RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (3 Viewers)

[JoeJoe88]

It’s only week two fellas. Campbell made it pretty clear he was gonna be eased in. I’m not jumping ship just yet

Its not at all a positive that Craig Reynolds got touches over him when Monty got hurt

I am sure the Montgomery owners said that every time Gibbs got touches. Teams use more than one RB.

When Monty was in the game he out touched Gibbs 2 to 1 and Reynolds got nothing
When Monty got hurt Gibbs out touched Reynolds 2 to 1

It sure looks like Gibbs immediately became the RB1 and Reynolds became the RB2. If Monty misses time I would expect those ratios to hold.

The only concern is at the goal line where Reynolds outweighs Gibbs by 15lbs. But that was the concern all along.

That is fair, I was watching youtube 8 box mana so I missed that, just every time I saw that part of the game it was Reynolds

That said, the question is draft capital, you drafted Monty with a certain expectation based on Gibbs and the split (and to be fair anyone who drafted gibbs too, it was just a 3 round separation)

And look, shame on the drafters, but part of this first quarter of the season is parsing usage, team confidence and player competence.

Non one is selling Gibbs at a discount... but maybe we should. I don't think he's a league winner by any respect but the reason for my opinion is how we saw Swift get used.

I assumed if they dumped Swift for what looks like a lateral move, there was more upside there

Maybe in this week we can see based on how Philly used swift, Detroit ISN'T that bright and left meat on the bone with Swift.

While that is possible that Detroit did not get the best use out of Swift as they could, I dont think how the Eagles used Swift vs the Vikings is a good example of that.

The Vikings often played less than 3 defensive linemen vs the Eagles in that game and the Vikings head coach is on record that their defensive game plan was intentionally inviting the Eagles to run the ball. As baffling as that might sound. As a Vikings fan I am disgusted with their "plan" and that the coach would tell reporters this with a straight face. But that is what happened.

So I think this is a bad example of the Eagles knowing how to use Swift better than the Lions did and more an example of how poorly the Vikings roster is constructed and how bad their defensive philosophy is. I feel sorry for the Vikings players being forced to execute this way and somehow buy in to the game plan.

I am sure if the Vikings played defense like this against the Lions and their other starting RB was injured as Gainwell was for the Eagles in this game, they would have used Swift like this as well.

The logic behind the Vikings doing this was supposedly to take away RPO elements of the Eagles offense and limit big plays, which they were not very successful at doing either.

The Lions do not have Jalen Hurts though, so this a significant difference to consider I guess.

I like Campbell and I like Detroit so not here to dunk on them. I'm rooting for long overdue success to their fans. But that said, Sunday is a HORRENDOUS loss off the chief win. You have to beat the team traveling west to east, when you're off a mini bye and they're missing both tackles. So if I know only one thing, its that they aren't infallible. I do like your point here and Goff certainly isn't Hurts in terms of a threat but it will be interesting to see if they take their two Minnesota games to play copy cat and attack a similar way with a similar player

Swift isn't a league winner this year but my oh my in a week or two you might listen to Swift for Gibbs offers and I don't know if the Swift owner bites

I'd take swift for Gibbs in a heartbeat right now

Just seen swift , mingo and a mid first for gibbs go through this morning. Both pretty savvy veteran dynasty owners.

"Not great Bob"

Oh, the Gibbs thread was hilarious at the beginning of the season. Overreaction City.

 

[travdogg]

Not exactly a 1-1 comparison, but I keep getting flashbacks to the 2008 Titans with CJ2k and LenDale, where they kept using White at the GL, and to run out the clock in games when CJ2k was a rookie, but they realized who the better player was, and I could see that happening to an extent with Gibbs/Monty. Monty is fine, but Gibbs is a lot more talented.

I don't think it'd be a big surprise if Gibbs was the RB2 overall in 2024 behind only CMC.

 

[jon_mx]

Not exactly a 1-1 comparison, but I keep getting flashbacks to the 2008 Titans with CJ2k and LenDale, where they kept using White at the GL, and to run out the clock in games when CJ2k was a rookie, but they realized who the better player was, and I could see that happening to an extent with Gibbs/Monty. Monty is fine, but Gibbs is a lot more talented.

I don't think it'd be a big surprise if Gibbs was the RB2 overall in 2024 behind only CMC.

Gibbs stats will be towards the top and could even lead the league. The Lions like the thunder and lightning concept, but this season will be more on the lightning side. Monty will be closer to 800 yards than 1000 yards rushing this season, and Gibbs will be over 1600 total yards.

 

[Faust]

@32BeatWriters
Lions GM on Gibbs: “I definitely would expect him to see more of a load, but David Montgomery will still be here too. Dan and I love that 1-2 punch of him and David…I think he has much more to offer in the passing game, so most likely you’ll see an increase in that as well.”

https://x.com/32beatwriters/status/1790920598001942610?s=61

 

[BobbyLayne]

Not exactly a 1-1 comparison, but I keep getting flashbacks to the 2008 Titans with CJ2k and LenDale, where they kept using White at the GL, and to run out the clock in games when CJ2k was a rookie, but they realized who the better player was, and I could see that happening to an extent with Gibbs/Monty. Monty is fine, but Gibbs is a lot more talented.

I don't think it'd be a big surprise if Gibbs was the RB2 overall in 2024 behind only CMC.

Gibbs stats will be towards the top and could even lead the league. The Lions like the thunder and lightning concept, but this season will be more on the lightning side. Monty will be closer to 800 yards than 1000 yards rushing this season, and Gibbs will be over 1600 total yards.

I could see that. I like #26 to post a top 5 season, especially if they figure out how to better utilize him as a receiving. He was very underwhelming, not nearly as dynamic at producing splash plays as Swift was in the same system.

Monty is dawg, more elusive than most realize, and money when they it's 3rd/4th & short. He's also a really good receiver, albeit underutilized by Ben Johnson. Without question he is still going to have a big role, but I could see his numbers declining moderately.

Utilization wise, they ended up with 235 touches for Monty and 234 for Jah. After the season, both the player and the coaches said it didn't click for the rookie until the Baltimore game. Before that he was running too hard, too fast, instead of being patient and waiting for the holes to develop. 53 touches in 4 games through Week 6, then 181 over the last 11 games. Trading for him while he was hurt was the biggest reason I won a title in redraft last year.

The Lions scored 69 touchdowns across 20 games, 58 during the regular season. Four different guys hit double digits, and I think they'll spread the love again. You never know for sure what Ben will dial up.

Monty 15
Gibbs 14
ARSB 11
LaPorta 11
Reynolds 6 (signed with DEN)
Jamo 5

no one else had more than 2

(that is, confusingly, for all 20 games - regular season only, it was 13, 11, 10, 10, 5, 3 for the six I listed there)

 

[eighsse2]

From Fantasy Pros:

"Lions RB coach Scottie Montgomery says their hoping to see growth in Jahmyr Gibbs' route running, particularly from the slot."

Hard to interpret what that means. Especially considering the approximate worthlessness of coachspeak.

 

[Biabreakable]

From Fantasy Pros:

"Lions RB coach Scottie Montgomery says their hoping to see growth in Jahmyr Gibbs' route running, particularly from the slot."

Hard to interpret what that means. Especially considering the approximate worthlessness of coachspeak.

I don't think that's worthless information. It's specific about what they are hoping to see from him in practice and if he does well that he may get more snaps as a slot WR this season than last.

This seems consistent with what the GM and coaches are saying I would think.

If Gibbs improves his route running he may see a big uptick in targets and perhaps more useful targets for yards if he does get some WR snaps.

I think this circles back to their vision for him when they drafted him.

Targets are earned but I could see improvement in Gibbs overall performance for fantasy.

RB tend to have their best seasons year 2 to 6 of their careers historically. So I would already be expecting improvement, a jump in touches. Those touches may be in the form of more receptions.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Monty missed 3.5+ games due to injury last year
He had 2 games early in the season with 21 attempts and then 32 at Lambeau Field

David Montgomery 2023 Game Log | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Get David Montgomery 2023 game log for regular season and playoff games on Pro-football-reference.com.

www.pro-football-reference.com

Monty will continue to see 12-15 rush attempts per game IMHO, Gibbs or No Gibbs, Monty has a lot of value still
210/1,015/13 TDs in just 13-14 games last season
250/1,250/16 TDs if he had been able to play all 17 games

Some of this IS DUE to Gibbs being a rookie last season and being brought along slowly.

Jahmyr Gibbs 2023 Game Log | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Get Jahmyr Gibbs 2023 game log for regular season and playoff games on Pro-football-reference.com.

www.pro-football-reference.com

-Gibbs saw a steady diet of about 12-15 carries a game 2nd Half of the season
182/945/11 TDs on the ground also chipped in 52/316, not very dynamic numbers for so many catches, he can improve a lot there.

I still see Monty/Gibbs as a split and to push Gibbs up into Top 5 would require Monty missing a decent chunk of the season, hard to bank on that.
I loved Gibbs as a rookie last year and made a mistake of almost getting married to him the way Ditka did w/Ricky Williams
I will not be making the same mistake again this season, in fact depending on where Monty is going, I might be more interested in selecting him.
Looks like very late 6th/early 7th Rd for Monty which is MUCH BETTER VALUE than spending a 1st on Gibbs

That's the Ministry take in late May, could change but it feels like the logical safe take right now.

 

[TheWinz]

Gibbs and Monty both played in the last 9 regular season games, as well as the 3 playoff games. During this time:

Snaps - Gibbs (434), Montgomery (354)
Touches - Montgomery (180), Gibbs (170)

I didn't expect to see Monty getting such a high touch-to-snap ratio compared to Gibbs for the 2nd half of the season and the playoffs.

 

[greenmountaingoat]

Last 8 games wk 14-wk 21 https://www.footballguys.com/stats/game-logs/teams?team=DET&year=2023

Monty- 13.5 carries, 2 tgts per game 4.6 yards per carry (46% snap share)
Gibbs- 11.8 carries, 3.8 tgts per game 4.9 yards per carry (54% snap share)

Who's Gibbs stealing targets from? Unless Goff turns into Derek Carr, I don't see 12 RB targets on this team. They have too much talent in LaPorta, ARSB and hopefully Jamo to put too much emphasis to RB catches.

Thought they both looked good running the ball but Gibbs obviously has home run speed. Given the relative ages and overall talent level, I can see the staff tilting that in Gibbs favor but I do think the relative bargain is Monty. On the other hand, Gibbs upside if he had training wheels on last year and becomes a 15 rush/ 5 target guy is pretty good. That would be a fine RB1 from the turn in the non CMC category ie 18 ppr points per game.

 

[Faust]

Lions want Jahmyr Gibbs 'to go to the next level' as receiver

 

[BassNBrew]

Monty missed 3.5+ games due to injury last year
He had 2 games early in the season with 21 attempts and then 32 at Lambeau Field

David Montgomery 2023 Game Log | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Get David Montgomery 2023 game log for regular season and playoff games on Pro-football-reference.com.

www.pro-football-reference.com

Monty will continue to see 12-15 rush attempts per game IMHO, Gibbs or No Gibbs, Monty has a lot of value still
210/1,015/13 TDs in just 13-14 games last season
250/1,250/16 TDs if he had been able to play all 17 games

Some of this IS DUE to Gibbs being a rookie last season and being brought along slowly.

Jahmyr Gibbs 2023 Game Log | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Get Jahmyr Gibbs 2023 game log for regular season and playoff games on Pro-football-reference.com.

www.pro-football-reference.com

-Gibbs saw a steady diet of about 12-15 carries a game 2nd Half of the season
182/945/11 TDs on the ground also chipped in 52/316, not very dynamic numbers for so many catches, he can improve a lot there.

I still see Monty/Gibbs as a split and to push Gibbs up into Top 5 would require Monty missing a decent chunk of the season, hard to bank on that.
I loved Gibbs as a rookie last year and made a mistake of almost getting married to him the way Ditka did w/Ricky Williams
I will not be making the same mistake again this season, in fact depending on where Monty is going, I might be more interested in selecting him.
Looks like very late 6th/early 7th Rd for Monty which is MUCH BETTER VALUE than spending a 1st on Gibbs

That's the Ministry take in late May, could change but it feels like the logical safe take right now.

From the FBG Survivor League (16 team, TE premium)

I took Gibbs at 1.14 (RB4) and didn't feel great about it. I didn't think Barkley would make it back to me at 2.3, but he did. I have Gibbs a hair above Barkley due to Hurts rushing numbers. I could see my opinion on that changing and Barkley leaping Gibbs. Monty went at pick 5.5 (RB21). I think he'll be all over the map this year. Not only do you have to rank him among Swift, Achane, Kamara, Mixon, etc....you have to like him over the temptations of Waddle, Higgins, DaVonte, DK, etc

 

[jm192]

Pardon the clutter, trying to look at something

Gibbs tochdown length:

21 yards vs Balt
27 yards vs LV
1 yard vs LAC
1 yard vs LAC
2 yards vs Chicago Game 1
12 yards Chicago game 2
9 yards (pass) Denver
12 yards Denver
14 yards Mn game 1
3 yards Mn Game 1
3 Yards Mn game 2

Montgomery missed: Atlanta, Baltimore, Vegas

Gibbs had 9 touchdowns inside the 20. Montgomery played in all of those games.
Gibbs had 5 touchdowns inside the 5. Montgomery played in all of those games.

 

[eighsse2]

Pardon the clutter, trying to look at something

Gibbs tochdown length:

21 yards vs Balt
27 yards vs LV
1 yard vs LAC
1 yard vs LAC
2 yards vs Chicago Game 1
12 yards Chicago game 2
9 yards (pass) Denver
12 yards Denver
14 yards Mn game 1
3 yards Mn Game 1
3 Yards Mn game 2

Montgomery missed: Atlanta, Baltimore, Vegas

Gibbs had 9 touchdowns inside the 20. Montgomery played in all of those games.
Gibbs had 5 touchdowns inside the 5. Montgomery played in all of those games.

Yeah I remember being surprised by how much Gibbs was used near the goalline last year.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Pardon the clutter, trying to look at something

Gibbs tochdown length:

21 yards vs Balt
27 yards vs LV
1 yard vs LAC
1 yard vs LAC
2 yards vs Chicago Game 1
12 yards Chicago game 2
9 yards (pass) Denver
12 yards Denver
14 yards Mn game 1
3 yards Mn Game 1
3 Yards Mn game 2

Montgomery missed: Atlanta, Baltimore, Vegas

Gibbs had 9 touchdowns inside the 20. Montgomery played in all of those games.
Gibbs had 5 touchdowns inside the 5. Montgomery played in all of those games.

Yeah I remember being surprised by how much Gibbs was used near the goalline last year.

Yes, they did a great job of not telegraphing their plays by personal groups.

 

[jm192]

I was really debating between Gibbs and Barkley at RB5. I was thinking Saquon has to worry about Hurts at the GL, but Gibbs had to worry about Montgomery. And while Montgomery will certainly be a factor, it's not the level I was thinking.

I envision even more passing game work--and better efficiency int he passing game--for Gibbs. Barkley may have 50 or 60 more rushes, but Gibbs will close the gap with receptions/receiving yards. And receiving touches are obviously more valuable.

So I think I'm set on Gibbs over Barkley. Now I'm a little torn on Gibbs vs Taylor. I still lean Taylor. I think he's just so talented, and doesn't have any real competition for touches. But I worry Taylor isn't gonna see a ton of passing work either. Richardson will take some GL touchdowns, but he'll also help the offense and open up running lanes. He's probably not taking GL touchdowns anything similar to Hurts.

 

[Dez]

Love me some Gibbs but I will have a hard time clicking on him at the end of the 1st round in drafts this year with Montgomery having such a big role.

 

[menobrown]

I was really debating between Gibbs and Barkley at RB5. I was thinking Saquon has to worry about Hurts at the GL, but Gibbs had to worry about Montgomery. And while Montgomery will certainly be a factor, it's not the level I was thinking.

I envision even more passing game work--and better efficiency int he passing game--for Gibbs. Barkley may have 50 or 60 more rushes, but Gibbs will close the gap with receptions/receiving yards. And receiving touches are obviously more valuable.

So I think I'm set on Gibbs over Barkley. Now I'm a little torn on Gibbs vs Taylor. I still lean Taylor. I think he's just so talented, and doesn't have any real competition for touches. But I worry Taylor isn't gonna see a ton of passing work either. Richardson will take some GL touchdowns, but he'll also help the offense and open up running lanes. He's probably not taking GL touchdowns anything similar to Hurts.

We have shared a similar thought process and seems like that's the consensus now with these 3 Rb's in what amounts to RB tier 3 for redraft for most people.

I've mulled this over a bit and for awhile now have it Gibbs, Taylor and Barkley and have tossed around Taylor vs Gibbs more then moving Barkley up over them.

Regarding Barkely and to not get to deep into other things discussed with him is that I view age/wear and tear as a risk factor. Whether people think he's showed any decline or not he's at an age/usage point where for his position it happens frequently. It's not a one size fits all and some RB's, especially the last two seasons, have performed very well at his age/usage. I do have concerns with Barkley that IMO he's never been an overly cerebal player but that one that relies more on his physical gifts and the smallest decline in athleticsm/juice would be more noticable in him then most RB's. This is NOT a major concern for this season, it's minor, but minor things are what decide close calls for me. It's probably more crucital for Barkely vs Taylor who are simlar to me in a lot of ways including the QB sitiuation/impact and I'd rather take the two year younger RB who due to injuries has seen a lighter workload the past two seasons. It's all enough to push Barkley to RB6 with solid tier drop after him. Would phrase it as I got Barkley closer to RB4 then I do RB7 and would just say again other factors are at play which have been discussed and the age/wear is a small part of the overall projection but I do feel like it's more of a part of the equation for me then most people which is why I'm bringing it up.


Taylor vs Gibbs is a close call but two determing factors for me are ultimate upside and ADP. Just to expand on why ADP matters to me. I do a decent amount of drafts and don't mind going heavy on a player, prefer it on my later round picks actually, but if I can mix it around a little on the top end players, especially if I got them close, I'd prefer that vs seeing so many team's season torpedoed if things go wrong. Taylor is cheaper and far easier to draft in that end of round one/round two, Gibbs is harder to get if you are not inside the top 10 so you just to a lot easier time acquring Taylor so I generaly would prefer to get Gibbs when I can. And also I kind of like the idea of drafting both of them if I can, or one with Barkley, all good with going RB-RB this year if I'm getting two of these top 6, so going Gibbs first enahnces that chance.

But the ultimate upside is the biggest reason I lean Gibbs. There is what we know and what could be. If you tell me everyone stays healthy I don't know how I'd rank them, could even flip them but that's the difference in Gibbs vs the other two, he's a Monty injury away from vaulting into a whole other class IMO. I like Gibbs plenty with Monty and the floor with potential upside but if Monty was not part of the picture due to injury I would be leaning taking Gibbs at 1.1 overall. This may not matter as much in your local leagues, but since almost all of my redraft leagues are natinonal type contests the quest for utlimate upside matters and right now is the biggest reason I put Gibbs over them.

 

[Ilov80s]

Love me some Gibbs but I will have a hard time clicking on him at the end of the 1st round in drafts this year with Montgomery having such a big role.

Gibbs is a superstar. Watch the tape from the 2nd half of the year and tell me he’s not damn near The best RB in the NFL. Guy looks like Jamaal Charles. If you don’t want Jamaal Charles on an elite offense in the late 1st, I’m not sure what game you are playing.

 

[Ilov80s]

He’s a top 2 RB in dynasty and he’s not 2nd.

 

[JoeJoe88]

He’s a top 2 RB in dynasty and he’s not 2nd.

Mostly with you, I absolutely love Gibbs. I think after this season Bijan will re-establish himself as the clear RB1 in most people’s eyes, but Gibbs wills be nipping at his heels.

 

[menobrown]

He’s a top 2 RB in dynasty and he’s not 2nd.

Not that it matters but I've been mulling putting him as the top RB in dynasty.

What it boils down to me is basically no year is more important then the upcoming one and I give Breece and Bijan the edge over him, mainly due to Monty.

But if I'm forecasting 2025 and beyond I'm taking Gibbs.

 

[Ilov80s]

He’s a top 2 RB in dynasty and he’s not 2nd.

Not that it matters but I've been mulling putting him as the top RB in dynasty.

What it boils down to me is basically no year is more important then the upcoming one and I give Breece and Bijan the edge over him, mainly due to Monty.

But if I'm forecasting 2025 and beyond I'm taking Gibbs.

I get that but for me one of those guys plays on an elite run centric offense. Gibbs was actually pretty disappointing last year for receptions. He’s got a much bigger receiving role we haven’t seen yet. If there is a next CMC, it’s Gibbs.

If you look at his best plays from last year you are somehow wowed by how special he is and seeing several times he was one step away from another huge TD. Sky is the limit imo.