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RB Joe Mixon, HOU (1 Viewer)

Started Collins over him in one and have Williams in over him at the moment in my other. Unless I hear he's going to get a full load I'll probably roll out Williams this week.

 
Is there a reason besides being injury prone to avoid trading for Mixon on a buy low basis because of his tremendous upside. Basically he's dropped to a middling RB 2 from a solid RB 1. Or does he carry the injury with him perhaps all year, and risk the out status again. Mixon is trending to play this week but I would think limited in capacity to see how it goes. I don't even like rooting for Cincinnati yet with Burrow and all his targets, Cinci can hang and looks like a team with potential. I have Higgins in one league and Boyd as bench and spot start in another.

 
travdogg said:
Dead zone is a make believe concept. Plenty of solid RBs in that so-called zone. 
Click to expand...


This seems like a reasonable position.

RBs with an ADP between Rounds 3-6 in 2021:

  • CEH RB14 / actual RB21
  • Monty RB15 / actual RB11 (see! a good RB in the Dead Zone)
  • Carson RB16 / RB22
  • Robinson RB17 / RB9 (I don't believe in the RBDZ)
  • Jacobs RB18 / RB46
  • Swift RB19 / RB6 (poster child for truthers)
  • Sanders RB20 / RB32
  • Gaskin RB21 / RB38
  • Davis RB22 / RB27
  • Hunt RB23 / RB8 (I told you there's nothing to that theory)
  • Henderson RB 24 / RB7
  • Javonte RB25 / RB35 (it's early)
  • Edmonds RB26 / RB12
  • Edwards RB27 / IR out for season
  • Mostert RB28 / IR out for season
  • D Harris RB29 / RB37
11/16 underperforming their ADP so far.

________________________

from Establish the Run back in May (it sort of snowballed and rippled through the FF community after Jack Miller wrote about it):

PLAYER WIN RATE DATA AGREES

Another way to look at this is using player win rate data. Remember, the expected win rate for any player is 8.3% (100 percentage points divided by 12 teams per league). WRs picked in Rounds 3-6 have averaged an above-expectation win rate in six consecutive seasons. RBs picked in that area have been below-expectation for six straight years. It doesn’t get much easier than that: One group has been above-average six times in a row, while the other has been dependably below-average.

Year RB Average Win Rate / WR Average Win Rate

2015 8.1% 9.1%

2016 8.1% 8.5%

2017 8.1% 8.9%

2018 6.9% 9.2%

2019 7.8% 9.1%

2020 7.7% 8.7%

It’s fun to think you can consistently pick the right players (i.e. identify the trend-breakers), but that’s much easier said than done. Just know that RBs in Rounds 3-6 have historically been a -EV bet, whereas WRs have been rock-solid.

WHEN SHOULD I PICK AN RB?

Of course, you have to pick RBs at some point. Taking a high-end RB (or two) in the first two rounds sets your team up nicely, but that’s not always possible. Thankfully, RBs in Rounds 7-10 have also performed admirably since 2015. While the trend isn’t as obvious as it is in Rounds 3-6, RBs in that range have been at least average in four of the last six seasons. Their WR counterparts haven’t been bad, but they haven’t flashed the same upside.

Year RB Average Win Rate / WR Average Win Rate

2015 10.9% 7.3%

2016 8.3% 8.3%

2017 7.9% 8.5%

2018 9.6% 7.7%

2019 9.4% 8.7%

2020 7.6% 8.3%

You can see in the first graph that RB scoring is relatively flat from Round ~4 onward, so it makes sense that win rates are higher in Rounds 7-10. Why spend a Round 4 pick on an RB when you can get comparable production 3-5 rounds later?

________________________

I think it's fine as a general guideline. If it's truly BPA, then maybe starting your draft RB-RB, pivoting to WRs/TEs rounds 3-6, then generally going back to RB rounds 7-10 (along with taking a QB if you haven't already.

Still, I "broke" the guidelines several times in my main league. No regrets I took Swift and Javonte in the RBDZ, nor do I regret taking Sutton and Cooks when I was supposed to be focused on RBs. It is, at best, a very general guideline with a host of caveats.

________________________

BACK ON TOPIC

Barring any bad news before kickoff, I'm rolling with Joe today. Anybody with me?

 
Last edited by a moderator:
BobbyLayne said:
This seems like a reasonable position.

RBs with an ADP between Rounds 3-6 in 2021:

  • CEH RB14 / actual RB21
  • Monty RB15 / actual RB11 (see! a good RB in the Dead Zone)
  • Carson RB16 / RB22
  • Robinson RB17 / RB9 (I don't believe in the RBDZ)
  • Jacobs RB18 / RB46
  • Swift RB19 / RB6 (poster child for truthers)
  • Sanders RB20 / RB32
  • Gaskin RB21 / RB38
  • Davis RB22 / RB27
  • Hunt RB23 / RB8 (I told you there's nothing to that theory)
  • Henderson RB 24 / RB7
  • Javonte RB25 / RB35 (it's early)
  • Edmonds RB26 / RB12
  • Edwards RB27 / IR out for season
  • Mostert RB28 / IR out for season
  • D Harris RB29 / RB37
11/16 underperforming their ADP so far.

________________________

from Establish the Run back in May (it sort of snowballed and rippled through the FF community after Jack Miller wrote about it):

PLAYER WIN RATE DATA AGREES

Another way to look at this is using player win rate data. Remember, the expected win rate for any player is 8.3% (100 percentage points divided by 12 teams per league). WRs picked in Rounds 3-6 have averaged an above-expectation win rate in six consecutive seasons. RBs picked in that area have been below-expectation for six straight years. It doesn’t get much easier than that: One group has been above-average six times in a row, while the other has been dependably below-average.

Year RB Average Win Rate / WR Average Win Rate

2015 8.1% 9.1%

2016 8.1% 8.5%

2017 8.1% 8.9%

2018 6.9% 9.2%

2019 7.8% 9.1%

2020 7.7% 8.7%

It’s fun to think you can consistently pick the right players (i.e. identify the trend-breakers), but that’s much easier said than done. Just know that RBs in Rounds 3-6 have historically been a -EV bet, whereas WRs have been rock-solid.

WHEN SHOULD I PICK AN RB?

Of course, you have to pick RBs at some point. Taking a high-end RB (or two) in the first two rounds sets your team up nicely, but that’s not always possible. Thankfully, RBs in Rounds 7-10 have also performed admirably since 2015. While the trend isn’t as obvious as it is in Rounds 3-6, RBs in that range have been at least average in four of the last six seasons. Their WR counterparts haven’t been bad, but they haven’t flashed the same upside.

Year RB Average Win Rate / WR Average Win Rate

2015 10.9% 7.3%

2016 8.3% 8.3%

2017 7.9% 8.5%

2018 9.6% 7.7%

2019 9.4% 8.7%

2020 7.6% 8.3%

You can see in the first graph that RB scoring is relatively flat from Round ~4 onward, so it makes sense that win rates are higher in Rounds 7-10. Why spend a Round 4 pick on an RB when you can get comparable production 3-5 rounds later?

________________________

I think it's fine as a general guideline. If it's truly BPA, then maybe starting your draft RB-RB, pivoting to WRs/TEs rounds 3-6, then generally going back to RB rounds 7-10 (along with taking a QB if you haven't already.

Still, I "broke" the guidelines several times in my main league. No regrets I took Swift and Javonte in the RBDZ, nor do I regret taking Sutton and Cooks when I was supposed to be focused on RBs. It is, at best, a very general guideline with a host of caveats.

________________________
Click to expand...
not sure that makes them “dead zone RB” or just “RB taken later because  they’re not as good as RB taken earlier” though. 

BobbyLayne said:
BACK ON TOPIC

Barring any bad news before kickoff, I'm rolling with Joe today. Anybody with me?
Click to expand...
I’ve got him in my lineup for now. If he plays I’m playing him. 65% of Mixon is probably as good as 100% of Chubba Hubbard or Javonte vs PIT

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
not sure that makes them “dead zone RB” or just “RB taken later because  they’re not as good as RB taken earlier” though. 
Click to expand...


nowhere in that post was I comparing RBs taken later with RBs taken earlier.

it's just looking at whether they have outperformed their ADP YTD, which is a relative, siding scale.

the bar is not that they have to be an RB1, it's whether they are a borderline RB2/Flex.

68.75% is not insignificant, and while you can always argue sample size, the data is consistent with prior years.

 
BobbyLayne said:
nowhere in that post was I comparing RBs taken later with RBs taken earlier.

it's just looking at whether they have outperformed their ADP YTD, which is a relative, siding scale.

the bar is not that they have to be an RB1, it's whether they are a borderline RB2/Flex.

68.75% is not insignificant, and while you can always argue sample size, the data is consistent with prior years.
Click to expand...
If you compare the entire RB draft  to ADP like you did here, I bet you would get a similar hit rate for all of them. It's all a dead zone. RB is a rough position to own. 

 
BobbyLayne said:
nowhere in that post was I comparing RBs taken later with RBs taken earlier.

it's just looking at whether they have outperformed their ADP YTD, which is a relative, siding scale.

the bar is not that they have to be an RB1, it's whether they are a borderline RB2/Flex.

68.75% is not insignificant, and while you can always argue sample size, the data is consistent with prior years.
Click to expand...
All true. I never said they had to be RB1s. 

im just kinda tired of the phrase. My point was more of a chicken and the egg thing. If they were better players and/or in better situations they probably would have been taken earlier. 

Robinson, Moss & Henderson all seem to be doing well. And it’s only week 5, so I’m not ready to call anything definitive on any of them, especially a guy like JaWill, who’s been statistically better than Gordon save for one long Gordon TD run. If Gordon goes down or JaWill starts seeing 60+% of touches in the 2nd half, he’s probably gonna be another “dead zone” win for 2021. 

looking back to 2020, I recall that quite a few of the RB taken in rounds 1-2 were busts as well, no?

Anyway, just saw an update that Mixon is  expected to play, so go us! :pickle:

 
candian fantasy guy said:
If you compare the entire RB draft  to ADP like you did here, I bet you would get a similar hit rate for all of them. It's all a dead zone. RB is a rough position to own. 
Click to expand...
Exactly. There are successes and failures in every round at RB. It’s a hard position to rank, predict or assess risk for. Many of the DZ guys are RBBC (Edmonds/JaWill, and preseason Robinson when ETN was healthy, etc).

Anyway, this is the Mixon topic & IMO 4 weeks is too small a sample size to put a bow on anything definitely. 

 
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Peak said:
Starting ZMoss over Mixon today.  I want to see if Mixon can make it through the game in tact.
Click to expand...
Also the possibility that this is gamesmanship by a cagey HC. 

When Mixon was hurt, they showed him on the sidelines stretching his foot against the wall, and walking/limping around on it trying to get it loose. It certainly didn’t have the look of a multi-week or even significant injury. I rewatched the play & couldn’t really tell when he tweaked it. 

It really didn’t look too bad. I realize ankles can swell after the game, so it could have been worse than it looked, but I thought reports of a “high ankle” were ridiculous in that light. 

A wise shark once told me “coaches lie”. That could certainly be the case here. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
candian fantasy guy said:
If you compare the entire RB draft  to ADP like you did here, I bet you would get a similar hit rate for all of them. It's all a dead zone. RB is a rough position to own. 
Click to expand...


Probably some truth in there as in an average year half of the previous year's Top Ten doesn't repeat. But I don't think the hit rate is quite as dire as RB2/RB3 on a relative basis.

Let's see about this year. RB1s drafted in first two rounds (we''ll go up to RB13):

  • CMC drafted RB1 / actual RB3
  • Cook RB2 / RB16
  • Kamara RB3 / RB17
  • KING Henry RB4 / RB1
  • Zeke RB5 / RB6
  • Jones RB6 / RB5
  • Barkley RB7 / RB11
  • Ekeler RB8 / RB2
Of the Top 8, six have been an RB1 so far this year, two have been RB2.

That's pretty much what has happened the last 5 years. RBs 1-6 generally have hit around 75% of the time.

As an aside to the above (CMC and Cook are hurt, and Barkley isn't quite himself yet) - while we'd all love our RB1s to be 100% healthy, but in 2020, only 6 of the Top 30 played 16G. Henry was the only one of those five who was a starter (Hunt, McKissic, Hines, Edmonds, Gio.)

bottom 5 of this cohort:

  • Taylor RB9 / RB23
  • Chubb RB10 / RB15
  • Harris RB11 / RB4
  • Gibson RB12 / RB20
  • Mixon RB13 / RB18
Yikes, eh?

Lots of disappointment across the board, with only 4 of the first 13 in ADP exceeding their draft position.

OTOH, no one has performed worse than RB2. I guess you could make the argument there have been no unmitigated disastersb (Cook, Kamara, Taylor & Gibson managers might disagree)- though I might change that assessment if we get two months of Mixon being "close to returning" or CMC/Cook injuries mounting or Alvin Kamara hitting below his career average of 14.5 TDs /season. Otherwise, presuming health, and taking into account there are ebbs and flows to any season, it doesn't seem to be beyond the realm of possibility any of these guys finish Top 13. Not all of them will of course, but on the whole the hit rate seems to be OK.

Historical data supports that, but you're welcome to believe otherwise. 

 
knowledge dropper said:
I don’t trust the situation today.  Injury and gameflow are working against him. 
Click to expand...
I'm not sure game flow is. Green Bay hasn't looked like some juggernaut this season, they beat 2 bad teams in Detroit and Pittsburgh, won a 50-50 game against SF. Plus, they are missing their 2 best defenders, and their best OL. 

I don't think its crazy to suggest the Bengals might win this game.

 
travdogg said:
I don't think its crazy to suggest the Bengals might win this game.
Click to expand...
I think Cin will win, or at least put up a good fight.  But with Haired out for GB, I think Burrow will be air it out more than he will hand it off.  That's what I took from the Game Flow comment 

 
If Mixon is indeed playing, I think he's a tough sit. The Packers defense kinda sucks on all levels. This should be a high scoring game. Even if Mixon is in more of a timeshare, I think 70 yards and 2 TDs is on the table. I'd probably rank Mixon around RB20 or so.

 
travdogg said:
I'm not sure game flow is. Green Bay hasn't looked like some juggernaut this season, they beat 2 bad teams in Detroit and Pittsburgh, won a 50-50 game against SF. Plus, they are missing their 2 best defenders, and their best OL. 

I don't think its crazy to suggest the Bengals might win this game.
Click to expand...
I think the Bengals can win, but I fully expect them to air it out.  

 
I'm waiting for warmups to make the call, but I have Swift as my alternate.

Actually, Swift is my primary, unless the reports are glowing re Mixon from warmups.

I think starting Perine today would be crazy unless Mixon is confirmed out.

:2cents:

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Zasada said:
I'm waiting for warmups to make the call, but I have Swift as my alternate.

Actually, Swift is my primary, unless the reports are glowing re Mixon from warmups.

I think starting Perine today would be crazy unless Mixon is confirmed out.

:2cents:
Click to expand...


I'm fortunate to be LOADED in the one league I have Mixon.  (Mixon, Perine, Dalvin Cook, Alex Mattison, Alex Collins, Javonte Williams, Melvin Gordon ,Myles Gaskin,  Gio Bernard, Malcolm Brown).

It is a start 3WRs, 10 teamer. .5 PPR , 8 bench spots

Just to gauge how I'm seeing it, I won't be starting Mixon either. Nor will I start Perine.    I started Collins already due to all the questionable/murkiness in my stable.  In my other RB slot I'm likely starting MATTISON. (Maybe the Vikes won't need to run Cook a bunch vs the Lions to win,) so I'm firing up Mattison, and likely JAVONTE WILLIAMS at flex.    (Melvin Gordon has been limited this week too)

I'm actually hoping there is a bit more clarity from the Vikes regarding Cook/Mattison before kickoff.

 TZM

 
What I told Subscribers:

Here's where I am on Bengals RB Joe Mixon. I'd been pessimistic for most of the week as the team kept pushing deadlines back. Finally, Mixon was able to work on Saturday but still the mood seemed iffy. This morning, the mood has increasingly been more optimistic. From "Expected to play but may not be 100%" to just recently, long-time Bengals insider Geoff Hobson reporting "he thinks Joe Mixon will get pretty darn close to his normal work load today." Every fantasy team is obviously different and start-sit decisions are based on the options you have on your team. But this puts Mixon for us up to the RB20-RB25 range. Clearly, there is risk here. But you don't pay us to waffle and this is where we currently see Mixon.
Click to expand...

 
Not touching him today. Had Hunt locked and loaded ahead of him but also had Mattison so got multiple choices that should be better than him. I'm not sure how far down the pecking order of RB's I'd go before I considered starting him but I'd have to be pretty desperate

 
I have a choice of 2 out of 3 between gibson, mixon and hollywood so I'm rolling mixon and hollywood because I hate the matchup with NO and gibson sounds to be more banged up than mixon given the reports

 
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