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Sleeper Alert: Rob Kelley - RB - WAS (1 Viewer)

killface said:
As Kelley dynasty owner I can't believe they would go into the season with him.  He's a dud.  
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He'd be a sell for me. I'm guessing same for you, but you just can't find any buyer that believes, based on your last comment.

I'm not trying to sell him short because he's already defied major odds just accomplishing what he did last season, but that offense is dying for a playmaker at the RB position. With this draft class I would be fairly surprised if the Skins don't at least spend a mid round pick on the position.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
He'd be a sell for me. I'm guessing same for you, but you just can't find any buyer that believes, based on your last comment.

I'm not trying to sell him short because he's already defied major odds just accomplishing what he did last season, but that offense is dying for a playmaker at the RB position. With this draft class I would be fairly surprised if the Skins don't at least spend a mid round pick on the position.
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I tried already to sell him.  He's pretty much just a week 3 cut at this point.  Nobody in my league was even considering buying.

 
killface said:
I tried already to sell him.  He's pretty much just a week 3 cut at this point.  Nobody in my league was even considering buying.
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Tell me about it. Packaged him with a 3rd and shopped him around to try to get some WRs I thought were undervalued - but basically got laughed at.

 
Traded him for Woods. Hopefully Woods goes somewhere with a QB. PPR so I'm sure he'll catch more lol.

 
CabinFever said:
Middle school league? ;)  
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Some people are always chasing.

Rob Kelley was a solid RB (RB15) last year after taking over the starting job, at a position of scarcity.

Donte Moncrief has never finished better than WR36 and last year was WR47 in PPG (WR56 overall) despite flukish TD production while playing at a stacked position where everyone has extra WR3 type players.

He's like the Christine Michael of WRs, only with a lot less flashes of talent.  There are a lot of WRs with a much better pedigree than Moncrief that were given a much shorter leash.

It's been 451 days since Moncrief last topped 70 yards receiving in a football game.

 
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I own him on a couple of teams and would love to trade him. The problem is I can't find anyone who believes in him enough so I am better off holding and hoping he is just being over looked again.  Not a high risk gamble for me because I just invested some FA bucks in him last season.

 
CabinFever said:
Middle school league? ;)  
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Guy was trying to make the playoffs and needed RB help desperately. And as Freebagel said, Kelley was a solid RB3 with RB2 upside and Moncrief hasn't been anything special.  Montcrief was out with an injury at the time and hadnt done much at the time of the trade. 

 
CSN Mid-Atlantic's J.P. Finlay expects Rob Kelley to remain the lead back in Washington.

Finlay reports the team has "been impressed" by Kelley's work this offseason, although if they were completely sold on him as the lead back they likely would not have drafted Samaje Perine in the fourth round. Even so, Finlay expects Perine to be more of a short-yardage back as a rookie. Finlay's colleague Rich Tandler also expects Kelley to keep the job throughout training camp, but he is less confident in his ability to hold off Perine during the season. This position battle will be one of the more interesting ones to watch during training camp.

 
 
Source: CSN Mid-Atlantic 
May 12 - 11:55 AM
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I think Kelley can again fall into sleeper and underrated category.

There are tons of people dismissing Kelley for Perine already. Kelley has already proven as a rookie that he can play at the NFL level and although he won't run away from anyone he was reliable at churning out yards and more importantly protecting the football. I think it would have been more worrisome had the Redskins drafted or brought in someone other than Perrine. I actually think the way the draft played out it was a vote of confidence for Kelley. Sure Perine was drafted to push Kelley, but the Redskins were always going to take a rb in the draft somewhere as they needed a back up to Kelley. I mean the Steelers spend a 3rd on Connor to back up Bell. There was 8 rb's taken in the NFL draft prior to the selection of Perine.  

 
Carter_Can_Fly said:
I think Kelley can again fall into sleeper and underrated category.

There are tons of people dismissing Kelley for Perine already. Kelley has already proven as a rookie that he can play at the NFL level and although he won't run away from anyone he was reliable at churning out yards and more importantly protecting the football. I think it would have been more worrisome had the Redskins drafted or brought in someone other than Perrine. I actually think the way the draft played out it was a vote of confidence for Kelley. Sure Perine was drafted to push Kelley, but the Redskins were always going to take a rb in the draft somewhere as they needed a back up to Kelley. I mean the Steelers spend a 3rd on Connor to back up Bell. There was 8 rb's taken in the NFL draft prior to the selection of Perine.  
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All true.  The flip side is that no NFL team considered Kelley good enough to actually spend a draft pick on.  Including the team he starts for.

 
I don't think it's completely absurd to think that a no-namer would emerge as the leading rusher. Kelley is an intriguing prospect. I think it's foolish to rule him out because he was undrafted, but I also think it's foolish to completely disregard the fact that he was undrafted. 

Alfred Morris was a 6th round draft pick (practically a throw away), and he was a top RB for a few years before he drifted off into obscurity. It happens, especially with Washington. In fact, there's only been 1 other Redskin RB of fantasy significance in the last 20 years, and he was drafted round 2 in his respective season. Fun facts, he filed for bankruptcy in 2015 and has 6 kids by 6 women. 

A guy I would keep my eyes on is Keith Marshall. Or maybe that ship sailed a long time ago... I just think he could emerge this year as a serious threat. 

 
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Dr. Dan said:
I don't think it's completely absurd to think that a no-namer would emerge as the leading rusher. Kelley is an intriguing prospect. I think it's foolish to rule him out because he was undrafted, but I also think it's foolish to completely disregard the fact that he was undrafted. 

Alfred Morris was a 6th round draft pick (practically a throw away), and he was a top RB for a few years before he drifted off into obscurity. It happens, especially with Washington. In fact, there's only been 1 other Redskin RB of fantasy significance in the last 20 years, and he was drafted round 2 in his respective season. Fun facts, he filed for bankruptcy in 2015 and has 6 kids by 6 women. 

A guy I would keep my eyes on is Keith Marshall. Or maybe that ship sailed a long time ago... I just think he could emerge this year as a serious threat. 
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I don't rule it out, but I also don't anoint a 4th round pick the starting role simply because he was drafted in the 4th. Particularly considering there is an 89% chance that Perine busts simply by being taken in the 4th:

Running Backs


The position has been devalued over the years but the statistics still show that it is better to draft early if you are looking for a starter.

  • Of the 207 players drafted 33 have become starters for half their careers. This gives an indication that there is a lot of Running Back By Committee (RBBC).
  • There is a very high bust rate for RBs. The first round gives you a 58% chance of finding a starter followed by 25% in the second, 16% in the third, 11% in the fourth, 9% in the fifth, 6% in the sixth and 0% in the 7th.
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Kelley wasn't drafted, but he did average 4.2 yards per carry and is proven to be good at pass blocking, the latter is something Perine wasn't asked to do much in college. 

 
TheFanatic said:
I don't rule it out, but I also don't anoint a 4th round pick the starting role simply because he was drafted in the 4th. Particularly considering there is an 89% chance that Perine busts simply by being taken in the 4th:

Kelley wasn't drafted, but he did average 4.2 yards per carry and is proven to be good at pass blocking, the latter is something Perine wasn't asked to do much in college. 
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I don't like Perine at all. I don't think he has any shot of being more than a situational back in the NFL. 

Like I said above, I think someone else emerges

 
I would not really listen to someone who doesn't like Perine at all but thinks Keith Marshall might be the sleeper future starter. Marshall won't even make the roster even if he's healthy--he's just not a good football player. He's got the measurables but no feel for the position. He's like Seastrunk all over again. 

 
Crap. I may have to take Perine at 1.7 to lock up this backfield.


Samaje Perine - RB -  Redskins



ESPN Redskins reporter John Keim projects Samaje Perine as the team's Week 1 starter at running back.
Keim calls incumbent Rob Kelley a "complementary piece to Perine." The all-time leading rusher at Oklahoma, Perine packs 233 pounds onto a 5-foot-11 frame and caught 40 passes in his three-year college career despite sharing the Sooners' backfield with all-purpose dynamo Joe Mixon. In an efficient Redskins offense, Perine will offer considerable TD upside should he win the job.

 
 


 
Bacon is Delicious said:
Crap. I may have to take Perine at 1.7 to lock up this backfield.


Samaje Perine - RB -  Redskins



ESPN Redskins reporter John Keim projects Samaje Perine as the team's Week 1 starter at running back.
Keim calls incumbent Rob Kelley a "complementary piece to Perine." The all-time leading rusher at Oklahoma, Perine packs 233 pounds onto a 5-foot-11 frame and caught 40 passes in his three-year college career despite sharing the Sooners' backfield with all-purpose dynamo Joe Mixon. In an efficient Redskins offense, Perine will offer considerable TD upside should he win the job.

 
 
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Meh.  Fat Rob is almost a lock to start week 1.  But Gruden also showed last year that he wasn't afraid to bench his week 1 starter.  It could happen again.

 
I have Kelley, Marshall and Perine. Hopefully at least one of them will be fantasy relevant this season. Neither of them seem to be high reception rb's going forward. Thompson and Jones are still there too. Kelley seems like the best bet right now, but it could be a complete cluster#### in season.

 
The Man With No Name said:
I have Kelley, Marshall and Perine. Hopefully at least one of them will be fantasy relevant this season. Neither of them seem to be high reception rb's going forward. Thompson and Jones are still there too. Kelley seems like the best bet right now, but it could be a complete cluster#### in season.
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I agree.  Perine doesn't seem like a high reception guy, but his hands looked excellent at the combine:  http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-combine/0ap3000000797684/Samaje-Perine-2017-Combine-Workout

The only time his hands looked questionable is when he didn't look in a pitch that bounced off his chest.  Otherwise he was catching the ball away from his body and bringing it in.  He did a great job hustling and catching up to the one he got downfield that looked like he might not get or lose his footing on.  His protection and route running will have to improve significantly, but aside from learning the playbook, he's said that's two of his main priorities for training camp.

 
I think Perine is extraordinary in well-blocked plays and not so much so otherwise. I realize that, in of itself, can be said about anyone, but I think it applies more extremely to him. I also don't believe he has too much of the scoot-and-crawl to finish plays with and extra yard or two.

But when plays develop properly, he'll patiently hit his target with good timing and barrel into the second level with nice power and balance. He's also a really sharp, hard-working kid, and I think he'll be fine in pass protection pretty quickly and good enough as a safety outlet. He's never going to be motioning out to the slot and running real routes.

He'll earn his linemen's respect right off the bat in the weight room. He's an absolute monster in there, and I also suspect he'll be a coaches' favorite. I don't think he's a transcendent talent by any means, but I think if things start rolling positively for him that he would keep getting fed.

 
TheFanatic said:
Kelley wasn't drafted, but he did average 4.2 yards per carry and is proven to be good at pass blocking, the latter is something Perine wasn't asked to do much in college. 
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He was asked to play fullback in order to accommodate Joe Mixon in the offense and he performed very well in that role. He was asked to protect their QB a lot more than Mixon was. Perine has a nasty punch at he loves to block.

“I take more pride in blocking than in running the ball because I know how important it is,” he said. “Sometimes it gets overlooked by those on the outside. They see the touchdowns and the catches, but they overlook one of the most important aspects and that’s blocking for the quarterback so he can throw the ball and the receiver can make that spectacular catch.

“Blocking has always been big for me and that’s been one of the things I’ve worked on the most in my game. I’m still improving, but I can see a drastic change from when I started to now.”

“I’ve always wanted to push the fame to other people,” he explained. “I don’t know why but I just don’t like being the center of attention. I just like to win. Whether I’m a big part of that or not, I just like to win. For me to sit here and say, ‘Oh, I was such a big part of this win or that win,’ that’s not what I do.

“I just like to see the team happy and celebrating after a big win.” LINK
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In this article you can see a chart with a heat map of specific skill categories that they grade RB on. The last column is the blocking grade. Perines grade is 39th overall in the entire group and the yellow color indicates this is above average, green would be good,  Orange and red would be below average. Mixon has a better grade, but I don't think they asked him to block as much as Perine.

Here is an article that points out Perines blitz recognition and ability.

Perine is a different animal entirely. Some wide receivers are referred to as “safety blankets” for quarterbacks, meaning they’ll always be a safe option to throw to. Perine is also a safety blanket, but in a different way. His awareness, lateral agility, and massive lower-body strength allow him to function as Mayfield’s guardian angel when assigned to pass block.

Not only does he have the football intelligence and agility to recognize and pick up blitzing defensive backs and linebackers from anywhere across the formation, he has the power to stonewall defensive linemen with their ears pinned back for the quarterback. In the picture below, Perine’s first priority is to protect against a blitz from either of the two inside linebackers. 

Once he has determined that neither is a threat, his area of focus widens to the four pass-rushing defensive linemen.

He scans inside out from the leftmost defensive tackle, who is being double teamed, to the rightmost defensive tackle, who for the moment is occupied with the center, to the rightmost defensive end, who is in the process of beating the redshirt freshman right tackle. He immediately recognizes the DE is the most immediate threat to the quarterback, so he shuffles his feet, moves across the formation while staying balanced the whole time, and transfers his momentum squarely to the oncoming pass-rusher.

He stops the defender cold in his tracks, allowing Mayfield to get the pass off and preventing a blindside hit on the quarterback. Despite Perine’s 166 rushing yards vs Baylor, this was one of his most impressive plays in this game, and one that very few other college running backs are capable of.

Although not quite as effective a pass-blocker as Perine, Mixon is more than able to hold his own when protecting Mayfield. Additionally, Riley effectively utilizes both backs’ skill sets and uses Mixon as a receiver more frequently than Perine.

While Perine shines in pass protection, both backs are equally capable blockers in the run game. When both backs are on the field and one is being utilized as a run-blocker, the run-blocking back is usually used to eliminate pursuit of the runner by cut-blocking the backside defensive end.
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ConnSKINS26 said:
I would not really listen to someone who doesn't like Perine at all but thinks Keith Marshall might be the sleeper future starter. Marshall won't even make the roster even if he's healthy--he's just not a good football player. He's got the measurables but no feel for the position. He's like Seastrunk all over again. 
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I said he is an interesting player to watch. Perine is not very good. But that's why we have a forum, to discuss things like this

He just isn't a complete package. Granted not many teams use a bell cow these days. He could emerge and prove me wrong, that's fine. People will see what they want to see with him. You're a fan, so of course you're going to look at it through rose colored glasses. You don't want him to be a bust. I don't think he will amount to much, but I could easily be wrong. Washington passed on 2 better RBs to take Perine IMO. It's not like they have a stellar record in drafting RBs so I am not too surprised. 

 
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Dr. Dan said:
I said he is an interesting player to watch. Perine is not very good. But that's why we have a forum, to discuss things like this

He just isn't a complete package. Granted not many teams use a bell cow these days. He could emerge and prove me wrong, that's fine. People will see what they want to see with him. You're a fan, so of course you're going to look at it through rose colored glasses. You don't want him to be a bust. I don't think he will amount to much, but I could easily be wrong. Washington passed on 2 better RBs to take Perine IMO. It's not like they have a stellar record in drafting RBs so I am not too surprised. 
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So, he only built up Perine because he's a Skins fan and doesn't want him to be a bust. But he also tore apart Marshall who the Skins drafted the year before. I'm not getting the logic here. Does he only want this year's players not to bust?

I was a fan of Perine as a prospect. I wasn't much of a Marshall fan. I had no idea who Kelley was as a prospect (and rightfully so as he was the longshot of longshots). While he performed better than I ever thought he possibly could, I still do not think he's all that good. Perine should lead this backfield in carries imo, and I think he'll do well.

 
ConnSKINS26 said:
I would not really listen to someone who doesn't like Perine at all but thinks Keith Marshall might be the sleeper future starter. Marshall won't even make the roster even if he's healthy--he's just not a good football player. He's got the measurables but no feel for the position. He's like Seastrunk all over again. 
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I don't have an opinion on Marshall vs Perine (or Kelley). I do think Marshall is an interesting player to keep tabs on though, and think the bolded above is overstated. 

I'm curious where your opinion about him being a bad football player comes from since it seems to differ from other prospect reviews and footage I've seen (not claiming to be a great tape analyst here). We're stipulating that his measurables are close to, if not elite. The narrative on him that I've read and seems valid is that he started off hot and then dealt with a major injury, a followup compensatory injury, and finally got buried behind the deepest RB corps in college ball when he was healthy. During his freshman year, and during the limited carries he had his junior year he played exceptionally well. 

I know... highlights. But check out the very first play. It seems like he has a decent feel for what's going on; no hesitation, quick cut to the hole, maneuvering through traffic, and then showing off that speed: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEDaTV4p28o (again, not claiming to be a scout)

Matt Waldman 2016 RSP: "Marshall can play in any run scheme because he has the speed and quickness to work the spread, but the patience, footwork, and power, to run an I-formation zone or gap scheme." In reference to his draft year season, "Marshall was a different back last year [2015]: He ran harder, ran from more compressed offensive alignments, mostly earned carries between the tackles and from the I-formation, and he faced more defenses that knew he could still bite them in the ### if they played only one safety high. Marshall played 11 games in 2015 and carried 68 times for 350 yards (5.1 ypc) and scored 3 rushing touchdowns." This is just an excerpt (hope you don't mind MW!), the rest is definitely worth a read. MW had him ranked as the 5th best RB, 4th postdraft, from the 2016 class.

If you combine that narrative with his ideal size, elite measurables, and the opportunity in WAS... it seems a stretch to completely rule him out. Dynasty owner here with more hope than optimism... just looking for info/opinions.

 
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Dr. Octopus said:
So, he only built up Perine because he's a Skins fan and doesn't want him to be a bust. But he also tore apart Marshall who the Skins drafted the year before. I'm not getting the logic here. Does he only want this year's players not to bust?

I was a fan of Perine as a prospect. I wasn't much of a Marshall fan. I had no idea who Kelley was as a prospect (and rightfully so as he was the longshot of longshots). While he performed better than I ever thought he possibly could, I still do not think he's all that good. Perine should lead this backfield in carries imo, and I think he'll do well.
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I will agree that whomever emerges as the go to back in Washington will likely out-perform expectations. I'm not saying Perine is a bum, I suppose my words can come across that way. I think he is nothing different than every other back they have on their roster in terms of overall impact. He's an intriguing prospect at a 4th round price. He's in a decent situation. I just don't see him has a fantasy relevant RB this next season above a flex consideration. 

With regard to my statement of him being a Redskins fan... fans get excited about rookies. If a guy doesn't produce in his first 1-2 years he falls out of favor pretty quickly (it seems like yesterday Redskin fans were salivating over Matt Jones). Davonte Adams fell out of favor with a large number of Packer fans. This time last year there was a story on how he could be cut, and many of us (myself included) were in support of that narrative. I was wrong (along with others). I wanted him to be good, but I just didn't see it and felt like we should move on. It's very possible that Connskins is having an Adams moment in Spring.  

Adso said:
I don't have an opinion on Marshall vs Perine (or Kelley). I do think Marshall is an interesting player to keep tabs on though, and think the bolded above is overstated. 

I'm curious where your opinion about him being a bad football player comes from since it seems to differ from other prospect reviews and footage I've seen (not claiming to be a great tape analyst here). We're stipulating that his measurables are close to, if not elite. The narrative on him that I've read and seems valid is that he started off hot and then dealt with a major injury, a followup compensatory injury, and finally got buried behind the deepest RB corps in college ball when he was healthy. During his freshman year, and during the limited carries he had his junior year he played exceptionally well. 

I know... highlights. But check out the very first play. It seems like he has a decent feel for what's going on; no hesitation, quick cut to the hole, maneuvering through traffic, and then showing off that speed: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEDaTV4p28o (again, not claiming to be a scout)

Matt Waldman 2016 RSP: "Marshall can play in any run scheme because he has the speed and quickness to work the spread, but the patience, footwork, and power, to run an I-formation zone or gap scheme." In reference to his draft year season, "Marshall was a different back last year [2015]: He ran harder, ran from more compressed offensive alignments, mostly earned carries between the tackles and from the I-formation, and he faced more defenses that knew he could still bite them in the ### if they played only one safety high. Marshall played 11 games in 2015 and carried 68 times for 350 yards (5.1 ypc) and scored 3 rushing touchdowns." This is just an excerpt (hope you don't mind MW!), the rest is definitely worth a read. MW had him ranked as the 5th best RB, 4th postdraft, from the 2016 class.

If you combine that narrative with his ideal size, elite measurables, and the opportunity in WAS... it seems a stretch to completely rule him out. Dynasty owner here with more hope than optimism... just looking for info/opinions.
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This is exactly my point. I'm not saying he's going to come out this year and lead the backfield in rushing yards... I'm saying long term he is a very intriguing prospect. I do not think the future at RB in Washington is Kelley or Perine. It's just my opinion. If Marshall is going to be anything worth considering, I think the most likely scenario is similar to what we saw last year with the Giants and the eventual emergence of Paul Perkins. As far as redraft goes... I'll probably avoid this backfield all together. If I were to target one RB it would be Perine, just because I do believe he will be given the first shot at starting. And it wouldn't be for anything higher than a Flex position on my team (RB3). And even that I'd be a little hesitant. If I was in dynasty I'd take a long look at Marshall. I wouldn't completely disregard Perine, but I am skeptical. I'd be really singing Marshall's praises if they didn't take any RB. Perine obviously complicates things and it's a very deep backfield. 

 
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The Man With No Name said:
I have Kelley, Marshall and Perine. Hopefully at least one of them will be fantasy relevant this season. Neither of them seem to be high reception rb's going forward. Thompson and Jones are still there too. Kelley seems like the best bet right now, but it could be a complete cluster#### in season.
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Perine could really go either way as far as catching out of the backfield goes.  He had more receptions in college than Ray Rice or Frank Gore did so it's not like there is no hope on that front.

 
Rob Kelley said he has cut his body fat from 18 percent as a rookie to 13 percent.

"Fat Rob" plans to keep the moniker, but it is no longer applicable. Kelley thinks his new body has paid immediate dividends, saying he is "more explosive, faster, getting in and out of cuts a little better." Being in better shape can only help as Kelley tries to hold off fourth-round rookie Samaje Perine.

 
 
Source: ESPN 
Jun 1 - 10:02 AM
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