msudaisy26
Footballguy
Are you basing this off the 1st game? Many of teams have run over the Lions through the years.
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RB Le'Veon Bell, FA - 9.6.21 Workout For Baltimore (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Eminence
- Start date
The Steelers gave Bell 833 touches the last two years, and twice had the opportunity to give him an acceptable long-term contract. They didn't do so.
At what point is he allowed to say "I need to protect myself so that I can get that 1 big contract, and it's clear the Steelers aren't going to give it to me"?
Does he have to go three straight years getting 400 touches? At what point is he allowed to put his own future ahead of the team's present?
Doug B
Footballguy
You've misunderstood me completely.
My answer to the question in red above: "He's allowed to say 'I need to protect myself for that one big contract' from Day One."
I wasn't saying "Bell is wrong to hold out now!" I was saying "I don't understand why the calculus was different going into 2017 versus 2018."
Heavy use in 2016, presumably, was already a threat to him getting to his next contract. So he delayed his eventual holdout for 12 months for what reason?
OK, I see. Sorry.
Perhaps he was giving them the benefit of the doubt last year: trusting that if he busted his ### for the team, they'd reward him? When they chose to make him a below-value offer, he realized that they weren't interested in compensating him fairly (for what he would do AND what he has done), he chose to put himself ahead of the team (as they'd clearly put the team's interests ahead of his).
Doug B
Footballguy
TheFanatic
Footballguy
Posted earlier. These are teams with the room to sign Bell easily. Teams with far less cap space could sign him too, it would just be trickier.
Godsbrother
Footballguy
Give me a break. Bell and his agent knew (or should have known) the Steelers were not going to give him a contract with a huge guarantee. Bell had 3 options: 1) negotiate and sign a long term contract with the Steelers, 2) sign the franchise tag and report week 1 for a guaranteed $14.5 million or 3) hold out up to 10 weeks and then report.
Bell chose option 3 which is what he feels is best. That's fine but don't try to paint him as some kind of martyr. It is a business and both the Steelers and Bell are doing what they think is in their best interest. Nothing wrong with that...
That's a false choice.
He could have the $10M AND the $40M, and not alienate anyone. Just has to avoid serious injury.
Or he could forego the $10M, then get a serious injury week 11-17, and miss out on the $40M too.
The situation is way more complex than you're painting it.
shadyridr
Footballguy
Martyr? The question posed was "what's different this year?" (paraphrasing)
Bell probably thought last year "I'll bust my ###, they'll give me a contract." After he busted his ###, and they didn't offer him a contract he thought was fair, then LAR & ARI give Gurley and DJ contracts that show the Steelers were lowballing him, AND Mack was able to stay away and force a trade/new contract, he made a different decision than the one he made last year.
If your boss expects you to work your ### off, and you work your ### off, then he offers you less than what you are worth, you're probably less likely to work your ### off again. Not sure how anyone is a martyr.
Donkey Derp
Footballguy
He has also had the luxury of playing in a great situation for RBs: top tier OL, high powered offense, and Steelers rarely use a committee approach. Someone posted the fantasy points for Bell and his replacements and they weren't that much different. RBs are quite easy to replace.
Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
Some of the teams that might have interest in him may satisfy their interest if Love and or Taylor come out next spring. They would be younger, and cheaper, and appear quite dynamic, potentially.
For me, my interest is in getting as much run as I can right now from Conner. This situation has temporarily inured to my benefit.
I think the math is really quite ambiguous and depends heavily on some key assumptions, namely how much guaranteed $$$ is at stake and what the probability of various injury severities are.
Here's the exercise I did.
First I assumed there is $40M guaranteed on his next contract at stake.
Then I applied some probabilities to various injury outcomes, and computed the expected cost associated with each category of injury:
1) Catastrophic, career-ending injury. 1% probability in any given week. Expected cost is $40M * 1.0 * 1% = $400K
2) Serious, season-ending injury. 2% probability in any given week, and would cost him half of the $40M next offseason. Expected Cost is $40M * 0.5 * 2% = $400K
3) Minor, not-season-ending injury. 5% probability, and cost him 10% of the $40M. Expected Cost is $40M * 0.1 * 5% = $200K
4) No injury, just wear and tear from 25-30 touches. 92% probability, and cost of 1% of the $40M. Expected Cost is $40M * 0.01 * 92% = $368K
So under these assumptions, each week he puts himself out there he's lowering his expected next contract by $1.368M. Since $1.368 > $855K, then he's right to be sitting out. Naturally, small tweaks to the assumptions could tip things the other way.
Anyway, that's the math I would be doing on this if I was Bell or his agent.
I've heard this repeated here more than once and I don't buy it. I do think miles matter and I do think Bell would agree or at a minimum he'd agree that NFL teams think it matters. No reason to skip games otherwise because I'm thinking if injury was his concern that $1.7 M he just lost would have been more then enough to buy him a nice insurance policy.
Not that we got to think to hard on this, his agent already said overuse was a concern.
Godsbrother
Footballguy
The Steelers thought their offer what was he was worth, Bell disagrees. Just because I work my ### off and think I am worth $X dollars doesn't mean my boss thinks so. The Steelers never said to LeVeon "hey work your ### off and we will give you a huge guaranteed contract" and then later reneged.
Bell and his agent knew the Steelers never give out huge guaranteed contracts when they began negotiations last year. If that was the reason why he busted his ### off then he was not thinking clearly.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I think that they do matter of course. It only seems logical that wear and tear on anything (i.e. machinery) is going to lead once step closer to a breakdown.
What he’s maybe referring to is the fact that many of the backs that did survive the 30 year old threshold with continued success were heavy workload backs like Curtis Martin, LT2, Emmitt Smith, Frank Gore, Adrian Peterson - in other words for elite backs age gets to them before workloads. And on the flip side back up type RBs age out of the league without ever seeing heavy workloads. There’s very few examples of guys surviving past 30 and then excelling because they were used lightly in their 20s, maybe Thomas Jones fits this bill. But that’s because those backs that weren’t good enough to see heavy workloads in their 20s aren’t good enough to stick around.
What this shows however is that either way it’s not an exact science.
Obviously Bell feels the perception at least is teams will not offer as much for a “worn down” RB.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
Someone did a study on this a few years ago here on FBG (Drinen, maybe), and every year we have to pull it up because every year this myth is perpetuiated. The study basically showed that guys that had the miles lasted longer than the guys that didn't which is why a guy like LT plays forever and a guy like Priest Holmes, a late bloomer, didn't play till he was 37 which should be possible based on the miles theory.
Those with the miles, know better how to take care of their bodies and handle the abuse and play longer.
Also, just because a guy starts later (ala Priest Holmes) doesn't mean he will play longer because of less miles. Age is what slows guys down, not miles. At 34, guys don't recover as quickly from the daily grind in the NFL like a guy who's 24.
Age wins every time, not miles.
If you work your ### off, and your boss doesn't pay you what you are worth, are you as willing to continue to work your ### off?
In any event, maybe Bell wasn't thinking clearly last year, and is now. Irregardless, that seems to be what has changed: his willingness to put his body on the line for a franchise that won't compensate him fairly for that. The compensation that Gurley and DJ got probably reinforced that decision.
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ChromeWeasel
Footballguy
Steelers latest offer is the franchise tag, which is what the whole NFLPA agrees that Bell is worth. Bell doesn't want the $15 million, so he's holding out for more.
That's only thinking clearly on Bell's part if he ends up making more money in the long run because of it. As long as Conner is doing well, it weakens Bell's case that he's worth more than what has already been offered. In the meantime this is also a zero-sum game. Every dollar he gets paid over the average for a talented running back is money that can't go toward another talented player. And if he's correct that the Steelers can't win without him, his holdout costs his teammates a chance at a Superbowl.
Guys like Tom Brady have gotten paid without squeezing the franchise for every penny they could get. Bell has the right to hold out if he wants to, but it's 100% for selfish reasons.
Godsbrother
Footballguy
And that's fine but you keep saying the Steelers aren't paying him what he was worth. The Steelers felt that Bell was worth $14.5 million this season. Bell thinks he is worth more so he is holding out. When he does report he should give it his best effort because that is his job and it is the right thing to do. Next year he'll be free to find out what someone else thinks he is worth.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
msudaisy26
Footballguy
brewer
Footballguy
Also worth noting that what David Johnson got was not out of line with what the Steelers offered Bell in the first place.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
btemp
Footballguy
There's some silly talk here.
1) David Johnson, like Aaron Rodgers, got a below-market deal because he had two years left on his contract. Teams use that leverage (understandably) to get cheaper deals. They say: You can risk playing on your contract for two years and get a big pay day, or you can take less money but get it now.
In contract, Bell will not get franchised next year. The Steelers have no way to keep him without paying him a contract he likes (unlike Johnson or Gurley or Rodgers). He's trying to use that leverage, good for him. Based on both his skillset and leverage he should break the bank for the RB position.
2) This whole "if my boss..." or "at my work" talk is stupid. This isn't McDonalds, this is the NFL. The labour rules and leverage points are completely different.
For example, you can quit your job and work for 50 other firms. The NFL is a monopoly - its them or no one. And as we all know, there's lots of collusion and other shenanigans in the NFL.
3) The irony is that teams cut players all the time before their contracts expire. But when a player wants to get out of his contract all hell breaks loose... Bizarre.
1) David Johnson, like Aaron Rodgers, got a below-market deal because he had two years left on his contract. Teams use that leverage (understandably) to get cheaper deals. They say: You can risk playing on your contract for two years and get a big pay day, or you can take less money but get it now.
In contract, Bell will not get franchised next year. The Steelers have no way to keep him without paying him a contract he likes (unlike Johnson or Gurley or Rodgers). He's trying to use that leverage, good for him. Based on both his skillset and leverage he should break the bank for the RB position.
2) This whole "if my boss..." or "at my work" talk is stupid. This isn't McDonalds, this is the NFL. The labour rules and leverage points are completely different.
For example, you can quit your job and work for 50 other firms. The NFL is a monopoly - its them or no one. And as we all know, there's lots of collusion and other shenanigans in the NFL.
3) The irony is that teams cut players all the time before their contracts expire. But when a player wants to get out of his contract all hell breaks loose... Bizarre.
Brady is the exception, not the rule. There are very few NFL players who take less than every penny they can get.
Bells own teammates have forced the Steelers to pay them top-dollar, and no one is calling them 100% selfish (partially because the Steelers DID pay them what their value was, and didn’t stick to their personal “rules”-Ben got more then 1 guaranteed year, and they re-worked AB’s deal; twice I think before their “rules” say they will).
Bell is worth what people are willing to pay. Since the Steelers franchises him twice, they were preventing him from seeing what people were willing to pay him, then artificially depressing what he was worth by offering him the contract they did. The Gurley and Johnson deals demonstrate that the Steelers offered Bell less than what he would have been offered on an open market (each for over $20M guaranteed at signing, & that is the number that matters in NFL contracts).
Im not saying he should give it less than his all when he reports; I’m saying that his choice to not report “on time” this year, as opposed to last could be due to a decision to not do more than he has to for the Steelers, since they offered him less than what he feels he’s worth, and less than what the NFL feels other RBs of his caliber are worth, and probably less than what he will be worth next year when he’s a FA.
If he finds next year that the best offer he can get is akin to what the Steelers offered him this past off-season, I’ll freely come back and say I was wrong about the Steelers lowballing him (barring a catastrophic injury that prevents a big contract), but I seriously doubt I’ll have to do so.
irish eyes
Footballguy
It is pointless trying to get anything through bayhawks head. If all goes well numnuts bell will forfeit about 10 million and then play for a shi@@@ team next year. I dont want this idiot on the field sabotaging the Steelers season. Bury his dope smoking ### on the bench
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Bell was offered $10M guaranteed at signing; DJ got $24.6M guaranteed at signing. 246% more guaranteed money=“not out of line?”
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irish eyes
Footballguy
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My point being Ari gave DJ 246% more guaranteed money than Pitt offered Bell. That IS NOT “not way out of line” with what Bell was offered. It just demonstrates how little Pitt valued Bell.
I know about the study because every year I got tell people who cite that study that I don't agree with it. Everyone who does not believe what you choose to believe is perpetuating myths. And like I said earlier as it relates to Bell it's obviously a concern either by Bell's agent or simply a concern they think NFL teams have.
mr. peanut
Footballguy
most players would love a guaranteed $15M and a chance at lucrative free agency after. you know who doesn't? a player that knows he is almost done and wants guaranteed money. the fact that everyone is so concerned with guaranteed money tells me as a GM i would never give it to him. Performance bonuses all day long and big salary yes, but guaranteed?
Bell is holding out because he knows he is almost done. one more nick, one more drug test, one more wrong statement on twitter.......he wants long term money so he can party and relax. no one is giving him this. ever.
why would anyone with half a brain give an RB guaranteed money over multiple years in today's NFL? they don't. only the half brains do. Bell is trying to prove a point on how bad the system is but he is the wrong guy to do so. his market value to smart GM's is waaaaaaaay less than he thinks it is. literally any other position besides kickers would be better off trying this.
the franchise tag seems like it should be illegal and probably goes against the principle of most labor laws but Bell is the complete wrong guy to fight it because it is actually an amazing deal for him. he just is not worth what he thinks he is. not even close. and yes i know he is good at fantasy football but that's not what this is about.
EDIT: not sure why i quoted your post. i agreed with your question.
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brewer
Footballguy
We have been down this road before. No, I do not believe the offer was 10 million guaranteed when he was already getting 14.5 guaranteed by playing this year.
brewer
Footballguy
Buttonhook
Footballguy
What? How do you know the market sees Lev as equal to Gurley and DJ? Every Steelers fan I know would kick Lev to the curb if we could get one of those two RBs. They are not equal RBs and I'm glad the front office recognizes that.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
most players would love a guaranteed $15M and a chance at lucrative free agency after. you know who doesn't? a player that knows he is almost done and wants guaranteed money. the fact that everyone is so concerned with guaranteed money tells me as a GM i would never give it to him. Performance bonuses all day long and big salary yes, but guaranteed?
Bell is holding out because he knows he is almost done. one more nick, one more drug test, one more wrong statement on twitter.......he wants long term money so he can party and relax. no one is giving him this. ever.
why would anyone with half a brain give an RB guaranteed money over multiple years in today's NFL? they don't. only the half brains do. Bell is trying to prove a point on how bad the system is but he is the wrong guy to do so. his market value to smart GM's is waaaaaaaay less than he thinks it is. literally any other position besides kickers would be better off trying this.
the franchise tag seems like it should be illegal and probably goes against the principle of most labor laws but Bell is the complete wrong guy to fight it because it is actually an amazing deal for him. he just is not worth what he thinks he is. not even close. and yes i know he is good at fantasy football but that's not what this is about.
EDIT: not sure why i quoted your post. i agreed with your question.
So bad and so wrong. Actually your point about the franchise tag is probably right, but hey a blind squirrel and all.
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Steelers fans’ preferences are not relevant here. If you choose to believe that Bell isn’t, AT THE LEAST, viewed comparably to those 2 RBs by NFL GMs, then you aren’t engaging in a realistic conversation.
Stuart Ullman
Footballguy
most players would love a guaranteed $15M and a chance at lucrative free agency after. you know who doesn't? a player that knows he is almost done and wants guaranteed money. the fact that everyone is so concerned with guaranteed money tells me as a GM i would never give it to him. Performance bonuses all day long and big salary yes, but guaranteed?
Bell is holding out because he knows he is almost done. one more nick, one more drug test, one more wrong statement on twitter.......he wants long term money so he can party and relax. no one is giving him this. ever.
why would anyone with half a brain give an RB guaranteed money over multiple years in today's NFL? they don't. only the half brains do. Bell is trying to prove a point on how bad the system is but he is the wrong guy to do so. his market value to smart GM's is waaaaaaaay less than he thinks it is. literally any other position besides kickers would be better off trying this.
the franchise tag seems like it should be illegal and probably goes against the principle of most labor laws but Bell is the complete wrong guy to fight it because it is actually an amazing deal for him. he just is not worth what he thinks he is. not even close. and yes i know he is good at fantasy football but that's not what this is about.
EDIT: not sure why i quoted your post. i agreed with your question.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
The exemption is against the 53 man roster limit, not paying him. They can't get out of paying him if he's not suspended.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Forget the Steelers. Forget the NFLPA. The MARKET says Bell is worth more. See Gurley/Johnson. To the tune of $30-50+M guaranteed money
msudaisy26
Footballguy
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Yeah, so every QB on a rookie contract should hold out. Forget the CBA! Whatever the market says!
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
Not really....in fact, the Gurley and Johnson deals take two teams out of the running, thereby reducing demand in the market.
The market for a given player is what a willing team will pay for a player willing to go to that team. Each player and team is unique in that regard.
irish eyes
Footballguy
Lol. Exactly, every qb on rookie deal should preserve his body for his next big contract. But..wait for the argument on how that is soooooo different
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