. All that's really separating him from being elite right now are those "dud" games where he only has 15 pass attempts. Those should become fewer and farther between in the future, improving Wilson's floor on game-to-game basis.

 

[The Commish]

None of this changes what I posted. Yeah, the Seattle pass blocking may suck, but there are worse O-lines out there and it's not even close. At least he has a running game he can rely on

Guy ranks #15 in rushing yards by himself. Be sure to use the run game as a mark against him.

This is 5 of those yards

You guys have reading comprehension problems

ETA: I need to be clear on something in this regard though. Are you suggesting having a 1200 yard back isn't a big deal to a QB's success?

 

[CapnJB]

All that's really separating him from being elite right now are those "dud" games where he only has 15 pass attempts.

I agree with the rest of your post but the only time he's had 15 or fewer pass attempts was the 2012 58-0 rout of the Cardinals. This year he's averaging 28.5 passes per game.

 

[dollarbill13]

All that's really separating him from being elite right now are those "dud" games where he only has 15 pass attempts.

I agree with the rest of your post but the only time he's had 15 or fewer pass attempts was the 2012 58-0 rout of the Cardinals. This year he's averaging 28.5 passes per game.

Fair enough. I was thinking back to a few weeks ago when he only had 17 one week and 22 in a couple others. My point was that more passing should (hopefully) increase his weekly floor.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Finished the year as QB #5 in standard scoring despite Seattle finishing dead last in passing attempts. He showed that a smart, athletic QB can effectively run the read-option without taking a ton of unnecessary hits. Really enjoyed watching him this year.

I was extremely impressed with Wilson this year; however I think it's important to look at the big picture, and not just the final FF points.

1-He's thrown more this year than in his first 2 years, and his completion percentage has dropped all 3 years (62.8% this year). His YPA is also the lowest it has been (7.6 YPA), and his TD rate is the lowest of his career, as well (1 TD/21 att).

2-His rushing YPC took a HUGE jump this year, and his rush TD rate more than doubled this year.

For the sake of argument, if you took his rushing averages for his 1st two years (with regards to YPC & rush TD rate), and applied it to his 2014 carries, he goes from QB4 to QB11. He'd actually be behind Cutler, Romo, and Newton in PPG, so you're looking at QB14 on a PPG basis if he doesn't have this huge year rushing the football.

So that raises the (FF) questions:

1-Do you expect his rushing numbers to continue at his 2014 levels, or revert to his 2012/2013 averages?

2-Do you expect his passing numbers to continue at his 2014 levels, or revert (or improve upon) his 2012/2013 averages (with more attempts, hopefully)?

How you answer those 2 questions is as important (if not more so) in determining his future FF value than his end of year FF points for this season.

His YPA dropped because of the loss of Tate and because they had him throwing those stupid screens to Harvin a ton the first month or so of the season. The fact that Wilson is still top 10 in YPA despite throwing to what is easily one of the two or three worst WR/TE corps is pretty amazing. What he could do if he had a Gronk or a Jordy Nelson or a Demaryius Thomas or a T.Y. Hilton is scary.

 

[JohnnyU]

Why can he survive being a running QB and RG3 cannot? I know he's more accurate and seems to be a very smart runner, but he is at risk with how much he runs.