Stoneworker
Footballguy
And therefore any opinion that Williams would have responded negatively to the oppty for more workload has no more credence than my assumption he would have responded marginally positively.
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RB Javonte Williams, DEN (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Zyphros
- Start date
Ilov80s
Footballguy
So all we have to judge him is the injury which was very bad, what he had done before the injury, which ain’t much and his college profile which is ok.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
That's correct. But in order to evaluate whether current RB28 represents value for Williams, IMO it's essential to come up with 17-game projections (however flawed in the eyes of others) that enable an apples-to-apples comparison with other RB choices available in that range.
You don't have to follow the Broncos to see that you're wrong. The touch ratio for Williams/Gordon went from 56% to 59% to 51% in the first 3 weeks. That isn't a "trend beginning in the first game" at all, if anything the trend was moving in the "wrong" direction.
Week 4 absolutely started off differently, and I vividly remember saying "finally" when it happened. However, we have no idea how long it would have lasted.
eighsse2
Footballguy
I gotta say that 11:1 beginning to the 4th game is definitely meaningful. I know it's a super small sample. And if it were a "more random" thing we're sampling, like their yards per carry, it wouldn't mean much. But touch distribution, though it doesn't have to be meaningful, when it's 11:1, that's kind of drastic. Could very well have been a sign of things to come. Maybe not.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Gordon's downhill slide and road out of Denver began with his fumble at the goal line in game one. And only gained momentum through the third game when he fumbled two more times. And then a fourth in game 4 replacing Williams.
That's not wrong.
massraider
Footballguy
I don't have any questions about his talent. He looked good right off the bat. And I have no questions about workload if he's healthy.
I have questions with the track record of guys first year back from ACL. I don't expect RB1 numbers, but I think he can be an RB1 down the road.
If there's a Shark move, it's try and get Javonte after a quiet few weeks this year [dynasty]
It was a similar move that was being preached last year with Dobbins. I wonder if that situation will make pulling this off more difficult this year.
massraider
Footballguy
If Dobbins looks great early this year, that would make it tougher.
I just wanted to mention, I don't know where to drop this, but I have a single dynasty roster with Dobbins, Javonte, and Kamara in the backfield, and Nuk Hopkins and Michael Thomas at WR. Just the weirdest team to own right now.
So his downward slide and road out of Denver began in game one, yet his touches and touch % increased to the highest level of the season (by a good amount) in game three. And you think that is a trend beginning in the first game. Sorry, that is very clearly wrong. The snarky "Obviously you don't follow the Broncos" and "It was obvious to anyone paying attention" is just icing on the wrong cake.
I only originally responded to you because you had your numbers wrong. Honestly I expected you to back off from your "extremely conservative" talk once you realized that, instead you acknowledged that they were wrong but just keep digging in your heels and cherry picking numbers to try and fit your narrative. Sorry, but almost no one would agree that your numbers are "extremely conservative", and the data doesn't support that either, but I won't try to change your mind. Everyone is entitled to their own opinions (but not their own facts).
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I'm not sure it's even a "sample".
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Whew. Glad you got that off your chest and now we can all move on.
It's definitely noticeable- how meaningful it was would depend on if it was sustained, unfortunately we weren't able to find out.
Isn't the point of the forums to look for value?
Javonte Williams is a good player. He proved that his rookie year in a timeshare with Gordon. 1220 total yards, 43 receptions and 7 total TDs essentially being behind Gordon that year is what still excites me about him. Year 2 we all thought the coaches would have seen that, but Hackett is on Hue Jackson's level of terrible coaching kept using the less talented player the first 3 weeks who kept fumbling, and than throwing deep balls every play, and throwing 4x in a row at the goaline. It had nothing to do with him not beating out the competition, it had more to do with an incompetent coach who was trying to outsmart everyone. Hackett didn't even come close to using Javonte Williams correctly or effectively, and barely used him at all.
Javonte Williams finally gets the clear nod week 4, and that immediately gets hurt. This is when Hackett was already getting the heat, and when Gordon was fumbling like he was doing it on purpose. This still would not have been that great for Williams because the coaching, and play calling was awful. His numbers had nothing to do with his talent. The arguing over projections is pointless because this is a completely different offense with a much better coach.
The only questions this year that matter are how well do we think Sean Payton can get the Denver offense running with "Captain Bronco (Russel Wilson) ? Is Javonte Williams healthy enough or is it just player speak and will he have set backs? Either way once pre-season rolls around, and if he has any set backs we will know more.
Personally, I love his value currently at the price you can get him for in auction leagues. I like him as a #3/#4 RB because in case he misses a few games, I can bench him safely until he is healthy enough to be relevant. His potential is hard to figure out because he never got the chance to take off
. If his value goes up as we get closer to the season he becomes a lot more risky.
But if he gets back to 100% the guy passes the
test.
looks very similar to our old friend Marshawn Lynch.
Javonte Williams is a good player. He proved that his rookie year in a timeshare with Gordon. 1220 total yards, 43 receptions and 7 total TDs essentially being behind Gordon that year is what still excites me about him. Year 2 we all thought the coaches would have seen that, but Hackett is on Hue Jackson's level of terrible coaching kept using the less talented player the first 3 weeks who kept fumbling, and than throwing deep balls every play, and throwing 4x in a row at the goaline. It had nothing to do with him not beating out the competition, it had more to do with an incompetent coach who was trying to outsmart everyone. Hackett didn't even come close to using Javonte Williams correctly or effectively, and barely used him at all.
Javonte Williams finally gets the clear nod week 4, and that immediately gets hurt. This is when Hackett was already getting the heat, and when Gordon was fumbling like he was doing it on purpose. This still would not have been that great for Williams because the coaching, and play calling was awful. His numbers had nothing to do with his talent. The arguing over projections is pointless because this is a completely different offense with a much better coach.
The only questions this year that matter are how well do we think Sean Payton can get the Denver offense running with "Captain Bronco (Russel Wilson) ? Is Javonte Williams healthy enough or is it just player speak and will he have set backs? Either way once pre-season rolls around, and if he has any set backs we will know more.
Personally, I love his value currently at the price you can get him for in auction leagues. I like him as a #3/#4 RB because in case he misses a few games, I can bench him safely until he is healthy enough to be relevant. His potential is hard to figure out because he never got the chance to take off
. If his value goes up as we get closer to the season he becomes a lot more risky.But if he gets back to 100% the guy passes the
test.looks very similar to our old friend Marshawn Lynch.
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I don't really understand why Dobbins became the expectation, whether it be Javonte Williams, Breece Hall, Kyler Murray, or any other ACL case. Dobbins was a massive outlier in his recovery, I don't know why, maybe he slacked off in rehab, or he's just not a quick healer, but for whatever reason he had a much slower recovery than he should have.
I think all 3 of Williams, Hall, and Murray will beat Dobbins timeline by quite a bit. Personally, I think the RBs will be ready for week 1, and Murray should miss no more than a month, with a shot of being ready week 1.
All 3 of these guys are solid targets for dynasty in my opinion.
If I am remembering correctly, I believe that Dobbins had much more damage to his knee and that was the driving force for the longer rehab/slower recovery. Javonte was rumored to have a similar extent of damage which is why I believe those two are linked closer than most. At least that is my reasoning for my comments.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
More bad news for the 2023 Javonte haters...
According to NFL Network’s James Palmer, Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams will NOT start training camp on the PUP. It has been trending this way since he returned for the start of OTA’s but still promising news for the Broncos running back.
www.milehighreport.com
According to NFL Network’s James Palmer, Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams will NOT start training camp on the PUP. It has been trending this way since he returned for the start of OTA’s but still promising news for the Broncos running back.
Report: Running back Javonte Williams will not start training camp on the PUP
It has been trending this way, but still, exciting and promising news for the Broncos running back.
www.milehighreport.com
massraider
Footballguy
Oh, I think we call that a step in the right direction.
Was always the most likely scenario.More bad news for the 2023 Javonte haters...
According to NFL Network’s James Palmer, Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams will NOT start training camp on the PUP. It has been trending this way since he returned for the start of OTA’s but still promising news for the Broncos running back.
Report: Running back Javonte Williams will not start training camp on the PUP
It has been trending this way, but still, exciting and promising news for the Broncos running back.
ETA: I'm pretty confident taking Javonte in round 6 right now, in the areas of guys like Lawrence, Aiyuk, and Hockenson, and above RBs like Akers, White, and Montgomery. Its very possible he's in the best offense of any of those RBs and getting more work than Montgomery.
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Stoneworker
Footballguy
And also the most likely scenario that's he'll be on a pitch count to start the season?Was always the most likely scenario.More bad news for the 2023 Javonte haters...
According to NFL Network’s James Palmer, Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams will NOT start training camp on the PUP. It has been trending this way since he returned for the start of OTA’s but still promising news for the Broncos running back.
Report: Running back Javonte Williams will not start training camp on the PUP
It has been trending this way, but still, exciting and promising news for the Broncos running back.
ETA: I'm pretty confident taking Javonte in round 6 right now, in the areas of guys like Lawrence, Aiyuk, and Hockenson, and above RBs like Akers, White, and Montgomery. Its very possible he's in the best offense of any of those RBs and getting more work than Montgomery.
Assuming no setbacks, IMO he'll be limited to 10-12 touches at least until week 9 (Denver's bye).
Maybe. I'm at about the 13-15 range for touches per game, but I think Denver's offense should be more efficient this year under Payton.And also the most likely scenario that's he'll be on a pitch count to start the season?Was always the most likely scenario.More bad news for the 2023 Javonte haters...
According to NFL Network’s James Palmer, Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams will NOT start training camp on the PUP. It has been trending this way since he returned for the start of OTA’s but still promising news for the Broncos running back.
Report: Running back Javonte Williams will not start training camp on the PUP
It has been trending this way, but still, exciting and promising news for the Broncos running back.
ETA: I'm pretty confident taking Javonte in round 6 right now, in the areas of guys like Lawrence, Aiyuk, and Hockenson, and above RBs like Akers, White, and Montgomery. Its very possible he's in the best offense of any of those RBs and getting more work than Montgomery.
Assuming no setbacks, IMO he'll be limited to 10-12 touches at least until week 9 (Denver's bye).
Why week 9? I know its their bye week, but what significance does that have for Williams timeline?
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Just a WAG for my own purposes.Maybe. I'm at about the 13-15 range for touches per game, but I think Denver's offense should be more efficient this year under Payton.And also the most likely scenario that's he'll be on a pitch count to start the season?Was always the most likely scenario.More bad news for the 2023 Javonte haters...
According to NFL Network’s James Palmer, Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams will NOT start training camp on the PUP. It has been trending this way since he returned for the start of OTA’s but still promising news for the Broncos running back.
Report: Running back Javonte Williams will not start training camp on the PUP
It has been trending this way, but still, exciting and promising news for the Broncos running back.
ETA: I'm pretty confident taking Javonte in round 6 right now, in the areas of guys like Lawrence, Aiyuk, and Hockenson, and above RBs like Akers, White, and Montgomery. Its very possible he's in the best offense of any of those RBs and getting more work than Montgomery.
Assuming no setbacks, IMO he'll be limited to 10-12 touches at least until week 9 (Denver's bye).
Why week 9? I know its their bye week, but what significance does that have for Williams timeline?
I figure there's likely to be periodic episodes of swelling and soreness once he starts stressing it fully during the regular season. The medical staff will likely want to manage that. Coming out of a midseason bye everyone should know whether he's fully healthy and can handle a more typical load for the balance of the season.
The Denver Nuggets just did something similar very successfully with Jamal Murray during his ACL recovery limiting his minutes until after the All-Star break, so I'm admittedly a little biased having just witnessed that.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Sean Payton comments on Javonte Williams' training camp workload plan
According to Broncos beat writer Mike Klis, JW took the first play (a pitchout) on the first snap of 11-on-11 drills (held out of 11's during OTA's.). So not unreasonable to infer Payton still views him as the starter (as stated in the spring).
According to Broncos beat writer Mike Klis, JW took the first play (a pitchout) on the first snap of 11-on-11 drills (held out of 11's during OTA's.). So not unreasonable to infer Payton still views him as the starter (as stated in the spring).
Tanner9919
Footballguy
good news thats all you can really hope for.
9 — The number of seasons Payton’s Saints teams finished with a top-five scoring offense.
10 — The number of seasons Payton’s Saints finished with a top-five total offense, including six seasons where New Orleans led the NFL.
source nola.com
you want a piece of this offense and in particular this run game
9 — The number of seasons Payton’s Saints teams finished with a top-five scoring offense.
10 — The number of seasons Payton’s Saints finished with a top-five total offense, including six seasons where New Orleans led the NFL.
source nola.com
you want a piece of this offense and in particular this run game
14- The number of seasons Payton's Saints teams had Drew Brees at QB
1- The number of seasons Payton's Saints teams did not have Drew Brees at QB, and they finished 28th in total offense and 19th in scoring offense.
I expect the Broncos offense to improve some (it's hard to be much worse) but I would not go in expecting it to be anywhere near as good as those Brees offenses were.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
0 - Number of games All-Pro WR Michael Thomas played on Payton's 2021 Saints team that did not have Drew Brees at QB
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Stoneworker
Footballguy
0 - Number of games All-Pro WR Michael Thomas will play on Payton's 2023 Broncos team that will not have Drew Brees at QB
Stoneworker
Footballguy
So now it's Thomas and not Brees that is the sole reason for Payton's offensive success? Lol. Ok. Keep changing the story.
I can't tell if you're serious of if this is terrible schtick but no, that's clearly not what I'm saying at all. Neither is the "sole" reason but Brees is a much, much larger part of it. I was just pointing out that your attempt to change the story is completely irrelevant since Thomas isn't playing in this Denver offense either. Can't make this stuff up.
goose_egged
Footballguy
I want to believe but I can't shake the feeling that this miraculous recovery is too good to be true
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Listen to this Ortho specialist Stephania Bell talking Javonte Williams. Start listening at 14:00 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5UEmy3u6Lk&ab_channel=EstablishTheRun
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Stoneworker
Footballguy
I listened. What exactly is someone supposed to take away from her comments?
"This ortho specialist" aka Stephania Bell lol
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Why are you laughing at that? She has a lot of knowledge and to my understanding has experience in the field. Maybe I'm wrong, then laugh away.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Don't shoot the messenger. If you don't like what she says, OK. Take from it what you will.
massraider
Footballguy
I do think it's fair that she said certain things cannot be rushed.
I'm optimistic about Javonte and is all good news now, but tendons, ligaments, scar tissue, that stuff happens at its own time, you cannot train repairs faster. It's a legit concern. Guys have gotten reinjured coming back quick.
I really didn't like Levitan's intro, where he lists all the good news we have heard, and dismisses it with a, yeah, we'll see. Kind of showed you where the interview was gonna go.
But it doesn't mean she is wrong. I would love to see the Broncos rest him more during camp.
But now the talk is shifting. A month ago: no one believed the good news. Now people will start wondering if the Broncos are rushing him back.
Love it, personally.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
massraider
Footballguy
I like Bell much more than the Twitter docs that get quoted. They are, as far as I can tell, a bunch of donkeys
Stoneworker
Footballguy
All of this is consistent with the Broncos' stated plan. Manage reps, etc.
Today is supposed to be a day off after no limitations the first two days in pads.
Even Payton said recently that he was aware that with JW's type of injury the healing process is an ongoing process into Year Two.
I just fail to see what Bell said that was noteworthy or that anyone on the same Broncos' staff that has managed his ahead-of-schedule recovery doesn't already know.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
It's not that I don't like it, it's just that she's never examined him and is not involved in his recovery so she is, at best, regurgitating third-hand generic knowledge.
I was laughing because from your post I was expecting some random "ortho specialist" not someone as well-known as Stephania Bell.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I'll change my post to mention her by name
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Regarding concerns about the pace of Williams' recovery...
Payton detailed his outlook for Williams on [July 28].
“Any player who had a significant injury a year ago—[Vice President of Player Health and Performance] Beau [Lowery] and I will sit down, and we’ll have a Group 1," Payton said. "That would be someone like [Javonte]. We’ll have days on, limited days, and days off. There’s a process. It won’t only be with him. There will be a handful of those players....[Williams] would fall into that first group of a planned schedule as he’s recovering from a major surgery. We’re pleased, obviously, with his progress. We felt really good about it in the spring, and he put the work in.”
Payton detailed his outlook for Williams on [July 28].
“Any player who had a significant injury a year ago—[Vice President of Player Health and Performance] Beau [Lowery] and I will sit down, and we’ll have a Group 1," Payton said. "That would be someone like [Javonte]. We’ll have days on, limited days, and days off. There’s a process. It won’t only be with him. There will be a handful of those players....[Williams] would fall into that first group of a planned schedule as he’s recovering from a major surgery. We’re pleased, obviously, with his progress. We felt really good about it in the spring, and he put the work in.”
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Editorial comments from the same SI article...
Just because Williams has got clearance to be a full participant in camp out of the gates doesn't dictate that the Broncos' key decision-makers will take any unnecessary risks. Head coach Sean Payton's many years spent in the NFL have taught him to listen to the input of his medical team, which has allowed the Broncos to construct a roll-out schedule that fits a recovering player of Williams' importance.
Just because Williams has got clearance to be a full participant in camp out of the gates doesn't dictate that the Broncos' key decision-makers will take any unnecessary risks. Head coach Sean Payton's many years spent in the NFL have taught him to listen to the input of his medical team, which has allowed the Broncos to construct a roll-out schedule that fits a recovering player of Williams' importance.
