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Ryan Mathews Dynasty Value (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Titletown_Favres
- Start date
Faust
MVP
Skeletore Eh
Footballguy
Ryan Mathews - RB - Chargers
Ryan Mathews led the league in fantasy points per snap at the running back position last season.
Mathews' 0.40 fantasy points per snap in standard scoring led the league, and his 0.46 mark in PPR finished second behind only Jamaal Charles. Mathews is coming off a bounce-back season that saw him set career-highs in games played (16), carries (285), and yards (1,255). He was fantasy's No. 12 running back. We have Mathews as our No. 17 back entering the summer. But if he can stay healthy and remain the Chargers' early-down back, another RB1 finish is achievable.
Source: Pro Football Focus
Jun 27 - 10:24 AM
Ryan Mathews led the league in fantasy points per snap at the running back position last season.
Mathews' 0.40 fantasy points per snap in standard scoring led the league, and his 0.46 mark in PPR finished second behind only Jamaal Charles. Mathews is coming off a bounce-back season that saw him set career-highs in games played (16), carries (285), and yards (1,255). He was fantasy's No. 12 running back. We have Mathews as our No. 17 back entering the summer. But if he can stay healthy and remain the Chargers' early-down back, another RB1 finish is achievable.
Source: Pro Football Focus
Jun 27 - 10:24 AM
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
This is pretty amazing considering his ridiculous snap : touch ratio last year. When Matthews is in the game, everyone in the building knew he was going to be carrying the ball, and he still put up spectacular efficiency numbers. And it's not like his offensive line was elite (although it did seem to be much improved last year). Matthews is going to be $$$ in the bank value in FF yet again this year.
valhallan
Footballguy
I got in a hilarious argument on another forum about Daryl Richardson vs Ryan Mathews last off-season. Guy was adamant Richardson was a diamond and Mathews was trash. Haven't heard from that guy in a while.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Given San Diego's success while featuring Matthews at the end of last year, I'm definitely not expecting what we saw last year the first month and a half or so when Woodhead was getting a ton of work plus red zone and the team was so pass heavy. From week 7 - 17 Matthews was RB10, and I think expecting a RB10 - RB12 finish in 2014 is pretty reasonable. I also believe that he's got upside above a low end RB1 finish -- he was RB7 in 2011 and IMO he's a better blocker than Woodhead and equal in receiving ability. I'm not expecting 50 catches, but nor would I be shocked if it played out that way.cstu said:
Bottom line, he's currently sitting at RB20 for redraft, and barring injury I'm HUGELY confident that he can exceed that. He being drafted in a clump with Trent Richardson, Ben Tate, and Ray Rice, and IMO his floor and ceiling are both significantly higher than dudes like that.
matttyl
Footballguy
Pretty sure L Blount blew him out of the water in this category (if counting special teams points). Just mean to say that I'm not sure that stat means all that much.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Agree that FF points per snap isn't anything to get super excited about in itself -- but it further reinforces Matthews' excellent stats last year (both volume and rate). Matthews is a quality RB in both NFL and FF terms.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
It would have been amazing if he DIDN'T have a ridiculous touch:snap ratio. The easiest way to get a lot of fantasy points per snap is to get a lot of touches per snap. In fact, I would argue that the touch:snap ratio probably explains the majority of the point:snap ratio.
I wouldn't call his efficiency numbers "spectacular". He ranked 19th in rushing DVOA, 17th in Success Rate, 29th in PFF's grades (31st in rushing only), and 28th in EPA/P. I do agree that San Diego's predictable playcalling almost certainly hurt those numbers, but that's still pretty far from "spectacular". He had a strong season. Despite the low snap count, he still managed to rank 4th in the NFL in rushing attempts. I think it'll be hard for him to match that kind of volume again.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
True on the points / snap issue, and agreed that "spectacular" was too strong -- somehow I jumbled points per touch and points per snap in my head posting on the fly in the middle of a meeting. Given the entirety of the situation, I find Matthews 2013 efficiency pretty compelling personally. In a predictable offense behind a mediocre at best line, his 4.4 YPC is pretty damn good IMO.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
I'd agree with that- it was a strong year, especially given how predictable the offense was with him on the field. It wasn't amazing or anything- it was a good year. And it's easy to lose sight of just how much volume Mathews wound up actually receiving, even though he started the season slow and barely saw the field on passing downs.
Rockchild
Footballguy
Adam Harstad
Moderator
No. According to PFF, San Diego ran 1140 offensive snaps last year. Ryan Mathews was on the field for 480 of them. He wound up with 311 touches, which works out to 0.65 touches per snap (or, alternately, one touch per 1.54 offensive snaps). That's a ridiculously high rate- basically, if Ryan Mathews was on the field, there was a 2 out of 3 chance the ball was going to wind up in his hands.Isn't it one touch per snap!
For context, Jamaal Charles only touched the ball on 38% of the offensive snaps where he was on the field. Lesean McCoy touched it on 41% of his snaps. Adrian Peterson pretty much carried the Minnesota Vikings' offense, and he only touched the ball on 45% of his offensive snaps. There was perhaps no team in the NFL that was as predictable as the Chargers with Mathews on the field.
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Skeletore Eh
Footballguy
Ryan Mathews- RB - Chargers
Chargers OC Frank Reich said RB Ryan Mathews will remain the main back in San Diego.
"Ryan is the pounder," Reich said. "He’s going to be the primary workhorse. He’s our guy." The signing of Donald Brown seemed to signal a decrease in role for Mathews, but Reich called Brown a "big-play guy" and spoke about him as more of a change-of-pace back. If he can stay healthy, Mathews could once again be a 250-plus carry back.
Source: chargers.com
Jul 7 - 12:39 PM
Chargers OC Frank Reich said RB Ryan Mathews will remain the main back in San Diego.
"Ryan is the pounder," Reich said. "He’s going to be the primary workhorse. He’s our guy." The signing of Donald Brown seemed to signal a decrease in role for Mathews, but Reich called Brown a "big-play guy" and spoke about him as more of a change-of-pace back. If he can stay healthy, Mathews could once again be a 250-plus carry back.
Source: chargers.com
Jul 7 - 12:39 PM
cstu
Footballguy
I believe he's telling the truth about Brown being the COP back but I think he'll have more carries than Ronnie Brown had last year (45).
steveski
Footballguy
I agree but I don't really know if COP is really the right term. I think he'll be used more to give Mathews some breathers and keep him fresh. When I think of a true COP back, I think of a guy with a different skillset. Maybe one guy is great between the tackles and the COP guy is great out in space. Donald Brown seems to be similar to Mathews but smaller and slower, so I don't really see a scenario where they'd prefer Brown in the game over Mathews.
Tau837
Footballguy
Matthews is a cusp player for me: I'm happy if he's my rb2, less than thrilled if he's my rb1.
Top ten finish is not likely, but see him about rb15 overall. Durability is always a concern. He's missed some time over the past few years, which takes him out of the rb1 territory.
Top ten finish is not likely, but see him about rb15 overall. Durability is always a concern. He's missed some time over the past few years, which takes him out of the rb1 territory.
johnadams
Footballguy
I think I'm in this camp. Mathews is one of those guys who makes me think that, unless I have top five-ish pick, I might wait on RB a bit more than usual this year.
The points per snap isn't a great indicator of anything, but it gives a decent barometer that he might have some room to add to his stats. I gotta think SD is going to have him playing more snaps even if it means a bit less work just to make sure that he doesn't get keyed on every time he's in the game. If so, it should lead to more touches. Just a barometer that suggests upside over 2013 is there.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Top 10 is asking a lot unless they ramp up his usage in the passing game IMO. Week six last year is when SD really started leaning on Matthews, and from that point on he was RB10 in standard and RB12 in PPR. He's got the talent to be a top 10 RB IMO, but Woodhead's presence dominating the passing down snaps probably caps his upside in 2014. RB10 - RB15 seems like a more reasonable range to me personally.
Tau837
Footballguy
Not that it matters much, but using week 6 on allows some players who had early byes to get an extra game on him, since the Chargers' bye was after week 6. He was #9 in ppg from week 6 to week 17 in my non-PPR dynasty league.
I expect he will see more snaps and will get more targets this season, so I think he could crack the top 10 if he stays healthy enough.
Beerguzzler
Footballguy
I would be wary of Matthews. I really wouldn't be surprised to see him pulled in the red zone for Brown. The thing about Brown is that he can catch passes and he can run it so it won't tip their hand to play selection, which they do with Woodhead and Matthews. Matthews also has had poor field vision his entire career and was something mentioned by Norv. If something is not blocked, he's not going to make something out of nothing. Brown is a more elusive runner which will help at the goal line.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/04/17/sig-stats-elusive-rating/
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/04/17/sig-stats-elusive-rating/
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Agree that he could finish higher -- I was mainly responding to the "don't see any way he's not top 10." I think he's still undervalued, but I'd be careful with projecting a top 10 season as a most likely case.
RBM
Footballguy
Beerguzzler
Footballguy
And yet two different coaching staffs have decided not to use him in that capacity. I don't really care about reasoning, I'm all about what happens on the field. He's simply not used in the passing game. If that changes, it can be taken into account.Everything the coaching staff has said so far points to Brown potentially being a red zone guy. They are emphasizing red zone scoring. It was one of the reasons they drafted Grice. Everything points to improved TD production. You don't think they targeted Brown for a reason?
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footballman_696969
Footballguy
I don't see the Chargers using Matthews the way they did between weeks 6-17 last year. It works out to 21.5 touches/per game. I think they brought Donald Brown in so they could take some of the weight off Matthews shoulders.
And if the Chargers do decide to let Matthews handle the rock that many times, I don't think he'll stay healthy for the entire season.
Tau837
Footballguy
Brown is not a more elusive runner. He was great last season, but Mathews had a higher elusive rating than Brown in 2010, 2011, and 2012.
You also imply that Mathews is not a good receiver, which is untrue. He had 89 receptions for 707 receiving yards in 26 games in 2011 and 2012. That scales to 55/435 (7.9 ypr) per 16 games. The coaching staff chose not to use him in that role last season, giving almost all of that work to Woodhead. IMO that was a mistake. Not that they shouldn't use Woodhead, just that they should not have been so predictable in their usage of Mathews.
I expect that will change a bit this season.
Beerguzzler
Footballguy
Why would you expect that? There has been no indication whatsoever from the coaching staff or front office to suggest that Matthews will be incorporated in the passing game. They have even gone out of their way to say he's the guy expected to pound it between/off tackle. Everything they have done up to date is to keep de-emphasizing RM's role in the passing game.
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Beerguzzler
Footballguy
As far as Brown vs. Matthews and who's the more elusive player. All I can say is that Brown has 300 less carries of wear and tear and is a year younger (plus no significant injury history).
Last season Matthews didn't really have much wiggle. He gained what was blocked and what he could run people over for. Hardly ever saw him make people miss, he ran over them, but surely he wasn't reminding anyone of Barry Sanders.
Brown is just a different type of back that prefers to squeeze through windows vs. running over a guy.
Last season Matthews didn't really have much wiggle. He gained what was blocked and what he could run people over for. Hardly ever saw him make people miss, he ran over them, but surely he wasn't reminding anyone of Barry Sanders.
Brown is just a different type of back that prefers to squeeze through windows vs. running over a guy.
Beerguzzler
Footballguy
Of course that's also a very strong consideration, but everything coming out of chargers park is that he's going to play. Telesco and McCoy have made emphasizing red zone scoring a priority this offseason. He can run and catch and make that first guy miss. He's a change of pace guy is the exact quote by them. I suspect that change of pace will occur close to the red zone given his varied skill set.
Beerguzzler
Footballguy
Matthews averaged 2.6 yards per carry and only scored five touchdowns within the opponent’s 20-yard line.
Brown averaged 3.9 yards per carry in the red zone last season and scored the same amount of touchdowns as Mathews (five) on 17 less carries.
Chargers got into the red zone a disgusting amount last year, but ranked 23rd in red zone scoring. It was criminal.
They brought in a stud blocking TE in Johnson and signed Brown. They drafted a OG in the third round to push Clary at RG (his run blocking is lacking).
Everything points to improving red zone run scoring. It may very well translate to Matthews having better TD numbers, but it could also mean Brown was brought in to take those TD opportunities to make this offense more efficient.
Brown averaged 3.9 yards per carry in the red zone last season and scored the same amount of touchdowns as Mathews (five) on 17 less carries.
Chargers got into the red zone a disgusting amount last year, but ranked 23rd in red zone scoring. It was criminal.
They brought in a stud blocking TE in Johnson and signed Brown. They drafted a OG in the third round to push Clary at RG (his run blocking is lacking).
Everything points to improving red zone run scoring. It may very well translate to Matthews having better TD numbers, but it could also mean Brown was brought in to take those TD opportunities to make this offense more efficient.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
I personally don't think that Donald Brown is as good as Ryan Matthews in any aspect of being a RB. He's certainly not a better power / goal line runner -- not even close. That said, neither is Danny Woodhead, and that didn't stop SD from using him in that capacity for a good chunk of last year. All told, SD was pretty successful last year when they stopped trying to throw so much and just bludgeoned defenses with Matthews. And Matthews responded really well to the increased workload and was voted the team's MVP. I think it pretty likely that the coaches try to stick with what carried them to the playoffs last year.
Tau837
Footballguy
Which two coaching staffs? Norv's coaching staff was using him as a receiver at a rate that averaged 55/435 per 16 games.Beerguzzler said:
The current coaching staff chose not to use him as much as a receiver, and that's largely because they signed Woodhead. But consider these splits:
Games 1-8: Mathews 7/66 on 8 targets (Woodhead had 57 targets)
Games 9-16: Mathews 19/123 on 25 targets (Woodhead had 30 targets)
Mathews didn't set the world on fire in the second half last year, but they clearly utilized him more in the passing game, at the expense of Woodhead.
Tau837
Footballguy
In their careers from opponent's 5 yard line to goal line:
Brown (2009-2013): 19/31/7 rushing (+1 additional first down) + 2/2/0 receiving on 2 targets
Mathews (2010-2013): 17/25/8 rushing + 0/0/0 receiving on 0 targets
In their careers from opponent's 20 yard line to goal line:
Brown (2009-2013): 80/292/14 rushing (+10 additional first downs) + 9/55/1 receiving on 15 targets (+1 additional first down)
Mathews (2010-2013): 88/292/15 rushing (+7 additional first downs) + 7/46/1 receiving on 7 targets
I see no evidence that Brown is a better goal line or red zone RB. And those blockers will be blocking for Mathews as well as Brown.
Tau837
Footballguy
Wise Old Owl
Footballguy
Does anyone have the splits on goalline carries from last year? I seem to remember them going with Woodhead and Ronnie Brown in the red zone early in the season with little success. I think Mathews got more opportunities at the goal line toward the end of the year and had more success.
cstu
Footballguy
Here are the stats inside the 5 last year:
Mathews: 7 carries for 4 yards (0.71 YPC), 4 TD
Woodhead: 6 carries for 12 yards (2 YPC), 2 TD
Ronnie Brown: 6 carries for -2 yards (-0.67 YPC), 1 TD
Donald Brown: 3 carries for 8 yards (2.68 YPC), 3 TD
- Donald should be an good improvement over Ronnie.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
How and why would they indicate anything about their offensive philosophies/roles at this point? Training camp hasn't even started yet.Beerguzzler said:
Beerguzzler is clueless. He was talking about how bad Mathews was last year, too, IIRC. He couldn't even be bothered to look up his usage in the passing game under Norv before spouting off proof of ignorance. After his rookie year, Mathews had 50 rec in 14 games and 39 and 12 games under Norv and clearly earned some trust in the passing game from the new regime as the season went on last year. Trolls will be trolls, but I guess some are easier to refute than others.
Beerguzzler
Footballguy
Clearly clueless.
Matthews had 33 total targets last year. He'll get a dump off here and there, but that's it. He comes off the field on 3rd down every single time unless it's short yardage. He's a two down back. He's off the field in hurry up situations. He was subbed off in passing plays in the red zone.
Someone is clueless, it's not me.
You guys can point to all the stats you want, there's 1 simple reason why he's pulled - His pass blocking is #### and he misses his assignments.
Matthews had 33 total targets last year. He'll get a dump off here and there, but that's it. He comes off the field on 3rd down every single time unless it's short yardage. He's a two down back. He's off the field in hurry up situations. He was subbed off in passing plays in the red zone.
Someone is clueless, it's not me.
You guys can point to all the stats you want, there's 1 simple reason why he's pulled - His pass blocking is #### and he misses his assignments.
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Tau837
Footballguy
Mathews was a better pass blocker than Woodhead last season. Per PFF:
Pass blocking efficiency: Mathews 87.5%, Woodhead 85%.
In 20 pass blocking snaps last season, Mathews allowed 2 hurries and 1 sack for 3 total pressures.
In 54 pass blocking snaps last season, Woodhead allowed 8 hurries and 2 sacks for 10 total pressures.
Pass blocking certainly isn't Mathews' strength, but he's good enough, and better than Woodhead.
Donald Brown is better, but given that Mathews is out on most third downs anyway, that implies Brown will eat more into Woodhead's snaps than Mathews'.
Beerguzzler
Footballguy
You have to take into account the pass rushing situation. Matthews is blocking early downs when there's no blitzing and generally base defenses. Woodhead is blocking vs. pass rush lines and exotic blitzes.
You can go ahead and think Matthews is good or even adequate as a pass blocker if you like. All I have to say is that there's a reason that both Norv and McCoy have subbed him out in passing downs for his entire career.
In any case, I still stand by my assertion that Brown will potentially take red zone work from Matthews due to his versatility in doing both jobs.
You can go ahead and think Matthews is good or even adequate as a pass blocker if you like. All I have to say is that there's a reason that both Norv and McCoy have subbed him out in passing downs for his entire career.
In any case, I still stand by my assertion that Brown will potentially take red zone work from Matthews due to his versatility in doing both jobs.
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Wise Old Owl
Footballguy
Even if I agreed with everything you said here, which I don't, Mathews still presents great value right now. Basically you are giving reasons why he won't top 5 this season. No one is arguing that. He's a great RB2 with low RB1 potential, he has some warts but name a RB being drafted around him with a higher ceiling.
This team won down the stretch and made playoffs when they ran the ball through Mathews. They also looked lost when he got hurt. Brown is insurance to prevent this team falling off the rails when or if Mathews misses time.
