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Sell high/Buy low, Week 1 edition (1 Viewer)

sell High

WR Hurns

RB Sproles

maybe RB Ingram

Buy

QB Romo if you don't have to pay a lot

WR Cruz

TE Cameron and TE Reed if people are scared on those injuries

 
I was hoping Cutler would blow-up week 1 so I could ship him away as a sell high. I've regretted waiting on QB ever since I wound up w/ him as my starter, and now he's down 2 o-linement & his top to outside targets are gimpy

Anywho, lots of good examples posted here, though I question the ability to make worthwhile deals for many of the players listed, on either side of the ledger, unless peeps be in leagues full of idiots.

 
MNTom said:
shader said:
I don't like most of these. You can't buy low on a guy that just had a bad week. No Dez owner is going to panic in week 1.

A true buy-low guy is a player who looks truly pathetic or who is in a horrible situation.

Zac Stacy

Sankey

A.Foster

V.Jackson

RG3

Latimer

I'd say all of these guys, except maybe Romo can be had much cheaper than last week.
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I would be hard to get Foster cheaper than last week. 27 rushes for 103 yards. Not many RB's that are going to get that many attempts.
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:lmao: :lmao: :lmao:

 
Sell high

Lamar Miller

Moreno

Sproles

Buy low

Keenan Allen

Victor Cruz

*Demarco Murray* I understand he had a great game but I think he will be a top 3 back this season so it all relative to what you could give up for him.

 
Definitely buying Hunter... if not for controlling the game he would have gotten more attempts. Plus he had two goal-line targets that he just missed. I think he blows up at some point.... 1000/8 easily.

 
elitzer said:
jbz said:
Hunter is a good call. Just re-watched the game and he got 2 good looks near the endzone. One he caught but was pushed out at the 1. The other Locker underthrew him. Only matter of time before he starts cashing in.

i didnt get to watch game.did hunter drop passes,he was thrown to 8 times.what do you guys think about trading hurns for him?
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He might have dropped one, but nothing easy/gimmee types.

Personally, I'd trade Hurns for him. I buy more into Wisenhunt and Hunter's talent over Hurns and Jax. Hurns might benefit from being in a trailing position more, but I question what his snaps/targets look like when/if Shorts returns.

 
I'm not sure what Hunter owner is going to give him up for Hurns after drafting him as a high upside flier.

 
matuski said:
hines said:
lol at getting WR1 value for Steve Smith. one big play does not give a WR4 WR1 value.
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Not sure this statement could be more wrong.
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No kidding. This is pretty much what Steve Smith has been doing his entire career. Proving he is still doing it just tells me he is still Steve Smith. People sure get blinded by age. If a team rolled out a WR lineup of Smith, Wayne, and Andre Johnson this week they got about 55-60 points and didn't use but one of their top 8-9 picks to get it.

 
Just traded away Deandre Hopkins and Greg Olsen in a PPR league for Eddie Lacy and Charles Clay. Some owners do get nervous, and I had Rice as my RB2 behind Demarco. If Lacy can get over the concussions, should be good.

 
hines said:
...I will go with more realistic options

sell high: CJ Spiller (easy to convince someone that he is the clear lead back in Buffalo and has elite talent)

...
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irishnips said:
Would anyone offer Dez for Charles? I'm week at RB with AP, Tate (hurt), Gerhart (hurt) and Spiller (not sure what to think there).
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I'm kind of turning my thinking around on Spiller, almost a 50/50 carry split with Fred/Manuel/Dixon, but still, it's such a run heavy offense. 15 carries is 15 carries.

 
Shutout said:
matuski said:
hines said:
lol at getting WR1 value for Steve Smith. one big play does not give a WR4 WR1 value.
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Not sure this statement could be more wrong.
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No kidding. This is pretty much what Steve Smith has been doing his entire career. Proving he is still doing it just tells me he is still Steve Smith. People sure get blinded by age. If a team rolled out a WR lineup of Smith, Wayne, and Andre Johnson this week they got about 55-60 points and didn't use but one of their top 8-9 picks to get it.
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Add Jennings or Boldin minus AJ and they didn't use any top picks,

 
Sell High:

Andrew Hawkins, solid game in a Brown's offense that actually looked formidable. They came close to pulling off a win at Heinz Field. Sell high before news of Josh Gordon breaks, and injury update regarding Cameron. After we know how both those situations pan out he becomes a buy low.

 
You guys are nuts selling Sproles UNLESS you can get someone to overpay. His value won't go below draft position, so you know the floor - how high do you want him to get before you sell?

 
Doug Martin is a buy low. 9 yds on 9 carries then he gets hurt, so while he didn't look great it was only 9 carries. Team says injury is minor. A lot of nervous Martin owners right now, you could probably get him just giving up a flex starter.

 
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Sell High:

B.Cooks

K. Benjamin

Buy Low

Dez

Charles

Lacy

Cutler

Jeffery

Martin

 
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I'm hopeful Cruz is a buy low. I think he still gets his as the offense improves even somewhat incrementally.

 
Buy Low
Nick Foles: I think some were spooked by the first half and not impressed with the flukiness of the TD to Maclin. Losing Mathis hurts a ton and the line could be shaky at least until Lane gets back. But ultimately let's remember it was week 1 and he was out of sync...he'll settle down and make smarter decisions going forward. That offense is too dynamic not to keeping racking up the FPs.

Montee Ball: Not sure you'll get any sellers but its worth asking. The low ypc might give you a chance.

TY Hilton: Double digit targets is all I really want to hear.

Toby Gerhart: Most were hoping for a good game against a bad philly d (but the eagles rush d is actually pretty solid) and instead he comes away with an injury on a nasty looking play. If you can get him cheap its worth the risk.

Sell High
Patterson: Fun to watch, but I think he'll be horribly inconsistent in ppr leagues until he becomes a more complete receiver. There will definitely be takers.

Maclin: I'm still concerned with his ability to stay healthy and his consistency on an offense that spreads the ball around...he put up 19 points or so in ppr and 16 of those were on a busted coverage, but the stat line looks pretty. See what you can get.

 
I'm surprised no one has mentioned Russell Wilson. He looked pretty decent, but didn't have big numbers. You might be able to get him cheap if he's someones backup QB.

 
Avery said:
shader said:
I don't like most of these. You can't buy low on a guy that just had a bad week. No Dez owner is going to panic in week 1.

A true buy-low guy is a player who looks truly pathetic or who is in a horrible situation.

Zac Stacy

Sankey

A.Foster

V.Jackson

RG3

Latimer

I'd say all of these guys, except maybe Romo can be had much cheaper than last week.
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:confused:

29 touches and 120 yards. Lack of any TDs moved him down to high RB2 for week 1 but I'm not sure what you wanted to see.
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Yeah, I interrupted my reading to comment that Foster just got a glowing review over at Yahoo! and is in their top ten board. He's not a buy low. If anything, he's a sell high.

 
Just to provide some real life perspective to this thread, the following trade just occured in my keeper league:

Team A: Michael Floyd, Jay Cutler, Marqise Lee

Team B: Arian Foster, Keenan Allen

This trade includes several players mentioned in this thread, and to me indicates that Michael Floyd may be a sell high. I feel Fitz's lack of usage Monday has vaulted his value higher than it likely will be in a few weeks. I am even a Michael Floyd fan, but have a hard time viewing him as a top 8 WR. It also shows Keenan Allen may be a buy low, as the Charger's offensive performance likely spooked owners. Not sure what the Cutler/Foster aspect of this trade indicates about their values.

 
I think Bernard is a sell high.

They Bengals didn't draft Hill to ride the pine, nor has he shown anything during preseason to warrant his lack of action. Marvin Lewis has obviously been tentatively to throw rookies into the mix right out of the gate. Hill's touches WILL increase, at the expense of Bernard.

 
Big time by low on Bernard Pierce. With Rice being cut, imagine what his value would be right now if he hadn't fumbled. His first career fumble isn't going to factor into his playing time long-term and Harbaugh has even said as much. Yet in a week where Ray Rice was cut and you'd expect Pierce's cost to explode, it's actually LOWER now than it was a week ago due to something that's not going to be a consideration going forward.

He will likely be Baltimore's lead back going forward now, instead of just for the first two games, yet you can buy him at a cheaper price than you could when people thought he was mostly going to be a two game stop-gap. Value.

 
chinawildman said:
I think Bernard is a sell high.

They Bengals didn't draft Hill to ride the pine, nor has he shown anything during preseason to warrant his lack of action. Marvin Lewis has obviously been tentatively to throw rookies into the mix right out of the gate. Hill's touches WILL increase, at the expense of Bernard.
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But how do you sell high on Gio after week 1? His points were there in PPR, but he didn't do anything to dramatically change his value one way or another. You may get some bump in value from the people who were scared of a timeshare, but don't know if that combined with his week 1 production nets you any huge value.

I don't necessarily believe in the "they didn't sign/trade for player X just to bench them" narrative, especially at RB. I've made some offers to trade Marshawn Lynch for him (in a league with keeper implications, and not outright). I think his work in the passing game will keep his floor high in PPR leagues, even if Hill's carries increase.

 
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FreeBaGeL said:
Big time by low on Bernard Pierce. With Rice being cut, imagine what his value would be right now if he hadn't fumbled. His first career fumble isn't going to factor into his playing time long-term and Harbaugh has even said as much. Yet in a week where Ray Rice was cut and you'd expect Pierce's cost to explode, it's actually LOWER now than it was a week ago due to something that's not going to be a consideration going forward.

He will likely be Baltimore's lead back going forward now, instead of just for the first two games, yet you can buy him at a cheaper price than you could when people thought he was mostly going to be a two game stop-gap. Value.
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great posting

 
FF Wiseguy said:
chinawildman said:
I think Bernard is a sell high.

They Bengals didn't draft Hill to ride the pine, nor has he shown anything during preseason to warrant his lack of action. Marvin Lewis has obviously been tentatively to throw rookies into the mix right out of the gate. Hill's touches WILL increase, at the expense of Bernard.
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But how do you sell high on Gio after week 1? His points were there in PPR, but he didn't do anything to dramatically change his value one way or another. You may get some bump in value from the people who were scared of a timeshare, but don't know if that combined with his week 1 production nets you any huge value.

I don't necessarily believe in the "they didn't sign/trade for player X just to bench them" narrative, especially at RB. I've made some offers to trade Marshawn Lynch for him (in a league with keeper implications, and not outright). I think his work in the passing game will keep his floor high in PPR leagues, even if Hill's carries increase.
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I don't see "sell highs" as obvious sells where a guy had some fluke game. The fact that you would argue in favor of Bernard means that he is actually sellable and enticing enough. Selling Bernard would mean moving to get some guy who disappointed in week one like Charles or Lacy. Sure Bernard has value and plenty of it, but it's more likely that his playing time will only go down as the season progresses, and the games that REALLY matter are in December. If it's possible to move him for a guy who is a sure fire workhorse 3 down back, why not?

 
If anything Bernard is a hold. In no way he is a sell, IMO. Sells happen - for a first or second round pick - when you string together at least a couple great games and still believe in your preseason rankings enough to sell him for a guy you really wanted but couldn't get.

 
I don't there is any urgency when I say Bernard is a sell high. But recall last season's week1 snap counts between Bernard (21) and Law Firm(37). By week 3 it was Bernard(30) Law Firm(23). Now obviously much of that has to do with BJGE's inferior talent. However it also shows that while the coaches are hesitant to throw a rookie RB in the fire, they won't hesitate to work them in as the season progresses.

THose with Bernard can elect to hold onto him to see if he can inflate his value. However as of right now you can state your case that Bernard is a "bellcow" 3 down back. Will this still hold in 3 weeks? From what I've seen of Hill in the preseason I'm inclined to say no.

 
Seems a bit low to me. If I have a top 5 guy at a position, I don't think there's much point trading him unless you're getting an elite guy back. Those other two players are nice, but you're really just helping the other person strengthen his team by consolidating depth to get an elite player (plus he frees up roster space with the 2 for 1). Just my opinion.

 
Sir Psycho said:
Got an offer for DEZ..

Dez for Harvin + Eldeman. (not ppr)

Is this too low ?
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I think it is, but I'm almost never one to give up elite talents after 1 week. Everything is based on your roster though. If you went Dez/RB/RB/RB (say Bell/vereen/Jennings) and you are light on WR I could see doing it because Harvin could be a low end WR1. But that's just on fairness of the actual trade. You do have to give up a bench slot and he gains one so consider that as well

 
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