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Reggie Wayne's "2010 offseason" OUTLOOK (1 Viewer)

THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA

THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA

Footballguy
Curious on what others feel on Wayne's outlook in general. From reading a few post i get a feeling he un undervalued and others ive seen he may be overvalued.

He is coming off another impressive season 100 1264 10 in which he was playing banged up alittle toward the end of the year and he just turned 31 4mths ago.

He is also on a team with nice targets in Clark and now Garcon/Collie.

Whats your take on Wayne? Still Top 10? Top 5?

 
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Also another question is is this a good time to abandon ship on him. I know at just 31 he still should have alot in the tank im just

asking to you see him fading from here on out. Is it the time to BUY/SELL/HOLD on Wayne?

 
He's still top 10 dynasty wise for me but just barely. He'll be 32 this season and although i think he's got a few good seasons left his trade value is about to fall off the cliff.

 
I think the real play is Garcon....a lot cheaper and has some good upside to him. But for me....yes Wayne is in the top 10 still.

 
THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA said:
fruity pebbles said:
He's still top 10 dynasty wise for me but just barely. He'll be 32 this season and although i think he's got a few good seasons left his trade value is about to fall off the cliff.
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So i take it you would be in the SELLING camp on Wayne?If so what younger wr would you move him for?
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Depends on my team. If i was a championship contender i'd prolly ride him out cause you won't get fair value for him from most. In a new dynasty startup i'd prob have him ranked low enough that i wouldn't take him. If i could move him for any of Roddy, Jennings, Austin, Desean, Vjax, Marshall or Colston i'd probably do it. Sidney and Holmes i'd think hard about.
 
Another thing to think on is the possible loss of the 2011 season or part of it. Wayne would come back in 2012 at 34 years old and have very little value

 
I am in the "Sell Market" as a Wayne owner.

I believe he still has good value and will produce Top 12-15 numbers, I don't expect Top 5 due to the following reasons:

The emergence of D Brown as a reliable option

Proven production from Addai

Pierre Garcon

Dallas Clark

Austin Collie

and the return of Anthony Gonzalez

All this just reduces the targets directed to Wayne overall.

In 2009 = 100 Rec for 1264 yards with 10 TD's on 149 targets (67% receptions & 1 TD per 15 targets )

In 2008 = 82 Rec for 1145 yards with 6 TD's on 130 targets (63% receptions & 1 TD per 21.7 targets)

Can he maintain this level of production with these other weapons emerging in Indy? Not likely.

Now, I plan to use this data to show "his value now" to get a viable young WR (like Crabtree or S Smith NYG) plus a draft pick/upgrade to replace him. If I don't get this, I will just hold him. Lost the championship this past season (12 team 4 player keeper league). I can hold him for another season without cost.

 
This was point 1b of my thread here. I find Reggie Wayne to be overvalued right now. I don't see why similarly productive WRs (Chad, Steve Smith) have taken such a nose dive in value and Wayne hasn't. Is it really just the Peyton factor?

Now is the time to sell. His value will only decrease from here. Do it while his value is still holding strong.

 
I do agree with those that say this is probably the optimal time to sell Reggie Wayne as his value may never be higher depending on the type of owners in your league. However, optimal value to sell, doesn't mean you should absolutely sell a guy, I mean in theory, this is probably the optimal time to sell Chris Johnson, but that doesn't mean its a good idea and that's where I stand on Wayne.

I personally have Wayne 5th at WR in dynasty rankings behind the big 3 and DeSean Jackson, I could also understand arguments for V-JAX, Austin and White, but I think they all have much more bust potential than Wayne. Maybe it depends on whether you'd rather swing for the fences or take the sure singles, though I don't believe White really has more upside. V-JAX worries me somewhat that he may be one dimensional, and the multiple arrests, while not as worrisome to me as a guy like Marshall, still don't exactly make me feel great about the guy. Austin is probably closest, but its the one year stigma and the lack of pedigree that make me think he could fall back to the pack, I've got him 6th so its not like I'm down on him, I just would rather own Wayne. Let's not forget that he basically put up that 1,200-10 in 14 games this year as the Colts sat him about half of the last 2 weeks and were extremely vanilla when he(and all the other starters) were playing.

I can't see good arguments for anyone else over Wayne. It blows my mind that some people would take guy like Dez Bryant over Wayne. Even taking a guy like Colston doesn't really make any sense to me over Wayne.

From the sounds of it, Wayne looks like a buy-low for contenders and probably a hold otherwise unless you get an offer you can't refuse.

I still don't get the Ocho Cinco being close to Wayne argument at all. Other than being the same age how are they similar. Wayne 's been a more productive player since 06' and he's been FAR more productive in the last 2 seasons. Plus, Palmer, in my opinion(though I imagine others feel the same) has become a pretty big question mark. Wayne is a WR1, Ocho is WR2 and is probably more likely to see a decrease in value than Wayne is. Steve Smith is closer amongst guys just over 30, but I still think Wayne is the better WR by a pretty comfortable margin.

 
Nice points Travdogg.

I got a few teams where im trying to see should i target him as i feel most are selling him short right now.

I mean some are going gaga over the Harvin/Nicks types and i might get lucky to land on a "contender-type" team.

 
travdogg said:
I do agree with those that say this is probably the optimal time to sell Reggie Wayne as his value may never be higher depending on the type of owners in your league. However, optimal value to sell, doesn't mean you should absolutely sell a guy, I mean in theory, this is probably the optimal time to sell Chris Johnson, but that doesn't mean its a good idea and that's where I stand on Wayne.I personally have Wayne 5th at WR in dynasty rankings behind the big 3 and DeSean Jackson, I could also understand arguments for V-JAX, Austin and White, but I think they all have much more bust potential than Wayne. Maybe it depends on whether you'd rather swing for the fences or take the sure singles, though I don't believe White really has more upside. V-JAX worries me somewhat that he may be one dimensional, and the multiple arrests, while not as worrisome to me as a guy like Marshall, still don't exactly make me feel great about the guy. Austin is probably closest, but its the one year stigma and the lack of pedigree that make me think he could fall back to the pack, I've got him 6th so its not like I'm down on him, I just would rather own Wayne. Let's not forget that he basically put up that 1,200-10 in 14 games this year as the Colts sat him about half of the last 2 weeks and were extremely vanilla when he(and all the other starters) were playing.I can't see good arguments for anyone else over Wayne. It blows my mind that some people would take guy like Dez Bryant over Wayne. Even taking a guy like Colston doesn't really make any sense to me over Wayne.From the sounds of it, Wayne looks like a buy-low for contenders and probably a hold otherwise unless you get an offer you can't refuse. I still don't get the Ocho Cinco being close to Wayne argument at all. Other than being the same age how are they similar. Wayne 's been a more productive player since 06' and he's been FAR more productive in the last 2 seasons. Plus, Palmer, in my opinion(though I imagine others feel the same) has become a pretty big question mark. Wayne is a WR1, Ocho is WR2 and is probably more likely to see a decrease in value than Wayne is. Steve Smith is closer amongst guys just over 30, but I still think Wayne is the better WR by a pretty comfortable margin.
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Great post. My "sell" position is based upon the fact that this may be the last time an owner can gain max value for Wayne. Say he goes to 1100-8 this year with Garcon/Collie/Gonzo/Clark each taking a bigger slice of his pie? I just don't think he can increase in value and the downside of age works against him. Therefore I will dangle him out there and see what the market bears.
 
Its a given that Reggie Wayne’s value will never be higher than it is now. The same thing could’ve been said last year and the year prior. Once a WR hits 29/30ish, their market value, if already high, is not typically going to get any higher and will likely begin to decline. I think Wayne could and likely will repeat his 2009 performance in 2010. Even at 280+ points, Wayne’s market value next year will be lower than it is now, perhaps significantly lower. Anyone drafting or trading for Wayne should already know this. Wayne is not a player you take in hopes of value appreciation.

Wayne’s value is not in his perceived value going forward like it might be for Sidney Rice, Dez Bryant, Michael Crabtree, VJax...or even Calvin Johnson. Wayne’s value is in his actual production (and predictability of that production). With Manning at the helm, his situation is as consistent and as predictable as you can get imo. If you can use that production, then Wayne will generate real value for your team and may help you win a title or two. For that kind of team, Wayne in production is “worth” an early second round value and if you can get him for late second, early third round value (i.e., approx WR12-15), you’ll be golden.

Same couldve been said about Moss last year and his value has clearly taken a hit this year in startups and trade, but the difference between Wayne and Moss right now, besides the age difference, is that Wayne is in an environment that looks to be stable while Moss is not. Were Moss likely to stay with Brady for several more years, I think Moss’ value would be higher and I would be a lot more interested in him.

Wayne has been compared here to Smith as well, but while supremely talented, Smith has not really matched Wayne’s consistent production over the years so I think naturally, Wayne will be valued higher. Truth be told, I like all three and on one team, have all three for their actual production value (and not for some idea that I could trade any of the three later for any value). In the right situation, I am more than happy to ride these three into the ground.

I have Wayne in a number of leagues (which is not unusual given the number of leagues I am in), and in the leagues where I feel my team is the best in the league (from a redraft win-now perspective over the next few years), having Wayne is a necessity and is not replaceable. Not only do I need him in order to secure any top score prize, but I also need him to secure a bye in the playoffs which I think is a big deal in trying to consistently compete for a championship. On these teams, I’ve either drafted Wayne fairly high in prior years or spent a pretty penny acquiring him. When asked about Wayne in these leagues, I’ve told more than a few that at where he is valued now (which again, is as high as its going to be going forward), Wayne is worth significantly more to my team than I can get in a trade.

Then, there are other leagues (one I can think of right now off the top of my head) where even with Wayne, my team is only likely a playoff team but nothing stellar. There, I am seeking to trade Wayne if I can get good value for the reasons mentioned by others here. For those teams, Wayne’s declining perceived value will become an issue very soon.

 
SELL.

He finished 3rd in PPR and 6th in NON-PPR in 2009. IMO, we've seen Wayne's peak numbers already, and it's going downhill from here - not saying fast downhill, but i wont be surprised if he's at #11-15 for the next 2-3 years, or at best 1 more top-10 year. Garcon/Collie/Gonzo are all going to take targets away from him moving forward. I think the realistic expectation for Wayne is 80sh/1100sh/7.

I dont buy into what you've done over the last few years. It's what I think you will do moving forward. Is he safer than Chad, Roddy, VJax, Austin? most would say yes, and probably so. But playing it safe more often than not means making the playoffs in your league but not winning it all and coming in 4th-6th.

 
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fruity pebbles said:
He's still top 10 dynasty wise for me but just barely. He'll be 32 this season and although i think he's got a few good seasons left his trade value is about to fall off the cliff.
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:shrug: I think Garcon is about to become a much bigger part of the Colts' offense now's the time to sell high on Wayne, and buy low on Garcon. :lmao:
 
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doowain said:
This was point 1b of my thread here. I find Reggie Wayne to be overvalued right now. I don't see why similarly productive WRs (Chad, Steve Smith) have taken such a nose dive in value and Wayne hasn't. Is it really just the Peyton factor?

Now is the time to sell. His value will only decrease from here. Do it while his value is still holding strong.
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How are the two guys you've named "similarly productive" WRs?
 
In my league, I would only trade Wayne if I got DeSean Jackson or Greg Jennings in return. Here's why....

Just running through some names, in no specific order...

Andre Johnson - Basically unattainable in keeper/dynasty leagues imo, so I don't even think of him when looking at trades options.

Larry Fitzgerald - Stock has lowered and may CONTINUE to lower if Leinart is as terrible as everybody expects. Pretty weak argument though, I know.

Sidney Rice - Do you think he can do it without a legitimate quarterback if/when Favre leaves? Although, I believe Favre returns in 2010. 2011 is a question mark.

Randy Moss - I own Tom Brady, but I'm not a fan of having a "connection". That, and when Ole Dirty Randy got me a goose egg in my playoffs. I've since traded him, and preached nothing but hate.

Vincent Jackson - VJax was one of my keepers heading into this offseason, but I've since traded him. Probable suspension looming ahead. Don't get me wrong, he's a great WR, but I don't like players with character issues. Signed, ex Brandon Marshall owner.

Calvin Johnson - I don't want to own any player from DET.

Roddy White - Already own him

Miles Austin - Already own him

Santonio Holmes - I think last year was a good example of his ceiling.

Anquan Boldin - Plain and simple, the guy can't stay healthy. That's it.

Marques Colston - Just never really been a fan I guess. I don't know why. Brees does love to spread the ball around A LOT.

Steve Smith - WASHED UP....or soon to be at least.

Ochocinco - On MY fantasy team? I don't think so.

I mean, I already own Wayne, Austin, and Roddy in a PPR keeper league. I don't think I can do much better.

 
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