RBs being scarfed up in drafts (1 Viewer)

[Kenny Powers]

Maaaaaaybe I've missed it in the last page or so, but I feel like Graham is being overlooked. If I'm at the back, I typically like my teams most when I end up with

Calvin/RB

Graham

WR or RB (opposite of round 1)

RB

That's why I like getting Graham early with a top WR or RB - you're locking in a positional advantage of quite a few points per week. If you're playing the WW to improve at one position...I think a RB or WR has proven to be a lot more likely to break out each year than a TE is.

The more I think about it and read this thread, Im starting to think Graham is overrated. He was TE1 last year, but from 2011 his catches dropped by 14, yardage by 325, and TDs by 2. Now I think its reasonable for his numbers to go back up towards middle ground of his last 2 years, like 92/1170/10, but 2011 was a historic season for a TE (both him and Gronk) for a reason, because thats real tough to do. He offers no real advantage over Witten or Gonzalez in PPR, yet is going 3+ rounds ahead of them.

I realize TE is a position that looked deep 2 years ago and now looks questionable if you wait, but Graham,Gonzo, and Witten basically had identical seasons point wise last year in PPR, and not much of a difference in non-PPR. I actually think Witten and Gonzo are the value plays, but Im perfectly fine waiting for a TE and maybe grabbing combo like Daniels/Davis and I typically only roster 1 TE.

This makes me think you don't get the math behind Graham's production:

Last year he was about 3 PPG better than Witten (this year's consensus "next guy"). He was about 2 PPG better than Tony G, who I personally don't see repeating his production at all.

Last year, as you so eloquently put, was far below his capabilities. He was hurt, he played hurt in many games, and he was still the #1 TE. He could be worth as much as 5-8 ppg over the #2 TE (and a helluva lot more over each TE worse...) all year long. The advantage is massive.

Last year (based on 1 PPR, 1pt/10 yds, 6pts/TD):

Graham: 85/982/9 = 237.2 pts

Witten: 110/1039/3 = 231.9 pts

Gonzo: 93/930/8 = 234 pts

Where is my math wrong? Those are nearly identical years and the other guys are going 3+ rounds later

Graham missed games and played in others hurt.

Look, you clearly know everything and are perfect, so you don't have to take my word for it...but you sound kind of like an idiot sometimes. Just think before you post.

Also, I get points for this year, not last year. A lot of people have a lot of success basing everything off of last year, but I tend to try and base my picks, strategies, and thoughts about what I think will happen this year. It's not that one way is more right or wrong, but it is a viable option.

Have a good one man.

Graham missed 1 game last year.

I dont think Ive said anything that makes me sound like an idiot, but ok.

Thanks for your rebuttal on the top TEs stats last year

I would suggest that those numbers for Graham are probably his floor, while the numbers for the other 2 are probably their ceilings. That is the difference. Though you make a fair point.

Here are my 2 cents on why Graham is not being overlooked or undervalued. Last year, in standard scoring, 6pts a TD. Graham was the #1 TE and he finished 57 points higher than the 12th TE. The #1 QB last year scored 110 more points than the 12th QB. Ok, so we say Graham has huge upside. Best case scenario would be like Gronks 2011. That year Gronk was 143 points higher than the 12th TE. However, the #1 QB in 2011 finished 170 points higher than the 12th QB. In 2010, it was +73 vs +58 in favor of the QB again. Just looking at the numbers, getting the top QB is going to get you a bigger edge on points at the position than taking Graham. If you take Graham, you are taking the fact that he is reliable and is the surest bet to be the #1 TE, but not because he gives you a massive points advantage.

To add to the Jimmy Graham vs QB sub-topic here, if you grab Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Manning or Cam you have a drafted a QB that has shown that in nearly every year they have started in the NFL, they were a top 5 fantasy QB. It is a guess as to who will finish first overall, but you can be pretty confident you have a top 5 QB. In a prior post,I looked at point differentials for best case scenario: #1 QB vs #12 QB. What about the most likely worst case scenario? #5 QB vs #12 QB.

QB 2012: +56 2011: +121 2010: +56

The advantage with Graham is that there isn't much reasonable competition to prevent him from being the #1 TE. So here again are the #1TE vs #12 TE

TE 2012: +57 2011: +143 2010: +58

That means if you take a top end QB instead of Graham, Graham either needs to have a Gronk 2011 type year or the pick was a dud. The 5th QB likely outperforms the 12th QB to the same degree that the # TE1 outperforms the #12 TE. However, if that QB finishes higher than 5, they are definitely going to give you a greater points advantage than Jimmy Graham.

Ive typically waited for my QB til the mid rounds, and will likely go RB or WR in the 2nd round, but youve convinced me that Rodgers or Brees is a better 2nd round pick than Graham.

 

[Junior McSpiffy]

But it's like I was saying before: at the end of rounds 3 and 4, I'm getting WRs who everyone acts will perform like WR1s but who have a better chance of sinking to low WR2 production than they do overperforming their draft status and playing like a top-5 guy.

Maybe I'm stuck in a mindset, but it feels like I'm being told to draft for floor for the first two-thirds of my draft. Grab two RBs who will be "solid" (code for "unspectacular"), then since I have my RBs, get two WRs who are equally "solid." Round five, now maybe I get to shoot for the moon from my WR3 position, but round six, get a good backup RB... you know, someone "solid." Round seven and eight, time to get that "solid" TE and QB combo. Sounds like the perfect recipe for a milquetoast team finishing sixth.

The way I see it, there is a tier of four or five RBs who clearly separate themselves, then a pool of fifteen or so guys all lumped together. Same with the WRs... four or five guys who are elite, potential game-changers, then a huge, steaming lump of "value." I'm being told to pass on a chance to get two elite guys just to take two faces in the crowd... and the reasoning is because there will be two more faces in the crowd further along the road.

That is far from loin-moistening.

"Elite" isn't really the 2nd or 3rd WR or RB performing that way. It's the 15th performing like the 5th, or the 30th performing like the 15th. RB is the only position where you can already be looking to outperform ADP at the 1/2 turn.. There's value in that. Every time you spend a pick on a "sure thing"--say, a top 5-7 player at the position--you're giving up a chance to find the breakout at a more depleted position. Obviously you'd pick from the 5-7 top ranked guys at every position if you could, but you run out of those opportunities quickly.It sounds a little counterintuitive, I'll admit. But if I'm picking near the end of the first round, there's a very good chance I'm taking one top-ranked receiver and one of those late 1st/early 2nd backs. That's a good hedge between the safety of a "sure thing" and the potential big returns of an outperformer.

The point about over-performing at RB1... makes sense. I still would need to see a RB I feel comfortable with fall to me at that spot, but perhaps I could find a way to expand my idea of "first tier" a bit.

To pull on that thread a little more: if we grant that half of the first ten RBs taken will underperform, doesn't that make the next few off the board pretty good investments? I know the order is arbitrary, as is the fact that the dropout happens every year (I'd say it's more just a reflection of the fact that half of RBs tend to underperform across the board, often through injury). But if you're the kind of person who believes ADP has at least some loose predictive value (or at least derives from prediction/the wisdom of the crowd), you'd probably bank on the 11th through 15th ranked guys being next in line for relatively big numbers when half the top ten fails, right? In that respect, there's nothing special about "top ten" RBs versus the rest of them. Seems like fantasy football managers get things right about half the time whether you're top ten or top thirty.For all its sniping, this thread is going some interesting places. Good stuff.

See, this is where you are losing me. We're basically acknowledging that there is a pool of "guys." It bleeds from the middle class up into the bottom rung of the mythical "top 10." And they all feel fairly interchangeable. Fairly... middle-of-the-road.

If I go RB/RB and then WR/WR, I need one of my RBs to overperform as well as one of my WRs. If I go WR/WR and then RB/RB, I just need one of my RBs to overperform and my WRs to simply maintain their projected value as top-flight guys. If I have a serviceable RB1 because one of my guys plays over his draft slot, then I'm left with below-average RB2 but stellar WR1 -and- WR2, and I feel I'm ahead of the game. I only have to bet on one guy overdoing it compared to two.

Also, we talk about guys sliding down and performing less than their "top 10" ranking. But I would say that the guys in the top of that tier, the 1-percenters of the 1-percenters if you will, are in those positions because of the stability of the floor. The higher you get in that tier, the more reliable they are to keep a high level of production. There's no guarantee of it, but it feels more likely. The more you get down to Spiller/Richardson/McCoy, the more you are looking at ceiling and hoping they shoot up, because it's also easy to see how things go wrong and they sag to a less-impressive floor. So if I can get two WRs with high-yet-secure floors rather than a guy whose floor is less reliable, I'll take that. Then when I go for a ceiling guy in the third/fourth, his ceiling won't be as high, but I'm not paying a premium price for it.

 

[pantherclub]

The one thing that is constant and that Powers refuses to acknowledge and address is that that 6,7 or even 8 of the top 12 ranked backs will bust or flame out.

Peterson

Foster

Martin

Charles

Lynch

Rice

Spiller

Richardson

McCoy

Morris

Forte

Jackson

So 6-8 of these guys will bust? Meaning, finish worse than RB18 say (mid level RB2). I doubt it, but can you tell me me which 6-8 of the 12 will be those busts Nostrapantherclub?

Yes 6-8 will bust outright. It happens every.single.year. You seem like a bright guy go back and look at your notes/sheets/whatever from previous years. It happens. I am not sure why you are having trouble digesting it. Most everyone else on here at least acknowledges and prepares for it. I have shown you at least 2 years worth in this thread (I am pretty sure it was this thread) but yet you simply refuse to believe.

And no, I cannot tell you which guys it will be hence my philosophy of taking the #1wr or #1QB in the first as they are way safer picks.

 

[pantherclub]

Grabbing 2 top 10 RBs in the first 2 round and grabbing 2 top 10-15 WRs is a much better strategy to build your team.

How exactly do you grab 2 top 10 RBs if you have say picks 8 and 17?

ETA: Or 12 and 13 for that matter.

I suppose it depends on how you personally rank the RBs. If you really like MJD, Chris Johnson, or Steven Ridley, you could get one of them at 17 and in your mind have 2 top 10 RBs.

If we are assuming that when drafting you know significantly more than your league mates and are going to be able to grab a top 10 RB as the 15th,16th, or 19th RB drafted (FantasyPro's PPR consensus rankings) then of course you should nab a top 10 RB.

However how have RBs drafted in those slots fared historically?

Over the past 5 years, median outcome of 15th RB drafted based on ADP is RB27, 16th is RB18 and 19th is RB21.

The median outcomes go down after that, so if you are comfortable drafting a low-end RB2 in the 2nd due to positional scarcity it may still make sense, but those median outcomes is why people look elsewhere.

TLDR; if you know the future pick a top 10 RB in the late 2nd, otherwise you might want to consider other options.

Do you have median finish for other ADP positions? RB5? RB10? How come you left out RBs 14,17, and 18?

Because we were talking about 3 specific RBs. The way I personally use this data is to group the RB draft slots into groups of 5 and take the median over that tranche which leads to more robust data IMO.

RB1-5 median of RB9

RB 6-10 median of RB13

RB11-15 median of RB23

RB 16-20 median of RB19

RB 21-25 median of RB40

RB 26-30 median of RB37

First range of numbers is position drafted.

Obviously results will vary year-to-year but I think taking medians over 5 years and looking at a larger range of draft slots gives some relatively robust data. I did this last year and median outcomes for top 2 tranches were exact same for 2007-2011 vs 2008-2012.

ETA: One interesting takeaway from this is that the RB 31-35 and RB 40-45 tranches have better median outcomes than RB 21-25 and RB 26-30.

Holy #### that is some good data

thanks

 

[chickensoup]

The one thing that is constant and that Powers refuses to acknowledge and address is that that 6,7 or even 8 of the top 12 ranked backs will bust or flame out.

Peterson

Foster

Martin

Charles

Lynch

Rice

Spiller

Richardson

McCoy

Morris

Forte

Jackson

So 6-8 of these guys will bust? Meaning, finish worse than RB18 say (mid level RB2). I doubt it, but can you tell me me which 6-8 of the 12 will be those busts Nostrapantherclub?

Basically this. It becomes hard to use data from before because this years top crop doesn't have nearly the question marks as years past:

Peterson: coming off ACL last year, this year goods into the year healthy

Charles: coming off ACL last year, this year healthy plus Andy Reid

Martin: rookie last year with at least a little controversy on usage

Lynch: I believe it was a DUI going into the year, I remember controversy about him

Spiller: was RB 2 behind Jackson then took over

Richardson: rookie on a bad team, health issues going into the year

Jackson: bad team, controversy over wearing down because of age

Most of these guys have very little hanging over them this year. Foster has an injury, Lynch has another DUI maybe? (Can't remember if I'm mixing up info). But besides that, other than injury, what keeps these players from 20 touches per game?

Last year you had some outstanding backs coming off injuries that put their draft stock way down. This year that's hardly the case at all. RB are back to high picks because there are just not that many questions. The questions start in the third ish round plus you have guys that are going to get drafted as RB2s that are going to produce RB2 (Bush, Bradshaw if he even plays).

The only guys outside the first 2 rounds that have a realistic shot at top 12 are Gore and MJD. Gore has to get a lot of TD to get it though iMO

 

[Ilov80s]

Maaaaaaybe I've missed it in the last page or so, but I feel like Graham is being overlooked. If I'm at the back, I typically like my teams most when I end up with

Calvin/RB

Graham

WR or RB (opposite of round 1)

RB

That's why I like getting Graham early with a top WR or RB - you're locking in a positional advantage of quite a few points per week. If you're playing the WW to improve at one position...I think a RB or WR has proven to be a lot more likely to break out each year than a TE is.

The more I think about it and read this thread, Im starting to think Graham is overrated. He was TE1 last year, but from 2011 his catches dropped by 14, yardage by 325, and TDs by 2. Now I think its reasonable for his numbers to go back up towards middle ground of his last 2 years, like 92/1170/10, but 2011 was a historic season for a TE (both him and Gronk) for a reason, because thats real tough to do. He offers no real advantage over Witten or Gonzalez in PPR, yet is going 3+ rounds ahead of them.

I realize TE is a position that looked deep 2 years ago and now looks questionable if you wait, but Graham,Gonzo, and Witten basically had identical seasons point wise last year in PPR, and not much of a difference in non-PPR. I actually think Witten and Gonzo are the value plays, but Im perfectly fine waiting for a TE and maybe grabbing combo like Daniels/Davis and I typically only roster 1 TE.

This makes me think you don't get the math behind Graham's production:

Last year he was about 3 PPG better than Witten (this year's consensus "next guy"). He was about 2 PPG better than Tony G, who I personally don't see repeating his production at all.

Last year, as you so eloquently put, was far below his capabilities. He was hurt, he played hurt in many games, and he was still the #1 TE. He could be worth as much as 5-8 ppg over the #2 TE (and a helluva lot more over each TE worse...) all year long. The advantage is massive.

Last year (based on 1 PPR, 1pt/10 yds, 6pts/TD):

Graham: 85/982/9 = 237.2 pts

Witten: 110/1039/3 = 231.9 pts

Gonzo: 93/930/8 = 234 pts

Where is my math wrong? Those are nearly identical years and the other guys are going 3+ rounds later

Graham missed games and played in others hurt.

Look, you clearly know everything and are perfect, so you don't have to take my word for it...but you sound kind of like an idiot sometimes. Just think before you post.

Also, I get points for this year, not last year. A lot of people have a lot of success basing everything off of last year, but I tend to try and base my picks, strategies, and thoughts about what I think will happen this year. It's not that one way is more right or wrong, but it is a viable option.

Have a good one man.

Graham missed 1 game last year.

I dont think Ive said anything that makes me sound like an idiot, but ok.

Thanks for your rebuttal on the top TEs stats last year

I would suggest that those numbers for Graham are probably his floor, while the numbers for the other 2 are probably their ceilings. That is the difference. Though you make a fair point.

Here are my 2 cents on why Graham is not being overlooked or undervalued. Last year, in standard scoring, 6pts a TD. Graham was the #1 TE and he finished 57 points higher than the 12th TE. The #1 QB last year scored 110 more points than the 12th QB. Ok, so we say Graham has huge upside. Best case scenario would be like Gronks 2011. That year Gronk was 143 points higher than the 12th TE. However, the #1 QB in 2011 finished 170 points higher than the 12th QB. In 2010, it was +73 vs +58 in favor of the QB again. Just looking at the numbers, getting the top QB is going to get you a bigger edge on points at the position than taking Graham. If you take Graham, you are taking the fact that he is reliable and is the surest bet to be the #1 TE, but not because he gives you a massive points advantage.

To add to the Jimmy Graham vs QB sub-topic here, if you grab Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Manning or Cam you have a drafted a QB that has shown that in nearly every year they have started in the NFL, they were a top 5 fantasy QB. It is a guess as to who will finish first overall, but you can be pretty confident you have a top 5 QB. In a prior post,I looked at point differentials for best case scenario: #1 QB vs #12 QB. What about the most likely worst case scenario? #5 QB vs #12 QB.

QB 2012: +56 2011: +121 2010: +56

The advantage with Graham is that there isn't much reasonable competition to prevent him from being the #1 TE. So here again are the #1TE vs #12 TE

TE 2012: +57 2011: +143 2010: +58

That means if you take a top end QB instead of Graham, Graham either needs to have a Gronk 2011 type year or the pick was a dud. The 5th QB likely outperforms the 12th QB to the same degree that the # TE1 outperforms the #12 TE. However, if that QB finishes higher than 5, they are definitely going to give you a greater points advantage than Jimmy Graham.

Ive typically waited for my QB til the mid rounds, and will likely go RB or WR in the 2nd round, but youve convinced me that Rodgers or Brees is a better 2nd round pick than Graham.

I've talked myself out of it as well. A week ago, I was praying Graham fell to me in late second. Now, I have him more as a mid 3rd- early 4th round guy. To put it in perspective, lets look at prime Antonio Gates. In 2006, he had 146 points, more than 20 points higher than the next guy (Crumpler). In 2005, he had 170 points and 40 higher than the next guy (Shockey). How does that compare to Graham? In 2012 Graham 152 points, 11 points higher than the 3rd TE (Tony Gonzalez) and in 2011, Graham scored 197, 60 points higher than 3rd TE (POS). Graham also scored 40 points less than the top TE that year.

Gates and Graham are pretty similar at this point. Both are proven guys, guaranteed to be top 2 TEs and outscore almost all other TEs by significant numbers. No new teams or major changes to the QB or offense. In 2013, Graham is being taken on average 22nd overall. Antonio Gates was being taken 36 overall. I think the TE love has gotten a little carried away the last two years.

 

[pantherclub]

But it's like I was saying before: at the end of rounds 3 and 4, I'm getting WRs who everyone acts will perform like WR1s but who have a better chance of sinking to low WR2 production than they do overperforming their draft status and playing like a top-5 guy.

Maybe I'm stuck in a mindset, but it feels like I'm being told to draft for floor for the first two-thirds of my draft. Grab two RBs who will be "solid" (code for "unspectacular"), then since I have my RBs, get two WRs who are equally "solid." Round five, now maybe I get to shoot for the moon from my WR3 position, but round six, get a good backup RB... you know, someone "solid." Round seven and eight, time to get that "solid" TE and QB combo. Sounds like the perfect recipe for a milquetoast team finishing sixth.

The way I see it, there is a tier of four or five RBs who clearly separate themselves, then a pool of fifteen or so guys all lumped together. Same with the WRs... four or five guys who are elite, potential game-changers, then a huge, steaming lump of "value." I'm being told to pass on a chance to get two elite guys just to take two faces in the crowd... and the reasoning is because there will be two more faces in the crowd further along the road.

That is far from loin-moistening.

"Elite" isn't really the 2nd or 3rd WR or RB performing that way. It's the 15th performing like the 5th, or the 30th performing like the 15th. RB is the only position where you can already be looking to outperform ADP at the 1/2 turn.. There's value in that. Every time you spend a pick on a "sure thing"--say, a top 5-7 player at the position--you're giving up a chance to find the breakout at a more depleted position. Obviously you'd pick from the 5-7 top ranked guys at every position if you could, but you run out of those opportunities quickly.It sounds a little counterintuitive, I'll admit. But if I'm picking near the end of the first round, there's a very good chance I'm taking one top-ranked receiver and one of those late 1st/early 2nd backs. That's a good hedge between the safety of a "sure thing" and the potential big returns of an outperformer.

The point about over-performing at RB1... makes sense. I still would need to see a RB I feel comfortable with fall to me at that spot, but perhaps I could find a way to expand my idea of "first tier" a bit.

To pull on that thread a little more: if we grant that half of the first ten RBs taken will underperform, doesn't that make the next few off the board pretty good investments? I know the order is arbitrary, as is the fact that the dropout happens every year (I'd say it's more just a reflection of the fact that half of RBs tend to underperform across the board, often through injury). But if you're the kind of person who believes ADP has at least some loose predictive value (or at least derives from prediction/the wisdom of the crowd), you'd probably bank on the 11th through 15th ranked guys being next in line for relatively big numbers when half the top ten fails, right? In that respect, there's nothing special about "top ten" RBs versus the rest of them. Seems like fantasy football managers get things right about half the time whether you're top ten or top thirty.For all its sniping, this thread is going some interesting places. Good stuff.

See, this is where you are losing me. We're basically acknowledging that there is a pool of "guys." It bleeds from the middle class up into the bottom rung of the mythical "top 10." And they all feel fairly interchangeable. Fairly... middle-of-the-road.

If I go RB/RB and then WR/WR, I need one of my RBs to overperform as well as one of my WRs. If I go WR/WR and then RB/RB, I just need one of my RBs to overperform and my WRs to simply maintain their projected value as top-flight guys. If I have a serviceable RB1 because one of my guys plays over his draft slot, then I'm left with below-average RB2 but stellar WR1 -and- WR2, and I feel I'm ahead of the game. I only have to bet on one guy overdoing it compared to two.

boom goes the dynamite

excellent post

another point that we have made in regards to a top picked RB is that even when they dont produce you still feel like you must start them just simply because you drafted them in the first. By the time you acknowledge that they are busts (again over 60%of the top 12 are) then you are behind the 8 ball.

 

[Junior McSpiffy]

The one thing that is constant and that Powers refuses to acknowledge and address is that that 6,7 or even 8 of the top 12 ranked backs will bust or flame out.

Peterson

Foster

Martin

Charles

Lynch

Rice

Spiller

Richardson

McCoy

Morris

Forte

Jackson

So 6-8 of these guys will bust? Meaning, finish worse than RB18 say (mid level RB2). I doubt it, but can you tell me me which 6-8 of the 12 will be those busts Nostrapantherclub?

So I take it that you look at this and say "So just close your eyes and pick a couple" while others of us are saying "No, we can't tell, so if there's not a guy we feel good about, we're going to steer clear of that pool of "guys." And while I am clearly in the second group of people, I'm not saying there's not some validity to your approach. It's just not mine.

 

[pantherclub]

The one thing that is constant and that Powers refuses to acknowledge and address is that that 6,7 or even 8 of the top 12 ranked backs will bust or flame out.

Peterson

Foster

Martin

Charles

Lynch

Rice

Spiller

Richardson

McCoy

Morris

Forte

Jackson

So 6-8 of these guys will bust? Meaning, finish worse than RB18 say (mid level RB2). I doubt it, but can you tell me me which 6-8 of the 12 will be those busts Nostrapantherclub?

So I take it that you look at this and say "So just close your eyes and pick a couple" while others of us are saying "No, we can't tell, so if there's not a guy we feel good about, we're going to steer clear of that pool of "guys." And while I am clearly in the second group of people, I'm not saying there's not some validity to your approach. It's just not mine.

if you try hard enough you can find question marks with just about anyone. Mccoy-concussions, Jackson-mileage, Richardson and Spiller - horrible teams, with new qb's etc

 

[pantherclub]

Looking over Chris Johnsons and SJacksons game log from last year and Johnson gave you 4 out of 5 games of total crap and Jackson didnt do anything spectacular all effing year. If you have 4-5 games right from the start and not get anything from your top pick then man you are really hurting in a bad way. And again you have this need or desire to keep starting him because you just feel somehow he is going to turn it around.

Quickly glancing over the top 7ish wr taken last year they were all money from the word go with the exception of AJohnson and Fitz

 

[sithrich]

Last years online FPC champion spent his first 2 picks on RBs and picked another in the 4th round....

Guess he was an idiot lol!!

He obviously didn't know he should be skipping on RBs early because they will bust...or not perform to their ADP as so thoroughly explained in this thread.

 

[oswizzle]

In Calvin we Trust

 

[pantherclub]

nobody is calling anyone idiots in this thread, lets not take this to another level

this is an interesting discussion with multiple people bring in good facts and stats

 

[Kenny Powers]

The one thing that is constant and that Powers refuses to acknowledge and address is that that 6,7 or even 8 of the top 12 ranked backs will bust or flame out.

Peterson

Foster

Martin

Charles

Lynch

Rice

Spiller

Richardson

McCoy

Morris

Forte

Jackson

So 6-8 of these guys will bust? Meaning, finish worse than RB18 say (mid level RB2). I doubt it, but can you tell me me which 6-8 of the 12 will be those busts Nostrapantherclub?

So I take it that you look at this and say "So just close your eyes and pick a couple" while others of us are saying "No, we can't tell, so if there's not a guy we feel good about, we're going to steer clear of that pool of "guys." And while I am clearly in the second group of people, I'm not saying there's not some validity to your approach. It's just not mine.

No, I look at that and say "I have a hard time believing any of these guys will have a bad year". For instance, just look at the last 2 guys, Forte and SJax. In Forte's 5 years career, he has averaged finishing RB12. In the last 3 years (despite missing 5 games), he has finished on average RB12 and never worse than RB15. SJax hasnt finished worse than RB17 since his rookie year, and over the last 3 years has finished on average RB14. While these guys each have a knock (Forte on usage, SJax wear and tear) there is also reason to believe each outperforms where theyre going (Forte ironically again usage, SJax is now on an elite offense). Regardless, you know you are getting production from these guys.

Based on some of your previous posts, I can ascertain that you would say, "well those RBs have a small chance at finishing top 5". I would agree with that, but they also have a strong shot at finishing as RB1's, and a far stronger shot at finishing at/near RB1 than the RB you have a shot at in the 3rd or 4th round. Which is different than WR, because there are plenty of those guys still hanging around at that point.

 

[Kenny Powers]

In Calvin we Trust

Funny thing is a lot of the WR/WR advocates here are using that strategy if youre picking late 1st round. Yet Ive typically seen them starting this off in theory with Don Mega. Newsflash, if youre picking late first and using this strategy, youre starting off with AJ Green, not Calvin because he is long gone.

 

[pantherclub]

For the record the adp on a 12 team for both Jackson and Forte are both before AJ Green and Dez Bryant. I cannot fathom any scenario where I would want those 2 before Dez and certainly green. Jacksons stats have declined every year since 2009 and his carries are astronomical. Forte is just forte. He gets his 1000 yards, 50 catches and every year you think the td's are coming but never do. As you say he ends up outside the top 10. Why in the world would you pass up Green for that?

 

[Junior McSpiffy]

The one thing that is constant and that Powers refuses to acknowledge and address is that that 6,7 or even 8 of the top 12 ranked backs will bust or flame out.

Peterson

Foster

Martin

Charles

Lynch

Rice

Spiller

Richardson

McCoy

Morris

Forte

Jackson

So 6-8 of these guys will bust? Meaning, finish worse than RB18 say (mid level RB2). I doubt it, but can you tell me me which 6-8 of the 12 will be those busts Nostrapantherclub?

So I take it that you look at this and say "So just close your eyes and pick a couple" while others of us are saying "No, we can't tell, so if there's not a guy we feel good about, we're going to steer clear of that pool of "guys." And while I am clearly in the second group of people, I'm not saying there's not some validity to your approach. It's just not mine.

No, I look at that and say "I have a hard time believing any of these guys will have a bad year". For instance, just look at the last 2 guys, Forte and SJax. In Forte's 5 years career, he has averaged finishing RB12. In the last 3 years (despite missing 5 games), he has finished on average RB12 and never worse than RB15. SJax hasnt finished worse than RB17 since his rookie year, and over the last 3 years has finished on average RB14. While these guys each have a knock (Forte on usage, SJax wear and tear) there is also reason to believe each outperforms where theyre going (Forte ironically again usage, SJax is now on an elite offense). Regardless, you know you are getting production from these guys.

Based on some of your previous posts, I can ascertain that you would say, "well those RBs have a small chance at finishing top 5". I would agree with that, but they also have a strong shot at finishing as RB1's, and a far stronger shot at finishing at/near RB1 than the RB you have a shot at in the 3rd or 4th round. Which is different than WR, because there are plenty of those guys still hanging around at that point.

But I'm not looking for RB12 or better stats when getting RB23. If he plays up to, say RB16, I feel I'm getting ROI. If I get both RB23 and RB24 to play up at RB15-RB17, I'm golden. The key is that my WR1 and WR2 both play like top-5 guys. But what you stated with the RBs, I feel also applies to the WRs: the top five guys are kind of a tier unto themselves. The fact that there are about 15-20 WRs who can perform like a WR8 does lend itself well to the "there's a deep pool full of value in the WRs this year," but just because there's good value at WR doesn't mean there is a strong likelihood that you can get a guy in both the third and fourth rounds who you wouldn't be ashamed to have as your "ace receiver," not that there is a large pool of guys who have "top five" written all over them.

And so the distinguishing mark would be... how close do you feel the tier of "guys" is to the top 5 in the RB pool, and how close are the teeming masses of "guys" in the WR pool to the elite top five? Myself, I think the difference in both the cases is significant.

 

[pantherclub]

In Calvin we Trust

Funny thing is a lot of the WR/WR advocates here are using that strategy if youre picking late 1st round. Yet Ive typically seen them starting this off in theory with Don Mega. Newsflash, if youre picking late first and using this strategy, youre starting off with AJ Green, not Calvin because he is long gone.

true but I would pick Calvin around 5 and then Julio or late in the first you go Green and then Bryant or Julio. Thats a monster tandem either way that you know pretty damn certain you are going to get points from week one on.

 

[We Tigers]

But it's like I was saying before: at the end of rounds 3 and 4, I'm getting WRs who everyone acts will perform like WR1s but who have a better chance of sinking to low WR2 production than they do overperforming their draft status and playing like a top-5 guy.

Maybe I'm stuck in a mindset, but it feels like I'm being told to draft for floor for the first two-thirds of my draft. Grab two RBs who will be "solid" (code for "unspectacular"), then since I have my RBs, get two WRs who are equally "solid." Round five, now maybe I get to shoot for the moon from my WR3 position, but round six, get a good backup RB... you know, someone "solid." Round seven and eight, time to get that "solid" TE and QB combo. Sounds like the perfect recipe for a milquetoast team finishing sixth.

The way I see it, there is a tier of four or five RBs who clearly separate themselves, then a pool of fifteen or so guys all lumped together. Same with the WRs... four or five guys who are elite, potential game-changers, then a huge, steaming lump of "value." I'm being told to pass on a chance to get two elite guys just to take two faces in the crowd... and the reasoning is because there will be two more faces in the crowd further along the road.

That is far from loin-moistening.

"Elite" isn't really the 2nd or 3rd WR or RB performing that way. It's the 15th performing like the 5th, or the 30th performing like the 15th. RB is the only position where you can already be looking to outperform ADP at the 1/2 turn.. There's value in that. Every time you spend a pick on a "sure thing"--say, a top 5-7 player at the position--you're giving up a chance to find the breakout at a more depleted position. Obviously you'd pick from the 5-7 top ranked guys at every position if you could, but you run out of those opportunities quickly.It sounds a little counterintuitive, I'll admit. But if I'm picking near the end of the first round, there's a very good chance I'm taking one top-ranked receiver and one of those late 1st/early 2nd backs. That's a good hedge between the safety of a "sure thing" and the potential big returns of an outperformer.

The point about over-performing at RB1... makes sense. I still would need to see a RB I feel comfortable with fall to me at that spot, but perhaps I could find a way to expand my idea of "first tier" a bit.

To pull on that thread a little more: if we grant that half of the first ten RBs taken will underperform, doesn't that make the next few off the board pretty good investments? I know the order is arbitrary, as is the fact that the dropout happens every year (I'd say it's more just a reflection of the fact that half of RBs tend to underperform across the board, often through injury). But if you're the kind of person who believes ADP has at least some loose predictive value (or at least derives from prediction/the wisdom of the crowd), you'd probably bank on the 11th through 15th ranked guys being next in line for relatively big numbers when half the top ten fails, right? In that respect, there's nothing special about "top ten" RBs versus the rest of them. Seems like fantasy football managers get things right about half the time whether you're top ten or top thirty.For all its sniping, this thread is going some interesting places. Good stuff.

See, this is where you are losing me. We're basically acknowledging that there is a pool of "guys." It bleeds from the middle class up into the bottom rung of the mythical "top 10." And they all feel fairly interchangeable. Fairly... middle-of-the-road.

If I go RB/RB and then WR/WR, I need one of my RBs to overperform as well as one of my WRs. If I go WR/WR and then RB/RB, I just need one of my RBs to overperform and my WRs to simply maintain their projected value as top-flight guys. If I have a serviceable RB1 because one of my guys plays over his draft slot, then I'm left with below-average RB2 but stellar WR1 -and- WR2, and I feel I'm ahead of the game. I only have to bet on one guy overdoing it compared to two.

Also, we talk about guys sliding down and performing less than their "top 10" ranking. But I would say that the guys in the top of that tier, the 1-percenters of the 1-percenters if you will, are in those positions because of the stability of the floor. The higher you get in that tier, the more reliable they are to keep a high level of production. There's no guarantee of it, but it feels more likely. The more you get down to Spiller/Richardson/McCoy, the more you are looking at ceiling and hoping they shoot up, because it's also easy to see how things go wrong and they sag to a less-impressive floor. So if I can get two WRs with high-yet-secure floors rather than a guy whose floor is less reliable, I'll take that. Then when I go for a ceiling guy in the third/fourth, his ceiling won't be as high, but I'm not paying a premium price for it.

Very good points, especially regarding minimizing your need for over performers. I think there are two ways my perspective on this differs somewhat from yours:1) I think I have more distinct tiers than you within the large group of middle class to bottom-rung-of-top-ten RBs. I put Forte, CJ, and Jackson in a tier or more above Ridley, MJD, Gore, Murray and Reggie Bush, the rest of the sometimes-2nd-round RBs. The former group I see as solid bets for 1400+ total yards, all with additional upside based on a lot of factors (including their track records, Andy Levitre, Marc Trestman, Atlanta, etc.). I may be less risk-averse to burning a late 1st/early 2nd on RB than you because of this.

2) I see WRs as the group, across all rounds, where I'm most likely to grab overperformers. It's the position where I can most consistently find a guy who outplays his draft slot by 10+ spots in the ranking. Whether it's the guys going WR15-20, 30-35, or even 50+, there are always enough about whom I feel very strongly that I want to be building up my WR corps in round 5, round 10, etc. Fewer RBs see significant enough snaps to make an impact, and that scarcity drives me to spread my WRs out more liberally across the draft.

Those two points are part of why I ascribe a lot of value to the possibility of hitting big with the 12th or so RB off the board. In the words of the great Patrick Swayze, opinions vary.

 

[meyerj31]

For the record the adp on a 12 team for both Jackson and Forte are both before AJ Green and Dez Bryant. I cannot fathom any scenario where I would want those 2 before Dez and certainly green. Jacksons stats have declined every year since 2009 and his carries are astronomical. Forte is just forte. He gets his 1000 yards, 50 catches and every year you think the td's are coming but never do. As you say he ends up outside the top 10. Why in the world would you pass up Green for that?

Yea I'm not really getting this on the MFL 10s. People are avoiding the elite WRs big time. I've been getting AJ Green at the 2.05... Dez/Julio both in the late 2nd, Demaryious in the 3rd..... shocking. VBD says they should have been long gone, even with extra weighting on the RBs. I've finished many MFL 10s with 3-4 elite WRs but RB starters like Le'veon Bell, Bradshaw, Vereen, and grabbing guys like DeAngelo Williams late.... I think I'll be OK, but if I draft any more I will be adamantly taking best RB available in the 1st just to get one stud.

 

[pantherclub]

For the record the adp on a 12 team for both Jackson and Forte are both before AJ Green and Dez Bryant. I cannot fathom any scenario where I would want those 2 before Dez and certainly green. Jacksons stats have declined every year since 2009 and his carries are astronomical. Forte is just forte. He gets his 1000 yards, 50 catches and every year you think the td's are coming but never do. As you say he ends up outside the top 10. Why in the world would you pass up Green for that?

Yea I'm not really getting this on the MFL 10s. People are avoiding the elite WRs big time. I've been getting AJ Green at the 2.05... Dez/Julio both in the late 2nd, Demaryious in the 3rd..... shocking. VBD says they should have been long gone, even with extra weighting on the RBs. I've finished many MFL 10s with 3-4 elite WRs but RB starters like Le'veon Bell, Bradshaw, Vereen, and grabbing guys like DeAngelo Williams late.... I think I'll be OK, but if I draft any more I will be adamantly taking best RB available in the 1st just to get one stud.

I am just going by adp from FFC. Once we see the pay league drafts start up and preseason games begin then I think this corrects itself a bit more

I think Dwill is a great pick if you are getting him late (his adp is 7.10) and he sure as hell can sniff the top 10 if things turn right for the Panthers

 

[Kenny Powers]

For the record the adp on a 12 team for both Jackson and Forte are both before AJ Green and Dez Bryant. I cannot fathom any scenario where I would want those 2 before Dez and certainly green. Jacksons stats have declined every year since 2009 and his carries are astronomical. Forte is just forte. He gets his 1000 yards, 50 catches and every year you think the td's are coming but never do. As you say he ends up outside the top 10. Why in the world would you pass up Green for that?

For the record, youre wrong. According to MFL and looking at drafts since Aug 1st, in all scoring systems Green's ADP is 11, Dez 12. Forte 15, SJax 20. In PPR Forte moves up to 13 but AJ and Dez are still ahead of him. FBG's "consensus" ADP has Green 12, Dez 13, Forte 14, SJax 16.

You pass up Green for that because you can get a WR who has a good chance at producing similar numbers as Green's a round later than him. Cant say the same for the RBs.

 

[pantherclub]

For the record the adp on a 12 team for both Jackson and Forte are both before AJ Green and Dez Bryant. I cannot fathom any scenario where I would want those 2 before Dez and certainly green. Jacksons stats have declined every year since 2009 and his carries are astronomical. Forte is just forte. He gets his 1000 yards, 50 catches and every year you think the td's are coming but never do. As you say he ends up outside the top 10. Why in the world would you pass up Green for that?

For the record, youre wrong. According to MFL and looking at drafts since Aug 1st, in all scoring systems Green's ADP is 11, Dez 12. Forte 15, SJax 20. In PPR Forte moves up to 13 but AJ and Dez are still ahead of him. FBG's "consensus" ADP has Green 12, Dez 13, Forte 14, SJax 16.

You pass up Green for that because you can get a WR who has a good chance at producing similar numbers as Green's a round later than him. Cant say the same for the RBs.

not sure what to tell you here

http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php

I feel pretty damn sure through research and sheer number of mid round picks I can get a running back that matches Jacksons or Fortes numbers.

 

[IZ4]

I've witnessed two recent drafts (one is actually ongoing) where similar starts by two drafters had completely different results.

One drafter is an established FF player who started TE/RB/RB/QB from the 5th slot and he was lauded for his approach and "ahead of the curve" thinking. The other drafter is a 21 year old female who has never played FF before who went TE/RB/RB/QB from the 6th slot and was openly ridiculed by the majority of the league for disrupting balance and enabling players around her to acquire better talent.

The reason I bring this up is I believe how you perceive your opponents plays a key role in how you form opinions. People are prone to get stuck in their ways when it comes to how they draft but they are also stuck in their ways when it comes to how others should draft. Many people play out how the draft should go in their minds and when people do things against what they perceive as ideal, it throws them off and quite often, brings out the negative side in people.

 

[Junior McSpiffy]

I've witnessed two recent drafts (one is actually ongoing) where similar starts by two drafters had completely different results.

One drafter is an established FF player who started TE/RB/RB/QB from the 5th slot and he was lauded for his approach and "ahead of the curve" thinking. The other drafter is a 21 year old female who has never played FF before who went TE/RB/RB/QB from the 6th slot and was openly ridiculed by the majority of the league for disrupting balance and enabling players around her to acquire better talent.

The reason I bring this up is I believe how you perceive your opponents plays a key role in how you form opinions. People are prone to get stuck in their ways when it comes to how they draft but they are also stuck in their ways when it comes to how others should draft. Many people play out how the draft should go in their minds and when people do things against what they perceive as ideal, it throws them off and quite often, brings out the negative side in people.

There is a lot of groupthink and metagaming in all of this. And yes, I understand that I am an outlier in this. But then, if I'm drafting 12th and go WR/WR, then there are other guys around me who will take players on their roster who I was happy to pass on. Some may say I'm stocking their rosters with talent, but it's talent I was happy being without.

 

[Kenny Powers]

For the record the adp on a 12 team for both Jackson and Forte are both before AJ Green and Dez Bryant. I cannot fathom any scenario where I would want those 2 before Dez and certainly green. Jacksons stats have declined every year since 2009 and his carries are astronomical. Forte is just forte. He gets his 1000 yards, 50 catches and every year you think the td's are coming but never do. As you say he ends up outside the top 10. Why in the world would you pass up Green for that?

For the record, youre wrong. According to MFL and looking at drafts since Aug 1st, in all scoring systems Green's ADP is 11, Dez 12. Forte 15, SJax 20. In PPR Forte moves up to 13 but AJ and Dez are still ahead of him. FBG's "consensus" ADP has Green 12, Dez 13, Forte 14, SJax 16.

You pass up Green for that because you can get a WR who has a good chance at producing similar numbers as Green's a round later than him. Cant say the same for the RBs.

not sure what to tell you here

http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php

I feel pretty damn sure through research and sheer number of mid round picks I can get a running back that matches Jacksons or Fortes numbers.

I wont say that is a bad source but it differs from the multiple other sources.

As for your 2nd sentence,

 

[sithrich]

In my FPC draft I grabbed R.White in the 3rd round and VJax in the 4th round. Last year the difference between these two guys and Dez, AJ Green, Marshall, DT was 2 fantasy points per game or less...I see the difference being even less this year.

The drop off from picking Lynch and Morris with my first two picks and the available Rbs in rounds 3 and 4 will more than likely be more than a 2 point per game dropoff...

 

[bagger]

In start 2 RB (no flex) leagues, I really think you're overdoing it drafting 2 RBs with your first two picks. Generally, you should under-invest in the last starter for a particular position. I.e. wait on RB2 and WR3 in start 2 RB / 3 WR leagues. This leaves flexibility to unearth gems later in the draft or off the wire in season to fill out your roster. Balance among positions and grabbing the safest elite players early in a draft is the best course for success IMO. And due to attrition, no RB is truly as "safe" as an elite WR or QB, which at least partially offsets VBD guidance. That said, the way RBs are flying off the board this year, it's a dangerous game to come out of rd 1 and 2 without your RB1, particularly if you're drafting in the back half of rounds 1 and 3 and/or in >10 team leagues.

that makes no sense.You get the best value for starters, who actually go beyond what most think as a traditional starter. For example in start 3 WR league, your WR 4 will at a minimum start 3 games, or 21% of a regular 14 game fantasy season (before playoffs). When you include injury that number can easily double.

So the last thing you want to do is arbitrarily cut off when you take a "last starter" since in reality your "last starter" is substantially deeper in your depth chart most weeks than most typically think.

You want to take the most productive players who will be meaningful contributors to your team at spots in the draft that give you the greatest advantage. This is a dynamic process, will likely change as the draft occurs, but with preparation can be reasonably determined of what rounds should give the most value at each individual position.

 

[pantherclub]

For the record the adp on a 12 team for both Jackson and Forte are both before AJ Green and Dez Bryant. I cannot fathom any scenario where I would want those 2 before Dez and certainly green. Jacksons stats have declined every year since 2009 and his carries are astronomical. Forte is just forte. He gets his 1000 yards, 50 catches and every year you think the td's are coming but never do. As you say he ends up outside the top 10. Why in the world would you pass up Green for that?

For the record, youre wrong. According to MFL and looking at drafts since Aug 1st, in all scoring systems Green's ADP is 11, Dez 12. Forte 15, SJax 20. In PPR Forte moves up to 13 but AJ and Dez are still ahead of him. FBG's "consensus" ADP has Green 12, Dez 13, Forte 14, SJax 16.

You pass up Green for that because you can get a WR who has a good chance at producing similar numbers as Green's a round later than him. Cant say the same for the RBs.

not sure what to tell you here

http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php

I feel pretty damn sure through research and sheer number of mid round picks I can get a running back that matches Jacksons or Fortes numbers.

I wont say that is a bad source but it differs from the multiple other sources.

As for your 2nd sentence,

I would bet Dwill, Ballard, Matthews finish close to Jackson if not better in the final rankings. Obviously these guys are going 4,5 and 6 rounds after him.

 

[cdubz]

In my FPC draft I grabbed R.White in the 3rd round and VJax in the 4th round. Last year the difference between these two guys and Dez, AJ Green, Marshall, DT was 2 fantasy points per game or less...I see the difference being even less this year.

The drop off from picking Lynch and Morris with my first two picks and the available Rbs in rounds 3 and 4 will more than likely be more than a 2 point per game dropoff...

In the context of FPC, I don't think the appropriate comparison is 3rd or 4th round RB. It is 6th or 7th round running back.

You of course need to hit on a late round runner, but the payoff if you do can be tremendous. I took Spiller at #72 in an FPC draft last year and Ridley went at #71.

ETA: Spiller was my 2nd RB, don't remember if Ridley was the 2nd RB for that team or not.

 

[Kenny Powers]

For the record the adp on a 12 team for both Jackson and Forte are both before AJ Green and Dez Bryant. I cannot fathom any scenario where I would want those 2 before Dez and certainly green. Jacksons stats have declined every year since 2009 and his carries are astronomical. Forte is just forte. He gets his 1000 yards, 50 catches and every year you think the td's are coming but never do. As you say he ends up outside the top 10. Why in the world would you pass up Green for that?

For the record, youre wrong. According to MFL and looking at drafts since Aug 1st, in all scoring systems Green's ADP is 11, Dez 12. Forte 15, SJax 20. In PPR Forte moves up to 13 but AJ and Dez are still ahead of him. FBG's "consensus" ADP has Green 12, Dez 13, Forte 14, SJax 16.

You pass up Green for that because you can get a WR who has a good chance at producing similar numbers as Green's a round later than him. Cant say the same for the RBs.

not sure what to tell you here

http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php

I feel pretty damn sure through research and sheer number of mid round picks I can get a running back that matches Jacksons or Fortes numbers.

I wont say that is a bad source but it differs from the multiple other sources.

As for your 2nd sentence,

I would bet Dwill, Ballard, Matthews finish close to Jackson if not better in the final rankings. Obviously these guys are going 4,5 and 6 rounds after him.

Will you actually bet? Because I would make this bet with you.

 

[pantherclub]

sure I will do a sig bet, 2 out of the 3 finish within 5 spots of Jackson

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Grabbing 2 top 10 RBs in the first 2 round and grabbing 2 top 10-15 WRs is a much better strategy to build your team.

How exactly do you grab 2 top 10 RBs if you have say picks 8 and 17?

ETA: Or 12 and 13 for that matter.

I suppose it depends on how you personally rank the RBs. If you really like MJD, Chris Johnson, or Steven Ridley, you could get one of them at 17 and in your mind have 2 top 10 RBs.

If we are assuming that when drafting you know significantly more than your league mates and are going to be able to grab a top 10 RB as the 15th,16th, or 19th RB drafted (FantasyPro's PPR consensus rankings) then of course you should nab a top 10 RB.

However how have RBs drafted in those slots fared historically?

Over the past 5 years, median outcome of 15th RB drafted based on ADP is RB27, 16th is RB18 and 19th is RB21.

The median outcomes go down after that, so if you are comfortable drafting a low-end RB2 in the 2nd due to positional scarcity it may still make sense, but those median outcomes is why people look elsewhere.

TLDR; if you know the future pick a top 10 RB in the late 2nd, otherwise you might want to consider other options.

Do you have median finish for other ADP positions? RB5? RB10? How come you left out RBs 14,17, and 18?

Because we were talking about 3 specific RBs. The way I personally use this data is to group the RB draft slots into groups of 5 and take the median over that tranche which leads to more robust data IMO.

RB1-5 median of RB9

RB 6-10 median of RB13

RB11-15 median of RB23

RB 16-20 median of RB19

RB 21-25 median of RB40

RB 26-30 median of RB37

First range of numbers is position drafted.

Obviously results will vary year-to-year but I think taking medians over 5 years and looking at a larger range of draft slots gives some relatively robust data. I did this last year and median outcomes for top 2 tranches were exact same for 2007-2011 vs 2008-2012.

ETA: One interesting takeaway from this is that the RB 31-35 and RB 40-45 tranches have better median outcomes than RB 21-25 and RB 26-30.

Holy #### that is some good data

thanks

Yeah, this is good stuff. This would suggest to me that you cannot build your team around stockpiling backs in the middle and later rounds.

Would be interesting to see the same data on other positions

 

[LawFitz]

In start 2 RB (no flex) leagues, I really think you're overdoing it drafting 2 RBs with your first two picks. Generally, you should under-invest in the last starter for a particular position. I.e. wait on RB2 and WR3 in start 2 RB / 3 WR leagues. This leaves flexibility to unearth gems later in the draft or off the wire in season to fill out your roster. Balance among positions and grabbing the safest elite players early in a draft is the best course for success IMO. And due to attrition, no RB is truly as "safe" as an elite WR or QB, which at least partially offsets VBD guidance. That said, the way RBs are flying off the board this year, it's a dangerous game to come out of rd 1 and 2 without your RB1, particularly if you're drafting in the back half of rounds 1 and 3 and/or in >10 team leagues.

that makes no sense.You get the best value for starters, who actually go beyond what most think as a traditional starter. For example in start 3 WR league, your WR 4 will at a minimum start 3 games, or 21% of a regular 14 game fantasy season (before playoffs). When you include injury that number can easily double.

So the last thing you want to do is arbitrarily cut off when you take a "last starter" since in reality your "last starter" is substantially deeper in your depth chart most weeks than most typically think.

You want to take the most productive players who will be meaningful contributors to your team at spots in the draft that give you the greatest advantage. This is a dynamic process, will likely change as the draft occurs, but with preparation can be reasonably determined of what rounds should give the most value at each individual position.

It's not arbitrary. It's a calculated balance between having a well-rounded roster positionally, VBD and bewaring general RB attrition at the most expensive picks/slots.

 

[LususV]

"Calm down Francis"

Think you two are getting a little personal here...

Fantasy football theory craft has a ton of varying opinions. No need for insults.

That said I think the WR/WR argument ignores the fact that in most FPC real drafts (all people drafting, no auto picks) Calvin, Graham and a QB usually are taken, which leaves RBs like Lynch, Spiller, McCoy, Morris, available at the end of the round.

The end of rounds 3&4 have WRs White, VJax, Johnson, Etc

Grabbing 2 top 10 RBs in the first 2 round and grabbing 2 top 10-15 WRs is a much better strategy to build your team.

The team I drafted from the ten spot has Lynch, Morris, White, VJax with the first 4 picks...

I have Spiller and McCoy in my top 5, so heck yes I'll go RB if they slip to me.

 

[Kenny Powers]

sure I will do a sig bet, 2 out of the 3 finish within 5 spots of Jackson

No, I meant for money. You put $ down on FF dont you?

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

The one thing that is constant and that Powers refuses to acknowledge and address is that that 6,7 or even 8 of the top 12 ranked backs will bust or flame out.

Peterson

Foster

Martin

Charles

Lynch

Rice

Spiller

Richardson

McCoy

Morris

Forte

Jackson

So 6-8 of these guys will bust? Meaning, finish worse than RB18 say (mid level RB2). I doubt it, but can you tell me me which 6-8 of the 12 will be those busts Nostrapantherclub?

Yes 6-8 will bust outright. It happens every.single.year. You seem like a bright guy go back and look at your notes/sheets/whatever from previous years. It happens. I am not sure why you are having trouble digesting it. Most everyone else on here at least acknowledges and prepares for it. I have shown you at least 2 years worth in this thread (I am pretty sure it was this thread) but yet you simply refuse to believe.

And no, I cannot tell you which guys it will be hence my philosophy of taking the #1wr or #1QB in the first as they are way safer picks.

RB's taken in the top two rounds have the same chance of flaming out based off their ADP as round 3 or later. The only times the top RB's "flame out" are when they are injured. The rest of the time they underperform. that is two huge differences. Underperforming still brings value. Also, to count on a top 12 RB to flame out is to count on you catching lightning in a bottle with a later round RB. That's a worse chance of happening than the flame out because A: You have to assume you are in position to draft or aquire that RB, and B: that RB has to hit.

 

[pantherclub]

sure I will do a sig bet, 2 out of the 3 finish within 5 spots of Jackson

No, I meant for money. You put $ down on FF dont you?

dude, I am not going to bet some anonymous guy on the internet for money. No offense that sounds gay, if you want to do something on this board then sure. You are taking this a bit too seriously guy

 

[leedoglaw]

In a ten team I am at 10 and am getting either C. Johnson and a rb I like or two RBs I like. I think that there are enough wrs to make up for it later. Sitting at 4 in a 12 team I have a feeling RB is going to run quick and I am better off taking one the receivers available to me at that point than the RBs there. At the top of a 12 I am going RB/WR/RB. There is definitely an insane run in RB this year for those first three rounds though.

 

[cdubz]

sure I will do a sig bet, 2 out of the 3 finish within 5 spots of Jackson

No, I meant for money. You put $ down on FF dont you?

dude, I am not going to bet some anonymous guy on the internet for money. No offense that sounds gay, if you want to do something on this board then sure. You are taking this a bit too seriously guy

Yeah, saying no offense before that sounds gay doesn't make it less offensive.

 

[Kenny Powers]

sure I will do a sig bet, 2 out of the 3 finish within 5 spots of Jackson

No, I meant for money. You put $ down on FF dont you?

dude, I am not going to bet some anonymous guy on the internet for money. No offense that sounds gay, if you want to do something on this board then sure. You are taking this a bit too seriously guy

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

For the record the adp on a 12 team for both Jackson and Forte are both before AJ Green and Dez Bryant. I cannot fathom any scenario where I would want those 2 before Dez and certainly green. Jacksons stats have declined every year since 2009 and his carries are astronomical. Forte is just forte. He gets his 1000 yards, 50 catches and every year you think the td's are coming but never do. As you say he ends up outside the top 10. Why in the world would you pass up Green for that?

That's an easy answer. It's the theme of this entire thread. RB depth is remarkably poor. WR depth is remarkably deep. WR 4-20 are very, very close. WR 28 is essentially WR 18 from 4 years ago .

 

[Long Ball Larry]

In a ten team I am at 10 and am getting either C. Johnson and a rb I like or two RBs I like. I think that there are enough wrs to make up for it later. Sitting at 4 in a 12 team I have a feeling RB is going to run quick and I am better off taking one the receivers available to me at that point than the RBs there. At the top of a 12 I am going RB/WR/RB. There is definitely an insane run in RB this year for those first three rounds though.

No you're not.

 

[cdubz]

In a ten team I am at 10 and am getting either C. Johnson and a rb I like or two RBs I like. I think that there are enough wrs to make up for it later. Sitting at 4 in a 12 team I have a feeling RB is going to run quick and I am better off taking one the receivers available to me at that point than the RBs there. At the top of a 12 I am going RB/WR/RB. There is definitely an insane run in RB this year for those first three rounds though.

No you're not.

I think you are missing the OR part of the statement.

 

[kutta]

Here's what I think some of the RB/RB crowd is missing:

1. At the back end of the draft (spots 11 or 12), yes, I think we would all take any of the top 7 RB's that might fall there. We are talking about CJ, SJ, and Morris in this discussion.

2. We can all talk about "taking two top 10 RB's in the first two rounds," or "I have CJ and Morris ranked in the top five," or "The RB's you get at the end of the first will perform like such and such." But the thing is, those guys are dropping to the end of the first because they have risk. They could finish in the top 5 (doubt it). They could finish in the top 10 (maybe). They could finish in the top 20 (probably). They could finish in the top 30. we just don't know.

3. The WR's (Dez, AJ, Marshall) and TE (Graham) we are talking about here are almost all guaranteed to be top 5 performers. I would bet a LOT of money that they will all at least be top 10. Graham is almost certainly going to be the top TE. Even if it's not by a huge margin, you know his bust factor is extremely low. The same with the WR's. Those guys just are not going to bust, unless they get hurt.

It is easy to look back at the end of the season and say, "Yeah, but this guy only outscored this guy by 5 points." But if you are certain that one of the guys will be Graham, and you are uncertain on who the others will be, then of course Graham is the smart pick. Let everyone else guess as to who #2 will be.

I've always thought that VBD is a good tool, but I think it lacks a "certainty" rating. We all have our rankings, but the real reason some guys go high and some go lower is because some guys we are very certain of (AP, Foster, Calvin, Rogers, Graham, Peyton, etc.) so they deserve to go higher. I don't think that comes through with some rankings.

 

[chickensoup]

The one thing that is constant and that Powers refuses to acknowledge and address is that that 6,7 or even 8 of the top 12 ranked backs will bust or flame out.

Peterson

Foster

Martin

Charles

Lynch

Rice

Spiller

Richardson

McCoy

Morris

Forte

Jackson

So 6-8 of these guys will bust? Meaning, finish worse than RB18 say (mid level RB2). I doubt it, but can you tell me me which 6-8 of the 12 will be those busts Nostrapantherclub?

Yes 6-8 will bust outright. It happens every.single.year. You seem like a bright guy go back and look at your notes/sheets/whatever from previous years. It happens. I am not sure why you are having trouble digesting it. Most everyone else on here at least acknowledges and prepares for it. I have shown you at least 2 years worth in this thread (I am pretty sure it was this thread) but yet you simply refuse to believe.

And no, I cannot tell you which guys it will be hence my philosophy of taking the #1wr or #1QB in the first as they are way safer picks.

but bust how? a very sizable portion of the time (probably a pretty healthy majority) it's due to injury, not bad play. Injuries suck, but they are not the worst thing to happen to a fantasy football team. What really sucks is when you draft high and have bad play, which just doesnt happen nearly as often as people make it seem.

McCoy last year was a disappointment. Scored 151 points for the year. but he only played 12 games instead of 16. if you take his average and put it to 16 games, he finishes RB 11. still a disappointment from where you drafted him, but not nearly as bad. You had the opportunity to play someone else while he was out, say his backup Bryce Brown who scored you 30.8 points followed by 30.3 points the following weeks Same with Fred Jackson and Ryan Matthews. Same with McFadden for years now.

just taking yearly ranking on RB especially is disingenuous because of the injury rate. I can understand peoples points about not drafting too many RB early because you are taking an injury risk, i really can. but the nature of injuries is that it mostly only hurts you for the one week in which the player got injured, not for a season when a guy falls off a cliff or fails to live up to draft hype. As long as you make some smart decisions later in the draft (round 5 on) injuries dont matter nearly as much, which is where the largest fallout of points from top tier RB comes from.

Lets put and example out there for my next point.

Charles in 2010/2011/2012: 242/15/211

This is a guy who went from number 4, to number 96, to number 8. He counts as one of those RB who fell out of the top 10.

My point on this is that He's the same player. he just got hurt one year so fell far outside the top 10. does that mean its risky to take him? not in my mind. its risky only insofar as RB get injured at a higher rate than WR/QB do. Thats not turnover at the position.

Even times when its not injury related for a guy getting out of the top 10, its often time injury related for a guy to get INTO the top 10. whether its michael bush or CJ Spiller, these guys were stuck behind good talents, but got the opportunity to shine with injury.

 

[pantherclub]

Here's what I think some of the RB/RB crowd is missing:

1. At the back end of the draft (spots 11 or 12), yes, I think we would all take any of the top 7 RB's that might fall there. We are talking about CJ, SJ, and Morris in this discussion.

2. We can all talk about "taking two top 10 RB's in the first two rounds," or "I have CJ and Morris ranked in the top five," or "The RB's you get at the end of the first will perform like such and such." But the thing is, those guys are dropping to the end of the first because they have risk. They could finish in the top 5 (doubt it). They could finish in the top 10 (maybe). They could finish in the top 20 (probably). They could finish in the top 30. we just don't know.

3. The WR's (Dez, AJ, Marshall) and TE (Graham) we are talking about here are almost all guaranteed to be top 5 performers. I would bet a LOT of money that they will all at least be top 10. Graham is almost certainly going to be the top TE. Even if it's not by a huge margin, you know his bust factor is extremely low. The same with the WR's. Those guys just are not going to bust, unless they get hurt.

It is easy to look back at the end of the season and say, "Yeah, but this guy only outscored this guy by 5 points." But if you are certain that one of the guys will be Graham, and you are uncertain on who the others will be, then of course Graham is the smart pick. Let everyone else guess as to who #2 will be.

I've always thought that VBD is a good tool, but I think it lacks a "certainty" rating. We all have our rankings, but the real reason some guys go high and some go lower is because some guys we are very certain of (AP, Foster, Calvin, Rogers, Graham, Peyton, etc.) so they deserve to go higher. I don't think that comes through with some rankings.

another great post

 

[Long Ball Larry]

In a ten team I am at 10 and am getting either C. Johnson and a rb I like or two RBs I like. I think that there are enough wrs to make up for it later. Sitting at 4 in a 12 team I have a feeling RB is going to run quick and I am better off taking one the receivers available to me at that point than the RBs there. At the top of a 12 I am going RB/WR/RB. There is definitely an insane run in RB this year for those first three rounds though.

No you're not.

I think you are missing the OR part of the statement.

Not missing it. Don't see why there should really be any plan for Johnson at 10.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Reggie Bush ADP of 5.05?

http://football.myfantasyleague.com/2013/adp?COUNT=100&POS=Coach%2BQB%2BTMQB%2BRB%2BFB%2BWR%2BTE%2BTMTE%2BWR%2BTE%2BRB%2BWR%2BTE%2BKR%2BPK%2BTMPK%2BPN%2BTMPN%2BDef%2BST%2BOff&CUTOFF=5&FRANCHISES=10&IS_PPR=0&IS_KEEPER=0&IS_MOCK=0&TIME=1375329600

 

[pantherclub]

Reggie Bush ADP of 5.05?

http://football.myfantasyleague.com/2013/adp?COUNT=100&POS=Coach%2BQB%2BTMQB%2BRB%2BFB%2BWR%2BTE%2BTMTE%2BWR%2BTE%2BRB%2BWR%2BTE%2BKR%2BPK%2BTMPK%2BPN%2BTMPN%2BDef%2BST%2BOff&CUTOFF=5&FRANCHISES=10&IS_PPR=0&IS_KEEPER=0&IS_MOCK=0&TIME=1375329600

Yeah I think the ADP will clean itself up once the preseason kicks in and the money leagues start drafting.