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Spencer Ware, possibly the new work horse (1 Viewer)

wormburner said:
Reid was unable, or unwilling, to make adjustments to compensate for the lack of defensive scoring.

Today's game may give him another opportunity to be creative, and I hope he is.
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Think about what you just wrote. Tangible evidence that Reid wasn't creative or alter gameplan situationally when he should have.

I don't that lack of imagination changes. Reid has kinda a history of sticking to something even if it's not working -- plenty of eveidence of that in this thread pertaining to Ware's involvement or lack thereof in the passing game, in red zone, etc.

I really don't expect that lack of creativity to change.

 
This site, and every projection on it, continued to push Ware.  I should have stuck with the CBS and Yahoo projections (not the first time this happened).

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
Think about what you just wrote. Tangible evidence that Reid wasn't creative or alter gameplan situationally when he should have.

I don't that lack of imagination changes. Reid has kinda a history of sticking to something even if it's not working -- plenty of eveidence of that in this thread pertaining to Ware's involvement or lack thereof in the passing game, in red zone, etc.

I really don't expect that lack of creativity to change.
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wormburner said:
Maybe.  In week 11, the Chiefs lost to Tampa Bay, at Arrowhead. The defense played just ok.  They shut down the Bucs running game, allowed Winston to have a pretty good game, and gave up 19 points.  KC's DST scored no points in this game.  Reid was unable, or unwilling, to make adjustments to compensate for the lack of defensive scoring.

Today's game may give him another opportunity to be creative, and I hope he is.
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It's deja vu all over again.   :kicksrock:    STC, I was responding to a poster who suggested Reid's creativity is unnecessary when their DST scores.  I'm with you, and most others, that Reid is entirely predictable and unimaginative.

 
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Weebs210 said:
Starting Hyde over him this week.
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I did it the other way last week for my RB3/Flex and it cost me about 6.

Ware seems like a volume play this week. KC can make a strong push into the playoffs and send Denver home possibly and not see them again. 

Im strongly considering him this week. Hyde didn't do much vs Atlanta, he should have at least scooped up,some catches and that wasn't even part of the game plan it seemed. 

 
Ministry of Pain said:
I did it the other way last week for my RB3/Flex and it cost me about 6.

Ware seems like a volume play this week. KC can make a strong push into the playoffs and send Denver home possibly and not see them again. 

Im strongly considering him this week. Hyde didn't do much vs Atlanta, he should have at least scooped up,some catches and that wasn't even part of the game plan it seemed. 
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True. San Fran plays Rams this week though so he should get plenty of opportunities due to game flow. 

 
sho nuff said:
But he couldn't punch it in and has struggled with that much of the year.
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That's true.  I heard on the radio that the Chiefs O-line graded the highest in week 15 for pass protection.  Anybody know how they're ranked in run blocking this year?  Not to be a Ware homer, but when he got stuffed at the GL twice, there was nothing there.

 
ultraviolet said:
This site, and every projection on it, continued to push Ware.  I should have stuck with the CBS and Yahoo projections (not the first time this happened).
Click to expand...
There were a few of us in the forums that bucked the trend as well ... signs were there for those willing to see them and especially after the concussion red flags were all over the place that the aberration was the first game of the season, not the many single digit games that followed. Most made excuses instead of trades. The concussion didn't help matters either and that was the perfect opportunity to get out while you could still get RB1 value. Nothing is 100% predictive of course, but this thread turned into an apology for Ware's single digit games each week. It's Reid, or the oline, or Tyreek Hill. One thing consistent all season was he had one of the easiest RB schedules of any RB. It's only going to get harder next year in that department.

CBS and Yahoo projections are not good predictors of the future. Just a warning as you sounded like that was your strategy going forward LOL.

 
wormburner said:
He was one punch in (make it two) away from double-digit fantasy points and ran hard vs. the Titans.  Despite the mediocrity, he may still be my best flex option this week.
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My aunt was one nut (make it two) away from being my uncle. Starting her this weekend.  She's due. 

.

 
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mnmplayer said:
There were a few of us in the forums that bucked the trend as well ... signs were there for those willing to see them and especially after the concussion red flags were all over the place that the aberration was the first game of the season, not the many single digit games that followed. Most made excuses instead of trades. The concussion didn't help matters either and that was the perfect opportunity to get out while you could still get RB1 value. Nothing is 100% predictive of course, but this thread turned into an apology for Ware's single digit games each week. It's Reid, or the oline, or Tyreek Hill. One thing consistent all season was he had one of the easiest RB schedules of any RB. It's only going to get harder next year in that department.

CBS and Yahoo projections are not good predictors of the future. Just a warning as you sounded like that was your strategy going forward LOL.
Click to expand...
I made it to finals despite Ware.  I was mad because I chickened out of starting Monty or R. Kelley instead.  In truth, he had a solid RB2 game.  I appreciate the data driven approach here -- it helps especially during the draft (when I drafted Ware in the final round). But week-to-week has become a toss up.  Its like forecasting the weather: despite all the great science, outcomes are not predictable. 

I had a Snickers and feel much better. 

Will dance with Mr. Ware in the finals and push Monty to WR2. 

 
I can't bring myself to start Ware over Farrow vs CLE in one league. This has more to do with the CLE matchup and game flow where CLE has not won a game this year so should be a doormat playing from behind again in this one. Farrow is fresh and Ware is worn down and facing a big div rival game where DEN will be up to play their best on D. I don't like this matchup and Ware had trouble last go around vs a seemingly easy run defense. This is not because I think Farrow is more talented than Ware ... no one is making that claim, but game flow and the best RB matchup in the league is more inviting, imho.

Aside from BAL in week 2 (horrible options at RB at that time) and NYG week 12 (also very bad at RB) which was still not horrible, RBs of all shapes and sizes have had their way with CLE. Since week 8 RBs are averaging 31 ppg vs CLE.


 WK


 OPP


ATT


YDS


TD


PTS


1


@Phi


32


132


1


22


2


Bal


25


79


0


13


3


@Mia


22


97


1


26


4


@Wsh


26


145


1


32


5


NE


29


80


1


22


6


@Ten


23


72


1


16


7


@Cin


30


271


2


45


8


NYJ


31


158


3


37


9


Dal


35


148


2


27


10


@Bal


30


109


0


24


11


Pit


28


146


1


33


12


NYG


24


84


0


10


13


BYE


-


-


-


-


14


Cin


34


156


1


28


15


@Buf


31


200


3


43

 
FF Nerd said:
Been rolling with him as a FLEX all season with obviously very mixed results. No reason to stop now.
Click to expand...
Ditto. Starting him over J. Hill.

Assuming A. Reid took notes on what NE just did, KC absolutely MUST run the ball to win.

Game is at home, key division game to put Denver away for good.

I'm hoping the positive TD regression fairy shows up to give everyone a nice little Xmas holiday gift.

 
mnmplayer said:
I can't bring myself to start Ware over Farrow vs CLE in one league. This has more to do with the CLE matchup and game flow where CLE has not won a game this year so should be a doormat playing from behind again in this one. Farrow is fresh and Ware is worn down and facing a big div rival game where DEN will be up to play their best on D. I don't like this matchup and Ware had trouble last go around vs a seemingly easy run defense. This is not because I think Farrow is more talented than Ware ... no one is making that claim, but game flow and the best RB matchup in the league is more inviting, imho.

Aside from BAL in week 2 (horrible options at RB at that time) and NYG week 12 (also very bad at RB) which was still not horrible, RBs of all shapes and sizes have had their way with CLE. Since week 8 RBs are averaging 31 ppg vs CLE.


 WK


 OPP


ATT


YDS


TD


PTS


1


@Phi


32


132


1


22


2


Bal


25


79


0


13


3


@Mia


22


97


1


26


4


@Wsh


26


145


1


32


5


NE


29


80


1


22


6


@Ten


23


72


1


16


7


@Cin


30


271


2


45


8


NYJ


31


158


3


37


9


Dal


35


148


2


27


10


@Bal


30


109


0


24


11


Pit


28


146


1


33


12


NYG


24


84


0


10


13


BYE


-


-


-


-


14


Cin


34


156


1


28


15


@Buf


31


200


3


43
Click to expand...
I have Farrow as an option as well.

What about the return of Melvin Gordon? 

 
mnmplayer said:
There were a few of us in the forums that bucked the trend as well ... signs were there for those willing to see them and especially after the concussion red flags were all over the place that the aberration was the first game of the season, not the many single digit games that followed. Most made excuses instead of trades. The concussion didn't help matters either and that was the perfect opportunity to get out while you could still get RB1 value. Nothing is 100% predictive of course, but this thread turned into an apology for Ware's single digit games each week. It's Reid, or the oline, or Tyreek Hill. One thing consistent all season was he had one of the easiest RB schedules of any RB. It's only going to get harder next year in that department.

CBS and Yahoo projections are not good predictors of the future. Just a warning as you sounded like that was your strategy going forward LOL.
Click to expand...
Disclosure:  Ware owner in a 12 team standard scoring league.  

I'm sorry, but I don't see how you were ever getting trade offers equal to RB1 value.  At the time he was scoring at a RB1 level, he had the lingering "Charles is gonna return any week" stigmata looming over him, so non-Ware owners were not willing to give up RB1 value for him.  Then, Charles did not go on IR until week 8 IIRC which ironically coincides with when he had the downturn in points.  Maybe a better illustration would be to ask this forum what they were able to trade Ware for, or were offered for Ware.  Personally, the best offer I got was Greg Olsen.  A trade that would have sank my team for lack of RBs.  

As far as the continued high rankings, his sheer volume is what keeps his ECR high.  My only "problems" with the rankings are these things:

1.) his weighted rushing TD % should never be at .4-.5 (unless against Cleveland, lol).  It should probably be .3;

2.) the weighted receiving TD % should never be above .1; and

3.)  # of receptions shouldn't be above 3.

I'm okay with the carries and ypc though and I'm fine getting high RB2 value out of him with RB1 upside dependent on TDs.

 
ultraviolet said:
I have Farrow as an option as well.

What about the return of Melvin Gordon? 
Click to expand...
Well that changes things ... I'll have to take a closer look at his status as we approach the end of the week, of course. As far as I know he hasn't stepped on the practice field yet so I am assuming he is not playing.

 
chad in Indy said:
Disclosure:  Ware owner in a 12 team standard scoring league.  

I'm sorry, but I don't see how you were ever getting trade offers equal to RB1 value.  At the time he was scoring at a RB1 level, he had the lingering "Charles is gonna return any week" stigmata looming over him, so non-Ware owners were not willing to give up RB1 value for him.  Then, Charles did not go on IR until week 8 IIRC which ironically coincides with when he had the downturn in points.  Maybe a better illustration would be to ask this forum what they were able to trade Ware for, or were offered for Ware.  Personally, the best offer I got was Greg Olsen.  A trade that would have sank my team for lack of RBs.  

As far as the continued high rankings, his sheer volume is what keeps his ECR high.  My only "problems" with the rankings are these things:

1.) his weighted rushing TD % should never be at .4-.5 (unless against Cleveland, lol).  It should probably be .3;

2.) the weighted receiving TD % should never be above .1; and

3.)  # of receptions shouldn't be above 3.

I'm okay with the carries and ypc though and I'm fine getting high RB2 value out of him with RB1 upside dependent on TDs.
Click to expand...
There was a window, and if you look back in this thread it was the day Charles went to see Dr. Andrews ... (within hours I posted to pickup West on this news). It was widely expected that Ware would be the RB in KC going forward. This site (and others) routinely put him as a top5 or at least top12 RB week to week. You might also recall Ware had a concussion in Indy, the following week and many were still saying he was a no brainer RB1 even after the concussion, as he only missed one game and Charles was gone and West was a scrub. He didn't come back until the following week and was setup with a nice schedule going forward. There was about a 2 week window. It actually came up in a conversation in this thread and I said that he would either dive in value if he missed another game from the concussion, or Ware's value would spike back up if he played. I think you still had a chance to sell then.

The window opportunity wasn't long as you say, but it was there for 2-3 weeks ... I have made trades in smaller windows, like this trade I posted in real time when Booker had just assumed the starting role for C.J. Anderson. The initial hype was very high and Booker was being touted by most sites as a no brainer top5 back for ROS.

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/741003-dynasty-redraft-rb-devontae-booker-broncos/?do=findComment&comment=19550714

Looking back today, it looks like a crazy deal in my favor, but at the time it was a very fair offer and I wasn't even sure I got the better end of the deal. You have to pounce while the iron is hot as they say.

 
mnmplayer said:
There was a window, and if you look back in this thread it was the day Charles went to see Dr. Andrews ... (within hours I posted to pickup West on this news). It was widely expected that Ware would be the RB in KC going forward. This site (and others) routinely put him as a top5 or at least top12 RB week to week. You might also recall Ware had a concussion in Indy, the following week and many were still saying he was a no brainer RB1 even after the concussion, as he only missed one game and Charles was gone and West was a scrub. He didn't come back until the following week and was setup with a nice schedule going forward. There was about a 2 week window. It actually came up in a conversation in this thread and I said that he would either dive in value if he missed another game from the concussion, or Ware's value would spike back up if he played. I think you still had a chance to sell then.

The window opportunity wasn't long as you say, but it was there for 2-3 weeks ... I have made trades in smaller windows, like this trade I posted in real time when Booker had just assumed the starting role for C.J. Anderson. The initial hype was very high and Booker was being touted by most sites as a no brainer top5 back for ROS.

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/741003-dynasty-redraft-rb-devontae-booker-broncos/?do=findComment&comment=19550714

Looking back today, it looks like a crazy deal in my favor, but at the time it was a very fair offer and I wasn't even sure I got the better end of the deal. You have to pounce while the iron is hot as they say.
Click to expand...
I can only attest to leagues I play in.  There was not a 2-3 week window, or even a 3 hour window where I could get a RB1 trade out of Ware in my leagues.  This is why I specifically stated the best offer I could get was Olsen.  Forgive me if I didn't have a league member trying to hit 00 on the roulette wheel like you got with Booker for OBJ (I couldn't even get Alshon Jeffrey for Booker).  I agree that people would have fared well to trade him if they could get RB1 value.  I could not.  But your statement came across as an over-generalization that there were RB1 offers in all leagues to be had for Ware.  This is why I would like to see who else actually tried or received offers for Ware.  

 
chad in Indy said:
I can only attest to leagues I play in.  There was not a 2-3 week window, or even a 3 hour window where I could get a RB1 trade out of Ware in my leagues.  This is why I specifically stated the best offer I could get was Olsen.  Forgive me if I didn't have a league member trying to hit 00 on the roulette wheel like you got with Booker for OBJ (I couldn't even get Alshon Jeffrey for Booker).  I agree that people would have fared well to trade him if they could get RB1 value.  I could not.  But your statement came across as an over-generalization that there were RB1 offers in all leagues to be had for Ware.  This is why I would like to see who else actually tried or received offers for Ware.  
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OK forget specifics like RB1. Would you say Ware's value has dropped since mid-season or gone up? Can anyone really talk about anything but generalities on this public board? Maybe you couldn't get RB1 value! LOL Nobody is really saying that YOU, "chad in Indy" could have got that value personally, but there were many in this thread touting him as top5 talent! A certain milk delivery boy went so far as naming him top15 dynasty talent! Can we all agree that if you had traded Ware to any of those fan boys in here who valued Ware this high you would not be sitting pretty today?

 
mnmplayer said:
OK forget specifics like RB1. Would you say Ware's value has dropped since mid-season or gone up? Can anyone really talk about anything but generalities on this public board? Maybe you couldn't get RB1 value! LOL Nobody is really saying that YOU, "chad in Indy" could have got that value personally, but there were many in this thread touting him as top5 talent! A certain milk delivery boy went so far as naming him top15 dynasty talent! Can we all agree that if you had traded Ware to any of those fan boys in here who valued Ware this high you would not be sitting pretty today?
Click to expand...
Fair enough. Back on point, I also have Farrow as an option, but he didn't do squat w his opportunity last week and seems a boom/bust option which is scary for championship week. Ware would seem to have a lot safer floor w a similar ceiling to Farrow. The hard part about the the stats against Cleveland lately is Cleveland has played against some strong rushing teams w clear cut #1 RB. Zeke, Bell, McCoy, and Hill.  That's a big leap in talent down to the likes of Farrow splitting reps.

I think I'd rather take my guaranteed 7-9 points from Ware w maybe a TD or long reception on top. I can't risk 3 or 4 points from Farrow. 

 
chad in Indy said:
Fair enough. Back on point, I also have Farrow as an option, but he didn't do squat w his opportunity last week and seems a boom/bust option which is scary for championship week. Ware would seem to have a lot safer floor w a similar ceiling to Farrow. The hard part about the the stats against Cleveland lately is Cleveland has played against some strong rushing teams w clear cut #1 RB. Zeke, Bell, McCoy, and Hill.  That's a big leap in talent down to the likes of Farrow splitting reps.

I think I'd rather take my guaranteed 7-9 points from Ware w maybe a TD or long reception on top. I can't risk 3 or 4 points from Farrow. 
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I agree. If you are a big favorite, Ware might be a smarter play, but I have been beat many times playing it safe, and this is the final week for me in my leagues, so I am playing to score the most points. If Farrow is on my bench scoring even half the 31 ppg avg CLE is giving up ... and I lose because Ware gets 8-9 points I would feel bad as well. We don't have a big sample size with Farrow, but we do for CLE Rush Defense so even if he is just a JAG he has a good opp to score with how many TDs CLE has given up. Ware's chances to score are not as good imo. Think of it this way ... if CLE were a RB on your roster and scored 31 ppg since week 8 would you start him? I realize that is total points, but even half of that is good.

 
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I've been riding Ware all year in PPR with bell. Bloom has Rob Kelly slightly higher than Ware. What would you do, Ware or Rob Kelly? Ughhhh championship week!

 
ant525i said:
I've been riding Ware all year in PPR with bell. Bloom has Rob Kelly slightly higher than Ware. What would you do, Ware or Rob Kelly? Ughhhh championship week!
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I have the same decision in one of my leagues and went with Kelley.

Kelley's pass catching usage is trending positively,  and I like the matchup. DEN isn't a terrible matchup for RBs, but Ware has had a pretty low ceiling for several weeks now and it seems as if he'll need a TD to give you anything more than 10-12pts in a PPR.

At least we know Kelley will get the GL looks and is much less likely to get vultured than Ware has been with RZ plays to Hill and the occasional risk of West sniping a TD while he gives Ware a breather. I'm actually pretty confident in Kelley as a top 15RB this week, even in PPR formats. 

 
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branch0095 said:
I have the same decision in one of my leagues and went with Kelley.

Kelley's pass catching usage is trending positively,  and I like the matchup. DEN isn't a terrible matchup for RBs, but Ware has had a pretty low ceiling for several weeks now and it seems as if he'll need a TD to give you anything more than 10-12pts in a PPR.

At least we know Kelley will get the GL looks and is much less likely to get vultured than Ware has been with RZ plays to Hill and the occasional risk of West sniping a TD while he gives Ware a breather. I'm actually pretty confident in Kelley as a top 15RB this week, even in PPR formats. 
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Of course as soon as a say this, the Redskins score 4 rushing TDs and Kelley gets none of them.  I'm a genius!! LOL 

 
What do we think Ware does tonight? I'm nursing a 17.3 pt lead and face Zeke tomorrow. I still have Kelce tonight and Ware OR Tyreek. PPR. Figure Ware has a better floor with volume and Tyreek a better explosive ceiling. He killed Denver in their last meeting which means they'll probably key on him. And yet he disappeared last week. Need a big lead going in against Zeke.

 
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