RBs to Exploit/Avoid Week 2 (1 Viewer)

[Captain Hook]

St Louis at Oakland (-3.5) (37.5)

I am very happy for St Louis fans. I am on record as saying that selecting Sam Bradford would set the franchise back 5 years. I'm not retracting the statement after just 1 week but Bradford stood in there and was a leader on offense last week. This team is going to rally around him and you have to feel like great days are on the horizon for them. I even like the recent addition of Mark Clayton who is going to make a nice security blanket for Bradford this year and perhaps the future.

Steven Jackson – His road games out West have been pretty mediocre the past few years with numbers of 23/92@SF, 18/55@AZ, 23/66@Sea, 18/63@AZ, 16/67@Sea, 23/79@SF …not much receiving to go with it either. He was not fantastic last week except he knocked in 4 receptions for almost no yds but in PPR that was enough to pull him into the 12-13 range for points. I liked St Louis and their chances last week at home and they came very close to winning that game but on the road I am not very optimistic that Bradford will look as composed as he was last week. You got him start him but unless he can find pay dirt it might be a long slow day for him. I saw what Chris Johnson did last week but he was bottled up for awhile too and his speed is what made the biggest difference. Jackson has some jets but he is a big guy that likes contact. He'll get plenty of it in the black hole this weekend.

Great contribution as always Sean, but while I am not an SJax owner, I think you muffed this one. Assuming Jackson can go, I would expect him to get at least 25 carries against a below average Raiders run defense.......no I don't think he gets CJ numbers but I think he will be a top ten running back this week.

 

[plyka]

"Justin Forsett – Had a 32 yard run that when taken away leaves Seattle with 41 yds rushing on 20 carries. Folks this OL is a mess and they can't run block yet. I know some are thinking that Denver' defense is somewhat soft but the strength of Seattle is passing and despite Garrard getting 3 TDs last week they were kind of fluky with Mercedes Lewis and MSW was held to zero catches. Look elsewhere, this is no place you want to be starting guys at right now."

This sort of analysis is completely irrational and biased. I assure you that when you take all great performances away from an AVERAGE (defined as the mean), then it no longer can perform as an AVERAGE. It may then be an average of just the bad performances, but it is not a real averaged.

I just hate when people do that because it means they have no real argument, they can find no real stats that support their argument, and so they are forced to make some up. If you want to use a number as an AVERAGE then you must include all its components. You cannot say: "well, if you do not include all of their good rushes, and only include their bad rushes, then they have a low "average."" It makes little to no sense, unless you have a conclusion you want to find some "facts" to support with.

 

[killrobotkill]

Going with B.Jackson over S.Green and Spiller.Ugh, would have never thought that I would be starting someone off the wire in Wk 2

Join the club. I've got BJ and Cedric Benson over Spiller and Michael Bush this week.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

"Justin Forsett – Had a 32 yard run that when taken away leaves Seattle with 41 yds rushing on 20 carries. Folks this OL is a mess and they can't run block yet. I know some are thinking that Denver' defense is somewhat soft but the strength of Seattle is passing and despite Garrard getting 3 TDs last week they were kind of fluky with Mercedes Lewis and MSW was held to zero catches. Look elsewhere, this is no place you want to be starting guys at right now."

This sort of analysis is completely irrational and biased. I assure you that when you take all great performances away from an AVERAGE (defined as the mean), then it no longer can perform as an AVERAGE. It may then be an average of just the bad performances, but it is not a real averaged.

I just hate when people do that because it means they have no real argument, they can find no real stats that support their argument, and so they are forced to make some up. If you want to use a number as an AVERAGE then you must include all its components. You cannot say: "well, if you do not include all of their good rushes, and only include their bad rushes, then they have a low "average."" It makes little to no sense, unless you have a conclusion you want to find some "facts" to support with.

I love a good challenge. That was a poor entry, let me make amends.

1st half...Forsett had 2 carries for 1 yard. Julius Jones had 3 carries for 9 yards. 5 carries for 10 yards in the half.

2nd half...Seattle intercepts and returns for a TD to take a 21-6 lead. they get the ball back and surely San Fran is expecting them to try and establish the run...but that tricky Pete throws it all 7 times on a 7 play drive to take a 28-6 lead.

Later in the 3rd it turns into the Leon Washington experiment with runs of -3, 3, 5, 3, and 2...Seattle now has a total of 10 carries for 20 yds going into the 4th quarter.

Forsett has a nice run of 32 yds halfway into the 4th quarter with the game well in hand and SF in shock. now I don't know about you but I don't see a good solid running game and while taking this run or that run out of it is one thing, it's where and when this run came about and what was leading up to it when it happened. If you want to count on that every week or this scenario playing out every week go for it. My OP is pretty lengthy, probably too lengthy at times and unfortunately in that part I didn't post enough for your liking but believe me that I just don't blindly start spouting off on players and teams.

Good luck and I wish you happy hunting this week.

 

[switz]

Jamaal Charles/Thomas Jones – Both had 11 carries in the game but the results were quite a bit different for Charles who exploded for a 56 yds TD scamper in the 1st half that really showcased why he needs to get a lot of touches. Charles is the COP and everything that Dallas wishes Felix Jones was right now.

Marion Barber III – 40 yds on 10 touches. He took the field as the starter and seemed effective at times running the ball but I am starting to dislike Jason Garrett. The play calling is all over the place and at this point you have to assume Dallas is a passing team that runs the ball once in awhile to keep teams honest. Last year it was hard to predict when Barber or Jones were going to be decent calls and again this year the roles seem to be blurred as to who does what. Jack of all trades master of none seems to be the best way to describe them. And despite the Bears giving up 2 rushing TDs to Best last week they held him in check most of the game with 13 carries for only 20 yards. Chicago will have problems stopping the passing game but they will key in on the run and make Dallas as one dimensional as possible.

Felix Jones – 2 receptions added to his totals and gave him about 8 points for the week. He is not a good flex option until we see more of Dallas or they face an easier team where they might run the ball more to eat up some clock in the 2nd half. I liked what I saw of Felix, just like Barber but neither seems to get enough touches. Chicago certainly doesn't look like a juicy match up on paper right now.

Really MOP? Let's see, Charles breaks one run for 56 yards, which Jones has done pretty regularly in his NFL career, and yet somehow Charles is what the Boys WISH Jones was? I'm not in the practice of taking away plays, but 10-36 (JC) looks a lot like 8-38 (FJ) to me. Both backs are very capable of breaking a long run, as both have shown time and again.

Then Barber and Jones get equal touches last week, but you highlight Barber's 40 yards, and ignore Jones 64 yards? Jones outscored Barber, but you have Barber in black and Jones in red? For the record, Jones had 28 snaps, Barber 24, and Choice 23 - so Jones indeed is the RB with the most opportunity in Dallas.

I just wonder what your bias against Jones is based on... if you think CHI is a bad matchup, you should have both in red, since there's no reason right now to think Barber will out produce Jones.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Jamaal Charles/Thomas Jones – Both had 11 carries in the game but the results were quite a bit different for Charles who exploded for a 56 yds TD scamper in the 1st half that really showcased why he needs to get a lot of touches. Charles is the COP and everything that Dallas wishes Felix Jones was right now.

Marion Barber III – 40 yds on 10 touches. He took the field as the starter and seemed effective at times running the ball but I am starting to dislike Jason Garrett. The play calling is all over the place and at this point you have to assume Dallas is a passing team that runs the ball once in awhile to keep teams honest. Last year it was hard to predict when Barber or Jones were going to be decent calls and again this year the roles seem to be blurred as to who does what. Jack of all trades master of none seems to be the best way to describe them. And despite the Bears giving up 2 rushing TDs to Best last week they held him in check most of the game with 13 carries for only 20 yards. Chicago will have problems stopping the passing game but they will key in on the run and make Dallas as one dimensional as possible.

Felix Jones – 2 receptions added to his totals and gave him about 8 points for the week. He is not a good flex option until we see more of Dallas or they face an easier team where they might run the ball more to eat up some clock in the 2nd half. I liked what I saw of Felix, just like Barber but neither seems to get enough touches. Chicago certainly doesn't look like a juicy match up on paper right now.

Really MOP? Let's see, Charles breaks one run for 56 yards, which Jones has done pretty regularly in his NFL career, and yet somehow Charles is what the Boys WISH Jones was? I'm not in the practice of taking away plays, but 10-36 (JC) looks a lot like 8-38 (FJ) to me. Both backs are very capable of breaking a long run, as both have shown time and again.

Then Barber and Jones get equal touches last week, but you highlight Barber's 40 yards, and ignore Jones 64 yards? Jones outscored Barber, but you have Barber in black and Jones in red? For the record, Jones had 28 snaps, Barber 24, and Choice 23 - so Jones indeed is the RB with the most opportunity in Dallas.

I just wonder what your bias against Jones is based on... if you think CHI is a bad matchup, you should have both in red, since there's no reason right now to think Barber will out produce Jones.

Who takes the field as the starter? Stats don't tell the whole story. Barber was running with authority in the game. I know you are a big Felix Jones supporter and I don't have any bias towards the guy, don't own him in any leagues(maybe that's biased) but Charles has handled a full work load at times, Barber has too, Felix has not and he's in year 3. He's a COP back in my opinion. That could change but he is not the starting RB in Big D and I think most Dallas fans would side with me on that going into week 2 of this season. I could be wrong but based on what I see, Barber is the starter. But to a larger point, and what I might not have been clear on is that I don't like the play calling in Dallas at all. I think until one of these RBs gets 15-18 carries a game and they have a true identity running the ball that they will flounder in terms of wins and losses.

 

[Clifford]

Great post as usual.

Can't believe you flipped your script on McFadden. Three days ago it was all mirage and garbage time. Have you changed your mind on him or is it just for this game?

I'll start Betty White if I think it's the right decision. I learned a lot in that thread and since Bush is not going ot be 100%, factor in what McFadden can do and I get a guy that could hit the top10 this week. I think he has a much easier road to points this week than Chris Johnson does. Being thick headed about a personal opinion gets you nowhere in here. I always thought TJ Housh was a fraud at Cinci and a 2nd or 3rd banana all the way. In 2009/2010 I might be right, but if I had continued to ignore him a few years ago I was only costing myself points. I can not like McFadden's talent and long term prospects in dyansty but in week 2 of the 2010 season he has a nice match up and I owe it to everyone to admit that.

Solid. I have had a hard time with that myself. I locked onto Spiller this offseason and have him as a starter in 2 of 3 leagues. Really regretting that right now. Hoping I'm not regretting it as much by the end of week 3.

 

[Rovers]

"Justin Forsett – Had a 32 yard run that when taken away leaves Seattle with 41 yds rushing on 20 carries. Folks this OL is a mess and they can't run block yet. I know some are thinking that Denver' defense is somewhat soft but the strength of Seattle is passing and despite Garrard getting 3 TDs last week they were kind of fluky with Mercedes Lewis and MSW was held to zero catches. Look elsewhere, this is no place you want to be starting guys at right now."

This sort of analysis is completely irrational and biased. I assure you that when you take all great performances away from an AVERAGE (defined as the mean), then it no longer can perform as an AVERAGE. It may then be an average of just the bad performances, but it is not a real averaged.

I just hate when people do that because it means they have no real argument, they can find no real stats that support their argument, and so they are forced to make some up. If you want to use a number as an AVERAGE then you must include all its components. You cannot say: "well, if you do not include all of their good rushes, and only include their bad rushes, then they have a low "average."" It makes little to no sense, unless you have a conclusion you want to find some "facts" to support with.

I disagree. For instance, if you look only at Mendenhall's stat line, it looks like he had a good game. You might be left with the impression that the Steelers rushing offense was solid. It wasn't, and if you want to base your starting line up decisions soley on stats, you would be counting on the big play which for some RB's are few and far between. Players like Charles and Johnson are known for that big play ability, and produce big plays on a consistant basis. They for me are the exception, not the rule. For most RB's, where big plays occur infrequently, I prefer to look at the YPC minus the one big play and even minus a carry for loss. That gives me a much better basis for projecting how well the O line was run blocking and how effective a team's running attack is likely to be going forward. Similarly, I won't hold that one big play against Atlanta as a defense. It's an outlier.

When I attempt to do a weekly projection, especially for an RB who only occassionally has a big play, I will use his PYC and number of touches minus the big play yarage wieghed agiasnt the quality of the opposing defense's ability to shut the running game down. Then, as an aside, I take a guess at the chances of a big play, but it's much more guess than projection.

That's alot of words to say I don't want to have to rely on an RB making a big play every game when making my line up decision.

As for Forsett and any Seattle RB, I expect some very miserable showings and very few plays where they rip off 25 yards or more. If one has to start a Seattle RB, all you can do is pray for the big play, which is unlikely to come.

 

[switz]

Who takes the field as the starter? I could be wrong but based on what I see, Barber is the starter.

I'd rather have the guy who plays the most, over the guy runs the first play. And from what I hear in Dallas, Jones is the starter, and will continue to see the most snaps with the offense.

But to a larger point, and what I might not have been clear on is that I don't like the play calling in Dallas at all. I think until one of these RBs gets 15-18 carries a game and they have a true identity running the ball that they will flounder in terms of wins and losses.

I can agree with that... but that IMO would make both RBs red, not one over the other.

 

[SYMPHONY X]

Jamaal Charles/Thomas Jones – Both had 11 carries in the game but the results were quite a bit different for Charles who exploded for a 56 yds TD scamper in the 1st half that really showcased why he needs to get a lot of touches. Charles is the COP and everything that Dallas wishes Felix Jones was right now.

Marion Barber III – 40 yds on 10 touches. He took the field as the starter and seemed effective at times running the ball but I am starting to dislike Jason Garrett. The play calling is all over the place and at this point you have to assume Dallas is a passing team that runs the ball once in awhile to keep teams honest. Last year it was hard to predict when Barber or Jones were going to be decent calls and again this year the roles seem to be blurred as to who does what. Jack of all trades master of none seems to be the best way to describe them. And despite the Bears giving up 2 rushing TDs to Best last week they held him in check most of the game with 13 carries for only 20 yards. Chicago will have problems stopping the passing game but they will key in on the run and make Dallas as one dimensional as possible.

Felix Jones – 2 receptions added to his totals and gave him about 8 points for the week. He is not a good flex option until we see more of Dallas or they face an easier team where they might run the ball more to eat up some clock in the 2nd half. I liked what I saw of Felix, just like Barber but neither seems to get enough touches. Chicago certainly doesn't look like a juicy match up on paper right now.

Really MOP? Let's see, Charles breaks one run for 56 yards, which Jones has done pretty regularly in his NFL career, and yet somehow Charles is what the Boys WISH Jones was? I'm not in the practice of taking away plays, but 10-36 (JC) looks a lot like 8-38 (FJ) to me. Both backs are very capable of breaking a long run, as both have shown time and again.

Then Barber and Jones get equal touches last week, but you highlight Barber's 40 yards, and ignore Jones 64 yards? Jones outscored Barber, but you have Barber in black and Jones in red? For the record, Jones had 28 snaps, Barber 24, and Choice 23 - so Jones indeed is the RB with the most opportunity in Dallas.

I just wonder what your bias against Jones is based on... if you think CHI is a bad matchup, you should have both in red, since there's no reason right now to think Barber will out produce Jones.

Who takes the field as the starter? Stats don't tell the whole story. Barber was running with authority in the game. I know you are a big Felix Jones supporter and I don't have any bias towards the guy, don't own him in any leagues(maybe that's biased) but Charles has handled a full work load at times, Barber has too, Felix has not and he's in year 3. He's a COP back in my opinion. That could change but he is not the starting RB in Big D and I think most Dallas fans would side with me on that going into week 2 of this season. I could be wrong but based on what I see, Barber is the starter. But to a larger point, and what I might not have been clear on is that I don't like the play calling in Dallas at all. I think until one of these RBs gets 15-18 carries a game and they have a true identity running the ball that they will flounder in terms of wins and losses.

You hit the nail right on the head here MOP (and Switz). Jason Garrett is the main reason that BOTH Barber and Jones should be in red right now, and perhaps for most of this season. This is a full-blown 3-headed monster when you throw Choice into the equation as well. Watching that game Sunday night, and how the Cowboys RB's were used, left me really scratching my head.

I can't remember one time all night where any one of the RB's were in for more than 2 plays in a row. Now I ain't being paid to call the plays, but does that make any sense? Was Garrett afraid to attempt establishing the run with an injury depleted O-line? If this pattern of play calling is followed all year, then good luck to the Cowboys..they are gonna need it.

Also want to comment on the Carolina running game. I know that CAR was trailing in the 4th QTR, but even with that factoid, should Williams/Stewart have ridden the pine the whole quarter in favor of Goodson? Do we have another 3-headed monster in CAR? That sound you hear could be a lot of value falling off of Williams/Stewart this year. I am hoping for a big game from Williams this week, and may seriously think about seeing what I can get in a trade for him (but won't just give him away).

 

[Yenrub]

Great work as usual MOP, I love this thread.

Once again I am trying to decide between Pierre and Bradshaw as my #2 RB. Last week I went with PT just because I drafted him higher than I did Bradshaw.

This week I am leaning toward Bradshaw because of what Foster did to the Colts on the ground last week. Any reason I should go with PT instead of Bradshaw?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Great work as usual MOP, I love this thread.Once again I am trying to decide between Pierre and Bradshaw as my #2 RB. Last week I went with PT just because I drafted him higher than I did Bradshaw. This week I am leaning toward Bradshaw because of what Foster did to the Colts on the ground last week. Any reason I should go with PT instead of Bradshaw?

Read the 1st paragraph of the OP. Here I'll help...don't chase points. The 42 Foster got, Bradshaw won't see half of those this week. Just my opinion but Thomas does have a tougher defense to attack right now.You guys do get some of the hardest decisions to deal with. OK, if you have slam dunks at other positions...WR/QB/TE and you just need to make sure you get some points I would plug in Thomas, but if you need the home run threat from that position then roll the dice on Bradshaw. Does that help? WIthout seeing a total roster and scoring situation which nobody wants to read I can't really advise what is best. I'm about as useful as a 1 arm wallpaper hanger.Shoot me a PM with more info and I'll take a look.

 

[Grahamburn]

Miami at Minnesota (-5.5) (39.5)

Neither team looked good last week and Miami just lucked out and got a win. Minnesota is in the middle of a lot of trade rumors for WRs including Vincent Jackson. The coaching staff has no faith in half their roster on offense and while Miami is not a great team by any stretch, if they were focused and can get a ground game established, a tall task against the Williams boys inside, but if they could perhaps they can sneak a win on the road before the schedule gets even worse. Maybe this writer is just dreaming.

Ronnie Brown/Ricky Williams – He had a nice week going but the split last week was Ricky with 18 carries and Ronnie with 13. Brown did get the red zone run and cashed it in but I'm not sure they will use Ronnie exclusively at the goal line. Here is what Ronnie has done in domes over the years…@NO-23/106, @Det-15/68, @StL-15/48/TD, @Atl-10/43…I don't see big things for Miami's running game on the road in Minnesota against a pretty strong defense. Best case scenario might be 60/TD, but remember that he splits time with Ricky, a lot of time. If you go with Ricky, he does seem to get a better ypc avg in the domes, he is familiar with them from his days in New Orleans but right now Miami is almost one of those teams where you really can't start either of these guys with a lot of confidence.

I wanted to discuss the Miami ground game a little bit. Ronnie was able to do quite a bit more with his carries last week than Ricky was. This team has invested a lot of money in their offensive line, and they can be dominant running the football if they stick to it. How much Wildcat could we see in this game?Is Minnesota's defense really that good inside anymore? The Williams boys are another year older and their linebackers aren't overly impressive to me. The Saints ran the ball with decent success in the Thursday night game averaging a little over 4 yards per carry from their backs, and they were especially good in obvious running situations where the Vikings had to get stops.

If Minnesota's offense struggles to move the ball again I think you could see alot of runs from the Dolphins in this game.

 

[Yenrub]

Great work as usual MOP, I love this thread.Once again I am trying to decide between Pierre and Bradshaw as my #2 RB. Last week I went with PT just because I drafted him higher than I did Bradshaw. This week I am leaning toward Bradshaw because of what Foster did to the Colts on the ground last week. Any reason I should go with PT instead of Bradshaw?

Read the 1st paragraph of the OP. Here I'll help...don't chase points. The 42 Foster got, Bradshaw won't see half of those this week. Just my opinion but Thomas does have a tougher defense to attack right now.You guys do get some of the hardest decisions to deal with. OK, if you have slam dunks at other positions...WR/QB/TE and you just need to make sure you get some points I would plug in Thomas, but if you need the home run threat from that position then roll the dice on Bradshaw. Does that help? WIthout seeing a total roster and scoring situation which nobody wants to read I can't really advise what is best. I'm about as useful as a 1 arm wallpaper hanger.Shoot me a PM with more info and I'll take a look.

PM sent

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Miami at Minnesota (-5.5) (39.5)

Neither team looked good last week and Miami just lucked out and got a win. Minnesota is in the middle of a lot of trade rumors for WRs including Vincent Jackson. The coaching staff has no faith in half their roster on offense and while Miami is not a great team by any stretch, if they were focused and can get a ground game established, a tall task against the Williams boys inside, but if they could perhaps they can sneak a win on the road before the schedule gets even worse. Maybe this writer is just dreaming.

Ronnie Brown/Ricky Williams – He had a nice week going but the split last week was Ricky with 18 carries and Ronnie with 13. Brown did get the red zone run and cashed it in but I'm not sure they will use Ronnie exclusively at the goal line. Here is what Ronnie has done in domes over the years…@NO-23/106, @Det-15/68, @StL-15/48/TD, @Atl-10/43…I don't see big things for Miami's running game on the road in Minnesota against a pretty strong defense. Best case scenario might be 60/TD, but remember that he splits time with Ricky, a lot of time. If you go with Ricky, he does seem to get a better ypc avg in the domes, he is familiar with them from his days in New Orleans but right now Miami is almost one of those teams where you really can't start either of these guys with a lot of confidence.

I wanted to discuss the Miami ground game a little bit. Ronnie was able to do quite a bit more with his carries last week than Ricky was. This team has invested a lot of money in their offensive line, and they can be dominant running the football if they stick to it. How much Wildcat could we see in this game?Is Minnesota's defense really that good inside anymore? The Williams boys are another year older and their linebackers aren't overly impressive to me. The Saints ran the ball with decent success in the Thursday night game averaging a little over 4 yards per carry from their backs, and they were especially good in obvious running situations where the Vikings had to get stops.

If Minnesota's offense struggles to move the ball again I think you could see alot of runs from the Dolphins in this game.

I gotta think about this but any other locals down here chime in.Sporano was on the radio and spoke about them getting yards that weren't really there, grinding it out and making plays where there weren't any...coachspeak for the OL ain't playing good. And that was against the Bills.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

Arian Foster – ... Yes he's good, high powered offense, but I look for Schaub to throw it a little more this week and Foster will be hard pressed to hit the top5 again this week. Probably even the top10. Washington did allow 95 yds on 19 carries to the Dallas RBs but for some reason Dallas stopped running the football. Foster will do fine this week ...

So, what kind of numbers do you expect for Foster?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Arian Foster – ... Yes he's good, high powered offense, but I look for Schaub to throw it a little more this week and Foster will be hard pressed to hit the top5 again this week. Probably even the top10. Washington did allow 95 yds on 19 carries to the Dallas RBs but for some reason Dallas stopped running the football. Foster will do fine this week ...

So, what kind of numbers do you expect for Foster?

Foster had 230 rush yds last week and Schaub had 100 passing...I might flip that around for starters and then slice it down some more from there. There were owners who didn't play him last week and many will try and chase ponts this week. He'll do alright but I could see him working hard in this game to scrape up 100 total yds and miss the end zone as Houston attempts to throw the ball a little more. I love Foster, own him in many leagues, but I'm not ready to start penciling him in for 20+ every week.

 

[Judge Smails]

Arian Foster – ... Yes he's good, high powered offense, but I look for Schaub to throw it a little more this week and Foster will be hard pressed to hit the top5 again this week. Probably even the top10. Washington did allow 95 yds on 19 carries to the Dallas RBs but for some reason Dallas stopped running the football. Foster will do fine this week ...

So, what kind of numbers do you expect for Foster?

Foster had 230 rush yds last week and Schaub had 100 passing...I might flip that around for starters and then slice it down some more from there. There were owners who didn't play him last week and many will try and chase ponts this week. He'll do alright but I could see him working hard in this game to scrape up 100 total yds and miss the end zone as Houston attempts to throw the ball a little more. I love Foster, own him in many leagues, but I'm not ready to start penciling him in for 20+ every week.

Unless they play a top 3 run defense I do see Foster getting 20 carries + or - a few every week. They should have the lead in a lot of games. Teams can't stack the box. If you let Schaub throw too much he will throw INT's. Clock grinds. Kubiak loves what he has. They will be balanced unless they need to exploit a weakness or what the defenses are giving them. Foster won't average 7 YPC every week for sure. But I could see 20 carrries and a 4.5 YPC many weeks.

 

[Breesisdaman]

I am having a hard time with Foster and this matchup as well. Considering my other two options are SJAX and L. McCoy. Has Foster reached every week must start status enough to put McCoy against the Lions on your bench? The only reason I havent plugged in McCoy yet is the uncertainty with the Full back and O line injuries and of coarse Vick. How many carries will Vick take away from McCoy. Where is my damn crystal ball at any way.

 

[Jimbo Slice]

Im struggling picking my RB2 and Flex. .5ppr, .25ppcarry

starting Peterson

then 2 of:

Addai vs NYG -should get more work this week than last, but still a question mark as to his production every week.

Best vs Philly -he gets all the touches but hasnt done much with them (2 td's aside), tough D but if Bradleys out that should help.

Mcfadden vs STL -if Bush sits out again he's a no-brainer right?

Stewart vs TB -Always does well against TB, but probably not going to beat out my other options with a healthy Deangelo around.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Im struggling picking my RB2 and Flex. .5ppr, .25ppcarry

starting Peterson

then 2 of:

Addai vs NYG -should get more work this week than last, but still a question mark as to his production every week.

Best vs Philly -he gets all the touches but hasnt done much with them (2 td's aside), tough D but if Bradleys out that should help.

Mcfadden vs STL -if Bush sits out again he's a no-brainer right?

Stewart vs TB -Always does well against TB, but probably not going to beat out my other options with a healthy Deangelo around.

Addai is not a mystery, he has been in the league 4 yeard and is fairly consistent. McFadden has a nice match up this week.

Best is an unknown

Stewart is not the starter

 

[Ariakis]

I think I'm starting BJax over Moss as my flex, non PPR. I don't think I need a monster game and in that offense in theory he's got a lower floor as he'll atleast get 15 touches. At only 24 years old I really need him to step up to lessen the sting of losing Hardesty and Grant already from my dynasty roster.

 

[Gr00vus]

BTW I think MJD has a field day vs SD.

This is a great matchup for MJD. The Chargers' run defense wasn't good last year and doesn't seem much improved this year. Get out the green font for this guy.

 

[Max Maximus]

Arian Foster – ... Yes he's good, high powered offense, but I look for Schaub to throw it a little more this week and Foster will be hard pressed to hit the top5 again this week. Probably even the top10. Washington did allow 95 yds on 19 carries to the Dallas RBs but for some reason Dallas stopped running the football. Foster will do fine this week ...

So, what kind of numbers do you expect for Foster?

Foster had 230 rush yds last week and Schaub had 100 passing...I might flip that around for starters and then slice it down some more from there. There were owners who didn't play him last week and many will try and chase ponts this week. He'll do alright but I could see him working hard in this game to scrape up 100 total yds and miss the end zone as Houston attempts to throw the ball a little more. I love Foster, own him in many leagues, but I'm not ready to start penciling him in for 20+ every week.

Unless they play a top 3 run defense I do see Foster getting 20 carries + or - a few every week. They should have the lead in a lot of games. Teams can't stack the box. If you let Schaub throw too much he will throw INT's. Clock grinds. Kubiak loves what he has. They will be balanced unless they need to exploit a weakness or what the defenses are giving them. Foster won't average 7 YPC every week for sure. But I could see 20 carrries and a 4.5 YPC many weeks.

I want to temper my expectations with Foster too (he was my keeper from last year). I know HOU coach is not very forgiving to players who fumble. Kubiak can easily give the rock to Slaton if Foster has a fumble. I don't fully trust Kubiak.. yet.

 

[OnTheReg]

I'm debating between Foster and Moreno but I think I'll go with Foster.

 

[The Jacket]

Start Charles with confidence. If anyone really thinks Charles will get just 11 carries again, they're mistaken. And if they think the Browns will prevent him from breaking a big play, they're just not paying attention.

Great post (as always), but the problem I have with you on Charles is that you're basically NEVER going to recommend him. You didn't green-light him last week even though you said you were tempted. The guy scores and averages 9 ypc and he's still not a play. I can't believe people don't see his week 1 touches as the absolute floor. I've already post multiple times about Haley's gameplan (which worked) due to the conditions.

I see his floor this week being 15 carries and 3 receptions. And if you want to take anyone else in the NFL other than CJ3 over Charles on a per-touch basis, best of luck to ya.

 

[shadyridr]

Goin with Jackson over Benson & Thomas and feel confident its the right move

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Goin with Jackson over Benson & Thomas and feel confident its the right move

Get down with your bad self!

 

[footballdiva]

I'm thinking of B. Jackson over Mendy & Bradshaw but I have a feeling I'll switch back to Bradshaw. This year is very difficult!

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I'm thinking of B. Jackson over Mendy & Bradshaw but I have a feeling I'll switch back to Bradshaw. This year is very difficult!

This is really Bradshaw vs Jackson...Maybe both will be solid. GB should blow out Buffalo so Jackson could get a lot of carries. Bradshaw had half of his carries when NY was running out the clock. Do you think NY will be running out the clock this week? I don't.

 

[footballdiva]

I'm thinking of B. Jackson over Mendy & Bradshaw but I have a feeling I'll switch back to Bradshaw. This year is very difficult!

This is really Bradshaw vs Jackson...Maybe both will be solid. GB should blow out Buffalo so Jackson could get a lot of carries. Bradshaw had half of his carries when NY was running out the clock. Do you think NY will be running out the clock this week? I don't.

Thanmks for your sage advice MOP! I'm trying to trade BJax but I do currentlt have him as my starting RB2.

 

[karmarooster]

Chris Johnson – No one is going to do it but you saw what the Steelers did to Turner last week and I expect Chris Johnson's streak of 100 yd games to come to a crashing halt this week. You should think about sitting him this week although I understand everyone is going to start him. I own him in many leagues and I'm not sure I can take my own advice here but if you remove the emotion from it you will understand that this could be Johnson's worst game of the season. How bad will CJ perform? I would safely rank him outside the top10 this week, if he cracked the top20 I would be a little surprised. Tennessee has worked on their passing game and Johnson was bottled up early last week even allowing for Javon Ringer to make an appearance but once Young connected with Nate Washington it opened up the flood gates for Johnson on the ground. I still think Pitt is strong enough to stick with making Young beat them this week.

I'm thinking about sitting CJ this week in favor of Gore and PThomas.... gotta pick 2 of the 3 in .5 PPR. BUT i just don't think i can do it. i hear what you're saying, and last year in week 1 the steelers shut down CJ. He ran for 57 yards, 2nd worst showing of the year last year, and tied for his worst YPC for the year. i agree with you 100% - this is CJ's toughest matchup for the year. also polamalu is healthy.

But things have changed, as you might say, since then. The titans use CJ more effectively now, and VYoung's presence is a benefit.

eh.... seems like one of those calls no matter what i do it will be the wrong call!

 

[The Jerk]

"Justin Forsett – Had a 32 yard run that when taken away leaves Seattle with 41 yds rushing on 20 carries. Folks this OL is a mess and they can't run block yet. I know some are thinking that Denver' defense is somewhat soft but the strength of Seattle is passing and despite Garrard getting 3 TDs last week they were kind of fluky with Mercedes Lewis and MSW was held to zero catches. Look elsewhere, this is no place you want to be starting guys at right now."

This sort of analysis is completely irrational and biased. I assure you that when you take all great performances away from an AVERAGE (defined as the mean), then it no longer can perform as an AVERAGE. It may then be an average of just the bad performances, but it is not a real averaged.

I just hate when people do that because it means they have no real argument, they can find no real stats that support their argument, and so they are forced to make some up. If you want to use a number as an AVERAGE then you must include all its components. You cannot say: "well, if you do not include all of their good rushes, and only include their bad rushes, then they have a low "average."" It makes little to no sense, unless you have a conclusion you want to find some "facts" to support with.

I disagree. For instance, if you look only at Mendenhall's stat line, it looks like he had a good game. You might be left with the impression that the Steelers rushing offense was solid. It wasn't, and if you want to base your starting line up decisions soley on stats, you would be counting on the big play which for some RB's are few and far between. Players like Charles and Johnson are known for that big play ability, and produce big plays on a consistant basis. They for me are the exception, not the rule. For most RB's, where big plays occur infrequently, I prefer to look at the YPC minus the one big play and even minus a carry for loss. That gives me a much better basis for projecting how well the O line was run blocking and how effective a team's running attack is likely to be going forward. Similarly, I won't hold that one big play against Atlanta as a defense. It's an outlier.

When I attempt to do a weekly projection, especially for an RB who only occassionally has a big play, I will use his PYC and number of touches minus the big play yarage wieghed agiasnt the quality of the opposing defense's ability to shut the running game down. Then, as an aside, I take a guess at the chances of a big play, but it's much more guess than projection.

That's alot of words to say I don't want to have to rely on an RB making a big play every game when making my line up decision.

As for Forsett and any Seattle RB, I expect some very miserable showings and very few plays where they rip off 25 yards or more. If one has to start a Seattle RB, all you can do is pray for the big play, which is unlikely to come.

I agree more with plyka than Rovers. The "remove this one play and ..." statistical angle gets overplayed. The actual -- not fantasy -- game of football is often decided by which team makes more big plays. Aggressive defenses purposely try to force negative or no gain plays by the offense, daring the offense to beat them with the big play. Are there any examples of 20 carries for 85 yards games that involve all 3, 4 or 5 yard gains with nothing more or less?Now, Rovers (and others) have a point in considering whether a big play accounts for a huge proportion of a given player's production. Smart FF owners must factor in the frequency/likelihood of big plays when considering whether to start a "boom/bust" player vs. a plodder, for lack of a better term. I do this at times, too.

However, my biggest problem with the "remove this one play and ..." approach is that it is arbitrarily applied. People seem to cherry pick certain players -- in Rovers' case, Mendenhall -- and penalize ONLY them.

Let's look at 2010 Week 1. Specifically, the top ten running backs in yardage, which is actually 11 due to a 10th place tie.

Here's the list.

Arian Foster 33 231 7.00Chris Johnson 27 142 5.26Rashard Mendenhall 22 120 5.45Maurice Jones-Drew 23 98 4.26Darren McFadden 18 95 5.28Jamaal Charles 11 92 8.36Adrian Peterson 19 87 4.58Steven Jackson 22 81 3.68Ahmad Bradshaw 20 76 3.80Ryan Mathews 19 75 3.95Cadillac Williams 22 75 3.41Here's the list with EVERY player's longest gain removed.

Arian Foster		32	189	5.91Darren McFadden	 17	 82	4.82Adrian Peterson	 18	 73	4.06Maurice Jones-Drew  22	 80	3.64Jamaal Charles	  10	 36	3.60Rashard Mendenhall  21	 70	3.33Ryan Mathews		18	 60	3.33Steven Jackson	  21	 63	3.00Cadillac Williams   21	 55	2.62Chris Johnson	   26	 66	2.54Ahmad Bradshaw	  19	 37	1.95

Why all the grief for Mendenhall? Not just in this thread, mind you, but others and in the media. Should not similar concerns or worse be discussed for Steven Jackson and, yes, Chris Johnson?A running back who can break long runs should not be punished for this ability. It's a big part of every team's rushing game.

In 2009, there were a total of 14088 rushes for 59739 (includes ALL rushes, not just RBs). Translating, it's 4.24 yards per carry.

There were 360 rushes of 20 yards or longer (75 for 40 yards or longer). Removing all of these rushes lowers the average rush to 3.71 yards per carry.

And note that the real average would most likely be closer to 3.6 ypc because all I did was remove the 20 and 40 yards per rush, not the actual rush, including at least three over 80 yards.

Understand, those 360 rushes make up only 0.53% of all carries leaguewide for a season.

Removing one carry from Mendenhall accounted for 4.5% of his Week 1 carries. For CJ, it's 3.7%

Well, you can't remove even one percent of the total leagues rushes without lowering the leaguewide average more than half a yard per carry. It's the same for the players. RBs with 4+ ypc averages rarely get them without a number of big plays that raise their otherwise 3.5 or so yard per carry average.

Remove 13 of Chris Johnson's rushes from last season and he loses 670 yards (by my count, excuse any mistakes in my manual review). He's left with 345 rushes for 1336 yards. What a bum! 3.87 yards per carry. You say, that's ridiculous... and OF COURSE IT IS but it's not that different than removing Mendenhall's one rush. Those 13 plays of Johnson are fewer than one per game.

 

[switz]

Smart FF owners must factor in the frequency/likelihood of big plays when considering whether to start a "boom/bust" player vs. a plodder, for lack of a better term. I do this at times, too.However, my biggest problem with the "remove this one play and ..." approach is that it is arbitrarily applied. People seem to cherry pick certain players -- in Rovers' case, Mendenhall -- and penalize ONLY them.

I think it's perfectly fair to question a players ability to duplicate an explosive long run, when that player has no real track record of producing those long runs in the NFL. It's not arbitrary at all. We don't say "if you remove his long carry" about Chris Johnson, because he does it time and again. Same thing with Jamaal Charles. But Mendenhall... it's not arbitrary to question his ability to duplicate a long run, he broke only one run longer than 40 yards last year, only 5 over 30 yards.You discount things that odds indicate you cannot depend on. You can depend on some players breaking long runs, you cannot depend on others doing the same. Arbitrary implies there is no basis for deciding when to apply a principle, but that's not the case here.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Jamaal Charles/Thomas Jones – Both had 11 carries in the game but the results were quite a bit different for Charles who exploded for a 56 yds TD scamper in the 1st half that really showcased why he needs to get a lot of touches. Charles is the COP and everything that Dallas wishes Felix Jones was right now.

Marion Barber III – 40 yds on 10 touches. He took the field as the starter and seemed effective at times running the ball but I am starting to dislike Jason Garrett. The play calling is all over the place and at this point you have to assume Dallas is a passing team that runs the ball once in awhile to keep teams honest. Last year it was hard to predict when Barber or Jones were going to be decent calls and again this year the roles seem to be blurred as to who does what. Jack of all trades master of none seems to be the best way to describe them. And despite the Bears giving up 2 rushing TDs to Best last week they held him in check most of the game with 13 carries for only 20 yards. Chicago will have problems stopping the passing game but they will key in on the run and make Dallas as one dimensional as possible.

Felix Jones – 2 receptions added to his totals and gave him about 8 points for the week. He is not a good flex option until we see more of Dallas or they face an easier team where they might run the ball more to eat up some clock in the 2nd half. I liked what I saw of Felix, just like Barber but neither seems to get enough touches. Chicago certainly doesn't look like a juicy match up on paper right now.

Really MOP? Let's see, Charles breaks one run for 56 yards, which Jones has done pretty regularly in his NFL career, and yet somehow Charles is what the Boys WISH Jones was? I'm not in the practice of taking away plays, but 10-36 (JC) looks a lot like 8-38 (FJ) to me. Both backs are very capable of breaking a long run, as both have shown time and again.

Then Barber and Jones get equal touches last week, but you highlight Barber's 40 yards, and ignore Jones 64 yards? Jones outscored Barber, but you have Barber in black and Jones in red? For the record, Jones had 28 snaps, Barber 24, and Choice 23 - so Jones indeed is the RB with the most opportunity in Dallas.

I just wonder what your bias against Jones is based on... if you think CHI is a bad matchup, you should have both in red, since there's no reason right now to think Barber will out produce Jones.

Who takes the field as the starter? Stats don't tell the whole story. Barber was running with authority in the game. I know you are a big Felix Jones supporter and I don't have any bias towards the guy, don't own him in any leagues(maybe that's biased) but Charles has handled a full work load at times, Barber has too, Felix has not and he's in year 3. He's a COP back in my opinion. That could change but he is not the starting RB in Big D and I think most Dallas fans would side with me on that going into week 2 of this season. I could be wrong but based on what I see, Barber is the starter. But to a larger point, and what I might not have been clear on is that I don't like the play calling in Dallas at all. I think until one of these RBs gets 15-18 carries a game and they have a true identity running the ball that they will flounder in terms of wins and losses.

I think both Jones and Barber looked decent last week, if that's possible in a 7 point offensive performance. I think you give Felix a slight edge in PPR leagues and Barber a slight edge in standard leagues but I think both are a reach to start in any format until the Cowboys show they can get over the offensive line problems they have.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Chris Johnson – No one is going to do it but you saw what the Steelers did to Turner last week and I expect Chris Johnson's streak of 100 yd games to come to a crashing halt this week. You should think about sitting him this week although I understand everyone is going to start him. I own him in many leagues and I'm not sure I can take my own advice here but if you remove the emotion from it you will understand that this could be Johnson's worst game of the season. How bad will CJ perform? I would safely rank him outside the top10 this week, if he cracked the top20 I would be a little surprised. Tennessee has worked on their passing game and Johnson was bottled up early last week even allowing for Javon Ringer to make an appearance but once Young connected with Nate Washington it opened up the flood gates for Johnson on the ground. I still think Pitt is strong enough to stick with making Young beat them this week.

I'm thinking about sitting CJ this week in favor of Gore and PThomas.... gotta pick 2 of the 3 in .5 PPR. BUT i just don't think i can do it. i hear what you're saying, and last year in week 1 the steelers shut down CJ. He ran for 57 yards, 2nd worst showing of the year last year, and tied for his worst YPC for the year. i agree with you 100% - this is CJ's toughest matchup for the year. also polamalu is healthy.

But things have changed, as you might say, since then. The titans use CJ more effectively now, and VYoung's presence is a benefit.

eh.... seems like one of those calls no matter what i do it will be the wrong call!

Don't ever think about benching Chris Johnson. There may be weeks where you have a RB on your bench outscore him but don't start going down the road where you overthink yourself. Chris Johnson should be in your lineup every single week unless he's ruled out due to injury or Tennessee has clinched a playoff spot and Fisher says he's resting players. Against any defense, any defense he can bust a short pass or run for a TD turning a crummy day into a good one instantly. It may not happen but he's that good where it can. Don't even think about benching him for the rest of this year.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

St Louis at Oakland (-3.5) (37.5)

I am very happy for St Louis fans. I am on record as saying that selecting Sam Bradford would set the franchise back 5 years. I'm not retracting the statement after just 1 week but Bradford stood in there and was a leader on offense last week. This team is going to rally around him and you have to feel like great days are on the horizon for them. I even like the recent addition of Mark Clayton who is going to make a nice security blanket for Bradford this year and perhaps the future.

Steven Jackson – His road games out West have been pretty mediocre the past few years with numbers of 23/92@SF, 18/55@AZ, 23/66@Sea, 18/63@AZ, 16/67@Sea, 23/79@SF …not much receiving to go with it either. He was not fantastic last week except he knocked in 4 receptions for almost no yds but in PPR that was enough to pull him into the 12-13 range for points. I liked St Louis and their chances last week at home and they came very close to winning that game but on the road I am not very optimistic that Bradford will look as composed as he was last week. You got him start him but unless he can find pay dirt it might be a long slow day for him. I saw what Chris Johnson did last week but he was bottled up for awhile too and his speed is what made the biggest difference. Jackson has some jets but he is a big guy that likes contact. He'll get plenty of it in the black hole this weekend.

Great contribution as always Sean, but while I am not an SJax owner, I think you muffed this one. Assuming Jackson can go, I would expect him to get at least 25 carries against a below average Raiders run defense.......no I don't think he gets CJ numbers but I think he will be a top ten running back this week.

Agreed, how Oakland looked last week I don't know how you bench or consider benching a guy like Jackson who you took in the 1st round. If you bench Jackson against the Raiders, you should never have had enough confidence in drafting him in the first place. The risk on Jackson is he isn't healthy and may miss games, so if you're going to bench him against teams like the Raiders when he IS playing, what the heck, why is he on your roster in the first place.

Start Jackson with confidence, he should find the endzone this week against a bad Oakland team.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Smart FF owners must factor in the frequency/likelihood of big plays when considering whether to start a "boom/bust" player vs. a plodder, for lack of a better term. I do this at times, too.However, my biggest problem with the "remove this one play and ..." approach is that it is arbitrarily applied. People seem to cherry pick certain players -- in Rovers' case, Mendenhall -- and penalize ONLY them.

I think it's perfectly fair to question a players ability to duplicate an explosive long run, when that player has no real track record of producing those long runs in the NFL. It's not arbitrary at all. We don't say "if you remove his long carry" about Chris Johnson, because he does it time and again. Same thing with Jamaal Charles. But Mendenhall... it's not arbitrary to question his ability to duplicate a long run, he broke only one run longer than 40 yards last year, only 5 over 30 yards.You discount things that odds indicate you cannot depend on. You can depend on some players breaking long runs, you cannot depend on others doing the same. Arbitrary implies there is no basis for deciding when to apply a principle, but that's not the case here.

I think you make some good points Fitz but Charles ended the season last year on fire and his long TD run kind of carries over from last year and they don't have the offensive line problems that Dallas has currently. I appreciate your enthusiasm for F. Jones but if I had to rank one over the other this week I'd have to go with Charles over Felix due to situation, opponent and offensive lines. I do agree with you though that if one thinks Felix is a bad or neutral matchup, it should be the same for Barber because there's no real proof on what the Cowboys are going to do inside the 5 yard line. For all i know, T. Choice will come in at the 1 yard line in some wild cat formation and run it in.

 

[nerangers]

I am having a hard time with Foster and this matchup as well. Considering my other two options are SJAX and L. McCoy. Has Foster reached every week must start status enough to put McCoy against the Lions on your bench? The only reason I havent plugged in McCoy yet is the uncertainty with the Full back and O line injuries and of coarse Vick. How many carries will Vick take away from McCoy. Where is my damn crystal ball at any way.

Hi MOP,Good stuff as always. I think there have been two people questioning the start of McCoy based on the injured Center and the possibility of Vick cutting into McCoy's numbers. I didn't see any kind of reply, but I might have missed it as well. I been on the fence on this one as well. If you feel McCoy is a good play, what are you thinking his numbers are going to be like? If I remember right, Vick was the #1 rusher for the Eagles last week, and I still think he will rush if he doesn't see a play developing right away. Detroit gave up a lot of rushing yards, so I can see why McCoy should be a good play here. Guess the unknown factor is Vick. I didn't look to see what McCoy's numbers were like before Vick came into the game.

 

[Donsmith753]

Really enjoyed the read again this week and glad I took your advice and rolled with Foster over Moreno last week, that worked out well for me.

I'm in even more of a mess this week trying to sort out who I'll start but will give out my current thoughts on the matchups.

It's a start 3RB non ppr league with 1pt per 5yds rushing (heavy on yardage) and I'm currently rostering 6.

ADP - Mia

Foster - @Was

Moreno - Sea

Matthews - Jac

Caddy - @Car

Gerhart - Mia

Can rule out Gerhart and ADP straight off the bat as they really are a no brainer, picking two from the other four is a bit more complex though.

Foster - Despite his awesome showing last week I'm just not convinced yet. I don't see an elite skillset from the guy and think that he's so much a product of the system. Indy's run D was especially bad and I wonder how he'll do against a more solid unit. I tried to move him this week but couldn't get any takers at a reasonable price. I think I probably HAVE to start him just incase he is the real deal but I'm not entirely comfortable with it.

Moreno - Any runner with a hamstring issue is a concern for me. I know he ran relatively well last week and put up a fairly decent stat line but I'm just not totally ready to commit. Seattle's D doesn't scare me and he'll get the majority of the carries which is always good. He's currently in my lineup but I'm just not sure. He seems likely to get into the endzone which is always good.

Matthews - With little access to games over here I decided to download one last week, picked the KC/SD game. Wasn't sure what to make out of Matthews, bit of a mixed bag. I understand that with it being his first NFL action I shouldn't have expected too much but it seemed that too often he was heading straight up the middle for short gains. I think this is probably as much to do with SD's well documented Oline issues but it's a concern none the less. The mix up on the play action and his subsequent pull from the game was also a concern.

Caddy - He's the outsider of the group for me as I don't think he's as talented as the others and I don't like the matchup. I think the Bucs fall behind early in this game and Caddy got most of his yards last week when they were trying to close out the game.

Currently I'm thinking probably Foster and Moreno but think Matthews could also have a big game.

Curious for opinions on who to go for.

Oh and everyone should start CJ, you'll forgive yourself if an unexpected bench player goes off but not if you bench your 1st overall pick and he plays like he should.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I am having a hard time with Foster and this matchup as well. Considering my other two options are SJAX and L. McCoy. Has Foster reached every week must start status enough to put McCoy against the Lions on your bench? The only reason I havent plugged in McCoy yet is the uncertainty with the Full back and O line injuries and of coarse Vick. How many carries will Vick take away from McCoy. Where is my damn crystal ball at any way.

Hi MOP,Good stuff as always. I think there have been two people questioning the start of McCoy based on the injured Center and the possibility of Vick cutting into McCoy's numbers. I didn't see any kind of reply, but I might have missed it as well. I been on the fence on this one as well. If you feel McCoy is a good play, what are you thinking his numbers are going to be like? If I remember right, Vick was the #1 rusher for the Eagles last week, and I still think he will rush if he doesn't see a play developing right away. Detroit gave up a lot of rushing yards, so I can see why McCoy should be a good play here. Guess the unknown factor is Vick. I didn't look to see what McCoy's numbers were like before Vick came into the game.

When Philly was down 27-10 I could understand why Vick was running wild. But this week they play a Detroit Lions team that is whithout their starting QB and I am betting that they try and get the running game going so Vick is not asked to totally win the game on his own. I like the fact people have pointed out the Center and FB are out this week, in fact Weaver is gone for the season but I would hope Andy Reid sees the value in getting McCot active this week. I see about 14-15 carries for him, 3-4 receptions, somewhere in the 17-20 range for touches and hopefully a TD against the Lions. Forte was hurting them last week because they were concerned about Calvin Johnson. This week they have to stop DeSean, Maclin, Celek, Mccoy should be open a lot on checkdowns and in PPR league I see McCoy having a solid day. Remember that I use the grann and red to get folks attention to players that should go over their usual avg or under it, sometimes I like to light up a guy like Turner who was way under last week and I want owners to feel pretty solid in staring him this week. Some day maybe I'll rank players 1-40 but I mostly leave that stuff for FBG, I would rather talk about this.Good to hear form you Neranger, been awhile.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Really enjoyed the read again this week and glad I took your advice and rolled with Foster over Moreno last week, that worked out well for me.I'm in even more of a mess this week trying to sort out who I'll start but will give out my current thoughts on the matchups.It's a start 3RB non ppr league with 1pt per 5yds rushing (heavy on yardage) and I'm currently rostering 6.ADP - MiaFoster - @WasMoreno - SeaMatthews - JacCaddy - @CarGerhart - MiaCan rule out Gerhart and ADP straight off the bat as they really are a no brainer, picking two from the other four is a bit more complex though.Foster - Despite his awesome showing last week I'm just not convinced yet. I don't see an elite skillset from the guy and think that he's so much a product of the system. Indy's run D was especially bad and I wonder how he'll do against a more solid unit. I tried to move him this week but couldn't get any takers at a reasonable price. I think I probably HAVE to start him just incase he is the real deal but I'm not entirely comfortable with it.Moreno - Any runner with a hamstring issue is a concern for me. I know he ran relatively well last week and put up a fairly decent stat line but I'm just not totally ready to commit. Seattle's D doesn't scare me and he'll get the majority of the carries which is always good. He's currently in my lineup but I'm just not sure. He seems likely to get into the endzone which is always good.Matthews - With little access to games over here I decided to download one last week, picked the KC/SD game. Wasn't sure what to make out of Matthews, bit of a mixed bag. I understand that with it being his first NFL action I shouldn't have expected too much but it seemed that too often he was heading straight up the middle for short gains. I think this is probably as much to do with SD's well documented Oline issues but it's a concern none the less. The mix up on the play action and his subsequent pull from the game was also a concern.Caddy - He's the outsider of the group for me as I don't think he's as talented as the others and I don't like the matchup. I think the Bucs fall behind early in this game and Caddy got most of his yards last week when they were trying to close out the game.Currently I'm thinking probably Foster and Moreno but think Matthews could also have a big game.Curious for opinions on who to go for.Oh and everyone should start CJ, you'll forgive yourself if an unexpected bench player goes off but not if you bench your 1st overall pick and he plays like he should.

You can't bench Foster so just roll with him. Jax gave up 111, 143, 305, 110, 197, and 214 on the ground in 6 of their 8 road games...I'll let you be the judge. Moreno has failed to cross 100 yds rushing in a game yet.

 

[Donsmith753]

Really enjoyed the read again this week and glad I took your advice and rolled with Foster over Moreno last week, that worked out well for me.I'm in even more of a mess this week trying to sort out who I'll start but will give out my current thoughts on the matchups.It's a start 3RB non ppr league with 1pt per 5yds rushing (heavy on yardage) and I'm currently rostering 6.ADP - MiaFoster - @WasMoreno - SeaMatthews - JacCaddy - @CarGerhart - MiaCan rule out Gerhart and ADP straight off the bat as they really are a no brainer, picking two from the other four is a bit more complex though.Foster - Despite his awesome showing last week I'm just not convinced yet. I don't see an elite skillset from the guy and think that he's so much a product of the system. Indy's run D was especially bad and I wonder how he'll do against a more solid unit. I tried to move him this week but couldn't get any takers at a reasonable price. I think I probably HAVE to start him just incase he is the real deal but I'm not entirely comfortable with it.Moreno - Any runner with a hamstring issue is a concern for me. I know he ran relatively well last week and put up a fairly decent stat line but I'm just not totally ready to commit. Seattle's D doesn't scare me and he'll get the majority of the carries which is always good. He's currently in my lineup but I'm just not sure. He seems likely to get into the endzone which is always good.Matthews - With little access to games over here I decided to download one last week, picked the KC/SD game. Wasn't sure what to make out of Matthews, bit of a mixed bag. I understand that with it being his first NFL action I shouldn't have expected too much but it seemed that too often he was heading straight up the middle for short gains. I think this is probably as much to do with SD's well documented Oline issues but it's a concern none the less. The mix up on the play action and his subsequent pull from the game was also a concern.Caddy - He's the outsider of the group for me as I don't think he's as talented as the others and I don't like the matchup. I think the Bucs fall behind early in this game and Caddy got most of his yards last week when they were trying to close out the game.Currently I'm thinking probably Foster and Moreno but think Matthews could also have a big game.Curious for opinions on who to go for.Oh and everyone should start CJ, you'll forgive yourself if an unexpected bench player goes off but not if you bench your 1st overall pick and he plays like he should.

You can't bench Foster so just roll with him. Jax gave up 111, 143, 305, 110, 197, and 214 on the ground in 6 of their 8 road games...I'll let you be the judge. Moreno has failed to cross 100 yds rushing in a game yet.

This may be more clear cut than I thought, thanks.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

This may be more clear cut than I thought, thanks.

You had a very good thought process thru it though. If you are going to talk about possible players to start that's the way you do it.

 

[pack66]

Philadelphia at Detroit (+4.5) (41.5)

Jahvid Best – Do not let the 2 TDs fool you. Yes he had some nice moves but the Lions also are still a works in progress moving the football. The good news is they have a back up while Stafford is out that has some real game experience and has performed at a decent level in Shaun Hill. Best had 5 receptions too although he was bottled up. He also posted close to 20 points this week and most owners don't care how he gets those points as long as he scores. Philly is a tough defense though and they shut down Green Bay running the football and actually managed to slow down Aaron Rodgers to some degree. Despite being decimated with injuries last week they still are a strong defense and I would think twice about Best this week. Still the carpet in Detroit should be Best friendly as he makes his home opener debut for the Lions.

it was all good till you wrote this line..stop reading after that..Grant 8-45, 5.5 per carry..

GB as as team , 4.0 per carry,132 yards rushing.. with a never-has-been RB named B. Jackson who runs like he's knee-high in mud..just how is it that the Eagles 'shut down' the GB rushing offense???

you're off base with that one did you watch the game??..GB ran with authority and at will against a soft Philly rush defense.

'shutting down' a teams rushing game doesn't include giving up 132 yards on the ground...they're mutually exclusive..

if 132 yards is shutting down a team's rushing game, what would you call the Jets performance against the Ravens?

Detroit plays better at home and this could be a coming out party for Best...

I'd love to believe this is Best's coming out party (not Detroit's for obvious reasons), but I guess I want to see one more week from him. I have Best, McCoy, Bradshaw and Cadillac as my RBs in a PPR league. The debate for me was Best v. Bradshaw. I believe a poster on page 1 was concerned about Philly's C being out and IIRC, he went out fairly early and McCoy did fine for PPR. With Vick more than likely starting this week, I think we might see a boost in McCoy. I've been trying to trade for Brandon Jackson and have considered picking up Kuhn. Kuhn actually ran pretty well as a traditional up the gut fullback, gaining quite a few yards. GB's strength in the line is their OGs and C. I think you might see a TD vulture in Kuhn with Jackson the PPR/outside the 20's RB play.

As for Best and the Philly D. I guess it boils down to the fact that Bob Sanders is out. I know they've had a week to deal with it and will most likely scheme to make Manning throw and keep up with them, but didn't they have a lot of issues with the run last year (or was it the year before) when Sanders was out for a while? I'd also feel better if this wasn't RBBC, but I think I'll take my chances with Bradshaw over Best.

 

[The Jerk]

Smart FF owners must factor in the frequency/likelihood of big plays when considering whether to start a "boom/bust" player vs. a plodder, for lack of a better term. I do this at times, too.However, my biggest problem with the "remove this one play and ..." approach is that it is arbitrarily applied. People seem to cherry pick certain players -- in Rovers' case, Mendenhall -- and penalize ONLY them.

I think it's perfectly fair to question a players ability to duplicate an explosive long run, when that player has no real track record of producing those long runs in the NFL. It's not arbitrary at all. We don't say "if you remove his long carry" about Chris Johnson, because he does it time and again. Same thing with Jamaal Charles. But Mendenhall... it's not arbitrary to question his ability to duplicate a long run, he broke only one run longer than 40 yards last year, only 5 over 30 yards.You discount things that odds indicate you cannot depend on. You can depend on some players breaking long runs, you cannot depend on others doing the same. Arbitrary implies there is no basis for deciding when to apply a principle, but that's not the case here.

I agree that Mendenhall is no Chris Johnson, but he's not the least likely RB to break a long gain either. He's more toward the middle, as my table of adjusted running performances (removing each player's longest run) illustrated in Week 1.I know you saw in my post where I mentioned that I factor in explosiveness and likelihood to do so. I'm not Mendenhall's agent, I just find the analysis of certain players to be more harsh than others.I find it interesting that you mention Mendenhall ONLY had five runs OVER 30 yards last year. Where is the context comparing that statistic with other top 15-20 RBs? Is he average, above average, or below average? I don't have access to that statistic. And of course, it's important to define what is more important, explosive runs per carry or explosive runs per game. I'd argue per game, but per carry matters too, as per game is often dependent on game circumstances.Chris Johnson had 12 runs over 30 yards last season, plus one this season on 27 carries. So over the past 17 games, CJ averages one 31+ yard run every 30 carries.For Mendenhall, over the same stretch, he now has six 31+ runs, averaging out to one 31+ yard run every 44 carries.I'm going to guess most people wouldn't think Mendenhall's frequency of 31+ yard runs was even that close to CJ's. I didn't. It's all about perception.This isn't about comparing CJ to Mendenhall. CJ's clearly the best or second best active RB. But I'll argue Mendenhall is underrated in his explosiveness. The bigger problem for RM is getting more carries, as even though his frequency isn't that far away from CJ, his carries lag far behind.

 

[Idiot Boxer]

Harder picks this week...but my contrarian picks are:

Stephen Jackson and Chris Johnson (won't be as good as you think, but not bad)

over

Ryan Matthews and Frank Gore

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Harder picks this week...but my contrarian picks are:

Stephen Jackson and Chris Johnson (won't be as good as you think, but not bad)

over

Ryan Matthews and Frank Gore

Just to calrify IB, the color codes are not rankings. I simply am pointing out guys that many teams will sutostart and saying they will perform subpar fyi...vice versa with Mathews and Gore who underperformed a bit last week. You are saying that Chris Johnson will have a great day...no you even say that next to his name. And that's the point, to get folks thinking.

Good luck this weekend IB, appreciate the contrarian POV

 

[Qmaster]

We move on to week 2 and from time to time I will add some advice on strategies for your redraft leagues. I always find it humorous in leagues where entry fees are at least $100-$200 and on up form there you will see some irrational waiver wire moves based on kneejerk reactions from the games over the 1st weekend. I usually am not quite as interested who is coming off the waiver wire as I am teams that abandon players after 1 week because they didn't produce. It happens with running backs but you see a ton of it at wide receiver and quarterback, especially if you play with tight rosters in the neighborhood of 14-16 players. Guys panic and I like to react the next morning and pick up the trash.

Also you are going to see guy chasing points. We have a couple nominees this week where you can bet the house they don't come close to what they did in week 1. But owners will sabotage their teams and move guys to the bench which is another thing I will advise you to look at. If a player you think is getting bad press for the 1st week and the owner is going to bench them after only one week, good time to pick up the phone and see if they are interested in moving a guy.

Before we jump to the games I want to thank all of you for last week, I was blown away by the responses and posting back and forth. It was by far the most views and hits I have ever had on an exploit/avoid thread, again thank you.

Tampa Bay at Carolina (-5)

The Bucs were able to come back and beat the Browns at home last week but it was an ugly win and frankly Cleveland gave the game away with 3 turnovers. I like some of what I see in Tampa Bay but Carolina and their strengths will stop the Bucs for most of the day. I don't care who is throwing the football for Carolina, I expect the dynamic duo at RB to be used extensively.

Cadillac Williams – 11 of his 22 carries came in the 4th quarter last week which means when the Bucs are ahead they are going to lean on him quite a bit. Caddy had close to 100 total yds and a couple receptions to push him into low double digits. Huggins is zero threat right now but I anticipate that might change when the Bucs start piling up losses. They had a good shot to lose last week but managed to force a few turnovers and eek out the win. The Bucs will get beat by Carolina this Sunday and I don't see Williams as a strong play this week at all. When the Car/NYG game was still a game in the 1st half, the Panthers held Bradshaw and Jacobs to a total of 3 yds on 12 carries. The Panthers lost that game because of Eli Manning, not the running game and Tampa Bay is OK at running the ball but they are not a power football team right now. Bench Williams this week as Tampa Bay will lose the time of possession battle badly this week and be playing from behind.

DeAngelo Williams – Look for him to redeem himself after a very sketchy opening week. Cleveland was running the ball well but shot themselves in the foot with fumbles and a coaching staff that is not committed to sticking with the run, a mistake that John Fox and the Panthers will not repeat this week against the Bucs. If they watch the game tape they will see clearly that Tampa can be run on if you stick with it and can throw a couple balls down the field to keep the safeties honest. Steve Smith will help take care of those problems and look for DeAngelo to have a strong performance. DeAngelo's last 2 games against the Bucs include 180+ and 2 TDs at home in 2008 and 150+ and 2 TDs last year in Tampa on the road. Tampa Bay in their present form is pretty close to those defenses with the addition of perhaps some better play at DT but McCoy and Price are still learning.

Jonathan Stewart – After not touching the ball in preseason he looked rusty. He will see more action this week as Carolina will be ahead at some point in the 2nd half and Stewart will be asked to help drop the hammer and close the game out. But Stewart is not the starter, he will not be taking the field with the 1st unit on the opening drive of the football game, this team is DeAngelo's right now. Stewart could make things murky if he explodes on 10-12 carries this week but for right now there is no reason to be starting him and this will make the 2nd week where a guy taken in the 1st 3-5 rounds of most drafts will be benched by owners.

Final Score: Carolina 20…Tampa Bay 13

Kansas City at Cleveland (-1.5) (38)

KC really surprised people last week. Do keep in mind though that they went 3 and out about 10 times during the game. Their offense still needs a lot of work. As I am typing this it seems like Cleveland might be without Delhomme. Some will say good, others will know that this only makes a fragile offense worse IMO.

Jamaal Charles/Thomas Jones – Both had 11 carries in the game but the results were quite a bit different for Charles who exploded for a 56 yds TD scamper in the 1st half that really showcased why he needs to get a lot of touches. What I did not like was that Charles was never in the I-Form and most of his handoffs the defense could see coming a mile away. They were all shotgun turn and hand the ball off and when he was in the game and they were in the shotgun it was obvious what they were going to do. And the fact is, KC stands a good chance to do well again this week so if they get a lead I can see Thomas Jones coming into the game a lot in the 2nd half. I think Charles is the only play here but Jones is not going to be riding the pine if he is healthy most weeks. Jones took the field on the 1st drive and he is the starter for now and perhaps most of the year. Charles is the COP and everything that Dallas wishes Felix Jones was right now. Cleveland actually was pretty good at keeping Cadillac bottled up and a lot of his touches came later in the game when the Bucs were ahead and trying to run the clock out. Frustrating for owners but you want to keep plugging in Charles and hoping he continues to break off big runs. Charles busts the touchdown and on the very next drive they come right back with Thomas Jones up the middle and then LG, are you kidding me? It's going to take a lot of Charles touchdowns or long runs to change this up and I'm really not sure why. I can understand keeping Charles to something like 15 carries, that should leave about 15 for Jones most weeks and they did get an even split of carries this past week but it's the way Charles got the majority of his TDs. The TD from Charles was not in the shotgun formation btw.

Peyton Hillis/Jerome Harrison – We can discuss how nice Harrison looks and his home run capability but the fact is that Hillis took the field as the starter. I am really starting to think Mangini is one of the dumbest coaches in the league. Hillis looked good and is a Mike Alstott clone as I wrote in the TB/Cle recap this week if you want to check that out. He even wears the same number 40 so I imagine Hillis emulates himself after the guy. He is not a 20 carry type back and should be used mostly when they get in the red zone and on pays where they are in short yardage like 2nd and 3, 3rd and 1…not that he can't break off a run but that is what he is built for plain and simple. Harrison is the home run threat and he needs to be involved in the offense but at times the Browns went away from him and he had perhaps 3 carries midway thru the 2nd quarter, that's not going to get it done. Avoid them both for now until one of them can be consistent. If Hillis had not fumbled twice I think he would have established himself as the primary back.

Final Score: Kansas City 20…Cleveland 17

Chicago at Dallas (-8) (41)

Dallas was a major disappointment last week. I am surprised they are such a favorite this week. I think some of that is Dallas bias since they have the largest fan base of almost any team. I could see 4-5 but 8 seems like a lot. Chicago threw for over 350 last week and while they don't run the ball that well I think they can hang in there and give Dallas and their fans a run for their money.

Matt Forte – His stats show a couple things. He is a talented receiving back and when you put him in a pass friendly system of Mike Martz he can shine. The 2nd part though is that he was limited on the ground despite Chicago throwing for about 375 yds thru the air which should help open up the running lanes. Dallas is a different defense than Detroit and despite them losing the game last week; their defense only gave up 6 points and bottled up the Skins the entire game. I have a feeling Forte will be much more pedestrian this week.

Marion Barber III – 40 yds on 10 touches. He took the field as the starter and seemed effective at times running the ball but I am starting to dislike Jason Garrett. The play calling is all over the place and at this point you have to assume Dallas is a passing team that runs the ball once in awhile to keep teams honest. Last year it was hard to predict when Barber or Jones were going to be decent calls and again this year the roles seem to be blurred as to who does what. Jack of all trades master of none seems to be the best way to describe them. And despite the Bears giving up 2 rushing TDs to Best last week they held him in check most of the game with 13 carries for only 20 yards. Chicago will have problems stopping the passing game but they will key in on the run and make Dallas as one dimensional as possible.

Felix Jones – 2 receptions added to his totals and gave him about 8 points for the week. He is not a good flex option until we see more of Dallas or they face an easier team where they might run the ball more to eat up some clock in the 2nd half. I liked what I saw of Felix, just like Barber but neither seems to get enough touches. Chicago certainly doesn't look like a juicy match up on paper right now.

Final Score: Dallas 24…Chicago 20

Philadelphia at Detroit (+4.5) (41.5)

Poor Lions…they draft what looks like a franchise QB and for the 2nd time in less than 2 seasons he is hurt. Really changes the complexion of the team. Shaun Hill is a decent back up but this is going to be hard for them. Low and behold though and it seems like Philly lost their starting QB, Kevin Kolb, for at least another week. I tend to see more upside with Vick over Hill in this one.

LeSean McCoy – Owners have to be happy with what they saw. McCoy had some runs when they were well behind but he also was able to become a factor in the passing game where he hauled in 5/47 to add to 7/35/TD on the ground. He was close to 20 points last week and those are top10 numbers almost any given week. One thing I have to say is that he was not dancing around. He caught the ball and took it upfield, he took the handoff and hit the hole whatever was open, he wasn't waiting for things to constantly develop he simply tried to gain as many yards as he could. Forte laid a 37 point performance on these Lions and no matter who is throwing the ball for the Eagles, McCoy is going to look good as a check down option throughout the game. Forte was 7/150 and 2 TDs receiving, a guy with McCoy's skills to catch the ball should be able to exploit that during the game. McCoy should be in your starting rotation this week.

Jahvid Best – Do not let the 2 TDs fool you. Yes he had some nice moves but the Lions also are still a works in progress moving the football. The good news is they have a back up while Stafford is out that has some real game experience and has performed at a decent level in Shaun Hill. Best had 5 receptions too although he was bottled up. He also posted close to 20 points this week and most owners don't care how he gets those points as long as he scores. Philly is a tough defense though and they shut down Green Bay running the football and actually managed to slow down Aaron Rodgers to some degree. Despite being decimated with injuries last week they still are a strong defense and I would think twice about Best this week. Still the carpet in Detroit should be Best friendly as he makes his home opener debut for the Lions.

Final Score: Philadelphia 21…Detroit 17

Arizona at Atlanta (-6.5) (43)

Atlanta was in a very tough game with the Steelers last week. Matt Ryan didn't look great but he hung in there and Atlanta had a chance to win but couldn't move the ball in overtime. The Cards managed to eek out a win on the road against one of the worst teams in the league so I wouldn't get too excited or start booking playoff tickets for them just yet.

Wells – Check the IR but my initial reaction is leave him alone for another week while Arizona is still finding their sea legs without Kurt Warner. Anderson was not great but I still think there is enough talent around him to where he can lead the team unlike Leinart who he replaced. Certainly Derek Anderson is not the long term solution but for 2010 he really is their best option.

Tim Hightower – Fumbled a couple times last week but he redeemed himself after the 1st fumble and most agree that the 2nd fumble wasn't really a fumble. The coach has come out and said he has the upmost confidence in THT so if he is taking all the 1st team resp this week than you might look at him as a possible start. He was at least RB2 numbers for most that started him last week. Atlanta has a tougher defense but the track is fast again and Hightower does pretty well in these domes on the road. I wouldn't say he is a must start like he might have been last week but he has a good chance to produce again this week.

Michael Turner – Forget about the Steelers last week, I told you he wasn't going to have a good game but never fear Turner owners as he returns to the comfy dome where in 12 games on that surface he has racked up 1,399 yds rushing and 18 Touchdowns!!!He is one of the strongest plays of the week against an Arizona team that just traveled to St Louis and was in a dog fight, now must turn around and fly across country to match up with the Falcons. Atlanta is good and should have beat the Steelers last week…OK maybe they shouldn't have beat them but they were playing great for most of the game. The Arizona Cardinals were able to keep Steven Jackson relatively contained but that was mostly due to them selling out and Bradford made them pay at times. The Cards won't be able to do that against Atlanta who will torch them with better weapons should they try and do this.

Final Score: Atlanta 28…Arizona 17

Pittsburgh at Tennessee (-5) (36)

The Steelers managed to play a good ole slobberknocoker football game and in overtime made the big play to propel them past Atlanta. This week they march into Tennessee and the game plan has got to be shut Chris Johnson down. The Titans will counter with their own brand of football and Vince Young has really progressed in the passing game. I like what I saw last week and he hit Nate Washingotn on a bomb that really opened the game up. Can that continue against the Steelers this week?

Rashard Mendenhall – Mendy owners have got to feel pretty lucky as he was bottled up most of the day as predicted but in overtime he sent the Flacons a big phatty and took it to the house. He displayed good speed and made a tired defense pay big time. I typically am not a Mendy supporter but he kept hammering the Falcons inside and probably kept the Steelers in the game, gave their defense something to hang their hat on as they laid the wood to Michael Turner and the Falcons for the better part of the game Sunday. That said, the Steelers are pretty 1 dimensional right now and they might have lost maz Starks one of their best OL for awhile due to injury. I'll check on that and report any updates but the Pitt OL just keeps getting worse. Look at what Pitt did on 1st down for the game…1st down 1st drive-Mendenhall handoff, same for the 2nd drive, 3rd drive, 4th drive, 5th drive, wash rinse repeat…Jeff Fisher is going to watch the game tapes and see the same thing. I promise you that TN will make Dixon beat them and they will sell out to stopping Mendy. Atlanta did and they were pretty good at it for much of the game. Mendy might get 20+ carries again this week but unless he busts another 50 yarder he likely ends up with about 50-75 rushing yds, maybe a couple receptions. Owners are going to start him but I don't see him hitting the top10 again this week.

Chris Johnson – No one is going to do it but you saw what the Steelers did to Turner last week and I expect Chris Johnson's streak of 100 yd games to come to a crashing halt this week. You should think about sitting him this week although I understand everyone is going to start him. I own him in many leagues and I'm not sure I can take my own advice here but if you remove the emotion from it you will understand that this could be Johnson's worst game of the season. How bad will CJ perform? I would safely rank him outside the top10 this week, if he cracked the top20 I would be a little surprised. Tennessee has worked on their passing game and Johnson was bottled up early last week even allowing for Javon Ringer to make an appearance but once Young connected with Nate Washington it opened up the flood gates for Johnson on the ground. I still think Pitt is strong enough to stick with making Young beat them this week.

Final Score: Tennessee 17…Pittsburgh 14

Buffalo at Green Bay (-13) (43)

Buffalo looked awful last week and yet they were one big play from winning last week. That won't happen against Green Bay who has a much better offense than Miami and also the Phins don't have a Clay Mathews who was a one man wrecking crew last week. Big spread but it's probably justified.

Buffalo RBs: They did nothing last week and they didn't see anyone on the level of a Clay Mathews like they will this week. Buffalo might just be the worst offense we have seen in years. It is void of any passing attack that I could see, nothing at TE, nothing strong at WR, the RBs have nowhere to go when they do get the ball. Avoid this situation like the plague if you can. Spiller was probably your RB3 in most leagues, eventually this will get ironed out but for now it's best to not venture this way. Miami has an OK defense but nothing special and they just did nothing for the better part of that game against them. Green Bay has DBs, LBs, many of which are pretty decorated; this is a terrible match up. Add in what we are going to discuss next and I expect the Green Bay defense to shut down the Bills big time.

Ryan Grant – If reports are true this will unfortunately be the last time I will be writing about Grant this year. He had a terrible injury in the Philly game that saw a ton of injuries on both sides. I feel bad for owners as Grant was the centerpiece of a lot of teams and while many felt he was not an elite RB1, he certainly was steady and allowed for owners to load up at other spots.

Brandon Jackson – Green Bay homers are pretty hyped about this guy, not sure how to read the tea leaves here. I would probably grab him off waivers if you can but I also would not run to start him unless Grant left you with absolutely no other options. Buffalo could be a good match up or McCarthy might just abandon the position for now as he knows Rodgers can tear this defense apart with all the weapons they have at WR and TE. I'm taking a wait and see approach for now.

Final Score: Green Bay 34…Buffalo 13

Miami at Minnesota (-5.5) (39.5)

Neither team looked good last week and Miami just lucked out and got a win. Minnesota is in the middle of a lot of trade rumors for WRs including Vincent Jackson. The coaching staff has no faith in half their roster on offense and while Miami is not a great team by any stretch, if they were focused and can get a ground game established, a tall task against the Williams boys inside, but if they could perhaps they can sneak a win on the road before the schedule gets even worse. Maybe this writer is just dreaming.

Ronnie Brown/Ricky Williams – He had a nice week going but the split last week was Ricky with 18 carries and Ronnie with 13. Brown did get the red zone run and cashed it in but I'm not sure they will use Ronnie exclusively at the goal line. Here is what Ronnie has done in domes over the years…@NO-23/106, @Det-15/68, @StL-15/48/TD, @Atl-10/43…I don't see big things for Miami's running game on the road in Minnesota against a pretty strong defense. Best case scenario might be 60/TD, but remember that he splits time with Ricky, a lot of time. If you go with Ricky, he does seem to get a better ypc avg in the domes, he is familiar with them from his days in New Orleans but right now Miami is almost one of those teams where you really can't start either of these guys with a lot of confidence.

Adrian Peterson – Miami's defense played hard last night but don't kid yourself. Jared Odrick the 1st round pick out of Penn State and starting RDE is out with a hairline fracture in his leg and could miss up to 6 weeks. This will not help the LBs out as they try and wrap up Peterson. Adrian is going to have a huge day unless the Killer Bs or no name defense of the 70s suddenly transports into these guys. Koa Misi looked really good in his 1st game, Mike Nolan called a great game defensively but there is a major upgrade in the offense for the Vikings. I bet Brett Favre suddenly gets healthy this week as well.

Final Score: Minnesota 27…Miami 16

Baltimore at Cincinnati (+2) (40)

Baltimore is going to be exhausted after traveling to New York and defeating the Jets in their stadium christening last week. Ray Lewis walked the walk after talking the talk. He simply is the best defensive player of his time. I remember Reggie White, Lawrence Taylor, and other greats but Lewis is just downright nasty. He looks trimmer than last year where I thought he was showing signs of age and getting a little fat in the belly but he looks like he's 25 not 35. All that said, Baltimore has got to be out of gas and will be on a short week on the road again. This game will have a lot more offense than the 10-9 contest last week in New York.

Ray Rice – Last year he rang up a total of about 275 yds, 15 receptions and 2 TDs in the 2 contests with Cincinnati. The Bengals were not good last week and got taken to the woodshed by New England in an ambush that most didn't see coming. Now they turn around and have to play Baltimore who is coming off a huge physical win last Monday Night. Rice will get his yds one way or the other in this game and while he might only run for 50-60 yds, he should do plenty of damage with his receptions. He's a centerpiece of this offense and his number will be called plenty, owners should relax but the presence of some real weapons in the passing game takes away a little bit of his value at the moment.

Cedric Benson – He didn't kill owners last week but he was a fringe RB1, better RB2. Bernard Scott came into the game in the late 3rd quarter once the Pats were up 31-10 so I discount much of what he did from that point on. Benson will have it rough this week but he knows how to attack this defense. Heavg 120/TD on the ground a year ago in 2 meetings with these guys, that doesn't mean he will repeat those numbers but don't be surprised if he plunges in a short score again. Baltimore did not have their secondary tested at all from mark Sanchez and I promise you TO and Ocho are going to find out what is out there in that secondary. This should create some running lanes or some red zone attempts.

Final Score: Cincinnati 24…Baltimore 21

Seattle at Denver (-3.5) (40)

Last week we were treated to a wonderful press conference by Mike Singletary where he thanked Pete Carroll for kicking his butt…let me tell you that Mike Singletary didn't mean a word of it. He knows what happened on the field and when you roll the tape you can see that San Fran should have been walking into the locker room at halftime up about 21-0 but that didn't happen. San Fran went on drives of 5:00, 9:00, and 6:00 in the 1st half and settled for 2 FGs. It's astonishing that Seattle won that game. Now I know Pete has turned the roster over but they traditionally lie down like dogs on the road and allow teams to do whatever they want to them. This defense is not as good as locals would like you to believe. Sure they held Gore in check but San Fran was sustaining drives and simply did not cash in.

Justin Forsett – Had a 32 yard run that when taken away leaves Seattle with 41 yds rushing on 20 carries. Folks this OL is a mess and they can't run block yet. I know some are thinking that Denver' defense is somewhat soft but the strength of Seattle is passing and despite Garrard getting 3 TDs last week they were kind of fluky with Mercedes Lewis and MSW was held to zero catches. Look elsewhere, this is no place you want to be starting guys at right now.

Knowshon Moreno – I like him this week. He had 60 tough yds and a score. On the 1st drive he took his 1st carry and scampered for 10 yds, his 2nd carry was on a 2nd down and short and he got botteled up inside for 1 yd. on 3rd down he took the carry and got 6 yds for a 1st down but it was called back because of a holding call. Killed the flow of the offense and what he was doing. Next drive he took a 1st and 10 carry and gained 4 yds…that's what he is supposed to do. Long drive in the 2nd quarter he was given back to back carries on 1st and 2nd down, got 3 yds, then 4 yds, set up a 3rd and 3…those are good tough yards. 3rdqurter on a short field he pooped a run for 18 yds and set the Broncos up near the end zone, 2 plays later he is going into the end zone. Why am I telling you all this? Because Maroney is now on the roster and I don't see him taking over Moreno's roll in the offense anytime soon. Buckhalter's touches are going to disappear plain and simple.

Final Score: Denver 24…Seattle 17



St Louis at Oakland (-3.5) (37.5)

I am very happy for St Louis fans. I am on record as saying that selecting Sam Bradford would set the franchise back 5 years. I'm not retracting the statement after just 1 week but Bradford stood in there and was a leader on offense last week. This team is going to rally around him and you have to feel like great days are on the horizon for them. I even like the recent addition of Mark Clayton who is going to make a nice security blanket for Bradford this year and perhaps the future.

Steven Jackson – His road games out West have been pretty mediocre the past few years with numbers of 23/92@SF, 18/55@AZ, 23/66@Sea, 18/63@AZ, 16/67@Sea, 23/79@SF …not much receiving to go with it either. He was not fantastic last week except he knocked in 4 receptions for almost no yds but in PPR that was enough to pull him into the 12-13 range for points. I liked St Louis and their chances last week at home and they came very close to winning that game but on the road I am not very optimistic that Bradford will look as composed as he was last week. You got him start him but unless he can find pay dirt it might be a long slow day for him. I saw what Chris Johnson did last week but he was bottled up for awhile too and his speed is what made the biggest difference. Jackson has some jets but he is a big guy that likes contact. He'll get plenty of it in the black hole this weekend.

Darren McFadden – I tore him apart in another thread this week but he has all the right skills to hurt St Louis this weekend and even if Michael Bush gets some of the carries which we don't know for sure yet, I like McFadden to make a return trip to the top12 this week. St Louis gave up 103 yds on 20 carries and a TD to Hightower and Howling and also 7 receptions for 56 yards to boot; those are good numbers for McFadden lovers. At worst he is a nice flex option this week with the potential receptions. Oakland's passing game is still a work in progress from all angles right now. Unless Bush is announced as the starter I wouldn't hesitate with McFadden right now. Ride the points while you can.

Final Score: Oakland 23…St Louis 16

New England at New York Jets (+1.5) (38)

Fred Taylor – Guess they saw all they needed with Fred Taylor so they traded away Maroney. I think the pecking order is something like Taylor, Morris, then BJGE, Quite frankly none of them are worth starting and despite Jenkins going down for the season in New York, I still believe the Jets can bottle up most of the running lanes. The Pats have not changed, they still are going to attack thru the air ironically that's not a bad place to go at the Jets.

LaDainian Tomlinson/Shonn Greene – Neither of these guys are really worth a start right now. New England held the Jets last year to 250 yds of offense in the 1st contest and 225 in the 2nd as they blew them out 31-14. Sanchez can't hurt anyone and Schottenheimer calls terrible plays. Mix it up in a blender and you have a couple guys that probably will combine for 80-120 yds rushing but neither of them will get the lion's share. I like LT just a smidge better right now but I also think Greene will re-establish himself very soon. The Patriots should win this game on Sunday as they weren't pushed much against Cinci last week, the Jets went 15 rounds with Baltimore and now they have the Pats crunching down on them…bad news Jets fans.

Final Score: New England 21…New York 10

Jacksonville at San Diego (-8) (45.5)

Last year the Jags were incredibly bad on long road trip out west. They lost to Seattle 41-0, and then to San Fran 20-3, the long flight coupled with an iffy offense and suspect defense just doesn't make for a good team. San Diego played better than you might think on MNF a week ago. Their defense was actually really good giving up 1 big play to Jamaal Charles. They 7 drives of 3 and out for their defense, a 5 and out, another where they gave up 2 first downs, a TD on a very short field their 12 yd line so that was understandable, and then the long Charles run for a TD. Their special teams let them down but that defense was actually really good and made Matt Cassel turn in a performance equal to Mark Sanchez earlier in the night. I think San Diego will win this game easily and so does Vegas.

MJD – In both the Seattle and SF games he caught enough balls to make him relevant but I wouldn't be planning on a career day from the little guy this weekend. You can't bench him and like I said he caught enough dump offs in both games on the road last year to keep his owners above water.

Ryan Mathews – The fumble was not good but they came right back to him and he is a big part of the game plan right now. Once they fell behind they had to air it out and he simply didn't get as many carries but it looks like he will get a steady diet of about 20+ touches a week. He's the bell cow for now and Seattle ripped off 140 on the Jags last year, SF only about 50 but SD seems ready to feed him the ball a lot so continue to start him. Would like to see him take a few more receptions.

Final Score: San Diego 30…Jacksonville 14

Houston at Washington (+3) (43.5)

I'm always leery of teams like Houston that are coming off an emotional win against a team they have rarely beaten in Indianapolis and despite them winning 34-24, the score was a little closer than you might think and also they gave up over 425 yds passing to Peyton Manning. Luckily the Skins don't have near the array of weapons to hurt them with but Houston is going to have a hard time marching into DC and defeating the Skins.

Arian Foster – Curb your enthusiasm folks. I like him and own him in several leagues but as Bill Parcells so famously said a few years ago…"let's not get the anointing oils out yet"…he had a normal load of carries in the 1st half and then the Texans made some adjustments and just rammed it down the Colts throat in the beginning of the 2nd half. Foster had something like 10 carries on the 1st drive in the 2nd half. Yes he's good, high powered offense, but I look for Schaub to throw it a little more this week and Foster will be hard pressed to hit the top5 again this week. Probably even the top10. Washington did allow 95 yds on 19 carries to the Dallas RBs but for some reason Dallas stopped running the football. Foster will do fine this week and I enjoyed the kool aid last week with the rest of you but let's not not talk crazy and start thinking LT 2006, or Faulk circa 1999. Things will look a little different this week.

Clinton Portis – A very uninspiring 63 yds on 18 carries and I can remember 1 run where he looked pretty good but mostly it was just a couple yards and not much else. Houston did a pretty good job on Addai but again the Colts stopped running the football. I imagine Shanny will test them a lot more in this game. Portis might be able to rack up 75-80 yds but whether he scores a TD or not will be the question. Portis has 3 Touchdowns in his last 17 games…yikes!!!

Final Score: Houston 20…Washington 17

New York Giants at Indianapolis (-5.5) (48)

Ahmad Bradshaw/Brandon Jacobs – I think you're gonna like this breakdown…

1st quarter-Bradshaw has runs of -3, 1, -8…and Jacobs has carries of 5, -1, and 3.

2nd quarter-Bradshaw…6, 1, 2, -3, 6 and Jacobs has 1 run of -5…the Giants are winning the game though.

3rd quarter-Bradshaw gets 1 carry for 1 yard. Jacobs runs for 22, 4, and 2 yds (GL) including a goal line run inside the 5.

4th quarter-Giants are ahead and trying to run clock. Bradshaw gets 10 of his 20 carries in this quarter. Runs of 6, 39, 4(GL-TD), 2, 3, 0, 12, 1, 2, -1…Jacobs -3(GL), 14, 0, 0.

What does this tell us? If New York is winning they want to run the football and run clock. Bradshaw was getting more touches when they were ahead. This also looks a lot like RBBC still with each of them getting equal carries in the 1st Q, then Bradshaw got more in the 2nd, Jacobs more in the 3rd, certainly Bradshaw had more touches overall but it wasn't a total slam dunk and Jacobs failed to take advantage of carries near the goal line where he was 2/-1. I don't think either will have a great game this week despite what Houston did to Indy last week. Bob Sanders is out for a while again but he wasn't around much last year or any year it seems.

Joseph Addai – The one good thing is he was the only RB that ran the ball with 10 carries for 44 yds so Donald Brown is an afterthought right now. Despite what New York did to DWill and JStew last week I would not think twice about starting Addai this week at home. I expect Indy to get up on New York and then look for Addai to help run some clock at different points.

Final Score: Indy 31…New York 21

New Orleans at San Fran (+4.5) (44)

Pierre Thomas – He got a lot of touches last week. Something owners had to be pleased with. Will he get a 17:2 carry margin over Reggie Bush every week? I doubt it but as long as he can get a steady number of touches on the ground, 14-16 + carries and whatever he catches is just gravy. He looks like he will get the goal line touches as well. He got both carries when they got deep in Vikings territory last week and he punched it in form the 1 yd line, another good sign for owners. I still believe he will have his ups and downs but from an owner perspective you had to like what you saw last week.

Reggie Bush – Owners have to feel a bit miffed after watching the game last week. Bush was healthy and running well but he only got 2 carries, both times he looked great. No injuries were reported, not sure why they went totally away from him in the running game but for now you can't risk him getting the ball or not so I would put him on the bench and try something else for now. His time will come but for now why take chances?

Frank Gore –The Niners actually were moving the ball pretty well in Seattle as I posted earlier but they failed to cash in. I don't believe the game plan is going to change and with Alex Smith throwing costly interceptions I look for Frank Gore to get his number called a lot this week. The Saints are marginal at stopping the run, not one of the best in the league but they have a really nice secondary and I doubt San Fran will take chances. Look for Gore to carry the ball a lot.

Final Score: San Fran 24…New Orleans 21

Good luck everyone

excellent right up as always.do you also do this for receivers?Don't you just love it when someone copies the ENTIRE POST only to reply with a one sentence retort.....I know I do!

 

[tangfoot]

Somebody needs a banning.